美日韓雷達計劃會激怒中國和平壤

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

US-Japan-South Korea Radar Plan Set to Rile China and Pyongyang

Jon Herskovitz

Tue, May 9, 2023 at 10:05 a.m. GMT+1

(Bloomberg) -- The US, Japan and South Korea are seeking to link their radar systems to better track missiles from North Korea and accelerate their response to any launch, a move that has the potential to anger China as well as Pyongyang.

A broad agreement on the plan is likely to come during a joint defense meeting in Singapore in June, the Yomiuri newspaper reported Tuesday, citing government officials it didn’t identify. A recent warming of ties between Seoul and Tokyo, which included a resumption of shuttle diplomacy scuttled for about a dozen years over political tensions, has helped advance the arrangement, it said.

Under the agreement, the command-and-control centers used by the militaries of Japan and South Korea, as well as US forces in both countries, would be fed through the US Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii, the paper said. This would help provide instantaneous data on missile flights, while keeping some political distance between South Korea and Japan, which each have a military alliance with the US but are not mutual allies, it added.

The arrangement would be one of the most tangible efforts to improve joint efforts to keep track of North Korean missiles as a part of the recent rapprochement between Seoul and Tokyo.

But the effort could also could draw the ire of Beijing, which in 2017 objected to South Korea deploying a US defense shield over concerns its powerful radar would allow spying on China’s missile systems. North Korea has decried military cooperation among the US, South Korea and Japan, pledging to bolster its nuclear arsenal to thwart what it sees as hostile intentions from the three adversaries.

Japan’s top government spokesman Hirokazu Matsuno said Tuesday that no decision had been made on concrete steps to put the arrangement into action after it was agreed to in principle at a trilateral summit in November. South Korean Defense Ministry spokesman Jeon Ha-kyu said at a briefing in Seoul that consultations on details are ongoing and no final decisions have been made.

Cooperation among the three countries picked up pace when Yoon Suk Yeol became South Korea’s president a year ago, pledging to take a tough line on North Korea and advancing security policies that better aligned with those of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government.

Since then, the US, South Korea and Japan have trained together, including on joint drills centered on intercepting missiles and hunting submarines — exercises that have taken on greater importance with North Korea deploying new systems to deliver strikes in the air and at sea.

Missile Threat

At the same time, Kim Jong Un’s regime has rolled out new rockets that are quick to deploy, maneuverable in flight and designed to deliver nuclear strikes to all of Japan and South Korea, which host the bulk of US troops in the region.

Yoon has also taken on China, with his government telling Beijing that the possible operation of Lockheed Martin Corp.’s Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense system was a matter of South Korea’s self-defense and “not negotiable.”

The conflict several years ago over Thaad led to economic retaliation from Beijing that shaved an estimated 0.4 percentage points off South Korea’s gross domestic product expansion in 2017. Yoon’s predecessor, President Moon Jae-in ameliorated Beijing’s anger by pledging no new Thaad deployments, no participation in a US missile defense network and no transformation of security cooperation among the US, Japan and South Korea into a military alliance.

“On the Thaad issue, the two sides reached agreement not to allow this issue to be a stumbling block in bilateral cooperation and will strive to make sure that bilateral relations and cooperation will not be affected by this issue,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said at a news briefing in Beijing on Tuesday, referring to Moon’s pledge.

Given their proximity, North Korea’s missiles could deliver a strike on most parts of South Korea in less than five minutes from launch and on Japan within about 15 minutes from launch, highlighting the need for all three to instantaneously track missiles.

But due to the Earth’s curvature, Japan’s radar system has had trouble spotting the initial stages of missile launches from western parts of North Korea. Japan has also had embarrassing incidents where it has lost track of multistage missiles fired from North Korea.

The most recent incident took place last month, when Japan issued an alert to people on the main northern island of Hokkaido about a North Korean missile possibly heading their way. The missile did not threaten the island and the alert was lifted a few minutes later — with the government saying it lost track of the missile on radar and apologizing.

The radar alliance would be under the auspices of a 2014 information-sharing pact among the three countries and involve systems already deployed, Yomiuri said. This could allay any possible protests from China.

“The main focus of the Japan-US-South Korea cooperation is North Korea, but they are showing they won’t hesitate because of China — it has a symbolic aspect,” said Tetsuo Kotani, a professor at Meikai University.

“The arrangement will enable a more accurate grasp of a missile’s trajectory,” he added.

