Recently NHK New on-line reported the following:
かつての輸出立国がなぜ? 去年の貿易赤字19.9兆円で過去最大に
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2023年1月19日 16時57分
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かつては輸出立国も原発事故をきっかけに…
かつて日本は「輸出大国」として国内で生産した製品を輸出することで巨額の貿易黒字を積み上げてきました。
1980年代から1990年代にかけて日本は、半導体や自動車を世界中に輸出し、1981年以降、一貫して貿易黒字を計上。黒字額が10兆円を超える年も多くありましたが、その一方で、アメリカなどとの間で激しい貿易摩擦も引き起こしました。
貿易黒字はリーマンショックの影響で2兆円台まで落ち込みますが、さらに大きな転機となったのは2011年です。
東日本大震災による原発事故の影響で、全国の原発が運転を停止し、火力発電の燃料となる原油やLNG＝液化天然ガスの輸入が急増。この年の貿易収支は、2兆5647億円の赤字となり31年ぶりの貿易赤字に転落しました。
その後、2015年まで5年連続で貿易赤字となり、中でも2014年には12兆8160億円とこの時点での過去最大の赤字額を計上しました。
その後は、年間の貿易収支が黒字となった年もありましたが、資源価格が上昇すれば貿易赤字につながるという構図が続いています。
さらに、日本の主力産業である自動車などもアメリカや中国など海外での生産が進み、以前ほど輸出が増えなくなっているという事情もあります。
去年は、原油などエネルギー資源の価格高騰に加えて、外国為替市場で円安が急速に進んだことで円建ての輸入額の増加につながりました。
その一方で、輸出はアメリカ向けの自動車などが増えたものの、輸入に比べると伸びは小さく、この結果、赤字額は過去最大を更新しました。
原発事故以降、去年までの12年間で赤字になった年は合わせて9年となっています。
去年1年間の月ごとの貿易収支を見ると1月以降、毎月赤字となっていて8月には1か月としては過去最大となる2兆8000億円余りの赤字を計上。9月以降も2兆円を超える赤字が続きましたが、先月の赤字額は1兆4484億円と前の月に比べて5800億円余り縮小しました。
海外経済の減速を背景に原油などの価格が下落傾向になっていることや、日銀が金融緩和策を修正したことで為替市場で円高が進んだことなどが要因です。
貿易赤字は日本の企業や個人が経済活動を行って稼いだ富が海外に流出するだけでなく、赤字が続けば海外から資源などを輸入するのに必要なドルを調達するため、円安につながることにもなります。
Translation
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Once an export-oriented country in the wake of the
nuclear accident...
In the past, Japan as a “major exporter” had accumulated a huge trade surplus by exporting domestically produced products.
From the 1980s to the 1990s, Japan exported semiconductors and automobiles all over the world, and since 1981 had consistently recorded a trade surplus. There were many years when the surplus amount exceeded 10 trillion yen, but on the other hand, it caused intense trade friction with the United States and other countries.
The trade surplus fell to the 2 trillion yen level due to the effects of the Lehman Shock, but 2011 marked an even bigger turning point.
Due to the nuclear power plant accident caused by the Great
East Japan Earthquake, nuclear power plants nationwide stopped operating, and
imports of crude oil and LNG (liquefied natural gas), which were fuels for
thermal power generation, increased rapidly. The balance of trade that year was
a deficit of 2,564.7 billion yen, the first trade deficit in 31 years.
After that, Japan had a trade deficit for five consecutive years until 2015, and in 2014, it recorded the largest deficit ever at 12.816 trillion yen.
After that, there were years when the annual trade balance was in the black; but the pattern that if resource prices rose, it would lead to a trade deficit, continued.
Furthermore, automobiles, which were Japan's main industry, were being produced overseas, such as in the United States and China, there was also the fact that exports were not increasing as much as before.
Last year, in addition to soaring prices of energy resources such as crude oil, the rapid depreciation of the yen in the foreign exchange market led to an increase in yen-denominated imports.
On the other hand, although exports of automobiles to the United States increased, the growth was smaller than that of imports, and as a result, the deficit reached a record high.
In the 12 years since the nuclear accident, up until last year, a total of 9 years were in the red.
Looking at the monthly trade balance for the past year, it
had been in the red every month since January, and in August, it posted a
deficit of more than 2.8 trillion yen, the largest ever for a single month. The
deficit continued to exceed 2 trillion yen even after September, but last
month's deficit was 1,448.4 billion yen, a decrease of 580 billion yen from the
previous month.
The factors were such as the declining trend in prices of crude oil and other commodities against the backdrop of a slowdown in overseas economies, and the appreciation of the yen in the foreign exchange market due to the revision of monetary easing measures by the Bank of Japan.
If this trend continued, there was a possibility that the number of imports could decrease and the trade deficit could shrink. It had been pointed out that it would be difficult to eliminate the trade deficit immediately, as it was expected that exports could not grow due to the effects of the slowdown in overseas economies.
The trade deficit was not caused by the flowing out to overseas of the wealth that Japanese companies and individuals earned through economic activities alone; if the deficit continues, it could lead to a weaker yen because Japan had to buy dollars that was necessary to import resources from overseas.
So, from
the 1980s to the 1990s, Japan exported semiconductors and automobiles all over
the world, and since 1981 it had consistently recorded a trade surplus. This
trade surplus fell due to the effects of the Lehman Shock, but 2011 marked an
even bigger turning point because of the Great East Japan Earthquake. Nuclear
power plants nationwide had stopped operation and crude oil and LNG (liquefied
natural gas) were imported as fuels for thermal power generation. The balance
of trade that year was a deficit of 2,564.7 billion yen, the first trade
deficit in 31 years. From then onwards Japan frequently faces trade deficits.
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