新興国、止まらぬ資金流出 100日で10兆円超
2020年5月3日 2:00 ［有料会員限定記事］
新興国からの資金流出がとまらない。4月末まで100日間に流出した域外マネーは約1000億ドル（約10.7兆円）に上り、流出ペースはリーマン・ショックの約4倍に達した。新型コロナウイルスの感染拡大で急速に進む財政悪化への不安が強まっているためだ。急速な通貨安で新興国のドル建て債務の負担はさらに増す。米日欧の中央銀行による大量資金供給で市場は落ち着きを取り戻したかに見えるが、新興国が新たな火種になりかねない。
国際金融協会（IIF）が、新型コロナの感染拡大が中国で本格化した1月20日を起点に、4月29日までの100日間の資金流出の累計額を算出したところ、1000億7000万ドルに達した。100日間の流出ペースを過去と比べると2008年のリーマン・ショック（約236億ドル）の4.2倍、15年の中国ショック（約95億ドル）の約11倍で、コロナ禍の衝撃の大きさを映している。
急速な資金流出は新興国通貨の相場急落を招いている。19年末比の対ドル相場の落ち込みが目立つのが約27%下げたブラジルレアルで、4月下旬に最安値を更新した。25%超下げた南アフリカランドや15%安のトルコリラも最安値圏だ。
背景には新興国の財政の持続性への懸念がある。コロナ禍による民間需要の落ち込みを埋める経済対策や医療の整備で財政支出は急速に膨らむ。マレーシアでは国内総生産（GDP）の18%に当たる対策を打ち出した。インドネシアは1997年のアジア通貨危機の再発を防ぐ目的で設けた財政規律ルールを一時的に棚上げした。
国際通貨基金（IMF）は新興国の20年の財政赤字がGDP比8.9%になると予測する。半年前の予測の1.8倍に急拡大した。インドネシアや南アフリカは同比率が過去最大に膨らむ。ブラジルなど産油国は原油安の打撃も重なる。
感染拡大がピークを越えた中国は通貨がひとまず安定しているが、通貨安に苦しむ新興国では感染はまだ拡大中だ。新興国全体の1日あたりの新規感染者は、4月初めの1万人超から下旬には一時約3.8万人まで急増。感染拡大に歯止めをかけられなければ、さらなる財政対応を迫られる。
米格付け大手S&Pグローバル・レーティングは1月以降、20カ国の信用格付けを下げた。中期的に格下げの懸念がある「格下げ予備軍」も15カ国に及ぶ。20年通年の格下げは、欧州債務危機で信用不安が広がった11年以来の多さになる可能性がある。
信用リスクに傷がつけば、債務返済への疑念が高まり、国債金利の上昇など悪循環に結びつく。エクアドルは原油価格急落で財政が行き詰まり事実上のデフォルト（債務不履行）に陥った。
記録的な水準に積み上がった新興国の借金は世界経済の先行きに暗い影を落とす。IIFによると政府・民間分あわせた負債は71兆ドルと過去最大で、GDPの2.2倍にも及ぶ。同比率はリーマン危機前の07年でも1.5倍弱だった。負債の1割程度はドル建てで、通貨安はドルで支払う利子や元本の負担を実質的に重くする。
「あらゆる範囲の手段を使う」。米連邦準備理事会（FRB）のパウエル議長は4月29日、追加の経済下支え策を検討する考えを示した。世界の中銀が必死に市場の火消しに動くものの、新興国が市場混乱の「第2波」を招くリスクは消えていない。（竹内弘文）
Translation
The outflow of funds from emerging countries was not
stopping. The amount of foreign money that had flowed out in 100 days up to the
end of April amounted to about 100 billion dollars (about 10.7 trillion yen),
and the rate of outflow was about four times that of the Lehman shock. This was due
to a growing concern over the rapid deterioration of financial status caused by
the spread of the new coronavirus. The rapid depreciation of the currency might
further increase the burden of dollar-denominated debt in emerging countries.
It seemed that markets had regained their composure due to the large amount of
funding provided by the respective central banks of the US, Japan, and Europe,
but emerging countries could become a new spark.
The International Financial Institution (IIF) calculated the
cumulative amount of funds outflow for 100 days, starting from January 20th
when the spread of new corona infection in China began in earnest until April
29, had reached 100.70 billion dollars. Compared to the past, the 100-day
outflow pace was 4.2 times that of the Lehman shock in 2008 (about $ 23.6
billion), and about 11 times the China shock in 2015 (about $ 9.5 billion). It
reflected the magnitude of the impact of the Corona.
The rapid outflow of funds had led to a sharp drop in
emerging market currencies. The Brazilian real, which saw a 27% decrease in
prices against the US dollar compared to the end of 2019, was at the lowest in
late April. South African rand, which had dropped more than 25%, together with
Turkish lira, which was 15% cheaper, were also in the lowest range.
In the background, there was concern about the financial
sustainability of emerging countries. Due to the coronavirus calamity, fiscal
spending could expand rapidly due to economic measures for medical improvement and
to help reduce a drop in private demands. Malaysia had put in place measures
that accounted for 18% of its gross domestic product (GDP). Indonesia had
temporarily shelved the fiscal discipline rules established to prevent the
recurrence of the Asian currency crisis of 1997.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that the 2020
budget deficit of emerging countries would be 8.9% of GDP. It expanded sharply
to 1.8 times of the forecast made six months ago. In Indonesia and South
Africa, the same ratio could expand to a record high. Oil-producing countries
such as Brazil could be hit by a fall in crude oil prices.
In China where the spread of infection had passed its peak,
the currency was stable for the time being. But in emerging countries that were
suffering from a weak currency, infection was still expanding. The number of
new infections per day in all emerging countries had surged from more than
10,000 at the beginning of April to about 38 thousand at the last ten days of
the month. If the spread of the infection could not be stopped, further
financial measures would have to be taken.
US rating giant S & P Global Ratings had lowered the
credit ratings of 20 countries since January. The countries that had concerns
about downgrades in the medium term, i.e. the “downgrade reserve army” also had
reached 15 in number. For the full-year 2020 downgrade, it could be as big as
2011 when credit instability spread due to the European debt crisis.
If credit risk was hurting, doubts about debt repayment could
increase, leading to a vicious cycle such as rising interest rates on
government bonds. In Ecuador, the oil price plunged and the fiscal stalemate had resulted in a de facto default.
Emerging countries' debt, which had reached record levels,
was casting a shadow over the outlook for the world economy. According to the
IIF, the combined debt of governments and the private sectors was the highest
ever at $ 71 trillion, which was 2.2 times the GDP. The ratio was slightly under 1.5 times of that in 2007 before the Lehman crisis. About 10% of debt was
denominated in dollars, and a weak currency would make the interest and
principal payment burden substantially heavy in dollars.
"To use all the means." Federal Reserve Chairman
Powell announced on April 29 that he would consider additional economic
backing. Although the central banks of the world were desperately trying to put
out the fire in the markets, the risk of the emerging economies might invite a
"second wave" of market turmoil remained.
So, the outflow
of funds from emerging countries could be a source of global financial trouble.
Will the world bank or other similar financial organizations give out a helping
hand to these countries?
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