Translation

（彭博社）— 美國、日本和韓國正在尋求將它們的雷達系統連接起來，以更好地跟踪來自朝鮮的導彈，並加快對任何導彈發射的反應，此舉有可能激怒中國和平壤。

讀賣新聞周二援引未具名的政府官員的話稱，6 月份在新加坡舉行的聯合防務會議期間可能會就該計劃達成廣泛協議。 它說，最近首爾和東京之間的關係回暖，其中包括恢復因政治緊張局勢而中斷了大約十幾年的穿梭外交，這有助於推進這一安排。

該報稱，根據協議，日本和韓國軍隊以及駐兩國美軍使用的指揮控制中心,將通過位於夏威夷的美國印太司令部提供信號。 它補充說，這將有助於提供導彈飛行的即時數據，同時在韓國和日本之間保持一定的政治距離，這兩個國家都與美國有軍事同盟，但不是共同的盟友。

作為近期首爾和東京之間和解的一部分，這項安排將是改善追踪朝鮮導彈的聯合努力的最切實的努力之一。

但這一努力也可能會激怒北京，北京在 2017 年反對韓國部署美國的防護盾，擔心其強大的雷達會監視中國的導彈系統。 朝鮮譴責美國、韓國和日本之間的軍事合作，並誓言加強其核武庫以挫敗它認為來自這三個對手的敵對意圖。

日本政府最高發言人 Hirokazu Matsuno 周二表示，在 11 月的三方峰會上原則上同意後，尚未就實施該安排的具體步驟做出決定。 韓國國防部發言人 Jeon Ha-kyu 在首爾的一次簡報會上表示，有關細節的磋商正在進行中，尚未做出最終決定。

三個國家之間的合作, 於一年前 Yoon Suk Yeol 成為韓國總統後加快了步伐，承諾對朝鮮採取強硬立場，並推進與日本首相岸田文雄政府的安全政策更加一致的安全政策。

從那時起，美國、韓國和日本一起訓練，包括以攔截導彈和獵殺潛艇為中心的聯合演習 - 隨著朝鮮部署新系統在空中和海上以進行襲擊，這些演習變得更加重要。

 導彈威脅

與此同時，金正恩政權推出了新型火箭，這些火箭部署迅速，飛行時機動靈活，旨在對日本和韓國進行核打擊,大部分美軍駐紮在該地區。

Yoon 還與中國進行了較量，他的政府告訴北京，可能運作洛克希德馬丁公司的末端高空區域防禦系統是韓國自衛的問題， “沒有商量餘地” 。

幾年前圍繞薩德的爭議導致了北京的經濟報復，據估計，韓國 2017 年的國內生產總值擴張減少了 0.4 個百分點。Yoon 的前任總統文在寅承諾不再部署新的薩德，不參與美國導彈防禦網絡，沒有轉變美日韓之間的安全合成為軍事同盟, 緩和了北京的憤怒。

中國外交部發言人汪文斌, 週二在北京舉行的新聞發布會上提到文在寅的承諾時說: “在薩德問題上，雙方達成共識，不讓該問題成為兩國合作的絆腳石，將努力確保兩國關係與合作不受該問題的影響” 。

鑑於距離很近，朝鮮的導彈可以在發射後不到 5 分鐘內對韓國大部分地區進行打擊，在發射後約 15 分鐘內對日本進行打擊，這凸顯了這三者都需要即時跟踪導彈。

但由於地球的曲率，日本的雷達系統難以發現從朝鮮西部地區發射導彈的初始階段。 日本也曾發生過無法追踪從朝鮮發射的多級導彈的尷尬事件。

最近的一次事件發生在上個月，當時日本向北部主要島嶼北海道的民眾發出警告，稱朝鮮導彈可能正朝他們襲來。 導彈沒有威脅到該島，幾分鐘後警報解除 - 政府表示它在雷達上失去了對導彈的追踪並道歉。

讀賣新聞說，雷達聯盟將受在 2014 年三個國家之間的信息共享協議的主導，並涉及已經部署的系統。 這可能會平息來自中國的任何可能的抗議。

明海大學教授Tetsuo Kotani說: “日美韓合作的主要焦點是朝鮮，但他們表明他們不會因為中國而猶豫 - 這具有像徵意義” 。

他補充說: “這種安排將使我們能夠更準確地掌握導彈的軌跡” 。

So, the US, Japan and South Korea are seeking to link their radar systems to better track missiles from North Korea and accelerate their response to any launch. It seems that these three countries have aligned themselves closer than a few years ago because of the aggressive attitude of North Korea.