特朗普簽署新台灣法，台灣歡呼，中國不滿

Recently Google News on-line picked up the following:

Taiwan cheered, China upset after Trump signs new Taiwan legislation into law

By Reuters - Reporting by Ben Blanchard and Joe Cash; Editing by Michael Perry

December 3, 20254:04 PM GMT+8Updated December 3, 2025

TAIPEI/BEIJING, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Taiwan expressed thanks and China was upset on Wednesday after President Donald Trump signed into law legislation requiring the U.S. State Department to regularly review and update guidelines on how the United States officially interacts with Taipei.

The United States is Taiwan's most important international backer despite the lack of formal diplomatic ties, and the issue is a constant source of irritation in Sino-U.S. relations given Beijing views the democratically-governed island as its own.

In 2021 under the first Trump administration, then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo lifted restrictions on contacts between U.S. officials and their Taiwanese counterparts, put in place after Washington recognised Beijing in 1979.

The Taiwan Assurance Implementation Act, which Trump signed into law on Tuesday, says the U.S. State Department should carry out reviews of contacts with Taiwan no less than once every five years.

The law "affirms the value of U.S. interaction with Taiwan, supports closer Taiwan-U.S. relations, and stands as a firm symbol of our shared values of democracy, freedom, and respect for human rights", Taiwan Presidential Office spokesperson Karen Kuo said in a statement.

Taiwan Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung told reporters more frequent reviews of the guidelines would allow Taiwanese officials into federal agencies for meetings, for example, though the legislation does not make explicit mention of this.

In Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said China firmly opposes any form of official contact between the United States and "the Taiwan region of China".

"The Taiwan question is the core of China's core interests and the first red line that must not be crossed in China–U.S. relations," he added.

The United States should exercise "the utmost prudence in handling the Taiwan question, to stop all official interactions between the U.S. and Taiwan, and not to send any wrong signals to 'Taiwan independence' separatist forces", Lin said.

Taiwan's government rejects China's territorial claims and says it has a right to freely engage with countries around the world.

Translation

特朗普簽署新台灣法，台灣歡呼，中國不滿

台北/北京，12月3日（路透社）- 週三，美國總統特朗普簽署了一項法案，要求美國國務院定期審查和更新美國與台北官方互動方式的指導方針。此舉引發台灣的感謝，而中國則感到不滿。

儘管台灣與美國沒有正式外交關係，但美國仍是台灣最重要的國際支持者。鑑於北京將這個民主治理的島嶼視為其領土的一部分，台灣問題一直是中美關係中持續的摩擦點。

2021年，在特朗普第一任期內，時任國務卿蓬佩奧取消了美國官員與台灣官員接觸的限制。這些限制是在華盛頓於1979年承認北京後實施的。

特朗普週二簽署生效的《台灣保證實施法》規定，美國國務院應至少每五年對與台灣的接觸情況進行一次審查。

台灣總統府發言人Karen Kuo在聲明中表示，該法「肯定了美台互動的重要性，支持加強台美關係，並成為我們共同的民主、自由和尊重人權價值的堅定象徵」。

台灣外交部長Lin Chia-lung告訴記者，更頻繁地審查這些準則將允許台灣官員進入聯邦機構進行會晤等，儘管該法案並未明確提及這一點。

在北京，中國外交部發言人Lin Jian表示，中方堅決反對美國與「中國台灣地區」進行任何形式的官方接觸。

他補充道:「台灣問題是中國核心利益的核心，也是中美關係中不容逾越的第一條紅線」。

Lin表示，美國在處理台灣問題上應「極度謹慎，停止美台一切官方往來，不要向『台獨』分裂勢力發出任何錯誤訊號」。

台灣當局拒絕承認中國的領土主張，並表示有權與世界各國自由交往。

              So, Donald Trump has signed into law legislation requiring the U.S. State Department to regularly review and update guidelines on how the United States officially interacts with Taipei. Taiwan presumes that more frequent reviews of the guidelines would allow Taiwanese officials into federal agencies for meetings, for example. Apparently, in the calculation of the US, Taiwan has a key role to play in checking mainland China.

Six Types of Sugars Detected in Asteroid Sand Brought Back by NASA Probe

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

NASAの探査機が持ち帰った小惑星の砂から6種類の糖を検出

2025年12月2日午後7時02分

宇宙

NASA＝アメリカ航空宇宙局の探査機が地球に持ち帰った小惑星の砂から6種類の糖を検出したと、日本などの国際研究グループが発表しました。見つかった糖のうち「リボース」はRNAを構成する分子で、研究グループは、宇宙に生命の材料となる糖が存在し、地球に降り注いでいたことを示す結果だとしています。

日本とアメリカの国際研究グループは、NASAの探査機が太陽系の小惑星「ベンヌ」から地球に持ち帰った砂などのサンプルのうちおよそ0.6グラムを分析し、6種類の糖を検出しました。

このうち、「リボース」は遺伝情報を伝えるRNAを構成する分子で、「グルコース」は生命のエネルギー源となる分子として知られています。

研究グループによりますと、この小惑星のサンプルからは、これまでに、たんぱく質の材料になる「アミノ酸」や、DNAとRNAに使われる5種類の「核酸塩基」が検出されていましたが、糖が検出されたのは初めてです。

一方で、こうした糖の一部は地球上に落下した隕石（いんせき）からも検出された例があります。 

こうしたことから研究グループは、宇宙に生命の材料となる物質が存在し、それらが隕石によって地球にもたらされたという仮説を強く裏付ける結果だとしています。

研究グループの東北大学大学院理学研究科の古川善博准教授は「宇宙から生命の材料が来ていたことがより確実になった。宇宙から来た材料で生命ができたのか、地球での化学反応で生命の材料ができたのかはまだ分からず、さらに研究していきたい」と話しています。

「生命の起源」の元となる物質は宇宙から？それとも地球？

「生命の起源」の元となる物質が宇宙から来たのか、それとも地球でできたのかは、今も議論が続いています。

惑星科学に詳しい東京科学大学地球生命研究所の関根康人教授は、「地球外から来た材料物質が生命の誕生にどれぐらい寄与したのかは現時点ではっきりとは分からない」としています。

関根教授によりますと、生命の起源の元となる物質が原始の地球にどれくらいあったのかは当時の大気の化学組成によって大きく変わってくるということです。

大気の組成が生命の材料物質ができるのに適さなかった場合は、隕石などによる地球外からの材料物質の供給が相対的に重要になるとしています。

関根教授は小惑星のサンプルから糖を検出した今回の研究成果について、「われわれの生命の元となるもののでき方、生命のレシピを明らかにする研究をこれからやる必要がある」と話していました。

Translation

Six Types of Sugars Detected in Asteroid Sand Brought Back by NASA Probe

An international research group, including researchers from Japan, announced that they had detected six types of sugars in asteroid sand brought back to Earth by a NASA = National Aeronautics and Space Administration probe. Among the sugars found was ribose which was a molecule that made up RNA. The research group believed this result indicated that sugars, the building blocks of life, existed in space and had rained down to Earth.

