俄羅斯戰時經濟困境導致與中國的鐵路貿易放緩 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Russia’s Wartime Economic Woes Slow Railway Trade with China (2/2)

Bloomberg News

Sun, December 22, 2024 at 8:00 p.m. PST·4 min read

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Putin in February outlined plans to expand annual shipping capacity on the network, though the current economic fissures are creating hurdles for the national rail carrier.

Russian Railways freight volume declined 5.2% year-on-year through November, according to MMI Research.

The company is now considering cutting its total investment program through 2030 by a third, to 7.9 trillion rubles ($77 billion), Kommersant newspaper reported last month, adding that the economy ministry has proposed an even sharper reduction. The ministry also suggested cutting spending on the expansion of the Eastern Polygon to about 15% of what was originally proposed, the newspaper said, though its report wasn’t officially confirmed.

The economy ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Slower Shipments

Russia’s economic troubles and underinvestment in Russian Railways are starting to have knock-on effects on commodity shipments to the east.

Several coal miners aren’t able to ship as originally intended due to railway bottlenecks, executives at the companies said, asking not to be identified as the information is sensitive. The government held a meeting in the coal-rich Kusbass region in western Siberia this month to discuss the industry’s issues.

United Co. Rusal International PJSC, the biggest aluminum producer outside of China, has built up several hundred thousand tons of stock at its aluminum smelters in Siberia as limited railway capacity crimps its ability to ship the metal in a timely manner, people familiar with the situation said.

Before 2022, Rusal — which isn’t subject to sanctions by the US and its Group of Seven allies — was selling the metal in China only occasionally. But after Russia was hit by multiple penalties, the company rerouted a large portion of its exports to Asia from Europe and other markets. It now sells more than a million tons, or about a third of its annual output, in China.

A Rusal spokesperson declined to comment.

Russian Railways “needs to be improved, partly through investments” that are declining, said Dmitry Polevoy, investment director at Moscow-based Astra Asset Management. “In general, the railway and loading are always a mirror of what is happening in the economy.”

Translation

俄羅斯戰時經濟困境導致與中國的鐵路貿易放緩 (2/2)

（繼續）

普京在二月概述了擴大該網絡年度運輸能力的計劃，儘管當前的經濟裂縫給國家鐵路運輸公司帶來了障礙。

根據 MMI Research 的數據，截至 11 月，與去年同期相比，，俄羅斯鐵路貨運量年減 5.2%。

根據《生意人報》上個月報道，鐵路運輸公司目前正在考慮將其到2030 年的總投資計劃削減三分之一，至7.9 兆盧布（770 億美元），並補充說經濟部已提議更大幅削減。該報稱，該部還建議將東部多邊形擴建的支出削減至最初提議的 15% 左右，但其報告尚未得到官方證實。

經濟部沒有回應置評請求。

出貨速度放緩 

俄羅斯的經濟困境和俄羅斯鐵路投資不足開始對東部的大宗商品運輸產生連鎖反應。

有些公司高層表示，由於鐵路瓶頸，一些煤礦公司無法按原計劃發貨, 由於資訊敏感，要求不透露姓名。政府本月在西西伯利亞煤炭資源豐富的Kusbass地區召開會議，討論該行業的問題。

知情人士稱，由於鐵路運力有限，限制了其及時運輸金屬的能力，中國以外最大的鋁生產商俄羅斯鋁業聯合公司 (United Co. Rusal International PJSC) 在西伯利亞的鋁冶煉廠積累了數十萬噸庫存。

2022 年之前，Rusal (俄鋁) 不受美國及其七國集團盟友的制裁, 只是偶爾在中國出售這種金屬。但在俄羅斯受到多重處罰後，該公司將大部分出口到歐洲和其他市場改至亞洲。目前，該公司在中國的銷售量超過一百萬噸，約佔其年產量的三分之一。

俄鋁發言人拒絕置評。

總部位於莫斯科的Astra資產管理公司的投資總監Dmitry Polevoy表示，俄羅斯鐵路「需要改善，部分是透過投資  (已不斷在減少中)」。 「總的來說，鐵路和裝載始終是經濟狀況的一面鏡子」。

              So, Russia faces increasing difficulty in shipping commodities to China through its vast eastern rail network due to the war with Ukraine and sanctions by western countries. Apparently Russian Railways needs to be improved, but there is no money for it under a wartime economy. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a war of attrition for both parties.

Note:

1. Kommersant (Russian: Коммерсантъ, The Businessman or Commerce Man, often shortened to Ъ) (生意人報) is a nationally distributed daily newspaper published in Russia mostly devoted to politics and business. It is widely considered to be one of Russia's three main business dailies (together with Vedomosti and RBK Daily). (Wikipedia)

2. United Company Rusal (Russian: МКПАО «ОК РУСАЛ») (俄鋁) is the world's second largest aluminum company by primary production output (as of 2016). It was the largest until overtaken by China Hongqiao Group in 2015. (Wikipedia)