氣候補償的突破和 COP27 的其他 7 個要點

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

A Breakthrough on Climate Compensation and 7 Other Takeaways from COP27

Akshat Rathi and Laura Millan Lombrana

Mon, November 21, 2022 at 1:57 a.m.

(Bloomberg) -- They got there in the end. After dawn on Sunday morning in Egypt, bleary-eyed ministers adopted a final agreement for COP27 and completed more than two weeks of UN climate negotiations in the Sinai peninsula.

The deal included a historic provision to set up a fund to help poorer countries face the harm caused by climate change, and that outcome was understandably celebrated by nations on the front line of a warming world. “A mission 30 years in the making has been accomplished,” said Molwyn Joseph, the minister from Antigua and Barbuda and chair of the AOSIS group of small island nations.

But beyond loss and damage — the COP-world term for paying up for climate catastrophes — the final deal was a clear disappointment for those wanting to ratchet up the ambitions of last year’s Glasgow agreement. The statement didn’t include a commitment to broaden the pledge to phase down unabated coal emissions to cover all fossil fuels, and there was no reference to global greenhouse gas emissions peaking by 2025.

The endgame was clearly tough for the European Commission climate chief Frans Timmermans, who had taken center stage at the summit, proposing a grand bargain on loss and damage in exchange for more emissions ambition and then threatening a late walkout by the European Union.

In the end, the EU and its allies had to settle for some technical changes to the so-called work program on mitigation. Now that the books have closed on COP27, here’s a look at eight key takeaways from two weeks of climate talks involving nearly 200 countries.

1. A new fund for loss and damage

Climate change causes inequities and exacerbates them. The rich countries gained their wealth from fossil fuels, leaving poor countries who haven’t benefited from those emissions with huge bills from the resulting climate impacts. After decades of calls to compensate climate victims in the developing world, COP27 finally produced an agreement to create a fund that would address loss and damage.

But this breakthrough comes with enormous question marks. No sums of money were actually committed at Sharm El-Sheikh, and the rules of how the fund would work were left to be decided at next year’s COP28 in the United Arab Emirates. Henry Kokofu, Ghanaian politician and head of the Climate Vulnerable Forum, warned that without further concrete steps there is a risk of simply creating “an empty bank account.”

2. Possible changes coming to multilateral lenders

For the first time, a COP meeting included a call to reform the global financial architecture so that it better aligns with climate goals. The idea is to tweak the mandates of multilateral development banks such as the World Bank and international financial institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund, to ensure that greater financing flows to energy-transition projects and efforts to adapt to a warming planet.

“The moment is right,” said Laurence Tubiana, chief executive officer of the European Climate Foundation. “Climate impacts are beginning to be understood as a macroeconomic risk.”

3. The fight for the nitty-gritty

The issue that held up negotiations and made COP27 the second-longest UN climate summit was the “mitigation work program.” The idea is to ensure that countries set clear targets, plans and metrics to reduce emissions on pace to meet climate goals. So far, commitments have not followed the same standard, with countries using different criteria and baselines for their targets. Without a common system, those pledges may not turn into actual emissions reductions.

Climate-forward countries wanted to run the program until 2030. But opposition from laggards led to a compromise of running it until 2026, with a chance to extend it. If the program succeeds, it could have stronger implications than countries simply agreeing to political statements of phasing out all fossil fuels.

4. Weak rules for carbon markets

Countries agreed at COP26 to create the rules that would allow nations to trade carbon credits. That means that Norway, for example, could pay to preserve Indonesian forests, and in return scrub emissions from the Norwegian carbon ledger. At COP27, negotiators outlined a more detailed framework for how such a carbon market would work, including allowing corporations to buy credits from governments.

But experts warned the rules are still not strict enough. “The carbon market spirit of Glasgow turned into the offsetting ghost of Sharm El-Sheikh, which risks haunting effective climate action for years to come,” said Sam Van den plas, policy director at Carbon Market Watch.

5. The 1.5C goal remains in grave jeopardy

Despite attempts by big powers like the US, India and the European Union, the Sharm El-Sheikh agreement failed to raise ambitions on reducing emissions. That could mean the world misses the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming target enshrined in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Calls to phase out all fossil fuels (not just coal) and to peak global emissions by 2025 (which is likely to happen anyway, according to the International Energy Agency) were shot down by many nations who export oil.

While the phase-down of all fossil fuels didn’t make it to the final text, momentum grew around an idea that wasn’t even on the cards before the summit. As many as 80 countries now support it, Timmermans said, with the EU and others expected to lobby on the issue during the year ahead.