An international research group from Japan and the United States analyzed approximately 0.6 grams of sand and other samples brought back to Earth by a NASA probe from the solar system asteroid Bennu and detected six types of sugars.

Of these, ribose was a molecule that makes up RNA, which transmitted genetic information, and glucose was known as a molecule that served as an energy source for life.

According to the research group, amino acids, the building blocks of proteins, and five types of “nucleic acid bases” used in DNA and RNA had previously been detected in this asteroid sample, but this was the first time that sugars was detected.

However, there were incidents that some of these sugars had also been detected in meteorites that fell to Earth.

The research group stated that these results strongly supported the hypothesis that materials that could lead to life had existed in space and were brought to Earth by meteorites.

Associate Professor Yoshihiro Furukawa (古川善博) of the Tohoku University Graduate School of Science and member of the research group, said, "We are now more certain that the materials for life came from space. We still don't know whether life was created from materials that came from space, or whether the materials for life were created through chemical reactions on Earth, so we would like to conduct further research."

Did the material that formed the origin of life come from space? Or Earth?

Debate continued as to whether the material that formed “the origin of life” came from space or was created on Earth.

Professor Yasuto Sekine (関根康人) of the Earth-Life Science Institute at Tokyo University of Science, who specialized in planetary science, said, "At this point, we cannot clearly determine to what extent materials that came from outside Earth contributed to the birth of life."

According to Professor Sekine, the amount of material that could be the origin of life appeared on primordial Earth depended greatly on the chemical composition of the atmosphere at the time.

If the composition of the atmosphere was not suitable for the formation of the materials for life, then the supply of materials from outside the Earth, such as through meteorites, would become relatively important.

Regarding the results of this research, which detected sugars in asteroid samples, Professor Sekine said, "We need to continue research to uncover how the materials that gave us life are formed, and the recipe for life."

              So, an international research group has announced that they detect six types of sugars in asteroid sand brought back to Earth by NASA. Among the sugars found is ribose which is a molecule that made up RNA. The research group believes this result indicated that sugars, the building blocks of life, all along has existed in space and may have rained down to Earth previously. Apparently, this is an interesting discovery that may help find out whether “the origin of life” came from space or was created on Earth.

大學生湧向人工智能新專業（2/2）

College Students Flock to a New Major: A.I. (2/2)

At M.I.T., a new program called “artificial intelligence and decision-making” is now the second-most-popular undergraduate major.

The NYT - By Natasha Singer (Natasha Singer covers computer science and A.I. education.)

Dec. 1, 2025

(continue)

Over the past 15 years, the boom in smartphones and social media, along with industry promises of high-paying tech jobs, helped fuel college enrollments in computing. Nearly 173,000 undergraduates majored in computer science in the spring of 2024, compared with about 65,000 students a decade earlier, according to the Computing Research Association, a nonprofit that gathers data annually from about 200 universities.

But this fall, 62 percent of computing programs reported undergraduate enrollment declines, according to a report in October from the Computing Research Association.

One reason for the dip: student employment concerns.

Some large tech companies are laying off thousands of workers, and recent computing graduates say they have faced increased challenges in landing tech jobs this year. Companies like Amazon have also begun asking their software engineers to use A.I. tools that can write code, potentially reducing the need for junior programmers.

Among 133 computing programs participating in the Computing Research Association report, 66 percent somewhat or strongly agreed that computing majors who graduated this year were having difficulty getting jobs.

“It’s a noticeable difference,” said Andy Meneely, the undergraduate program director for software engineering at the Rochester Institute of Technology, “especially when I see really good students struggling to get a job.”

While computer science enrollment generally declined this year, many schools reported increased enrollment in subfields like A.I. Tracy Camp, the executive director of the Computing Research Association, called the shift “a new era for computing degrees becoming more specialized.”

That’s true of the A.I. major at U.C. San Diego, which is based in the department of computer science and engineering. As part of the program, the university developed two new courses in the foundations of A.I. and machine learning. Students must also take advanced math and grapple with the social impacts of emerging technologies, said Mia Minnes, the university’s vice chair for undergraduate computer science education.

Ms. Banga, the first-year student there, said her siblings were initially skeptical of her chosen degree program.

“They were like: ‘What? There’s a major called A.I.? No way!’” she said. “But my dad is in the tech business, and he was really happy.”

Translation

大學生湧向人工智能新專業（2/2）

在麻省理工學院，一個名為「人工智能與決策」的新課程如今已成為第二大熱門本科專業。

（繼續）

過去15年，智能型手機和社交媒體的蓬勃發展，以及科技業對高薪工作的承諾，推動了大學電腦專業的入學人數增長。根據電腦研究協會（Computing Research Association）的數據顯示，2024年春季，近17.3萬名本科生主修電腦科學，而十年前這一數字約為6.5萬人。該協會是一家非營利組織，每年從約200所大學收集數據。

但根據電腦研究協會10月發布的報告，今年秋季，62%的電腦專業課程稱報讀大學生人數出現下降。

導致人數下降的原因之一是：學生就業出路問題。

一些大型科技公司正在裁員數千人，而近期電腦專業的畢業生表示，今年他們在尋找科技工作方面面臨更大的挑戰。像亞馬遜這樣的公司也開始要求其軟體工程師使用能夠編寫程式碼的人工智能工具，這可能會減少對初級程式設計師的需求。

在參與電腦研究協會報告的133個電腦專業課程中，66%的課程在某種程度上認同, 或強烈認同今年電腦專業畢業生就業困難。

羅徹斯特理工學院軟件工程本科課程主任Andy Meneely說:“這是一個顯著的變化”，“尤其是我看到一些非常優秀的學生都在苦苦尋找工作。”

雖然今年電腦科學專業的入學人數總體下降，但許多學校報告稱，人工智能等細分領域的入學人數有所增加。電腦研究協會執行董事 Tracy Camp 將這種轉變稱為「電腦學位專業化的新時代」。

加州聖地牙哥大學的人工智能專業就是如此, 把電腦科學系與工程系課程作為學習人工智能基礎。作為該課程基礎的一部分，該大學開發了人工智能和機器學習兩門新的班別。本科電腦科學教育副主任Mia Minnes表示，學生還必須學習高等數學，並深入探討新興科技帶來的社會影響。

該校一年級學生Banga女士說，她的兄弟姐妹最初對她選擇的專業持懷疑態度。

她說道:“他們當時說： ‘什麼？有個專業叫人工智能？不可能吧！’”，“但我爸爸是做科技行業的，他非常高興。”

              So, artificial intelligence is the hot new college major. This semester, more than 3,000 students enrolled in a new college of artificial intelligence and cybersecurity at the University of South Florida in Tampa. One reason for the changes is that students have employment concerns. Apparently, AI is affecting the choice of university students in deciding their major area of study.

