"Super-calculation" in the hands of mankind - Google verification

Recently Nihon Keizai Shimbun electronic version reported the following:

「超計算」人類の手中に　グーグル実証か

科学&新技術

2019/10/18 18:00日本経済新聞　電子版

グーグルが開発したとみられる新しい量子チップ

人工知能（AI）などに続く革新的技術として期待される量子コンピューターが「スーパーコンピューターを超える日」が近づいてきた。米グーグルは、理論上の概念だった性能を実証し、最先端のスパコンで1万年かかる問題を瞬時に解く実験に成功したもようだ。米IBMなども研究に力を入れる。急速な進歩はいずれ人類にこれまでにない計算パワーをもたらす。AIの活用や金融市場のリスク予測などを通じ、社会にディスラプション（創造的破壊）を起こす可能性を秘める。

グーグルが「量子超越」を達成したもようだ――。英フィナンシャル・タイムズは9月、こう報じた。日本経済新聞が入手した資料によると、最先端のスパコンでおよそ1万年かかる計算問題を、同社の量子コンピューターが3分20秒で解いたという。

量子超越は、従来のコンピューターでは困難な計算問題を量子コンピューターが解く性能を指す。理論上はスパコンを上回るとされた計算性能を、グーグルは世界で初めて実証したとみられる。同社は「コメントできない」としているが、事実なら「教科書に載るレベル。歴史に残る成果」（科学技術振興機構の嶋田義皓フェロー）だ。近く正式発表するもようだ。

量子コンピューターは「量子力学」という物理法則に従って動く。従来のコンピューターは「0」か「1」で情報を表すが、量子力学の世界は「0であり、かつ1でもある」という特殊な状態が起こりえる。

この仕組みを利用した「量子ビット」と呼ぶ計算単位を使うことで、膨大な情報もまとめて処理できる。計算の回数が大幅に減り、時間が劇的に短くなる。グーグルは今回、53個の量子ビットを実現し、乱数をつくる計算でスパコン超えの性能を実証したようだ。

グーグルなどが量子コンピューターの研究に乗り出したのは、半導体の微細加工による従来のコンピューターの性能向上に限界が見え始めたためだ。AIなどの登場を受け、膨大なデータを扱えるコンピューターが求められている。

50～100量子ビットに到達し、開発は「NISQ」と呼ぶ中規模の量子コンピューターに移りつつある。まだ幅広い計算に使えるわけではないが、経済や産業、社会を変えると期待が膨らむ。

計算能力が足りないために、解決しない難題は多い。例えば都市部の渋滞解消。現在は無数の車がそれぞれの都合で走り、渋滞を招く。1台ずつが進む道を短時間に計算するのは困難だ。量子コンピューターを使い、車ごとに「渋滞を起こさない最適ルート」を指示できれば解消に役立つ。

AIによる画像や言語などの処理も短時間、省エネになる。計算力を生かし、個人の体質に合わせて薬を作り分けるような新たな医療の誕生も後押しできる。

量子コンピューターの「使い道」の開拓に力を入れるのがIBMだ。16年に量子コンピューターを外部の利用者にクラウド経由で公開した。世界で15万人を超す登録利用者のほか独ダイムラーや米JPモルガン・チェースなど80近い企業などと研究を進める。

日本では慶応義塾大学に連携拠点があり、銀行や化学大手が参加する。画期的な薬や材料の開発、金融市場のリスク予測などの研究が熱を帯びる。

ただし、量子コンピューターがもたらすのは「光」だけではない。革新的技術は時に脅威となる。ささやかれるのが、ネット社会が根底から揺らぐリスクだ。

現在は通信の際にパスワードなどの情報を暗号化している。最新のスパコンでも解読に時間がかかることから「安全」とみなす。量子コンピューターはこの暗号を破る恐れがある。新しい暗号技術の検討も進む。

IBMのメインフレーム（汎用機）の発売は1964年。従来のコンピューターもその前に20年ほどの黎明（れいめい）期があった。日本IBMの森本典繁執行役員は「量子コンピューターもそういうフェーズにある」と指摘する。

コンピューターの歴史で、およそ70年ぶりに起き始めた革新の動き。本格的な量子コンピューターの実用化には課題が多いが、米インテルや中国のアリババ集団なども開発に参入し、今後もブレークスルーが生まれる見通しだ。

Translation

New quantum chip that seemed to have been developed by Google

The quantum computer, which was expected to be an innovative technology following artificial intelligence (AI), was approaching the “day beyond the supercomputer”. Google seemed to have succeeded in demonstrating a performance that was a theoretical concept, and succeeded in instantly solving a 10,000-year problem with a state-of-the-art supercomputer. The US IBM and others were also focusing on research. Rapid progress would eventually bring unprecedented computational power to mankind. Through the use of AI and financial market risk predictions, it had the potential to cause disruption (creative destruction) in society.

