Green hydrogen - Europeans cultivate it in South America with Chile the cheapest - Japan is late

Recently Nihon Keizai Shimbun Electronic Edition reported the following

グリーン水素、欧州勢が南米開拓　チリ最安・日本出遅れ

カーボンゼロ

2021年12月13日 4:00 [有料会員限定]

小山堅さん他3名の投稿

欧州企業が南米やアフリカで再生可能エネルギー由来の「グリーン水素」の製造に動き始めた。太陽光・風力発電の適地が大きく、製造コストが低いからだ。エネルギー輸出国を目指すため外資誘致に力を入れる新興国に協力し、新市場で先行する。日本勢がオーストラリアなどで手掛ける海外事業は小粒で、出遅れ感が否めない。

 

製造コスト、日本より4割安く

フランスの電力大手エンジーは南米チリのグリーン水素プロジェクトに20億ドル（約2270億円）以上の投資を検討していることを明らかにした。2025年までに北部の砂漠地帯で太陽光パネルから水素を製造するプラントを稼働する計画を皮切りに、施設の大型化を目指す。

チリ中部から北部の砂漠地帯は太陽光発電の適地で、南極に近い南部では風力発電が盛んだ。グリーン水素を製造するために必要な再生エネのコストは安い。プライスウォーターハウスクーパース（PwC）と世界エネルギー会議によると、20年時点でチリのグリーン水素製造コストは1キログラム当たり3.5～3.75ユーロ（約450～480円）と世界でも最安レベル。日本より4割以上安い。

チリ政府はこれらの地域でグリーン水素やグリーンアンモニアの製造プラントを建設し、世界中に輸出する計画を進める。エンジーは各地で再生エネの発電所の建設や運営を画策している。

独シーメンス・ポルシェは合成燃料

水から水素を製造する水電解装置で世界大手の独シーメンス・エナジーは9月、ポルシェなどと共同で水素と二酸化炭素（CO2）から作る合成燃料のプラントの建設プロジェクトをチリ南部で始動した。22年にも製造に着手し、26年までに生産能力を5億5000万リットルまで拡大する計画だ。ポルシェのディーラーなどを通じて販売する。

合成燃料は水素とCO2を化学的に合成して製造する。通常のガソリンと同じように利用でき、CO2の排出量を9割減らせる。シーメンス・エナジーは中南米地域のエネルギー問題を議論するオンライン会議を主催するなど、各国の閣僚や有力企業幹部に直接、グリーン水素の製造技術を売り込んでいる。

水素は化石燃料に代わる発電用のエネルギー源のほか、船舶・自動車の燃料、製鉄の低炭素化など幅広い分野で需要が拡大している。国際エネルギー機関（IEA）は50年までに水素の消費量が年間5億2800万トンと、20年の6倍に増えると予測。なかでも再生エネからつくるグリーン水素はカーボンゼロ燃料として注目を集める。

広大な国土を持つ中南米諸国は再生エネのコストが低く開発余地が大きいものの、先進国と比べ産業集積が遅れている。欧州企業はグリーン水素の発展が産業育成や雇用創出につながるとアピールし、国や地方政府と連携。エンジーは10月、ブラジル北東部のセアラ州とグリーン水素の製造を核とした地域振興を推進することで合意した。

アフリカでも存在感

欧州企業はアフリカでも存在感を示す。ノルウェー太陽光発電会社のスカテックは10月、エジプトでグリーン水素製造に乗り出すと発表した。エジプトではシーメンス・エナジーやイタリア炭化水素公社（ENI）もグリーン水素事業に取り組むと表明している。

モロッコやチュニジアでも欧州企業が参入している。アルジェリアなどから既存の天然ガス用のパイプラインを経由して水素を欧州に輸出する計画も持ち上がっている。

脱炭素のエネルギー源として水素を重視する欧州連合（EU）欧州委員会は20年に出したリポートで「EUが優先するのは再生エネ由来の水素だ」と明記した。「地理的に近い北アフリカはコスト競争力のある再生エネ由来の水素をEUに供給する可能性がある」として、官民一体でアフリカでの水素製造を後押しする。

ドイツ政府は20年に水素産業立ち上げのため90億ユーロを拠出すると発表した際「ドイツの再生エネの容量は限定的だ」として、20億ユーロを海外でのグリーン水素産業育成に充てるとした。シーメンスのチリでの投資にも、こうした補助金が使われている。

日本は「グレー水素」優先

欧州が官民一体で新興国でのグリーン水素の開拓を進める一方、日本勢の動きは鈍い。日本政府は10月に閣議決定したエネルギー基本計画で30年の電源構成における水素・アンモニアの比率を1%としたが、資源エネルギー庁は「既存の水素供給源を最大限活用する」として、当面は化石燃料由来の「グレー水素」の輸入を優先する姿勢を崩していない。

ENEOSや岩谷産業、川崎重工業などがオーストラリアで製造したグリーン水素の輸入に向け動いているものの、規模は限定的だ。日本政府は30年までに最大300万トンの水素を活用するとしているが、大半はグレー水素になる。EUは30年に最大1000万トンのグリーン水素を製造するとしており、格差が大きく開きそうだ。

Translation

European companies had begun moving to South America and Africa to produce "green hydrogen" derived from renewable energy. This was because there was large suitable land for solar and wind power generation and the manufacturing cost was low. They cooperated with emerging countries that were focusing on attracting foreign capital to become an energy exporter, and were taking the lead in the new markets. The overseas business that the Japanese people were engaging in Australia and in other locations was small, and it was undeniable that they were late.

Manufacturing cost was 40% cheaper than in Japan

French power giant Engie had revealed that it was considering investing more than $ 2 billion in a green hydrogen project in Chile, South America. The company aimed to increase the size of the facility, starting with a plan to start operating a plant that produced hydrogen from solar panels in the desert area in the north by 2025.

The desert areas from central to northern Chile were suitable for solar power generation, and wind power generation was popular in the southern part near Antarctica. The cost of renewable energy required to produce green hydrogen was low. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) and the World Energy Council, the cost of producing green hydrogen in Chile was 3.5 to 3.75 euros per kilogram (about 450 to 480 yen) as of 2020, which was the lowest level in the world. It was cheaper than Japan’s by 40%.

