隨著經濟衰退的臨近，芯片製造商看到需求的 “驚人”下降

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Chipmakers See ‘Breathtaking’ Drop in Demand as Recession Looms

Sohee Kim, Peter Elstrom and Debby Wu

Fri, October 7, 2022 at 5:51 PM

(Bloomberg) -- Signs are piling up that the tech downturn may be deeper and longer-lasting than feared.

After years of record capital spending, chipmakers are warning on a weekly basis that demand is sputtering. In the latest sign of trouble, Samsung Electronics Co. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. reported disappointing results within hours of each other that widely missed projections.

Samsung -- the world’s largest memory chipmaker -- reported a 32% dive in operating income, while PC-processor maker AMD said it will miss its earlier forecast by about $1 billion. Analysts’ reactions ranged from “breathtaking” to “Uff-da!”

Those numbers followed grim comments from memory makers Micron Technologies Inc. and Kioxia Holdings Corp., which are slashing spending and output in a bid to stabilize plummeting prices. AMD shares fell in premarket trading, along with chipmakers including Nvidia Corp. and Intel Corp. Chip gear suppliers such as ASML Holding NV and PC makers including Lenovo Group Ltd. also dropped. Japan’s Disco Corp., whose equipment grinds, polishes and dices chips, lost the most in more than two years Friday.

“It seems end demand has likely deteriorated markedly in recent weeks, and end customers appear to be aggressively draining inventory,” Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon said. The cut in AMD’s client-revenue “is admittedly a bit breathtaking.”

The outlier has been Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which posted a roughly 48% surge in quarterly revenue to about NT$613 billion ($19.4 billion) -- at the top range of its guidance in US dollar terms -- helped by its growing clout as the world’s most advanced maker of chips. The downtrend in demand may not have been fully reflected in the numbers, especially given the sharp depreciation of the Taiwan dollar, Haitong International Securities analyst Jeff Pu said.

Consumer electronics companies that had struggled with shortages during the pandemic are now facing a sudden falloff in demand, even while shipping and materials costs remain high. Recession fears are making cost-cutting the new norm across the tech industry, and businesses that hoarded chips for two years are now opting to cancel or postpone orders and tap inventory, just as new capacity goes online.

The semiconductor industry is also grappling with export restrictions from the US government, which is ratcheting up pressure on its allies to prevent shipment of cutting-edge chips to a growing list of Chinese companies, as it seeks to contain the Asian country. That’s hampering business for chipmakers from AMD to Nvidia in the world’s biggest semiconductor market.

Supply and demand are not all that is behind the current downcycle, said Heo Pil-Seok, chief executive officer at Midas International Asset Management in Seoul. “The US government’s exports controls would further limit IT companies’ sales in China and a large chunk of demand for chips will be weakened. If AMD, Nvidia can’t sell their chips in China, memory makers’ earnings will deteriorate further.”

The PC segment, which has for years been losing ground to smartphones, looks particularly vulnerable. But a serious recession would hammer demand even in areas that have remained solid, such as in cloud computing, automotives and factory automation.

“We would continue to stay away from PC-centric names, which within our coverage list include AMD, Intel, and Nvidia, due to a likely prolonged PC downturn into next year and continued weakness in consumer gaming,” Baird analysts Tristan Gerra and Tyler Bomba wrote in a note to clients.

Share prices dropped throughout the semiconductor supply chain, from materials makers like JSR Corp. to chip gear makers such as Advantest Corp. and Screen Holdings Co. Even silicon wafer makers such as Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. and Sumco Corp. fell.

The companies themselves are bracing for a prolonged downturn. Samsung’s chip business head, Kyung Kyehyun, said last month he doesn’t see the memory market rebounding throughout next year. Kyung told employees at an internal event that Samsung cut its guidance for chip sales in the second half of this year by 32% compared to a forecast in April, according to the Korea Economic Daily.

What Bloomberg Intelligence Says

PC demand will continue to be soft in 4Q, given heavy PC processor inventory as announced by chipmaker AMD. Won depreciation might not be enough to offset weak sales of memory chips and consumer electronics, such as TVs.

          -- Masahiro Wakasugi, BI analyst

 Delivery times for key components and machinery sometimes exceeded one year during the pandemic, causing companies to stockpile a year’s worth of inventory, while chipmakers rushed to ramp up capacity. Now that lead times have dropped, companies are scrambling to reduce stockpiles.

“You build supply for demand that turns out not to be as real as you thought it was,” Rasgon said. “No party lasts forever.”