大學生湧向人工智能新專業（1/2）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

College Students Flock to a New Major: A.I. (1/2)

At M.I.T., a new program called “artificial intelligence and decision-making” is now the second-most-popular undergraduate major.

The NYT - By Natasha Singer (Natasha Singer covers computer science and A.I. education.)

Dec. 1, 2025

Artificial intelligence is the hot new college major.

This semester, more than 3,000 students enrolled in a new college of artificial intelligence and cybersecurity at the University of South Florida in Tampa.

At the University of California, San Diego, 150 first-year students signed up for a new A.I. major. And the State University of New York at Buffalo created a stand-alone “department of A.I. and society,” which is offering new interdisciplinary degrees in fields like “A.I. and policy analysis.”

The fast popularization of products like ChatGPT, along with skyrocketing valuations of tech giants like the chip maker Nvidia, is helping to drive the campus A.I. boom.

Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft have poured billions of dollars into the technology. And this year, Google and Microsoft announced company efforts to train millions of students and adult workers on A.I..

Now interest in understanding, using and learning how to build A.I. technologies is soaring, and schools are racing to meet rising student and industry demand.

Over the last two years, dozens of U.S. universities and colleges have announced new A.I. departments, majors, minors, courses, interdisciplinary concentrations and other programs.

In 2022, for instance, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology created a major called “A.I. and decision-making.” Students in the program learn to develop A.I. systems and study how technologies like robots interact with humans and the environment. This year, nearly 330 students are enrolled in the program — making A.I. the second-largest major at M.I.T. after computer science.

“Students who prefer to work with data to address problems find themselves more drawn to an A.I. major,” said Asu Ozdaglar, the deputy dean of academics at the M.I.T. Schwarzman College of Computing. Students interested in applying A.I. in fields like biology and health care are also flocking to the new major, she added.

Some college students said that the new major seemed timely, and that they hoped the A.I. branding would open up more job opportunities.

Leena Banga, a first-year student from Fremont, Calif., said she had become interested in A.I. after trying out chatbots and wanted to understand more about how the underlying technology worked. After participating in an A.I. summer program for high school students at the University of Pennsylvania, she decided to pursue the new major at U.C. San Diego.

“This is so cool to me to have the opportunity to be at the forefront of this,” said Ms. Banga, 18.

Had universities not yet offered new A.I. degrees, Ms. Banga said, she would have chosen computer science — a popular major that teaches computer programming and fundamental computing concepts, like the algorithmic building blocks of A.I.

(to be continued)

Translation

大學生湧向人工智能新專業（1/2）

在麻省理工學院，一個名為「人工智能與決策」的新課程如今已成為第二大最受歡迎的本科專業。

人工智能是大學裡炙手可熱的新興專業。

本學期，超過3000名學生在Tampa的南佛羅裡達大學新成立的人工智能與網路安全學院註冊入學。

在加州大學聖地牙哥分校，150名一年級新生報名參加了新的人工智能專業。紐約州立大學Buffalo分校則創建了一個獨立的 “人工智能與社會系” ，該系提供諸如 “人工智能與政策分析” 等領域的跨學科學位。

ChatGPT等產品的快速普及，以及英偉達等晶片製造商等科技巨頭的估值飆升，正在推動校園人工智能的蓬勃發展。 

亞馬遜、谷歌、Meta和微軟已向該技術投入數十億美元。今年，Google和微軟宣布了公司計劃，將對數百萬學生和成年員工進行人工智能培訓。

如今，人們對理解、使用和學習如何建構人工智能技術的興趣與日俱增，各院校也在競相滿足學生和產業日益增長的需求。

過去兩年，數十所美國大學和學院宣佈設立新的人工智能系、主修、副修、課程、跨學科密集和其他課程。

例如，2022年，麻省理工學院開設了「人工智能與決策」專業。該專業的學生將學習開發人工智能系統，並研究機器人等技術如何與人類和環境互動。今年，近330名學生註冊了人工智能專業，使其成為麻省理工學院（MIT）僅次於電腦科學的第二大專業。

麻省理工學院施瓦茨曼計算機學院副院長Asu Ozdaglar表示:「那些喜歡利用數據解決問題的學生更容易被人工智能專業吸引」。她補充說，對將人工智能應用於生物學和醫療保健等領域感興趣的學生也紛紛湧向這個新專業。

一些大學生表示，這個新專業的出現恰逢其時，他們希望人工智能的品牌效應能帶來更多就業機會。

來自加州弗里蒙特的大一新生Leena Banga表示，她在體驗過聊天機器人後對人工智能產生了興趣，並希望更多地了解其底層技術的工作原理。在參加了賓州大學高中生的人工智能暑期計劃後，她決定在加州大學聖地牙哥分校攻讀這個新專業。

18歲的Banga女士說： “能有機會站在人工智能的最前線，我感到無比興奮。”

Banga女士表示，如果大學還沒有開設人工智能專業，她會選擇電腦科學 - 這是一個熱門專業，教授電腦程式設計和基礎運算概念，例如人工智能的演算法建構模組。

（待續）

[Analysis] Why is the Cryptocurrency Market Crashing?

 Recently CNN.co.jp  reported the following:

【分析】なぜ暗号資産市場は暴落しているのか

2025.11.26 Wed posted at 18:59 JST

ニューヨーク（CNN） 暗号資産（仮想通貨）の基準に照らしても、この数週間は波乱続きだ。

デジタル資産の投資家は極端な値動きに慣れているものの、ここ6週間で1兆ドル（約155兆円8000億円）が吹き飛び、暗号資産の筋金入りの信奉者でさえ信念が試される展開になりつつある。新規参入者の間では暗号資産離れが相次ぐ。

代表的な暗号資産のビットコインは、10月上旬に過去最高値となる12万6000ドルを付けて以降、急落している。ビットコインは今月21日に8万1000ドルを割り込んだ後、週末にやや回復。24日には株式市場全体が持ち直し、ビットコインも24時間で2%近く上昇して8万8000ドルを上回った。（暗号資産市場は週7日、1日24時間開いている）

今月は記録に残る限り、暗号資産にとって過去最悪レベルの月になりそうだ。しかも、市場が底を打ったのかどうかは判然としない。

ドイツ銀行のアナリストは24日、「今回の調整後にビットコインが安定するかは依然見通せない」と指摘。「個人投資家による投機が主因となっていた過去の暴落とは異なり、今年の下落は機関投資家の大規模参入、政策の動向、世界的なマクロトレンドの中で起きつつある」と記した。

近年、暗号資産の値動きは株式市場とおおむね連動してきたが、現在の不安はもっと根深い。その大きな要因として、暗号資産投資家の資金とは非常に異なった動きをする主流資金の流入がある。

