中國商品需求疲軟導致航運繁榮結束

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Weaker Demand for Chinese Goods Spells End of Shipping Boom

Bloomberg News

Mon, September 26, 2022 at 7:09 PM

(Bloomberg) -- The cost of shipping goods from China has slumped to the lowest level in more than two years as the world economy stumbles, dimming prospects for container carriers that turned in record profits during the pandemic.

A 40-foot shipping box from the world’s largest port of Shanghai to Los Angeles fetched $3,779 last week, the first time the spot price was below $4,000 since September 2020 and half the level of three months ago, according to Drewry. More declines are expected in the next few weeks, it said.

While the value of Chinese exports was still rising through August, it’s expected to continue to slow down. That’s a symptom of multiple headwinds hitting developed and developing economies alike, from soaring inflation and a surging dollar to central bank interest-rate hikes and trade disruptions blamed on Russia’s war in Ukraine.

“It’s fair to say that the demand outlook for the trans-Pacific and container shipping generally is receding quickly,” said Simon Heaney, a senior manager of container research at Drewry.

In what’s typically the peak season for seaborne trade, global demand for Chinese goods is waning instead as consumers cut back spending because of inflation and the shift away from goods toward services.

Factories in Europe and the rest of Asia are also scaling back production. China’s economic slowdown is also cutting into import demand, with companies in Asia and Europe seeing weaker growth or declines in orders from Chinese companies.

For the world’s shipping lines, it’s providing some relief to their packed sailing schedules yet threatening to slow an eye-popping run of profitability driven during the pandemic by stronger-than-normal consumer demand for household items.

“While it’s more clear that the second quarter of 2022 will be an earnings peak, I think any talk of bust and return to pre-pandemic earnings levels -- or lack thereof -- is premature,” said John McCown, an industry veteran and founder of Blue Alpha Capital.

Shares of Copenhagen-based A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S hit the lowest since March 2021 on Friday, and Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd AG slumped to the lowest since June last year. Cosco Shipping Holdings Co., China’s biggest carrier, reached a 17-month low. Shares of Honolulu-based Matson Inc., a smaller player that has operated an express Asia-to-US service across the Pacific, are worth about half of their record high set in March.

It was just about two years ago that US import demand started to surge, leading to a queue of cargo ships off the coast of Southern California through 2021 that eventually reached a high of 109 in January this year. As of Friday, the line to enter the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach had eight vessels.

US container imports aren’t falling off a cliff, but they’re slowing down to more normal levels seen before Covid-19.

The steady fall in spot container rates is putting pressure on carriers that have been pushing to sign more long-term contracts with customers as those prices soared into early 2022. Maersk, for instance, said recently it has about 72% of its long-haul volume on contracts.

Walmart Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Ikea were among companies that signed contracts when spot prices were at near-record levels, according to analysis firm Xeneta, but as inflation bites importers in the US and Europe want to ship fewer goods from Asia, it said.

Many of the carriers’ customers want to re-negotiate for discounts.

Agents and freight forwarders in Asia have received calls recently from cargo owners asking to lower their shipping costs, with some exporters complaining about the unfairness of paying almost twice as much on contracts than the spot market. Shipping companies want exporters to bulk up their volumes, but many are refusing to because of the weaker economic outlook.

“We polled customers and 50% of them successfully negotiated for lower rates on term contracts,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta. “The drop in freight rates is due to falling demand globally, and port congestion has eased, allowing for more efficient operation of the ships.”

Economists forecast the value of Chinese exports will grow 9% this year, down from the 13.5% expansion in the first eight months of the year and well below the 30% jump last year. While exports rose 7.1% in August from a year earlier, higher prices rather than a boost in volumes may be playing a bigger role in driving up the figures. About half of the headline export growth in July was due to price effects, according to an estimate by Macquarie Group Ltd.

Earlier Peak

Some of the softening in demand reflects an earlier-than-usual peak season for US companies to import their wares. Historically, Chinese exports grow strongly into the second half of the year as companies in the US and Europe stock up before the holiday season, but this year there was a big spike in shipments in May though July, which then fell back a bit in August.

Shanghai’s port processed 8.4% less cargo in August than a year earlier, with the numbers of containers down 3.4%, the port said earlier this month. That tracks with the drop in boxes arriving in the US -- the number of containers arriving at the busiest US port of Los Angeles dropped by the most since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic last month.

With no capacity to spare just six months ago, the container lines are now scrambling to reduce an excess of it to match demand. According to a Drewry report on Friday, 117 out of 744 sailings were canceled over the next month on major trade lanes, and about 68% of those blanked voyages were scheduled to do transpacific eastbound trips.

The weakening outlook isn’t coming just from mainland China -- Taiwan’s exports grew at the slowest pace in more than two years in August, while South Korean exports dropped 8.7% in the first 20 days of this month.

Bloomberg Intelligence logistics analyst Lee Klaskow said the shipping industry still could have its third-best year in 2023, but the good times may not keep rolling beyond that given all the new ships -- ordered during this period of prosperity -- that will start to be launched next year.

“There is a lot of new capacity hitting the water in 2023, which will dampen spot and contractual rates,” he said. “When we get to 2024, things may get worse for liners as more supply hits the water and supply chains normalize.”