Translation

（彭博社）- 有跡象表明，科技衰退可能比人們擔心的更深、更持久。

在多年創紀錄的資本支出之後，芯片製造商每週都在警告需求正在下降。在最新的麻煩跡像中，三星電子公司和 Advanced Micro Devices Inc. 在幾個小時內相繼報告了令人失望的結果，大大低於預期。

全球最大的內存芯片製造商三星報告營業收入下降 32%，而 PC 處理器製造商 AMD 表示將比之前的預測低約 10 億美元。分析師的反應從 “驚險” 到 “Uff-da！” 不等。

記憶体製造商Micron Technologies Inc. 和 Kioxia Holdings Corp. 在削減支出和產量以穩定暴跌的價格中, 發表了嚴峻的評論, 之後這些數字緊緊跟隨。 AMD 股價在盤前交易中下跌，Nvidia Corp和英特爾等芯片製造商也下跌。ASML Holding NV 等芯片設備供應商和聯想集團等個人電腦製造商也下跌。週五，日本迪斯科公司（Disco Corp.）, 其設備是專注磨削、拋光和切割芯片，見到兩年多來的損失最大。

Bernstein 的 Stacy Rasgon 說: “最近幾週，終端需求似乎明顯惡化，終端客戶似乎正在積極消耗庫存，” AMD 從客戶收的益下跌 “誠然有點驚人” 。

異常的是台積電，其季度收入增長約 48%，達到約 6,130 億新台幣（合 194 億美元）- 以美元計算是處於其指引的最高範圍 - 這是得益於其日益增長的影響力：世界上最先進的芯片製造商。海通國際證券分析師 Jeff Pu 表示，需求下降趨勢可能並未完全反映在數據之中，尤其是考慮到台幣大幅貶值。

即使在運輸和材料成本居高不下的情況下, 消費電子公司在病毒大流行期間已一直在與各類供應不足爭扎, 現在更面臨需求的突然下降。面對經濟衰退的擔憂, 使削減成本成為整個科技行業的新常態，正當預備開始啟動新產能之際, 囤積芯片兩年的企業, 現在選擇取消或推遲訂單並挖掘庫存。

半導體行業也在努力應對美國政府的出口限制，美國政府正在加大對其盟友的壓力，以阻止向越來越多的中國公司運送尖端芯片，因為它試圖遏制這個亞洲國家。這阻礙了從 AMD 到 Nvidia 等全球最大半導體市場的芯片製造商的業務。

Midas International Asset Management 首席執行官 Heo Pil-Seok 表示，供需並不是當前下行週期的全部原因。 “美國政府的出口管制將進一步限制 IT 公司在中國的銷售，很大一部分芯片需求將被削弱。如果 AMD、Nvidia 不能在中國銷售他們的芯片，記憶體製造商的收益將進一步惡化。”

多年來一直輸給智能手機的個人電腦市場看起來特別脆弱。但即使在雲計算、汽車和工廠自動化等一直保持穩健的領域，嚴重的衰退也會打擊其需求。

Baird 分析師 Tristan Gerra 和 Tyler Bomba 在給客戶的一份說明中寫道： “因為明年 PC 可能會長期低迷，並且消費者遊戲持續疲軟, 我們將繼續遠離以 PC 為中心的品牌，在我們的覆蓋範圍包括 A​​MD、英特爾和 Nvidia” 。

從 JSR Corp. 等材料製造商到 Advantest Corp. 和 Screen Holdings Co. 等芯片設備製造商，整個半導體供應鏈的股價都在下跌。甚至像 Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. 和 Sumco Corp. 這樣的矽片製造商也下跌。

這些公司本身正在為長期的低迷做準備。三星芯片業務負責人 Kyung Kyehyun 上個月表示，他認為明年記憶體市場不會反彈。據韓國經濟日報報導，Kyung 在一次內部活動中告訴員工，與 4 月份的預測相比，三星將今年下半年的芯片銷售預期下調了 32%。

彭博情報說什麼

鑑於芯片製造商 AMD 宣布的大量 PC 處理器庫存，第四季度 PC 需求將繼續疲軟。韓元貶值可能不足以抵消記憶體芯片和電視等消費電子產品的疲軟銷售。

    -- Masahiro Wakasugi，BI 分析師

在病毒大流行期間，關鍵零部件和機器的交貨時間有時會超過一年，導致公司囤積一年的庫存，而芯片製造商則急於提高產能。現在交貨時間已經縮短，公司正在爭先恐後地減少庫存。

Rasgon 說： “你為需求建立供應，結果並不像你想像的那樣真實”; “沒有什麼派對是永恆的。”

              So, after years of record capital spending, chipmakers are giving warning that demand is falling. In the latest sign of trouble, Samsung Electronics Co. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. report disappointing business results. Is this a sign of global recession?

Note

Uff da! is an exclamation or interjection used to express dismay, typically upon hearing bad news. Of Norwegian origin, the phrase was brought by Scandinavian Americans to the Upper Midwest, New England, and Pacific Northwest regions of the United States during the 19th century. (Wikipedia)