S＆P500の下落が直近のピークから3％にとどまる一方、ビットコインは直近の高値から30％下げて弱気相場入りしている。このままいくと2022年に暗号資産の「冬」が到来して、サム・バンクマン・フリード被告が設立した暗号資産（仮想通貨）交換業者FTXトレーディングの崩壊を招いて以来、最悪の月になりそうだ。

株式と暗号資産に不安が集まっている主な理由は二つ。投資家が連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）による追加利下げを懸念していること、そしてAI（人工知能）バブルが眼前ではじけるのではないかとの不安を抱いていることだ。

デジタル資産はハイテク株と同様、FRBの基準金利の変化に極めて敏感なことから、これら全てが暗号資産トレーダーの心理に重くのしかかっている。金利の変化は借り入れコストに影響を及ぼし、投資家のリスク許容度を急速にしぼませる可能性がある。

だがこれに加え、暗号資産投資家は10月10日に発生した「フラッシュクラッシュ」の後遺症にも悩まされている。トランプ米大統領がこの日、中国との貿易戦争を再燃させたことでパニック売りが広がり、ハイレバレッジの暗号資産市場でロスカットを誘発。1日で190億ドル分の暗号資産が吹き飛んだ。胃が痛むような暴落をきっかけに暗号資産市場から完全撤退する投資家も多く、ビットコインなどのトークンは一段と大きな変動にさらされている状況だ。

フラッシュクラッシュの結果、多くの投資家は保有資産を売却してマージンコール（追証）に応じることを余儀なくされた。これは雪だるま式に影響を誘発する傾向にある。ビットコインが下がれば下がるほど、投資家は証券会社から追証を求められ、ポジションをカバーするためにビットコイン（その他の資産）を売らねばならなくなる。

今回の暗号資産の暴落がこれまでと違うのは、米規制当局が昨年承認した現物ビットコインのファンドを通じて数十億ドルの主流資金が流入している点だ。

主流の投資家は相場上昇の波に乗ろうと暗号資産に参入したが、初期の参入者ほどその理念に傾倒しているわけではない。初期参入者はインターネット上の熱心なコミュニティーに支えられており、押し目買いを入れて信念を貫くよう互いに励まし合ってきた。

インタラクティブ・ブローカーズのチーフストラテジスト、スティーブ・ソスニック氏は「要するに、今やビットコインは一般投資家のものになった」と筆者にコメント。「結果として、一般投資家は今後、ビットコインをポートフォリオ内のもう一つの投機資産とみなし、変動の激しい主流投資商品と同じように扱うだろう」と指摘している。

Translation

[Analysis] Why is the Cryptocurrency Market Crashing?

New York (CNN) -- The past few weeks had been turbulent, even by Crypto asset (Cryptocurrency) standards.

Digital asset investors were accustomed to extreme price swings, but the loss of $1 trillion (approximately ¥155 trillion and ¥800 billion) over the past six weeks was testing even the most ardent crypto enthusiasts' beliefs. Newcomers were increasingly abandoning the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, had plummeted since hitting an all-time high of $126,000 in early October. Bitcoin fell below $81,000 on the 21st of this month before recovering somewhat over the weekend. On the 24th, the broader stock market rebounded, and Bitcoin rose nearly 2% in 24 hours to over $88,000. (The cryptocurrency market was open 24 hours a day, seven days a week.)

This month, as far as records went, was one of the worst months for cryptocurrencies. Moreover, it's unclear whether the market had bottomed out.

Deutsche Bank analysts noted on the 24th that "it remains unclear whether Bitcoin will stabilize after this correction." They wrote "Unlike past crashes driven primarily by speculation by individual investors, this year's decline is occurring amid a backdrop of large-scale participation of institutional investors, policy trends, happening amidst global macro trends".

In recent years, while cryptocurrency price movements had largely linked to the stock market, the current concerns were more deeply rooted. A major factor was the influx of mainstream funds, which behaved very differently from cryptocurrency investor funds.

While the S&P 500 was down just 3% from its recent peak, Bitcoin had fallen 30% from its recent high, entering a bear market. If things continued as they were, this would be the worst month since the "Crypto Winter" of 2022, which led to the collapse of FTX Trading, the cryptocurrency exchange founded by defendant Sam Bankman-Fried.

There were two main reasons for the anxiety surrounding stocks and cryptocurrency: investors were afraid of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve Board (FDR) and feared that the AI ​​ (Artificial Intelligence) bubble could burst before our eyes.

Digital assets, like tech stocks, were highly sensitive to changes in the Fed's benchmark interest rate, all of these were weighing heavily on the minds of cryptocurrency traders. Changes in interest rates would affect borrowing costs, it could quickly erode investors' risk-taking appetite.

But on top of this, cryptocurrency investors were also struggling with the aftereffects of the "flash crash" that occurred on October 10. U.S. President Donald Trump reignited the trade war with China on that day, sparking widespread panic selling and triggering loss-cut in the highly leveraged cryptocurrency market. $19 billion worth of crypto assets was wiped out in a single day. The gut-wrenching crash prompted many investors to exit the cryptocurrency market entirely, exposing Bitcoin and other tokens to even greater volatility.

As a result of the flash crash, many investors were forced to sell their holdings to meet margin calls, which tended to trigger a snowball effect. The deeper Bitcoin fell, the more investors were pressured by brokerage firms to provide margin calls, forcing them to sell Bitcoin (and other assets) to cover their positions.

What made the present cryptocurrency crash different from previous ones was that billions of dollars of mainstream money were flowing in through physical Bitcoin funds approved last year by U.S. regulators.

Mainstream investors entered the cryptocurrency market hoping to ride the rising tide, but they were not as ideologically committed as early entrants. Early entrants were supported by passionate online communities, who encouraged each other to buy the dips and stick to their convictions.

Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, told me “In short, Bitcoin now belongs to the average investor. " He pointed out that "As a result, average investors will likely view Bitcoin as another speculative asset in their portfolios, treating it in the same way as volatile mainstream investments."

              So, there is a Crypto asset crash. What makes this cryptocurrency crash different from previous ones is that billions of dollars of mainstream funds are flowing in through spot Bitcoin funds.  It is believed that Bitcoin now belongs to the average investors and as a result, average investors will likely view Bitcoin as another speculative asset in their portfolios, treating it in the same way as volatile mainstream investments.

