隨著日本央行努力控制收益率，日本警告財政狀況不佳

Recently Yahoo New on-line reported the following:

Japan warns of dire finances as BOJ struggles to contain yields

Sun, January 22, 2023 at 9:10 p.m. PST

By Tetsushi Kajimoto

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's finances are becoming increasingly precarious, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki warned on Monday, just as markets test whether the central bank can keep interest rates ultra-low, allowing the government to service its debt.

The government has been helped by near-zero bond yields, but bond investors have recently sought to break the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) 0.5% cap on the 10-year bond yield, as inflation runs at 41-year highs, double the central bank's 2% target.

"Japan's public finances have increased in severity to an unprecedented degree as we have compiled supplementary budgets to respond to the coronavirus and similar issues," Suzuki said in a policy speech starting a session of parliament.

It is not unusual for the finance minister to refer to Japan's strained finances. Despite the country's growing debt pile, the government remains under pressure to keep the fiscal spigot wide open. Japan must balance regional security concerns over China, Russia and North Korea, and manage a debt burden more than twice the size of its $5 trillion economy - by far the heaviest burden in the industrialized world.

Market showed little reaction to Suzuki's speech, in which he explained the details of the coming fiscal year's state budget worth a record 114.4 trillion yen ($878.9 billion).

Suzuki reiterated the government's aim to achieve an annual budget surplus - excluding new bond sales and debt-servicing costs - in the fiscal year to March 2026. The government, however, has missed budget-balancing targets for a decade.

The Ministry of Finance estimates that every 1-percentage-point rise in interest rates would boost debt service by 3.7 trillion yen to 32.5 trillion yen for the 2025/2026 fiscal year.

"The government will strive to stably manage Japanese government bond (JGBs) issuance through close communication with the market," he said.

"Overall JGB issuance, including rolling over bonds, remain at an extremely high level worth about 206 trillion yen. "We will step up efforts to keep JGB issuance stable."

"Public finance is the cornerstone of a country's trust. We must secure fiscal space under normal circumstances to safeguard trust in Japan and people's livelihood at a time of emergency."

LABOUR REFORM

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida echoed Suzuki's resolve to revive the economy and tackle fiscal reform. He stressed the need for a positive cycle of growth led by corporate profits and private consumption, which accounts for more than half of the economy.

"Wage hikes hold the key to this virtuous cycle," Kishida said in his policy speech. He vowed to push labor reform to create a structure that allows sustainable wage growth and overcome the pain of rising living costs.

"First of all, we need to realize wage growth that exceeds price increases," Kishida added, pledging to also boost childcare support, and push investment and reform in areas such as green and digital transformation.

Translation

東京（路透社）- 日本財務大臣鈴木俊一周一警告稱，日本的財政狀況正變得越來越不穩定，而市場正在測試央行能否保持超低利率，從而讓政府能夠償還債務。

接近零的債券收益率幫助了政府，但債券投資者最近尋求突破日本銀行 (BOJ) 對 10 年期債券收益率設定的 0.5% 上限，因為通脹率達到 41 年高位，是中央銀行的 2% 目標的兩倍。

鈴木在議會會議開始時發表的政策演講中說: “由於我們編制了補充預算以應對冠狀病毒和類似問題，日本公共財政的嚴重性增加到前所未有的程度” 。

財務大臣提到日本緊張的財政狀況並不罕見。 儘管該國的債務不斷增加，但政府仍然面臨著壓力去保持打開財政水龍頭。 日本必須平衡對中國、俄羅斯和朝鮮的地區安全擔憂，並應對相當於其經濟規模兩倍多的5萬億美元債務負擔 - 迄今為止是工業化世界中最沉重的負擔。

市場對鈴木的講話反應平平，他在講話中解釋了價值創紀錄的 114.4 萬億日元（8,789 億美元）的下一財年國家預算的細節。

鈴木重申政府的目標是在截至 2026 年 3 月的財政年度實現年度預算盈餘 - 不包括新債券銷售和償債成本。然而，政府十年來一直未能實現預算平衡目標。

日本財務省估計，利率每上升 1 個百分點，將令2025/2026 財年的償債額增加 3.7 萬億日元, 至 32.5 萬億日元。

他說: “政府將通過與市場的密切溝通，努力穩定管理日本政府債券（JGBs）的發行” 。

“包括展期債券在內, 日本國債的總發行量仍處於極高水平，約為 206 萬億日元。我們將加大力度保持日本國債發行量穩定。”

“公共財政是一個國家信任的基石。我們必須在正常情況下確保財政空間，以維護對日本的信任, 和在緊急情況下維護民生。”

勞工改革

日本首相岸田文雄贊同鈴木振興經濟和進行財政改革的決心。 他強調需要一個以企業利潤和私人消費為主導的正循環增長。企業利潤和私人消費共佔總經濟额一半以上。

岸田在他的政策演講中說: “加薪是這個良性循環的關鍵” 。 他發誓要推動勞工改革，以創造一個允許可持續工資增長並克服生活成本上升痛苦的結構。

岸田補充說: “首先，我們需要實現工資增長超過物價上漲”，並承諾將加大對兒童保育的支持，並推動綠色和電子化轉型等領域的投資和改革。

So, Japan is trying to balance and manage a debt burden more than twice the size of its $5 trillion economy. This is by far the heaviest burden in the industrialised world.