Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:
Studying Ukraine war, China's military minds fret over US
missiles, Starlink (1/2)
Tue, March 7, 2023 at 6:10 p.m. PST
By Eduardo Baptista and Greg Torode
BEIJING/HONG KONG (Reuters) -China needs the capability to
shoot down low-earth-orbit Starlink satellites and defend tanks and helicopters
against shoulder-fired Javelin missiles, according to Chinese military
researchers who are studying Russia's struggles in Ukraine in planning for
possible conflict with U.S.-led forces in Asia.
A Reuters review of almost 100 articles in more than 20 defence journals reveals an effort across China's military-industrial complex to scrutinize the impact of U.S. weapons and technology that could be deployed against Chinese forces in a war over Taiwan.
The Chinese-language journals, which also examine Ukrainian sabotage operations, reflect the work of hundreds of researchers across a network of People's Liberation Army (PLA)-linked universities, state-owned weapons manufacturers and military intelligence think-tanks.
While Chinese officials have avoided any openly critical comments about Moscow's actions or battlefield performance as they call for peace and dialogue, the publicly available journal articles are more candid in their assessments of Russian shortcomings.
China's defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment about the researchers' findings. Reuters could not determine how closely the conclusions reflect the thinking among China's military leaders.
Two military attaches and another diplomat familiar with China's defence studies said the Communist Party's Central Military Commission, headed by President Xi Jinping, ultimately sets and directs research needs, and that it was clear from the volume of material that Ukraine was an opportunity the military leadership wanted to seize. The three people and other diplomats spoke to Reuters on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss their work publicly.
"A key lesson the world should take away from the rapid international response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine is that aggression will increasingly be met with unity of action," said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the topic's sensitivity, without addressing concerns raised in the Chinese research about specific U.S. capabilities.
STARLINK GAZING
Half a dozen papers by PLA researchers highlight Chinese concern at the role of Starlink, a satellite network developed by Elon Musk's U.S.-based space exploration company SpaceX, in securing the communications of Ukraine's military amid Russian missile attacks on the country's power grid.
"The excellent performance of 'Starlink' satellites in this Russian-Ukrainian conflict will certainly prompt the U.S. and Western countries to use 'Starlink' extensively" in possible hostilities in Asia, said a September article co-written by researchers at the Army Engineering University of the PLA.
The authors deemed it "urgent" for China - which aims to develop its own similar satellite network – to find ways to shoot down or disable Starlink. SpaceX did not respond to a request for comment.
The conflict has also forged an apparent consensus among Chinese researchers that drone warfare merits greater investment. China has been testing drones in the skies around Taiwan, a self-ruled democracy that Beijing has vowed to bring under its control.
"These unmanned aerial vehicles will serve as the 'door kicker' of future wars," noted one article in a tank warfare journal published by state-owned arms manufacturer NORINCO, a supplier to the PLA, that described drones' ability to neutralize enemy defences.
While some of the journals are operated by provincial research institutes, others are official publications for central government bodies such as the State Administration of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defence, which oversees weapons production and military upgrades.
An article in the administration's official journal in October noted that China should improve its ability to defend military equipment in view of the "serious damage to Russian tanks, armored vehicles and warships" inflicted by Stinger and Javelin missiles operated by Ukrainian fighters.
Collin Koh, a security fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said the Ukrainian conflict had provided impetus to long-standing efforts by China's military scientists to develop cyber-warfare models and find ways of better protecting armor from modern Western weapons.
"Starlink is really something new for them to worry about; the military application of advanced civilian technology that they can't easily replicate," Koh said.
Beyond technology, Koh said he was not surprised that Ukrainian special forces operations inside Russia were being studied by China, which, like Russia, moves troops and weapons by rail, making them vulnerable to sabotage.
Despite its rapid modernization, the PLA lacks recent combat experience. China's invasion of Vietnam in 1979 was its last major battle – a conflict that rumbled on until the late 1980s.
Reuters' review of the Chinese journals comes amid Western concern that China may be planning to supply Russia with lethal aid for its assault on Ukraine, which Beijing denies.