Note:

1. Sam Bankman-Fried (born March 5, 1992), commonly known as SBF, is an American entrepreneur who was convicted of fraud and related crimes in November 2023. Bankman-Fried founded the FTX cryptocurrency exchange and was celebrated as a "poster boy" for crypto, with FTX having a global reach with more than 130 international affiliates. At the peak of his net worth, he was ranked the 41st-richest American in the Forbes 400. In November 2022, as evidence of potential fraud began to surface, depositors quickly withdrew their assets from FTX, forcing the company into bankruptcy. On December 12, 2022, Bankman-Fried was arrested in the Bahamas and extradited to the United States, where he was indicted on seven criminal charges, including wire fraud, commodities fraud, securities fraud, money laundering, and campaign finance law violations. (Wikipedia)

2. A flash crash refers to an event where prices of the overall market or a particular stock decline rapidly then recovers quickly, sometimes within the span of minutes. The cause of a flash crash is typically a rapid sell-off of securities, resulting in dramatic price declines. However, as prices rebound by the end of a trading day, it can appear as if the flash crash never happened. (Investopedia)

汽車業的完美理想：不依賴中國稀土的馬達（2/2）

Recently the New York Timers reported the following:

An Auto Holy Grail: Motors That Don’t Rely on Chinese Rare Earths (2/2)

Weary of being captive to geopolitics, car companies are looking for ways to replace powerful rare-earth magnets in electric motors.

By Jack Ewing - Reporting from Sunnyvale, Calif., and New York

Nov. 24, 2025

(continue)

G.M. is also searching for components that don’t need rare earths. “There’s nothing like not having to use rare-earth things, whether it’s magnets or batteries or whatever,” Mark Reuss, the president of G.M., said at a company event in New York recently. “How do we engineer out that dependency?”

A G.M. spokesman declined to provide specifics.

Back in the 1980s, a G.M. unit developed magnets made from neodymium, iron and boron, which are now widely used in electric vehicle motors. But G.M. sold the technology to Chinese companies.

BMW is using motors without neodymium or other rare earths in models like the iX sport utility vehicle. An electric current generates the magnetic field inside the motor that converts electrons to motion.

A spike in the price of neodymium around 2011 prompted BMW to begin developing the technology. The luxury carmaker says it has largely solved the drawbacks of these motors, which tend to be heavier, bulkier and less energy efficient than those with rare earths. The company makes the motors in factories near its headquarters in Munich and in Austria.

The motors are more efficient than those that use rare earths at the speeds required for everyday driving, said Stefan Ortmann, a BMW engineer. There are other advantages, he said. The magnetic field in BMW’s motors can be dialed up or down, and the motors are easier to keep cool.

“We think it’s the sweet spot for us,” Mr. Ortmann said.

A new version of the motor is even more efficient than earlier machines and will be installed in the iX3 S.U.V. that BMW will sell in the United States next summer. The company says that model will be able to travel 400 miles between charges.

Silicon Valley has also taken note of the rare-earth crisis. In rented garages in Sunnyvale, Calif., a start-up called Conifer has developed a compact, disc-shaped electric motor that can operate without rare earths.

Conifer is initially producing motors for two-wheeled vehicles, found by the millions in many countries, but it hopes to produce motors for cars in a few years.

Rare-earth concerns have fueled interest in the technology, said Ankit Somani, a co-founder of Conifer. “Demand is not a problem,” he said. “Our main thing is how do we scale our production quickly.”

But versions of the motors that use rare earths pack more power into a smaller package, Mr. Somani added. The auto industry’s holy grail would be material that matched the advantages of rare earths but did not come from China.

Such materials exist, but only in small quantities around the globe. Tetrataenite, for example, is made of iron and nickel, which are abundant. But it takes hundreds of millions of years for the iron and nickel atoms to form the unique structure of tetrataenite, which occurs naturally only in meteorites.

Laura Lewis, a chemical engineering professor at Northeastern University, and colleagues have developed a way to synthesize tetrataenite in weeks rather than eons. But there is still a long way to go before the material can be mass-produced, she said, and even then it will not replace rare earths in all applications.

“It’s not a short-term solution,” Dr. Lewis said.

The Trump administration is offering grants of up to $3 million to help researchers develop alternatives to rare earths. To qualify, applicants must strive to create magnets twice as powerful as the best rare-earth magnets, a goal that some experts say is unrealistic.

In a document outlining the program, the Department of Energy expressed confidence that the target could be met using artificial intelligence.

“Recent technological advances have the potential to dramatically accelerate new magnet discovery,” the department’s Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy, said in August. The department did not respond to a request for comment.

Translation

汽車業的完美理想：不依賴中國稀土的馬達（2/2）

汽車公司厭倦了受制於地緣政治，正在尋找替代電動馬達中強力稀土磁鐵的方法。

（繼續）

通用汽車也在尋找不需要稀土的零件。 通用汽車總裁Mark Reuss最近在紐約的一次公司活動上表示:“無論是磁鐵、電池還是其他任何部件，不用稀土都是一件好事”，“我們該如何擺脫這種依賴呢？”

通用汽車發言人拒絕透露具體細節。

早在1980年代，通用汽車旗下的一個部門就開發出了由釹、鐵和硼製成的磁鐵，如今這些磁鐵已廣泛應用於電動汽車馬達。但通用汽車已將這項技術出售給中國公司。

BMW在iX運動型多用途車等車款中使用不含釹或其他稀土的馬達。馬達內部的電流產生磁場，磁場將電子轉化為動力。

2011年前後釹的價格飆升促使BMW開始研發這項技術。這家豪華汽車製造商表示，他們已基本解決了這些馬達的缺點，這些馬達通常比使用稀土的馬達更重、體積更大、能效更低。 BMW在慕尼黑總部附近和奧地利的工廠生產這些馬達。

寶馬工程師Stefan Ortmann表示，這些馬達在日常駕駛所需的速度下比使用稀土的馬達效率更高。他也表示，這些馬達還有其他優勢。 BMW馬達的磁場強度可以調節，而且更容易散熱。

Ortmann先生說: 「我們認為這對我們來說這是最理想的狀態」。

新版本的馬達比之前的型號效率更高，並將安裝在寶馬明年夏天在美國銷售的iX3 SUV上。該公司表示，該車型每次充電後可行駛400英里。

矽谷也注意到了稀土危機。在加州桑尼維爾租用的車庫裡，一家名為Conifer的初創公司開發出了一種結構緊密的圓盤狀馬達，無需依靠稀土來運作。

Conifer最初生產的是用於兩輪車的馬達，在許多國家都可以見到數百萬輛這種兩輪車，但該公司希望在幾年內生產汽車馬達。

Conifer聯合創始人Ankit Somani表示，對稀土的擔憂激發了人們對這項技術的興趣。 他說:「需求不是問題」; 「我們最關心的是如何快速擴大生產規模」。

Somani先生補充說，使用稀土的馬達版本能夠在更小的體積內提供更大的動力。汽車產業的終極目標是找到一種既具備稀土優勢又非產自中國的材料。

這樣的材料確實存在，但全球儲量極少。例如，四方镍纹石由鐵和鎳組成，這兩種元素儲量豐富。但鐵和鎳原子需要數億年的時間才能形成四方镍纹石獨特的結構，這種結構天然存在於隕石中。