Translation

（彭博社）- 隨著世界經濟步履蹣跚，從中國運輸貨物的成本已跌至兩年多來的最低水平，這使得在病毒大流行期間實現創紀錄利潤的貨櫃箱運輸公司的前景黯淡。

據Drewry箱運輸公司稱，上週從世界最大港口上海到洛杉磯的一個 40 英尺長的海運箱以 3,779 美元的價格售出，這是自 2020 年 9 月以來現貨價格首次低於 4,000 美元，是三個月前水平的一半。它表示，預計未來幾週還會出現更多下降。

儘管到 8 月份中國出口價值仍在上升，但預計將繼續放緩。這是發達國家和發展中經濟體面臨多重不利因素的徵兆，計有從通脹飆和美元飆升, 到央行加息及歸咎於俄羅斯在烏克蘭戰爭的貿易干擾。

Drewry貨櫃箱研究高級經理Simon Heaney說: “公平地說，跨太平洋和貨櫃箱航運的需求前景總體上正在迅速消退” 。

在通常是海運貿易的旺季，全球對中國商品的需求正在減弱，因為消費者因通貨膨脹,及支出從商品轉向服務而削減商品的需求。

歐洲和亞洲其他地區的工廠也在縮減產量。中國經濟放緩也削減了進口需求，亞洲和歐洲企業看到中國增長放緩或企業訂單減少。

對於全球航運公司而言，這為他們擁擠的航行時間表提供了一些緩解，但亦可能會減緩在病毒大流行期間,由於消費者對家居用品的需求強於正常水平,而導致的令人瞠目結舌的盈利增長。

行業資深人士亦是Blue Alpha Capital的創辦人John McCown表示： “雖然 2022 年第二季度將更明顯是盈利高峰，但我認為任何談論蕭條和回歸病毒大流行前盈利水平 - 或無這回事- 都為時過早” 。

總部位於哥本哈根的 A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S 股價週五觸及 2021 年 3 月以來的最低點，德國Hapag-Lloyd AG 股價跌至去年 6 月以來的最低點。中國最大的航運公司中遠海運控股有限公司觸及 17 個月低點。總部位於檀香山的 Matson Inc. 是一家規模較小的公司，在太平洋地區經營著亞洲到美國的快遞服務，其股價約為 3 月份創下的歷史新高的一半。

就在大約兩年前，美國的進口需求開始激增，導致到 2021 年南加州海岸的貨船排隊等候，最終在今年 1 月達到 109 艘的高位。在週五，共有八艘船排隊進入洛杉磯和長灘港口。

美國貨櫃箱進口並沒有懸崖式下跌，但正在放緩至 Covid-19 之前的較正常水平。

貨櫃箱現貨價格的穩步下降給承運商帶來壓力，這些承運商一直在推動與客戶簽訂更多長期合同，正值這些價格一直飆升到 2022 年初。例如，馬士基最近表示，它擁有約 72% 的長途運輸量合約。

據分析公司 Xeneta 稱，沃爾瑪公司、亞馬遜公司和宜家公司是在現貨價格接近創紀錄水平時簽訂合同的公司之一，但隨著通脹的衝擊，它說美國和歐洲的進口商希望減少從亞洲出口的商品。 

許多運營商的客戶希望重新協商折扣。

亞洲的代理和貨運代理最近接到貨主的電話，要求降低運輸成本，一些出口商抱怨合同支付的價格幾乎是現貨市場的兩倍，這是不公平的。航運公司希望出口商增加運輸量，但由於疲弱的經濟前景，許多人拒絕這樣做。

Xeneta 首席分析師 Peter Sand 表示： “我們對客戶進行了調查，其中 50% 的客戶成功地就定期合同的低收費率進行了談判”; “運費下降是由於全球需求下降，港口擁塞有所緩解，從而使船舶能夠更有效地運營。”

經濟學家預測，今年中國出口額將增長 9%，低於今年前 8 個月 13.5% 的增幅，遠低於去年 30% 的增幅。雖然 8 月份出口較上年同期增長 7.1%，但價格上漲而非銷量增長可能在推高數據方面發揮了更大的影響。Macquarie Group Ltd估計，7 月份總體出口增長中約有一半是由於價格的影響。

提早的高峰

需求疲軟在一定程度上反映了美國公司進口商品的旺季早於往常。從歷史上看，中國出口在下半年強勁增長，因為美國和歐洲的公司在假期前囤貨，但今年 5 月至 7 月出貨量大幅飆升，然後在 8 月略有回落.

上海港口本月早些時候表示，8月份上海港口處理的貨物比去年同期減少了8.4%，貨櫃箱數量下降了3.4%。這與到達美國的貨櫃箱數量下降有關 - 到達美國最繁忙的洛杉磯港口的貨櫃箱數量, 見到自上個月 Covid-19 大流行初期以來的最大的跌幅。

僅僅在六個月前貨櫃箱航運公司正是沒有多餘的運力，現在它們正爭先恐後地減少過剩的運力以對應需求。根據Drewry週五的一份報告，在下一個月中，主要貿易航線上的 744 次航行中有 117 次被取消，其中約 68% 的空白航次原是計劃進行跨太平洋東行。

疲弱的前景不僅僅來自中國大陸 - 台灣 8 月份的出口增長速度為兩年多來最慢，而韓國的出口在本月的前 20 天下降了 8.7%。

Bloomberg Intelligence 物流分析師 Lee Klaskow 表示，航運業仍可能在 2023 年迎來第三好的一年，但考慮到所有新船 - 都是在這個繁榮時期訂造的 - 將在明年開始下水，好時光可能不會一直延續下去。

他說： “2023 年將有大量新產能投入使用，這將抑制現貨和合同費率” ; “當我們到 2024 年時，隨著更多供應投入水上運輸和供應鏈正常化，郵輪的情況可能會變得更糟。”

       Container service is an important part of global trade. Currently increased shipping cost is one of the factors that has been causing inflation globally. Its lowering in prince probably would help many countries to reign in the inflation.