美國計劃繁殖數百萬隻蒼蠅，並將其從飛機上投放。原因如下 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

The US has a plan to breed millions of flies and drop them from planes. Here’s why (2/2)

Kameryn Griesser, CNN

Thu, July 10, 2025 at 3:27 a.m. PDT·7 min read

(continue)

Fighting flies with flies: How it works

Just like a caterpillar goes into a cocoon before becoming a butterfly, the New World screwworm becomes a black, pill-sized pupa before emerging as an adult fly, Kaufman explained.

In a sterile fly production facility, the pupae are subjected to high-energy gamma rays that break down the DNA of the males, damaging their sex chromosomes, according to the USDA. The result: impotent adult flies that cause female mates to lay unfertilized eggs.

The amount of radiation the male flies are exposed to does not pose a danger to animals or humans, according to the USDA. But since the female flies only mate one time in their short, 20-day lifespan, once populations are exposed to sterile males, the populations die out over the course of months or years, depending on the size of the outbreak.

While it is unclear how dispersal would work in the US in the event of an outbreak, Kaufman said the adult flies are typically loaded into temperature-controlled containers and dropped from planes. However, there’s no need to panic about the fly drops coming to a suburb near you, he said — they usually target sparsely populated rural areas, since the flies have no interest in urban environments.

A pricey battle

At the COPEG facility, about 100 million sterilized flies are produced and dispersed aerially in affected regions each week.

Currently, the dispersal efforts have been focused in the southern regions of Mexico and throughout Central America, where cases of infestation have been reported, according to COPEG’s website.

The new US dispersal facility is expected to be located at the Moore Air Base in Hidalgo County, Texas, and to cost $8.5 million, per the release. The location and price tag of the production facility, or the “fly factory” itself, has not been revealed, but lawmakers estimate it could cost around $300 million.

In addition to the new sterile fly facilities, the USDA also announced $21 million plans to renovate an old fly factory in Mexico by late 2025.

While the plans are expensive, it’s a price worth paying to save the multibillion-dollar livestock industry, Diebel said.

‘When you offset the $300 million to the $10 billion of economic impact these flies would have, it’s an easy trade-off to understand,” Diebel said. “Having (a domestic production facility) here is super important … to control the distribution of those sterile flies more efficiently.”

Shortly after the June 18 announcement, the USDA shared plans to begin reopening livestock trading ports in Arizona, Texas and New Mexico that closed last year, citing “good progress” in surveillance and sterile fly dispersal efforts throughout Mexico.

COPEG did not immediately respond to request for comment on further details about the current progress of the US dispersal initiatives.

Translation

美國計劃繁殖數百萬隻蒼蠅，然後從飛機上投放。原因如下 (2/2)

（繼續）

以蠅治蠅：工作原理

Kaufman 解釋說，就像毛毛蟲在變成蝴蝶之前會先結繭一樣，新大陸螺旋蠅會先變成一個藥丸大小的黑色蛹，然後成熟為成年蒼蠅。

據美國農業部稱，在生產絕育蒼蠅設施中，蛹會受到高能量伽馬射線的照射，這種射線會破壞雄蠅的DNA，損傷其性染色體。結果是：成年蒼蠅喪失性能力，導致雌蠅產下未受精的卵子。

據美國農業部稱，雄蠅所受的輻射劑量不會對動物或人類構成危險。但由於雌蠅在其短短20天的生命週期中僅交配一次，一旦族群接觸到不孕雄蠅，族群就會在數月或數年內逐漸消亡，具體時間取決於疫情規模。

雖然目前尚不清楚美國在疫情爆發時將如何進行散播，但 Kaufman 表示，成年蠅通常會被裝入溫控容器中，然後從飛機上空投。不過，他表示，無需擔心這些散播蒼蠅會飛到你附近的城市以外的住宅區 - 它們通常以人口稀少的農村地區為目標，因為這些蒼蠅對城市環境不感興趣。

 

一場代價高昂的戰鬥

在 COPEG 的設施中，每週約有1億隻不孕蠅被生產並透過空中散播到受影響的地區。

目前，根據 COPEG 網站的訊息，散播工作主要集中在墨西哥南部地區和整個中美洲地區，這些地區已報告了感染病例。

據新聞稿稱，新的美國蒼蠅散播設施預計將位於德克薩斯州伊達爾戈縣的摩爾空軍基地，耗資850萬美元。生產設施, 或稱為「蒼蠅工廠」本身的地點和造價尚未公佈，但立法者估計其成本可能約為3億美元。

除了新的蒼蠅不育設施外，美國農業部還宣布了一項耗資2,100萬美元的計劃，將在2025年底前翻新墨西哥的一家舊蒼蠅工廠。

Diebel表示，雖然這些計劃耗資巨大，但為了拯救價值數十億美元的畜牧業，這筆代價是值得的。

Diebel說: 「如果用3億美元去抵消這些蒼蠅可能造成100億美元損失的經濟影響來看，那麼其中的利弊就很容易理解了」; 「在這裡建立（國內生產設施）至關重要……這樣才能更有效地控制這些不育蠅的散播」。

6月18日公告發布後不久，美國農業部宣布計劃重新開放亞利桑那州、德克薩斯州和新墨西哥州去年關閉的牲畜貿易點，並稱墨西哥全境的監測和不育蠅散播工作取得了「良好進展」。

COPEG尚未立即回應就美國散播計劃當前進展的更多細節置評的請求。

              So, an outbreak of New World screwworms has been spreading across Central America since early 2023 and hundreds of millions of flies dropping from planes in the sky could be the livestock industry’s best defense against a flesh-eating threat poised to invade the southwestern border of the United States. Apparently, flies dropping is an environmental-friendly way to deal with natural disasters comparing to using chemicals such as pesticides.

美國計劃繁殖數百萬隻蒼蠅，並將其從飛機上投放。原因如下 (1/2)

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

The US has a plan to breed millions of flies and drop them from planes. Here’s why (1/2)

Kameryn Griesser, CNN

Thu, July 10, 2025 at 3:27 a.m. PDT·7 min read

Hundreds of millions of flies dropping from planes in the sky might sound like a horrible nightmare, but experts say such a swarm could be the livestock industry’s best defense against a flesh-eating threat poised to invade the southwestern border of the United States.

An outbreak of New World screwworms — the larval form of a type of fly that’s known to nest in the wounds of warm-blooded animals and slowly eat them alive — has been spreading across Central America since early 2023, with infestations recorded in Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and El Salvador. Most Central American countries hadn’t seen an outbreak in 20 years.

The fly reached southern Mexico in November, sparking concern among US agricultural industry officials and triggering the closure of several border-area cattle, horse and bison trading ports.

It wouldn’t be the first time the US has had to battle these invasive bugs. The nation mostly eradicated the New World screwworm populations in the 1960s and 1970s by breeding sterilized males of the species and dispersing them from planes to mate with wild, female flies.

The strategy — essentially fighting flies with flies — slowly degraded the insects’ populations by preventing them from laying more eggs. Now, as the insects continue to spread north officials are hoping the approach could work again.

However, today only one facility in Panama breeds sterilized New World screwworms for dispersal, and hundreds of millions more sterile flies are needed to slow the outbreak, according to a June 17 letter from 80 US lawmakers.

The next day, the US Department of Agriculture announced plans to open a “fly factory” in a yet to be determined town near the Texas-Mexico border. But the process of defeating the screwworm may not be quick — or inexpensive.