東北大學化學工程教授Laura Lewis及其同事開發了一種在幾週內而非億萬年內合成四方镍纹石的方法。但她表示，這種材料距離大規模生產還有很長的路要走，即使有大規模生產，它也無法在所有應用中取代稀土。

Lewis博士說: 「這不是一個短期解決方案」。

特朗普政府提供高達300萬美元的資助，幫助研究人員開發稀土替代品。申請者必須努力研發出比現有最佳稀土磁鐵大兩倍磁力的新型磁鐵，但一些專家認為這一目標不切實際。

在一份概述該計劃的文件中，美國能源部表示，他們相信利用人工智能可以實現這一目標

能源部高級研究計劃署（ARPA-E）在8月表示：「近期的技術進步可望大幅加速新型磁鐵的發現」。能源部並未對此置評。

              So, automakers in the United States and Europe are quietly trying to reduce or eliminate the need for materials that have become entangled in superpower rivalries. These companies are exploring technologies and exotic materials that could replace magnets made with rare-earth metals. Many people are optimistic that the rare-earth problem can be resolved soon, apparently, this will reduce the reliance on China.

Note:

Tetrataenite（四方镍纹石） is a promising alternative to rare-earth magnets, composed of iron and nickel. Researchers at the University of Cambridge, in collaboration with Austrian scientists, have developed a new method to synthesize this alloy, potentially replacing rare-earth magnets in applications like wind turbines and electric vehicles. Tetrataenite's magnetic properties stem from its ordered crystalline structure, similar to rare-earth magnets. Unlike rare earths, iron and nickel are readily available, making tetrataenite a more sustainable option. This research, published in Advanced Science, offers a significant advancement in materials science and could impact the rare earth market. (Sider Fusion)

汽車業的完美理想：不依賴中國稀土的馬達（1/2）

 Recently the New York Times reported the following:

An Auto Holy Grail: Motors That Don’t Rely on Chinese Rare Earths (1/2)

Weary of being captive to geopolitics, car companies are looking for ways to replace powerful rare-earth magnets in electric motors.

By Jack Ewing - Reporting from Sunnyvale, Calif., and New York

Nov. 24, 2025

Stunned by frequent shortages of essential materials from China, automakers in the United States and Europe are quietly trying to reduce or eliminate the need for materials that have become entangled in superpower rivalries.

The companies are exploring technologies and exotic materials that could replace magnets made with rare-earth metals that are used in dozens of parts in cars and trucks of all kinds. They include components like windshield wiper motors and the mechanisms that allow seats to be adjusted.

Magnets made with the rare-earth elements neodymium, dysprosium and terbium are especially important for the motors that move electric vehicles and hybrids, which are becoming more popular.

China dominates mining and processing of most rare earths and has used its near monopoly as a diplomatic weapon. This year, it imposed controls on exports of some of those materials in apparent retaliation for President Trump’s stiff tariffs on Chinese goods.

The recent instability in rare-earth supplies is a much bigger threat to automakers than in the past. It has given new urgency to the search for motors that don’t need rare earths or for materials that would replace them.

BMW’s electric vehicles already use motors that operate without rare earths. Researchers at Northeastern University and other institutions are working to synthesize materials that have promising magnetic properties and are found only in meteorites.

Start-ups have begun developing new kinds of motors and other technologies. And the Department of Energy is encouraging that work, despite the Trump administration’s rollback of other forms of support for electric vehicles.

Many of these efforts won’t bear fruit for years. And substitute technologies like those used by BMW can be more expensive or have other drawbacks. For the time being, the industry remains extremely vulnerable to shortages that could bring assembly lines to a halt.

“This isn’t a challenge you can overcome in a year,” said Gracelin Baskaran, director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

This month, Beijing suspended some of its rare-earth export controls as part of an agreement with the Trump administration. But controls remain a threat as tensions between the United States and China continue.

“There is now sort of a détente,” said Tom Moerenhout, who leads the Critical Materials Initiative at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “But the question is not will there be a next event where rare earths are being weaponized, but rather when.”

The auto industry has reckoned with rare-earth shortages before. Beginning in 2010, China choked off supplies, leading to a dispute with the Obama administration.

The coronavirus pandemic, which caused severe shortages of semiconductors and other components, reinforced the dangers of depending too much on a few suppliers or vendors from one country. As a result, many automakers began looking for alternatives.

Carmakers can use two strategies to keep their assembly lines running. They can find rare earths outside China, or they can switch to components that don’t require those metals.

General Motors is pursuing the first strategy with MP Materials, an American company that is mining rare earths in California. MP is also building a facility in Texas to refine the materials and use them to make magnets. Under an agreement announced in 2021, G.M. has promised to buy most of the output of the Texas factory for use in Cadillacs and Chevrolets. MP also has agreements with Apple and the Defense Department.

Such agreements provide companies like MP guaranteed revenue, something that wasn’t available to rare-earth companies and processors that went bankrupt after previous crises when prices fell so much that they couldn’t compete with Chinese suppliers. MP acquired its site in California from one such bankrupt company.

But there is also a risk to automakers like G.M. They may wind up paying more than other manufacturers if shortages ease and prices fall again.

(to be continued)

Translation

汽車業的完美理想：不依賴中國稀土的馬達（1/2）

汽車公司厭倦了受制於地緣政治，正在尋找替代馬達中強力稀土磁鐵的方法。

由於中國關鍵原材料頻繁短缺所震驚，美國和歐洲的汽車製造商正悄悄地嘗試減少或消除對這些捲入超級大國競爭的材料的需求。

這些公司正在探索能夠取代稀土金屬磁鐵的技術和特殊材料。這些磁鐵被廣泛應用於各種汽車和貨車的數十個零件中，例如擋風玻璃水撥和調較座椅裝置。

釹、鏑和铽等稀土元素製成的磁鐵對於電動車和混合動力車的馬達尤其重要，而電動車和混合動力車正變得越來越普及。

中國主導大部分稀土的開採和加工，並利用其近乎壟斷的地位作為外交武器。今年，中國對部分稀土材料的出口實施了管制，顯然是為了報復特朗普總統對中國商品加徵的高額關稅。

近期稀土供應的不穩定性對汽車製造商的威脅遠超過以往。這使得尋找無需稀土的馬達或替代材料變得更加迫切。

BMW的電動車已經使用了無需稀土的馬達。東北大學和其他機構的研究人員正在努力合成出一種具有優異磁性且僅在隕石中見過的材料。

一些初創公司已經開始研發新型馬達和其他相關技術。儘管特朗普政府削減了對電動車的其他支持，但美國能源部仍在鼓勵這項工作。

許多此類努力需要數年時間才能見效。而且，像BMW使用的替代技術可能成本更高，或者有其他缺陷。目前，該行業仍極易受到短缺的影響，一旦短缺，生產線就可能停工

華盛頓戰略與國際研究中心關鍵礦產安全計劃主任Gracelin Baskaran表示:「這不是在一年就能克服的挑戰」。

本月，北京根據與特朗普政府達成的協議，暫停了部分稀土出口管制。但由於美中之間的緊張關係持續存在，管制仍在構成威脅。

哥倫比亞大學全球能源政策中心關鍵材料倡議負責人Tom Moerenhout 表示: 「現在情況有所緩和」; 「但問題不在於是否還會出現稀土武器化的事件，而在於何時會發生」。

