中國對歐盟說它無法接受俄羅斯輸掉對烏克蘭的戰爭 - 官員稱

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

China tells EU it can’t accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine, official says

Nick Paton Walsh, CNN Chief International Security Correspondent

Fri, July 4, 2025 at 9:38 a.m. PDT·3 min read

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the European Union’s top diplomat that Beijing can’t accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine as this could allow the United States to turn its full attention to China, an official briefed on the talks said, contradicting Beijing’s public position of neutrality in the conflict.

The admission came during what the official said was a four-hour meeting with EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas on Wednesday in Brussels that “featured tough but respectful exchanges, covering a broad range of issues from cyber security, rare earths to trade imbalances, Taiwan and Middle East.”

The official said Wang’s private remarks suggested Beijing might prefer a protracted war in Ukraine that keeps the United States from focusing on its rivalry with China. They echo concerns of critics of China’s policy that Beijing has geopolitically much more at stake in the Ukrainian conflict than its admitted position of neutrality.

On Friday, at a regular Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs briefing, spokeswoman Mao Ning was asked about the exchange, which was first reported in the South China Morning Post, and re-affirmed Beijing’s long-standing position on the three-year war.

“China is not a party to the Ukraine issue,” Mao said. “China’s position on the Ukraine crisis is objective and consistent, that is, negotiation, ceasefire and peace. A prolonged Ukraine crisis serves no one’s interests.”

She added that China wanted a political settlement as quickly as possible: “Together with the international community and in light of the will of the parties concerned, we will continue playing a constructive role towards this end.”

China’s public statements on the Ukraine war mask a more complex picture.

Just weeks before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Chinese leader Xi Jinping declared a “no limits” partnership with Moscow and since then political and economic ties have strengthened.

China has put itself forward as a possible peacemaker, but as CNN has previously reported the stakes are high for Beijing, not least potentially losing a major partner in Russia.

China has also rejected growing accusations it is providing near-military support to Russia. Ukraine has sanctioned several Chinese companies for providing Russia drone components and technology for use in missile production.

After a record assault on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv on Friday, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Andrii Sybiha, posted pictures he said were the fragments of a Geran 2 combat drone launched by Russia. One image displayed part of the drone’s alleged fuselage which said the device was made in China on June 20.

Sybiha added that night the “Chinese Consulate General’s building in Odesa suffered minor damage as a result of Russian strikes on the city. There is no better metaphor for how Putin continues to escalate his war and terror while involving others, including North Korean troops, Iranian weapons, and some Chinese manufacturers. Security in Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific is inextricably linked.”

This year also saw allegations that Chinese nationals have been fighting with Russia in Ukraine. Beijing denied any involvement and repeated previous calls for Chinese citizens to “refrain from participating in military actions of any party.”

Translation

中國對歐盟說它無法接受俄羅斯輸掉對烏克蘭的戰爭 - 官員稱

一位了解會談情況的官員表示，中國外交部長王毅告訴歐盟最高外交官，北京無法接受俄羅斯輸掉對烏克蘭的戰爭，因為這可能會讓美國將全部注意力轉向中國，這與北京在衝突中保持中立的公開立場相矛盾。

這位官員表示，王毅是在周三與歐盟外交事務負責人 Kaja Kallas 在布魯塞爾舉行的四小時會談中承認的。會談「內容是強硬但相互尊重的交流，涵蓋了從網路安全、稀土到貿易失衡、台灣和中東等一系列廣泛議題」。

這位官員表示，王毅的私人言論暗示，北京可能更傾向烏克蘭的持久戰，這樣美國就不會專注於與中國的競爭。他們的觀點呼應了批評中國政策人士的擔憂，他們認為，北京在烏克蘭衝突中的地緣政治利益遠大於其所承認的中立立場。

週五，在中國外交部例行記者會上，發言人毛寧被問及此次交流（該交流最早由《南華早報》報道）時，重申了北京對這場持續三年的戰爭的長期立場。

毛寧說: 「中國不是烏克蘭問題的當事人」; 「中國在烏克蘭危機問題上的立場是客觀和一貫的，即談判、停火、和平。烏克蘭危機長期化不符合任何人的利益」。

 她補充說，中國希望盡快實現政治解決： 「我們將繼續與國際社會一道，根據有關各方的意願，為此發揮建設性作用」。

中國關於烏克蘭戰爭的公開聲明掩蓋了更複雜的局面。

就在俄羅斯全面入侵烏克蘭的幾週前，中國領導人習近平宣布與莫斯科建立「無限制」夥伴關係，此後兩國政治和經濟關係不斷加強。

中國一直將自己定位為潛在的和平締造者，但正如美國有線電視新聞網（CNN）先前報導的那樣，北京方面的風險很高，尤其是可能失去俄羅斯這個重要的合作夥伴。

中國也否認了越來越多的指控，稱其向俄羅斯提供近乎軍事的支持。烏克蘭已對多家中國公司實施制裁，原因是這些公司向俄羅斯提供用於飛彈生產的無人機零件和技術。

在烏克蘭首都基輔週五遭受創紀錄的襲擊後，烏克蘭外交部長 Andrii Sybiha 發布了一些照片，他稱這些照片是俄羅斯發射的“Geran 2”型作戰無人機的碎片。一張圖片展示了據稱是該無人機機身的一部分，並稱該裝置於6月20日在中國製造。

Sybiha 當晚補充道: 「中國駐敖德薩總領事館大樓在俄羅斯對敖德薩的空襲中遭受了輕微損壞。沒有比這更好的比喻來形容普京如何不斷升級其戰爭和恐怖活動，同時又牽涉到朝鮮軍隊、伊朗武器以及一些中國製造商等其他勢力。歐洲、中東和印度-太平洋地區的安全是連在一起的」。

今年還有指控稱，中國公民在烏克蘭與俄羅斯交戰。北京否認有任何牽連，並重申先前有呼籲中國公民「不要參與任何一方的軍事行動」。

So, China had told the European Union’s top diplomat that Beijing could not accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine as this could allow the United States to turn its full attention to China. Apparently, China is not a neutral party to this conflict. 

分析顯示，特朗普的關稅將使美國雇主損失823億美元

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Analysis shows Trump's tariffs would cost US employers $82.3 billion

The Associated Press - Josh Boak

Wed, July 2, 2025 at 7:51 a.m. PDT 4 min read

WASHINGTON (AP) — An analysis finds that a critical group of U.S. employers would face a direct cost of $82.3 billion from President Donald Trump’s current tariff plans, a sum that could be potentially managed through price hikes, layoffs, hiring freezes or lower profit margins.

The analysis by the JPMorganChase Institute is among the first to measure the direct costs created by the import taxes on businesses with $10 million to $1 billion in annual revenue, a category that includes roughly a third of private-sector U.S. workers. These companies are more dependent than other businesses on imports from China, India and Thailand — and the retail and wholesale sectors would be especially vulnerable to the import taxes being levied by the Republican president.

The findings show clear trade-offs from Trump’s import taxes, contradicting his claims that foreign manufacturers would absorb the costs of the tariffs instead of U.S. companies that rely on imports. While the tariffs launched under Trump have yet to boost overall inflation, large companies such as Amazon, Costco, Walmart and Williams-Sonoma delayed the potential reckoning by building up their inventories before the taxes could be imposed.

The analysis comes just ahead of the July 9 deadline by Trump to formally set the tariff rates on goods from dozens of countries. Trump imposed that deadline after the financial markets panicked in response to his April tariff announcements, prompting him to instead schedule a 90-day negotiating period when most imports faced a 10% baseline tariff. China, Mexico and Canada face higher rates, and there are separate 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Had the initial April 2 tariffs stayed in place, the companies in the JPMorganChase Institute analysis would have faced additional direct costs of $187.6 billion. Under the current rates, the $82.3 billion would be equivalent on average to $2,080 per employee, or 3.1% of the average annual payroll. Those averages include firms that don't import goods and those that do.

Asked Tuesday how trade talks are faring, Trump said simply: “Everything’s going well.”

