對於美國的下一代中國問題專家來說，挑戰不僅僅是語言及國家接觸(2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

For America's next generation of China experts, the challenges go beyond language and country access (2/2)

SCMP

Mon, August 1, 2022 at 2:30 AM

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Victor Shih, a China scholar at the University of California San Diego, said reduced economic opportunities, combined with China's zero-Covid approach, have put foreigners off China who might otherwise be interested in the country.

"China was [once] seen as a kind of land of opportunity for young foreigners. That is no longer the case," said Shih, who regularly visited the mainland for decades until the pandemic. He described the "golden period" for aspiring China experts as spanning the 1990s to 2017-2018 when foreign nationals with "some Chinese skills" and China knowledge had ample job opportunities in Hong Kong, Macau and mainland China.

Shih echoed the view that Beijing's restrictive entry policies during the pandemic have made China a less attractive place to be. Indeed, a three-month mass lockdown in Shanghai from April 1 to June 1 prompted many foreigners to flee the commercial hub.

But Mary Gallagher, director of the Centre for Chinese Studies at the University of Michigan, believes Beijing's firmer hand in recent years has contributed more to plummeting interest in China studies than pandemic limitations.

"We are starting to see students make a choice," explained Gallagher, saying students think "maybe I will not be a China scholar because I just can't take risks right now". She said students reason that either China won't "open up in the next couple of years" or that their topic of interest "is too politically sensitive", leading them to conclude they need to pursue another field. It is "very risky for students to focus solely on China right now", she added.

As a result, academics are now more likely to rely heavily on open data and the internet to conduct research on China, Gallagher said. This scenario presents additional concerns, as government data is not completely "reliable or representative" and a scarcity of qualitative survey opportunities hinders insight, she said.

Deborah Seligsohn of Villanova University, who served as a science counsellor at the US embassy in Beijing from 2003 to 2007, said Washington also shared some of the blame. Seligsohn said that as security clearances were harder to come by during the Trump administration more people working in China research became more careful about how their ties to the country might be perceived.

For the State Department to enhance China expertise, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken should think about "hiring standards and making sure that security is not simply operating on assumptions but is actually doing the real work of determining what's a risk and what's not", Seligsohn said.

Public attention has increasingly turned to how China might be endangering US national security, illustrated by the Justice Department's recently ended China Initiative meant to crack down on leaks of technological and other sensitive information for Beijing's benefit. Under the Trump-era programme, some prominent American professors faced charges for misreporting or covering up connections to Chinese funds.

Meanwhile, in the private sector, Isaac Stone Fish, founder of the China-focused research firm Strategy Risks, said he observed younger Americans having very different experiences with China compared to previous generations who knew a relatively open country in the 2000s and early 2010s.

Stone Fish, a former journalist who was based in China for seven years, described the older generation of experts who lived in the country as having "built relationships with people outside [Chinese Communist Party-] controlled channels of people-to-people exchanges".

 "Many in the next generation of young American experts are more sceptical of the Chinese Communist Party, of engagement, and of friends of China, like Henry Kissinger," he said.

Beyrer, the China expert-in-waiting, espouses this perspective. The University of Pennsylvania graduate said he did not think first-hand living experience in China was a prerequisite to claiming expertise in the country if one's language skills were strong.

Still, Beyrer acknowledged that how he views China shifts when he is based in the US.

"In China, you really have the opportunity to meet people, learn about their daily lives and the way politics and the government influence an average person," Beyrer said. "In the US, things are a little more politics- and international relations-centric."

Beyrer noted he would keep waiting to enter the mainland, despite many in his academic programme leaving China studies altogether. In the meantime, he bides his time working as a China analyst at a strategy and business advisory firm in Washington.

"When I'm in the United States, my attention turns more towards sensitive and complicated topics," he said. "In China, there's more of an opportunity to focus on cooperation and development when you're learning."

