Recently CNN News on-line reported the following:
China is watching warily as Putin and Kim forge new
‘alliance’ (1/2)
Analysis by Nectar Gan, CNN
23 June 2024·6-min read
Five years ago, Xi Jinping was offered the same open-top ride with Kim when he became the first Chinese leader to visit Pyongyang in 14 years. At the time, the two leaders vowed to strengthen ties and deepen cooperation, but the language paled in comparison with the “breakthrough” new partnership struck by Kim and Putin.
In a wide-ranging treaty spanning political, trade, investment, and security cooperation, North Korea and Russia pledged to use all available means to provide immediate military assistance in the event the other is attacked.
Putin said Russia and North Korea have ramped up ties to a “new level.” Kim, meanwhile, called the new “alliance” a “watershed moment” in bilateral relations.
The new landmark defense pact agreed by the two nuclear-armed regimes rattled the United States and its Asian allies. Japan voiced “grave concerns” about Putin’s vow not to rule out cooperation with Pyongyang on military technology. South Korea responded by convening an emergency national security meeting and said it would now consider sending arms to Ukraine.
In contrast, the reaction from China, the main political and economic patron for both Russia and North Korea, has been all but muted.
A spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry declined to comment on the treaty, calling it a bilateral matter between Russia and North Korea.
Beneath the official reticence, however, China is likely watching warily, analysts say.
China ‘aims to control the situation’
The deepening ties between two wayward autocrats risk
creating new uncertainty for Xi, who needs peace and stability in Northeast
Asia as he grapples with a raft of domestic challenges, especially the slowing
economy.
Beijing is worried that Moscow’s assistance to Pyongyang – especially on military technology – would further enable and embolden the erratic Kim regime, which has drastically accelerated the buildup of nuclear weapons and missile programs, said Liu Dongshu, an assistant professor focusing on Chinese politics at the City University of Hong Kong.
“When it comes to the North Korea issue, China aims to control the situation and prevent escalation, but it also does not want North Korea to completely collapse either” – a scenario that Beijing fears would allow the US to extend its control right to its doorstep, Liu said.
Previously, Russia had been largely aligned with China on the issue, but its desperate need for North Korea to support its grinding war in Ukraine risks undermining the delicate balance.
Russia has received more than 10,000 shipping containers – the equivalent of 260,000 metric tons of munitions or munitions-related material – from North Korea since September, according to a US statement in February. Both Russia and North Korea have rejected the claim.
And while the US has accused China of providing Russia with dual-use goods that bolster the warring nation’s military industrial complex, Beijing has refrained from offering direct military assistance to Putin and has steered clear of supporting Kim’s nuclear and missile programs.
“If Putin provides more support to North Korea on nuclear issues, including some technical assistance, it will become more difficult for China to control the situation on the Korean Peninsula,” Liu said.
The mutual defense pact signed by Kim and Putin harks back to a 1961 treaty between North Korea and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. That deal was replaced with one that offered much weaker security assurances after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
But North Korea’s mutual defense treaty with China, also signed in 1961, remains in place after multiple renewals.
The Sino-North Korea Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance is the only formal military alliance treaty China has signed with another country, though Beijing doesn’t admit it as such and remains deliberately vague about whether China is obliged to automatically come to North Korea’s defense when a war breaks out.
Similarly, it remains unclear what Russia and North Korea are willing – and able – to do for one another under the new defense pact.
(to be continued)
Translation
上週，當俄羅斯總統普京 與朝鮮東道主金正恩一起乘坐豪華平治汽車駛過平壤有人羣排列的街道時，兩位獨裁者最重要的伙伴正在數百英里外的北京旁觀著。
五年前，習近平成為 14 年來第一位訪問平壤的中國領導人，並獲得了與金正恩一起乘坐相同的敞篷車。當時，兩國領導人誓言要加強關係、深化合作，但與金正恩和普京達成的「突破性」新夥伴關係相比，那些措辭顯得蒼白無力。
在一項涵蓋政治、貿易、投資和安全合作的廣泛條約中，北韓和俄羅斯承諾，如果對方受到攻擊，將使用一切可用手段立即提供軍事援助。
普京表示，俄羅斯和北韓的關係已提升至「新水平」。同時，金正恩稱新的「聯盟」是雙邊關係的「分水嶺」。
兩個核武政權達成的具有里程碑意義的新防禦協定, 令美國及其亞洲盟友感到不安。日本對普京誓言不排除與平壤在軍事技術方面進行合作表示「嚴重關切」。韓國對此作出回應，召開緊急國家安全會議，並表示現在將考慮向烏克蘭提供武器。
相較之下，身為俄羅斯和北韓主要政治和經濟贊助人的中國的反應卻一直很平靜。
中國外交部發言人拒絕對條約發表評論，稱這是俄羅斯和北韓之間的雙邊事務。
然而，分析人士表示，在官方沉默的背後，中國可能會保持警惕。
中國 “旨望控制局勢”
兩個任性的獨裁者之間日益加深的關係, 可能會為習近平帶來新的不確定性，習近平在應對一系列國內挑戰，特別是經濟放緩的同時，需要一個和平及穩定的東北亞。
香港城市大學研究中國政治的助理教授 Liu Dongshu 表示，北京擔心莫斯科對平壤的援助，尤其是軍事技術方面的援助，將進一步激發和鼓勵行為難以預期金正恩政權，從而大大加速其核武器和導彈計劃的發展。
「在北韓問題上，中國的目標是控制局勢、防止事態升級，但也不希望北韓徹底崩潰」 - Liu 說北京擔心北韓崩潰會讓美國將控制權擴大到其門口。
此前，俄羅斯在這個問題上基本上與中國保持一致，但俄羅斯迫切需要北韓支持其在烏克蘭的激烈戰爭，這可能會破壞這種微妙的平衡。
根據美國 2 月的聲明，自 9 月以來，俄羅斯已從北韓接收了超過 10,000 個貨櫃，相當於 26 萬噸彈藥或彈藥相關材料。俄羅斯和北韓均否認了這說法。
儘管美國指責中國向俄羅斯提供軍民兩用商品，以增強俄國的軍事工業綜合體，但北京並未向普京提供直接軍事援助，也避免支持金正恩的核子計劃和飛彈計劃。
Liu 說: 「如果普京在核問題上向北韓提供更多支持，包括一些技術援助，中國掌控朝鮮半島局勢將變得更加困難」。
金正恩和普京簽署的共同防禦條約可以追溯到1961年冷戰期間由北韓和蘇聯簽署的條約。蘇聯解體後，該協議被安全保證弱得多的協議所取代。
但同樣於 1961 年簽署的北韓與中國的共同防禦條約在多次續約後仍然有效。
《中朝友好合作互助條約》是中國與其他國家簽署的唯一正式軍事同盟條約，儘管北京不承認這一點，中國並且故意含糊其辭有關在當戰爭爆發時是否有義務自動幫助北韓的防禦。
同樣，目前還不清楚俄羅斯和北韓根據新的國防協議願意及可以為彼此做些什麼。
（待續）
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