The president has indicated he will set tariff rates given the logistical challenge of negotiating with so many nations. As the 90-day period comes to a close, only the United Kingdom has signed a trade framework with the Trump administration. Trump announced Wednesday he has reached a deal with Vietnam, with details to follow. India has signaled it is close to agreeing on a trade framework.

There is a growing body of evidence suggesting that more inflation could surface. The investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a report that it expects companies to pass along 60% of their tariff costs onto consumers. The Atlanta Federal Reserve has used its survey of businesses’ inflation expectations to say that companies could on average pass along roughly half their costs from a 10% tariff or a 25% tariff without reducing consumer demand.

The JPMorganChase Institute findings suggest that the tariffs could cause some domestic manufacturers to strengthen their roles as suppliers of goods. But it noted that companies need to plan for a range of possible outcomes and that wholesalers and retailers already operate on such low profit margins that they might need to spread the tariffs costs to their customers.

The outlook for tariffs remains highly uncertain. Trump had stopped negotiations with Canada, only to restart them after the country dropped its plan to tax digital services. He similarly on Monday threatened more tariffs on Japan unless it buys more rice from the U.S.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a Tuesday interview that the concessions from the trade talks have impressed career officials at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and other agencies.

“People who have been at Treasury, at Commerce, at USTR for 20 years are saying that these are deals like they’ve never seen before,” Bessent said on Fox News Channel’s “Fox & Friends.”

The treasury secretary said the Trump administration plans to discuss the contours of trade deals next week, prioritizing the tax cuts package passed on Tuesday by the Republican majority in the Senate. Trump has set a Friday deadline for passage of the multitrillion-dollar package, the costs of which the president hopes to offset with tariff revenues.

Translation

分析顯示，特朗普的關稅將使美國雇主損失823億美元

華盛頓（美聯社）— 一項分析發現，特朗普總統目前的關稅計劃將使美國一個關鍵的雇主群體直接損失823億美元，這筆損失可以透過漲價、裁員、凍結招聘或降低利潤率來控制。

摩根大通研究所的這項分析是首批評估進口稅對年收入1,000萬至10億美元企業造成的直接成本的分析之一，這類企業約佔美國私人企業員工的三分之一。與其他企業相比，這些企業更依賴從中國、印度和泰國進口的商品 - 而零售和批發業尤其容易受到共和黨總統徵收的進口稅的影響。

研究結果清楚地表明，特朗普的進口稅存在利弊權衡，這與他聲稱外國製造商將承擔關稅成本，而不是依賴進口的美國公司的說法相矛盾。雖然特朗普政府推出的關稅尚未推高整體通膨，但亞馬遜、好市多、沃爾瑪和威廉斯-索諾瑪等大型企業在關稅生效前囤積庫存，從而延緩了潛在的後果。

這項分析報告發佈於特朗普正式設定對數十個國家商品徵收關稅的7月9日最後期限之前。特朗普設定這一最後期限是因為金融市場對他4月的關稅聲明感到恐慌，促使他安排了一個90天的談判期，在此期間大多數進口產品將面臨10%的基準關稅。中國、墨西哥和加拿大將面臨更高的關稅，鋼鐵和鋁也將分別面臨50%的關稅。

如果最初4月2日的關稅維持不變，摩根大通研究所分析的公司將面臨1,876億美元的額外直接成本。依照目前的轉換率，這823億美元相當於平均每位員工2,080美元，佔平均年薪的3.1%。這些平均值包括不進口商品的公司和進口商品的公司。

週二，當特朗普被問及貿易談判進展如何時，他簡單地回答： “一切進展順利。”

總統已表示，鑑於與眾多國家談判的後勤挑戰，他將自行設定關稅稅率。隨著90天期限的結束，只有英國與特朗普政府簽署了貿易框架協議。特朗普週三宣布，他已與越南達成協議，具體細節將隨後公佈。印度已表示即將就貿易框架協議達成協議。

越來越多的證據表明，通膨可能進一步加劇。投資銀行高盛在報告中表示，預計企業將把60%的關稅成本轉嫁給消費者。亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行利用其企業通膨預期調查結果顯示，企業平均可以將10%或25%關稅帶來的約一半負担轉嫁出去，而不會減少消費者需求。

摩根大通研究所的調查結果表明，關稅可能會導致一些國內製造商強化其作為商品供應商的角色。但該研究所指出，企業需要為一系列可能的結果做好規劃，而批發商和零售商的利潤率已經很低，他們可能需要將關稅成本分攤給客戶。

關稅前景仍然高度不確定。特朗普先前曾停止與加拿大的談判，但在加拿大放棄對數位服務徵稅計劃後，談判才得以重啟。週一，他還威脅稱，除非日本從美國購買更多大米，否則將對日本徵收更多關稅。

財政部長貝森特在周二的一次採訪中表示，貿易談判中收到的讓步給美國貿易代表辦公室和其他機構的職業官員留下了深刻的印象。

貝森特在霍仕新聞頻道的「霍仕與朋友」節目中說道: 「在財政部、商務部和美國貿易代表辦公室工作了20年的人們都說，這些協議是他們從未見過的」。

財政部長表示，特朗普政府計劃下週討論貿易協議的框架，優先處理共和黨在參議院多數席位之下於週二通過的減稅方案。特朗普已設定週五為通過這項數萬億美元方案的最後期限，總統希望用關稅收入來抵銷其方案的成本。

So, an analysis finds that a critical group of U.S. employers would face a direct cost of $82.3 billion from President Donald Trump’s current tariff plans, a sum that could be potentially managed through price hikes, layoffs, hiring freezes or lower profit margins. Apparently, US companies need to plan for a range of possible outcomes caused by the tariffs war.

比特幣上漲更多受機構需求而非投機驅動

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Bitcoin rally driven more by institutional demand than speculation

Reuters - Patturaja Murugaboopathy

Mon, July 14, 2025 at 8:09 a.m. PDT·2 min read

(Reuters) -As bitcoin hit a record high on Monday, evidence from institutional flows and derivatives suggested its rally might be more stable and lasting than previous speculative runs.

Bitcoin crossed $120,000 for the first time on optimism over upcoming U.S. House discussions on digital asset regulation, extending its gains this year to about 30%.

The rise has been fuelled by strong flows into bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and rising corporate treasury allocations.

Analysts said bitcoin's surge is driven this time by institutional flows and reflects its evolution into a more stable asset, sought after as investors seek diversification from market volatility and a wobbly U.S. dollar.

Institutional inflows tend to be longer-term and less prone to rapid reversal, lending greater stability and durability to the current rally.

Bitcoin ETFs have made a strong start to July, attracting $3.4 billion in inflows so far. That includes a record $2.2 billion over the past two days, the largest two-day net inflow on record, according to data from Farside Investors.

At the same time, open interest in bitcoin futures rose to a record $57.4 billion as of Friday, data from CoinDesk shows.

Open interest tracks the total value of outstanding futures contracts, and a sustained rise often points to greater institutional involvement, as larger investors tend to hold bigger, longer-term positions and use futures for hedging.

Yet, funding rates in the futures market remain subdued. According to CoinDesk, the annualised funding rate stood at 10%, well below the 80% peaks of 2023 and 40% at the end of last year.

The funding rate reflects the cost traders pay to keep bullish, leveraged bets open in the futures market. A decline signals they’re less willing to pay to stay in those positions — a sign of reduced speculative demand.

Glassnode data shows bitcoin’s estimated leverage ratio has declined to 0.25, down from 0.32 at the start of 2025.

The leverage ratio compares how large traders’ futures bets are relative to the amount of bitcoin on exchanges. A lower ratio means those bets are backed by more real capital and less borrowed money.

Glassnode data also showed an increase in short liquidations as traders betting against bitcoin bought back the token as prices rose, adding momentum to the rally.

