隨著煤炭投資飆升，氣候系統 “崩潰” 迫在眉睫

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Climate Systems ‘Breakdown’ Looms as Coal Investments Soar

John Ainger

Thu, October 6, 2022 at 8:23 PM

(Bloomberg) -- The coal industry has backtracked on pledges to phase out existing plants and halt new investments, putting the planet on a trajectory that could lead to a “breakdown of our climate systems,” according to a study led by nonprofit Urgewald.

As warnings from climate scientists “become more and more dire,” data revealing the actions of coal companies “remains depressingly consistent,” said Heffa Schuecking, director of Urgewald. Almost half the coal industry is expanding, with China leading the way, according to the analysis published Thursday.

Nonprofits aren’t the only ones warning of the devastating fallout from continued expansion of the dirtiest fossil fuel. Goldman Sachs Group Inc’s Michele Della Vigna, who heads the Wall Street bank’s natural resources research for EMEA, has dubbed the surge in coal finance a “massive setback” for the climate, and warns that Europe’s reliance on both coal and even diesel may stretch past this winter.

Scientists, meanwhile, have singled out coal, noting there’s no hope of limiting temperature increases to the critical threshold of 1.5C if the world continues to finance new projects. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says the world may be facing temperature increases of more than twice the 1.5C threshold, as emissions continue to rise. That would leave large swaths of the planet uninhabitable.

“The vast majority” of companies in the so-called Global Coal Exit List (GCEL) “still have no intention of retiring the coal assets, which are propelling us towards a breakdown of our climate systems,” Schueking said. “A real transition requires clear and near coal exit dates.”

GCEL, which is a survey of more than 1,000 coal companies, shows that 46% are still developing new coal assets. Only 56 companies -- equivalent to 5.3% of the total -- have announced a coal exit date. But even those setting deadlines have settled on dates that are “ridiculously late,” Urgewald said.

Much of that is related to the energy policies of the governments in which the companies operate, with China by far leading the way. “Coal is a global climate problem,” Nathaniel Bullard, a senior contributor to BloombergNEF and Bloomberg Green, said on Thursday. “Its expansion is also concentrated in a very few places.”

There’s also more cash from the finance industry flowing into coal, again led by Chinese banks. Reclaim Finance estimates that 190 banks and money managers still have no coal policy. A further 272 have either weak or inadequate policies, and only 28 have effective exit strategies.

In the first nine months of 2022, banks provided $26 billion in loans and bonds to the coal industry, up 36% from the same period in 2021, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. China Securities and China Everbright Bank are listed as the two largest coal bond underwriters.

Coal has undergone a resurgence this year as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine turbo charges all fossil-fuel markets. The International Energy Agency estimates that consumption of the dirtiest fuel will rise by 0.7% this year and then hit an all-time high in 2023.

A little under a year ago, governments left the COP26 climate summit in Scotland having pledged to cut their use of coal. They meet again next month for the COP27 climate summit in Egypt, with an energy crisis, war and the prospect of recession casting a huge shadow over talks.

Still, climate think tank E3G says that it’s not too late for coal companies to make good on their commitments to scale back. “We’ve seen an uptick in the number of coal power stations being kept online,” said Leo Roberts, research managers for E3G’s coal team. But that doesn’t undermine pledges made at COP26 last year, he said.

According to Shuecking, however, it’s clear that most of the coal industry is “not transitioning.”

It’s “either developing new coal projects or dragging out the life of existing coal assets,” she said. “Delaying has become a new form of climate denial.”

Translation

（彭博社）- 根據非營利組織 Urgewald 領導的一項研究，煤炭行業已經放棄了逐步淘汰現有工廠和停止新投資的承諾，使地球走上可能導致 “我們氣候系統的崩潰” 的軌跡。

Urgewald 的主管 Heffa Schuecking 說，隨著氣候科學家的警告 “變得越來越駭人听聞” ，顯示煤炭公司行為的數據 “仍然令人沮喪地保持一貫不變” 。根據周四公佈的分析，幾乎一半的煤炭行業正在擴張，其中中國處於領先地位。

非營利組織並不是唯一警告這種最骯髒的化石燃料的持續擴張會帶來毀滅性後果的人。高盛集團的 Michele Della Vigna 是華爾街銀行歐洲、中東和非洲地區自然資源研究的負責人，他稱煤炭融資的激增對氣候來說是 “巨大的挫折” ，並警告說歐洲對煤炭甚至柴油的依賴可能會跨越這個冬天。

與此同時，科學家們特別提到了煤炭，指出如果世界繼續為煤炭新項目提供資金，那麼將溫度升高限制在 1.5C 的臨界門檻是沒有希望的。聯合國政府間氣候變化專門委員會表示，隨著排放量繼續增加，世界可能面臨超過 1.5 攝氏度門檻值兩倍以上的溫度升高。這將使地球上的大片土地無法居住。

Schueking 說，所謂的全球煤炭退出清單 (GCEL) 中的 “絕大多數” 公司 “仍然無意淘汰煤炭資產，這正在推動我們走向氣候系統的崩潰” 。 “真正的過渡需要明確且不遥遠的煤炭停產日期。”

GCEL 對 1,000 多家煤炭公司的調查顯示，46% 的公司仍在開發新的煤炭資產。只有 56 家公司（佔總數的 5.3%）宣布了煤炭退出日期。Urgewald 說, 即使是那些設定最後期限的人, 也確定了 “可笑地遲” 的日期。

這在很大程度上與公司運營所在政府的能源政策有關，中國遙遙領先。彭博新能源財經和Bloomberg Green的高級撰稿人Nathaniel Bullard 週四表示 “煤炭是一個全球氣候問題”; “它的擴張也集中在極少數地方。”

金融業也有更多現金流入煤炭，同樣由中資銀行帶動。 Reclaim Finance 估計，仍有 190 家銀行和基金經理沒有煤炭政策。另有 272 家政策薄弱或不足，只有 28 家製定了有效的退出策略。

根據彭博彙編的數據，2022 年前 9 個月，銀行向煤炭行業提供了 260 億美元的貸款和債券，較 2021 年同期增長 36%。中國證券和中國光大銀行被列為最大的兩家煤炭債券承銷商。

由於俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭使所有化石燃料市場有比平時更快的速度增長，令煤炭今年經歷了復甦。國際能源署估計，今年最不潔燃料的消費量將增長 0.7%，然後在 2023 年創下歷史新高。

不到一年前，各國政府離開了在蘇格蘭舉行的 COP26 氣候峰會時, 承諾減少對煤炭的使用。他們下個月在埃及舉行的 COP27 氣候峰會上再次會面，能源危機、戰爭和經濟衰退的前景給會談蒙上了巨大的陰影。

儘管如此，氣候智庫 E3G 表示，煤炭公司要兌現縮減規模的承諾還為時未晚。 E3G 煤炭團隊的研究經理 Leo Roberts 說： “我們看到保持生產運作的燃煤發電站數量有所增加” 。他說但這並沒有削弱去年在 COP26 上做出的承諾。

然而，根據 Shuecking 的說法，很明顯，大部分煤炭行業都 “沒有轉型” 。

她說它們 “要么開發新的煤炭項目，要么延長現有煤炭資產的壽命”; “延遲已成為否認氣候變化的一種新形式” 。

              So, for different reasons (economic benefits, greed, fighting a war etc.) human are unable or reluctant to give up those tradition unclean energy sources that are easy to obtain such as coal.  Global warming will continue as a result of increasing CO2 emission caused by human activities. It seems that human is sealing its own fate.