As the world grapples with an energy crisis and high fossil-fuel prices fill the coffers of major producers, the political clout of carbon powers was on display at COP27. Annalena Baerbock, the German foreign minister, expressed frustration at “being stonewalled by a number of large emitters and oil producers.” That fight is likely to get harder as COP28 heads to the United Arab Emirates, an oil and gas giant.

6. Thawing US-China relations

The US and China started working together on climate again at COP27. The US climate envoy John Kerry and his counterpart Xie Zhenhua said on Saturday that they had resumed formal cooperation, which had been suspended after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan earlier this year.

7. Methane momentum continued

More countries signed up to the methane pledge launched in Glasgow last year. There are now 150 nations that have pledged to cut emissions of the super-powerful greenhouse gas 30% by the end of the decade. Even China said it has developed a draft plan to curb methane emissions, though it’s stopped short of joining the global pledge.

8. Showing some of the money

A constant theme of these talks has been “show me the money” — or climate finance — for developing nations, and there has been some real progress in recent weeks on funding cleaner energy transitions. During COP27, two new Just Energy Transition Partnership funding deals were announced, shifting Vietnam and Indonesia away from coal power. South Africa also got final sign-off from its donors on its own $8.5 billion JETP plan and Indonesia is set to work out an even bigger $20 billion deal to move away from coal.

Translation

（彭博社）- 他們最終做到了。埃及週日清晨破曉後，睡眼惺忪的部長們通過了 COP27 的最終協議，並在西奈半島完成了為期兩週多的聯合國氣候談判。

該協議包括一項具有歷史意義的條款，就是即設立一個基金來幫助較貧窮的國家應對氣候變化造成的危害，而處於世界變暖前線的國家對這一結果表示歡迎是可以理解的。安提瓜和巴布達(Antigua and Barbuda)部長兼小島嶼國家聯盟 (AOSIS)主席 Molwyn Joseph 說: “一項醞釀了 30 年的任務已經完成” 。

但除了所謂 “損失和損害” - COP 世界為氣候災難付出代價的術語 - 最終的協議顯然令那些持有要提升去年格拉斯哥協議的抱負的人感到失望。該聲明沒有承諾將逐步減少在有增無減的煤炭排放的承諾, 擴大到涵蓋所有化石燃料，也沒有提到全球溫室氣體排放量在 2025 年會達到峰值。

對於歐盟委員會氣候事務負責人 Frans Timmermans 來說，結局顯然是艱難的，他在峰會上處於中心位置，提出了一項關於損失和損害的大交易，以換取更大的排放抱負，然後威脅歐盟遲來的罷工。

最終，歐盟及其盟國不得不接受對所謂的 減排工作計劃 (work program on mitigation) 進行一些技術更改。現在 COP27 的帳簿已經塵埃落定，下面是來自近 200 個國家的為期兩週的氣候談判的八個關鍵要點。

1. 新的損失和破壞基金

氣候變化導致並加劇了不平等現象。富國從化石燃料中獲得了財富，而沒有從這些排放中受益的窮國則因由此產生的氣候影響而承擔了巨額費用。經過幾十年對發展中國家氣候受害者進行賠償的呼籲，COP27 最終達成了一項協議，即設立一個基金來應對損失和破壞。

但這一突破伴隨著巨大的問號。在 Sharm El-Sheikh 沒有作出實際的承諾資金數額，該基金的運作規則將在明年的阿拉伯聯合酋長國 COP28 上決定。加納政治家兼 Climate Vulnerable Forum 負責人 Henry Kokofu, 警告說，如果不採取進一步的具體措施，就有可能只是開了一個 “空銀行賬戶” 。

2. 多邊貸方可能發生的變化

COP 會議首次呼籲改革全球金融架構，使其更好地與氣候目標保持一致。這個想法是微調世界銀行等多邊開發銀行和國際貨幣基金組織等國際金融機構執行政策的權力，以確保更多的資金流向能源轉型項目和適應全球變暖的努力。

歐洲氣候基金會首席執行官 Laurence Tubiana 說: “現在是時候了”; “氣候影響開始被理解為宏觀經濟風險。”

3. 為現況的基本事實而戰

阻礙談判並使 COP27 成為持續時間第二長的聯合國氣候峰會的問題是 “減排工作計劃” 。這個想法是為了確保各國設定明確的目標、計劃和指標來減少排放以實現氣候目標。到目前為止，承諾並未遵循相同的標準，各國對其目標使用不同的標準和基線。如果沒有一個共同的系統，這些承諾可能不會變成實際的減排量。

