敘利亞叛軍領袖的勝利宣言向伊朗傳達了訊息，也向特朗普和以色列傳達了訊息

Recently CNN News on-line reported the following:

Syrian rebel leader’s victory speech holds a message for Iran – and for Trump and Israel too

Analysis by Nic Robertson

Updated Sun, December 8, 2024 at 11:10 p.m. PST·3 min read

Abu Mohammad al-Jolani’s road to Damascus has been long. He has talked openly about his change along the way. From young al Qaeda fighter two decades ago, to rebel commander espousing sectarian tolerance.

It’s a journey along which he has had plenty of time to plan where and how he would mark his arrival, and to fine-tune his narrative – his message for those who put him in power, those who might bring him down, and others who can keep him in power.

It is no surprise that the Islamist rebel chose Damascus’s venerated Umayyad Mosque – not a TV studio, nor newly absented presidential palace, but a place of towering religious significance, which at 1,300 years old is one of the world’s most ancient mosques – to deliver that message.

“This victory, my brothers, is a victory for the entire Islamic nation,” he told his tiny entourage, who stumbled behind him against the backdrop of the mosque’s distinctive black and white stone splendor.

It was a message to all those who had taken him to power, and propelled his Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) fighters at startling speed across Syria to oust President Bashir al-Assad.

It was a message too to the newly liberated Syrians. “This victory, my brothers, by the grace of God Almighty (follows) the sacrifices of the martyrs, the widows, and the orphans. This victory, my brothers, has come through the suffering of those who endured imprisonment,” he said.

In a country where the God you chose, and how you pray, can define your class, limit your aspirations and pit you against your neighbor, Jolani sent a very clear signal in the Umayyad Mosque. He is a Sunni Muslim, part of Syria’s majority. Assad was an Alawite. There are Christians, Druze, Shia Muslims, Ismailis and more.

Yet the words he chose appeared intended to break those old bounds. “This new triumph, my brothers, marks a new chapter in the history of the region, a history fraught with dangers (that left) Syria as a playground for Iranian ambitions, spreading sectarianism, stirring corruption,” he said.

Singling Iran out appears to be a message to Tehran’s theocracy – that their meddling is over, their easy land access to their mega proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon is over, their support for Syrian Hezbollah is over, and gone too is the home they once had for Iran’s weapons stockpiles.

But it is a message Jolani will know is being heard in Tel Aviv and Washington, where he is considered to be a member of a proscribed terrorist organisation with a $10 million dollar bounty on his head. A message that says to them, ‘your interests are understood in the new Syria,’ and an understanding on his part that these are the powers capable of bringing him down.

Jolani has been at pains on his race to Damascus to make sure US President Joe Biden and even President-elect Donald Trump know his intent. It is no coincidence that he picked a US TV network, CNN, and not an Arab one, for a key interview in the days before he ousted Assad, claiming he had parted company from other jihadists because of their brutal tactics.

Speaking a few hours later, Biden said he had heard Jolani “saying the right things,” but insisted the rebel leader be judged by his actions.

Jolani’s message was also tuned for regional powers he’ll need to keep onside, promising to clean shop. “Syria is being purified,” he said, referring to the country’s regional reputation as a narco-state, saying Assad’s Syria had “become the world’s leading source of Captagon,” an amphetamine-type drug, and criminality through the region.

Jolani’s mosque speech was about arrival and survival. It’s his actions, though, that will secure the latter.