The Chilean government planned to build green hydrogen and green ammonia production plants in these areas and export them worldwide. Engie was planning to build and operate renewable energy power plants in various places.

German Siemens Porsche was a synthetic fuel

In September, Siemens Energy AG, the world's leading water electrolyser that produced hydrogen from water, started a project to build a plant that made synthetic fuel from hydrogen and carbon dioxide (CO2) in collaboration with Porsche and others in southern Chile. It planned to start production in 2022 and expanded its production capacity to 550 million liters by 2026. Sales would be made through Porsche dealers.

Synthetic fuel was produced by chemically synthesizing hydrogen and CO2. It could be used in the same way as ordinary gasoline, and CO2 emissions could be reduced by 90%. Siemens Energy sold green hydrogen production technology directly to ministerial officials and leading business executives in individual countries, including hosting an online conference etc. to discuss energy issues in central and south America.

Apart from the fact that Hydrogen was an energy source for power generation that replaced fossil fuels, its demand was expanding in a wide range of fields, for example as fuels for ships and automobiles, and in the low carbon production of steel. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that hydrogen consumption could increase to 528 million tons per year by 2050, six times that of 2020. Among them, green hydrogen produced from recycled energy was attracting attention as a carbon-free fuel.

Latin American countries, which had vast territories, enabled low costs for renewable energy and had a lot of room for development, but their industrial agglomeration was behind that of developed countries. European companies had appealed that the development of green hydrogen could lead to industrial development and job creation, and would cooperate with national and local governments. In October, Engie agreed with the state of Ceara in northeastern Brazil to promote regional development centering on the production of green hydrogen.

Presence in Africa

European companies also had a presence in Africa. Norwegian solar power company Skatec announced in October that it would embark on green hydrogen production in Egypt. In Egypt, Siemens Energy and the Italian Hydrocarbon Corporation (ENI) had also announced that they would work on green hydrogen projects.

European companies were also entering Morocco and Tunisia. Plans had also been raised to export hydrogen from Algeria and elsewhere to Europe via existing natural gas pipelines.

The European Commission (EU), which emphasized hydrogen as an energy source for decarbonization, stated in a report issued in 2020 that "the EU prioritizes hydrogen that is derived from renewable energy." "North Africa, which is geographically close, may supply the EU with cost-competitive hydrogen derived from renewable energy", and the public and private sectors could work together to support hydrogen production in Africa.

When the German government announced that it would contribute 9 billion euros to launch the hydrogen industry in 2020, it said that "Germany's renewable energy storage capacity is limited" and that 2 billion euros could be used to foster the green hydrogen industry overseas. These subsidies were also used for Siemens' investment in Chile.

Japan gave priority to "gray hydrogen"

While Europe was working together with the public and private sectors to develop green hydrogen in emerging countries, the Japanese movement was sluggish. For the Japanese government, its Cabinet in October decided that in the basic energy plan regarding the power source composition, the ratio of hydrogen and ammonia would be 1% for 2030, but the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy had stated that it would "maximize the existing hydrogen supply source" and for the time being, and to maintain its stance of prioritizing the import of "gray hydrogen" derived from fossil fuels.

Although ENEOS, Iwatani Corp., and Kawasaki Heavy Industries etc. were moving toward importing green hydrogen produced in Australia, the scale was limited. The Japanese government said it would utilize up to 3 million tons of hydrogen by 2030, but most would be gray hydrogen. As the EU had said it would produce up to 10 million tones of green hydrogen in 2030, so the gap was likely to widen.

So, European companies have begun to move into South America and Africa to produce "green hydrogen” from renewable energy that is available at a low cost. I think these South America countries will become wealthier as they become major clean energy exporting counties. Meanwhile Japan is looking to Australia for green hydrogen and the scale is much smaller when compared to the Europeans.

西方如何邀請中國吃進其飯碗 (2 of 2)

Recently BBC News on-line reported the following:

How the West invited China to eat its lunch (2 of 2)

Faisal Islam - Economics editor

Fri., December 10, 2021, 11:51 p.m.

(continue)

Container ships are the juggernauts of global trade. In the five years after China joined the WTO, the number of containers on ships coming in and out of China doubled from 40 million to more than 80 million. By 2011, a decade after the country became a WTO member, the number of containers going in and out of China had more than trebled to 129 million.

Last year it was 245 million, and while about half of the containers going into China were empty, nearly all those leaving China were full of exports.

There has also been a massive expansion in China's highway network, which increased from 4,700km in 1997 to 161,000km by 2020, making it the largest network in the world, connecting 99% of cities with populations of over 200,000.

In addition to its state-of-the-art freight infrastructure, China also needs materials such as metals, minerals and fossil fuels to support its manufacturing boom. One material essential to China's burgeoning automotive and electrical appliance industries is steel. In 2005 China became, for the first time, a net exporter of steel, and has since become the world's largest exporter.

Through the 1990s, China's production of steel hovered at around 100 million tones per year. After WTO membership, it exploded to around 700 million tones by 2012 and exceeded one billion tones in 2020.

China now accounts for 57% of world production and produces significantly more steel on its own than the rest of the globe managed together back in 2001. The same goes for ceramic tiles, and plenty of other ingredients of industry.

In electronics, clothing, toys and furniture, China became the dominant source of supply, forcing down export prices all around the world. Economists noticed a "once-for-all" shock in global prices following China's WTO entry. China's clothing exports doubled between 2000 and 2005, and its share of the value of global trade went from one fifth to one third.

After 2005, production quotas in the textile industry were also lifted, leading to an even bigger production shift to China. However, as production in China became more expensive and production has shifted to developing countries such as Bangladesh and Vietnam, this has fallen back to 32% of clothes last year.

The Chinese minister responsible for WTO accession, Long Yongtu, made an admission reflecting on the past two decades. "I don't believe China's WTO accession was a historic job-killing mistake [for the US and the West]," he said. "However I recognize the allocation or the benefit is uneven. The complete picture is that when China got his own development, it also provided the rest of the world with a huge export market."

