哈馬斯和法塔赫同意組成政府。這意味著什麼？ (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News picked up the following:

Hamas and Fatah agree to form a government. What does it mean and who are these Palestinian groups? (2/2)

Jack Jeffery

Tue, July 23, 2024 at 11:35 a.m. PDT·4 min read

The Associated Press

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Tahani Mustafa, an analyst with the Crisis Group, an international think tank, doubts that the Beijing agreement will mark a turning point.

“A lot of this was just a PR stunt,” Mustafa said, adding that given the current situation, both factions had little to lose by signing it.

Israel says no to “Hamastan” and ”Fatahstan"

Israel denounced the deal hours after it was signed, and has repeatedly said Hamas will have no involvement in the running of Gaza after the war. The U.S. and other Western countries have previously refused to accept any Palestinian government that includes Hamas unless it expressly recognizes Israel.

The joint declaration comes at a sensitive time in the 10-month war; Israel and Hamas are weighing an internationally backed cease-fire proposal that would wind down the war and free dozens of Israeli hostages held by Hamas. Who will run Gaza after the war remains one of the thorniest unresolved issues in the negotiations in Cairo.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he doesn't want the Palestinian Authority to participate in the future running of Gaza either.

“I am not prepared to switch from Hamastan to Fatahstan,” Netanyahu announced in April, accusing both group's of posing security threats to Israel.

Netanyahu’s government and Israel’s parliament have rejected the creation of a Palestinian state. Israel has not presented a cohesive vision for running post-war Gaza, raising the possibility of prolonged Israeli military control over the territory.

Beijing brokering peace in the Middle East

Perhaps the most significant thing about the deal was the location and the broker: China.

Beijing has sought to position itself as a mediator in the region, despite not being part of the formal peace negotiations between Israel and Hamas. The move is widely seen as part of Xi Jinping's efforts to increase Beijing's global stature and act as a counterweight to Western influence.

The declaration in Beijing comes a year after China brokered a deal to normalize ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran after years of severed relations.

“If the Palestinian factions (especially Hamas and Fatah) are able to put into practice the reconciliation stated in the Beijing Declaration, then China’s diplomatic influence in the Middle East will surely be boosted," James Char, a research fellow at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said in an email.

Translation

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國際智庫危機組織分析師 Tahani Mustafa 懷疑北京協議是否會標誌著一個轉捩點。

Mustafa說：「這在很大程度上只是公關噱頭」。他補充說，鑑於目前的情況，簽署該協議對兩派都沒有什麼損失。

以色列對「哈馬斯坦」和「法塔赫斯坦」說不。

以色列在協議簽署數小時後予以譴責，一再表示哈馬斯不會參與戰後加沙的管理。美國和其他西方國家先前曾拒絕接受包括哈馬斯在內的任何巴勒斯坦政府，除非它明確承認以色列。

該聯合聲明是在長達 10 個月的戰爭的敏感時刻發表的；以色列和哈馬斯正在考慮一項國際支持的停火提議，該提議將結束戰爭並釋放哈馬斯扣押的數十名以色列人質。戰後誰將管理加沙仍然是開羅談判中最棘手的懸而未決的問題之一。

以色列總理內塔尼亞胡表示，他也不希望巴勒斯坦權力機構參與加沙的未來管理。

內塔尼亞胡四月宣布： “我不准備從哈馬斯坦轉向法塔赫斯坦” ，並指責這兩個組織對以色列構成安全威脅。

內塔尼亞胡政府和以色列議會拒絕建立巴勒斯坦國。以色列尚未提出管理戰後加沙的統一願景，這增加了以色列對該領土長期軍事控制的可能性。

北京斡旋中東和平

也許這協議最重要的是地點和經紀人：中國。

儘管沒有參與以色列和哈馬斯之間的正式和平談判，但北京一直試圖將自己定位為該地區的調解者。此舉被廣泛視為習近平提高北京全球地位並制衡西方影響力的努力的一部分。

在北京發表這項聲明的一年前，中國促成了沙地阿拉伯和伊朗關係正常化的協議，該協議結束了多年的斷絕關係。

新加坡南洋理工大學國防與戰略研究所研究員James Char在一電郵中說:「如果巴勒斯坦各派（特別是哈馬斯和法塔赫）能夠落實《北京宣言》中提出的和解，那麼中國在中東的外交影響力必將得到提升」。

              So, in Beijing Palestinian factions including Hamas and Fatah signed a declaration in China vowing to form a unity government to govern the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip following the end of the Israel-Hamas war. Israel has already said no to “Hamastan” and” Fatahstan”.  Could this be just a PR stunt?  Given the current situation, both factions had little to lose in signing it while China has much to gain.