Translation

比特幣上漲更多受機構需求而非投機驅動

（路透社）— 隨著比特幣週一創下歷史新高，機構資金流動和衍生性商品交易的證據表明，其漲勢可能比以往的投機性上漲更穩定、更持久。

由於對美國眾議院即將就數位資產監管進行討論的樂觀情緒，比特幣價格首次突破12萬美元，今年以來漲幅已擴大至約30%。

比特幣上漲的動力源自於大量資金流入比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）以及企業債配置的增加。

分析師表示，此次比特幣的飆升是由機構資金流動推動的，反映出其正逐漸成為更穩定的資產，投資者尋求分散投資以規避市場波動和美元波動的影響，因此比特幣受到追捧。

機構資金流入往往持續時間較長，且不易出現快速逆轉，這為當前的漲勢提供了更高的穩定性和持久性。

比特幣ETF在7月表現強勁，迄今已吸引34億美元的資金流入。根據Farside Investors的數據，過去兩天流入資金達創紀錄的22億美元，創下有史以來最大的雙日淨流入紀錄。

同時，CoinDesk的數據顯示，截至週五，比特幣期貨未平倉合約增至創紀錄的574億美元。

根據未平倉合約可以去追蹤未到期貨合約的總價值，持續上漲通常表示機構投資者的參與度有所提升，因為規模較大的投資者往往持有規模更大、期限更長的倉位，並使用期貨進行對沖。

然而，期貨市場的融資利率仍然低迷。根據CoinDesk的數據，年化融資利率為10%，遠低於2023年的80%高峰和去年年底的40%。

融資利率反映了交易員在期貨市場維持看漲槓桿部位所支付的成本。融資利率下降表明他們不太願意為維持這些部位而去支付費用 - 這顯示出投機需求有所減少。

Glassnode 的數據顯示，比特幣的預估槓桿率已從 2025 年初的 0.32 降至 0.25。

槓桿率指的是交易員的期貨押注規模與交易所比特幣數量的比例。較低的槓桿率意味著這些押注背後有更多由實資本和更少由借款支持。

Glassnode 的數據還顯示，由於空頭清算 (short liquidations) 數量增加，做空比特幣的交易員在價格上漲時回購了比特幣, 這為比特幣的上漲增添了動力。

       So, as bitcoin hit a record high on Monday, evidence from institutional flows and derivatives suggested its rally might be more stable and lasting than previous speculative runs. Apparently, bitcoin is gaining popularity in many countries, including the US.

Note:

1. Bitcoin ETFs (exchange‑traded funds)(比特幣交易所交易基金) are investment funds traded like stocks that let you gain exposure to Bitcoin indirectly, without owning or managing the cryptocurrency yourself. A spot Bitcoin ETF holds actual Bitcoin in custody and issues shares designed to track the current market price of Bitcoin while a Bitcoin futures ETF invests in futures contracts tied to Bitcoin's expected price rather than owning Bitcoin directly. (ChatGPT)

2. Open interest (futures) (未平倉合約) is the number of "open" contracts or open interest of derivatives in the futures market. Open interest in a derivative is the sum of all contracts that have not expired, been exercised or physically delivered. Open interest is used as a technical indicator as it is a measure of market activity. Little or no open interest means there is no one opening positions, or nearly all the positions have been closed. High open interest means there are many contracts still open and means that new or additional money are coming into the market. (Wikipedia)

3. In trading and finance, a short liquidation (空頭清算)refers to the forced closing of a short position—usually due to insufficient margin to support losses.  A short selling is that you borrow shares from a broker and immediately sell them, hoping the price drops. If you buy them back (cover) at a lower price, return them, you pocket the difference. (ChatGPT)

關稅衝擊令美國製造業陷入泥沼

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

US manufacturing mired in weakness as tariffs bite

Reuters - Lucia Mutikani

Tue, July 1, 2025 at 7:02 a.m. PDT·2 min read

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. manufacturing remained sluggish in June, with new orders subdued and prices paid for inputs creeping higher, suggesting that the Trump administration's tariffs on imported goods continued to hamper businesses' ability to plan ahead.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Tuesday that its manufacturing PMI nudged up to 49.0 last month from a six-month low of 48.5 in May. It was the fourth straight month that the PMI was below the 50 mark, which indicates contraction in the sector that accounts for 10.2% of the economy. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PMI little changed at 48.8.

The survey joined weak data on the housing market, consumer spending and swelling unemployment rolls that have suggested the economy's underlying momentum slowed further in the second quarter even as gross domestic product probably rebounded as the drag from a record trade deficit faded due to falling imports.

A measure of domestic demand grew at its slowest pace in more than two years in the January-March quarter. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, which have led businesses and households to front-run imports and goods purchases to avoid higher prices from duties, have muddled the economic picture. Economists warned it could take time for the tariff-related distortions to wash out of the economic data.

The PMI last month was likely lifted by longer delivery times, which under normal circumstances would be related to strong demand. The extensive tariffs have caused bottlenecks in the supply chain, resulting in factories waiting longer for raw material deliveries.

The ISM survey's supplier deliveries index slipped to 54.2 from 56.1 in May, though it was still high with a reading above 50 indicating slower deliveries. The ISM has reported "ongoing delays in clearing goods through ports of entry."

The situation, however, appears to have improved slightly, with the survey's imports measure rising to a still-subdued 47.4 after slumping to 39.9 in May. Manufacturing is heavily reliant on imported raw materials.

Though production at factories picked up last month, it was probably the result of manufacturers working through backlog orders. The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index dropped to 46.4 from 47.6 in May. This measure has now contracted for five consecutive months.

Its gauge of prices paid by factories for inputs ticked up to 69.7 from 69.4 in the prior month.

With manufacturers facing weak demand and higher prices for inputs, employment declined further last month. The survey's measure of manufacturing employment fell to 45.0 from 46.8 in May. The ISM has noted an "acceleration of headcount reductions due to uncertain near- to mid-term demand."

Translation

關稅衝擊令美國製造業陷入泥沼

華盛頓（路透）－美國製造業6月依然獃滯，新訂單低迷，入貨價格攀升，這顯示特朗普政府對進口商品徵收的關稅持續阻礙企業提前規劃的能力。

美國供應管理協會（ISM）週二公佈，其製造業 PMI 指數從5月的六個月低點 48.5 小幅回升至49.0。這是該指數連續第四個月低於50的關口，顯示佔美國經濟10.2%的製造業正在萎縮。路透社調查的經濟學家先前曾預測PMI指數將基本持平於48.8。

這項調查與疲軟的房地產市場、消費者支出和不斷膨脹的失業人數等數據結合一起，表明美國經濟第二季度的潛在增長勢頭進一步放緩，儘管國內生產總值 (GDP) 因進口減少而出現的創紀錄貿易減弱了赤字的拖累。

衡量國內需求的一項指標在1-3月季度增速創下兩年多來的最低水準。特朗普總統的全面關稅措施導致企業和家庭搶先購買進口商品，以避免關稅導致的價格上漲，這擾亂了經濟狀況。經濟學家警告稱，關稅相關的扭曲因素可能需要一段時間才能從經濟數據中消退。

上個月的 PMI 數據的上升可能是由於交貨時間延長所致，在正常情況下，交貨時間延長與需求強勁有關。廣泛的關稅導致了供應鏈出現瓶頸，導致工廠等待原材料交付的時間更長。

美國供應管理協會 的調查供應商交貨指數從5月的56.1下滑至54.2，但該指數仍處於高位，高於50的讀數顯示交貨速度放緩。 協會報告稱，「貨物透過入境口岸的清關持續有延誤」。

不過，情況似乎略有改善，該調查的進口指標在5月暴跌至39.9之後，回升至仍低迷的47.4。製造業嚴重依賴進口原料。

儘管上個月工廠產量有所回升，但這可能是製造商處理積壓訂單的結果。 美國供應管理協會 調查的前瞻性新訂單分項指數從5月的47.6降至46.4。此指標已連續五個月收縮。

該分項指數衡量工廠投入品支付價格，從上個月的69.4小幅上升至69.7。

由於製造商面臨需求疲軟和投入品價格上漲，上個月就業人數進一步下降。調查的製造業的就業指數從5月的46.8降至45.0。 協會指出， “由於近期至中期需求的不確定性，裁員速度正在加快。”

              So, ISM said that its manufacturing PMI went up to 49.0 last month from a six-month low of 48.5 in May. It was the fourth straight month that the PMI was below the 50-mark. U.S. manufacturing remained sluggish in June, with new orders subdued and prices paid for inputs going higher, suggesting that the Trump administration's tariffs on imported goods continued to hamper businesses' ability to plan ahead.