It seemed that Google had achieved “Quantum Transcendence”. The UK Financial Times reported in September: according to materials obtained by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, the company's quantum computer solved a computational problem in 3 minutes and 20 seconds that took about 10,000 years with a state-of-the-art supercomputer.

Quantum transcendence referred to the ability of quantum computers to solve computational problems that were difficult with conventional computers. It seemed that Google had demonstrated the world's first computing performance that was theoretically superior to supercomputers. The company said it had “no comment”; but if it was true, it was "a level that can be recorded in textbooks. A record that stands in history" (Yoshiaki Shimada, fellow of the Japan Science and Technology Agency). It seemed that it would be officially announced soon.

Quantum computers operated according to the physical law of “quantum mechanics”. Conventional computers represent information by “0” or “1”, but in the quantum mechanics world “it's 0 and it's also 1” special states could occur.

By using a calculation unit called “quantum bit” using this mechanism, it was possible to process a large amount of information collectively. The number of calculations would be greatly reduced and the time might dramatically shorten. This time, Google realized 53 qubits, and it seemed that it had demonstrated the performance exceeding a supercomputer in the calculation that made random numbers.

The reason why Google and others had started research on quantum computers was that the limits to improving the performance of conventional computers by micro-fabrication of semiconductors had begun to appear. With the advent of AI and the like, computers that could handle enormous amounts of data were required.

Reaching 50-100 qubits, development was moving to a medium-sized quantum computer called "NISQ". It was not yet usable for a wide range of calculations, but expectations increased when the economy, industry and society changed.

There were many unsolvable problems due to lack of computing power. For example, eliminating congestion in urban areas. Innumerable cars now ran for their own convenience, causing traffic jams. It was difficult to calculate in a short time the path that each vehicle took. If you could use a quantum computer to indicate the "optimal route that does not cause traffic jams" for each car, it would help.

Processing of images and languages ​​by AI might also save energy and time. Utilizing computational power, it might be possible to support the birth of new medical treatments that made medicines according to the individual's body feature.

IBM was committed to developing “ways of utilization” for quantum computers. In 2016 it released quantum computers to external users via the cloud. In addition to over 150,000 registered users around the world, research would be conducted with nearly 80 companies such as Daimler in Germany and JP Morgan Chase in the US.

In Japan, Keio University had a cooperation base, and banks and major chemical companies had participated. Research on innovative drug and material development, financial market risk prediction, etc. was in an exciting and passionate atmosphere.

However, quantum computers did not only bring “light”. Innovative technology could be a threat sometimes. What was whispered was the risk that the Internet society would be shaken from the ground up.

Currently, information such as passwords was encrypted during communication. Even the latest supercomputers were considered "safe" because it took time to decipher. Quantum computers could break this code. The study of new encryption technology could also proceed.

IBM's mainframe (general-purpose machine) was released in 1964. Conventional computers also had a dawning period of about 20 years before that. Norishige Morimoto, executive officer of IBM Japan, pointed out that "quantum computers are in that phase".

In the history of computers, after about 70 years, innovative movement began to occur for the first time. Although there were many issues in putting a full-scale quantum computer into practical use, the US Intel and the Alibaba group in China were also entering the development, and breakthroughs were expected to continue.

           So, it seems that a revolutionary change in the field of computer is happening.

The number of births drops below 900,000 in 2019: two years earlier than expected

Recently Nihon Keizai Shimbun Electronic Edition reported the following:

出生数90万人割れへ　19年、推計より2年早く

社会保障・成長に影

経済

2019/10/7 2:00日本経済新聞　電子版

日本の出生数が急減している。1～7月は前年同期に比べて5.9%減り、30年ぶりの減少ペースとなった。団塊ジュニア世代が40代後半になり、出産期の女性が減ったことが大きい。2016年に100万人を下回ってからわずか3年で、19年は90万人を割る可能性が高い。政府の想定を超える少子化は社会保障制度や経済成長に影を落とす。出産や子育てをしやすい環境の整備が急務だ。

　厚生労働省の人口動態統計（速報）によると、1～7月の出生数は前年同期比5.9%減の51万8590人。減少は4年連続だが、19年は月次でも3月に7.1%減となるなど、大きな落ち込みが続く。18年1～7月は同2.0%減だった。

