中國華融攤牌 - 顯示北京對風險採取更嚴格的立場

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China Huarong Showdown Reveals Beijing’s Tougher Stance on Risk

Richard Frost

Bloomberg Wed., April 14, 2021, 1:42 a.m.

(Bloomberg) -- Market turmoil surrounding China Huarong Asset Management Co. intensified on Wednesday as investors interpreted government silence on the embattled firm as a lack of official support.

The Communist Party has yet to comment on the distressed-debt manager, which is controlled by the finance ministry, even as concern about a potential restructuring sent its dollar bonds plunging to distressed levels. China’s State Council, the country’s top administrative body, instead reinforced the idea that struggling state-backed companies shouldn’t rely on government support.

In a statement late Tuesday, the State Council urged local government financing vehicles to restructure or enter liquidation if they can’t repay their debts. While it’s unclear if the comments were meant to send a veiled message about China Huarong, they added to the perception that the government is taking a tough stance on reining in risks to the financial system.

The resulting turbulence in the offshore debt market is having an impact on fundraising for even blue-chip Chinese firms. Tencent Holdings Ltd., which along with other tech giants has also faced increased government scrutiny in recent months, is holding off marketing a planned dollar bond deal Wednesday to raise as much as $4 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.

Meanwhile, the selloff in China Huarong’s bonds is deepening, with the notes set for another day of record lows. The firm’s 4.5% perpetual dollar bond fell 9.7 cents on the dollar to 61.2 cents, Bloomberg-compiled prices show. The company, which has yet to publish its full-year earnings after missing a March 31 deadline, has said it has access to liquidity and is making payments on time.

“The lack of information is being taken negatively,” said Paul Lukaszewski, head of corporate debt for Asia Pacific at Aberdeen Standard Investments in Singapore. “Investors are increasingly concerned about the broader implications if Huarong’s offshore bonds are pushed into financial restructuring.”

Withdrawing support from weak or badly run companies is becoming an increasing trend in China as President Xi Jinping seeks to restrain growth in debt in the world’s second-largest economy. One consequence is that state-owned enterprises have replaced private firms as the country’s biggest source of defaults.

SOEs reneged on a record 79.5 billion yuan ($12.1 billion) of local bonds in 2020, lifting their share of onshore payment failures to 57% from 8.5% a year earlier, according to Fitch Ratings. The figure jumped to 72% in the first quarter of 2021.

The dilemma for authorities is how to avoid contagion spilling over into the financial system as investors reprice risk and sell bonds previously considered immune from default because of an implicit state guarantee.

An onshore default by a state-linked coal producer in November triggered a brief selloff in the nation’s credit market. Further defaults, including by chipmaker Tsinghua Unigroup Co., also caused short-term market volatility.

But failure to successfully tackle rising debt levels could fatally undermine the government’s efforts to build a world-class economy to rival that of the U.S.

Local government debt is of particular concern. Hidden debt at local levels was elevated to a “national security” issue at China’s annual legislative meetings last month. Local governments had 14.8 trillion yuan ($2.3 trillion) of hidden debt last year, and the figure could climb further this year, according to a government-linked think tank.

Like much of China’s debt issues, the problem with local government financing vehicles, or LGFVs, dates back to 2009 and the central government’s response to the global financial crisis. Barred from borrowing through official channels but facing funding shortfalls to pay for infrastructure stimulus, local governments created off-balance sheet financing vehicles.

No LGFV has defaulted on a public bond, and sales in 2020 hit a record 4.4 trillion yuan, but cracks have started to appear. Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co. this year failed to repay 915 million yuan of commercial bills.

“It is only a matter of time before an orderly breaking of the implicit guarantee for public-issued bonds, including LGFVs,” said Wu Qiong, executive director at BOC International Holdings Ltd.