Screwworm dangers

New World screwworms are the parasitic larva of a metallic blue blow fly species called Cochliomyia hominivorax. Unlike all other blow flies native to the Western Hemisphere, the New World screwworm feeds on the flesh of living animals, rather than dead ones, said Dr. Phillip Kaufman, a professor and head of the department of entomology at Texas A&M University.

The flesh-eating maggots go for most warm-blooded animals, including horses and cows.

They have also been known to infect domestic pets and even humans in rare cases, Kaufman said.

“After mating, the female fly finds a living host, lands on its wound, and will lay up to 200 to 300 eggs,” Kaufman explained. “After 12 to 24 hours, those eggs all hatch, and they immediately start burrowing and feeding on the tissue of that animal, causing very, very large wounds to form.”

After the larvae feed on the tissue with their sharp mouth hooks for several days, they drop from the animal and burrow into the ground to emerge later as fully grown adult flies, according to Thomas Lansford, the deputy executive director and assistant state veterinarian for the Texas Animal Health Commission.

Since the outbreak began in 2023, there have been more than 35,000 New World screwworm infestations reported, according to statistics listed on the Panama–United States Commission for the Eradication and Prevention of Screwworm Infestation in Livestock (COPEG) website. Of those cases, cows make up about 83% of the affected animal species.

Treatment for infested cattle often involves cleaning, antiseptic treatment and coverings for the wounds, Lansford said.

If left untreated, the flies can kill an animal in a matter of one to two weeks and spread to others, posing a threat to the livelihood of ranchers.

“It’s a daily chore to provide those inspections to our livestock, just to make sure they’re not infested,” said Stephen Diebel, a rancher and the first vice president of the Texas & Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association. “We know the incredible economic impact an infestation would cause.”

There are no known vaccinations or effective repellant methods to prevent infestation, Diebel said. Instead, during warmer months, ranchers should avoid branding, tagging and other procedures that create potential entry points for the screwworms in livestock, he recommended. The tropical fly is less active in the winter.

While regional cattle trading is thought to be a major way the fly populations travel, Diebel said infestations can also affect wildlife such as deer, birds and rodents, making surveillance of the parasite’s spread even more challenging.

(to be continued)

Translation

美國計劃繁殖數百萬隻蒼蠅，並將其從飛機上投放。原因如下 (1/2)

數億隻蒼蠅從空中飛機上落下，聽起來像是一場可怕的噩夢，但專家表示，如此大規模的蒼蠅群或許是畜牧業抵禦即將入侵美國西南邊境的食肉動物威脅的最佳防御手段。

自2023年初以來，新大陸螺旋蠅疫情已在中美洲蔓延 - 蒼蠅的幼蟲會在溫血動物傷口中生長並慢慢將其食丢而聞名。疫情已在巴拿馬、哥斯達黎加、尼加拉瓜、洪都拉斯、危地馬拉、伯利茲和薩爾瓦多出現。大多數中美洲國家已有20年來從未爆發過疫情。

這種蠅類於11月抵達墨西哥南部，引發了美國農業官員的擔憂，並導致邊境地區多個牛、馬和野牛貿易口關閉。

這並非美國首次與這些入侵昆蟲奮戰。在1960年代和1970年代，美國透過繁殖該物種的絕育雄蠅，並將其從飛機上散播到野外，使其與野生雌蠅交配，從而基本上消滅了新大陸螺旋蠅群。

這種策略 - 本質上是以蠅治蠅 - 透過阻止昆蟲產卵，逐漸降低了昆蟲族群數量。如今，隨著昆蟲繼續向北蔓延，官員們希望這種方法能再次奏效。

然而，根據80名美國議員於6月17日致函稱，目前巴拿馬只有一家機構進行繁殖用於散播的絕育新大陸螺旋蠅，還需要數億隻絕育蠅來減緩疫情的爆發。

第二天，美國農業部宣布計劃在德克薩斯州和墨西哥邊境附近一個尚未確定的城鎮開設「蒼蠅工廠」。但消滅螺旋蠅的過程可能並非一蹴即就，或成本便宜。

 

螺旋蠅的危險

新大陸螺旋蠅 是一種名為Cochliomyia hominivorax的金屬藍色麗蠅的寄生幼蟲。德州農工大學昆蟲學系主任兼教授 Phillip Kaufman 博士說，與西半球所有其麗蠅不同，新大陸螺旋蠅 要進食活體動物的肉，而不是死體動物的肉。

這種肉食蛆會攻擊大多數溫血動物，包括馬和牛。

Kaufman說，已知到它們也會在極少數情況下感染家養寵物，甚至人類。

Kaufman解釋: 「交配後，雌蠅會找到活體宿主，落在宿主的傷口上，並產下多達200到300枚卵，」; 「12到24小時後，這些卵都會孵化，它們會立即開始鑽入宿主的組織中，造成非常大的傷口」。

根據德州動物衛生委員會副執行長兼助理州獸醫 Thomas Lansford 介紹，幼蟲用鋒利的嘴鉤啃食宿主的組織幾天后，會從宿主身上掉下來，鑽入地下，之後成長為成熟的蒼蠅。

根據巴拿馬-美國牲畜螺旋蠅感染根除和預防委員會 (COPEG) 網站上的統計數據，自2023年疫情爆發以來，已報告了超過35,000件新大陸螺旋蠅感染病例。在這些病例中，牛約佔受影響動物種類的83%。

Lansford表示，感染牛隻的治療通常包括清潔、消毒和包紮傷口。

如果不及時治療，這些蠅類會在一到兩週內殺死一頭牛，並傳播給其他牛，對牧場主人的生計構成威脅。

牧場主人、德克薩斯州和西南部養牛者協會第一副主席 Stephen Diebel 說: 「每天檢查牲畜，確保它們沒有感染，這是我們的日常工作」; 「我們知道感染會造成巨大的經濟損失」。

Diebel表示，目前還沒有已知的疫苗或有效的驅蟲方法可以預防感染。他建議，在溫暖的月份，牧場主應避免烙印、標記和其他可能為螺旋蠅創造潛在入口的措施。這種熱帶蠅類在冬季較不活躍。

雖然區域性牲畜貿易被認為是蒼蠅族群傳播的主要途徑，但 Diebel表示，蒼蠅的侵擾也會影響鹿、鳥類和囓齒動物等野生動物，這使得對寄生蟲傳播的監測更具挑戰性。

（待續）

Note:

1. Cochliomyia is a genus in the family Calliphoridae, known as blowflies (麗蠅 ), in the order Diptera. Cochliomyia is commonly referred to as the New World screwworm flies (新大陸螺旋蠅), as distinct from Old World screwworm flies. Four species are in this genus: C. macellaria, C. hominivorax, C. aldrichi, and C. minima. C. hominivorax is known as the primary screwworm because its larvae produce myiasis and feed on living tissue. This feeding causes deep, pocket-like lesions in the skin, which can be very damaging to the animal host. (Wikipedia)

貿易戰加劇，中國工廠出廠通縮創兩年來最嚴重

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

China's factory-gate deflation worst in 2 years as trade war bites

Reuters  - Reporting by Qiaoyi Li and Ryan Woo; Editing by Shri Navaratnam

Updated Tue, July 8, 2025 at 8:53 p.m. PDT·3 min read

BEIJING (Reuters) -China's producer deflation deepened to its worst level in almost two years in June as the economy grappled with uncertainty over a global trade war and subdued demand at home, piling pressure on policymakers to roll out more support measures.

While consumer prices rose for the first time in five months, the uptick was marginal as a prolonged housing market downturn in the world's second-biggest economy added to headwinds from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on trading partners.

