Recently NHK News On-line reported the following:
香港区議選 民主派圧勝 政治に一定の影響 混乱深まる可能性も
2019年11月25日 19時23分
今回、民主派が、区議会議員選挙で圧勝したことで区議会そのものには大きな権限はないものの、今後、香港の政治に一定の影響を与えることが予想されます。
まず、注目されるのは、政府トップの行政長官を決める選挙への影響です。
行政長官選挙は、一般の市民ではなく、議会の議員や各業界から選ばれた選挙委員1200人による間接選挙で行われますが、今回の結果を受けて区議会議員に割り当てられている選挙委員117人すべてを民主派が占める可能性が高くなりました。
全体では、依然として親中派の選挙委員が多く、次の行政長官選挙では民主派寄りの行政長官を選出するのは難しい状況ですが、民主派の影響力がこれまでより強まることになります。
さらに、香港では来年秋に、議会にあたる立法会議員の選挙が予定されていて、今回の選挙で示された政府に対する反発が再び民主派への勢いとなって立法会でも議席を伸ばす可能性があります。
ただ、香港政府やその後ろ盾となる中国としては、民主派に政治の実権を握られるのは避けるとみられ、制度の見直しなど、何らかの対応を取ることも予想されます。
また、中国寄りの香港の新聞は、25日朝の紙面で今回の選挙について、親中派の候補者の事務所が破壊されたことに触れて「反政府側は選挙の公平性を損なった」と非難していて、親中派の候補者や中国政府が今後、選挙の有効性を疑問視する可能性もあります。
一方、今回の選挙結果は、香港で続く政府に対する抗議活動にも影響を与えそうです。
今回の選挙では、民主派の候補の多くが抗議活動を通じて求めてきた「民主的な選挙の実現」や、警察による取締りの対応などを検証する「独立調査委員会の設置」などの要求を訴えに掲げて当選しました。
このため、こうした民意が示された結果だとして、政府に対する要求をさらに強めるとみられます。
ただ、これまでも要求を拒否し続けてきた香港政府にとっては、受け入れることは容易ではなく、対応しだいでは、市民の反発がさらに強まり、混乱が深まる可能性もあります。
Translation
This time, the democrats won the victory in a constituency
election, but the district council itself had no great authority, yet it was
expected to have an impact on Hong Kong politics in the future.
The first thing to notice was the impact on the election of the
top government Chief Executive.
The Chief Executive's election was not for ordinary citizen,
it was an indirect election by a 1,200- people Election Committee with
membership allotted to the legislature and to members of the various trades and
professions. But based on current election result, in this Election Committee,
all the 117-membership coming from the district council would more likely to belong
to the democrats.
Overall, there were still many pro-China members in the Election
Committee and it was difficult to elect a democratic Chief Executive in the
next Chief Executive election, but the influence of democrats would be strong.
In addition, in Hong Kong in the fall of next year, an
election of legislators in the legislature was scheduled, and the opposition
against the government shown in the present election might become a momentum
for democracy again by asking to increase the seats in the Legislative Council.
However, the Hong Kong government and China which supported
it, were expected to avoid democratic political power, and some measures such
as a review of the system were expected.
In addition, a Chinese-oriented Hong Kong newspapers
mentioned in the morning of the 25th that for the election the pro-China
candidate's offices were destroyed, saying that “the anti-government side has eroded
the fairness of the election.” It was possible that in the future the pro-China
election candidates and the Chinese government might question the validity of
the election.
On the other hand, the election results would likely to have
an impact on the ongoing protests against the government in Hong Kong.
In this election, many democratic elected candidates had through
protests raised appeals to demand such as “realization of democratic elections”,
and the “establishment of an independent investigation committee” to inspect
the response of police in doing the crackdown.
For this reason, it was likely that the demands on the
government might be further strengthened as a result of this public will.
However, for the Hong Kong government which had continued to
reject these requests, it was not easy to accept. Depending on government’s
response, citizens' resistance might become stronger and confusion might
deepen.
So, the
political situation in Hong Kong is far from stable in the coming months.
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