Cancer "Fifth Treatment" - Kansai Medical University - World's First Research Institute by 2022

Recently Nihon Keizai Shimbun Electronic Edition reported the following:

がん「第5の治療法」世界初の研究所　関西医大、22年に

大阪

2021年4月12日 11:58 [有料会員限定]

関西医科大学（大阪府枚方市）は2022年4月に、「第5のがん治療法」として期待を集める「光免疫療法」で世界初の研究所を設立する。開発者で所長に就任する米国立衛生研究所（NIH）の小林久隆主任研究員は12日、現在対象の顔や首のがんに加え「乳がんなどへの適用も検討する」と話した。様々ながんの患者に新たな選択肢を提供する。

光免疫療法はまず、がん細胞と結びつく薬剤を患者へ投与する。薬剤ががんの近くに集まった後に、近赤外線のレーザー光を当ててピンポイントで破壊する。

NIHの小林主任研究員が発明し、楽天グループの楽天メディカル（米カリフォルニア州）の前身企業が特許のライセンスを取得して開発を進めた。12年には当時のオバマ米大統領が一般教書演説で取り上げて注目を集め、手術、放射線、抗がん剤、免疫薬に続く「第5のがん治療法」と呼ばれる。

楽天メディカルが実施した米国での臨床試験（治験）では、従来の治療で効果がなかった頭頸（とうけい）部がんの患者30人のうち、43%にあたる13人でがんが消えたり縮んだりした。

20年9月に楽天メディカル子会社が、世界に先駆けて日本で製造販売の承認を取得。現在は日本だけで治療に使え、3月中旬時点で国立がん研究センター東病院（千葉県柏市）や愛知県がんセンター病院（名古屋市）など、全国の約20の病院が導入している。

関西医大が新設する光免疫医学研究所は「光免疫療法」や「免疫」などの3部門に分かれ、約30人が在籍する予定だ。現在は外からレーザーを当てやすい頭頸部がんに限られている。対象を患者数が多い大腸がんや皮膚がんに広げたり、副作用を抑えたりするための研究を進める。

内視鏡で体の深部にレーザーを当てたり、全身の免疫をうまく調整して副作用を抑えたりする技術開発が求められる。所長に就任する小林氏は「まず乳がんや食道がん、子宮頸（けい）がんが対象として有望。将来的にはがん患者の8割に役に立てるようにしたい」と話す。

18年にノーベル生理学・医学賞を受賞した本庶佑・京都大学特別教授が開発した免疫薬との併用や、免疫細胞の働きを抑える細胞をたたく治療法の開発も選択肢に挙がる。

研究所では治験も進める。小林氏は「特に臨床では高いレベルで、楽天メディカルと連携したい」と話す。楽天メディカルジャパンの担当者は「治療法開発へ可能な限りサポートしていきたい」と話す。関西医大の臨床部門と連携し、患者のがん組織を調べるなどして治療効果を高める。

光免疫療法の治療薬の価格は患者の体の大きさにより異なるが、平均すると1回投与当たり約400万円で、最大4回まで使える。国の医療保険などで患者負担は1回最大で約30万円だ。

楽天メディカルは光免疫療法と免疫薬を併用する治験を、米国で頭頸部がんと皮膚がんを対象に進めている。国立がん研究センター東病院も食道がんで光免疫療法の医師主導の治験を進めているほか、胃がんでも計画中だ。

Translation

In April 2022, Kansai Medical University (Hirakata City, Osaka Prefecture) would establish the world's first research institute for "photoimmunotherapy" which was expected to be the "fifth cancer treatment method." Hisataka Kobayashi, a senior researcher at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) who as the institute developer would become the director had said on the 12th that he would "consider applying it to breast cancer, etc." in addition face and neck cancers that were the current targets. New options for patients with different cancers would be made available.

Photoimmunotherapy would first administer to the patient a drug that could bind to cancer cells. After the drug had gathered near the cancer, its cells would be pinpointed and a near-infrared laser beam would be applied to destroy the cells.

This was invented by Senior Researcher Kobayashi of NIH who obtained a patent license from the predecessor company of Rakuten Medical (California, USA) of the Rakuten Group and proceeded with the development. In 2012, US President Barack Obama picked it up in a State of the Union address and attention was attracted, and it was called the "fifth cancer treatment method" following surgery, radiation, anticancer drugs, and immunological drugs.

