世界銀行將它升級為“高收入國家”

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

World Bank upgraded it to a 'high-income country'

Business Insider - Huileng Tan

Tue, July 2, 2024 at 9:56 p.m. PDT·2 min read

Russia's economy has defied sanctions in the two years since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022 — so much so that the World Bank is now classifying Russia as a "high-income country."

On Monday, the World Bank announced it has upgraded Russia from an upper-middle-income country to a high-income country, according to a report from the financial institution's economists.

"Economic activity in Russia was influenced by a large increase in military-related activity in 2023," World Bank economists wrote in their report.

Last year, Russians earned $14,250 per person on a gross national income basis.

The World Bank's upgrade confirms reports from Russia that suggest the growth is primarily driven by wartime activities that generate demand for military goods and services, making some sectors winners in Russia's wartime economy.

Russia's trade jumped by nearly 7% last year, while activities in the financial sector and construction grew by 6.6% and 3.6%, respectively.

This boosted Russia's real GDP — which is economic growth adjusted for inflation — by 3.6%.

The development has made some poor Russians better off financially, complicating any calculus over how to end the war.

The World Bank upgraded seven countries, downgraded West Bank and Gaza

Other than Russia, the World Bank also upgraded Bulgaria and Palau from upper-middle-income to high-income countries. Their upgrades came after several years of post-pandemic growth.

Ukraine also moved up from a lower-middle-income country to upper-middle-income country as real GDP grew 5.3% — reversing a steep 28.8% slump in 2022.

"While Ukraine's economy was significantly impaired by Russia's invasion, real growth in 2023 was driven by construction activity (24.6%), reflecting a sizable increase in investment spending (52.9%) supporting Ukraine's reconstruction effort in the wake of ongoing destruction," the World Bank added.

In all, the World Bank upgraded the classification of seven countries this year and downgraded just one country: West Bank and Gaza.

West Bank and Gaza became an upper-middle-income country in 2023, but its economy was significantly impacted by its war with Israel.

"The conflict in the Middle East began in October 2023, and while the impact on West Bank and Gaza was limited to the fourth quarter, its scale was nonetheless sufficient to lead to a 9.2% drop in nominal GDP," the World Bank economists wrote. West Bank and Gaza's GDP declined 5.5% in real terms.

Translation

自從莫斯科在 2022 年 2 月入侵烏克蘭以來，俄羅斯經濟在兩年內一直抗衡制裁，以至世界銀行現在將俄羅斯列為「高收入國家」。

根據世界銀行經濟學家的報告，世界銀行週一宣布將俄羅斯從中高收入國家升級為高收入國家。

世界銀行經濟學家在報告中寫道： “2023年，俄羅斯的經濟活動受到軍事相關活動大幅增加的影響。”

去年，以國民總收入計算，俄羅斯人均收入為 14,250 美元。

世界銀行的升級證實了俄羅斯的報告，即成長主要是由戰時活動推動的，這些活動產生了對軍事商品和服務的需求，使某些行業成為俄羅斯戰時經濟的贏家。

去年俄羅斯的貿易成長了近7%，而金融部門和建築業的活動分別成長了6.6%和3.6%。

這使得俄羅斯的實際 GDP（扣除通貨膨脹因素後的經濟成長）增加了 3.6%。

這一事態發展使一些貧窮的俄羅斯人的經濟狀況有所改善，使有關如何結束戰爭的計算變得更加複雜。

世界銀行上調七個國家評級，下調西岸和加沙評級

除俄羅斯外，世界銀行還將保加利亞和帛琉從中高收入國家升級為高收入國家。他們的升級是在疫情後幾年的成長之後到來的。

烏克蘭也從中低收入國家躍升為中高收入國家，實質 GDP 成長 5.3%，扭轉了 2022 年 28.8% 的大幅下滑。

世界銀行銀行補充道: 「雖然烏克蘭的經濟因俄羅斯的入侵而受到嚴重損害，但2023 年的實際增長是由建築活動(24.6%) 推動的，反映出支持烏克蘭在持續破壞後的重建工作的投資支出大幅增加(52.9% )」。

世界銀行今年總共升級了七個國家的評級，僅下調了一個國家的評級：約旦河西岸和加沙。

約旦河西岸和加沙於2023年成為中上收入國家，但其經濟因與以色列的戰爭而受到重大影響。

世界銀行經濟學家寫道：「中東衝突始於2023年10月，雖然對約旦河西岸和加薩地帶的影響僅限於第四季度，但其規模仍足以導致毛額GDP下降9.2%」 。約旦河西岸和加薩的 GDP 實際下降 5.5%。

              So, Russia's economy has defied sanctions in the two years since Moscow invades Ukraine and now is classified as a "high-income country." I am wondering how long this war time economy can sustain itself before the down side on the country is felt.

 

Note:

1. Nominal GDP is GDP in current prices, without adjustment for inflation. Current price estimates of GDP are obtained by expressing values of all goods and services produced in the current reporting period.