The producer price index fell 3.6% in June from a year earlier, worse than a 3.3% decline in May and the largest drop since July 2023. That compared with forecast of a 3.2% slide in a Reuters poll.

Some export-oriented industries are under pressure in price terms, said Dong Lijuan, NBS statistician.

"The uncertainty in the global trade environment has affected the export expectations of enterprises," Dong said.

China's factory activity shrank for a third month in a row in June, albeit at a slower pace, with employment and new export orders still languishing.

"We expect demand to weaken later this year, as exports slow and the boost from fiscal support diminishes," said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.

Market reaction to the data was cautious as Trump ramps up his trade war. China's Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.3% by the midday break, while Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng traded down 0.7%.

As subdued domestic demand remains a drag on China's economy, companies have resorted to price discounts to boost sales, prompting the authorities to urge an end to the auto industry's bruising price wars.

Highlighting the tepid consumer market, Chinese e-commerce giants Alibaba and JD.com have pledged heavy subsidies over recent months to expand aggressively into fast deliveries.

A diverging trend in consumer prices likely indicates "the effects of the consumer goods trade-in scheme," Huang said, but added that "with this boost likely to fade soon, we expect underlying inflation to decline again later this year."

The consumer price index edged up 0.1% last month from a year earlier, reversing a 0.1% drop in May and above a Reuters poll prediction of an unchanged outcome.

The consumer price uptick was "mainly due to a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices," NBS's Dong said.

On a monthly basis, the CPI was down 0.1% versus a 0.2% decline in May, and in line with economist forecasts of a 0.1% drop.

Core inflation, excluding volatile food and fuel prices, spiked to 0.7% in June from a year earlier, the highest in 14 months.

Lynn Song, ING's chief economist for China, said the recent relative strength of the yuan and persistently soft inflation will give the People’s Bank of China room to cut rates further later in the year.

"With activity data softening slightly in recent months, but not signaling a sense of immediate urgency, we currently expect the next rate cut to come in the fourth quarter."

Translation

貿易戰加劇，中國工廠出廠通縮創兩年來最嚴重

北京（路透社）— 中國6月份生產者通貨緊縮進一步加劇至近兩年來最嚴重水平，原因是全球貿易戰帶來的不確定性以及國內需求低迷，給政策制定者帶來壓力去推出更多支持措施。

儘管消費者物價指數（CPI）五個月來首次上漲，但由於全球第二大經濟體房地產市場持續低迷，以及美國總統特朗普對貿易夥伴加徵關稅的不利因素，漲幅上升輕微。

6月份，中國生產者物價指數（PPI）年減3.6%，降幅差過的5月3.3%，創下2023年7月以來的最大降幅。路透社調查預測該指數將下降3.2%。

國家統計局 (NBS) 統計師 Dong Lijuan 表示，一些出口導向產業的價格面臨壓力。

Dong Lijuan說: 「全球貿易環境的不確定性影響了企業的出口預期」。

中國6月份製造業活動連續第三個月萎縮，儘管步伐放緩，就業和新出口訂單仍低迷。

Capital Economics的中國經濟學家 Zichun Huang表示： “我們預計今年晚些時候需求將會減弱，因為出口放緩，財政支持帶來的提振作用減弱。”

隨著特朗普加劇貿易戰，市場對這些數據的反應較為謹慎。截至午盤休市，中國上證綜合指數上漲0.3%，而香港恆生指數下跌0.7%。

由於國內需求低迷持續拖累中國經濟，企業紛紛採取降價促銷來提振銷量，促使當局敦促汽車業停止激烈的價格戰。

中國電商巨頭阿里巴巴和京東近幾個月承諾提供巨額補貼，以大力拓展快速配送業務，凸顯了消費市場的疲軟。

Huang表示，消費者價格走勢分化可能表明 “以舊換新政策” 的影響，但他補充說： “由於這種提振作用可能很快消退，我們預計今年晚些時候基本通脹將再次下降。”

上個月，中國消費者物價指數年增0.1%，扭轉了5月0.1%的下降趨勢，並高於路透社民調預測的持平趨勢。

國家統計局長Dong表示，消費者價格上漲「主要是由於工業消費品價格反彈」。

按月計算，CPI下降0.1%，相比5月份下降0.2%，與經濟學家預測的下降0.1%相符。

6月份，扣除波動較大的食品和燃料價格的核心通膨率年增至0.7%，為14個月以來的最高水平。

荷蘭國際集團(ING)中國區首席經濟學家 Lynn Song 表示，近期人民幣相對走強以及持續疲軟的通膨將為中國人民銀行在今年稍後進一步降息提供空間。

“鑑於近幾個月經濟活動數據略有疲軟，但並未顯示出立即降息的緊迫性，我們目前預計下一次降息將在第四季度。”

              So, China's producer deflation deepens to its worst level in almost two years in June as the economy is facing uncertainty over a global trade war and subdued demand at home, piling pressure on policymakers to roll out more support measures. Apparently, consumption in China is weak.

Note:

1. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) (Chinese: 国家统计局) is a deputy-ministerial level agency directly under the State Council of China. Established in August 1952, the bureau is responsible for collection, investigation, research and publication of statistics concerning the nation's economy, population and other aspects of the society.

歐盟公佈720億歐元清單，將對波音、美國汽車和波本威士忌徵收關稅

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

EU Targets Boeing, US Cars and Bourbon With €72 Billion List

Bloomberg - Jorge Valero, Lyubov Pronina and Alberto Nardelli

Tue, July 15, 2025 at 4:18 a.m. PDT·3 min read

(Bloomberg) -- The European Union has finalized a second list of countermeasures to target US goods worth €72 billion ($84 billion), including Boeing Co. aircraft, automobiles and bourbon if it decides to retaliate against Donald Trump’s tariff policy.

Trump on Monday said he is still open to more trade negotiations with the EU after announcing over the weekend a 30% levy on EU imports that will kick in on Aug. 1 if the two sides fail to agree on a better deal. EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic was planning to speak with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick late Monday as he pushes for a settlement that the EU insists must be mutually beneficial to both sides.

“We’re always open to talk,” the US president told reporters at the White House. “We are open to talk, including to Europe. In fact, they’re coming over. They’d like to talk.”

Over the weekend, Trump set out his plans for higher EU tariffs which Sefcovic called “effectively prohibitive” to transatlantic trade. EU trade ministers met in Brussels on Monday to discuss next steps.

The additional EU duties would also be slapped on US machinery products, chemicals and plastics, medical devices, electrical equipment, wines and other agricultural goods, according to a 206-page list prepared by the European Commission and seen by Bloomberg News.

The list, initially hitting American goods totaling €95 billion, was cut down after consultations with companies and member states. Countries must give their approval before the list’s adoption. The suite of measures pre-dates the weekend letter threatening to raise tariffs to 30% and represents the EU’s response to an earlier so-called reciprocal tariff of 20% hitting most goods as well as the additional levies on cars and car parts of 25%.

European Commission representatives did not immediately respond to a request for comment early Tuesday morning. The list, which was reported earlier by Politico, does not include a tariff rate for the goods.

Keep Talking

The preference among most EU officials is to keep negotiations on track, while maintaining the threat of retaliation.

“We have until the end of this month to conduct the talks. Over the weekend, I added my voice to calls for not applying reciprocal levies,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Tuesday at a news conference in Bavaria. “But the American government shouldn’t underestimate our willingness to react to an excessive tariff burden with similar measures.”

