中國警覺地關注普京和金正恩建立新的「聯盟」 (2/2)

Recently CNN New on-line reported the following:

China is watching warily as Putin and Kim forge new ‘alliance’ (2/2)

Analysis by Nectar Gan, CNN

23 June 2024·6-min read

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The new treaty comes amid heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula, where Kim has ramped up fiery rhetoric and scrapped a longstanding policy of seeking peaceful reunification with South Korea. After the end of the Korean War in 1953, a formal peace treaty was never signed between the two Koreas, leaving them technically in a state of war.

But the political message of the pact is loud and clear. Driven by a shared hostility to the US and its allies, the two autocratic nations are seeking to undermine and create an alternative to the Western-led global order – a goal shared by China.

Speaking after his meeting with Kim, Putin rankled against what he called “the imperialist policy of the United States and its satellites.”

A month ago, Putin and Xi delivered a similar swipe at the US during the Russian leader’s visit to Beijing. In a sweeping joint statement, the two “old friends” took aim at what they described as a global security system defined by US-backed military alliances – and pledged to work together to counter it.

Western observers have warned against a loose but growing coordination of interests among China, Russia, North Korea and Iran – something one senior US military commander recently likened to a new “axis of evil.”

As Moscow and Pyongyang deepen their alliance, Beijing would be cautious to keep a distance, Liu said, adding that “China certainly doesn’t want to be seen as part of a new Axis.”

But despite the absence of Xi, China would have been the elephant in the room throughout Putin and Kim’s meeting.

“Any such meeting will also include discussion of China,” said Edward Howell, a lecturer in politics at the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom, who focuses on the Korean Peninsula.

“Russia will know full well that China does not want to be left out of any substantial negotiations involving North Korea, not least since China is far more important – compared to Russia – to North Korea.”

Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Washington-based Stimson Center think tank, said China doesn’t feel it can control the pace and extent of the deepening engagement between Russia and North Korea.

“But they do know that China plays an irreplaceable role for both Russia and North Korea,” she said.

China remains the largest trade partner to both Russia and North Korea, providing a crucial lifeline to the heavily sanctioned economies. Beijing also lends significant political support and diplomatic cover to the two international pariahs.

“China doesn’t think that an alliance between Russia and North Korea would be a betrayal,” said Liu with the City University of Hong Kong.

“Neither of the two countries has the capacity to betray China. They still need to rely on China despite their alliance.”

Translation

（繼續）

新條約是在朝鮮半島緊張局勢加劇之際達成的，金正恩在半島上發表了激烈的言論，並放棄了長期以來尋求與韓國和平統一的政策。 1953年韓戰結束後，南北韓從未簽署正式和平條約，技術上來說兩國是處於戰爭狀態。

但該協議的政治訊息是響亮而明確的。在對美國及其盟友的共同敵意的驅使下，這兩個獨裁國家正在尋求破壞並創造一種替代西方主導的全球秩序 -  這也是中國的共同目標。

普京在與金正恩會面後發表講話，對他所謂的「美國及其衛星國的帝國主義政策」表示憤怒。

一個月前，普京和習近平在俄羅斯領導人訪問北京期間對美國進行了類似的抨擊。在一份內容廣泛的聯合聲明中，這兩位「老朋友」瞄向了他們所說的由美國支持的軍事聯盟定義的全球安全體系，並承諾共同努力反抗這個體系。

西方觀察家警告中國、俄羅斯、北韓和伊朗之間鬆散但日益增長的利益協調  -  一位美國高級軍事指揮官最近將其比作新的「邪惡軸心」。

Liu 說，隨著莫斯科和平壤加深聯盟，北京將謹慎保持距離，並補充說 「中國當然不希望被視為新軸心國的一部分」。

但儘管習近平缺席，在普京和金正恩的會晤中，中國仍然是個不願提及的棘手問題。

主要研究朝鮮半島問題的英國牛津大學政治學講師 Edward Howell 表示， “任何此類會議都將討論到中國方面” 。

“俄羅斯將非常清楚知道，中國不想被排除在任何涉及朝鮮的重要談判之外，尤其是因為中國對朝鮮來說比俄羅斯重要得多。”

華盛頓智庫 Stimson Center中國計劃主任 Yun Sun 表示，中國認為自己無法控制俄羅斯與北韓深化接觸的速度和程度。

她說: 「但他們確實知道中國對俄羅斯和北韓都發揮著不可替代的作用」。

中國仍然是俄羅斯和北韓最大的貿易夥伴，為這兩個受到嚴厲制裁的經濟體提供了至關重要的生命線。北京也向這兩個被國際疏離的國家提供了重要的政治支持和外交掩護。

香港城市大學的 Liu說： “中國不認為俄羅斯和北韓結盟會是背叛。”

“兩國都沒有能力背叛中國。儘管他們結盟，但他們仍然需要依賴中國。

              So, in a wide-ranging treaty covering political, trade, investment, and security cooperation, North Korea and Russia pledge to use all available means to provide immediate military assistance in the event the other is attacked. The reaction from China as the main political and economic patron for both countries has been very quiet so far. Probably, China is watching and calculating what it should do next.

Note:

1. If you say there is an elephant in the room, you mean that there is an obvious problem or difficult situation that people do not want to talk about.