Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:
China Is Poised to Export a Lot More Fuel to an Energy-Starved World
Fri, September 23, 2022 at 9:31 AM
(Bloomberg) -- China is poised to export a lot more fuel as Beijing strives to boost its economy by raising refinery runs amid flagging local consumption.
Some 15 million tons of fuel-export quota is expected to be released, according to industry consultants JLC and Energy Aspects Ltd. The allocations will allow the four big state-owned refiners and one private processor to sell more gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil to overseas buyers at a time when frequent virus lockdowns and a property crisis have suppressed local demand.
The move will prompt refiners to crank up operating rates with state-run companies considering raising utilization by 10%-15% next month, according to industry consultancy FGE. Chinese majors will need to raise run rates to 90%, from 75% currently, and increase crude imports by at least 1 million barrels a day to use up all the quota by end of this year, Energy Aspects said.
The export-friendly shift is a reversal from China’s recent focus on only refining to meet its own needs in order to minimize pollution and help consolidate the sprawling industry. The increase in shipments will be welcomed across Asia and the world this winter as power generators turn to diesel and fuel oil amid surging gas costs due to the war in Europe.
The size of the quota, which Bloomberg reported last week, took the market by surprise. Traders said the release is large for this time of the year, although it’s unclear if companies will be able to fully utilize their allocations by the end of 2022. There will likely be 10 million tons of quota for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, said Energy Aspects, with very-low sulfur fuel oil accounting for the remaining 4.5 million tons.
A 10-million-ton quota increase for so-called clean fuels will accelerate exports through year-end, which coincides with rising demand for heating fuel in the run-up to winter. As of July, export allocations for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel exports were 40% less than at same point last year.
The increase in quota is likely aimed at boosting economic activity in China, traders said. The International Energy Agency has forecasted the country, the world’s largest importer of crude, faces the biggest annual drop in oil demand in more than three decades. The agency predicts consumption will fall by 420,000 barrels a day, or 2.7%, this year, the first decrease since 1990.
Of the 15 million tons of quota, it’s likely that China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. will get 5.6 million tons, according to JLC. PetroChina Co. will probably receive 4 million tons, CNOOC Ltd. and Sinochem Group Co. will likely be awarded 2.4 million tons each and private refiner Zhejiang Petroleum & Chemical Co. should get 600,000 tons, the consultant said.
(彭博社) - 中國正準備出口更多燃料，因為中國政府在當地消費疲軟的情況下, 通過提高煉油廠產量來努力地提振經濟。
據行業顧問公司 JLC 和 Energy Aspects Ltd 稱，預計將釋放約 1,500 萬噸的燃料出口配額。這些配額將使四大國有煉油廠及一家私營加工商,在頻密的病毒封鎖和房地產危機抑制當地需求之際，向海外買家銷售更多的汽油、柴油、航空燃料和燃油。
據行業諮詢公司 FGE 稱，此舉將促使煉油廠提高開工率，國有企業考慮在下個月將利用率提高 10%-15%。 Energy Aspects 表示，中國大型石油公司需要將開工率從目前的 75% 提高到 90%，並將原油進口量至少增加 100 萬桶/天，才能在今年年底前用完所有配額。
彭博社上週報導的配額規模令市場感到意外。交易商表示，在一年中這個時候, 釋放量算是很大，但目前尚不清楚公司是否能夠在 2022 年底前充分利用其分配的配額。Energy Aspects說, 汽油、柴油和航空燃料的配額可能會達到 1,000 萬噸, 極低硫燃料油佔剩餘的 450 萬噸。
增加那所謂清潔燃料1,000 萬噸的增加配額, 將促進出口到年底，這與冬季前對取暖燃料的需求增加相吻合。截至 7 月，汽油、柴油和航空燃料出口的出口分配比去年同期減少了 40%。
貿易商稱，配額的增加可能旨在促進中國的經濟活動。國際能源署預測，作為世界上最大的原油進口國，該國將面臨 30 多年來最大的石油需求年度降幅。該機構預測，今年的消費量將每天減少 42 萬桶，即 2.7%，這是自 1990 年以來的首次下降。
據 JLC 稱，在 1,500 萬噸配額中，中國石油化工集團公司可能會獲得 560 萬噸配額。該顧問稱，中石油可能會獲得400萬噸，中海油和中化集團可能各獲得240萬噸，民營煉油企業浙江石油化工有限公司將獲得60萬噸。
So, it is a win-win situation for China to export more oil products so as to boost up its domestic economic activity that is affected by poor demands. Overseas power generators need them because they are now turning to diesel and fuel oil amid surging gas costs due to the war in Ukraine.