Benjamin Haddad, France’s minister for European affairs, said the response from Brussels should include the option of using the EU’s anti-coercion mechanism — which can be invoked to impose taxes on US tech giants. “In this negotiation, you need to show strength, you need to show force, unity and resolve,” Haddad told Bloomberg Television.

Over the weekend, the EU announced it was set to extend a suspension of tariffs on a first list of €21 billion of US products in response to additional steel and aluminum tariffs from Trump.

The EU’s new list of targeted US products includes more than €65 billion of industrial goods, including mostly aircraft (nearly €11 billion), machinery (more than €9.4 billion) and cars (nearly €8 billion). More than €6 billion of US goods hit are agri-food products, mostly fruits and vegetables (nearly €2 billion) and alcoholic drinks (€1.2 billion).

The broad package also includes precision equipment and instruments (nearly €5 billion), toys and hobby equipment (more than €500 million), sports guns (nearly €300 million) or musical instruments (around €200 million).

Some of the criteria to choose the goods were the availability of alternative sources of supply and products where the risk of relocation is high, according to the document. Imported military products will not be subject to the duties.

Translation

歐盟公佈720億歐元清單，將對波音、美國汽車和波本威士忌徵收關稅

(彭博社)- 歐盟已敲定第二份反制措施清單，如果決定對特朗普的關稅政策進行報復的話，將針對價值720億歐元（約合840億美元）的美國商品，其中包括波音公司的飛機、汽車和波本威士忌。

特朗普週一表示，他仍願意與歐盟進行更多貿易談判。先前，特朗普上週末宣布，如果雙方未能達成更有利的協議，將從8月1日起對歐盟進口產品徵收30%的關稅。歐盟貿易專員 Maros Sefcovic 計劃於週一晚些時候與美國商務部長盧特尼克會談，推動達成一項歐盟堅稱必須對雙方互利的協議。

美國總統在白宮對記者表示。 「我們總是願意進行對話」; 「我們願意對話，包括與歐洲的對話。事實上，他們正在過來。他們願意對話」。

上週末，特朗普宣布了提高歐盟關稅的計劃，Sefcovic 稱其對跨大西洋貿易「實際上是一種限制」。歐盟貿易部長週一在布魯塞爾舉行會議，討論下一步。

根據彭博新聞社看到的歐盟委員會編制的一份長達206頁的清單，歐盟也將對美國機械產品、化學品和塑膠、醫療器材、電氣設備、酒類和其他農產品徵收額外關稅。

這份清單最初涉及總額達950億歐元的美國商品，但在與企業和成員國磋商後有所縮減。該清單的通過必須獲得各國的批准。這一系列措施早於週末威脅將關稅提高至30%的美國信函，是歐盟對先前所謂的對等關稅, 即對大多數商品徵收20%的關稅, 以及對汽車和汽車零件徵收25%的附加稅的回應。

週二凌晨，歐盟委員會代表尚未立即回應置評請求。 Politico 先前報導的這份清單並未包含這些商品的關稅稅率。

繼續談判

大多數歐盟官員傾向於保持進行談判，同時保持報復威脅。

德國總理 Friedrich Merz 週二在巴伐利亞州的新聞發布會上表示: 「我們必須在本月底之前進行談判。上週末，我呼籲不實施對等關稅」; 「但美國政府不應低估我們採取類似措施應對過高關稅負擔的決心」。

法國歐洲事務部長 Benjamin Haddad 表示，布魯塞爾的回應應該包括使用歐盟反脅迫機制 - 即是對美國科技巨頭徵稅。Haddad 告訴彭博電視台： “在這場談判中，你需要展現實力，你需要展現力量、團結和決心。”

上週末，歐盟宣布將延長對首批價值210億歐元的美國產品暫停徵收關稅的期限，去回應特朗普對鋼鐵和鋁徵收的額外關稅。

歐盟新針對美國產品的清單涵蓋了價值超過650億歐元的工業產品，其中主要包括飛機（近110億歐元）、機械設備（超過94億歐元）和汽車（近80億歐元）。超過60億歐元的受制裁美國產品是農產品，主要包括水果和蔬菜（近20億歐元）和酒精飲料（12億歐元）。

這項廣泛的一攬子計劃還包括精密設備和儀器（近50億歐元）、玩具和業餘愛好設備（超過5億歐元）、運動用槍械（近3億歐元）或樂器（約2億歐元）。

文件稱，選擇這些商品的標準包括是否有替代供應源以及產品遷移有高風險。進口軍用產品不需繳關稅。

              So, the EU has finalized a second list of countermeasures to target US goods worth $84 billion, including Boeing Co. aircraft, automobiles and wines if it decides to retaliate against Donald Trump’s tariff policy. Apparently, the EU is telling the American that they shouldn’t underestimate EU’s willingness to react to an excessive tariff, and believes that EU needs to show strength, unity and resolve in dealing with the US.

Trump announces "big" trade deal with Japan, agreeing to 15% "reciprocal" tariffs

 Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

トランプ氏、日本との「大規模」貿易合意発表　「相互」関税１５％で合意

2025.07.23 Wed posted at 09:56 JST

（ＣＮＮ） トランプ米大統領は２２日夜、長く待ち望んだ日本との貿易合意を発表した。同盟国であり、主要な貿易相手国同士の枠組みが成立した形だが、数週間前の時点でその実現は難航していた。

「我々は日本との大規模な合意を締結した。おそらく史上最大の合意だ」と、トランプ氏は自身のＳＮＳトゥルース・ソーシャルで述べた。

この合意の一環として、米国の輸入業者は米国に輸出される日本製品に対し１５%の「相互関税」を支払うことになる。また、日本は米国に５５００億ドル（約８０兆円）を投資するともトランプ氏は説明した。

トランプ氏はさらに、米国は「利益の９０%を受け取る」と付け加えた。しかし、これらの投資の仕組みや利益の計算方法については明らかにしなかった。公式の契約条件書（タームシート）も公表されていない。

「この合意は数十万の雇用を創出するだろう。かつてない規模のものだ。おそらく最も重要なのは、日本が自動車やトラック、米、その他の農産物などを含む貿易に対して自国を開放することだ。日本は米国に対し１５%の相互関税を支払うことになる」と、トランプ氏は投稿した。

投稿後まもなく、トランプ氏は２２日夜、ホワイトハウスのイーストルームで日本との貿易合意について言及し、演説を行った。

共和党議員とのレセプションでトランプ氏は「今、史上最大の貿易合意に署名したところだ。おそらく日本との合意としては史上最大だろう」「日本のトップ層がここに来て、我々は長い間、懸命に取り組んできた。これは誰にとっても素晴らしい合意だ」と強調した。

日本は米国にとって第５位の輸入元。米商務省のデータによると、昨年、日本は１４８０億ドル相当の製品を米国に輸出した。米国が日本から購入した上位の品目は自動車、自動車部品、農業機械、建設機械など。

Translation

Trump announces "big" trade deal with Japan, agreeing to 15% "reciprocal" tariffs

(CNN) U.S. President Donald Trump announced the long-awaited trade agreement with Japan on the night of the 22nd. A framework was established between the allies and also major trading partners, yet as of a few weeks ago, its implementation was proving to be difficult.

Trump said on his social media account Truth Social, "We've signed a big deal with Japan, probably the biggest deal in history."

As part of the deal, U.S. importers would pay a 15% "reciprocal tariff" on Japanese products exported to the U.S. Also, Trump explained that Japan would invest $550 billion (Approximately 80 trillion yen) in the U.S.