Translation

（彭博）- 圍繞中國華融資產管理公司的市場動盪在周三加劇，因為投資者將政府對這家陷入困境的公司的沉默視為缺乏官方支持。

中共尚未對由財政部控制的不良債務管理人作出評論，儘管對潛在重組的擔憂已使其美元債券暴跌至不良水平。中國國務院作為中國最高行政機構，反而強化了一想法 -- 即使國有企業陷入困境, 也不應該依靠政府的支持。

國務院在星期二晚些時候發表的一份聲明中，敦促地方政府融資機構在無法償還債務的情況下進行重組或進入清算程序。儘管目前尚不清楚這些評論是否旨在傳達有關對中國華融的隱秘信息，但已增加了人們對政府在控制金融體系風險方面, 採取了強硬立場的看法。

由此產生的離岸債務市場動盪甚至影響績優的藍籌中國公司。知情人士說，最近幾個月，騰訊控股有限公司（Tencent Holdings Ltd.）與其他科技巨頭也面臨著越來越多的政府審查。騰訊正推遲推銷計劃中籌集多達40億美元的美元債券交易。

與此同時，拋售中國華融債券正在加深，票據預期再創歷史新低。彭博社彙編的價格顯示，該公司的4.5％永久美元債券兌美元匯率下跌9.7美仙，至61.2美仙。該公司在錯過3月31日的截止日期後, 仍未公佈其全年收益。該公司表示已獲得流動資產並正在按時付款。

在新加坡的Aberdeen Standard Investments亞太區企業債務主管Paul Lukaszewski  表示：“缺乏信息令人擔憂。” “如果華融的離岸債券被推向金融重組，投資者將越來越擔心其更廣泛的影響。”

隨著習近平主席力圖抑制全球第二大經濟體的債務增長，從軟弱或經營不善的公司中撤出支持正在成為中國的一種增長趨勢。後果之一是，國有企業已取代私營企業，成為該國最大的違約來源。

惠譽國際評級（Fitch Ratings）的數據顯示，在2020年國有企業把創紀錄的795億元人民幣（121億美元）的地方債券回歸到承諾，將其在岸支付失敗的比例從上年的8.5％提高至57％。該數字在2021年第一季度躍升至72％。

當局的困境是, 在投資者對風險進行重新定價, 並出售先前因隱性國家擔保而被視為不受違約影響的債券時，避免將傳染性地蔓延至金融體系。

在十一月, 曾有一國有煤炭生產商發生在岸違約事件, 引發了該國信貸市場的短暫拋售。更多的違約行為，包括芯片製造商清華紫光集團(Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co.)的違約行為，也造成了短期的市場波動。

但是，無力解決不斷上升的債務水平, 可能致命地破壞政府為建立世界一流經濟體係以與美國相抗衡的努力。

地方政府債務尤其令人擔憂。上個月在中國的年度立法會議上，地方上的隱性債務被提升為“國家安全”問題。據與政府相關的智囊團稱，去年地方政府的隱性債務為14.8萬億元人民幣（2.3萬億美元），今年這一數字可能會進一步攀升。

像中國的許多債務問題一樣，地方政府融資工具 (LGFV) 的問題可以追溯到2009年，及中央政府對應全球金融危機的反應。面對禁止通過官方渠道借貸，但資金不足以支付刺激基礎設施費用情況之下，地方政府創建了資產負債表以外的融資工具。

沒有LGFV在公共債券違約，2020年的銷售額達到了創紀錄的4.4萬億元，但裂縫已經開始顯現。重慶能源投資集團有限公司(Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co.) 今年未能償還9.15億元的商業票據。

中銀國際控股有限公司執行董事Wu Qiong表示：“有序地打破對包括LGFV在內的公共發行債券的隱含擔保，只是時間問題。”

       So, China will be busy in dealing with the debts of the local governing bodies.

Note:

a. China Huarong Asset Management Co., Ltd. (中國華融資產管理公司) was established on November 1, 1999. On September 28, 2012, with the approval of the State Council, the company was restructured into a company limited by shares. On October 30, 2015, China Huarong was listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. China Huarong provides non-performing asset management, asset management, banking, securities, trust, financial leasing, investment, futures, consumer finance and other financial services. (http://www.chamc.com.cn/gyhr/gsjj/index.shtml)