日本総合研究所の藤波匠氏は「団塊ジュニアの出産期の終わりを映している」という。1971～74年生まれのこの世代は、19年にはすべて45歳以上になる。

18年10月1日時点の人口推計によると、日本人の女性は40歳代の907万人に対し、30歳代は23%少ない696万人、20歳代は36%少ない578万人。出産期の女性が大きく減っている。

1人の女性が生涯に生む子どもの数にあたる合計特殊出生率は18年に1.42と、3年続けて下がった。結婚して子どもを産みたいと考える人の希望がかなった場合の値は1.8で、理想と実態の差は大きい。政府はこの「希望出生率1.8」を25年度に実現することを目標に、保育所の整備や育児休業の推進などに取り組んできたが、効果は十分ではない。出生率が上がらなければ、出生減には歯止めがかからない。

人口動態統計の速報値は外国人による日本での出産と、日本人の海外での出産が含まれる。政府が公表する年間の出生数は3万人程度のこれらを除いて、18年の日本人の出生数は約91.8万人だった。19年は7月までの減少ペースが続けば、90万人を割り込む公算が大きい。外国人を含んでも90万人に届かない可能性がある。

国立社会保障・人口問題研究所が17年にまとめた推計では、19年の出生数は92万1千人（総人口ベース）だった。90万人割れは21年（88.6万人）としており、仮に19年なら2年早い。

少子化は現役世代が高齢者を支える形の医療や年金、介護の社会保障の枠組みを揺らす。特に公的年金は現役世代が払う保険料で支えており、担い手が減れば年金の支給額に響く。高齢者増で膨らむ医療費も、少ない現役世代にしわ寄せがいく。

少子化が進めば、一部業種での人手不足は一段と深刻になる。若い世代を中心に労働力の減少は、経済の潜在成長率も下押しする。

出生数を回復するためには、若い女性が出産しやすい環境づくりが課題だ。日本の出生率を年代別にみると30歳代後半については、1.7～1.9台と高いフランスやスウェーデンとも差はない。各国を大きく下回るのは20歳代だ。

正社員の終身雇用が多い日本の労働慣行では、出産や育児で休職するとキャリアが積み上がらず、仕事上の不利になりやすい。晩産化が進んで第2子以降は望んでもかないにくい状況にある。夫による子育ての参加拡大を認める企業文化の定着を含め、少子化対策を変えていく必要がある。

出生数の大幅な減少は海外でも相次いでいる。米国では18年の出生数が32年ぶりの低い水準だった。韓国の19年1～6月の出生数は約8%減と大きく落ち込んだ。

Translation

The number of births in Japan was declining rapidly. From January to July, it decreased by 5.9% compared to the same period of the previous year, it was a decrease pacing not seen in 30 years. The baby boomers were in their late 40s, and the number of women in childbirth had decreased. Just three years after falling below 1 million in 2016, it was likely to drop below 900,000 in 2019. The declining birthrate that surpassed government expectations had caste a shadow on the social security system and economic growth. There was an urgent need to create an environment that facilitated childbirth and child-rearing.

According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare's demographic statistics (preliminary report), the number of births from January to July was 518,590, a decrease of 5.9% year-on-year. While the decline had been for 4 years in a row, in 2019,  month after month the decline in March was 7.1%. It was a 2.0% down from January to July 2018 year-on-year.

Mr. Takumi Fujinami of the Japan Research Institute said, “It reflects the end of the baby boomer's childbirth”. Born in 1971-74, all this generation would be over 45-years-old in 2019.

According to the population estimate as of October 1, 2018, comparing to the number of Japanese women in the 40s which was at 9.07 million, those in the 30s was 23% less to stand at 6.96 million and those in the 20s was 36% less at 5.78 million. The number of women in childbirth period had substantially decreased.

The total fertility rate, which was the number of children a woman would have in her lifetime, had decreased to 1.42 in 2018, a continuous drop for three years. The rate for a person who wanted to marry and give birth to a child was 1.8, and there was a big difference between the ideal and the actual situation. The government had been working on the establishment of daycare centers and the promotion of childcare leave with a goal of achieving the "desired fertility rate of 1.8" in 2015, but the result was not good. If the fertility rate did not increase, there would be no end to the decreasing births.

The preliminary figures for demographic statistics had included births in Japan by foreigners, and also overseas births by Japanese. Except for these annual number of births as announced by the government which stood at about 30,000, the number of Japanese births in 2018 was about 918,000. In 2019, if the rate of decline continued until July, it was likely that this number might drop below 900,000. Even including foreigners, it might not reach 900,000.