Trump added that the U.S. would "receive 90% of the profits." However, he did not disclose how these investments might work or how the profits would be calculated. No official Terms and Conditions (term sheet) had been released.

Trump posted that "This deal will create hundreds of thousands of jobs. It's the biggest deal ever made. Perhaps most importantly, Japan will open itself up to trade, including cars, trucks, rice and other agricultural products. Japan will pay a reciprocal tariff of 15% to the United States".

Shortly after posting, Trump spoke in the East Room of the White House on the night of the 22nd, mentioning the trade agreement with Japan.

At a reception with Republican Congressman, Trump emphasized, "We just signed the biggest trade deal in history. Probably the biggest deal ever with Japan. The top people in Japan come here, and we've been working hard on it for a long time. This is a great deal for everyone."

Japan is the fifth largest import source for the United States. According to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Japan exported $148 billion worth of products to the United States last year. Top items purchased by the United States from Japan included automobiles, auto parts, agricultural machinery, and construction machinery etc.

 So, the U.S. has reached the long-awaited trade agreement with Japan. A framework is established between these two allies and also major trading partners. Basically, Japan will invest $550 billion in the U.S. and open up its market to the American that would include cars, trucks, rice and other agricultural products. Japan will pay a reciprocal tariff of 15% to the United States. I am wondering when will the EU and China reach similar trade agreements with the US.

Chinese kindergarten uses paint to color food, high levels of lead found in 233 children

 Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

食べ物の着色に塗料を使用、園児２３３人から高濃度の鉛検出　中国幼稚園

2025.07.09 Wed posted at 19:00 JST

香港（ＣＮＮ） 中国甘粛省天水市の私立幼稚園で、給食の着色に絵の具の顔料が使われた結果、園児２３３人の血液から基準を超える鉛が検出された。当局が８日に発表した。食品安全問題が絶えない中国で強い非難が巻き起こっている。

中国国営中央テレビ（ＣＣＴＶ）が伝えた市政府の報告書によれば、園長ら８人が有毒で有害な食品を製造した疑いで拘束された。報告書によれば、園長と出資者は、給食の職員に対し、食べ物に絵の具の顔料を使って着色することを認めており、これが汚染につながった。入園児を増やして収益を拡大するのが目的だったという。

園児２５１人のうち２３３人の血中鉛濃度が異常値なことが判明した。園児は治療を受けており、２０１人が入院している。当局は長期的な影響の医学的評価をまだ公表していない。

地元メディアは小児科教授の見方として、３カ月以上にわたる慢性的な鉛中毒の可能性を示唆した。

調査では、朝食用の蒸しケーキなど二つの食品から国家基準の２０００倍を超える濃度の鉛が検出された。塗料の入ったバケツは当局に押収された。バケツには食用ではないことを明示したラベルが貼られていたという。

当局は１日、血中鉛濃度が異常値を示しているとの報告を受けて調査を開始した。園児の鉛への暴露は脳の発達や行動、ＩＱに影響を及ぼすなど深刻な結果をもたらす可能性がある。

報告書には暴露がどのくらいの期間続いていたのかは明らかにされていないが、国名メディアの取材を受けた親の中には、何カ月も前から子どもたちの健康状態や行動に異常な兆候があったと語る人もいた。

食品をめぐるスキャンダルは過去にもあった。最も悪質な事例の一つは、２００８年に有害な工業用の化学物質メラニン混入した粉ミルクによって乳児６人が死亡したほか、約３０万人が健康被害を受けたもの。責任があるとされた製造業者幹部には死刑が言い渡された。この事件は中国における国産の食品の安全性に対して深い不信感を生んだ。

Translation

Chinese kindergarten uses paint to color food, high levels of lead found in 233 children

2025.07.09 Wed posted at 19:00 JST

Hong Kong (CNN) -  A private kindergarten in Tianshui city in Gansu Province of China used paint pigments to color school lunches that resulted in the detection of lead levels exceeding the standard in the blood of 233 children. Authorities announced this on the 8th. In China, where food safety issues were endless, strong criticism were swirling

According to a city government report carried by China Central Television (CCTV), the principal and eight others were arrested on suspicion of producing toxic and harmful food. According to the report, the principal and investor allowed the school lunch staff to use paint pigments to color food, which led to the contamination. The purpose was to increase enrollment and increase profits.

233 of the 251 children were found to have abnormal lead levels in blood. The children were receiving treatment, and 201 were hospitalized. Authorities had yet to release a medical evaluation of the long-term effects.

Local media cited a pediatrics professor as suggesting the possibility of chronic lead poisoning over three months.

An investigation found that two foods, including a steamed cake for breakfast, contained lead at levels 2,000 times higher than the national standard. The paint buckets were confiscated by authorities. The buckets were reportedly labeled as not edible.

Authorities began an investigation on the 1st after receiving a report that blood lead levels were abnormal. Exposure to lead in kindergarten children could have serious consequences, it affected brain development, behavior and IQ.

The report did not say how long the exposure lasted, but some parents interviewed by the national media said they had seen abnormal signs in their children's health and behavior for months.

There were food scandals before. In one of the most egregious cases, six babies died and about 300,000 others suffered from health problems in 2008 after milk powder was contaminated with the toxic industrial chemical melanin. The company executives found responsible were given the death penalty. The case had created deep distrust in China about the safety of domestically produced food.

So, a private kindergarten in China used painting material to color school lunches, resulting in the detection of lead levels exceeding the standard in the blood of 233 children. There was food scandals in China before. In 2008 six babies died and about 300,000 others suffered health problems after milk powder was contaminated with the toxic industrial chemical melanin. Apparently, there is room for improvement in ensuring food safety in China.

中國對歐盟說它無法接受俄羅斯輸掉對烏克蘭的戰爭 - 官員稱

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

China tells EU it can’t accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine, official says

Nick Paton Walsh, CNN Chief International Security Correspondent

Fri, July 4, 2025 at 9:38 a.m. PDT·3 min read

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the European Union’s top diplomat that Beijing can’t accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine as this could allow the United States to turn its full attention to China, an official briefed on the talks said, contradicting Beijing’s public position of neutrality in the conflict.

The admission came during what the official said was a four-hour meeting with EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas on Wednesday in Brussels that “featured tough but respectful exchanges, covering a broad range of issues from cyber security, rare earths to trade imbalances, Taiwan and Middle East.”

The official said Wang’s private remarks suggested Beijing might prefer a protracted war in Ukraine that keeps the United States from focusing on its rivalry with China. They echo concerns of critics of China’s policy that Beijing has geopolitically much more at stake in the Ukrainian conflict than its admitted position of neutrality.

On Friday, at a regular Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs briefing, spokeswoman Mao Ning was asked about the exchange, which was first reported in the South China Morning Post, and re-affirmed Beijing’s long-standing position on the three-year war.

“China is not a party to the Ukraine issue,” Mao said. “China’s position on the Ukraine crisis is objective and consistent, that is, negotiation, ceasefire and peace. A prolonged Ukraine crisis serves no one’s interests.”

She added that China wanted a political settlement as quickly as possible: “Together with the international community and in light of the will of the parties concerned, we will continue playing a constructive role towards this end.”

China’s public statements on the Ukraine war mask a more complex picture.

Just weeks before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Chinese leader Xi Jinping declared a “no limits” partnership with Moscow and since then political and economic ties have strengthened.

China has put itself forward as a possible peacemaker, but as CNN has previously reported the stakes are high for Beijing, not least potentially losing a major partner in Russia.

China has also rejected growing accusations it is providing near-military support to Russia. Ukraine has sanctioned several Chinese companies for providing Russia drone components and technology for use in missile production.