In a clinical trial conducted by Rakuten Medical in the United States, out of 30 patients with head and neck cancer that were ineffective with conventional treatments, 13 out of 30 patients, or 43%, had their cancer disappeared or shrunk.

In September 2020, Rakuten Medical Subsidiary was the first in the world to obtain manufacturing and marketing approval in Japan. Currently, it could be used for treatment only in Japan, and as of mid-March, it had been introduced by about 20 hospitals nationwide, including the National Cancer Center Hospital East (Kashiwa City, Chiba Prefecture) and the Aichi Cancer Center Hospital (Nagoya City).

The Institute of Photoimmunotherapy, which would be newly established by Kansai Medical University, could be divided into three departments including "photoimmunotherapy" and "immunity", and about 30 people might be enrolled. Currently, it was limited to head and neck cancer, which was easy to receive laser externally. Targets could be expanded to cover colorectal cancer and skin cancer which had a large number of patients, and research would be advanced to suppress treatment side effects.

Technological development would be required to beam laser at the deep part of the body with an endoscope, and to control the immunity of the whole body to suppress side effects. Mr. Kobayashi, who would become the director said, "First of all, breast cancer, esophageal cancer, and cervical cancer are promising targets. In the future, we would like to make it useful for 80% of cancer patients."

Options available included to combine its use with an immunosuppressive drug developed by Tasuku Honjo who was a distinguished professor at Kyoto University and had won the Nobel Prize in Physiology/Medicine in 2018, and to develop a treatment method that struck cells which suppressed the function of immune cells.

The laboratory would also proceed with clinical trials. Mr. Kobayashi said, "I want to collaborate with Rakuten Medical, especially at a high level in clinical practice." A person in charge at Rakuten Medical Japan said, "I want to support the development of treatment methods as much as possible." In collaboration with the clinical department of Kansai Medical University, the laboratory improved the therapeutic effect by examining the cancer tissue of patients etc.

The price of a photoimmunotherapy drug varied depending on the size of the patient's body, but the average price could be about 4 million yen per dose, and up to 4 doses could be used. Under the national medical insurance etc., the maximum burden on patients could be about 300,000 yen for one dose.

Rakuten Medical was conducting clinical trials of photoimmunotherapy and immunosuppressive drugs in the United States for head and neck cancer on top of skin cancer. The National Cancer Center Hospital East was also conducting a doctor-led clinical trial of photoimmunotherapy for esophageal cancer, and was planning for gastric cancer.

              So, this is good news for cancer patients. It is called the "fifth cancer treatment method" following surgery, radiation, anticancer drugs, and immunological drugs.

A research on China's Bitcoin mining – its recent carbon emissions are comparable to some European countries

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

中国のビットコイン採掘、近く炭素排出量で一部欧州国に匹敵か　研究

2021.04.10 Sat posted at 18:00 JST

ニューヨーク（ＣＮＮ Ｂｕｓｉｎｅｓｓ） 仮想通貨（暗号資産）ビットコインの人気が高まる中国では近く、ビットコイン採掘による炭素排出量だけで、欧州の一部の国の総排出量に匹敵する可能性がある――。そんな研究結果が科学誌ネイチャー・コミュニケーションズに発表された。

研究によると、ビットコイン関連のエネルギー消費がピークを迎える２０２４年には、中国だけで炭素排出量が１億３０００万トンを超える見通し。

これはチェコやカタールの１６年の総排出量を上回る値となる。英ケンブリッジ大学のシナン・クフェオグル助教（土木工学）が手掛けた今回の研究によると、ビットコインのブロックチェーン（分散型台帳）による年間のエネルギー消費量は、デンマークやアイルランド、バングラデシュといった小～中規模国に匹敵する可能性があるという。

ビットコイン人気が高まるなか、中国はその中心地となりつつある。今回の研究によると、中国のビットコイン産業を一つの国とみなした場合、１６年のエネルギー総消費量はイタリアやサウジアラビアといった主要経済国を超えて世界１２位に入っていた計算になる。