But there was a sting in the tail - that it was US politics that failed to account for the inevitable impact of Chinese competition on some sectors. "When the uneven distribution of wealth happens, a government should take measures to adjust that distribution through domestic policies, but it's not easy to do that," said Long Yongtu.

"Maybe blaming others much easier, but I don't think blaming others can help to solve the problem. In China's absence, the US manufacturing industry would move to Mexico."

He then relayed an anecdote of a Chinese glass manufacturer who struggled with opening a factory in the USA: "It's very difficult for him to find competitive workers there. He told me American workers' bellies are bigger than his," said the minister.

So right now we have come full circle. China has had significant economic success within the WTO. Right now the Biden administration seems in no hurry to change the obstructive policies of his predecessor there. The trade skepticism is very real. China has used WTO membership to go well beyond its earmarked role as workshop to the West.

It has, for example, strategically planned alliances to get access to significant amounts of the rare earth materials that should power the net zero climate change economic revolution. It has deployed the state behind industrial expansion around the world. The US is looking to contain China diplomatically and economically, and seeking allies in this endeavor in Europe and Asia.

As former US trade representative Barshefsky puts it, China has been "on this very divergent course for some time. What does that mean? A strengthening of a state-centric economic model fueled by massive subsidization to designated industries… the re-emergence of China as a great power, and the leader of what it calls the Fourth Industrial Revolution. This is a lot to handle. The WTO can't handle it."

So, 20 years on - the world transformed by a little-noticed decision. It's been a huge success for China. The intended geopolitical strategy of the West failed. Indeed, rather than China becoming more like the West politically, as a result of this decision, the West economically speaking is becoming a bit more like China.

Translation

(continue)

集裝箱船是全球貿易的主宰。中國加入世貿組織五年後，進出中國的船舶集裝箱數量翻了一番，從4000萬個增加到8000萬多個。到 2011 年，即中國加入 WTO 十年後，進出中國的集裝箱數量增加了三倍多，達到 1.29 億個。

去年是 2.45 億個，雖然進入中國的集裝箱約有一半是空的，但幾乎所有離開中國的集裝箱都裝滿了出口。

中國的公路網也得到了大規模擴張，從 1997 年的 4,700 公里增加到 2020 年的 161,000 公里，成為世界上最大的公路網，連接了超過 20 萬人的城市的99%人口。

除了最先進的貨運基礎設施，中國還需要金屬、礦物和化石燃料等材料來支持其製造業繁榮。對於中國蓬勃發展的汽車和電器行業來說，一種必不可少的材料是鋼鐵。 2005年，中國首次成為鋼鐵淨出口國，並成為世界第一大出口國。

到 1990 年代，中國的鋼鐵產量每年徘徊在 1 億噸左右。加入世貿組織後，它在 2012 年激增至約 7 億噸，並在 2020 年超過 10 億噸。

中國現在佔世界產量的 57%，而且中國自己生產的鋼鐵, 比 2001 年全球其他地區的總產量要多得多。瓷磚和許多其他工業成分也是如此。

在電子、服裝、玩具和家具方面，中國成為主要供應來源，迫使世界各地的出口價格下降。經濟學家注意到，在中國加入世貿組織後，全球價格出現了“一次過”的衝擊。 在2000 年至 2005 年中國的服裝出口翻了一番，佔全球貿易額的份額從五分之一上升到三分之一。

在2005年後，紡織業的生產配額也被免除，導致更大的生產轉移到中國。然而，隨著中國的生產變得更加昂貴以及生產轉移到孟加拉國和越南等發展中國家，這一服裝比例已回落至去年的 32%。

負責加入世貿組織的中國部長龍永圖Long Yongtu回顧加入後過去的二十年。 他說: “我不認為中國加入世貿組織是一個歷史性的扼殺工作崗位的錯誤 [對美國和西方來說]”。 “但我承認分配或收益是不平衡的。整體情況是，當中國獲得自己的發展時，它也為世界其他地區提供了一個巨大的出口市場。”

但這有一個出乎意料及令人不快或的結局是 - 美國的政治沒有考慮到中國競爭對某些行業的不可避免的影響。 龍永圖說: “當財富分配不均時，政府應該採取措施通過國內政策來調整分配，但這是並不容易是做到的”。

“也許指責別人容易得多，但我認為指責別人無助於解決問題。如果沒有中國，美國製造業將轉移到墨西哥。”

隨後，他講述了一位中國玻璃製造商在美國開廠時遇到的困難 - 部長說:“他很難在那裡找到有競爭力的工人。他告訴我，美國工人的肚腩比他的還大”。

所以現在我們已經回到了原點。中國在世貿組織內取得了巨大的經濟成功。目前，拜登政府似乎並不急於改變其前任在那裡的阻撓政策。對貿易的懷疑是非常真實。中國利用世貿組織成員資格遠遠超出了其作為西方工廠的指定角色。

例如，它有戰略規劃的聯盟，以獲得大量的稀土材料，這些材料應該為淨零氣候變化經濟革命提供動力。它署了國家在全球工業擴張的背後。美國正在尋求在外交和經濟上遏制中國，並在歐洲和亞洲尋求盟友進行這一努力。

正如前美國貿易代表Barshefsky所說，中國“在這條非常不同的道路上已經有一段時間了。這意味著什麼？通過對指定行業的大規模補貼來加強以國家為中心的經濟模式……中國的重新崛起作為一個大國，它的領導者稱之為第四次工業革命。這要處理很多事情。世貿組織是無法處理” 。

因此，20 年後 - 世界因一個鮮為人知的決定而改變。對中國來說這是一個巨大的成功。西方預期的地緣政治戰略失敗了。事實上，作為這一決定的結果，中國在政治上並沒有變得更像西方，而是在經濟西方上變得更像中國。

        So, 20 years after joining the WTO it's been a huge success for China. Indeed, rather than China becoming more like the West politically, China gains economic strength and confidence to challenge the West in many respects. The confrontation between China and the western powers will continue.