美國經濟1月至3月萎縮0.5%，低於先前兩次預估

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

US economy shrank 0.5% between January and March, worse than 2 earlier estimates had revealed

The Associated Press - Paul Wiseman

Thu, June 26, 2025 at 8:02 a.m. PDT·3 min read

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.5% annual pace from January through March as President Donald Trump’s trade wars disrupted business, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in an unexpected deterioration of earlier estimates.

First-quarter growth was weighed down by a surge of imports as U.S. companies, and households, rushed to buy foreign goods before Trump could impose tariffs on them. The Commerce Department previously estimated that the economy fell 0.2% in the first quarter. Economists had forecast no change in the department's third and final estimate.

The January-March drop in gross domestic product — the nation’s output of goods and services — reversed a 2.4% increase in the last three months of 2024 and marked the first time in three years that the economy contracted. Imports expanded 37.9%, fastest since 2020, and pushed GDP down by nearly 4.7 percentage points.

Consumer spending also slowed sharply, expanding just 0.5%, down from a robust 4% in the fourth-quarter of last year. It is a significant downgrade from the Commerce Department's previous estimate.

Consumers have turned jittery since Trump started plastering big taxes on imports, anticipating that the tariffs will impact their finances directly.

And the Conference Board reported this week that Americans’ view of the U.S. economy worsened in June, resuming a downward slide that had dragged consumer confidence in April to its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic five years ago.

The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index slid to 93 in June, down 5.4 points from 98.4 last month. A measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for their income, business conditions and the job market fell 4.6 points to 69. That’s well below 80, the marker that can signal a recession ahead.

A category within the GDP data that measures the economy’s underlying strength rose at a 1.9% annual rate from January through March. It's a decent number, but down from 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and from the Commerce Department's previous estimate of 2.5% January-March growth.

This category includes consumer spending and private investment but excludes volatile items like exports, inventories and government spending. Ryan Sweet of Oxford Economics called the downgrade in that figure “troubling,″ though he doesn’t expect to make a significant change to his near-term economic forecast.

And federal government spending fell at a 4.6% annual pace, the biggest drop since 2022.

Trade deficits reduce GDP. But that’s just a matter of mathematics. GDP is supposed to count only what’s produced domestically, not stuff that comes in from abroad. So imports — which show up in the GDP report as consumer spending or business investment — have to be subtracted out to keep them from artificially inflating domestic production.

The first-quarter import influx likely won’t be repeated in the April-June quarter and therefore shouldn’t weigh on GDP. In fact, economists expect second-quarter growth to bounce back to 3% in the second quarter, according to a survey of forecasters by the data firm FactSet.

The first look at April-June GDP growth is due July 30.

Translation

美國經濟1月至3月萎縮0.5%，低於先前兩次預估

華盛頓（美聯社）- 美國商務部周四報告稱，商業活動受特朗普總統貿易戰影響，美國經濟1月至3月以0.5%的年率萎縮，這比之前的預估意外地惡化。

由於美國企業和家庭在特朗普加徵關稅之前爭相購買外國商品，進口激增拖累了第一季的經濟成長。美國商務部先前估計，第一季經濟下滑0.2%。經濟學家預測商務部的第三次和最後一次預估將維持不變。

1-3月，美國國內生產毛額（GDP) ，即美國商品和服務產出出現下滑，扭轉了2024年第四季2.4%的增幅，並標誌著美國經濟三年來首次萎縮。進口成長37.9%，為2020年以來的最快成長速度，亦推底GDP近4.7個百分點。

消費者支出也大幅放緩，僅成長0.5%，低於去年第四季4%的強勁增幅。這與美國商務部先前的預期相比之下大幅下調。

自從特朗普開始對進口商品徵收高額關稅以來，消費者一直感到不安，預計關稅將直接影響他們的財務狀況。

世界大型企業聯合會 (Conference Board) 本週報告稱，美國人對美國經濟的看法在6月份惡化，重啟了此前導致消費者信心在4月跌至五年前新冠疫情爆發以來最低水平的下滑趨勢。

世界大型企業聯合會 週二公佈，6月消費者信心指數下滑至93，較上月的98.4下降5.4點。一個衡量美國人對收入、商業狀況和就業市場的短期預期指數下降4.6點至69，遠低於80的水平，而80可能預示著經濟衰退即將來臨。

有一項在GDP數據中衡量經濟基本實力的指標，從1月到3月，以1.9%的年率成長。這是一個不錯的數字，但低於2024年第四季的2.9%，也低於美國商務部先前估計的1月至3月2.5%的成長。

這指標包括消費者支出和私人投資，但不包括出口、庫存和政府支出等波動較大的項目。牛津經濟研究院的 Ryan Sweet 稱該數據的下調 “令人不安” ，但他預計這不會對他的近期經濟預測產生重大影響。

聯邦政府支出以年計下降幅度為 4.6%，為 2022 年以來的最大降幅。

貿易逆差降低 GDP。但這只是一個數學問題。 GDP 應該只計算國內生產的產品，而不計算國外進口的產品。因此，進口 - 即在 GDP 報告中顯示為消費者支出或商業投資 - 必須被扣除，以防止它們人為地抬高國內生產。

第一季的進口湧入可能不會在 4 月至 6 月季度重演，因此不會對 GDP 造成壓力。事實上，根據數據公司 FactSet 對預測人員的調查，經濟學家預計第二季的經濟成長將反彈至 3%。

4 月至 6 月 GDP 成長的首次檢視將於 7 月 30 日到期。

              So, the U.S. economy shrank at a 0.5% annual pace from January through March as President Donald Trump’s trade wars disrupted business. Meanwhile, the Conference Board reported this week that Americans’ view of the U.S. economy worsened in June, resuming a downward slide that had dragged consumer confidence in April to its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic five years ago. Apparently, something is happening in the US economy.

Note:

The Conference Board (世界大型企業聯合會) is a global, non-profit think tank and business membership organization. It provides trusted insights for businesses and has over 1,000 member corporations. The Conference Board's focus is delivering insights to help businesses navigate the economic landscape. (Wikipedia)

烏克蘭稱其遠程無人機襲擊了俄羅斯一家生產致命的「沙赫德」無人機彈頭工廠

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Ukraine says its long-range drones attacked a Russian factory making warheads for its deadly Shaheds

Business Insider - Jake Epstein

Fri, July 4, 2025 at 8:54 a.m. PDT·3 min read

The Ukrainian military said on Friday that it carried out a long-range attack on a Russian factory producing warheads for Moscow's deadly Shahed drones, marking Kyiv's latest deep-strike operation targeting the Kremlin's war machine.

The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said it targeted the JSC FNPC Research Institute of Applied Chemistry in Sergiev Posad, a city just northeast of Moscow, more than 500 kilometers (310 miles) away from Ukraine's border.

The attack was carried out by units of the Unmanned Systems Forces and other elements of the military. The USF, a first-of-its-kind branch of the armed forces that was established last year and focuses solely on drone combat, said soldiers of the 14th separate drone regiment were involved in the operation.

The USF said at least one drone struck the facility, causing a fire and heavy smoke, and that an electric substation that provided power to the site was damaged. It shared footage purporting to show the moment of the attack and the aftermath.

Business Insider could not independently verify all the details of the operation. Russia's defense ministry did not acknowledge the attack, although it did report shooting down Ukrainian drones over Russian territory on Friday.

Ukraine said the JSC FNPC Research Institute of Applied Chemistry, part of Russia's state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec, is under international sanctions because of its involvement in the war. The facility develops and manufactures parts for missile and artillery systems, as well as thermobaric warheads for Shahed drones.