Translation

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加州大學聖地亞哥分校的中國專題學者 Victor Shih 表示，經濟機會減少，再加上中國的零新冠疫情政策，讓原本可能對中國感興趣的外國人遠離中國。

幾十年來一直定期訪問大陸直到大流行發生為止的 Shih 說: “中國 [曾經] 被視為年輕外國人的一塊機會之地。現在情況已不再如此” 。他將有抱負的中國專家的 “黃金時期” 描述為跨越 1990 年代至 2017-2018 年，當時具有 “一些中國技能” 和中國知識的外國人在香港、澳門和中國大陸擁有大量工作機會。

Shih 贊同的一個觀點同是,北京在大流行期間的限制性入境政策使中國成為不那麼有吸引力的地方。事實上，從 4 月 1 日到 6 月 1 日，上海為期三個月的大規模封鎖促使許多外國人逃離這個商業中心。

但密歇根大學中國研究中心主任 Mary Gallagher認為，北京近年來的严格控制,更大程度導致對中國研究的興趣驟降，而不是由於流行病上的限制。

Gallagher 解釋: “我們開始看到學生做出選擇” ，說學生們認為 “也許我不會成為一名中國學者，因為我現在不能冒險” 。她說，學生們的理由要么是中國不會 “在未來幾年內開放” ，要么是他們感興趣的話題 “在政治上過於敏感” ，導致他們得出結論，他們需要探求另一個學術領域。她補充說， “學生現在只單一地專門於中國研究是非常危險的” 。

Gallagher說, 因此學術界現在更有可能重點地依賴開放數據和互聯網來對中國進行研究。她說，這種情況帶來了額外的擔憂，因為政府數據並不完全 “可靠或具有代表性”，而且成分識別的調查機會不足夠, 會阻礙觀察的進行。

維拉諾瓦大學的Deborah Seligsohn 曾於 2003 年至 2007 年在美國駐北京大使館擔任科學顧問，她說華盛頓也負有部分責任。 Seligsohn 說，由於在特朗普政府期間更難獲得安全審查，更多從事中國研究工作的人更加謹慎外界如何看待他們與中國的連係。

Seligsohn說, 為了讓國務院加強對中國的專業知識，美國國務卿布林肯應該考慮 “聘用標準並確保安全不僅僅是在假設上運作，而是實際上做出確定什麼是風險和什麼不是風險的真正工作” 。

公眾的注意力越來越多地轉向中國可能如何危及美國國家安全，司法部最近結束的中國倡議就是例證，該倡議旨在打擊可令北京謀取利益的技術, 和其他敏感信息的洩露。在特朗普時代的計劃下，一些著名的美國教授因誤報或掩蓋與中國基金的聯繫而面臨指控。

與此同時，在私營部門，專注於中國的研究公司 Strategy Risks 的創始人 Isaac Stone Fish 表示，他觀察到年輕的美國人對中國的體驗, 與在 2000 年代和 2010 年代初了解一個相對開放的中國的前幾代人相比，截然不同。

在中國工作了 7 年的前記者 Stone Fish 把居住在中國的老一輩專家描述為 “與 [中國共產黨-] 控制之外的渠道建立了人與人交流關係” .

他說： “美國下一代年輕專家中的許多人, 對於中國共產黨、對於交往, 以及對像基辛格這樣的中國朋友更加持懷疑態度。”

中國候任專家Beyrer支持這種觀點。這位賓夕法尼亞大學的畢業生說，如果一個人的語言能力很強，他認為在中國的第一手生活經驗並不是可自稱有擁有專業中國知識的先決條件。

 儘管如此，Beyrer 承認，當他以美國為依據，他對中國的看法發生了變化。

Beyrer說“在中國，你真的有機會結識人們，了解他們的日常生活, 以及政治和政府對普通人的影響”; “在美國，事情更加以政治和國際關係為中心。”

Beyrer指出，儘管他的學術課程中有許多人完全離開了中國研究，但他仍將繼續等待進入大陸。與此同時，他正在華盛頓的一家戰略和商業諮詢公司擔任中國分析師，及等待著自己的時機。

他說: “當我在美國時，我的注意力更多地轉向敏感和復雜的話題”; “在中國，當你學習的時候，有更多的機會專注於合作和發展。”

              So, the current situation does not help young Americans to become Chinese experts because of China’s policy. When talking about Chinese experts, I think those ethnic Chinese scholars now teaching in the universities in the US are already experts on China. Probably they know more about the way of thinking among Chinses leaders.