After a record assault on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv on Friday, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Andrii Sybiha, posted pictures he said were the fragments of a Geran 2 combat drone launched by Russia. One image displayed part of the drone’s alleged fuselage which said the device was made in China on June 20.

Sybiha added that night the “Chinese Consulate General’s building in Odesa suffered minor damage as a result of Russian strikes on the city. There is no better metaphor for how Putin continues to escalate his war and terror while involving others, including North Korean troops, Iranian weapons, and some Chinese manufacturers. Security in Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific is inextricably linked.”

This year also saw allegations that Chinese nationals have been fighting with Russia in Ukraine. Beijing denied any involvement and repeated previous calls for Chinese citizens to “refrain from participating in military actions of any party.”

Translation

中國對歐盟說它無法接受俄羅斯輸掉對烏克蘭的戰爭 - 官員稱

一位了解會談情況的官員表示，中國外交部長王毅告訴歐盟最高外交官，北京無法接受俄羅斯輸掉對烏克蘭的戰爭，因為這可能會讓美國將全部注意力轉向中國，這與北京在衝突中保持中立的公開立場相矛盾。

這位官員表示，王毅是在周三與歐盟外交事務負責人 Kaja Kallas 在布魯塞爾舉行的四小時會談中承認的。會談「內容是強硬但相互尊重的交流，涵蓋了從網路安全、稀土到貿易失衡、台灣和中東等一系列廣泛議題」。

這位官員表示，王毅的私人言論暗示，北京可能更傾向烏克蘭的持久戰，這樣美國就不會專注於與中國的競爭。他們的觀點呼應了批評中國政策人士的擔憂，他們認為，北京在烏克蘭衝突中的地緣政治利益遠大於其所承認的中立立場。

週五，在中國外交部例行記者會上，發言人毛寧被問及此次交流（該交流最早由《南華早報》報道）時，重申了北京對這場持續三年的戰爭的長期立場。

毛寧說: 「中國不是烏克蘭問題的當事人」; 「中國在烏克蘭危機問題上的立場是客觀和一貫的，即談判、停火、和平。烏克蘭危機長期化不符合任何人的利益」。

 她補充說，中國希望盡快實現政治解決： 「我們將繼續與國際社會一道，根據有關各方的意願，為此發揮建設性作用」。

中國關於烏克蘭戰爭的公開聲明掩蓋了更複雜的局面。

就在俄羅斯全面入侵烏克蘭的幾週前，中國領導人習近平宣布與莫斯科建立「無限制」夥伴關係，此後兩國政治和經濟關係不斷加強。

中國一直將自己定位為潛在的和平締造者，但正如美國有線電視新聞網（CNN）先前報導的那樣，北京方面的風險很高，尤其是可能失去俄羅斯這個重要的合作夥伴。

中國也否認了越來越多的指控，稱其向俄羅斯提供近乎軍事的支持。烏克蘭已對多家中國公司實施制裁，原因是這些公司向俄羅斯提供用於飛彈生產的無人機零件和技術。

在烏克蘭首都基輔週五遭受創紀錄的襲擊後，烏克蘭外交部長 Andrii Sybiha 發布了一些照片，他稱這些照片是俄羅斯發射的“Geran 2”型作戰無人機的碎片。一張圖片展示了據稱是該無人機機身的一部分，並稱該裝置於6月20日在中國製造。

Sybiha 當晚補充道: 「中國駐敖德薩總領事館大樓在俄羅斯對敖德薩的空襲中遭受了輕微損壞。沒有比這更好的比喻來形容普京如何不斷升級其戰爭和恐怖活動，同時又牽涉到朝鮮軍隊、伊朗武器以及一些中國製造商等其他勢力。歐洲、中東和印度-太平洋地區的安全是連在一起的」。

今年還有指控稱，中國公民在烏克蘭與俄羅斯交戰。北京否認有任何牽連，並重申先前有呼籲中國公民「不要參與任何一方的軍事行動」。

So, China had told the European Union’s top diplomat that Beijing could not accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine as this could allow the United States to turn its full attention to China. Apparently, China is not a neutral party to this conflict. 

分析顯示，特朗普的關稅將使美國雇主損失823億美元

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Analysis shows Trump's tariffs would cost US employers $82.3 billion

The Associated Press - Josh Boak

Wed, July 2, 2025 at 7:51 a.m. PDT 4 min read

WASHINGTON (AP) — An analysis finds that a critical group of U.S. employers would face a direct cost of $82.3 billion from President Donald Trump’s current tariff plans, a sum that could be potentially managed through price hikes, layoffs, hiring freezes or lower profit margins.

The analysis by the JPMorganChase Institute is among the first to measure the direct costs created by the import taxes on businesses with $10 million to $1 billion in annual revenue, a category that includes roughly a third of private-sector U.S. workers. These companies are more dependent than other businesses on imports from China, India and Thailand — and the retail and wholesale sectors would be especially vulnerable to the import taxes being levied by the Republican president.

The findings show clear trade-offs from Trump’s import taxes, contradicting his claims that foreign manufacturers would absorb the costs of the tariffs instead of U.S. companies that rely on imports. While the tariffs launched under Trump have yet to boost overall inflation, large companies such as Amazon, Costco, Walmart and Williams-Sonoma delayed the potential reckoning by building up their inventories before the taxes could be imposed.

The analysis comes just ahead of the July 9 deadline by Trump to formally set the tariff rates on goods from dozens of countries. Trump imposed that deadline after the financial markets panicked in response to his April tariff announcements, prompting him to instead schedule a 90-day negotiating period when most imports faced a 10% baseline tariff. China, Mexico and Canada face higher rates, and there are separate 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Had the initial April 2 tariffs stayed in place, the companies in the JPMorganChase Institute analysis would have faced additional direct costs of $187.6 billion. Under the current rates, the $82.3 billion would be equivalent on average to $2,080 per employee, or 3.1% of the average annual payroll. Those averages include firms that don't import goods and those that do.

Asked Tuesday how trade talks are faring, Trump said simply: “Everything’s going well.”

The president has indicated he will set tariff rates given the logistical challenge of negotiating with so many nations. As the 90-day period comes to a close, only the United Kingdom has signed a trade framework with the Trump administration. Trump announced Wednesday he has reached a deal with Vietnam, with details to follow. India has signaled it is close to agreeing on a trade framework.

There is a growing body of evidence suggesting that more inflation could surface. The investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a report that it expects companies to pass along 60% of their tariff costs onto consumers. The Atlanta Federal Reserve has used its survey of businesses’ inflation expectations to say that companies could on average pass along roughly half their costs from a 10% tariff or a 25% tariff without reducing consumer demand.

The JPMorganChase Institute findings suggest that the tariffs could cause some domestic manufacturers to strengthen their roles as suppliers of goods. But it noted that companies need to plan for a range of possible outcomes and that wholesalers and retailers already operate on such low profit margins that they might need to spread the tariffs costs to their customers.

The outlook for tariffs remains highly uncertain. Trump had stopped negotiations with Canada, only to restart them after the country dropped its plan to tax digital services. He similarly on Monday threatened more tariffs on Japan unless it buys more rice from the U.S.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a Tuesday interview that the concessions from the trade talks have impressed career officials at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and other agencies.

“People who have been at Treasury, at Commerce, at USTR for 20 years are saying that these are deals like they’ve never seen before,” Bessent said on Fox News Channel’s “Fox & Friends.”