According to an estimate compiled by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research in 2017, the birth rate in 2019 would be 921,000 (based on the total population). There would be a dropping below 900,000 people at 2021 (886,000 people), and if this happened in 2019, it came two years early.

The declining birthrate shook the social security framework of medical care, pensions, and nursing care in which the active generation was supporting the elderly. In particular, the public pension was supported by insurance premiums paid by the present generation. If the number of participants was reduced, the amount paid would be affected. The medical expenses that might increase due to an increase in the number of elderly people would burden the insufficient working generation.

As the birthrate declined, labor shortages in some industries would become more serious. The decline in the labor force, especially in the younger generation, would also lower the economic growth rate.

In order to improve the number of births, there was the challenge to create an environment where young women could easily give birth. Looking at Japan's fertility rate by age group, among the late 30s, it was 1.7-1.9 units, which was not as high as France or Sweden. It was among the 20s that there was a big drop in all countries.

In Japan's labor practice, where life-long employment was often practiced, taking a leave for childbirth or childcare would not be a plus for the career and tended to be a disadvantage for work. It was difficult to hope for further after a second child because of the late birth. It was necessary to change measures now employed to check the declining birthrate, including the establishment of a corporate culture that would allow husbands to increase their child-rearing participation.

Overseas, there had been a significant decrease in the number of births. In the United States, the number of births in 2018 was at the lowest level in 32 years. The number of births in South Korea from January to June 2019 fell sharply by about 8%.

          It seems that a dropping in birth rate is a world-wide phenomenon in many countries.

Large LNG construction in East Africa, 1.2 trillion yen - JGC HD, etc.

Recently Nihon Keizai Shimbun Electronic Edition reported the following:

東アフリカで大型LNG建設、日揮HDなど1.2兆円規模

自動車・機械 環境エネ・素材 中東・アフリカ

2019/10/8 18:00日本経済新聞　電子版

日揮ホールディングス（HD）はアフリカ東部モザンビークの液化天然ガス（LNG）プラントの建設を受注した。事業規模は約1兆2000億円で、日揮HDの受注分は約4000億円になる見通し。インフラ輸出を巡っては、日本が官民で取り組んだ原子力発電所の輸出が停滞する一方、中国勢が鉄道分野などで躍進する。大型LNG事業は日本勢が強く、インフラ輸出の要になっている。

日本のインフラ輸出は、人口減少で国内需要が縮む中で成長戦略の柱の一つに位置付けられる。原発輸出は2011年の東京電力福島第1原発の事故などで思うように進んでいない。LNGは石炭に比べ二酸化炭素（CO2）排出量が少なく、需要は拡大傾向だ。大型LNGはプラント設備の高い技術力が求められ、手がけるプラント会社は日揮HDや千代田化工建設など数社に限られる。

日揮HDなどが受注したプラントは世界のLNG取引量の約5%にあたる年1500万トン以上の生産能力を予定する。米石油最大手エクソンモービルが運営主体となり25年に稼働し、日本や中国などに供給する見込みだ。日揮HD傘下の日揮グローバルや米フルア、欧州テクニップFMCのプラント大手が、エクソンの主導する管理会社との間で設計、資材調達、建設工事を一括して請け負う契約を結んだ。

東アフリカ沖では10年以降、世界最大規模のガス田が相次ぎ発見され、LNGの新たな供給源として開発が進む。カタールやオーストラリアに次ぐ供給地域になる可能性があり、プラント各社も事業の参入を狙う。エクソンは生産能力の増強を見据えており、次の受注の機会も広がる。

プラント業界では中国勢が存在感を増している。米建設調査会社エンジニアリング・ニューズ・レコードがまとめた18年の海外売上高が大きかったプラント企業の世界250社をみると、中国勢の売上高が全体の4分の1を占めた。アフリカやアジアの鉄道建設などで受注を伸ばしてきた。だがLNGプラントの分野は日本勢が優位だ。

LNGプラントは14年以降の原油価格の急落で石油開発会社の投資が減退し、16年まで大型投資は停滞した。原油価格が上昇した17年以降は大型投資が回復基調にある。国際エネルギー機関（IEA）によると、世界の天然ガスの需要量は17年の3兆7520億立方メートルに対し、35年には5兆250億立方メートルに伸びる見通しだ。

政府のインフラ輸出戦略は受注額を20年に10年比3倍の30兆円にする目標を掲げているが、現状では達成が難しい。当初想定していた原発に代わり、LNGが柱になる可能性が高い。

Translation

JGC Holdings (HD) had received an order for the construction of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in Mozambique, eastern Africa. The business scale was about 1.2 trillion yen, and JGC HD orders were expected to be around 400 billion yen. With regard to infrastructure exporting to overseas, while the exports of nuclear power plants that Japan had worked on in the public and private sectors had become stagnated, the Chinese had made rapid progress in the railway sector. The large-scale LNG business was strong in Japan and would be a key to infrastructure export.

