深刻的中國資本流動戰比以往任何時候都更加激烈 (2 of 2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China’s Epic Battle with Capital Flows Is More Intense Than Ever (2 of 2)

Sofia Horta e Costa and Enda Curran

Bloomberg Tue., April 6, 2021, 1:00 p.m.

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After last year’s vast inflows, those concerns are now starting to resonate in China’s onshore markets. Expectations of strong growth in the U.S. economy have begun driving Treasury yields higher, narrowing the premium offered by Chinese debt by about 1 percentage point since a record in November. They’re also buoying the dollar and punishing the yuan, which in March weakened about 1.3%. The CSI 300 Index of stocks has fallen more than 10% from this year’s high. The risk of a comeuppance is building.

“Outflows are always an important worry,” said David Qu, an economist at Bloomberg Economics. “Authorities may also be worried that inflows, particularly hot money, may become outflows once market conditions change.”

Official comments have only grown louder in recent months. In a March 20 speech, top securities regulator Yi Huiman said large flows of “hot money” into China must be strictly controlled. In unusually blunt comments in early March, banking regulator Guo Shuqing said he was “very worried” that asset bubbles in overseas markets would burst soon, posing a risk to the global economy. Li Daokui, a former central bank adviser, blamed the potential for instability on U.S. pandemic relief.

To manage and counterbalance the inflows, China has steadily granted an additional quota for onshore funds to invest in securities overseas, in March boosting it to $135 billion -- the highest ever. Other measures include encouraging mutual funds to invest in Hong Kong stocks, which led to record flows into the city in January, and asking financial institutions to limit the amount of offshore financing. Hong Kong in December said it was discussing plans to allow mainland investors to trade bonds in the city, which would also encourage outflows.

But those steps are incremental, showing policy makers are wary of going too far the other way. China may struggle to open its financial borders without in some way being at the mercy of Federal Reserve actions, like other emerging economies. The U.S.’s easy monetary policy in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis fueled bubbles in countries from Indonesia to Thailand, which burst when the Fed prepared to raise interest rates.

 The Fed responded to the pandemic with similar policies to those of 2008 but far faster -- and further. Its balance sheet is now near $7.7 trillion, compared to $4 trillion early last year and the previous peak of $4.5 trillion in 2015. That’s equivalent to about 36% of the country’s gross domestic output, a record.

There are few economies that can absorb that kind of money. China’s $10.9 trillion equity market and $18 trillion bond market make the country an obvious target.

“China is going to be a very attractive place for capital,” said Wen-Wen Lindroth, lead cross-asset strategist for Fidelity International. “The long term growth rate – the gap they have with income – versus developed markets means they have lot more scope to develop,” she said.

The question now is how China deals with this issue, which will become even more pressing as the weighting of yuan assets in global benchmarks increases, drawing in billions of extra dollars. Allowing more outflows will reduce the risk of bubbles, but increases the potential for money to flood out too quickly -- as the country witnessed in the wake of the 2015 currency devaluation.

“China has long been very careful about opening its capital account, and that cautious approach is still the most probable one,” Wei He, China Economist at Gavekal, wrote in a March 31 report.

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經過去年的大量流入之後，這些擔憂現在開始在中國的在岸市場引起回響。對美國經濟強勁增長的預期已開始推動國債收益率上升，使中國國債的溢價自11月創紀錄高位以來縮水了約1個百分點。他們還提振美元並懲罰人民幣，3月份人民幣貶值了約1.3％。滬深300指數已經從今年的高點下跌了10％以上。出現某應得的懲罰的風險正在增加。

彭博經濟研究所（Bloomberg Economics）的經濟學家David Qu表示：“外流始終是一個重要問題” 。 “當局也可能擔心，一旦市場狀況發生變化，流入的資金，特別是游資可能會流出。”

官方評論最近幾個月才變得更大聲。在3月20日的演講中，最高證券監管機構Yi Huiman表示，必須嚴格控制流入中國的大量 “熱錢” 。 3月初，銀行業監管機構郭樹清 (Guo Shuqing) 表示，他 “非常擔心” 海外市場的資產泡沫將很快破裂，對全球經濟構成風險。前中央銀行顧問李稻葵 (Li Daokui) 將潛在的不穩定歸咎於美國的病毒大流行救市。

為了管理和平衡資金流入，中國穩定地增加了對在岸基金的金額，以用於投資海外證券，3月將其額度提高至1,350億美元，這是有史以來的最高水平。其他措施包括鼓勵互惠基金投資香港股票，導致創紀錄的一月流入香港；以及要求金融機構限制離岸融資額。去年12月香港表示正在討論允許內地投資者在香港交易債券的計劃，這也將鼓勵資金外流。

但是這些步驟是漸進的，表明政策制定者對採取其他措施持謹慎態度。與其他新興經濟體一樣，中國掙扎開放其金融邊界時, 可能在某種程度上難以不受美聯儲局這行動的影響。 2008年全球金融危機爆發後，美國的寬鬆貨幣政策助長了印尼到泰國等國家的泡沫，而當美聯儲局準備加息時，泡沫就破滅了。

對於病毒大流行，美聯儲局採取了類似2008年的政策，但速度要快得多和深入得多。它的資產負債表目前接近7.7萬億美元，而去年初為4萬億美元，2015年曾達到峰值4. 5萬億美元。這大約相當於該國國內生產總值的36％，創下紀錄。

很少有經濟體可以吸收這種錢。中國10.9萬億美元的股票市場和18萬億美元的債券市場使該國成為明顯的目標。

富達國際（Fidelity International）首席跨資產策略師Wen-Wen Lindroth表示：“中國將成為對資本極具吸引力的地方” 。她說：“其長期增長率（與收入之間的差距）與發達市場相比，意味著它們有更大的發展空間” 。

現在的問題是中國如何處理這一問題，隨著人民幣資產在全球基準中的比重增加，這一問題將變得更加緊迫, 亦導致數十億美元的額外流入。允許更多的資金流出將減少泡沫的風險，但會增加資金氾濫的可能性，正如該國在2015年貨幣貶值後所見證的那樣。

中國經濟學家Wei He在Gavekal的3月31日的報告中寫道：“長期以來，中國在開放資本賬戶方面一直非常謹慎，而謹慎的做法仍然是最有可能的。”

              So, China has to deal with the hot money from overseas. To manage and counterbalance the inflows, China grants additional quotas for onshore funds to invest in securities overseas. Other measures include encouraging mutual funds to invest in Hong Kong stocks, which has led to a record flow into the city in January 2021. This can explain why the stocks market in Hong Kong saw a sharp fluctuation in the past few months.