達旺：中國夢寐以求的印度寺院小鎮（2/2）

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Tawang: The Indian monastery town coveted by China (2/2)

Anbarasan Ethirajan - BBC News

Wed, March 8, 2023 at 9:17 p.m. PST

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For China, Tawang offers an entry point to Arunachal Pradesh and the rest of India's north-east.

Some experts think Beijing wants to bring Buddhist holy sites, like Tawang, under its control to cement its authority over Tibet. When the current Dalai Lama fled to India in 1959, he reached Tawang first after crossing mountains by foot.

There's also suspicion among some Chinese observers that given the ethnic link between the cross-border communities, Tawang could be used to whip up any future Tibetan uprising.

China's claims to Arunachal Pradesh have become more assertive over the past 20 years, but it appears it's been willing to trade.

Liu Zongyi, a senior fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, says Tawang was central to a deal China offered India during talks in 2006.

"On the premise of recovering Tawang, China was willing to give up its claim for sovereignty over most parts of southern Tibet [Arunachal Pradesh]… in exchange for India's recognition of China's sovereignty and control over Aksai Chin," Mr. Liu told the BBC.

He said the offer didn't succeed because India hadn't been willing to give up its interests in the east, especially over Tawang, and was also not ready to make concessions on Aksai Chin - currently under Chinese control.

Shyam Saran, India's foreign secretary at that time, said he didn't remember any such proposal.

"We never got down to any bargaining on how much territory you are willing to give up, how much territory we are willing to trade off. That stage never came up," Mr Saran said.

Border negotiations have continued in the years since, but made no progress. The two sides met in Beijing in February for their first in-person talks in three years.

India's official position remains maintaining the status quo until a final settlement, but Chinese observers are wary.

Mr. Zhou, the former PLA officer, says Indian intransigence has generated suspicion.

"In China there are some people who say the Indian attitude is like - mine is mine and yours is also mine. They believe that as India is in control of the eastern sector, therefore they are trying their best to grab more land in the west in Ladakh," Mr. Zhou said.

According to Mr. Liu, India has over decades adopted an "offensive defence policy, constantly encroaching on Chinese territory across the LAC and occupying the military commanding heights in the border areas".

Such remarks mirror criticisms of China's approach to territory that India regards as its own. "The Chinese keep moving the goal posts or shifting their position," says Mr. Saran.

With both sides showing little flexibility, Mr. Zhou thinks resolving the border dispute should be left to the future.

But many in India feel a delay could only be advantageous to China, which has vastly increased its military and economic might in the last few decades.

"As the power asymmetry between the two sides keeps growing, I think we should expect a much more assertive China," said Mr. Saran.

No one expects a war to break out anytime soon, given how much India and China value their strong trade relations. But neither shows any sign of compromise.

As both sides vie for control on the ground, clashes like the recent one near Tawang only become more likely - all it would need is a spark for things to flare up.

Translation

（繼續）

對於中國來說，達旺提供了進入阿魯納恰爾邦和印度東北部其他地區的入口。

一些專家認為，北京希望將達旺等佛教聖地置於其控制之下，以鞏固其對西藏的權威。 現任達賴喇嘛1959年逃往印度時，先是翻山越嶺到達旺。

一些中國觀察家還懷疑，鑑於跨境社區之間的種族聯繫，達旺可能會被用來煽動未來的西藏起義。

中國對阿魯納恰爾邦的主權要求在過去 20 年中變得更加進取，但似乎一直願意進行交換。

上海國際問題研究院高級研究員Liu Zongyi說，達旺是中國在 2006 年會談期間,向印度提出的一項協議的核心。

Liu先生告訴英國廣播公司說:“在收回達旺的前提下，中國願意放棄對藏南大部分地區[阿魯納恰爾邦]的主權要求……以換取印度承認中國對Aksai Chin的主權和控制權，”。

他說，這一提議沒有成功，因為印度不願放棄其在東部的利益，尤其是達旺地區的利益，而且也不准備在對目前處於中國控制下的Aksai Chin作出讓步。

當時的印度外交大臣Shyam Saran說他不記得有過這樣的提議。

Saran先生說:“我們從來沒有就你願意放棄多少領土、我們願意交換多少領土進行任何討價還價。那個階段從來沒有出現過”。

從那以後，邊界談判一直在繼續，但沒有取得任何進展。 雙方於 2 月在北京舉行了三年來的首次面對面會談。

印度的官方立場是在最終解決之前維持現狀，但中國觀察人士持小心的態度。

前解放軍軍官Zhou先生說，印度的不妥協態度引起了懷疑。

Zhou先生說“在中國，有些人說印度的態度是 - 我的就是我的，你的也是我的。他們認為，由於印度控制著東部地區，因此他們正在盡最大努力在Ladakh西部攫取更多土地”。

據Liu先生，印度幾十年來一直奉行 “進攻性防禦政策，不斷越過實控線侵佔中國領土，佔領邊境地區的軍事制高點”。

這些言論非常相似印度看中國怎樣對待印度自己, 批評認為領土是自己的做法。 Saran先生說: “中國人一直在移動龍門柱或改變他們的立場”。

由於雙方都沒有表現出多少靈活性，Zhou先生認為邊界爭端的解決應該留待未來解決。

但許多印度人認為，拖延只會對中國有利，因為中國在過去幾十年裏大大增強了其軍事和經濟實力。

Saran先生說： “隨著雙方力量不對稱的不斷加劇，我認為我們應該預計會有一個更加绌绌迫人的中國。”

考慮到印度和中國對兩國牢固貿易關係的重視程度，沒有人預計戰爭會很快爆發。 但兩者都沒有表現出任何妥協的跡象。

隨著雙方爭奪地面控制權，像最近在達旺附近發生的衝突只會變得更有可能發生 - 它只需要一點火花就可以爆發。

       So, Tawang hit the headlines in December 2022 after the first clashes there in years. India said Chinese soldiers encroach into its territory and "unilaterally tried to change the status quo". This border dispute between India and China can be a potential flashpoint for future conflicts. But it seems that no one expects a war to break out anytime soon, given how much India and China value their strong trade relations. Furthermore, I think China will be too busy to deal with this border confrontation in view of its conflict with the US in the South China sea, and also the on-going Russian invasion into Ukraine.