Japan's infrastructure exports were positioned as one of the pillars of the growth strategy as domestic demand shrank due to population decline. Nuclear power exports were not progressing as expected due to the accident at TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011. LNG had lower carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions than coal, and demand was expanding. Large LNG required high technical capabilities in plant facilities, and the number of plant companies involved was limited to a few companies such as JGC HD and Chiyoda Corporation.

The plants that JGC HD and others had received orders could have a production capacity of more than 15 million tons per year, which was about 5% of the world's LNG trading volume. The largest oil company, ExxonMobil, would operate in 2025 and could supply to Japan and China. Major companies such as JGC Global that was under JGC HD, also Fluor from the America and Technip FMC from Europe had signed a contract with Exxon-led management company for design, material procurement, and construction work.

Off the coast of East Africa, the world's largest gas fields were discovered one after another after 2010, and development proceeded as a new source of LNG. It might become a supply area after Qatar and Australia, and plant companies were also aiming at entering the business. Exxon was looking to increase its production capacity, and the opportunity for the next order was great.

In the plant industry, the presence of the Chinese influence was increasing. Looking at the 250 plant companies around the world that had large overseas sales in 2018 compiled by the US construction research company Engineering News Records, China's sales accounted for a quarter of the total. Orders had increased for construction of railways in Africa and Asia. However, Japanese players were dominant in the field of LNG plants.

In LNG plants, oil development companies' investment declined due to a sharp drop in crude oil prices since 2014, and large-scale investments stagnated until 2016. Large-scale investments had been on a recovery trend since 2017 as crude oil prices rose. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand for natural gas was expected to grow to 525 trillion cubic meters in 2035, compared to 3,752 billion cubic meters in 2005.

The government's infrastructure export strategy had set a goal of increasing the order value to 30 trillion yen in 2020, which would be three times higher than in 2010. LNG was likely to become a pillar placing the nuclear power plant originally assumed.

              So, Japan is good at building LNG plants. Specialization is a normal feature among countries globally, and adaptation to the world demand is important for the economic giants to stay in power.

US House of Representatives passed Hong Kong human rights bill - a clear criticism for China

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

米下院、香港人権法案を可決　中国への非難鮮明

2019.10.16 Wed posted at 13:05 JST

香港でデモ激化

（ＣＮＮ） 米下院は１５日、民主化を求める香港での大規模デモを擁護する「香港人権・民主主義法案」を可決した。警察がデモの鎮圧強化に動くなか、中国政府に対する非難を明確に打ち出した形だ。

香港では今週初めにデモ隊が街路へ繰り出し、米議会に向けて上記の法案を通過させるよう要求していた。米議会で党派を超えた支持を集める同法案は、発声投票で可決した。

下院のペロシ議長は「上下両院の民主党ならびに共和党議員は香港の人々と団結して立ち上がる」「米国が中国の人権問題に対して商業的な利益のために声を上げないとすれば、我々はすべての道徳的権威を失うことになる。そうなれば世界のあらゆる場所で起きている人権問題に発言できない事態となる」と強調した。

そのうえで今回の香港人権・民主主義法案の可決は、民主主義を守る米国の取り組みを再確認するものだと述べた。

同法案は、年次報告書によって香港の自治が十分に機能しているかどうかを検証することを義務付ける。この検証に基づき、米国の法が定めた香港への優遇措置の妥当性を判断する。

また香港での人権弾圧に故意に関わったとみなされた人物に対し、米大統領が制裁や渡航制限措置を科す手順も明示している。

香港の人権をめぐっては上院でも今後、下院と若干内容を異にする別個の法案が採決にかけられる見通しだ。

Translation

 (CNN) The US House of Representatives on the 15th passed the "Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Bill" to defend a large-scale demonstration in Hong Kong that was seeking democratization. It was a form of clear blaming not only the police’s move to strengthen demonstration suppression, but also the Chinese government.

Earlier this week in Hong Kong, demonstrators took to the streets and demanded the US Congress to pass the above bill. The bill, which attracted support beyond the factions in the US Congress, was passed by a voiced voting.

