中國在“可能發生衝突的風險”中減持美國債務

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China cut US debt holding amid 'risk of possible conflict'

SCMP

Wed, July 20, 2022 at 2:30 AM

A desire by Beijing to avoid "the risk of possible conflict" with Washington could have contributed to China cutting its holding of US government debt to below US$1 trillion for the first time in over 12 years, analysts said.

China's holdings of US Treasuries fell from US$1.003 trillion in April to US$980.8 billion in May, according to the US Department of the Treasury, representing the lowest point since May 2010 when its holdings stood at US$843.7 billion.

The US is dealing with its highest level of inflation in 40 years, while strained bilateral ties between China and the US over trade, technology and Russia have also contributed to the concerns.

Hong Kong also slashed its holdings from US$195.4 billion in May to US$186.6 billion last month.

"It's essentially a matter of China-US relations," said Tan Yaling, head of the Beijing-based China Forex Investment Research Institute.

 "The large holdings in the past were due to the good bilateral ties, but now China needs to avoid the risk of a possible conflict with the United States."

The reduction for the sixth straight month came at a time when Chinese academics and policy circles have held heated discussions over de-dollarisation amid the US strategic rivalry, including technological containment and the threat of decoupling.

Former central bank adviser Yu Yongding told a forum in Beijing in May that China should adjust its overseas asset portfolio, explicitly calling for cuts in holdings of US Treasuries, citing low return and increasing worries over their safety.

Beijing has long been diversifying its foreign exchange assets, with the proportion of US dollar assets dropping from around 70 per cent in 1995 to 58 per cent in 2015, according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

China's current holding of US Treasuries represents around a 25 per cent retreat from its peak of US$1.32 trillion in November 2013 and a 10.4 per cent fall since Joe Biden took over as US president in January 2021.

US Treasuries now account for 31.4 per cent of China's US$3.07 trillion foreign exchange reserves, representing the lowest share since the global financial crisis in 2008.

China, according to Tan, could shift its attention to gold, projects under its Belt and Road Initiative and preparation for domestic risks amid the rising risks of a global recession.

Between October 2018 and November 2019, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) increased its gold holdings by 105.75 metric tonnes to 1,948 metric tonnes. China's gold reserves have remained unchanged since.

Short-term issues, including aggressive rate increases and planned balance sheet downsizing by the US Federal Reserve, also weighed on the decision to cut holdings of US Treasuries, analysts said.

Japan, which replaced China as the largest holder of US government debt in June 2019, also trimmed its holdings by US$5.7 billion to US$1.212 trillion at the end of May, representing the lowest level since January 2020.

Britain, Switzerland and Belgium all reported net purchases in May. Britain is the third-largest holder of US Treasuries behind Japan and China at US$634 billion at the end of June after adding US$21.3 billion.

Beijing's policymakers are closely watching the US Federal Reserve's rate decision next week, as the 40-year-high inflation rate of 9.1 per cent in the US could trigger another major increase after June's 75 basis point rise, which was the biggest since 1994.

Speaking at the Group of 20 (G20) meeting over the weekend, Chinese central bank governor Yi Gang said the PBOC would provide more powerful support for the national economy, which grew by only 0.4 per cent year on year in the second quarter.

"As a super-large economy, China will continue to align its monetary policy to domestic needs while taking into account internal and external balance," Zou Lan, head of the central bank's monetary policy department, said last week.

Translation

分析師表示，北京為希望避免與華盛頓 “可能發生衝突而產生的風險”，可能導致中國在 12 年來首次將其持有的美國政府債務降至 1 萬億美元以下。

根據美國財政部的數據，中國持有的美國國債從 4 月份的 1.003 萬億美元降至 5 月份的 9,808 億美元，這是自 2010 年 5 月其持有的 8,437 億美元以來的最低點。

美國正在應對 40 年來最高水平的通貨膨脹，而中美之間在貿易、技術和俄羅斯方面的緊張雙邊關係也加劇了這種擔憂。

香港也將其持有的資產從 5 月的 1,954 億美元減至上月的 1,866 億美元。

北京中國外匯投資研究所所長 Tan Yaling 說: “這本質上是中美關係的問題” 。

“過去持有大量股份是由於雙邊關係良好，但現在中國需要避免可能與美國發生衝突而產生的風險。”

連續第六個月減持之際，中國學術界和政策界在對美國戰略競爭中, 就有關去美元化問題進行了激烈討論，包括技術遏制和脫鉤威脅。

央行前顧問 Yu Yongding 在北京5 月的一個論壇上表示，中國應該調整其海外資產組合，明確要求減持美國國債，理由是回報率低，及對美國國債安全性的擔憂加劇。

根據國家外匯管理局的數據，北京長期以來一直在多元化其外匯資產，美元資產的比例從 1995 年的 70% 左右下降到 2015 年的 58%。

中國目前持有的美國國債較 2013 年 11 月 1.32 萬億美元的峰值下降了約 25%，自拜登於 2021 年 1 月接任美國總統以來下降了 10.4%。

美國國債目前佔中國 3.07 萬億美元外匯儲備的 31.4%，是 2008 年全球金融危機以來的最低份額。

據Tan說，中國可能會將注意力轉移到黃金、 “一帶一路”倡議下的項目，以及在全球衰退風險上升的情況下為國內風險做準備。

2018 年 10 月至 2019 年 11 月期間，中國人民銀行 (PBOC) 將黃金持有量增加 105.75 公噸至 1,948 公噸。自此以後，中國的黃金儲備一直保持不變。

分析師表示，短期問題，包括美聯儲大幅加息和計劃縮減資產負債表，也影響了減持美國國債的決定。

日本於 2019 年 6 月取代中國成為美國政府債務的最大持有者，截至 5 月底，日本也減持 57 億美元至 1.212 萬億美元，為 2020 年 1 月以來的最低水平。

英國、瑞士和比利時都報告了 5 月份的淨購入量。英國是繼日本和中國之後的第三大美國國債持有國，在增加 213 億美元之後，截至 6 月底，英國持有 6,340 億美元的美國國債。

北京的政策制定者正在密切關注美聯儲下週的利率決定，因為美國 40 年來最高的 9.1% 的通脹率可能會在 6 月份的 75 個基點升幅之後再次大幅上漲，那是自 1994 年以來的最大漲幅。

中國央行行長易綱在周末舉行的 20 國集團 (G20) 會議上表示，中國人民銀行將為國民經濟提供更有力的支持，第二季度國民經濟同比僅增長 0.4%。

央行貨幣政策司司長Zou Lan上週表示： “作為一個超大型經濟體，中國將繼續將貨幣政策與國內需求相結合，同時兼顧內外平衡。”

 So, China's holdings of US Treasuries fell from US$1.003 trillion in April to US$980.8 billion in May, representing the lowest point since May 2010. China, according to some experts, could shift its attention to gold, projects under its Belt and Road Initiative and preparation for domestic risks amid the rising risks of a global recession. No wonder gold price has been going up in recent years.