中國進口萎縮，出口增長放緩令經濟前景黯淡

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China's shrinking imports, slower exports growth darken economic outlook

Tue, May 9, 2023 at 4:33 a.m. GMT+1

By Joe Cash

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's imports contracted sharply in April, while exports rose at a slower pace, reinforcing signs of feeble domestic demand despite the lifting of COVID curbs and heaping pressure on an economy already struggling in the face of cooling global growth.

China's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter thanks to robust services consumption, but factory output has lagged and the latest trade numbers point to a long road to regaining the pre-pandemic momentum at home.

Inbound shipments to the world's second-largest economy fell 7.9% year on year in April, extending the 1.4% decline seen a month earlier, while exports grew 8.5%, easing from the 14.8% surge in March, customs data showed on Tuesday.

Economists in a Reuters poll had predicted no growth in imports and an 8.0% increase in exports.

"At the beginning of this year, one would assume that imports will easily surpass 2022 levels following the reopening, but that hasn't been the case," said Xu Tianchen, an economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

"While China's post-COVID rebound has been swift and sharp, it has been largely self-contained and not felt by the rest of the world," he added.

Government officials have repeatedly warned of a "severe" and "complicated" external environment in the wake of mounting recession risks for many of China's key trading partners.

The sharp deterioration in last month's trade flows will only renew worries about the state of external demand and risks posed to the domestic economy, especially given the frail recovery from a year earlier when inbound and outbound shipments were severely disrupted by China's COVID-19 restrictions.

"Given the gloomy outlook for external demand, we think exports will decline further before bottoming out later this year," said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics in a note.

The data appeared to push Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stocks lower, although global factors were also at play. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was down 1.11% in the early afternoon while China's blue chip CSI300 Index was 0.26% weaker, after climbing 0.5% before the lunch break.

IMPORT STRESS

The downturn in imports suggests the world economy won't be able to count much on China's domestic engine of growth, and as the nation re-exports some of its imports, it also reinforces the extent of weakness in some of its major trading partner economies.

A 15.3% drop in the import of semiconductors indicate the scale of the demand-pullback in the re-export market for such parts.

Analysts say the sharp global monetary policy tightening campaign of the past 12-18 months and recent Western banking stress remain concerns for revival prospects of both China and worldwide.

Shipments growth to ASEAN - a block of Southeast Asian countries - slowed to 4.5% in April from 35.4% last month. The region is China's largest export partner.

Other recent data also showed South Korean exports to China, a leading indicator of China's imports, were down 26.5% in April, continuing 10 consecutive months of decline.

China's coal imports fell in April from a 15-month high in the prior month, snapping back as demand weakens in Asian giant. Imports of copper - a proxy for global growth - and natural gas were also down in the same period.

The recent official manufacturing purchasing managers' index for April showed new export orders contracting sharply, underlining the challenge facing Chinese policymakers and businesses hoping for a robust post-COVID economic recovery.

China's first quarter GDP data last month, while offering some relief, also raised doubts about the demand outlook due to property market weakness, slowing prices and surging bank savings.

The government, which has stepped up a range of policy support measures, is aiming for a modest GDP growth target of around 5% for this year, after badly missing the 2022 goal.

"The global economy is deteriorating and will weaken China's manufacturing sector," said Iris Pang, chief China economist at ING.

"It is looking more likely that, in response, the government will step in to support the manufacturing sector's labour market through fiscal stimulus."

Translation

北京（路透社）- 中國 4 月份進口大幅收縮，而出口增長放緩，這加劇了國內需求疲軟的跡象，儘管解除了 COVID 限制措施，疲軟給本已在全球經濟增長降溫中苦苦掙扎的經濟施加了巨大壓力。

由於強勁的服務消費，中國第一季度經濟增長快於預期，但工廠產出滯後，最新的貿易數據表明國內要恢復大流行前的勢頭還有很長的路要走。

海關數據周二顯示，4 月份世界第二大經濟體的入境出貨量同比下降 7.9%，延續一個月前 1.4% 的跌幅，而出口增長 8.5%，低於 3 月份 14.8% 的激增。

在路透社調查 的經濟學家此前預計進口不會增長，而出口將增長 8.0%。

經濟學人智庫的經濟學家 Xu Tianchen說:“今年年初，人們會認為重新開放後,進口將會輕鬆超過 2022 年的水平，但事實並非如此” 。

他補充說： “雖然中國在 COVID 後的反彈迅速而急遽，但基本上是自給自足的，世界其他地區沒有感受到。”

隨著中國許多主要貿易夥伴的經濟衰退風險不斷增加，政府官員一再警告說，外部環境“嚴峻”和“複雜”。

上個月貿易流量的急劇惡化只會再次引發人們對外部需求狀況和對國內經濟構成風險的擔憂，尤其是考慮到去年同期的複蘇乏力，當時中國的 COVID-19 限制措施嚴重擾亂了進出境運輸。

Capital Economics 的中國經濟學家 Zichun Huang在一份報告中表示: “鑑於外部需求前景黯淡，我們認為出口將在今年晚些時候觸底之前, 會進一步下滑” 。

該數據似乎推低了香港和中國大陸股市，儘管全球因素也在發揮作用。 香港恆生指數下午早些時候下跌 1.11%，而中國藍籌滬深 300 指數在午休前上漲 0.5% 後下跌 0.26%。

進口壓力

進口下滑表明世界經濟將不能過多依賴中國的國內增長引擎，而且隨著中國將部分進口商品轉口，這也加劇了其一些主要貿易夥伴經濟體的疲軟程度。

半導體進口下降 15.3% 表明此類部件的再出口市場需求回落的規模。

分析人士表示，過去 12 至 18 個月全球貨幣政策的急劇收緊運動, 以及近期西方銀行業的壓力仍然令人擔憂中國和全球的復蘇前景。

4 月份對東盟（東南亞國家組合）的出貨量增長從上個月的 35.4% 放緩至 4.5%。 該地區是中國最大的出口夥伴。

其他近期數據還顯示，作為中國進口領先指標的韓國對中國出口在 4 月份下降了 26.5%，連續 10 個月下降。

中國 4 月份的煤炭進口量從上個月的 15 個月高位回順，因這亞洲巨人的需求減弱而迅速回落。 銅 - 作為全球增長的代表 - 和天然氣的進口在同一時期也有所下降。

最近公佈的 4 月份官方製造業採購經理人指數顯示，新出口訂單大幅收縮，突顯出希望在 COVID 後實現強勁經濟復甦的中國決策者和企業所面臨的挑戰。

中國上月公佈的第一季度 GDP 數據雖然讓人鬆了一口氣，但由於房地產市場疲軟、價格放緩和銀行儲蓄激增，也引發了對需求前景的疑慮。

在嚴重未能實現 2022 年目標後，政府已加強一系列政策支持措施，今年的 GDP 增長目標定在溫和的 5% 左右。

ING 首席中國經濟學家 Iris Pang 表示: “全球經濟正在惡化，將削弱中國的製造業” 。

“作為回應，政府更有可能通過財政刺激措施介入支持製造業的勞動力市場。”

              So, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers' index showed that the new export orders were contracting sharply, showing the challenge that the Chinese policymakers are facing. China has stepped up a range of supporting measures, and is aiming for a modest GDP growth target of around 5% for this year. The global economy is deteriorating and this will probably take some time to recover.