The treasury secretary said the Trump administration plans to discuss the contours of trade deals next week, prioritizing the tax cuts package passed on Tuesday by the Republican majority in the Senate. Trump has set a Friday deadline for passage of the multitrillion-dollar package, the costs of which the president hopes to offset with tariff revenues.

Translation

分析顯示，特朗普的關稅將使美國雇主損失823億美元

華盛頓（美聯社）— 一項分析發現，特朗普總統目前的關稅計劃將使美國一個關鍵的雇主群體直接損失823億美元，這筆損失可以透過漲價、裁員、凍結招聘或降低利潤率來控制。

摩根大通研究所的這項分析是首批評估進口稅對年收入1,000萬至10億美元企業造成的直接成本的分析之一，這類企業約佔美國私人企業員工的三分之一。與其他企業相比，這些企業更依賴從中國、印度和泰國進口的商品 - 而零售和批發業尤其容易受到共和黨總統徵收的進口稅的影響。

研究結果清楚地表明，特朗普的進口稅存在利弊權衡，這與他聲稱外國製造商將承擔關稅成本，而不是依賴進口的美國公司的說法相矛盾。雖然特朗普政府推出的關稅尚未推高整體通膨，但亞馬遜、好市多、沃爾瑪和威廉斯-索諾瑪等大型企業在關稅生效前囤積庫存，從而延緩了潛在的後果。

這項分析報告發佈於特朗普正式設定對數十個國家商品徵收關稅的7月9日最後期限之前。特朗普設定這一最後期限是因為金融市場對他4月的關稅聲明感到恐慌，促使他安排了一個90天的談判期，在此期間大多數進口產品將面臨10%的基準關稅。中國、墨西哥和加拿大將面臨更高的關稅，鋼鐵和鋁也將分別面臨50%的關稅。

如果最初4月2日的關稅維持不變，摩根大通研究所分析的公司將面臨1,876億美元的額外直接成本。依照目前的轉換率，這823億美元相當於平均每位員工2,080美元，佔平均年薪的3.1%。這些平均值包括不進口商品的公司和進口商品的公司。

週二，當特朗普被問及貿易談判進展如何時，他簡單地回答： “一切進展順利。”

總統已表示，鑑於與眾多國家談判的後勤挑戰，他將自行設定關稅稅率。隨著90天期限的結束，只有英國與特朗普政府簽署了貿易框架協議。特朗普週三宣布，他已與越南達成協議，具體細節將隨後公佈。印度已表示即將就貿易框架協議達成協議。

越來越多的證據表明，通膨可能進一步加劇。投資銀行高盛在報告中表示，預計企業將把60%的關稅成本轉嫁給消費者。亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行利用其企業通膨預期調查結果顯示，企業平均可以將10%或25%關稅帶來的約一半負担轉嫁出去，而不會減少消費者需求。

摩根大通研究所的調查結果表明，關稅可能會導致一些國內製造商強化其作為商品供應商的角色。但該研究所指出，企業需要為一系列可能的結果做好規劃，而批發商和零售商的利潤率已經很低，他們可能需要將關稅成本分攤給客戶。

關稅前景仍然高度不確定。特朗普先前曾停止與加拿大的談判，但在加拿大放棄對數位服務徵稅計劃後，談判才得以重啟。週一，他還威脅稱，除非日本從美國購買更多大米，否則將對日本徵收更多關稅。

財政部長貝森特在周二的一次採訪中表示，貿易談判中收到的讓步給美國貿易代表辦公室和其他機構的職業官員留下了深刻的印象。

貝森特在霍仕新聞頻道的「霍仕與朋友」節目中說道: 「在財政部、商務部和美國貿易代表辦公室工作了20年的人們都說，這些協議是他們從未見過的」。

財政部長表示，特朗普政府計劃下週討論貿易協議的框架，優先處理共和黨在參議院多數席位之下於週二通過的減稅方案。特朗普已設定週五為通過這項數萬億美元方案的最後期限，總統希望用關稅收入來抵銷其方案的成本。

So, an analysis finds that a critical group of U.S. employers would face a direct cost of $82.3 billion from President Donald Trump’s current tariff plans, a sum that could be potentially managed through price hikes, layoffs, hiring freezes or lower profit margins. Apparently, US companies need to plan for a range of possible outcomes caused by the tariffs war.

比特幣上漲更多受機構需求而非投機驅動

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Bitcoin rally driven more by institutional demand than speculation

Reuters - Patturaja Murugaboopathy

Mon, July 14, 2025 at 8:09 a.m. PDT·2 min read

(Reuters) -As bitcoin hit a record high on Monday, evidence from institutional flows and derivatives suggested its rally might be more stable and lasting than previous speculative runs.

Bitcoin crossed $120,000 for the first time on optimism over upcoming U.S. House discussions on digital asset regulation, extending its gains this year to about 30%.

The rise has been fuelled by strong flows into bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and rising corporate treasury allocations.

Analysts said bitcoin's surge is driven this time by institutional flows and reflects its evolution into a more stable asset, sought after as investors seek diversification from market volatility and a wobbly U.S. dollar.

Institutional inflows tend to be longer-term and less prone to rapid reversal, lending greater stability and durability to the current rally.

Bitcoin ETFs have made a strong start to July, attracting $3.4 billion in inflows so far. That includes a record $2.2 billion over the past two days, the largest two-day net inflow on record, according to data from Farside Investors.

At the same time, open interest in bitcoin futures rose to a record $57.4 billion as of Friday, data from CoinDesk shows.

Open interest tracks the total value of outstanding futures contracts, and a sustained rise often points to greater institutional involvement, as larger investors tend to hold bigger, longer-term positions and use futures for hedging.

Yet, funding rates in the futures market remain subdued. According to CoinDesk, the annualised funding rate stood at 10%, well below the 80% peaks of 2023 and 40% at the end of last year.

The funding rate reflects the cost traders pay to keep bullish, leveraged bets open in the futures market. A decline signals they’re less willing to pay to stay in those positions — a sign of reduced speculative demand.

Glassnode data shows bitcoin’s estimated leverage ratio has declined to 0.25, down from 0.32 at the start of 2025.

The leverage ratio compares how large traders’ futures bets are relative to the amount of bitcoin on exchanges. A lower ratio means those bets are backed by more real capital and less borrowed money.

Glassnode data also showed an increase in short liquidations as traders betting against bitcoin bought back the token as prices rose, adding momentum to the rally.

Translation

比特幣上漲更多受機構需求而非投機驅動

（路透社）— 隨著比特幣週一創下歷史新高，機構資金流動和衍生性商品交易的證據表明，其漲勢可能比以往的投機性上漲更穩定、更持久。

由於對美國眾議院即將就數位資產監管進行討論的樂觀情緒，比特幣價格首次突破12萬美元，今年以來漲幅已擴大至約30%。

比特幣上漲的動力源自於大量資金流入比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）以及企業債配置的增加。

分析師表示，此次比特幣的飆升是由機構資金流動推動的，反映出其正逐漸成為更穩定的資產，投資者尋求分散投資以規避市場波動和美元波動的影響，因此比特幣受到追捧。

機構資金流入往往持續時間較長，且不易出現快速逆轉，這為當前的漲勢提供了更高的穩定性和持久性。

比特幣ETF在7月表現強勁，迄今已吸引34億美元的資金流入。根據Farside Investors的數據，過去兩天流入資金達創紀錄的22億美元，創下有史以來最大的雙日淨流入紀錄。

