Finance yahoo on 9.11.2019 reported the following:
Look Within for China’s True Growth Threat
Bloomberg Christopher Balding, Bloomberg 16 hours ago
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(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Investors and institutions such as
the International Monetary Fund are fretting over the risk of a potential
global recession caused by the U.S.-China trade war. Their concern is
misplaced. The true danger to global growth is the weakness of China’s domestic
economy.
Total U.S. trade isn’t declining. On the contrary, it’s
growing at or just beneath its decade-long rate. A decline in shipments to and
from China has been offset by increased trade with partners such as Vietnam and
Mexico. In a broad global market where goods can easily be substituted, manufacturers
will absorb price signals and move to different producers. That’s what is
happening, as U.S. tariffs drive up the cost of importing Chinese products. The
result is that there has been no net change to global trade levels from the
U.S.-China dispute, even if growth has slowed sharply.
The more interesting change is to Chinese trading patterns.
Whereas the composition of U.S. purchases remains close to long-term trends,
China is showing declines across most product types and geographic partners.
Chinese imports from the rest of the world fell 5% this year through September.
Why is it showing such a divergence from the U.S.?
There are three specific reasons:
First, the Chinese economy is growing much more slowly than
the headline 6% rate would suggest. Sales of consumer products from smartphones
and cars to washing machines are falling or flat-lining. There are similar
declines in in specialty traded goods such as Japanese and German precision
machinery, which are destined for Chinese markets and not merely as inputs for
goods that end up in the U.S. Second, there appears to be a conscious plan of
import substitution designed to benefit Chinese producers, even when domestic
goods cost significantly more. Countries such as Australia produce cheaper iron
ore and coal than companies in China. Yet domestic output growth for these
commodities has outpaced the increase in imports. Whether in semiconductors or
commodities, China is pursuing a plan to move away from imports. Third, lack of dollar liquidity is
restricting China’s ability to engage in international trade. Leakages have
undermined the effectiveness of a foreign-exchange rule that has restricted
banks to sending only one dollar abroad for every one they bring in. China’s
foreign trade can’t afford just to break even; it needs to generate a
significant surplus to cover these leakages.
For years, China drove global demand
for many raw materials, accounting for more than 50% of annual growth in
output. The subsequent downshift has had an enormous spillover impact. The
question for businesses around the world is whether this is a temporary or
structural phenomenon. With an excessively indebted economy, slowing growth and
a rapidly aging population, it’s almost impossible to see China returning to
the pre-2015 rate of expansion.
Headlines about the trade war understandably grab attention
but the reality is more mundane and worrisome. Irrespective of what happens to
the bilateral trading relationship, the world is coming to the end of China’s
rapid-growth era.
Translation
（彭博社觀點）-國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）等投資者和機構正為中美貿易戰可能導致全球經濟衰退的風險而擔憂。他們的擔心是放錯了地方。全球經濟增長的真正危險是中國國內經濟的疲軟。
美國貿易總額並未下降。相反，它的增長速度是等於,
或只略低於十年的增長速度。它與越南和墨西哥等合作夥伴的貿易增長抵消了往返中國的貨運量下降的影響。在可以輕鬆替換商品的廣闊的全球市場中，製造商將吸收價格信號，然後轉向其他生產商。這就是正在發生的事情，因為美國關稅提高了進口中國產品的成本。結果是，即使增長急劇放緩，中美爭端也沒有使全球貿易水平發生任何實質變化。
更有趣的是中國的貿易模式變化。儘管美國的採購構仍接近長期趨勢，但中國在大多數產品類型和地理合作夥伴中均呈現下降趨勢。截至今年9月，中國從世界其他地區的進口下降了5％。為什麼顯示出與美國如此的分歧？
有以下三個特定原因：
首先，中國經濟的增長速度遠低於6％的整體預期。從智能手機和汽車到洗衣機的消費品銷售正在下降或趨於喘定。日本和德國的精密機械等特種貿易產品也有類似的下降，這些產品發往中國市場，而不僅僅是作為最終为出口到美國而輸入的商品。第二，似乎有一個有意識的計劃去替代進口, 即使國內商品成本是高得多，旨在有利於中國生產者。澳大利亞等國家生產的鐵礦石和煤炭比中國公司便宜。然而，這些商品的國內產出增長超過了進口的增長。無論是半導體還是大宗商品，中國都在執行一項計劃，以擺脫進口。第三，美元流動性不足限制了中國從事國際貿易的能力。執行上的漏洞削弱了實施外匯交易規則的有效性，該規則限制了銀行只能在每進口一美元才可以匯出一美元至國外。中國的對外貿易只是收支平衡是不夠的。它需要產生大量盈餘來彌補這些漏洞。
多年來，中國推動了全球對許多原材料的需求，佔總產量年增長率的50％以上。隨後的下降引出了巨大的附帶影響。對世界各地企業來說, 問題在於這暫時的還是結構性的現象。由於經濟負債累累，經濟增長放緩以及人口迅速老齡化，幾乎不可能看到中國恢復到2015年前的擴張速度。
可以理解的是，有關貿易戰的頭條新聞吸引了人們的注意，但現實是較平淡而令人擔憂。無論雙邊貿易關係發生了什麼，世界都快到了中國快速增長時代的盡頭。
So, the
economy inside China is slowing down.
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