The notorious Shahed-136 is an Iranian-designed drone that Russia now produces at home. Historically, these one-way attack munitions could fly at speeds of over 115 mph with a nearly 90-pound explosive warhead, although the team leader for a Ukrainian mobile air defense unit recently told BI that Moscow had modified the Shaheds to make them faster and deadlier.

Shahed drones are traditionally slower and less lethal than cruise or ballistic missiles, although they are much cheaper, allowing Russia to launch hundreds of them in large-scale attacks. On Thursday night, for instance, Moscow launched at least 330 of them into Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

That attack marked one of the largest Russian bombardments of the war. Ukraine said that Moscow launched 550 munitions, including Shaheds, decoy drones, and cruise and ballistic missiles, mainly targeting the capital city, Kyiv. A majority of the threats were intercepted, although at least 23 people were injured.

The attack came as the Trump administration reportedly halted shipments of crucial weapons, including air defense ammunition, to Ukraine. The move could affect Kyiv's ability to protect itself from the Russian bombardments, which have intensified in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump remains entangled in efforts to secure a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and discussed peace talks in a call with his counterpart, Vladimir Putin, shortly before the huge attack on Thursday.

"Notably, the first air raid alerts in our cities and regions yesterday began to blare almost simultaneously with media reports discussing a phone call between President Trump and Putin," Zelenskyy said.

Translation

烏克蘭稱其遠程無人機襲擊了俄羅斯一家生產致命的「沙赫德」無人機彈頭的工廠

烏克蘭軍方週五表示，對一家為莫斯科生產致命的「沙赫德」無人機的彈頭的俄羅斯工廠進行了遠程攻擊，這是基輔對克里姆林宮戰爭機器的最新一次深入打擊行動。

烏克蘭武裝部隊總參謀部表示，這次攻擊的目標是位於莫斯科東北部 Sergiev Posad 城市的 JSC FNPC 應用化學研究所，該研究所距離烏克蘭邊境超過500公里（310英里）。

此次襲擊由無人系統部隊 (USF) 和其他軍方單位實施。USF 是首個專門從事無人機作戰的武裝部隊, 它於去年成立。部隊表示第14個獨立無人機團的士兵參與了這行動。

USF 表示，至少有一架無人機襲擊了該設施，引發火災和濃煙，為該設施供電的變電站也遭到損壞。 USF 分享了據稱顯示襲擊發生時刻和後果的影片。

Business Insider 無法獨立核實此行動的所有細節。俄羅斯國防部並未承認這起襲擊，但確實有報告稱，週五在俄羅斯領土上空擊落了烏克蘭無人機。

烏克蘭表示，俄羅斯國有國防集團俄羅斯技術集團（Rostec）旗下的 JSC FNPC 應用化學研究所因參與戰爭而受到國際制裁。該研究所研發和生產飛彈和火砲系統的零件，以及「沙赫德」（Shahed）無人機的溫壓彈頭。

悪名昭著的「沙赫德」-136 無人機是由伊朗設計的，目前俄羅斯已在國內生產。歷史上，這些單向攻擊彈藥的飛行速度可達每小時115英里（約184公里），配備近90磅（約44公斤）的爆炸彈頭。不過，烏克蘭機動防空部隊的一位負責人最近告訴 Business Insider，莫斯科對「沙赫德」進行了改進，使其更快、更有殺傷力。

「沙赫德」無人機通常比巡航飛彈或彈道飛彈速度慢、殺傷力更低，但它們價格低得多，這使得俄羅斯能夠發射數百枚這種無人機進行大規模攻擊。例如，俄羅斯總統澤連斯基表示，週四晚間，莫斯科向烏克蘭發射了至少330枚「沙赫德」無人機。

這次襲擊是俄羅斯在戰爭期間規模最大的轟炸之一。烏克蘭稱，莫斯科發射了550枚爆炸物，包括「沙赫德」無人機、誘餌無人機,以及巡航飛彈和彈道飛彈，主要目標是烏克蘭首都基輔。大部分威脅已被攔截，但至少有23人受傷。

據報道，這起攻擊事件發生之際，特朗普政府已暫停向烏克蘭運送包括防空彈藥在內的關鍵武器。此舉可能會影響基輔抵禦俄羅斯轟炸的能力，而俄羅斯在最近幾週加劇了轟炸。

與此同時，特朗普總統仍在努力促成俄烏停火，並在周四大規模襲擊發生前不久, 與俄羅斯總普京通電話並討論了和平談判事宜。

澤連斯基表示： “值得注意的是，昨天我們城市和地區開始發出空襲的警報，時間上幾乎與媒體報道特朗普總統在與普丁通話的同時響起。”

So, Ukraine said that it had carried out a long-range attack on a Russian factory producing warheads for Shahed drones, marking Kyiv's latest deep-strike operation targeting the Kremlin's war machine. The target was in Sergiev Posad, a city just northeast of Moscow, more than 500 kilometers away from Ukraine's border. Apparently, Ukraine has the ability to attack targets over 500 kilometers and Moscow is within the range.

Note

1. Thermobaric warheads (溫壓彈頭) are extremely destructive and psychologically potent, effective in specific tactical scenarios like clearing buildings or caves. While not banned, their severe effects raise significant humanitarian and legal concerns—especially if used in civilian areas. Their use has been documented across multiple conflicts, notably by Russia, the US, and others. (ChatGPT)

美國5月商品貿易逆差因出口下降擴大

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

US goods trade deficit widens in May as exports fall

Reuters - Reporting by Lucia Mutikani

Thu, June 26, 2025 at 6:28 a.m. PDT·1 min read

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. trade deficit in goods increased in May amid a decline in exports, but an ebbing inflow of imports likely positions trade to make a big contribution to gross domestic product in the second quarter.

The goods trade gap widened 11.1% to $96.6 billion last month, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Thursday. Exports of goods dropped $9.7 billion to $179.2 billion. Goods imports were little changed at $275.8 billion.

A flood of imports as businesses rushed to bring in goods before President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs came into effect boosted the goods trade deficit to a record high in the first quarter, accounting for much of the 0.5% annualized rate of decline in GDP during that period.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting GDP accelerating at a 3.4% rate this quarter. Given the gyrations from imports, economists cautioned against interpreting the anticipated bounce back in GDP as a sign of economic strength.

Data on retail sales, the housing and labor markets have suggested economic activity is softening.

 Translation

美國5月商品貿易逆差因出口下降擴大

 華盛頓（路透）－ 在出口下降之際，美國5月商品貿易逆差擴大，但進口流入的減少可能使貿易在第二季對國內生產毛額（GDP）做出重大貢獻。

美國商務部的人口普查局週四表示，上月商品貿易逆差额擴大11.1%，至966億美元。商品出口下降97億美元，至1,792億美元。商品進口基本持平，為2,758億美元。

在特朗普總統全面關稅生效前，企業爭相進口商品，導致進口激增，導致第一季商品貿易逆差創下歷史新高，這在很大程度上導致了同期GDP年化率下降0.5%。

亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行預測本季GDP成長率將達3.4%。鑑於進口的波動，經濟學家警告稱，不應將GDP預期的反彈解讀為經濟強勁的跡象。

零售銷售、房地產和勞動力市場數據表明，經濟活動正在放緩。

So,  businesses had rushed to bring in goods before Trump's sweeping tariffs came into effect and boosted the goods trade deficit to a record high in the first quarter. Apparently, the tariffs are impacting the trade figures and causing them to fluctuate.

Note:

The United States Census Bureau (美國人口普查局), officially the Bureau of the Census, is a principal agency of the U.S. federal statistical system, responsible for producing data about the American people and economy. The U.S. Census Bureau is part of the U.S. Department of Commerce. (Wikipedia)

特朗普的關稅本應會提振美元。那麼，美元為何跌至三年來的最低水準呢？ (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Trump’s tariffs were supposed to strengthen the dollar. So why is it the weakest it’s been in three years? (2/2)

John Towfighi, CNN

Wed, June 25, 2025 at 6:34 a.m. PDT·5 min read

(continue)

Loss of confidence

The dollar’s decline reflects a crisis of confidence in the United States, said Arun Sai, senior multi asset strategist at Pictet Asset Management.