 Chairman of the House of Representatives Pelosi stressed that“the Democratic and Republican members of the House of Representatives will stand up together with the people of Hong Kong”, “If the US does not speak out for commercial interests over China's human rights issue, we will lose all moral authority, and then we will be unable to speak about human rights issues everywhere in the world.”

She then said the passage of the Hong Kong Bill on Human Rights and Democracy reaffirmed U.S. efforts to protect democracy.

The bill required an annual report to verify that Hong Kong's autonomy was functioning well. Based on this verification, the appropriateness of the preferential treatment for Hong Kong as stipulated by US laws would be determined.

It also clarified the procedures by which the US President would impose sanctions and restrictions on traveling for people deemed to have been deliberately involved in the suppression of human rights in Hong Kong.

As for the future human rights in Hong Kong, the Senate was expected to vote on a separate bill that would be slightly different from the House of Representatives.

              So, the American politician are standing on the side of the demonstrators in Hong Kong. For a full understanding on US policy towards China from a historical perspective, readers may refer to my blog dated 29^th November 2009 regarding a book entitled “Chinese White Paper: August 1949” compiled by the US Department of State in the middle of the last century. This book was first published in 1949. At that time, it was the final stage of Communist victory in China's civil war fought some 70 years ago in mainland China between CCP and KMT. At this historical moment, the US Department of State chose to let the record speak for itself on how the US formulated its policy towards China. To me, the most interesting part of the book was a 400-page summary of American China policy from 1844 to 1949. Through these pages, readers could see how Sino-US relation developed up to 1949 through the American eyes.

“De-Hong Kong” - people and funds are on the move: getting fed up with chaos and suppression

Recently Nihon Keizai Shimbun electronic version reported the following:

人・資金「脱・香港」の動き　混乱や抑圧嫌気

移住希望4割に急増、預金はシンガポールへ

中国・台湾

2019/10/13 19:20 (2019/10/13 22:12更新) 日本経済新聞　電子版

【香港=木原雄士】大規模デモで混迷が続く香港から人や資金が流出する兆しが鮮明になってきた。9月の調査で市民の42%が移住を考えていると回答し、前年調査に比べて8ポイント上昇した。米ゴールドマン・サックスは6～8月に最大40億ドル（約4300億円）の預金がシンガポールに流れた可能性があると試算した。抗議活動はますます過激になっている。脱・香港の動きは経済の活力を低下させ、金融センターの空洞化にもつながりかねない。

「中華系の住人が多く、安全で住みやすそうだった」。9月、移住先候補としてマレーシアのペナン島を訪れた香港人の夫妻はこう語った。マレーシアは手ごろにビザを取得できるとして、引退したシニア世代を中心に人気が高まっている。

香港中文大学が9月に実施したアンケートによると移住を希望する理由には「政治的な争い」「民主主義がない」「中国政府に不満」といった回答が上位に並ぶ。昨年までは手狭な住宅など「居住環境」をあげる人が多かったが、政治的な要因が高まった。

移住を検討する人の23%が何らかの準備をしていると答えた。香港警察によると、ビザ取得に必要な「無犯罪証明書」の申請件数は9月に3597件と前年同月の2倍を超えた。一部のデモ隊が立法会（議会）に突入するなど抗議活動が過激化した7月以降の伸びが目立つ。

ビザ取得などを支援するコンサルティング会社、美聯移民顧問は顧客からの問い合わせが6月の60件から9月は300件に急増したと明かす。同社の黄秀穎氏は「30～40代の関心が高く、結婚して子どもが生まれたばかりの人もいる」と話す。

英語が通じて教育環境がいいカナダやオーストラリアなど定番の国に加え、台湾や欧州連合（EU）加盟国のアイルランドやポルトガルへの移住を検討する人も増えているという。

マネーにも動きがある。8月の香港ドル建て預金は前月比1.6%減と1年3カ月ぶりの大きな落ち込みだった。一方、7～8月のシンガポールの外貨預金や非居住者預金は伸びており、ゴールドマンは「香港ドル預金から緩やかに資金が流出し、シンガポールの外貨建て預金に流入した」と分析している。

香港は通貨・香港ドルを一定の範囲内で米ドルに連動させるペッグ制を採用している。売りが続けば市場介入が必要になる。香港の外貨準備は約4300億ドルと流通する現金を大きく上回り、すぐにペッグ制が崩壊すると考える市場関係者はほとんどいない。ただ、著名投資家のカイル・バス氏が香港ドル売りを推奨するなど注目度は高まっている。

