儘管價格創歷史新高，但中國買家仍尋求增加冬季液化天然氣進口

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Chinese buyers seek to boost LNG imports for winter despite record prices

Fri., October 1, 2021, 12:15 a.m.

By Jessica Jaganathan

SINGAPORE, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Chinese buyers are seeking more liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes despite record prices, bidding above market rates as the winter season starts with the country's gas inventory low, several trade sources told Reuters.

China, which has this year overtaken Japan as the world's top buyer of the super-chilled fuel, is grappling with its worst power outages in years in the northeast, triggered by coal shortages.

This in turn is pushing up demand for natural gas in power generation as Beijing orders energy and power companies to ensure sufficient supplies to avoid outages during winter when heating supply is crucial, the sources said.

"Chinese buyers have been asking and buying cargoes for winter and have been indicating prices at above market rates," a Singapore-based LNG trader said.

"In this market, there is no choice except to pay up to secure cargoes."

Spot Asian LNG prices surged to a record high of $34.47 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on Thursday, up more than 500% from the same period last year.

Typically, when spot prices surge, price-sensitive Chinese buyers would shun buying from spot market. But last week, Unipec, the trading arm of China's Sinopec, sought 11 LNG cargoes for winter and likely bought more than it required, traders said.

The state energy firm said on Thursday that it planned to import 13.3 billion cubic metres (bcm) of LNG this winter - about 9% higher than imports last winter - to operate its existing terminals at full capacity, and accelerate adding gas storage by the end of October.

Other Chinese majors including China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC) and PetroChina are also seeking cargoes to be delivered in winter, several trade sources said.

Gas inventory in China is at below average levels at some terminals, one trader said, citing private industry data, which is also stoking fears of further supply crunch within China.

However, the sharp spike in prices is keeping second-tier gas importers - which are mostly city-gas firms - at bay, the traders added.

With international gas prices currently about double domestic ones, these firms risk making huge losses when they sell to domestic consumers, they said.

To mitigate losses, China's finance ministry said on Thursday it will speed up approvals for value-added tax rebates on natural gas imports, to help boost winter energy supplies.

The potential financial risk could also be driving Chinese state majors to step up and procure cargoes to ensure there is enough supply during winter and ahead of the Winter Olympics to be held in February, they added.

CNOOC earlier this week signed a long-term deal with Qatar Petroleum, with supplies expected to start in January, which may also help meet demand.

Spot prices started surging during summer in the northern hemisphere amid hot weather and competition from Europe for LNG as gas inflows to the region slowed due to maintenance.

Buyers in Asia, including China, had kept purchases at a minimum hoping prices would drop in the off-peak season of September-October, but that never happened.

"China definitely does not have enough gas for winter. The question is whether this is going to cause demand destruction in the form of more power cuts," a Singapore-based trader said.

Translation

(路透新) 加坡 10 月 1 日 - 幾位貿易消息人士告訴路透，隨著冬季開始，及中國天然氣庫存較低, 所以儘管價格創紀錄, 中國買家仍出價高於市場價格, 在尋求更多液化天然氣 (LNG) 。

中國今年已超過日本成為世界上超級冷凍燃料的最大買家，但由於煤炭短缺引發了東北地區多年來最嚴重停電問題, 正在努力應對。

消息人士稱，這反過來又推高了對天然氣發電的需求，因為北京要求能源和電力公司確保充足的供應，以避免在供暖至關重要的冬季停電。

一位新加坡液化天然氣貿易商表示,“中國買家一直在詢問和購貨買給冬季使用，並一直標示出價高於市場的價格” 。

“在這個市場上，除了付款以保證貨物之外別無選擇。”

亞洲液化天然氣現貨價格週四飆升至每百萬英熱單位 (mmBtu) 34.47 美元的歷史新高，較去年同期上漲 500% 以上。

通常，當現貨價格飆升時，對價格敏感的中國買家會避免從現貨市場購買。但交易商稱，上週，中國石化的貿易部門聯合石化Unipec尋求 11 批冬季 LNG 船貨，而且採購量可能超出了必須要求。

這家國家能源公司週四表示，計劃在今年冬天進口 133 億立方米 (bcm) 的液化天然氣 - 比去年冬天的進口量高出約 9% - 以用盡行其現有港口負荷，並在十月底前加速增加天然氣儲存。

幾位貿易消息人士稱，包括中國海洋石油總公司 (CNOOC) 和中石油在內的其他中國大型石油公司也在尋求冬季交付的貨物。

一位貿易商援引私營行業數據稱，中國一些碼頭的天然氣庫存低於平均水平，這也引發了中國對進一步供應緊縮的擔憂。

然而，交易員補充說，價格的急劇飆升使二線天然氣進口商 - 主要是城市燃氣公司 - 望而卻步。

他們說，由於國際天然氣價格目前約為國內價格的兩倍，這些公司在向國內消費者出售天然氣時,可能會蒙受巨大損失。

為減輕損失，中國財政部周四表示，將加快批准天然氣進口增值稅退稅，以幫助增加冬季能源供應。

他們補充說，潛在的財務風險也可能促使中國國有大型企業加緊採購貨物，以確保在冬季和 2 月舉行的冬奧會之前有足夠的供應。

中海油本週早些時候與卡塔爾石油公司簽署了一項長期協議，預計將於 1 月開始供應，這也可能有助於滿足需求。

在炎熱的北半球的夏季天氣裡, 歐洲對液化天然氣的競爭購中, 及因為保養維修，輸入該地區的天然氣放緩, 現貨價格亦開始飆升。

包括中國在內的亞洲買家通常將採購量保持在最低水平，希望在 9 月至 10 月的淡季期間價格會下降，但這沒有發生。

一位新加坡貿易商表示 ,“中國絕對沒有足夠的冬天用氣。問題是它是否會以更多停電的形式去打退需求” 。

So, China this year has overtaken Japan as the world's top buyer of the super-chilled fuel. It is grappling with its worst power outages in years in the northeast that is triggered by coal shortages. I am interested in knowing how China will handle the situation in the long run.