Translation

敘利亞叛軍領袖的勝利宣言向伊朗傳達了訊息，也向特朗普和以色列傳達了訊息

Abu Mohammad al-Jolani (喬拉尼) 通往大馬士革的道路是的漫長是的。他一直公開談論自己的改變。從二十年前的年輕基地組織戰士，到支持宗派寬容的叛軍指揮官。

在這段旅程中，他有充足的時間來計劃他將在哪裡以, 及如何紀念他的到來，並微調他的敘述 - 傳達訊息向那些讓他到來掌權的人、那些可能令他下台的人, 以及可以令他繼續掌權的人。

毫不奇怪的是，這伊斯蘭叛亂者選擇了大馬士革受人尊敬的Umayyad清真寺 - 不是電視演播室，也不是新近被空置的總統府，而是一個具有崇高宗教意義的地方，它擁有1300年的歷史，是世界上最古老的清真寺之一 - 來傳遞這一信息。

他告訴他的小隨從說:「我的兄弟們，這場勝利是整個伊斯蘭國家的勝利」，他們在清真寺獨特的黑白石輝煌背景下跌跌撞撞地跟在他身後。

這是向所有那些讓他上台並推動他的沙姆解放組織 (HTS) 戰士以驚人的速度穿越敘利亞推翻總統阿薩德的人發出的信息。

這也是向新解放的敘利亞人傳遞的訊息。 他說:「兄弟們，這場勝利是全能上帝的恩典，是在殉道者、寡婦和孤兒的犧牲(之後)取得的。兄弟們，這場勝利是透過那些遭受監禁的人們的痛苦而取得的」。

在一個你選擇的上帝以及你的祈禱方式, 就可以被定義你的階層、限制你的願望, 並使你與鄰居對抗的國家裡，Jolani在Umayyad清真寺發出了一個非常明確的信號。他是遜尼派穆斯林，是敘利亞多數派的一部分。阿薩德是阿拉維派。這裡有基督徒、德魯茲派、什葉派穆斯林、伊斯瑪儀派等等。

然而他選擇的字詞彙似乎是為了打破這些舊的界線。他說：“兄弟們，這一新的勝利標誌著該地區歷史的新篇章，這段歷史充滿了危險，(致使)敘利亞成為伊朗野心、傳播宗派主義、煽動腐敗的遊樂場。”

將伊朗單獨挑出來似乎是向德黑蘭神權政治發出的一個信息 - 他們的干預已經結束，他們在黎巴嫩的超級代理人真主黨的便利陸路通道已經完了，他們對敘利亞真主黨的支持也結束了，他們曾經擁有的伊朗的武器庫存基地也消失了。

但Jolani知道，這樣的訊息特拉維夫和華盛頓亦正在聽到，他被認為是屬於受到禁止的恐怖組織的成員，捕拿懸賞金額為 1000 萬美元。向他們傳達的訊息是，“新敘利亞理解你們的利益”，而他也明白，這些力量有能力打倒他。

Jolani在奔向大馬士革的馳逐中一直煞費苦心，以確保美國總統拜登，甚至當選總統特朗普知道他的意圖。在推翻阿薩德之前的幾天裡，他選擇美國電視網 CNN（而非阿拉伯電視網）接受一次重要採訪，這並非巧合，聲稱他因其他聖戰士的殘酷策略而與他們分道揚鑣。

幾個小時後，拜登表示，他聽到Jolani“說出了正確的話”，但堅稱要根據他的行動來評判叛軍領導人。

Jolani的訊息也針對他需要繼續獲得支持的區域大國，承諾重整工作。 他說:“敘利亞正在被淨化”; 他指的是該國在該地區作成為毒品國家的名堂，並稱阿薩德領導下的敘利亞已“成為世界上Captagon 的主要來源” 它是安非他明類藥物，並成為該地區犯罪活動的主要源頭。

Jolani的清真寺演講是關於他的到來和往後生存。不過，他的生存将是取决於他將會做出的事。

              So, Jolani has sent out a message for those who put him in power, those who might bring him down, and others who can keep him in power. Jolani’s mosque speech is about his arrival and survival, apparently it is his next steps that will secure his survival. He has made a calculated and important speech.

Note:

1. Fenethylline (BAN, USAN) or fenetylline (INN) is a codrug of amphetamine and theophylline and so a mutual prodrug of both. The drug is marketed for use as a psychostimulant under the brand names Captagon, Biocapton, and Fitton. The name "Captagon" is often used generically to describe illicitly-produced fenetylline. (Wikipedia)