The real feeling of the anxious Chinese manufacturing industry - technology is a bottleneck in overseas relocation

Recently Nihon Keizai Shimbun electronic version reported the following:

悩める中国製造業の本音　国外移転は技術がネック

日経産業新聞 コラム（ビジネス） 自動車・機械 中国・台湾 東南アジア

2019/12/11 2:00日本経済新聞　電子版

NIKKEI BUSINESS DAILY 日経産業新聞

米中貿易戦争の先行きが見通せないなか、中国メーカーが生産地の海外移転で揺れている。10～11月に広州市で開かれた中国最大級の貿易商談会「中国輸出入商品交易会（広州交易会）」に参加した製造業に聞いたところ、移転の意向を持ちながらも移転先の技術水準の低さ、資金難など壁が立ちはだかることが分かった。米国は15日からはスマホ、玩具などの追加関税を発動する可能性があり、中国の製造業の苦境はさらに深まりそうだ。

「来年は米国の追加関税による影響を覚悟しなくてはいけない」。新疆ウイグル自治区のカシミヤ衣類メーカーの担当者はこう話した。同社の主力製品はまだ追加関税が課せられていない。12月中旬に発動予定の追加関税の対象のため、前倒しで米国の顧客へ納入している。

主に中国で生産し、全世界へ出荷する同社の売り上げは米国向けが2割を占める。追加関税があれば経営への影響は大きい。生産地の移転を検討し幹部は最近、カンボジアの工業団地を見学した。しかし、ボタンメーカーなどの技術水準の低さに驚いたという。「移転しても費用対効果はかえって落ちるかもしれない」として移転計画を白紙に戻した。

広州市のあるジーンズメーカーは5月の追加関税で米国向け輸出が割高になり、主力市場だった米国からの注文がほぼ無くなった。同業他社は追加関税を避けようとベトナムやパキスタンに生産移転し、米国からの注文を維持していた。同じようにしようと検討したが、工員が数十人程度と規模が小さく、海外で新たな生産ラインを立ち上げるのは事実上難しいと分かった。現在は米国以外の販売先探しに専念しているという。

ジーンズ業界は利幅の薄い業界で中小零細業者も多い。主要市場の一つである米国からの受注減は大きな痛手となり、営業担当者は「（米中の貿易戦争は）早く解決されると信じている」と話すばかりだった。

中国に生産拠点を持つスマホメーカーや電子機器の受託製造サービス（EMS）は動こうにも動きにくい状況だ。スマホ、ノートパソコンなどは12月15日の第4弾で追加関税が発動する見通し。あるメーカーは「海外で工場用地を手付けしておいて移転の判断は保留し、米中協議次第で速やかに動く」と話す。

こうしたメーカーと取引があるパナソニックの田中利秀総括部長は「顧客動向を注視している」とする。同社は最近、中国事業の営業担当とベトナムやインドの人員の情報交換体制を整え、生産移転があっても円滑に製品を供給できるようにした。

ゲーム機、玩具、衣類なども12月の追加関税に含まれる見通しのため、関連業界はEMSと同じように頭をひねる局面になっている。

中国メーカーにとっては生産地だけが悩みのタネではない。米中摩擦などを起点に全世界的な貿易の冷え込みも懸念される。

世界貿易機関（WTO）が11月発表した2019年10～12月期のモノの貿易指数は、貿易の拡大・縮小の判断の目安となる100を5四半期連続で下回った。また実際に今回の広州交易会で中国メーカーや海外の仕入れ業者（バイヤー）が結んだ契約額は292億8800万ドル（約3兆2千億円）と前年比で1.9%減った。前年実績を下回ったのは18年秋、19年春に続き3回連続だ。

国を越えたサプライチェーンの組み替え、取引自体の鈍化――。世界の工場として長く機能してきた中国の製造業は大きな試練を迎えている。

（広州=比奈田悠佑）

Translation

As the future of the US-China trade war could not be seen through, Chinese manufacturers were wavering on whether to move their production sites overseas. The manufacturing industry that had participated in China's largest trade fair held in Guangzhou city in October-November (Canton Trade Fair) was interviewed, and it was understood that the low level of technology and the difficulty of funding had proven to be a hurdle to them. As the US might trigger additional tariffs on smartphones, toys, etc. starting from the 15th, the Chinese manufacturing industry's predicament was likely to deepen further.

“We must be prepared for the impact of additional US tariffs next year.” A representative from a cashmere clothing manufacturer in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region said. The company's flagship product had not yet been subjected to additional tariffs. Delivery to US customers was done ahead of schedule as their production might be subjected to additional tariffs scheduled to be activated in mid-December.

This company's goods, which were mainly produced in China and shipped worldwide, had the US accounted for 20% of the sales. If there were additional duties, the impact on management would be significant. Considering the relocation of production areas, its executives recently visited an industrial park in Cambodia. However, the level of technology there among the button makers and the like was surprising low. “Relocation may reduce our cost-effectiveness,” and thus reverted the relocation plan to just a blank paper.

It was more expensive for a jeans maker in Guangzhou City to export to the US due to additional tariffs in May, and orders from the key US markets were almost gone. Other companies in the same industry had transferred production to Vietnam and Pakistan to avoid additional tariffs so as to maintain orders from the United States. One company tried to do the same transfer, but found that it was practically difficult to set up a new production line overseas because its number of workers was merely a few dozen. Currently the company devoted to look for sales outlets beyond the US.

Jeans industry was a low profit margin industry with many small and medium-sized enterprises. Decrease in orders from the US, one of their major markets, was a big hit; one sales representative had said, “I believe it (US-China trade war) will be resolved soon.”

With production bases in China, smartphone manufacturers together with the contract manufacturing services for electronic devices (EMS) were in a difficult situation even in moving out. Additional tariffs were expected to be activated for smartphones and laptops in the fourth round by December 15th. A manufacturer said, “we have decided to move the factory site overseas but is putting on hold the relocation, we would move quickly depending on the US-China negotiations.”

Panasonic's general manager Toshihide Tanaka who was doing business with these manufacturers said "we are closely monitoring customer trends." The company recently had established a system for exchanging information between sales representatives in China and personnel in both Vietnamese and Indian so that products could be supplied smoothly even if there was a production transfer.

Game consoles, toys, clothing etc. were also expected to be included in the additional tariffs in December, the related industries were, just liked EMS, in a state of puzzling.

For Chinese manufacturers, the production area was not the only source of problem. There was a concern that world trade would cool down, starting with frictions between the US and China.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) in November announced its trade index for goods, it was a standard for judging the expansion or contraction of trade. For the period from October to December 2019 it had been fallen below 100 for five consecutive quarters. In addition, the contract amount signed by Chinese manufacturers and overseas purchaser (buyers) at the recent Canton Fair was 29,288 million dollars (approximately 3.2 trillion yen), a decrease of 1.9% from the previous year. The previous decline in track record was in autumn 2018, following a decline in spring 2019, it was a three-consecutive decline.

With supply chain across the country re-organizing and self- transaction slowing down, China's manufacturing industry, which had long functioned as a world factory, was facing a major challenge.

           The tariff imposed by the US on Chinese goods in the recent trade dispute, together with the threat of imposing further tariff, has already upset China’s plan to become the world’s factory. Many Chinese manufactures have moved their production sites to SE Asian countries in general and Vietnam in particular. Globally due to the demand for daily consumer goods, there will be no trading vacuum in the business world. If country A cannot produce goods at an attractive price, country B or C will move in to take over the production vacuum immediately. International trading will never stop to wait for an outcome of the US-China trade war.