深刻的中國資本流動戰比以往任何時候都更加激烈 (1 of 2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China’s Epic Battle with Capital Flows Is More Intense Than Ever (1 of 2)

Sofia Horta e Costa and Enda Curran

Bloomberg Tue., April 6, 2021, 1:00 p.m.

(Bloomberg) -- In 2020, China’s efforts to lure foreign funds into its borders finally paid off. Investors from New York to London clamored for its stocks and bonds, cementing the nation’s position on the global stage.

Against the wreckage of the global economy and with unprecedented stimulus unleashed by central banks, China’s resilience to the coronavirus and its higher-yielding assets looked attractive. The result was a 62% increase in overseas holdings of local stocks from a year earlier to 3.4 trillion yuan ($520 billion), a 47% fillip for the bond market to 3.3 trillion yuan, and the Chinese currency’s best quarter in more than a decade. Foreign investors bought another net $53.5 billion worth of Chinese debt in January and February this year, according to Gavekal Dragonomics.

But that influx -- and influence -- is now creating a headache for the Communist Party. China has long been paranoid about the risks posed by capital flows, especially after a messy currency devaluation in 2015, which is why authorities maintain strict controls on money entering and leaving the country. The scale of the inflows places the country at risk of asset bubbles, which would burst were that money to start pouring out.

“The moment this demand becomes too big to manage and starts to pressure financial stability -- or create a threat or risk to financial stability -- it will be curbed,” said Paola Subacchi, professor of International Economics at the University of London’s Queen Mary Global Policy Institute and author of ‘The People’s Money: How China Is Building a Global Currency.’

Foreign presence in modern China’s capital markets has never been so great: Beijing has in recent years carved out channels to let funds in, opening stock and bond trading links via Hong Kong and pushing for the inclusion of yuan-denominated assets in major global benchmarks. The overarching goal was to help make markets more efficient and powerful. Institutions such as pension funds would provide stability to a stock market reliant on speculators, while boosting liquidity in a moribund sovereign bond market.

Global pandemic stimulus has in some ways made China a victim of its own success. This was illustrated by a November report compiled by the Asian Consultative Council of the Bank for International Settlements, which looked at the impact of capital flows. The People’s Bank of China, one of 12 central banks in the working group, noted that “sharp exchange rate fluctuations and large capital flows would threaten financial stability and have negative real economic consequences.”

(to be continued)

Translation

（彭博社）- 2020年，中國吸引外國資金進入其邊境的努力終於獲得了回報。從紐約到倫敦的投資者大力追捧其股票和債券，鞏固了該國在全球舞台上的地位。

在全球經濟不景氣的情況下，以及中央銀行推出了前所未有的刺激措施，中國對冠狀病毒的抵禦力及其高收益資產看起來很有吸引力。結果是，海外持有的本地股票比上年同期增長了62％，達到人民幣3.4萬億元（約合5,200億美元），債券市場受追捧增長47％，使收益率達到人民幣3.3萬億元，是人民幣十多年來最好的一個季度。根據Gavekal Dragonomics的數據，今年一月和二月，外國投資者又淨購買了價值535億美元的中國債券。

但是，這種湧入和影響現在為共產黨製造麻煩。長期以來，中國一直對資本流動帶來的風險抱有偏執狂，特別是在2015年人民幣匯率混亂大幅度貶值之後，這就是為什麼當局對進入和離開該國的資金實行嚴格控制的原因。資金流入的規模使該國面臨資產泡沫的風險，一旦資金開始大量離開，資產泡沫就會爆破。

倫敦大學瑪麗皇后學院全球政策研究所國際經濟學教授Paola Subacch, 亦都是《人民的錢：中國如何建立全球貨幣》一書的作者表示：“這種需求在變得太大而無法應付，並開始對金融穩定施加壓力 - 或對金融穩定造成威脅或風險 - 是將會被遏止。”

外國人在現代中國資本市場上的存在從未如此強大：近年來，北京已經開闢了渠道，允許資金進入，通過香港開放股票和債券交易鏈接，並推動將以人民幣計價的資產納入主要的全球基準。總體目標是幫助提高市場效率和實力。養老基金等機構將為依賴投機者的股票市場提供穩定的基礎，同時提高快速衰落的主權債券市場的流動性。

全球病毒大流行救市刺激行動在某種程度上使中國成為自己成功的受害者。國際清算銀行亞洲協商理事會在11月的一份報告中對此進行了說明，該報告著眼於資本流動的影響。中國人民銀行是該工作組的12個中央銀行之一，它指出 “匯率急劇波動和大量資本流動將威脅金融穩定，並對實際經濟產生負面影響。”

(to be continued)