“If you cannot with certainty take a view on the position of the US administration, it’s hard to commit capital,” Sai said. “What we’ve seen with the current administration in the last few months is that this notion of the US being a default destination for global capital is being challenged.”

The Trump administration’s flip-flopping on tariffs has been “detrimental to confidence” in the US dollar, according to Sai.

As Trump’s tariffs roiled markets in early April, there was a simultaneous drop in US stocks, bonds and the dollar that spooked investors. “That’s very peculiar. It doesn’t usually happen in the US,” Sai said. “For us, that’s indicative of a loss of confidence.”

Francesco Pesole, an FX strategist at ING, said the dollar’s status as a strong currency and haven that investors turn to during times of stress is being dented.

“It doesn’t mean it’s going to lose its crown. It doesn’t mean that it’s going to be substituted entirely. The dollar remains the number one currency in most transactions in the world and is still the most liquid one,” Pesole said. “However, there is now a case for markets to see that dominance sort of starting to decline at a faster pace than it has in recent years.”

A survey of global fund managers by Bank of America in June showed the lowest exposure to the US dollar since 2005.

Dollar down, euro up

Meanwhile, there have been more appealing investment opportunities in Europe. As the dollar has declined and the euro has strengthened, there are compelling opportunities to diversify and invest overseas, said Jason Blackwell, chief investment strategist at Focus Partners Wealth.

International stocks can provide better returns in a weaker dollar environment. “We can point to our non-US equity holdings and show what that diversification benefit has looked like year to date,” he said.

The euro is up 11.5% against the dollar this year, hitting its strongest level against the greenback in more than four years.

Blackwell said international mutual funds and ETFs are great opportunities to diversify portfolios. He said he sees the decline in the dollar as less of an indictment of the United States and more of a “positive outlook” for other countries around the globe.

Translation

特朗普的關稅本應會提振美元。那麼，美元為何跌至三年來的最低水準呢？ (2/2)

(繼續)

失去信心

Pictet資產管理公司高級多元資產策略師 Arun Sai表示，美元的下跌反映了人們對美國的信心危機。

Sai說: 「如果你不能準確定地了解美國政府的立場，就很難投入資金」; 「過去幾個月，我們看到現任政府的做法，將美國視作為全球資本默認目的地的理念正在受到挑戰」。

Sai認為，特朗普政府在關稅問題上的反覆無常「損害了人們對美元的信心」。

4月初，特朗普的關稅政策引發市場動盪，美國股市、債市和美元同時下跌，令投資人感到恐慌。 Sai 說: 「這是非常奇怪。這在美國通常不會發生」; 「對我們來說，這表明喪失信心」。

荷蘭國際集團（ING）外匯策略師 Francesco Pesole 表示，美元作為強勢貨幣和投資者在市場緊張時期尋求避風港的地位正在受到削弱。

Pesole說: 「這並不意味著美元將失去其王冠，也不意味著它將被完全取代。美元仍然是全球大多數交易中的第一大貨幣，而且仍然是流動性最強的貨幣」; 「然而，現在市場有理由認為，美元的主導地位正開始以比近年來更快的速度下滑」。

美國銀行6月對全球基金經理人進行的一項調查顯示，美元兌其他貨幣價值降至2005年以來的最低水平。

 

美元下跌，歐元上漲

同時，歐洲的投資機會也更具吸引力。 Focus Partners Wealth首席投資策略師 Jason Blackwell 表示，隨著美元下跌、歐元走強，分散投資及投資海外資產是極具吸引力的機會。

在美元走弱的環境下，國際股票可以提供更佳的回報。 他說: 「我們可以望向我們持有的非美國股票為例，看看今年迄今為止這種分散投資的效益如何」。

歐元兌美元今年上漲了11.5%，創下四年多來的最高水準。

Blackwell 表示，國際共同基金和ETF是分散投資組合的絕佳機會。他認為，美元下跌與其說是對美國的指控，不如說是對全球其他國家來說是一個「正面的展望」。

              So, the US dollar is having its worst year in decades. The US dollar index is down nearly 10% this year. The dollar’s decline probably reflects a crisis of confidence in the United States, and it seems that international mutual funds and ETFs are great opportunities to diversify portfolios.

Note:

1. Exposure to the U.S. dollar (對美元的風險敞口)can be understood in a few ways. One is through direct investment in the U.S. dollar itself, such as through an ETF that tracks its value against another currency, like the Canadian dollar. Another is through the U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar's value against a basket of foreign currencies. Finally, exposure can occur through investments in securities that hold multiple currencies. Understanding the type of exposure is crucial for managing financial risk and making informed investment decisions. (Sider)

特朗普的關稅本應會提振美元。那麼，美元為何跌至三年來的最低水準？ (1/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Trump’s tariffs were supposed to strengthen the dollar. So why is it the weakest it’s been in three years? (1/2)

John Towfighi, CNN

Wed, June 25, 2025 at 6:34 a.m. PDT·5 min read

The US dollar is having its worst year in decades. While stocks have recovered from their April lows and demand for bonds has been relatively steady, the dollar has continued a precipitous decline.

The US dollar index, which measures the dollar’s strength against six major foreign currencies, is down nearly 10% this year and on Wednesday hovered around its lowest level since 2022.

Wall Street had expected the dollar to strengthen under President Donald Trump’s second term. His policies of tax cuts were expected to spur economic growth and tariffs were expected to reduce demand for foreign imports, boosting the greenback’s value.

Yet the dollar had broadly weakened this year as Trump’s tariffs — and his back-and-forth decisions on implementing them, pausing them, raising them and lowering them — have injected uncertainty into markets and clouded the outlook for the US economy.

While tariffs can technically boost the dollar, they also have created an uncertainty about US policy that has “dominated” markets this year, driving the dollar lower, Barry Eichengreen, professor of economics and political science at UC Berkeley, told CNN.

“Investors don’t like uncertainty,” Eichengreen said, noting the negative impact on the dollar. While uncertainty around the US economy has increased, the European economy — though facing its own headwinds from tariffs — has emerged as relatively more stable.

“The consensus out there is that US growth is slowing owing to uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs and other things,” Eichengreen said. “The weakness of the dollar may also reflect new doubts about the currency’s safe haven status.”

Lingering concerns

A weaker dollar could support American exporters by making their goods relatively more affordable in the global market. It could also improve revenues for businesses with overseas operations and make visiting the United States relatively more affordable for international tourists.

However, the dollar is weakening at a time when there are heightened concerns about how the White House’s “erratic” policies and the massive US debt load might impact demand for US assets, Eichengreen said.

Republican lawmakers hope to deliver Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” to his desk by July 4. There have already been concerns about foreign investors demanding higher yields to hold US debt due to concerns about the deficit.

Foreign investors buying US debt want a strong dollar to get the most bang for their buck when converting their holdings into their own currency. As the dollar weakens, it eats into foreign investors’ return on their investments.

If there is waning demand for the dollar, Treasury yields could rise, increasing the cost of borrowing for both the US government and consumers.