仏投資銀行ナティクシスのエコノミスト、アリシア・ガルシア・エレロ氏は「大規模ではないが香港から資本流出の兆候がある。当局も一時的な現象とは見ていないようだ」と話す。香港政府が4日に行政長官の権限であらゆる規則を適用できる「緊急状況規則条例」を発動し「預金の引き出しが制限されるのではないか」との臆測が広がり、当局が否定する騒動もあった。

13日にはマスクで顔を覆った黒服の若者らが各地で中国系とみなす店舗の破壊や放火、道路封鎖など過激な抗議を繰り広げた。デモ隊は警察官の首を後ろから切りつけたり、警察車両に火炎瓶を投げ入れたりした。警察との衝突で複数の逮捕者が出た。

政府がデモ参加者の覆面を禁止した後、デモが一段と過激になり、地下鉄の運休など市民生活にも影響が出ている。ゴールドマンが推計した流出額は預金全体の1%未満にとどまるが、デモをめぐる混乱が続けば、経済的な影響がさらに広がる可能性がある。

Translation

[Hong Kong = Yuji Kihara] Signs of the outflow of people and funds from Hong Kong, which due to chaos caused by continuing large-scale demonstrations, had become clear. According to a September survey, 42% of citizens said they were planning to move, up 8 points from the previous year's survey. The US Goldman Sachs estimated that deposits of up to $ 4 billion (about 430 billion yen) might have flowed to Singapore during June-August. Protests were becoming more and more radical. The moving away from Hong Kong would reduce the vitality of the economy and might lead to the hollowing out of this financial center.

“Many residents are Chinese, it seems safe and comfortable to live here” said a Hong Kong couples who visited Penang Island, Malaysia, in September as candidates for migration. Malaysia was gaining popularity, especially for retired seniors, as it offered affordable visas.

According to a survey conducted by the Hong Kong Chinese University in September, “political conflict,” “no democracy,” and “dissatisfied with the Chinese government” were the top reasons why people wanted to move. Until last year, there were many people who raised the reason of “living environment” such as cramped accommodation, but for now political reasons had increased.

23% of those considering migration said that they were preparing something. According to the Hong Kong Police the number of applications for “No crime certificate” which was required for obtain a visa was 3,597 in September, more than double the same month last year. The growth was conspicuous since July when protests were intensifying, such as storming into the Legislative Council (Parliament) by some demonstrators.

A consulting company that assisted in obtaining visas, Měi Lián Immigration Co. Ltd., revealed that the number of customer inquiries had jumped from 60 in June to 300 in September. The company's Ms. Huang Xiuyi said “people who are very interested are in their 30s and 40s, and some have just married and have children.”

In addition to regular countries such as Canada and Australia that had a good educational environment using English, an increasing number of people were considering moving to Taiwan, in additional to Ireland and Portugal that were member states of the European Union.

There was also a movement in money. In August, deposits in Hong Kong dollars fell 1.6% month-on-month, the first major decline for a year and three months. On the other hand, foreign currency deposits and non-resident deposits in Singapore in July-August were growing, and Goldman analyzed that funds gradually flowed out of Hong Kong dollar deposits into Singapore currency deposits.

Hong Kong adopted a peg system that linked the currency and Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar within a certain range. If selling continued, market intervention would be required. Hong Kong's foreign currency reserves were about 430 billion dollars, much higher than the cash in circulation, and few marketers thought the peg system should soon collapse. However, attention had been rising, with renowned investor Kyle Bass recommending Hong Kong dollar selling.

“There is a sign of capital outflow from Hong Kong although it is not large. Even the authorities do not see it as a temporary phenomenon,” said Alicia Garcia Erero, an economist at the French investment bank Natixis. The Hong Kong government launched the `` Emergency Situation Regulations '' on the 4th that could implement all the rules under the authority of the Chief Executive, and the expectation that `` the withdrawal of deposits will be restricted '' was wide-spread, and there were riots that the authorities had denied.

On the 13th, young people in black clothes and with faces covered with masks provoked radical protests such as the destruction and arson of shops that were deemed to have China connections, and the blocking of roads. A demonstrator cut the neck of a police officer from behind, and some threw flame bottles at police vehicles. Several arrests were made in clashes with the police.

After the government banned demonstrators from masking, demos had become more radical, the suspension of the MTR and others was affecting civilian life. Goldman estimated that the outflow was less than 1% of total deposits, but if the mess around the demo continued, the economic impact could be further spread.

          So, while some Hong Kong people are seeking emigration, many more of them choose to stay behind to fight a battle for democracy and identity. Freedom often comes with a price.