西方如何邀請中國吃進其飯碗 (1 of 2)

Recently BBC News on-line reported the following:

How the West invited China to eat its lunch (1 of 2)

Faisal Islam - Economics editor

Fri., December 10, 2021, 11:51 p.m.

There were two events in late 2001 that shook the axis of the world.

The world was preoccupied with the immediate aftermath of 9/11. But exactly three months later, on 11 December, the World Trade Organization (WTO) was at the centre of an event that was to cast as strong a shadow over the 21st century, changing more people's lives and livelihoods around the world than the attacks on America.

Yet few know it even happened, let alone its date. China's admission to the World Trade Organization changed the game for America, Europe and most of Asia, and indeed for any country in possession of industrially valuable resources, such as oil and metals.

It was a largely unnoticed event of epic geopolitical and economic importance. It was the root imbalance behind the global financial crisis. The domestic political backlash against the outsourcing of manufacturing jobs to China has reverberated around the western G7 nations.

The promise, suggested by the likes of former US President Bill Clinton, was that "importing one of democracy's most cherished values, economic freedom", would enable the world's most populous nation to follow the path of political freedom too.

"When individuals have the power not just to dream, but to realize their dreams, they will demand a greater say," he said.

But that strategy failed. China began its ascent to its current status as the world's second biggest economy - and is on a seemingly inevitable path to becoming the world's biggest.

Indeed the US trade representative responsible for negotiating China's WTO deal, Charlene Barshefsky, told a Washington International Trade Association panel this week that China's economic model "somewhat disproved" the Western view that "you can't have an innovative society, and political control"

"It's not to say that China's innovative capacity is enhanced by its economic model," she added. "But it is to say that what the West thought were incompatible systems may not be necessarily incompatible systems."

Up until 2000 China's global economic role had been principally as one of the world's biggest manufacturers of plastic gubbins and cheap tat. Important, yes, but neither world-beating nor world-changing.

China's accession to the top table of world trade heralded a massive global transformation. A powerful combination of China's willing workforce, its super-high-tech factories, and the special relationship between the Chinese government and Western multinational corporations changed the face of the planet.

An army of cheap Chinese labor began to produce the goods that underpin Western living standards, as China seamlessly inserted itself into the supply chains of the world's biggest companies. Economists call it a "supply shock", and its impact certainly was shocking. Its effects are still reverberating around the world.

China's integration into the world economy has seen significant economic achievements, including the eradication of extreme poverty, which stood at 500 million before WTO membership and is now basically zero as the value of the economy, in dollar terms, increased 12-fold. Foreign exchange reserves increased 16-fold to $2.3 trillion, as the world's purchases from China's workshops were banked by the Chinese state.

In 2000, China was the seventh-largest goods exporter in the world, but it quickly reached the number one spot. China's annual growth rate, already at 8%, went stratospheric at the height of the world boom, peaking at 14%, and stabilized at 15% last year.

(to be continued)

Translation

2001 年末有兩件事震動了世界軸心。

全世界都在關注 9/11 的直接後果。但就在三個月後，即 12 月 11 日，世界貿易組織 (WTO) 成為了一場事件的中心，這場事件給 21 世紀投下了同樣強大的陰影，改變了全世界人民的生活和生計，但不是襲擊美國。

然而很少有人知道它發生了，更不用說它的日期。中國加入世界貿易組織改變了美國、歐洲和亞洲大部分地區的遊戲規則，也改變了任何擁有具有工業價值的資源的國家, 例如石油和金屬等。

這是一個在很大程度上被忽視的具地緣政治和經濟重要性的事件。這是全球金融危機的失衡的背後根源。國內反對將製造業工作崗位外給中國的政治反彈已在西方 G7 國家引起反響。

美國前總統克林頓 (Bill Clinton)等人提出的承諾是，“引入民主最珍貴的價值之一:經濟自由”，將使世界上人口最多的國家也走上政治自由的道路。

他說:“當個人不僅有能力做夢，而且有能力實現夢想時，他們會要求更大的發言權”。

但是這個策略失敗了。中國開始上升到目前世界第二大經濟體的地位 - 而且似乎是向必會成為世界最大經濟體之路進發。

事實上，負責談判中國 WTO 協議的美國貿易代表Charlene Barshefsky 本週在華盛頓國際貿易協會的一個小組中表示，中國的經濟模式“在一定程度上反駁了”西方的觀點，即“你不能擁有一個有創意但同時有政治控制的社會” 。

她補充道:“這並不是說中國的創新能力是因其經濟模式而強大”; “但這就是說，西方認為不兼容的系統並不一定就是不能兼容” 。

直到 2000 年，中國在全球經濟中的作用, 主要是作為世界上最大的塑料雜物和廉價紡織品製造商之一。這很重要，是的，但既不能成世界之冠，也不能改變世界。

中國躋身世界貿易榜首群之中，預示著一場大規模的全球變革。中國自願的勞動力、超級高科技工廠, 以及中國政府與西方跨國公司之間的特殊關係的強大組合改變了地球的面貌。

隨著中國無縫地融入世界大公司的供應鏈，廉價的中國勞動力大軍開始生產商品支撐西方生活水平。經濟學家稱其為“供應衝擊”，其影響當然令人震驚。它的影響仍在世界範圍內迴盪。

中國融入世界經濟取得了顯著的經濟成就，包括消除極端貧困，在加入世貿組織之前，貧困人口為5億，現在基本為零，經濟價值以美元計算增長了12倍。外匯儲備增加了 16 倍，達到 2.3 萬億美元，因為世界從中國工廠購買的商品的錢是被中國政府存入銀行。

2000年，中國是世界第七大商品出口國，但很快就躍居第一。中國的年增長率已經達到了 8%，在世界經濟繁榮的高峰期間達到14%的頂峰，並在去年穩定在 15%。

（待續）

US consumer price index in November rose 6.8% year-on-year, the highest level in 39 years