(to be continued)

Translation

特朗普的關稅本應會提振美元。那麼，美元為何跌至三年來的最低水準？ (1/2)

美元正經歷數十年來最糟糕的一年。儘管股市已從4月的低點回升，債券需求也相對穩定，但美元卻持續大幅下跌。

衡量美元兌六種主要外幣強弱的美元指數今年已下跌近10%，週三徘徊在2022年以來的最低水準附近。

華爾街曾預計，在特朗普總統的第二任期內，美元將走強。他的減稅政策預計將刺激經濟成長，而關稅預計將減少對外國進口商品的需求，從而推高美元價值。

然而，由於特朗普的關稅政策 - 以及他在實施、暫停、提高和降低關稅方面的反覆決策 - 給市場注入了不確定性，並給美國經濟前景蒙上了陰影，美元今年已普遍走弱。

加州大學柏克萊分校經濟學和政治學教授 Barry Eichengreen 告訴 CNN，雖然關稅在技術上可以提振美元，但也造成了對美國政策的不確定性，這種不確定性在今年「主導」了市場，導緻美元走低。

Eichengreen說道: 「投資人不喜歡不確定性」，並指出了不確定性對美元的負面影響。儘管美國經濟的不確定性增加，但歐洲經濟 - 儘管也面臨關稅帶來的阻力 - 卻相對穩定。

Eichengreen說: 「外界普遍認為，由於特朗普關稅和其他因素的不確定性，美國經濟成長正在放緩」; 「美元的疲軟可能也反映出人們對其避險地位的新疑慮」。

揮之不去的擔憂

美元走弱可能會支撐美國出口商，使其產品在全球市場上相對更實惠。美元走弱還可以提高海外業務企業的收入，並使國際遊客赴美旅遊的費用相對更實惠。

然而，Eichengreen表示，美元走弱正值人們日益擔憂白宮「反覆無常」的政策和美國巨額債務負擔可能影響對美國資產之需求。

共和黨議員希望在7月4日前將特朗普提出的「一項大而美法案」提交給他。由於對赤字的顧慮，已經引發了担心外國投資者會要求持有美國債券可獲得更高的收益率。

購買美國債券的外國投資者希望美元走強，以便在將其持有的債券兌換成本國貨幣時獲得最大收益。隨著美元走弱，它會侵蝕外國投資者的投資回報。

如果對美元的需求減弱，美國公債殖利率可能會上升，從而增加美國政府和消費者的借貸成本。

（待續）

Asking generative AI could come with hidden environmental costs

 Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

生成ＡＩへの質問、隠れた環境コストがかかる可能性も

2025.06.24 Tue posted at 19:34 JST

  （ＣＮＮ） 仕事のメールに返信したり、結婚の誓いを作成したりと、生成ＡＩ（人工知能）は多くの人々の生活において頼りになる副操縦士だ。だが、ＡＩが問題を解決するたびに隠れた環境コストが積み重なっていることを示す研究結果が増えている。

ＡＩに出す指示（プロンプト）は「トークンＩＤ」と呼ばれる数字の集まりに分解され、石炭火力発電所や天然ガス発電所によって稼働する巨大なデータセンター（フットボールの競技場より大きなものもある）に送られる。そこでは、多数の大型コンピューターが何十回もの高速計算を行い、答えを作り出す。

引用されることの多い米電力研究所（ＥＰＲＩ）の推計によれば、そうしたプロセス全体を完了するには通常のグーグル検索よりも最大１０倍のエネルギーが必要になる可能性がある。

それでは、ＡＩに与える質問の一つひとつはどれほどの損害をもたらすのだろうか。これを調べるためドイツの研究者は、１４の大規模言語モデル（ＬＬＭ）を使ったＡＩシステムに対して、自由回答式と多肢選択式の質問の両方で試験を行った。その結果、複雑な質問は、簡潔な回答の質問と比較して最大６倍の二酸化炭素（ＣＯ２）の排出につながった。

さらに、より推論能力の高い「より賢い」なＬＬＭは同じ質問に答える際、より単純なシステムよりも最大５０倍多くの二酸化炭素を排出したという。

「フロンティアズ・イン・コミュニケーション」に掲載された論文の主筆者で、ミュンヘン応用科学大学の博士課程の学生、マキシミリアン・ダウナー氏は「これは、エネルギー消費とモデル性能の精度の間にトレードオフ（一方を立てれば他方が立たなくなる）関係があることを示している」と述べた。

通常は、こうしたより賢いエネルギー集約的なＬＬＭは、より小規模で簡潔なモデルよりも、トークンＩＤの処理に使われる「パラメーター」が数百億個多くなる。

「脳内の神経回路網のようなものだと考えてほしい。神経の接続が多いほど、質問に答えるための思考能力が高まる」（ダウナー氏）

 

二酸化炭素排出を減らすには

ダウナー氏によれば、複雑な質問には、多くのＡＩモデルが長文での説明を提供するよう訓練されていることもあり、より多くのエネルギーが必要となるという。ＡＩのチャットボットに代数の問題を解いてもらうと、答えを見つけるまでの手順を逐一説明してくれるかもしれない。

「ＡＩは特にユーザーが『お願いします』や『ありがとう』と丁寧に話す場合、丁寧な対応に多くのエネルギーを費やす。しかし、これは返答をさらに長くし、それぞれの単語を生成するのにさらに多くのエネルギーを消費する」（ダウナー氏）

こうしたことから、ダウナー氏は、ユーザーがＡＩとコミュニケーションを取る際には、より率直であることをユーザーに勧めている。希望する回答の長さを１～２文におさえるか、説明は全く不要だと伝えるのがいいという。

ＡＩ企業「ハギング・フェイス」のサーシャ・ルッチオーニ氏は、最も重要なのはダウナー氏の研究が、すべてのＡＩモデルが同じように作られているわけではないことを強調している点だと述べた。二酸化炭素の排出量を削減したいと考えているユーザーは、どのタスクにどのモデルを選択するのかをより慎重に検討するといい。

複雑なコーディングの問題を日々解いているソフトウェア技師なら、コーディングに適したＡＩが必須かもしれない。しかし、宿題を手伝ってほしいと思う普通の高校生にとって、強力なＡＩに頼るのは原子力発電で稼働するデジタル電卓を使うようなものだ。

ダウナー氏は、同じＡＩ企業でも提供されるモデルによって推論能力が異なる場合があるので、自身の必要性に最適なものを調べるべきだと指摘した。

ルッチオーニ氏は、可能であれば、簡単なタスクを実行する際には、インターネットの百科事典や携帯電話の電卓といった基本的な情報源を活用することを勧めている。

Translation

Asking generative AI could come with hidden environmental costs

 (CNN) Whether it's answering work emails or writing wedding vows, generative AI was the trusty co-pilot in many people's lives. But a growing body of research showed that every time when AI solved a problem, hidden environmental costs piled up.

Our instructions (prompts) gave to AI were broken down into a string of numbers called "token IDs" and sent to gigantic data centers (some bigger than a football field) powered by coal-fired or natural gas plants. There, dozens of big computers run dozens of rapid calculations to produce the answer.

According to a commonly cited estimate from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), completing that whole process might need up to 10 times more energy than a typical Google search.

So, how much damage could each question asked of AI would be caused? To find out, German researchers tested the AI systems that used 14 large language models (LLMs) with both open-ended and multiple-choice questions. They found that complex questions led to up to six times more carbon dioxide （ＣＯ２）emissions than questions with short answers.

What's more, "smarter" LLMs with better reasoning abilities emitted up to 50 times more carbon dioxide than simpler systems when answering the same question.

Maximilian Downer, a doctoral student at Munich University of Applied Sciences and leading author of a paper published in Frontiers in Communication said "This shows that there is a trade-off (if you pick one, you cannot pick the other) between energy consumption and the accuracy of the model performance."

Typically, those smarter, more energy-intensive LLMs had tens of billions more "parameters" to process token IDs than smaller, simpler models.

"Think of it like a neural network in your brain. The more neural connections you have, the more thinking power you have to answer a question," (Downer said)

 

How to reduce carbon dioxide emissions

Downer said complex questions required more energy, in part because many AI models were trained to provide lengthy explanations. When an AI chatbot was asked to solve an algebra problem, it might walk you through the steps it took to find the answer.

"AI spends a lot of energy being polite, especially when users say 'please' and 'thank you.'  Moreover, this made the reply even longer and consumed more energy to generate each word." (Downer said)

For this reason, Downer encouraged users to be more forthright when communicating with AI, to say limiting the length of the desired answer to one or two sentences, or to say you didn't need any explanations on that at all.

Sasha Luccioni of AI company Hugging Face said that most importantly, Downer's research had highlighted that not all AI models were created equal. Users who wanted to reduce their carbon footprint should be more thoughtful about which model they would choose for which type of task.

If you're a software engineer engaged in solving complex coding problems every day, an AI that's good at coding might be essential. But for an average high school student looking for help with their homework, to rely on a powerful AI would be like using a digital calculator powered by nuclear energy.

