2024年8月20日 星期二

Growing Russian threat leads European countries to revert to conscription

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

まるロシアの脅威、欧州各国徴兵制回帰

2024.07.27 Sat posted at 13:00 JST

 Tweet

(CNN) ロシアの脅威が高まる中、複数の欧州諸国は防衛力強化を目的とした政策の一環として兵役義務を再導入または拡大した。

30年間米陸軍将校めた外交政策研究所のユーラシア研究責任者、ロバート・ハミルトン「戦争への動員方法軍備生産方法、新兵募集訓練方法調整しなければならない可能性があるという認識りつつあるべた

北大西洋条約機構(NATO)欧州連合軍最高司令官めたウェズリー・クラーク退役将官ロシアのプーチン大統領ついにウクライナで公然武力衝突」、ソビエト帝国再建追求したことで、欧州では大規模戦争発生するリスクがまっていると

同氏これはNATOにとって、防衛再構築しなければならないという非常切迫した警告」であり、再構築みには徴兵まれると指摘した

徴兵制復活たな現実浮りに

冷戦終結後、多くの欧州諸国徴兵制停止したが、近年、一部国、特にスカンジナビア諸国やバルト三国ではロシアの脅威理由として徴兵制復活させている。入隊めば罰金せられたり、禁錮されたりするもある

ノルウェーは4月、野心的長期計画発表したこの計画では、国防衛予算をほぼ2倍増額、徴兵された兵士、従業員、予備役2万人以上軍隊えるとしている

ストーレ首相「新たな安全保障環境において目的にかなう防衛必要べた

ノルウェーでは徴兵義務付けられており、2015年にはNATO加盟国としてめて男女条件徴兵した

「大きな精神的転換」

徴兵制する議論、現在兵役めていない欧州諸国でもわれている。英国保守党総選挙勝利した場合兵役義務導入するとのえをしていた

おそらくくべき変革、第2次世界大戦終結以来、軍国化嫌悪してきたドイツできているドイツは冷戦以降初めて、欧州紛争勃発した場合計画更新。ピストリウス国防相6月、新たな志願兵制提案、「29年までに戦争えなければならないえた

戦略国際問題研究所欧州・ロシア・ユーラシアプログラムの客員研究員シーン・モナハン「議論がりをせているそしてそれが第一歩」「これは一夜にしてこるものではなく、大きな精神的転換指摘する

もが招集じる覚悟ができているわけではない。例えばリトアニア全国学生連盟会長、学生兵役する意見はさまざまだと

リトアニアは15年「地政学的状況変化」により兵役義務復活させて以来、毎年18~26歳のリトアニア人約3500~4000人にわたり入隊している

会長によると、学生たちはウクライナに物資みをめた。「必ずしも徴兵じてではないが、若者より積極的になろうとする方向へと変化している

徴兵制一部では依然として不人気話題モナハンによると、NATO月以内30万人動員さらに月以内50万人動員するというたな目標達成するのに苦戦している

大規模戦略的予備役モデル

えられる解決策より機動力のある近代的軍隊

NATO最新加盟国つであるフィンランドは、90万人以上予備役動員する能力があり、28万人軍人必要じて即座対応できる態勢にある。一方平時のフィンランド国防軍文官めて約1万3000人しか雇用していない

ノルウェーと、NATO最新加盟国であるスウェーデンも同様のモデルを採用しておりフィンランドほどではないが両国とも相当数予備役維持している

ノルウェーとじく男女平等徴兵制くスウェーデンは24年、約7000人招集したスウェーデンによると、25年にはその8000人やすという

Translation

(CNN) As the Russian threat grew, several European countries had reintroduced or expanded mandatory military service as part of policies aimed at strengthening their defenses.

Robert Hamilton, director of Eurasian studies at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, who served as a U.S. Army officer for 30 years said "We're coming to the realization that we may have to adjust how we mobilize for war, how we produce weapons, how we recruit and train new soldiers."

Retired General Wesley Clark, who served as NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, said the risk of a major war in Europe had increased as Russian President Vladimir Putin "finally resorted to open conflict in Ukraine" and pursued rebuilding the Soviet empire.

He said, "This is a very urgent wake-up call for NATO that they have to rebuild their defenses," noting that the rebuilding effort will include conscription.

Reinstating conscription highlighting new reality

After the end of the Cold War, many European countries abolished conscription, but in recent years some countries, especially Scandinavian and Baltic states, had reinstated conscription, mainly due to the Russian threat. In some countries, refusing to enlist could lead to fines or even imprisonment.

Norway unveiled an ambitious long-term plan in April, which called for nearly doubling the country's defense budget and adding more than 20,000 conscripted soldiers, employees and reservists to the armed forces.

Prime Minister Støre said, " New security environment requires fit-for-purpose defense."

Conscription was compulsory in Norway, and in 2015 it became the first NATO member state to conscript men and women on equal terms.

 "A major mental shift"

Conscription debates were also taking place in other European countries that did not currently require military service. The UK's Conservative Party had indicated it would introduce compulsory military service if it won the general election.

Perhaps the most surprising change was coming from Germany, which had shied away from militarization since the end of World War II. For the first time since the Cold War, Germany had updated its plans for a European conflict. Defence Minister Pistorius proposed a new volunteer army in June, saying "we need to be ready for war by 2029."

"The discussion is seen picking up steam, and that's the first step," said Sean Monahan, a visiting fellow in the Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "This is not something that happen overnight, it's a big mental shift."

Not everyone was ready to serve. For example, the president of the Lithuanian National Union of Students said there were mixed opinions about military service among students.

Since Lithuania reinstated compulsory military service in 2015 due to "changing geopolitical circumstances," about 3,500 to 4,000 Lithuanians aged 18 to 26 enlisted for nine months each year.

According to the former president, students had started an initiative to send supplies to Ukraine. "It's not necessarily through conscription, but the mindset of young people is changing towards more proactive."

Conscription remained an unpopular topic in some countries. Monahan said NATO was struggling to meet its new goal of mobilizing 300,000 men within one month and another 500,000 within six months.

A large strategic reserve model

A possible solution was a more mobile and modern military.

Finland, one of NATO's newest members, had the capacity to mobilize more than 900,000 reservists and 280,000 military personnel ready to respond at any time if needed. Meanwhile, the Finnish Defense Forces in peacetime employed only about 13,000 people, including civilian personnel.

Norway and Sweden, NATO's newest member, had adopted a similar model, and both maintain significant reserves, though not as large as Finland's.

Sweden, which had equal conscription for men and women like Norway, called up about 7,000 in 2014. According to the Swedish military, that number would be increased to 8,000 by 2025.

              So, as the Russian threat grows, several European countries have reintroduced or expanded mandatory military service as part of policies aimed at strengthening their defenses. Conscription debates are also taking place in other European countries that do not currently require military service. Obviously, in Europe, there is major mental shift in perceiving how safe the world is becoming. The world  peace we have been enjoying since late 1945 is fading as some “ambitious” politicians are trying to rewrite the world order that came into shape following the end of  WWII.

沒有留言:

張貼留言