汽車業先前曾經面臨稀土短缺問題。 2010年，中國切斷了稀土供應，導致與奧巴馬政府發生爭端。

新冠疫情導致半導體和其他零件嚴重短缺，凸顯了過度依賴少數國家供應商的風險。因此，許多汽車製造商開始尋找替代方案。

汽車製造商可以採取兩種策略來維持生產線運作：一是在中國以外地區尋找稀土；二是改用不需要這些金屬的零件。

通用汽車正與美國公司MP Materials合作，採用第一種策略。 MP Materials在加州開採稀土礦，並在德克薩斯州建造一座工廠，用於提煉稀土並將其用於製造磁鐵。根據2021年宣布的一項協議，通用汽車承諾購買該德州工廠的大部分產品，用於Cadillacs和Chevrolets車型。 MP Materials也與蘋果公司和美國國防部達成了合作協議。

此類協議為像MP這樣的公司提供了穩定的收入保障，而先前的稀土公司和加工商卻無法獲得這種保障。在先前的危機中，由於價格暴跌，它們無力與中國供應商競爭，最終破產倒閉。 MP位於加州的廠址正是從一家破產公司手中收購的。

但通用汽車等汽車製造商也面臨風險。如果短缺緩解，價格再次下跌，它們最終可能需要支付高於其他製造商的價格。

（待續）

人工智能熱潮正在推動經濟發展。如果它失敗會怎樣？ （3/3）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

The A.I. Boom Is Driving the Economy. What Happens if It Falters? (3/3)

A windfall for companies that build data centers and their suppliers is overshadowing weakness in other industries.

By Ben Casselman and Sydney Ember

(continue)

Uneven Effects

That abundance isn’t reaching everyone, however, or everywhere. The companies developing leading A.I. models, like OpenAI and Google, are mostly headquartered in the San Francisco area, and their highest paid employees are concentrated in the large “superstar” cities that have been the winners in the 21st century economy.

Investments in A.I. infrastructure are far more spread-out, but the benefits are much less certain. Some of the largest data centers are being built in rural areas, where land is cheap and jobs have been disappearing for decades. Local leaders in many communities have embraced data centers and other A.I. infrastructure as a way to diversify their economies and get a toehold in a burgeoning industry.

But data centers voraciously consume water and electricity, which can drive up costs for residents. And while they create jobs during construction, they employ relatively few people once they are operational, turning the sprawling campuses into humming ghost towns. Microsoft said, for instance, that its data centers employ about 50 people per building over a 24-hour period.

Many big data-center companies, known as “hyperscalers,” have won generous tax incentives from local communities, limiting their benefit to residents. And while local leaders argue the projects will attract other technology companies, it isn’t clear that will actually happen, said Mr. Muro, the Brookings economist.

“Some places have gotten confused by a lot of messaging from the hyperscalers that this is the beginning of a regional technology economy,” he said. Instead, he added, “These become just massive buildings with a couple hundred jobs, which aren’t terrible, but aren’t going to really move the dial.”

Still, many economists and industry experts say the infrastructure-building phase of the A.I. boom has room to run. Even as data center capacity expands at a record pace, demand is growing just as quickly, and companies are reporting yearslong backlogs. The demand for infrastructure is likely to keep growing, said Paul Ashworth, the chief North America economist at Capital Economics.

“It’s really only just beginning to get going,” he said. “The stock market may be close to a bubble,” he added, but there is little sign that the industry has bought too many chips or built too many data centers.

For these investments to pay off, however, artificial intelligence will need to fulfill its promise not just as a useful tool, but as a transformational technology that leads to huge increases in productivity.

If that doesn’t happen?

“A lot of the investment that has been put in place might turn out to be unjustified,” said Mr. Bhave, the Bank of America economist.

Translation

人工智能熱潮正在推動經濟發展。如果它失敗會怎樣？ （3/3）

數據中心建設公司及其供應商獲得的意外之財掩蓋了其他行業的疲軟。

（繼續）

影響不平均

然而，這種繁榮並沒有惠及所有人或所有地方。開發領先人工智能模式的公司，例如 OpenAI 和 Google，大多總部設在舊金山地區，其薪資最高的員工也集中在那些在 21 世紀經濟中脫穎而出的「超級明星」城市。

對人工智能基礎設施的投資分佈更為分散，但收益卻遠沒有那麼確定。一些最大的數據中心建在農村地區，那裡的土地價格低廉，幾十年來就業機會一直在消失。許多社區的地方領導人已將數據中心和其他人工智能基礎設施視為實現經濟多元化, 並在蓬勃發展的行業中佔據一席位的一種方法。

但數據中心耗水耗電巨大，會推高居民的生活成本。雖然數據中心在建設期間能創造就業機會，但一旦投入運營，員工人數卻相對較少，龐大的園區最終會變成空蕩蕩的「鬼城」。例如，微軟表示，其數據中心每棟大樓每24小時僅僱用約50名員工。

許多大型數據中心公司，即所謂的“超大規模雲端服務商”，都從當地社區獲得了豐厚的稅收優惠，這使得居民受益有限。布魯金斯學會經濟學家Muro先生表示，儘管當地領導人認為這些計劃將吸引其他科技公司，但這種情況是否真的會發生尚不清楚。

他說:「有些地方被超大規模雲端服務商的宣傳誤導，以為這是區域科技經濟的開端」。他並反而說: 「這些最終只會變成擁有幾百個工作崗位的大型建築，這雖然不算糟糕，但並不會真正帶來任何改變」。

儘管如此，許多經濟學家和產業專家仍然認為，人工智能熱潮的基礎建設階段仍有發展空間。儘管數據中心容量正以創紀錄的速度擴張，但需求也以同樣的速度成長，企業紛紛表示訂單積壓已達數年之久。Capital Economics北美首席經濟學Paul Ashworth表示，對基礎設施的需求可能會持續成長。

他說:「這實際上才剛剛開始」。 他補充道:「股市可能接近泡沫」，但幾乎沒有跡象表明該行業已經購買了過多的晶片或建造了過多的數據中心。

然而，要使這些投資獲得回報，人工智能不僅需要兌現其作為有用工具的承諾，更需要兌現其作為變革性技術的承諾，從而大幅提高生產力。

如果這種情況沒有發生呢？

美國銀行經濟學家Bhave先生說:「許多已經投入的資金, 最終可能會被證明是不值得的」。

              So, the U.S. economy in 2025 is split into two: Everything tied to artificial intelligence is booming. Just about everything else is not. It’s a two-track economy. This A.I. investments are rippling outward, propping up pieces of the economy outside the traditional technology sector. For example, Caterpillar, typically associated with AI with its bulldozers, Johnson Controls which is associated with cooling and fire-suppression systems, and Eaton Corp., which makes power-management systems. That abundance isn’t reaching everyone. For the AI investment boom to pay off, however, artificial intelligence will need to fulfill its promise not just as a useful tool, but as a transformational technology that leads to huge increases in productivity. Apparently, all these only time will tell.