Downer noted that models offered by the same AI company might have different inference capabilities, so you should research on which one could best suit your needs.

Luccioni recommended that when performing simple tasks, to use basic information sources, such as an online encyclopedia or a calculator on your phone whenever possible.

              So, AI requires more energy to deal with complex questions. It is also noted that not all AI models are created equal. Users who want to reduce their carbon footprint should be more thoughtful about which model they should choose with regard to the type of task on hand in order to save energy.

Note:

1. A large language model (LLM) is a language model trained with self-supervised machine learning on a vast amount of text, designed for natural language processing tasks, especially language generation. The largest and most capable LLMs are generative pretrained transformers (GPTs), which are largely used in generative chatbots such as ChatGPT, Gemini or Claude. LLMs can be fine-tuned for specific tasks or guided by prompt engineering. These models acquire predictive power regarding syntax, semantics, and ontologies inherent in human language corpora, but they also inherit inaccuracies and biases present in the data they are trained in. (Wikipedia)

以色列如何利用間諜、走私無人機和人工智能震懾並牽制伊朗（2/2）

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

How Israel used spies, smuggled drones and AI to stun and hobble Iran (2/2)

The Associated Press - Julia Frankel and Sam Mednick

Tue, June 17, 2025 at 5:48 a.m. PDT·6 min read

(continue)

Using AI and human intelligence to select targets

To analyze information gathered from various sources, Israel used the latest artificial-intelligence, or AI, technology, said an intelligence officer involved with selecting individuals and sites to target. He said AI was used to help Israelis quickly sift through troves of data they had obtained. That effort began last October according to the officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media; it was one month before Netanyahu said he had ordered the attack plans.

An investigation by The Associated Press earlier this year uncovered that the Israeli military uses U.S.-made AI models in war to sift through intelligence and intercept communications to learn the movements of its enemies. It's been used in the wars with Hamas in Gaza and with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The intelligence officer involved in identifying the possible targets said options were first put into various groups, such as leadership, military, civilian and infrastructure. Targets were chosen if they were determined to be a threat to Israel, such as being deeply associated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard — a paramilitary force that controls Iran’s ballistic missiles.

The officer was tasked with putting together a list of Iranian generals, including details on where they worked and spent their free time.

Among the high-level military officials killed since Friday's attack were Gen. Hossein Salami, the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, and Gen. Mohammed Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran's armed forces.

In addition to AI, the Mossad relied on spies to identify top nuclear scientists and members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, according to one security official. At least eight members of the Guard, including the head of its missile program, were killed in a single Israeli strike on an underground bunker.

Targeting Iranian vehicles

Another facet of the attack was to strike Iranian vehicles used to transport and launch missiles.

Shine said the strategy was similar to a Ukrainian operation earlier this month in Russia. In that operation, nearly a third of Moscow’s strategic bomber fleet was destroyed or damaged with cheaply made drones snuck into Russian territory, according to Ukrainian officials.

In an interview with Iranian state-run television, the country's police chief, Gen. Ahmadreza Radan, said “several vehicles carrying mini-drones and some tactical drones have been discovered.” He added: “a number of traitors are trying to engage the country’s air defense by flying some mini-drones.”

 How far back does this go?

The Mossad is believed to have carried out numerous covert attacks on the Iranian nuclear program over the years, including cyberattacks and the killing of Iranian nuclear scientists. But it rarely acknowledges such operations.

In the 2000s, Iranian centrifuges used for enriching uranium were destroyed by the so-called Stuxnet computer virus, believed to be an Israeli and American creation.

In 2018, Israel stole an archive of Iranian nuclear research that included tens of thousands of pages of records, said Yossi Kuperwasser, a retired general and former military intelligence researcher who now directs the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

In July 2024, Israel killed a senior leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, with a bomb in a bedroom of a government guesthouse in Tehran.

Israel's blistering attack last week on the heart of Iran’s nuclear and military structure didn’t come out of nowhere, said retired Israeli Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi, who heads the Israel Defense and Security Forum think tank.

It was the result of “Israeli intelligence working extensively for years in Iran and establishing a very strong robust presence,” he said.

Translation

以色列如何利用間諜、走私無人機和人工智能震懾並牽制伊朗（2/2）

（繼續）

利用人工智能和人類智慧選擇目標

一位參與選擇目標人物和地點的情報官員表示，為了分析從各種來源收集的信息，以色列使用了最新的人工智能（AI）技術。他表示，人工智能被用來幫助以色列人快速篩選他們所獲得的大量數據。據這位官員透露，這項工作始於去年10月。由於未獲授權接受媒體採訪，這位官員不願透露姓名，這是內塔尼亞胡宣布下令實施攻擊計劃之前一個月。

美聯社今年稍早的一項調查發現，以色列軍方在戰爭中使用美國製造的人工智能模型來篩選情報並攔截通信，以了解敵人的動向。它曾在與加薩走廊的哈馬斯以及黎巴嫩真主黨的戰爭中被使用過。

參與確定潛在目標的情報官員表示，目標首先被分為不同類別，例如領導層、軍隊、平民和基礎設施。如果目標被確定為對以色列構成威脅，例如與伊朗革命衛隊（一支控制伊朗彈道飛彈的準軍事部隊）關係密切，就會被選中。

該官員的任務是整理一份伊朗將軍名單，包括他們工作地點和空閒時間的詳細資料。

自周五襲擊事件以來，遇難的高級軍官包括伊朗革命衛隊負責人 Hossein Salami 將軍和伊朗武裝部隊總參謀長 Mohammed Bagheri 將軍。

據一位安全官員稱，除了人工智能之外，摩薩德還依靠間諜來識別伊朗革命衛隊的高級核科學家和成員。以色列對一座地下掩體的攻擊中，至少有八名伊朗革命衛隊成員喪生，其中包括其飛彈計劃的負責人。

 

瞄準伊朗車輛

這次攻擊的另一個目的是打擊用於運輸和發射飛彈的伊朗車輛。

Shine 表示，這項策略與本月稍早烏克蘭在俄羅斯的行動類似。據烏克蘭官員稱，在那次行動中，莫斯科近三分之一的戰略轟炸機機隊被偷偷運入俄羅斯領土的廉價無人機摧毀或損壞。

在接受伊朗國家電視台採訪時，伊朗警察局長 Ahmadreza Radan 將軍表示： “已發現數輛載有微型無人機和一些戰術無人機的車輛” 。他還補充道： “一些叛徒正試圖通過驅動一些微型無人機來打擊該國的防空系統。”

這行動要追溯到什麼時候？

一般相信摩薩德多年來對伊朗核計畫發動了多次秘密攻擊，包括網路攻擊和殺害伊朗核科學家。但該組織很少承認此類行動。

進入21世紀，伊朗用於濃縮鈾的離心機被所謂的「震網」（Stuxnet）電腦病毒摧毀，據信該病毒是由以色列和美國共同開發的。

退休將軍、前軍事情報研究員、現任耶路撒冷戰略與安全研究所所長的 Yossi Kuperwasser 表示，2018年，以色列竊取了一份包含數萬頁記錄的伊朗核子研究檔案。

2024年7月，以色列在德黑蘭一家政府賓館的臥室裡用炸彈炸死了哈馬斯高級領導人 Ismail Haniye。

以色列退休準將現在是以色列國防與安全論壇智庫的負責人 Amir Avivi 將軍表示, 以色列上週對伊朗核和軍事核心結構發動的猛烈攻擊並非憑空而來。

這是「以色列情報部門多年來在伊朗廣泛開展工作並建立起堅實的立足點」的結果。

So, Israel shocked Iran when it pulled off an intelligence and military operation years in the making that struck high-level targets with precision. Guided by spies and artificial intelligence, the Israeli military unleashed a nighttime fusillade of warplanes and armed drones smuggled into Iran to quickly incapacitate many of its air defenses and missile systems. With greater freedom to fly over Iran, Israel bombarded key nuclear sites and killed top generals and scientists. By the time Iran mustered a response hours later, its ability to retaliate was greatly diminished. Apparent, Israel’s intelligent network is working very effectively.