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

11月の米消費者物価指数 前年同月比6.8％上昇 39年ぶり高水準

2021年12月10日 23時57分

アメリカの先月の消費者物価指数は前の年の同じ月と比べて6.8％の上昇と39年ぶりの高い水準になりました。

記録的なインフレに対し、金融政策も対応を迫られることになりそうです。

アメリカ労働省が10日発表した先月の消費者物価指数は前の年の同じ月と比べて6.8％の上昇と、1982年6月以来、およそ39年ぶりの高い水準を記録しました。

消費者物価はことし5月に5％台、10月に6％台となり、中央銀行にあたるFRB＝連邦準備制度理事会が目標とする2％程度を大きく上回る水準が続いてきましたが、今回、インフレ圧力が一段と強まりました。

これは、景気の回復でさまざまなモノやサービスの需要が高まっているのに対し、港の混雑や人手不足といったサプライチェーン＝供給網の混乱で品不足などが起き幅広く値上げの動きが出ているためです。

項目別では「食品」が6.1％、ホテルなどの「宿泊施設」が25.5％の上昇となったほか、「ガソリン」は58.1％の上昇でした。

FRBのパウエル議長は先月、物価の上昇は一時的だという見解を修正し、インフレに対処するため、景気を下支えしてきた量的緩和策を前倒しして終了させる必要性に言及しています。

来週14日と15日に金融政策を決める会合があり、具体的な対応が焦点になります。

Translation

Last month's consumer price index in the United States rose 6.8% from the same month of the previous year, the highest level in 39 years.

Monetary policy was likely to be forced to respond to the record inflation.

Last month's consumer price index, released by the US Ministry of Labor on the 10th, rose 6.8% from the same month of the previous year, the highest level in about 39 years since June 1982.

Consumer prices had risen to the 5% level in May and to the 6% level in October, far exceeding the 2% target set by the Fed, the central bank, as this time the inflationary pressure had increased further.

This was because as demand for various goods and services was increasing due to the economic recovery, there was a widespread movement to raise prices due to supply chain = supply network disruptions such as port congestion and labor shortages.

By item, "food" increased by 6.1%, "accommodation facilities" such as hotels increased by 25.5%, and "gasoline" increased by 58.1%.

Fed Chair Powell last month revised his view that rising prices were temporary, and cited the need to end quantitative easing measures ahead of schedule that were underpinning the economy.

There would be a meeting to decide monetary policy on the 14th and 15th next week, and the focus would on the concrete measures to be announced.

So, in the US the quantitative easing measures that are currently underpinning its economy will end ahead of schedule.

NASA launches laser experimental device - has a potential to bring innovation to space communications

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

ＮＡＳＡ、レーザー実証装置を打ち上げ　宇宙通信に革新もたらす可能性

2021.12.08 Wed posted at 20:30 JST

  （ＣＮＮ） 宇宙空間で不可視のレーザーを使用する計画はまるでＳＦの世界のことのように聞こえるかもしれないが、これは現実だ。

ＮＡＳＡの「レーザー通信中継実証装置」は、太陽系各地で行われる将来のミッションとの通信のあり方に変革をもたらす可能性がある。

ＮＡＳＡによると、これらのレーザーを使うことで、かつてない高解像度の動画や写真を宇宙から送信できるようになる可能性があるという。

実証装置は米東部時間の７日午前５時１９分、国防総省宇宙試験プログラムの人工衛星に搭載されてフロリダ州ケープカナベラルから打ち上げられた。打ち上げはもともと５日に予定されていたが、ロケット推進剤の地上貯蔵システムで漏出が見つかり日程が変更となった。漏出は７日の打ち上げ前に修復された。

ＮＡＳＡは１９５８年以来、飛行士や宇宙探査機との交信に電波を使ってきた。電波の有効性は実証済みだが、宇宙ミッションはかつてなく複雑になり、収集する情報も増えている。

赤外線レーザーの特徴をつかむには、遅くてイライラするダイヤルアップとは対照的な光通信の高速インターネットを思い浮かべれば良い。レーザー通信なら地表上空３万５４０６メートルの対地同期軌道から、毎秒１．２ギガバイトのスピードでデータを送信できる。これは映画丸１本を１分未満でダウンロードする速度に相当する。

これによりデータ伝送速度は電波の１０～１００倍に向上する。我々の目に見えない赤外線レーザーは電波より波長が短いことから、一度により多くのデータを送信できる。

現在の電波システムを使った場合、火星の完全な地図の送信に要する時間は９週間だが、レーザーなら９日間で送信できる可能性がある。

この「レーザー通信中継実証装置」は、宇宙からカリフォルニア州テーブルマウンテンとハワイ州ハレアカラにある光地上局２カ所へとデータを送受信するＮＡＳＡ初の端末間レーザー中継システムとなる。これらの地上局には、レーザーから受け取った光をデジタルデータに変換する望遠鏡がある。

地上のレーザー受信施設にとって一つ障害になるのが雲や乱気流といった大気の乱れで、大気中を伝わるレーザー信号に干渉する場合がある。受信機２基の設置場所に遠隔地が選ばれたのはこれを念頭に置いた対応であり、どちらも標高が高く気象条件が良いことが決め手となった。

 人工衛星が軌道に到着すると、ニューメキシコ州ラスクルーセスの運用センターのチームがレーザー通信中継実証装置を作動させ、試験データを地上局に送信する準備を整える。

実際に宇宙ミッションの支援を開始するまでには２年間の試験や実験が必要となる。国際宇宙ステーション（ＩＳＳ）には将来的に光通信装置が搭載され、科学実験のデータを人工衛星を介して地球に送ることが可能になりそうだ。

実証装置が中継衛星の役割を果たすことから、将来の探査機が地球への直接の照準線を備えたアンテナを搭載する必要はなくなる。これにより、将来の宇宙機の通信に必要なサイズや重量、動力の条件が緩和され、打ち上げ費用の低減や観測機器を積むスペースの拡大につながる可能性があるという。

Translation

  (CNN) The plan to use an invisible laser in outer space might sound like a thing in the science fiction world, but it was a reality.

NASA's "Laser communication relay experimental device" had the potential to revolutionize the   future missions and communication ways to be done in various parts of the solar system.