氣候先行國家希望將該計劃運行到 2030 年。但滯後國家的反對導致妥協，將其運行到 2026 年，及有機會延長。如果該計劃取得成功，它可能比各國僅僅同意逐步淘汰所有化石燃料的政治聲明產生更強烈的影響。

4. 碳市場規則薄弱

各國在 COP26 上同意制定允許各國交易碳信用額度的規則。這意味著，例如，挪威可以出錢保護印度尼西亞的森林，作為回報，挪威碳帳簿中的碳排放量也會減少。在 COP27 上，談判代表概述了這樣一個碳市場如何運作的更詳細框架，包括允許企業從政府購買信用額度。

但專家警告說，這些規定仍然不夠嚴格。Carbon Market Watch 政策主管Sam Van den plas 說: “格拉斯哥的碳市場精神變成了 Sharm El-Sheikh 的抵消幽靈，這有可能在未來幾年困擾著有效的氣候行動” 。

5. 1.5C度的目標仍然岌岌可危

 儘管美國、印度和歐盟等國做出了努力，但 Sharm El-Sheikh 協議未能提高減排的雄心。這可能意味著世界無法實現 2015 年《巴黎協定》規定的升溫 1.5 攝氏度的目標。逐步淘汰所有化石燃料（不僅僅是煤炭）和到 2025 年全球排放量達到峰值（據國際能源署稱，這無論如何都可能發生）的呼籲被許多石油出口國否決了。

雖然逐步減少所有化石燃料並沒有進入最終文本，但一個在峰會之前甚至沒有出現的, 與一個想法有關的勢頭越來越大。 Timmermans 說，現在有多達 80 個國家支持它，預計歐盟和其他國家將在未來一年就這個問題進行遊說。

隨著世界在努力應對能源危機，高昂的化石燃料價格填滿了主要生產國的金庫，碳大國的政治影響力在 COP27 上得到了展示。德國外交部長Annalena Baerbock 對 “被許多排放大國和石油生產國阻撓” 表示沮喪。隨著 COP28 遷移到石油和天然氣巨頭阿拉伯聯合酋長國，這場鬥爭可能會變得更加艱難。

6. 解凍美中關係

美國和中國在 COP27 上再次開始在氣候問題上合作。美國氣候特使克里和他的對手解振华振華周六表示，他們已經恢復了正式合作，該合作在眾議院議長佩洛西今年早些時候訪問台灣後暫停。

7.甲烷勢頭持續

更多國家簽署了去年在格拉斯哥發起的甲烷承諾。現在有 150 個國家承諾到本十年末將這種超強溫室氣體的排放量減少 30%。就連中國也表示已經制定了一項遏制甲烷排放的計劃草案，儘管它還沒有加入全球承諾。

8. 展示一些錢

對發展中國家來說, 這些會談的一個不變主題是為 “給我錢” - 或氣候融資，最近幾週在為清潔能源轉型提供資金方面取得了一些實際進展。 在 COP27 期間，宣布了兩項新的 Just Energy Transition Partnership 資助交易，使越南和印度尼西亞遠離煤電。 南非也獲得了其捐助者對其 85 億美元 JETP 計劃的最終批准，印度尼西亞將製定一項規模更大的 200 億美元協議以擺脫煤炭。

              So, while the final deal is a disappointment for those wanting to extend the ambitions of last year’s Glasgow agreement , and to some it is disappointing that the statement has not included a commitment to broaden the pledge to reduce emissions from using fossil fuels, yet overall we can see the efforts made to tackle climate change.

Note:

1. Antigua and Barbuda is a sovereign country in the West Indies. It lies at the juncture of the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean in the Leeward Islands part of the Lesser Antilles, at 17°N latitude. The country consists of two major islands, Antigua and Barbuda, approximately 40km (25 mi.) apart, and several smaller islands, including Great Bird, Green, Guiana, Long, Maiden, Prickly Pear, York Islands, and Redonda. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antigua_and_Barbuda)

2. Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) is an intergovernmental organization of low-lying coastal and small island countries. AOSIS was established in 1990. The main purpose of the alliance is to consolidate the voices of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) to address global warming.

3. Sharm El Sheikh is commonly abbreviated to Sharm is an Egyptian city on the southern tip of the Sinai Peninsula, in South Sinai Governorate, on the coastal strip along the Red Sea. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharm_El_Sheikh)

4. Work program on mitigation - At COP27, parties are due to adopt a ‘work programme to urgently scale up mitigation ambition and implementation’. This event will explore what the work programme should look like to strengthen countries and non-state action to close the 2030 emission gap for 1.5C. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qyhW12ytETM)