美元在全球儲備中所佔份額降至1995年以來最低水平

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Dollar’s Share of Global Reserves Sinks to Lowest Since 1995

Susanne Barton and Daniela Sirtori-Cortina

Bloomberg Wed., March 31, 2021, 12:05 p.m.

(Bloomberg) -- The dollar’s share of global currency reserves dropped in the fourth quarter to around 59%, the lowest in 25 years, according to International Monetary Fund data.

The slide came in a quarter when a gauge of the greenback fell the most since 2010, and amid questions about how long the dollar can maintain its status as the pre-eminent reserve currency. The Chinese renminbi is transforming into a force to be reckoned with in currency markets, with more yuan changing hands than ever before in London, the world’s leading foreign-exchange center.

“This is a slow burn theme, but we are of the view that we’re eventually headed into a ‘multiple reserve currency’ framework over time,” Bipan Rai, a strategist at CIBC, said via email.

In the fourth quarter, the euro’s share of official foreign-exchange reserves climbed to 21.2% from 20.5%, while the yuan’s rose to almost 2.3% from 2.1%. The renminbi accounted for 1.94% in the final three months of 2019.

For Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global, the drop in the dollar’s share of global reserves is temporary and was driven by its slide against most currencies in the fourth quarter. He’s focusing on data that shows dollar holdings among central banks climbed to $7 trillion, a record, noting that the percentage changes are “distorted” by short-term valuation changes.

“The 59% is a statistical noise generated by a combination of valuation and material changes” in demand for the euro in the fourth quarter, he said in an email. “The dollar’s recovery in Q1 21 will reverse the valuation adjustment and will see the dollar share of reserves increase.”

With its rebound this year, the dollar is heading for its best quarterly performance in a year, up by 2.8%. The greenback is still the most dominant currency used, with data from the Bank for International Settlements showing it’s on one side of 88% of all trades.

Translation

（彭博社）- 根據國際貨幣基金組織的數據，美元在全球貨幣儲備中的份額在第四季度下降至約59％，為25年來最低。

這是美元自2010年以來最大的季度跌幅，同時使人存有質疑美元可維持其作為傑出儲備貨幣的地位多久。中國人民幣正在轉變為一種在外匯市場上不容忽視的力量，在世界領先的外匯交易中心倫敦，人民幣買賣數量比以往任何時候都要多。

CIBC的策略師Bipan Rai通過電子郵件表示： “這是一個緩慢發展課題，但我們認為隨著時間的推移，我們最終將進入一個 “多種儲備貨幣” 的 框架。

在第四季度，在歐元官方外匯儲備中的份額從20.5％上升至21.2％，而人民幣從2.1％上升至近2.3％。在2019年的最後三個月中，人民幣佔1.94％。

對於Bannockburn Global首席市場策略師Marc Chandler而言，美元在全球儲備中的份額下降是暫時的，並且受到第四季度美元兌多數貨幣匯率下滑的推動。他關注的數據顯示，中央銀行持有的美元資產攀升至7萬億美元，創下歷史新高，並指出，由於短期估值變化，這一百分比變化已“扭曲”。

有関第四季度對歐元的需求, 他在一封電子郵件中說，“ 59％是由於估值和重大變化共同導致的統計噪聲”。 “美元在21年第1季度的複蘇將逆轉估值調整，並使美元在外匯儲備中的份額增加。”

隨著今年的反彈，美元正朝著一年來最好的季度表現邁進，增長了2.8％。美元仍然是使用最主要的貨幣，來自國際清算銀行的數據顯示，美元佔所有交易的88％。

              So, the Chinese yuan is becoming more popular. It could slowly challenge the leadership of dollar in the world trade as a leading currency.