人工智能熱潮正在推動經濟發展。如果它失敗會怎樣？ （2/3）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

The A.I. Boom Is Driving the Economy. What Happens if It Falters? (2/3)

A windfall for companies that build data centers and their suppliers is overshadowing weakness in other industries.

By Ben Casselman and Sydney Ember

(continue)

Lower-income households haven’t seen the benefit of the stock-market run-up. But they could still be hurt by its reversal. If wealthy Americans spend less on restaurant meals, vacations and luxury goods, that could lead to job losses in the service sector.

“If you see a pullback in spending in leisure, in hospitality, in that top cohort, that has knock-on effects,” said Michael Reid, an economist at RBC Capital Markets. “That’s where I wonder about a downward spiral in the labor market.”

Ripple Effects

For now, the boom — and its lift to the broader economy — shows little sign of letting up. U.S. companies spent more than $60 billion on computer equipment in the second quarter, up 45 percent from a year earlier. They spent another $10 billion on data center construction, up 35 percent. Artificial intelligence probably accounts for most of that growth, economists and industry experts say.

Those investments are rippling outward, propping up pieces of the economy outside the traditional technology sector. Caterpillar, typically associated with its bulldozers and backhoes, has seen a surge in sales of its turbines and power-generation equipment, which are used in data centers. Johnson Controls, another industrial conglomerate, has benefited from demand for its cooling and fire-suppression systems. Eaton Corp., which makes power-management systems, has a growing backlog of projects waiting for its equipment.

The companies are betting on that growth to continue. Eaton is investing more than $1 billion to expand its manufacturing capacity to meet soaring demand, and this month it said it was spending $9.5 billion to acquire Boyd Thermal, which makes cooling equipment used in data centers.

“We are in the very early innings of the A.I. build out,” Paulo Ruiz, the chief executive officer of Eaton, said in an interview.

The two-track nature of the economy is especially clear in the construction industry, which has been battered by high interest rates and tariffs. Nonresidential construction spending fell in August, continuing its downward trend. Home building is well below its pandemic-era peak.

Yet even as the construction industry’s momentum has stalled, data center construction has swelled. That has also fueled the construction of infrastructure required to power the data centers and distribute information. The American Cement Association released a report in June that estimated that A.I. data centers would use approximately one million metric tons of cement over the next three years.

Data center construction is “the only real driver of nonresidential construction spending growth in America,” said Anirban Basu, the chief economist at Associated Builders and Contractors, a trade group.

“If one is looking for what’s growing nonresidential spending, it’s data centers and attendant investment in power generation and distribution,” he said.

The surge has also buoyed the contractors who work on the components of data centers. Associated Builders and Contractors recently said that about one in seven of its members were under contract to work on data centers.

Chuck Goodrich, the chief executive of Gaylor Electric, an electrical contractor based in Indianapolis, said 50 to 60 percent of his business was now tied to data center construction. He estimated Gaylor Electric’s revenue would increase about 30 percent this year, to $1 billion, and grow another 20 percent next year, largely because of the frenzy around data centers.

“From a biblical perspective, we happen to be living the life of abundance,” he said.

(to be continued)

Translation

人工智能熱潮正在推動經濟發展。如果它失敗會怎樣？（2/3）

數據中心建設公司及其供應商獲得的意外之財掩蓋了其他行業的疲軟。

（繼續）

低收入家庭尚未享受股市上漲的好處。但股市的逆轉仍可能對他們造成損害。如果富裕的美國人減少在餐廳用餐、度假和奢侈品上的支出，可能會導致服務業的失業。

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場經濟學家Michael Reid表示。「如果你看到休閒娛樂、酒店服務以及高收入人群的支出減少，這將產生連鎖反應」; 「我擔心勞動力市場會出現螺旋式下滑」。

連鎖反應

目前來看，這股熱潮 - 及其對整體經濟的提振作用 - 似乎沒有減弱的跡象。美國企業第二季在電腦設備上的支出超過600億美元，較去年同期成長45%。此外，他們在數據中心建設方面的支出也高達100億美元，年增35%。經濟學家和產業專家表示，人工智能可能是推動這一成長的主要因素。

這些投資正向外向外擴散，支撐著傳統科技業以外的其他經濟領域。通常以推土機和挖土機聞名的Caterpillar公司，其用於數據中心的渦輪機和發電設備的銷售也出現了激增。另一家工業集團Johnson Controls則受惠於對其冷卻和消防系統的需求。生產電源管理系統的Eaton Corp也積壓了大量等待其設備的訂單。

這些公司都押注這種成長動能將持續下去。Eaton公司正在投資超過10億美元擴大產能以滿足不斷增長的需求，本月宣布將斥資95億美元收購Boyd Thermal公司，該公司生產用於數據中心的冷卻設備。

Eaton公司執行長Paulo Ruiz在一次採訪中表示： “我們正處於人工智能建設的初期階段。”

經濟的雙軌特徵在建築業尤為明顯，該行業受到高利率和關稅的重創。 8月非住宅建築支出下降，延續了下滑趨勢。住宅建設遠低於疫情期間的高峰。

然而，即便建築業的成長勢頭停滯，數據中心建設卻蓬勃發展。這也推動了為數據中心供電和資訊傳輸所需的基礎設施建設。美國水泥協會6月發佈的報告估計，未來三年人工智能數據中心將消耗約100萬噸水泥。

美國建築承包商協會（Associated Builders and Contractors）首席經濟學家Anirban Basu表示，數據中心建設是「美國非住宅建築支出成長的唯一真正驅動力」。

他說:「如果要尋找非住宅支出成長的驅動力，那就是數據中心以及相關的發電和配電投資」。

這股熱潮也提振了數據中心組件的承包商。美國建築承包商協會（Associated Builders and Contractors）近期表示，其會員中約有七分之一承接了數據中心的建設項目。

總部位於印第安納波利斯的電氣承包商Gaylor Electric執行長Chuck Goodrich表示，該公司50%到60%的業務現在都與數據中心建設相關。他估計，Gaylor Electric今年的營收將成長約30%，達到10億美元，明年還將成長20%，這主要得益於數據中心的熱潮。

他說:「從聖經的角度來看，我們恰好過著富足的生活」。

（待續）