According to NASA, this laser had the potential to send unprecedented high-definition videos and photos from space.

An experimental device was launched from Cape Canaveral, Florida at 5:19 am EST on the 7th, on board was an artificial satellite of the Department of Defense Space Test Program. The launch was originally scheduled for the 5th, but was changed due to a leak found in the rocket propellant ground storage system. The leak was repaired before the launch on the 7th.

NASA had been using radio waves to communicate with aviators and space probes since 1958. Although the effectiveness of radio waves had been proven, space missions were more complex than ever and more information was being collected.

In order to capture the characteristics of infrared laser, thought of the high-speed Internet of optical communication as opposed to slow and frustrating dial-up. With laser communication, data could be transmitted at a speed of 1.2 gigabytes per second from a geosynchronous orbit of 35,406 meters above the surface of the earth. This corresponded to the speed of downloading a whole movie in less than a minute.

As a result, the data transmission speed would be improved 10 to 100 times compared to that of radio waves. Infrared laser that was invisible had a shorter wavelength than radio waves, so it could transmit more data at any one time.

When using the current radio systems, it took nine weeks to send a complete map of Mars, but if it was laser, it could be sent in nine days.

This "Laser communication relay experimental device" would be NASA's first terminal-to-terminal laser relay system that sent and received data from space to two optical ground stations in Table Mountain, California and Haleakala in Hawaii. These ground stations had telescopes that converted the light received from the laser into digital data.

One obstacle to laser receiving facilities on the ground was the atmospheric turbulence such as clouds and eddy, which could interfere with laser signals transmitted through the atmosphere. With this in mind, a remote location was selected as the installation location for the two receivers, the deciding factor was that the altitude was high and the weather conditions were good.

When the satellite arrived in orbit, a team at the Operations Center in Las Cruces, New Mexico would activate the laser communication relay experimental device, and prepared to send the test data to the ground station.

Two years of testing and experimentation could be required before the actual starting of support for the Space Mission. The International Space Station (ISS) could be equipped with optical communication equipment for the future, and it was likely that it might be possible to send scientific experiment data to the earth via artificial satellites.

Since the experimental device acts as a relay satellite, future spacecraft would not need to be equipped with an antenna with a direct line of sight to the earth. This could ease the size, weight, and power conditions required for future spacecraft communications, which might lead to a reduction in launch costs and an increase in the storage for putting observing equipment.

              So, NASA's "Laser communication relay experimental device" has the potential to revolutionize the future space missions and way of communication. Laser has the potential to send unprecedented high-definition videos and photos from space to earth in a very short period of time.

China's birth rate is the lowest since its founding - Will the population start declining this year?

Recently NHK News On-line reported the following:

中国の出生率、建国以来最低を記録　今年から人口減少か

2021.12.02 Thu posted at 20:20 JST

香港（ＣＮＮ） 中国の出生率は昨年、１９４９年の建国以来、最低を記録したことが分かった。出生率の低下はさらに続き、今年から人口が減少に転じるとの見方もある。

国家統計局が先月末に公表した統計年鑑によると、昨年の出生率（人口１０００人あたりの出生数）は８．５にとどまった。

今年５月に発表された国勢調査の結果でも、昨年生まれた子どもは１２００万人と、一昨年の１４６５万人から１８％も急減していた。

専門家らはこれまで、中国の人口が今後数十年のうちに減少に転じるとの見通しを示してきたが、それが大きく前倒しになる可能性も指摘されている。

北京大学の経済学者、ジェームズ・リアン教授は暫定データに基づく予測として、「今年の出生数は１０００万前後かそれ以下となる可能性が非常に高い」との見方を示す。

広州市の人口学者、ホー・ヤフ氏も各地方当局からのデータに基づき、今年の出生数を９５０万～１０５０万と見積もっている。中国の近年の年間死者数は１０００万人前後。出生数がこれを下回れば、人口は減ることになる。

同氏は先月、ＳＮＳへの投稿で「中国の人口は２０２１年からマイナス成長となる可能性が非常に高い」という見解を示した。５月の時点では国勢調査の結果を受け、人口減少が２２年に始まると予想していたが、「当時の予測は楽観的すぎたようだ」と書いている。

出生率はほかにも多くの国で低下傾向にあるが、中国では特に「一人っ子政策」の影響で大きく落ち込んだ。一人っ子政策は１５年に廃止され、夫婦１組につき２人まで子どもを持つことが認められたが、出生率は翌年上昇した後、再び下がり続けている。

当局はさらに第３子を容認する方針を示したものの、大きな効果は期待できないとの見方が強い。

中国の合計特殊出生率（１人の女性が生涯に産むと見込まれる子どもの数）は１．３と、日本の１．３４よりさらに低い。

合計特殊出生率が中国を下回る数少ない国としては、シンガポール（１．１）や韓国（０．８４）が挙げられる。中国の少子化は今後も続き、まもなくこうした数値に並ぶだろうと、リアン教授は予測する。上海や北京などの大都市ではすでに０．７前後と、世界最低レベルにあるという。

人口の高齢化と労働人口の減少は、中国の経済や社会の安定を大きく揺るがしかねない。

高齢化に圧迫される若者たちの間では、すでに非婚化が進んでいる。統計年鑑によると、昨年届け出のあった結婚は８１０万件と、７年連続で減少。１３年のピークからは４０％減となった。

地方当局は一人っ子政策の時代から一転して、子育て世帯への現金支給や育児休暇延長などの支援策を打ち出している。だが企業側がそのコストを負うとなれば、余計な負担を避けようとする力が働き、女性がかえって不利な状況に追い込まれることも懸念される。

中国で急増する中間所得層にとって最大の問題は、子育てにかかる費用だ。リアン教授は、地方だけでなく中央政府が子育て手当や税制優遇措置などの経済的支援を講じ、保育施設の整備などに力を入れるべきだと主張する。

子どもを産まない理由として、住居費や教育費の高さを上げる声も多い。政府が最近、学習塾への締め付けを強めているのは、家庭の教育費負担を軽減するのが狙いとみられているが、リアン教授はこれを「対症療法にすぎない」と批判。長期的な解決策として、大学入試制度の改革を提案している。

Translation

 Hong Kong (CNN) - China's birth rate last year turned out to be the lowest since its founding in 1949. There was also a view that the birth rate would continue to decline and the population would begin to decline starting from this year.

