“De-Hong Kong” - people and funds are on the move: getting fed up with chaos and suppression

Recently Nihon Keizai Shimbun electronic version reported the following:

人・資金「脱・香港」の動き　混乱や抑圧嫌気

移住希望4割に急増、預金はシンガポールへ

中国・台湾

2019/10/13 19:20 (2019/10/13 22:12更新) 日本経済新聞　電子版

【香港=木原雄士】大規模デモで混迷が続く香港から人や資金が流出する兆しが鮮明になってきた。9月の調査で市民の42%が移住を考えていると回答し、前年調査に比べて8ポイント上昇した。米ゴールドマン・サックスは6～8月に最大40億ドル（約4300億円）の預金がシンガポールに流れた可能性があると試算した。抗議活動はますます過激になっている。脱・香港の動きは経済の活力を低下させ、金融センターの空洞化にもつながりかねない。

「中華系の住人が多く、安全で住みやすそうだった」。9月、移住先候補としてマレーシアのペナン島を訪れた香港人の夫妻はこう語った。マレーシアは手ごろにビザを取得できるとして、引退したシニア世代を中心に人気が高まっている。

香港中文大学が9月に実施したアンケートによると移住を希望する理由には「政治的な争い」「民主主義がない」「中国政府に不満」といった回答が上位に並ぶ。昨年までは手狭な住宅など「居住環境」をあげる人が多かったが、政治的な要因が高まった。

移住を検討する人の23%が何らかの準備をしていると答えた。香港警察によると、ビザ取得に必要な「無犯罪証明書」の申請件数は9月に3597件と前年同月の2倍を超えた。一部のデモ隊が立法会（議会）に突入するなど抗議活動が過激化した7月以降の伸びが目立つ。

ビザ取得などを支援するコンサルティング会社、美聯移民顧問は顧客からの問い合わせが6月の60件から9月は300件に急増したと明かす。同社の黄秀穎氏は「30～40代の関心が高く、結婚して子どもが生まれたばかりの人もいる」と話す。

英語が通じて教育環境がいいカナダやオーストラリアなど定番の国に加え、台湾や欧州連合（EU）加盟国のアイルランドやポルトガルへの移住を検討する人も増えているという。

マネーにも動きがある。8月の香港ドル建て預金は前月比1.6%減と1年3カ月ぶりの大きな落ち込みだった。一方、7～8月のシンガポールの外貨預金や非居住者預金は伸びており、ゴールドマンは「香港ドル預金から緩やかに資金が流出し、シンガポールの外貨建て預金に流入した」と分析している。

香港は通貨・香港ドルを一定の範囲内で米ドルに連動させるペッグ制を採用している。売りが続けば市場介入が必要になる。香港の外貨準備は約4300億ドルと流通する現金を大きく上回り、すぐにペッグ制が崩壊すると考える市場関係者はほとんどいない。ただ、著名投資家のカイル・バス氏が香港ドル売りを推奨するなど注目度は高まっている。

仏投資銀行ナティクシスのエコノミスト、アリシア・ガルシア・エレロ氏は「大規模ではないが香港から資本流出の兆候がある。当局も一時的な現象とは見ていないようだ」と話す。香港政府が4日に行政長官の権限であらゆる規則を適用できる「緊急状況規則条例」を発動し「預金の引き出しが制限されるのではないか」との臆測が広がり、当局が否定する騒動もあった。

13日にはマスクで顔を覆った黒服の若者らが各地で中国系とみなす店舗の破壊や放火、道路封鎖など過激な抗議を繰り広げた。デモ隊は警察官の首を後ろから切りつけたり、警察車両に火炎瓶を投げ入れたりした。警察との衝突で複数の逮捕者が出た。

政府がデモ参加者の覆面を禁止した後、デモが一段と過激になり、地下鉄の運休など市民生活にも影響が出ている。ゴールドマンが推計した流出額は預金全体の1%未満にとどまるが、デモをめぐる混乱が続けば、経済的な影響がさらに広がる可能性がある。

Translation

[Hong Kong = Yuji Kihara] Signs of the outflow of people and funds from Hong Kong, which due to chaos caused by continuing large-scale demonstrations, had become clear. According to a September survey, 42% of citizens said they were planning to move, up 8 points from the previous year's survey. The US Goldman Sachs estimated that deposits of up to $ 4 billion (about 430 billion yen) might have flowed to Singapore during June-August. Protests were becoming more and more radical. The moving away from Hong Kong would reduce the vitality of the economy and might lead to the hollowing out of this financial center.

“Many residents are Chinese, it seems safe and comfortable to live here” said a Hong Kong couples who visited Penang Island, Malaysia, in September as candidates for migration. Malaysia was gaining popularity, especially for retired seniors, as it offered affordable visas.

According to a survey conducted by the Hong Kong Chinese University in September, “political conflict,” “no democracy,” and “dissatisfied with the Chinese government” were the top reasons why people wanted to move. Until last year, there were many people who raised the reason of “living environment” such as cramped accommodation, but for now political reasons had increased.

23% of those considering migration said that they were preparing something. According to the Hong Kong Police the number of applications for “No crime certificate” which was required for obtain a visa was 3,597 in September, more than double the same month last year. The growth was conspicuous since July when protests were intensifying, such as storming into the Legislative Council (Parliament) by some demonstrators.

A consulting company that assisted in obtaining visas, Měi Lián Immigration Co. Ltd., revealed that the number of customer inquiries had jumped from 60 in June to 300 in September. The company's Ms. Huang Xiuyi said “people who are very interested are in their 30s and 40s, and some have just married and have children.”

In addition to regular countries such as Canada and Australia that had a good educational environment using English, an increasing number of people were considering moving to Taiwan, in additional to Ireland and Portugal that were member states of the European Union.

There was also a movement in money. In August, deposits in Hong Kong dollars fell 1.6% month-on-month, the first major decline for a year and three months. On the other hand, foreign currency deposits and non-resident deposits in Singapore in July-August were growing, and Goldman analyzed that funds gradually flowed out of Hong Kong dollar deposits into Singapore currency deposits.

Hong Kong adopted a peg system that linked the currency and Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar within a certain range. If selling continued, market intervention would be required. Hong Kong's foreign currency reserves were about 430 billion dollars, much higher than the cash in circulation, and few marketers thought the peg system should soon collapse. However, attention had been rising, with renowned investor Kyle Bass recommending Hong Kong dollar selling.

“There is a sign of capital outflow from Hong Kong although it is not large. Even the authorities do not see it as a temporary phenomenon,” said Alicia Garcia Erero, an economist at the French investment bank Natixis. The Hong Kong government launched the `` Emergency Situation Regulations '' on the 4th that could implement all the rules under the authority of the Chief Executive, and the expectation that `` the withdrawal of deposits will be restricted '' was wide-spread, and there were riots that the authorities had denied.

On the 13th, young people in black clothes and with faces covered with masks provoked radical protests such as the destruction and arson of shops that were deemed to have China connections, and the blocking of roads. A demonstrator cut the neck of a police officer from behind, and some threw flame bottles at police vehicles. Several arrests were made in clashes with the police.

After the government banned demonstrators from masking, demos had become more radical, the suspension of the MTR and others was affecting civilian life. Goldman estimated that the outflow was less than 1% of total deposits, but if the mess around the demo continued, the economic impact could be further spread.

          So, while some Hong Kong people are seeking emigration, many more of them choose to stay behind to fight a battle for democracy and identity. Freedom often comes with a price.