Large LNG construction in East Africa, 1.2 trillion yen - JGC HD, etc.

Recently Nihon Keizai Shimbun Electronic Edition reported the following:

東アフリカで大型LNG建設、日揮HDなど1.2兆円規模

自動車・機械 環境エネ・素材 中東・アフリカ

2019/10/8 18:00日本経済新聞　電子版

日揮ホールディングス（HD）はアフリカ東部モザンビークの液化天然ガス（LNG）プラントの建設を受注した。事業規模は約1兆2000億円で、日揮HDの受注分は約4000億円になる見通し。インフラ輸出を巡っては、日本が官民で取り組んだ原子力発電所の輸出が停滞する一方、中国勢が鉄道分野などで躍進する。大型LNG事業は日本勢が強く、インフラ輸出の要になっている。

日本のインフラ輸出は、人口減少で国内需要が縮む中で成長戦略の柱の一つに位置付けられる。原発輸出は2011年の東京電力福島第1原発の事故などで思うように進んでいない。LNGは石炭に比べ二酸化炭素（CO2）排出量が少なく、需要は拡大傾向だ。大型LNGはプラント設備の高い技術力が求められ、手がけるプラント会社は日揮HDや千代田化工建設など数社に限られる。

日揮HDなどが受注したプラントは世界のLNG取引量の約5%にあたる年1500万トン以上の生産能力を予定する。米石油最大手エクソンモービルが運営主体となり25年に稼働し、日本や中国などに供給する見込みだ。日揮HD傘下の日揮グローバルや米フルア、欧州テクニップFMCのプラント大手が、エクソンの主導する管理会社との間で設計、資材調達、建設工事を一括して請け負う契約を結んだ。

東アフリカ沖では10年以降、世界最大規模のガス田が相次ぎ発見され、LNGの新たな供給源として開発が進む。カタールやオーストラリアに次ぐ供給地域になる可能性があり、プラント各社も事業の参入を狙う。エクソンは生産能力の増強を見据えており、次の受注の機会も広がる。

プラント業界では中国勢が存在感を増している。米建設調査会社エンジニアリング・ニューズ・レコードがまとめた18年の海外売上高が大きかったプラント企業の世界250社をみると、中国勢の売上高が全体の4分の1を占めた。アフリカやアジアの鉄道建設などで受注を伸ばしてきた。だがLNGプラントの分野は日本勢が優位だ。

LNGプラントは14年以降の原油価格の急落で石油開発会社の投資が減退し、16年まで大型投資は停滞した。原油価格が上昇した17年以降は大型投資が回復基調にある。国際エネルギー機関（IEA）によると、世界の天然ガスの需要量は17年の3兆7520億立方メートルに対し、35年には5兆250億立方メートルに伸びる見通しだ。

政府のインフラ輸出戦略は受注額を20年に10年比3倍の30兆円にする目標を掲げているが、現状では達成が難しい。当初想定していた原発に代わり、LNGが柱になる可能性が高い。

Translation

JGC Holdings (HD) had received an order for the construction of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in Mozambique, eastern Africa. The business scale was about 1.2 trillion yen, and JGC HD orders were expected to be around 400 billion yen. With regard to infrastructure exporting to overseas, while the exports of nuclear power plants that Japan had worked on in the public and private sectors had become stagnated, the Chinese had made rapid progress in the railway sector. The large-scale LNG business was strong in Japan and would be a key to infrastructure export.

Japan's infrastructure exports were positioned as one of the pillars of the growth strategy as domestic demand shrank due to population decline. Nuclear power exports were not progressing as expected due to the accident at TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011. LNG had lower carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions than coal, and demand was expanding. Large LNG required high technical capabilities in plant facilities, and the number of plant companies involved was limited to a few companies such as JGC HD and Chiyoda Corporation.

The plants that JGC HD and others had received orders could have a production capacity of more than 15 million tons per year, which was about 5% of the world's LNG trading volume. The largest oil company, ExxonMobil, would operate in 2025 and could supply to Japan and China. Major companies such as JGC Global that was under JGC HD, also Fluor from the America and Technip FMC from Europe had signed a contract with Exxon-led management company for design, material procurement, and construction work.

Off the coast of East Africa, the world's largest gas fields were discovered one after another after 2010, and development proceeded as a new source of LNG. It might become a supply area after Qatar and Australia, and plant companies were also aiming at entering the business. Exxon was looking to increase its production capacity, and the opportunity for the next order was great.

In the plant industry, the presence of the Chinese influence was increasing. Looking at the 250 plant companies around the world that had large overseas sales in 2018 compiled by the US construction research company Engineering News Records, China's sales accounted for a quarter of the total. Orders had increased for construction of railways in Africa and Asia. However, Japanese players were dominant in the field of LNG plants.

In LNG plants, oil development companies' investment declined due to a sharp drop in crude oil prices since 2014, and large-scale investments stagnated until 2016. Large-scale investments had been on a recovery trend since 2017 as crude oil prices rose. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand for natural gas was expected to grow to 525 trillion cubic meters in 2035, compared to 3,752 billion cubic meters in 2005.

The government's infrastructure export strategy had set a goal of increasing the order value to 30 trillion yen in 2020, which would be three times higher than in 2010. LNG was likely to become a pillar placing the nuclear power plant originally assumed.

              So, Japan is good at building LNG plants. Specialization is a normal feature among countries globally, and adaptation to the world demand is important for the economic giants to stay in power.