同時，CoinDesk的數據顯示，截至週五，比特幣期貨未平倉合約增至創紀錄的574億美元。

根據未平倉合約可以去追蹤未到期貨合約的總價值，持續上漲通常表示機構投資者的參與度有所提升，因為規模較大的投資者往往持有規模更大、期限更長的倉位，並使用期貨進行對沖。

然而，期貨市場的融資利率仍然低迷。根據CoinDesk的數據，年化融資利率為10%，遠低於2023年的80%高峰和去年年底的40%。

融資利率反映了交易員在期貨市場維持看漲槓桿部位所支付的成本。融資利率下降表明他們不太願意為維持這些部位而去支付費用 - 這顯示出投機需求有所減少。

Glassnode 的數據顯示，比特幣的預估槓桿率已從 2025 年初的 0.32 降至 0.25。

槓桿率指的是交易員的期貨押注規模與交易所比特幣數量的比例。較低的槓桿率意味著這些押注背後有更多由實資本和更少由借款支持。

Glassnode 的數據還顯示，由於空頭清算 (short liquidations) 數量增加，做空比特幣的交易員在價格上漲時回購了比特幣, 這為比特幣的上漲增添了動力。

       So, as bitcoin hit a record high on Monday, evidence from institutional flows and derivatives suggested its rally might be more stable and lasting than previous speculative runs. Apparently, bitcoin is gaining popularity in many countries, including the US.

Note:

1. Bitcoin ETFs (exchange‑traded funds)(比特幣交易所交易基金) are investment funds traded like stocks that let you gain exposure to Bitcoin indirectly, without owning or managing the cryptocurrency yourself. A spot Bitcoin ETF holds actual Bitcoin in custody and issues shares designed to track the current market price of Bitcoin while a Bitcoin futures ETF invests in futures contracts tied to Bitcoin's expected price rather than owning Bitcoin directly. (ChatGPT)

2. Open interest (futures) (未平倉合約) is the number of "open" contracts or open interest of derivatives in the futures market. Open interest in a derivative is the sum of all contracts that have not expired, been exercised or physically delivered. Open interest is used as a technical indicator as it is a measure of market activity. Little or no open interest means there is no one opening positions, or nearly all the positions have been closed. High open interest means there are many contracts still open and means that new or additional money are coming into the market. (Wikipedia)

3. In trading and finance, a short liquidation (空頭清算)refers to the forced closing of a short position—usually due to insufficient margin to support losses.  A short selling is that you borrow shares from a broker and immediately sell them, hoping the price drops. If you buy them back (cover) at a lower price, return them, you pocket the difference. (ChatGPT)

關稅衝擊令美國製造業陷入泥沼

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

US manufacturing mired in weakness as tariffs bite

Reuters - Lucia Mutikani

Tue, July 1, 2025 at 7:02 a.m. PDT·2 min read

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. manufacturing remained sluggish in June, with new orders subdued and prices paid for inputs creeping higher, suggesting that the Trump administration's tariffs on imported goods continued to hamper businesses' ability to plan ahead.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Tuesday that its manufacturing PMI nudged up to 49.0 last month from a six-month low of 48.5 in May. It was the fourth straight month that the PMI was below the 50 mark, which indicates contraction in the sector that accounts for 10.2% of the economy. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PMI little changed at 48.8.

The survey joined weak data on the housing market, consumer spending and swelling unemployment rolls that have suggested the economy's underlying momentum slowed further in the second quarter even as gross domestic product probably rebounded as the drag from a record trade deficit faded due to falling imports.

A measure of domestic demand grew at its slowest pace in more than two years in the January-March quarter. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, which have led businesses and households to front-run imports and goods purchases to avoid higher prices from duties, have muddled the economic picture. Economists warned it could take time for the tariff-related distortions to wash out of the economic data.

The PMI last month was likely lifted by longer delivery times, which under normal circumstances would be related to strong demand. The extensive tariffs have caused bottlenecks in the supply chain, resulting in factories waiting longer for raw material deliveries.

The ISM survey's supplier deliveries index slipped to 54.2 from 56.1 in May, though it was still high with a reading above 50 indicating slower deliveries. The ISM has reported "ongoing delays in clearing goods through ports of entry."

The situation, however, appears to have improved slightly, with the survey's imports measure rising to a still-subdued 47.4 after slumping to 39.9 in May. Manufacturing is heavily reliant on imported raw materials.

Though production at factories picked up last month, it was probably the result of manufacturers working through backlog orders. The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index dropped to 46.4 from 47.6 in May. This measure has now contracted for five consecutive months.

Its gauge of prices paid by factories for inputs ticked up to 69.7 from 69.4 in the prior month.

With manufacturers facing weak demand and higher prices for inputs, employment declined further last month. The survey's measure of manufacturing employment fell to 45.0 from 46.8 in May. The ISM has noted an "acceleration of headcount reductions due to uncertain near- to mid-term demand."

Translation

關稅衝擊令美國製造業陷入泥沼

華盛頓（路透）－美國製造業6月依然獃滯，新訂單低迷，入貨價格攀升，這顯示特朗普政府對進口商品徵收的關稅持續阻礙企業提前規劃的能力。

美國供應管理協會（ISM）週二公佈，其製造業 PMI 指數從5月的六個月低點 48.5 小幅回升至49.0。這是該指數連續第四個月低於50的關口，顯示佔美國經濟10.2%的製造業正在萎縮。路透社調查的經濟學家先前曾預測PMI指數將基本持平於48.8。

這項調查與疲軟的房地產市場、消費者支出和不斷膨脹的失業人數等數據結合一起，表明美國經濟第二季度的潛在增長勢頭進一步放緩，儘管國內生產總值 (GDP) 因進口減少而出現的創紀錄貿易減弱了赤字的拖累。

衡量國內需求的一項指標在1-3月季度增速創下兩年多來的最低水準。特朗普總統的全面關稅措施導致企業和家庭搶先購買進口商品，以避免關稅導致的價格上漲，這擾亂了經濟狀況。經濟學家警告稱，關稅相關的扭曲因素可能需要一段時間才能從經濟數據中消退。

上個月的 PMI 數據的上升可能是由於交貨時間延長所致，在正常情況下，交貨時間延長與需求強勁有關。廣泛的關稅導致了供應鏈出現瓶頸，導致工廠等待原材料交付的時間更長。

美國供應管理協會 的調查供應商交貨指數從5月的56.1下滑至54.2，但該指數仍處於高位，高於50的讀數顯示交貨速度放緩。 協會報告稱，「貨物透過入境口岸的清關持續有延誤」。

不過，情況似乎略有改善，該調查的進口指標在5月暴跌至39.9之後，回升至仍低迷的47.4。製造業嚴重依賴進口原料。

儘管上個月工廠產量有所回升，但這可能是製造商處理積壓訂單的結果。 美國供應管理協會 調查的前瞻性新訂單分項指數從5月的47.6降至46.4。此指標已連續五個月收縮。

該分項指數衡量工廠投入品支付價格，從上個月的69.4小幅上升至69.7。

由於製造商面臨需求疲軟和投入品價格上漲，上個月就業人數進一步下降。調查的製造業的就業指數從5月的46.8降至45.0。 協會指出， “由於近期至中期需求的不確定性，裁員速度正在加快。”

              So, ISM said that its manufacturing PMI went up to 49.0 last month from a six-month low of 48.5 in May. It was the fourth straight month that the PMI was below the 50-mark. U.S. manufacturing remained sluggish in June, with new orders subdued and prices paid for inputs going higher, suggesting that the Trump administration's tariffs on imported goods continued to hamper businesses' ability to plan ahead.