14 million global jobs will disappear in the next five years - World Economic Forum forecast

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

世界の雇用１４００万人分、今後５年で消滅か　世界経済フォーラム予想

2023.05.01 Mon posted at 15:00 JST

ロンドン（ＣＮＮ） 世界経済フォーラム（ＷＥＦ）は４月３０日に発表した報告書で、景気後退や人工知能（ＡＩ）のような技術の普及に伴い、今後５年のうちに世界で１４００万の雇用が消滅すると予想した。

ＷＥＦは８００社以上を対象に実施した調査をもとに、２０２７年までに６９００万の新規雇用が創出され、８３００万の雇用が失われると予想。実質的に、現在の雇用の２％に当たる１４００万の雇用が失われるとした。

この間は再生可能エネルギーへの切り替えが雇用創出の大きな原動力となる一方で、経済成長の減速やインフレが雇用喪失を引き起こす。

一方で、ＡＩの急速な普及は肯定的な側面と負の側面の両方を伴う。

企業はＡＩツールの導入と管理のために新しい人材を採用する必要が生じ、データアナリストやデータサイエンティスト、機械学習やサイバーセキュリティー専門家の雇用は２７年までに平均で３０％の増加が見込まれる。

半面、ＡＩが普及すれば職種によってはマシンが人に入れ替わるようになり、記録管理職や事務職は２７年までに２６００万人減る可能性があるとＷＥＦは予想。データ入力担当者や役員秘書は最も大きな減少が予想されるとした。

ただ、「チャットＧＰＴ」のようなＡＩツールがセンセーションを巻き起こす中でも、自動化はそれほど急速には普及していない。ＷＥＦが調査対象とした組織では、ビジネス関連の業務のうち現時点でマシンが担っているのは推定３４％にとどまり、２０年からの伸びはごくわずかだった。

今後の普及ペースについても、２０年の時点で経営者は業務の４７％が２５年までに自動化されると見込んでいたが、今回調査では２７年までに見込まれる自動化は４２％と下方修正された。

Translation

London (CNN) - The World Economic Forum (WEF) said in a report released on April 30 that 14 million jobs were expected to disappear globally in the next five years as the economy slowed down and technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) became more prevalent.

Based on a survey of more than 800 companies, the WEF forecasted that by 2027 69 million new jobs would be created and 83 million jobs would be lost. In effect, 14 million jobs, or 2% of current jobs, would be lost.

During this time, the switch to renewable energy could be a major driver of job creation, while slowing economic growth and inflation could cause job losses.

On the other hand, the rapid spread of AI has both positive and negative aspects.

Companies would need to hire new talent to deploy and manage AI tools, and the hiring of data analysts, data scientists, machine learning and cybersecurity specialists could be expected to grow by an average of 30% by 2027.

On the contrary, the spread of AI could lead to machines replacing humans in some occupations, and the number of record keeping and clerical jobs could decrease by 26 million by 2027, according to the WEF. Data entry clerks and executive secretaries were expected to see the biggest reduction.

But while AI tools like Chat GPT had become a sensation, automation had not caught on as quickly. At the organizations surveyed by the WEF, only an estimated 34% of business-related tasks were currently handled by machines, an extremely small increase from 2020.

As for the pace of future adoption, while executives in 2020 had expected 47% of operations would be automated by 2025, in the latest survey, the expected automation by 2027 was revised downward to 42%.

              So, WEF says that 14 million jobs are expected to disappear globally in the next five years as the economy slows down and technologies such as AI becomes more prevalent. I do not think such a prediction has too much meaning.  While AI may increase efficiency and thus save some man power, the designing of new AI also creates more jobs. Also, who can predict the global economy five years from now as the world is full of uncertainty in these days.