(to be continued)
Translation
北京/香港（路透社）- 正在研究俄羅斯在烏克蘭的戰爭，以便規劃與美國領導的亞洲軍隊可能發生的衝突的中國軍事研究人員表示，中國需要具備擊落近地軌道星鏈衛星並保護坦克和直升機免受肩扛式標槍導彈攻擊的能力。
路透社對中國 20 多家國防期刊上的近 100 篇文章進行的審閱顯示，中國軍工聯合體正在努力細察可能在台灣戰爭中針對中國軍隊部署的美國武器和技術的影響。
這些中文期刊也研究了烏克蘭的破壞行動，反映了數百名研究人員在人民解放軍 (PLA) 相關大學、國有武器製造商和軍事情報智囊團網絡中的工作。
雖然中國官員呼籲和平與對話, 並避免公開對莫斯科的行動或戰場表現發表任何批評，但公開發表的期刊文章對俄羅斯缺點的評估比較坦率。
中國國防部沒有回應就研究人員的調查結果置評的請求。 路透社無法確定這些結論在多大程度上反映了中國軍方領導人的想法。
兩名武官和另一名熟悉中國國防研究的外交官表示，由以習近平主席為首的中共中央軍事委員會會作出最終研究要求及領導方向，從大量材料中可以清楚地看出，烏克蘭是一個機會軍方領導層想抓住的。 這三人和其他外交官在不願透露姓名的情況下與路透社交談，因為他們無權公開討論自身的工作。
一位美國國防官員告訴路透社，儘管與台灣的情況存在差異，但烏克蘭戰爭為中國提供了對複雜情況有更清晰和深刻的理解。
一位官員，由於話題的敏感性，不願透露姓名地說:“世界應該吸取的一個重要教訓是, 從國際社會對俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的快速反應看到，侵略將越來越多地被團結的行動應對”; 但他沒有觸及研究中提出對美國特定軍事能力的擔憂。
凝視星鏈
PLA 研究人員的六篇論文強調了中國對 Starlink 作用的擔憂，Starlink
是馬斯克的美國太空探索公司
SpaceX 開發的衛星網絡，在俄羅斯導彈襲擊該國電網的情況下,確保烏克蘭軍方的通信安全。
解放軍的陸軍工程大學研究人員在 9 月與人合著的一篇文章說, 在亞洲可能發生的敵對行動中:“‘星鏈’衛星在這次俄烏衝突中的出色表現肯,定會促使美國和西方國家廣泛使用‘星鏈’”。
作者認為，對於旨在發展自己的類似衛星網絡的中國來說，找到擊落或 癱瘓Starlink 的方法是“緊迫的”。 SpaceX 沒有回應置評請求。
這場衝突還在中國研究人員中形成了一個明顯的共識，即無人機戰爭值得更多投資。 中國一直在台灣周圍的天空測試無人機，台灣是一個自治民主體系，北京發誓要將其置於其控制之下。
解放軍的供應商國有武器製造商NORINCO在坦克戰雜誌上發表的一篇文章指出， “這些無人駕駛飛行器將成為未來戰爭的‘開門器’”;該文章描述了無人機摧毀敵人防禦的能力 .
雖然有些期刊由省級研究機構運營，但其他期刊是中央政府機構的官方出版物，例如負責監督武器生產和軍事升級的國家國防科技工業局。
政府官方雜誌 10 月發表的一篇文章指出，鑑於烏克蘭戦士使用的毒刺和標槍導彈對 “俄羅斯坦克、裝甲車和軍艦造成的嚴重破壞” ，中國應提高其防禦軍事裝備的能力。
新加坡 S. Rajaratnam 國際研究學院的安全研究員 Collin Koh 表示，烏克蘭衝突推動了中國軍事科學家長期努力開發網絡戰模型,並尋找更好地保護裝甲免受現代西方武器攻擊的方法。
Koh 說: “Starlink 確實是他們擔心的新事物；這是他們無法輕易複製的先進民用技術作軍事應用，”。
除了技術之外，Koh 表示，他對中國正在研究烏克蘭特種部隊在俄羅斯境內的行動並不感到驚訝，中國與俄羅斯一樣，通過鐵路運送軍隊和武器，這使得它們容易受到破壞。
儘管現代化迅速，但解放軍缺乏近期的戰鬥經驗。 中國在 1979 年入侵越南是最後一場重大戰役 - 這場衝突一直持續到 1980 年代後期。
路透社對中國期刊進行評論之際，西方擔心中國可能計劃向俄羅斯提供致命援助以應對其對烏克蘭的攻擊，北京對此予以否認。
（待續）
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