出生数90万人割れへ 19年、推計より2年早く
社会保障・成長に影
経済
2019/10/7 2:00日本経済新聞 電子版
日本の出生数が急減している。1～7月は前年同期に比べて5.9%減り、30年ぶりの減少ペースとなった。団塊ジュニア世代が40代後半になり、出産期の女性が減ったことが大きい。2016年に100万人を下回ってからわずか3年で、19年は90万人を割る可能性が高い。政府の想定を超える少子化は社会保障制度や経済成長に影を落とす。出産や子育てをしやすい環境の整備が急務だ。
厚生労働省の人口動態統計（速報）によると、1～7月の出生数は前年同期比5.9%減の51万8590人。減少は4年連続だが、19年は月次でも3月に7.1%減となるなど、大きな落ち込みが続く。18年1～7月は同2.0%減だった。
日本総合研究所の藤波匠氏は「団塊ジュニアの出産期の終わりを映している」という。1971～74年生まれのこの世代は、19年にはすべて45歳以上になる。
18年10月1日時点の人口推計によると、日本人の女性は40歳代の907万人に対し、30歳代は23%少ない696万人、20歳代は36%少ない578万人。出産期の女性が大きく減っている。
1人の女性が生涯に生む子どもの数にあたる合計特殊出生率は18年に1.42と、3年続けて下がった。結婚して子どもを産みたいと考える人の希望がかなった場合の値は1.8で、理想と実態の差は大きい。政府はこの「希望出生率1.8」を25年度に実現することを目標に、保育所の整備や育児休業の推進などに取り組んできたが、効果は十分ではない。出生率が上がらなければ、出生減には歯止めがかからない。
人口動態統計の速報値は外国人による日本での出産と、日本人の海外での出産が含まれる。政府が公表する年間の出生数は3万人程度のこれらを除いて、18年の日本人の出生数は約91.8万人だった。19年は7月までの減少ペースが続けば、90万人を割り込む公算が大きい。外国人を含んでも90万人に届かない可能性がある。
国立社会保障・人口問題研究所が17年にまとめた推計では、19年の出生数は92万1千人（総人口ベース）だった。90万人割れは21年（88.6万人）としており、仮に19年なら2年早い。
少子化は現役世代が高齢者を支える形の医療や年金、介護の社会保障の枠組みを揺らす。特に公的年金は現役世代が払う保険料で支えており、担い手が減れば年金の支給額に響く。高齢者増で膨らむ医療費も、少ない現役世代にしわ寄せがいく。
少子化が進めば、一部業種での人手不足は一段と深刻になる。若い世代を中心に労働力の減少は、経済の潜在成長率も下押しする。
出生数を回復するためには、若い女性が出産しやすい環境づくりが課題だ。日本の出生率を年代別にみると30歳代後半については、1.7～1.9台と高いフランスやスウェーデンとも差はない。各国を大きく下回るのは20歳代だ。
正社員の終身雇用が多い日本の労働慣行では、出産や育児で休職するとキャリアが積み上がらず、仕事上の不利になりやすい。晩産化が進んで第2子以降は望んでもかないにくい状況にある。夫による子育ての参加拡大を認める企業文化の定着を含め、少子化対策を変えていく必要がある。
出生数の大幅な減少は海外でも相次いでいる。米国では18年の出生数が32年ぶりの低い水準だった。韓国の19年1～6月の出生数は約8%減と大きく落ち込んだ。
Translation
The number of births in Japan was declining rapidly. From
January to July, it decreased by 5.9% compared to the same period of the
previous year, it was a decrease pacing not seen in 30 years. The baby boomers were
in their late 40s, and the number of women in childbirth had decreased. Just
three years after falling below 1 million in 2016, it was likely to drop below 900,000
in 2019. The declining birthrate that surpassed government expectations had caste
a shadow on the social security system and economic growth. There was an urgent
need to create an environment that facilitated childbirth and child-rearing.
According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare's
demographic statistics (preliminary report), the number of births from January
to July was 518,590, a decrease of 5.9% year-on-year. While the decline had
been for 4 years in a row, in 2019, month after month the decline in March was 7.1%.
It was a 2.0% down from January to July 2018 year-on-year.
Mr. Takumi Fujinami of the Japan Research Institute said,
“It reflects the end of the baby boomer's childbirth”. Born in 1971-74, all
this generation would be over 45-years-old in 2019.
According to the population estimate as of October 1, 2018, comparing
to the number of Japanese women in the 40s which was at 9.07 million, those in the
30s was 23% less to stand at 6.96 million and those in the 20s was 36% less at 5.78
million. The number of women in childbirth period had substantially decreased.
The total fertility rate, which was the number of children a
woman would have in her lifetime, had decreased to 1.42 in 2018, a continuous drop
for three years. The rate for a person who wanted to marry and give birth to a
child was 1.8, and there was a big difference between the ideal and the actual
situation. The government had been working on the establishment of daycare
centers and the promotion of childcare leave with a goal of achieving the
"desired fertility rate of 1.8" in 2015, but the result was not good.
If the fertility rate did not increase, there would be no end to the decreasing
births.
The preliminary figures for demographic statistics had included
births in Japan by foreigners, and also overseas births by Japanese. Except for
these annual number of births as announced by the government which stood at
about 30,000, the number of Japanese births in 2018 was about 918,000. In 2019,
if the rate of decline continued until July, it was likely that this number might
drop below 900,000. Even including foreigners, it might not reach 900,000.
According to an estimate compiled by the National Institute
of Population and Social Security Research in 2017, the birth rate in 2019 would
be 921,000 (based on the total population). There would be a dropping below
900,000 people at 2021 (886,000 people), and if this happened in 2019, it came
two years early.
The declining birthrate shook the social security framework
of medical care, pensions, and nursing care in which the active generation was supporting
the elderly. In particular, the public pension was supported by insurance
premiums paid by the present generation. If the number of participants was
reduced, the amount paid would be affected. The medical expenses that might increase
due to an increase in the number of elderly people would burden the insufficient
working generation.
As the birthrate declined, labor shortages in some
industries would become more serious. The decline in the labor force,
especially in the younger generation, would also lower the economic growth
rate.
In order to improve the number of births, there was the
challenge to create an environment where young women could easily give birth.
Looking at Japan's fertility rate by age group, among the late 30s, it was
1.7-1.9 units, which was not as high as France or Sweden. It was among the 20s
that there was a big drop in all countries.
In Japan's labor practice, where life-long employment was often
practiced, taking a leave for childbirth or childcare would not be a plus for
the career and tended to be a disadvantage for work. It was difficult to hope for further after a second child because of the late birth. It was necessary to change
measures now employed to check the declining birthrate, including the
establishment of a corporate culture that would allow husbands to increase
their child-rearing participation.
Overseas, there had been a significant decrease in the
number of births. In the United States, the number of births in 2018 was at the
lowest level in 32 years. The number of births in South Korea from January to
June 2019 fell sharply by about 8%.
It seems
that a dropping in birth rate is a world-wide phenomenon in many countries.
沒有留言:
張貼留言