According to the Statistical Yearbook released by the National Bureau of Statistics at the end of last month, the birth rate (number of births per 1,000 people) stood at 8.5 last year.

According to the results of the census released in May this year, the number of children born last year was 12 million, a sharp decrease of 18% from 14.65 million two years ago.

While experts had previously predicted that China's population could begin to decline in the coming decades, they had also pointed out that it could beome significantly ahead of schedule.

Based on preliminary data Peking University economist Professor James Lian (ジェームズ・リアン) said, "It's very likely that this year's births will be around 10 million or less".

Guangzhou city demographer Ho Yahu (ホー・ヤフ) also estimated the number of births this year to be between 9.5 million and 10.5 million based on data from local authorities while the annual death toll in China in recent years was around 10 million. If the number of births fell below this, the population would decrease.

He said in a post on SNS last month that "China's population is very likely to experience negative growth from 2021". As of May, he expected the population to decline beginning 2022 based on the results of the census, but afterwards he wrote that "the forecast made at that time seemed too optimistic."

Birth rates were declining in many other countries, but in China it had fallen sharply, especially due to the "one-child policy." The one-child policy was abolished in 2015, allowing individual couple to have up to two children, this had increased the birth rate in the following year but the rate continued to decline after that.

Authorities had indicated that they would allow the third child, but there were strong views that no significant effect could be expected

China's total fertility rate (the number of children a woman is expected to give birth in her lifetime) was 1.3, which was even lower than Japan's 1.34.

Singapore (1.1) and South Korea (0.84) were among the few countries with a total fertility rate (TFR) lower than China. Professor Lian predicted that China's declining birthrate could continue and might soon be in line with these figures. In big cities such as Shanghai and Beijing, it was already around 0.7, which was the lowest level in the world.

The aging of the population and the declining working population could greatly shake the stability of China's economy and society.

Among young people who were under pressure from the aging population, not-to-marriage was already progressing. According to the Statistical Yearbook, the number of marriages reported last year was 8.1 million, down for the seventh consecutive year. It decreased by 40% from the peak in 2013.

Local authorities had turned around from the one-child policy era and came up with support measures such as cash payments to child-rearing households and extension of childcare leave. However, if the companies were to bear the cost, it was feared that this would start a force to avoid the extra burden, and the female could be forced into a disadvantageous situation.

The biggest problem for the rapidly increasing middle-income group in China was the cost of raising children. Professor Lian argued that not only the local government but also the central government should provide financial support such as childcare allowances and tax incentives, and focused on the development of childcare facilities.

Many people said that the rising cost of housing and education was a reason for not having children. The government's recent tightening control over cram schools was believed to be aiming at reducing the burden of education costs at home, but Professor Lian criticized this as "only a makeshift treatment". He proposed to reform the college entrance examination system as a long-term solution.

              So, China's birth rate last year turned out to be the lowest since its founding in 1949. There is a view that the birth rate would continue to drop and the population may begin to decline starting from 2021. As the aging of the population and the declining of working population may shake the stability of China's economy and society, I am interested in knowing how China will handle this.

中國表示到2025年會有85%的公民使用普通話

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China says 85% of citizens will use Mandarin by 2025

Tue., November 30, 2021, 11:55 p.m.

BEIJING (AP) — China is launching an aggressive campaign to promote Mandarin, saying 85% of its citizens will use the national language by 2025.

The move appears to put threatened Chinese regional dialects such as Cantonese and Hokkien under even greater pressure, along with minority languages such as Tibetan, Mongolian and Uyghur.

The order issued Tuesday by the State Council, China’s Cabinet, said use of Mandarin, known in Chinese as “putonghua" or the “common tongue," remains “unbalanced and inadequate” and needs to be improved to meet the demands of the modern economy.

Critics have sporadically protested changes to the education system and employment requirements that have steadily eroded the role of minority languages, calling it a campaign to eradicate cultures that don’t conform with the dominant Han ethnic group.

Along with the 2025 goal, the policy aims to make Mandarin virtually universal by 2035, including in rural areas and among ethnic minorities.

The promotion of Mandarin over other languages has sparked occasional protests, including last year in the Inner Mongolia region when the Mongolian language was replaced by standard Mandarin as the language of instruction.

China's ruling Communist Party has denounced all such movements as a form of separatism and repressed them ruthlessly. It says language conformity is necessary for the sake of the economy and national unity.

The policy is backed up by legal requirements and the document issued Wednesday demanded strengthened supervision to “ensure that the national common spoken and written language is used as the official language of government agencies and used as the basic language of schools, news and publications, radio, film and television, public services and other fields."

It calls also on officials to “vigorously enhance the international status and influence of Chinese" in academia, international organizations and at global gatherings.

Government attempts to promote Mandarin through its worldwide network of Confucius Institutes have been controversial, with critics denouncing them as an attempt to promote the party's agenda and quash discussion of topics such its human rights record.