English private exam : 50% of universities used it - as of the end of September

Recently Nihon Keizai Shimbun Electronic Edition reported the following:

英語民間試験、利用大学5割どまり　9月末時点

大学 社会・くらし

2019/10/4 12:27 (2019/10/4 20:44更新)

大学入学共通テストで導入される英語民間試験の円滑実施について話し合われた会議（9月、文科省）=共同

2020年度に始まる大学入学共通テストで導入される英語民間試験を巡り、文部科学省は4日、成績を合否判定の材料や出願資格などに利用すると決めた大学が9月末時点で全体の5割の561校になったと発表した。試験会場などの公表の遅れや公平性確保への懸念などから利用をためらう大学が多いとみられる。同省は10月中旬までに利用大学を確定させる。

英語民間試験の導入は「読む・聞く・書く・話す」の4技能を測るのが目的。受験生は20年4～12月に試験を受け、大学入試センターが各実施団体から成績を集約して各大学に提供する。

同省の集計によると、成績の具体的な利用方法を決めた四年制大学や短期大学は全体の53%に当たる561校。四年制大学は64%が利用するとし、うち国立は94%、公立78%、私立57%だった。

文科省は「大学入試英語ポータルサイト」の公開を一部停止してデータを更新し、7日をめどに詳細が見られるようにする。

同省は各大学の決定を急がせ、受験生の不安を解消するために、9月末までに利用方針を示さなかった大学には成績を提供しないとした。10月11日までの猶予期間を設けており、利用大学数は増える可能性もある。

英語民間試験を巡っては公平性や公正性への疑問が消えず、日程や会場で未確定部分が残ることなどから、高校側からは延期の要望が出ている。高校側の混乱などを懸念し、利用を見送った大学が少なくないもようだ。

萩生田光一文科相は4日の閣議後記者会見で、「多くの受験生が実施を前提に準備を進めてきており、予定どおり20年度から実施する」と強調。利用が5割にとどまったことに対し、各大学の過去の入試における民間試験利用率に比べれば高いとし、「英語4技能の評価を促進したといえる」と話した。

一方で「もう少し多くの大学が参加してくれる仕組みだったらよかった」とも述べ、高校や大学、実施団体などと協議の場を設ける考えを示した。実施団体には日程や会場の詳細を11月1日までに公表するよう要請しており、各大学にもやむを得ない事情で試験が受けられなかった受験生への配慮を求めるという。

Translation

Center around the English private examination to be introduced in the common university entrance test starting in fiscal 2020, on the 4th the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) announced that as of the end of September the number of schools that decided to use the grades for pass / fail judgment information together with application qualifications etc. was 561 and representing 50%. Many universities seemed to hesitate to use it due to delays in publication of exam sites, and concerns on ensuring fairness. The ministry would by mid-October finalize the universities that would use it.

The purpose of introducing the English private exam was to measure the four skills of "reading, listening, writing and speaking". Applicants took the examination in April-December 2020, and the university entrance examination center collected the results from individual implementing organization and provided them to the individual university.

According to the same ministry, the number of four-year universities and junior colleges that had decided on a specific way to use the grading was 561, accounting for 53% of the total. Four-year universities using it was 64%, of which 94% were national; 78% was using it among public universities, and 57% among the private ones.

The ministry would partially stop making public the "college entrance examination English portal site" to update the data, so that more details on its prospect could be seen on the 7th.

The ministry urged for a decision of individual university; and in order to relieve students' anxiety, decided not to provide grades to universities that didn't show a usage policy by the end of September. There was a grace period until October 11, and there was a possibility that the number of universities that used the test would increase.

The question about objectivity and impartiality over the private English exam had not disappeared, and uncertainties remained regarding the schedule and venue. There was a request for postponement from the side of the high schools. Due to concerns about confusion in high schools, it seemed that there were many universities that had not used it.

At the press conference after the cabinet meeting on the 4th, Koichi Sugata the Minister of Education emphasized, “many exam taking students are preparing for the implementation, and it will start from FY20 as scheduled”; and "it can be said that the evaluation of the 4 English skills was promoted" as the usage rate was 50%,  and that it was higher than the private examination utilization rate in past entrance examinations of individual university.

On the other hand, he said, “It would have been nice if there were a lot more universities participating,” and suggested the idea of ​​setting up a forum for consultation with high schools, universities and implementing organizations. The implementing organizations were requested to announce the details of the schedule and venue by November 1^st. Individual university were requested to pay attention to students who could not take the exam due to unavoidable circumstances.

        It seems that the new English exam system was not welcome by some students.