期待已久的中國政策更新並未出現重大轉變 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Long-awaited Chinese policy update presents no major shift (2/2)

Reuters

Updated Sun, July 21, 2024 at 5:52 a.m. PDT·4 min read

(continue)

STATE-LED INNOVATION AND GROWTH

Gary Ng, Asia-Pacific senior economist at Natixis, said that the plenum painted a future of "state-led economic growth, innovation and security".

"An all-in bet on manufacturing and new productive forces may not be adequate as it is full of uncertainties," Ng said.

The document also reiterated that markets will play a decisive role in resource allocation, that the government will work on legislation to improve conditions for the private sector, and flagged fiscal and financial reforms.

Other policy targets included boosting affordable housing, improving job opportunities for young people and the standard of living for the elderly.

Like most documents of this kind, it did not say how Chinese leaders intended to reach those goals, many of which would require policies that are contradictory in nature, as Party officials acknowledged on Friday.

Beijing has never explained, for instance, how to get consumers to spend more when resources flow primarily to producers and infrastructure, or how it plans to stimulate growth, while curbing debt.

At a plenum in 2013, Beijing launched a policy agenda that included most of the goals listed in Sunday's document, but also ambitions to liberalise financial markets and make domestic consumption a more prominent driver of growth.

A capital outflows scare in 2015 halted many of these plans.

Many analysts say national security considerations have pushed China in the opposite direction in recent years, tightening control over large parts of the economy and carrying out regulatory crackdowns on industries, including tech and finance.

TAX CHANGES

One area where analysts expect to see new measures soon is local government finances, as policymakers look to ease concerns over municipal debt of more than $13 trillion that poses risks to financial institutions and economic growth.

In 2023, local governments' fiscal revenues accounted for 54% of the nation's total, while their expenditure accounted for 86%, data from the finance ministry showed.

The plenum flagged plans to address that imbalance.

It said local administrations would be allowed to gradually retain more of the consumption tax, which is currently fully transferred to the central government and accounts for almost a tenth of all revenues.

"It is the most urgent thing to expand the tax sources for local governments," said Zhaopeng Xing, senior China strategist at ANZ. "The current fiscal situation is definitely not good."

Translation

（繼續）

國家主導的創新與成長

法國外貿銀行(Natixis)亞太區高級經濟學家 Gary Ng 表示，全會描繪了「國家主導的經濟成長、創新和安全」的未來。

Ng 說: 「全力押注製造業和新生產力可能還不夠，因為它充滿了不確定性」。

文件也重申，市場將在資源配置中發揮決定性作用，政府將致力於立法以改善私部門的條件, 及提出了財政和金融改革。

其他政策目標包括增加經濟適用房、改善年輕人的就業機會和老年人的生活水平。

與大多數此類文件一樣，它沒有說明中國領導人打算如何實現這些目標，正如共產黨官員週五所承認的那樣，其中許多目標需要在本質上政策是相互矛盾的。

例如，北京方面從未解釋過，當資源主要流向生產商和基礎設施時，如何讓消費者增加支出，或計劃如何在抑制債務的同時去刺激成長。

在2013年的一次全體會議上，北京推出了一項政策議程，其中包括星期日文件中列出的大部分目標，但也包括雄心去開放金融市場和使國內消費成為更重要的成長動力。

2015 年的資本外流恐慌導致許多此類計劃停止。

許多分析家表示，近年來，國家安全考量已將中國推向相反的方向，加強對大部分經濟領域的控制，並對科技和金融等產業進行監管打壓。

稅收變化

分析師預計很快就會看到新措施的一個領域是地方政府財政，因為政策制定者希望緩解人們對超過13 兆美元的市政債務的擔憂，這些債務給金融機構和經濟成長帶來了風險。

財政部數據顯示，2023年，地方政府財政收入佔全國的54%，支出佔全國的86%。

全會提出了解決這種不平衡問題的計劃。

報告稱，地方政府將被允許逐步保留更多的消費稅，目前消費稅已全部轉移到中央政府，幾乎佔所有稅收的十分之一。

澳新銀行高級中國策略師 Zhaopeng Xing 表示： “擴大地方政府的稅源是當務之急” 。 “目前的財政狀況肯定不好。”

So, China releases a policy document outlining known ambitions, from developing advanced industries to improving the business environment, with no sign of imminent structural shifts. Like most documents of this kind, it does not say how Chinese leaders will reach those goals, many of which would require policies that are contradictory in nature. It seems that individual local governments may have to implement the policy documents according to their own interpretation and imagination.