Translation

北京（美聯社）- 中國正在發起一場積極推廣普通話的運動，稱到 2025 年，85% 的公民將使用國語。

此舉似乎使受到威脅的中國地方方言例如粵語和福建話, 以及藏語、蒙古語和維吾爾語等少數民族語言面臨更大壓力。

在週二中國國務院, 即中國的內閣,發布命令稱，使用用 “國語”, 亦叫 “普通話”或 “通用語”,仍然“不平衡和不足”，需要改進以適應現代經濟的需求。

批評者時不時抗議教育制度和就業要求的變化，這些變化穩步削弱了少數民族語言的地位，稱這是一場剷除不符合在主流地位的漢族文化的運動。

根隨着2025 年的目標，該政策旨在到 2035 年使普通話幾乎全面普及，包括在農村地區和少數民族中。

推廣普通話以替代其他語言偶爾會引發抗議，包括去年在內蒙古地區，蒙古語被標準普通話取代作為教學語言。

中國執政的共產黨譴責所有此類抗議運動是一種分裂主義，並對其進行無情鎮壓。共產黨說為了經濟和民族團結，語言統一是必要的。

該政策以法律要求去支撑，週三​​發布的文件要求加強監管，以“確保普通話在語言及文字成為政府機構的官方語;  並在學校、新聞及出版、電台廣播、影視、公共服務等領域作為基本語去使用” 。

它還呼籲官員們在學術界、國際組織和全球聚會上“大力提昇國語的國際地位和影響力”。

政府通過其遍布全球的孔子學院網絡推廣普通話的嘗試一直存在爭議，批評人士譴責這是企圖宣傳黨的議程並打壓其人權記錄等話題的討論。

              So, China is launching an aggressive campaign to promote Mandarin, saying that 85% of its citizens will use the national language by 2025. It also calls on officials to “vigorously enhance the international status and influence of Chinese" in academia, international organizations and at global gatherings. What an ambitious project it is.

歐盟公佈3,000億歐元去回應中國的“一帶一路”

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

EU unveils 300 billion euro answer to China's Belt and Road

Wed., December 1, 2021, 3:15 a.m.

By Jan Strupczewski

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Commission unveiled on Wednesday a plan to invest 300 billion euros ($340 billion) globally by 2027 in infrastructure, digital and climate projects as a better alternative to China's Belt and Road Initiative.

The scheme, called Global Gateway, is to strengthen Europe's supply chains, boost EU trade and help fight climate change, focusing on digitalization, health, climate and energy and transport sectors, as well as education and research.

China launched its Belt and Road project in 2013 to boost trade links with the rest of the world and has been spending heavily on the development of infrastructure in dozens of countries around the world.

But EU officials say financing offered by Beijing is often unfavorable, not transparent, and makes some poorer countries, especially in Africa, dependent on China through debt.

Unlike China, the EU would ensure local communities benefited from the infrastructure projects under Global Gateway and would also bring with it the private sector, for which EU involvement meant the investment was less risky, European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen said.

"Indeed, countries ... need better and different offers (to China's initiative)," von der Leyen told a news conference, unveiling the EU scheme, which she called "a true alternative".

EU money, in the form of grants, loans and guarantees, will come from the bloc's institutions, governments, as well as EU financial institutions and national development banks. It would be offered "under fair and favorable terms" so as not to leave governments of third countries with a debt problem, the Commission said.

EU International Partnerships Commissioner Jutta Urpilainen told the news conference the amount of money the EU was spending on development aid was similar to China's.

"If I look at the statistics, between 2013 and 2018 Europe has been the largest provider of development assistance in the world and our development assistance, which is purely grants, for 2013-2018, is very close to the reported Belt and Road initiative projects provided by China," she said.

"We are very much at the same level but our modalities have been different. We have been providing grants and China has been providing loans," she said.

The EU plan will focus on physical infrastructure, like fibre optic cables, clean transport corridors and clean power transmission lines to strengthen digital, transport and energy networks, the Commission said.

It said that by helping other countries the EU would also promote its own interests and strengthen its supply chains, the vulnerability of which became apparent during the COVID-19 pandemic.

($1 = 0.8824 euros)

(Reporting by Jan Strupczewski; Editing by John Chalmers, William Maclean and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

Translation

 布魯塞爾（路透社) - 歐盟委員會周三公佈了一項計劃，到 2027 年在全球投資 3000 億歐元（3,400 億美元）用於基礎設施, 數字和氣候項目, 作為替代中國“一帶一路”倡議的更好方案。

該計劃名為“全球通道” (Global Gateway)，旨在加強歐洲的供應鏈, 促進歐盟貿易, 並幫助應對氣候變化，重點地關注數字化、健康、氣候和能源及運輸領域, 以及教育和研究。

中國於 2013 年啟動了“一帶一路”項目，以促進與世界其他地區的貿易聯繫，並在全球數十個國家斥巨資發展基礎設施。

但歐盟官員表示，北京提供的融資往往不優惠且不透明，這使得一些較貧窮的國家，尤其是非洲國家，因爲債務而依賴中國。

歐盟委員會主席烏爾蘇拉·馮德萊恩 (Ursula von der Leyen) 表示，與中國不同的是，歐盟將確保當地社區從 Global Gateway 的基礎設施項目中受益，並將帶來民間經濟，歐盟的參與意味著投資風險是較低。

馮德萊恩在新聞發布會上說: “確實，各國……（對中國的倡議），需要更好和不同的提議”; 她揭開了歐盟的計劃，稱之為“真正的替代方案”。

歐盟的資金，是用贈款、貸款和擔保的形式，將來自歐盟的機構、政府以及歐盟金融機構和國家開發銀行。歐盟委員會表示，它將“以公平和優惠的條件”提供，以免給第三國政府帶來債務問題。

歐盟國際夥伴關係專員Jutta Urpilainen 在新聞發布會上表示，歐盟在援助發展上的開支與中國相似。

她說: “如果我查看統計數據，在 2013 年至 2018 年間，歐洲一直是世界上最大的發展援助提供者，而我們的發展援助都純粹是贈, 在 2013 年至 2018 年期間與被報導由中國提供的 ‘一帶一路’ 倡議項目非常接近”。

她說: “我們在很大程度上處於同一水平，但我們的方式有所不同。我們一直在提供贈款，而中國一直在提供貸款”。

歐盟委員會表示，歐盟計劃將側重於實質基礎設施，如光纖電纜、清潔運輸走廊和清潔電力傳輸線，以便加強數字、運輸和能源網絡。

委員會表示，通過幫助其他國家，歐盟也將促進自身利益並壮大其供應鏈。在 COVID-19 大流行期間，供應鏈的脆弱性變得明顯。

（1 美元 = 0.8824 歐元）

              So, looking at the statistics, between 2013 and 2018 Europe has been the largest provider of development assistance in the world and its development assistance, which is purely grants, and is very close to the reported Belt and Road initiative projects provided by China.