China's first population decline in 60 years - Impact on economy

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

中国、６０年ぶりに人口減　経済に影響か

2023.01.17 Tue posted at 20:50 JST

香港（ＣＮＮ） 中国国家統計局（ＮＢＳ）は１７日、中国の人口が２０２２年にここ６０年あまりで初めて減少したと明らかにした。深刻化する中国の人口危機が新たな局面を迎えた格好で、減速する中国経済にとって重大な意味を持つ。

ＮＢＳによると、中国の人口は２２年、前年を８５万人あまり下回る１４億１１００万に減少した。

アナリストによれば、人口減は毛沢東の「大躍進」政策をきっかけに深刻な飢饉（ききん）が発生した１９６１年以来となる。

ピンポイント・アセット・マネジメントのチーフエコノミストは「人口はここから減少傾向に転じる可能性が高い。これは非常に重要な現象であり、潜在成長や国内の需要に影響を及ぼす」と指摘した。

１０００人当たりの出生数も前年の７．５２から過去最低の６．７７に落ち込み、４９年に共産主義国家・中国が建国されて以降で最低の水準となった。中国政府は結婚した夫婦に子どもを持つよう促しているものの、２０２２年の出生数は９５６万人あまりと、２１年の１０６２万人を下回った。

この日は人口統計のほか、中国の年間経済成長率が半世紀近くで最悪の水準に落ち込んだことも発表された。昨年の成長率は政府目標を大幅に割り込む３％にとどまり、労働力減少や退職者の増加に伴い中国が直面する経済的課題の深刻さを浮き彫りにした。

国連は昨年、２３年には中国がインドを抜いて世界で最も人口が多い国になるとの予測を示していた。

Translation

Hong Kong (CNN) China's population declined in 2022 for the first time in more than 60 years, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Monday. China's deepening demographic crisis had entered a new phase, and had great implications for China's slowing economy.

According to NBS, China's population fell to 1.411 billion in 2022, down more than 850,000 from the previous year.

Analysts said it was the first population decline since 1961, when Mao Zedong's "Great Leap Forward" policy triggered a severe famine.

Pinpoint Asset Management's chief economist said, "Population is likely to start downward trend from here. This is a very important phenomenon that will affect potential growth and domestic demand."

The number of births per 1,000 people fell from 7.52 in the previous year to a record low of 6.77, the lowest level since the founding of communist China in 1949. Although the Chinese government was encouraging married couples to have children, the number of births in 2022 could fall to just over 9.56 million, down from 10.62 million in 2021.

Besides demographics, China's annual economic growth plunged to its worst level in nearly half a century. Growth last year was just 3%, well below the government target, underscoring the serious economic challenges facing China as the workforce shrank and more people retired.

The United Nations predicted last year that India would overtake China as the world's most populous country by 2023.

So, China’s population is likely to start a downward trend from now on and this will affect economic growth and domestic demand.

Note:

PinPOINT is an asset management company that provides professional investment management and advisory services to global institutional investors. (https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/pinpoint-asset-management)