Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:
Studying Ukraine war, China's military minds fret over US
missiles, Starlink (2/2)
Tue, March 7, 2023 at 6:10 p.m. PST
By Eduardo Baptista and Greg Torode
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TAIWAN, AND BEYOND
Some of the Chinese articles stress Ukraine's relevance
given the risk of a regional conflict pitting China against the United States
and its allies, possibly over Taiwan. The U.S. has a policy of "strategic
ambiguity" over whether it would intervene militarily to defend the
island, but is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself.
U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns has said that Xi has ordered his military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, while noting that the Chinese leader was probably unsettled by Russia's experience in Ukraine.
One article, published in October by two researchers at the PLA's National Defence University, analyzed the effect of U.S. deliveries of high-mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) to Ukraine, and whether China's military should be concerned.
"If HIMARS dares to intervene in Taiwan in the future, what was once known as an 'explosion-causing tool' will suffer another fate in front of different opponents," it concluded.
The article highlighted China's own advanced rocket system, supported by reconnaissance drones, and noted that Ukraine's success with HIMARS had relied on U.S. sharing of target information and intelligence via Starlink.
Four diplomats, including the two military attaches, said PLA analysts have long worried about superior U.S. military might, but Ukraine has sharpened their focus by providing a window on a large power's failure to overwhelm a smaller one backed by the West.
While that scenario has obvious Taiwan comparisons, there are differences, particularly given the island's vulnerability to a Chinese blockade that could force any intervening militaries into a confrontation.
Western countries, by contrast, are able to supply Ukraine by land via its European neighbors.
References to Taiwan are relatively few in the journals reviewed by Reuters, but diplomats and foreign scholars tracking the research say that Chinese defence analysts are tasked to provide separate internal reports for senior political and military leaders. Reuters was unable to access those internal reports.
Taiwanese Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said in February that China's military is learning from Russia's invasion of Ukraine that any attack on Taiwan would have to be swift to succeed. Taiwan is also studying the conflict to update its own battle strategies.
Several articles analyze the strengths of the Ukrainian resistance, including special forces' sabotage operations inside Russia, the use of the Telegram app to harness civilian intelligence, and the defense of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol.
Russian successes are also noted, such as tactical strikes using the Iskander ballistic missile.
The journal Tactical Missile Technology, published by state-owned weapons manufacturer China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation, produced a detailed analysis of the Iskander, but only released a truncated version to the public.
Many other articles focus on the mistakes of Russia's invading army, with one in the tank warfare journal identifying outdated tactics and a lack of unified command, while another in an electronic warfare journal said Russian communications interference was insufficient to counter NATO's provision of intelligence to the Ukrainians, leading to costly ambushes.
Beyond the battlefield, the work has covered the information war, which the researchers conclude was won by Ukraine and its allies.
China should "promote the construction of cognitive confrontation platforms" and tighten control of social media to prevent Western information campaigns from influencing its people during a conflict, it said.
Translation
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台灣及其他地區
一些中國文章強調了烏克蘭的相關性, 因為地區衝突, 可能在台灣問題上,
可使中國與美國及其盟友有發生衝突的風險。 美國在是否會進行軍事干預以保衛台灣島嶼方面恃
“戰略模糊”的政策，但受法律約束必須為台灣提供自衛手段。
美國中央情報局局長 William Burns表示，習近平已下令他的軍隊準備在 2027 年之前入侵台灣，同時指出中國領導人可能對俄羅斯在烏克蘭的經歷感到不安。
解放軍國防大學的兩名研究人員於 10 月發表了一篇文章，分析了美國向烏克蘭交付高機動火砲火箭系統 (HIMARS) 的影響，以及中國軍隊是否應該擔心。
它得出結論稱:“如果HIMARS未來敢插手台灣，這個曾經號稱‘引爆工具’的東西，將在不同的對手面前，再遭一次厄運。”
文章強調了中國在偵察無人機支持下的先進火箭系統，並指出烏克蘭在 HIMARS 方面的成功依賴於美國通過 Starlink 共享目標信息和情報。
包括兩名武官在內的四名外交官表示，解放軍分析人士長期以來一直擔心美國軍事力量的優勢，但烏克蘭提供了一個窗口，使他們更加關注到, 大國未能壓倒有西方支持的小國。
雖然這種情況與台灣有明顯的可比性，但也存在差異，特別是考慮到該島容易受到中國封鎖的影響，這可能迫使任何干預軍隊陷入對恃。
相比之下，西方國家能夠通過其歐洲鄰國通過陸路向烏克蘭供應物資。
路透社查閱的期刊中提及台灣的數量相對較少，但追踪該研究的外交官和外國學者表示，中國國防分析師的任務是為高級政治和軍事領導人提供個別的內部報告。 路透社無法接觸這些內部報告。
台灣國防部長Chiu Kuo-cheng 在二月份表示，中國軍方正在從俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的事件中吸取教訓，即任何對台灣的攻擊都必須迅速取得成功。 台灣也在研究這場衝突，以更新自己的作戰策略。
幾篇文章分析了烏克蘭抵抗力量的能力，包括特種部隊在俄羅斯境內的破壞行動、使用 Telegram 應用程序來活用民間情報，以及保衛馬里烏波爾的 Azovstal 鋼鐵廠。
分析還注意到俄羅斯的成功，例如使用Iskander彈道導彈的戰術攻擊。
國有武器製造商中國航天科工集團公司出版的《戰術導彈技術》雜誌對Iskander進行了詳細分析，但只向公眾發布了一個刪節版。
許多其他文章關注俄羅斯入侵軍隊的錯誤，其中一篇在坦克戰爭雜誌上指出戰術過時和缺乏統一指揮，而另一篇在電子戰雜誌上說俄羅斯的通信干擾不足以對抗北約向烏克蘭人提供情報，導致受代價高昂的伏擊。
人民武裝警察工程大學的研究人員今年發表的一篇文章, 評估了中國可以從俄羅斯佔領的克里米亞Kerch大橋爆炸事件中獲得的清晰及深刻理解。 然而，完整的分析尚未公開發布。
在戰場之外，分析工作還涵蓋了信息戰，研究人員得出結論認為烏克蘭及其盟國贏得了信息戰。
中國人民解放軍信息工程大學的研究人員在 2 月發表的一篇文章呼籲中國先發製人地準備應對與俄羅斯面對類似的全球輿論反彈。
它說，中國應該 “推進認知對抗平台的建設” ， 加強對社交媒體的控制，以防止西方的信息宣傳在衝突中影響中國民眾。
So, China is making an effort to scrutinize the impact of U.S. weapons and technology that could be used against
Chinese forces in a war over Taiwan. The study suggests that China needs
the capability to shoot down low-earth-orbit Starlink satellites and defend
tanks and helicopters against shoulder-fired Javelin missiles. Some article say
that China
should "promote the construction of cognitive confrontation
platforms" and tighten control of social media to prevent Western
information campaigns from influencing its people during a conflict. I am
wondering whether TikTok could be a weapon for China to fight an information
campaign.
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