専用ハードウェアや安価な電力が簡単に手に入る中国は今や、一国だけでビットコインネットワークのハッシュ力の７５％以上を占める。ハッシュ力とは、コンピューターやハードウェアがアルゴリズムの実行と解決に使う力のこと。こうしたアルゴリズムにより、新たにビットコインの総量を生成し、ビットコイン間の取引を行うことが可能になる。

ビットコイン人気の高まりにつれ、採掘に使われるハードウェアは変化してきた。研究チームによると、採掘は当初、汎用コンピューターの中央演算処理装置（ＣＰＵ）で行われていた。

その後、採掘過程がパワーやハッシュレートで勝るＧＰＵ（画像処理装置）に移行した結果、エネルギー消費量が増大。最終的には、採掘関連の計算を最適化する目的で「特定用途向け集積回路（ＡＳＩＣＳ）」が導入された。

Translation

New York (CNN Business) -- Cryptocurrency (cryptographic asset) Bitcoin was becoming more popular in China, and the carbon emissions from Bitcoin mining alone could be comparable to the total emissions of some European countries.  The results of such research were published in the scientific journal Nature Communications.

According to research, carbon emissions in China alone were expected to exceed 130 million tons in 2024, when Bitcoin-related energy consumption peaks.

This was higher than the total emissions of the Czech Republic and Qatar in 2016. According to this study by the Assistant Professor Sinan Kufeoguru (Civil Engineering) of the University of Cambridge, it was said that the annual energy consumption of Bitcoin blockchain (distributed ledger) might be comparable to small to medium-sized countries such as Denmark, Ireland and Bangladesh.

With the growing popularity of Bitcoin, China was becoming the center of it. According to this study, if China's Bitcoin industry was regarded as one country, total energy consumption in 2016 had exceeded the major economies such as Italy and Saudi Arabia, and would be ranked 12th in the world.

China, where dedicated hardware and cheap electricity were readily available, now accounted for more than 75% of the hashing power of Bitcoin networks alone. Hashing power was the power that computers and hardware used to execute and solve algorithms. With such an algorithm, it became possible to generate a new total amount of Bitcoins, and carried out transactions between Bitcoins.

With the growing popularity of Bitcoin, the hardware used for mining had changed. According to the research team, mining was initially carried out on the central processing unit (CPU) of a general-purpose computer.

Then, the mining process was shifted to GPU (Graphic processing unit) which was superior in power and hash rate, and as a result energy consumption increased. Eventually, "Application-specific integrated circuits (ASICS)" were introduced for the purpose of optimizing mining-related calculations.

              So, in bitcoin mining process sees a lot of improvement in recent years. The use of the central processing unit (CPU) of a general-purpose computer has been shifted to GPU (graphic processing unit) which is superior in hash rate. Also, "Application-specific integrated circuits (ASICS)" are introduced for the purpose of optimizing mining-related calculations. It is also noted that the bitcoin mining process is related to blockchain.

Notes: 

1“Hash-rate” refers to the total combined computational power that is being used to mine and process transactions on a Proof-of-Work blockchain, such as Bitcoin. 

2.      The mining process and efficiency have improved with the use of better hardware in recent years. Graphics Processing Units (GPU) have been used in the mining process because they are more efficient. (https://www.investopedia.com/tech/gpu-cryptocurrency-mining)

美國與越南將相互解決貨幣問題 - 美國特使說

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

U.S., Vietnam to Mutually Resolve Currency Issue, Says U.S. Envoy

Nguyen Xuan Quynh

Bloomberg Tue., April 6, 2021, 9:58 p.m.

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S and Vietnam will work through differences over the Southeast Asian country’s currency and timber practices, U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam Daniel J. Kritenbrink said during a Hanoi briefing.

The two nations are managing their differences “in a responsible way” and have common views on the South China Sea, he said.

Vietnam’s currency had become a target in the Trump administration even as the former enemies continued to become closer to counter China’s rising military and economic might in the region. The U.S. has refrained from hitting Vietnam with punitive tariffs even after the U.S. Treasury designated the Hanoi government as a currency manipulator and the U.S. Trade Representative labeled Vietnam’s currency actions unreasonable and restrictive to American businesses.

The U.S. has also expressed concerns about alleged illegal timber practices.

The U.S. opposes the actions of other countries in the region, particularly China, whose intentions appear to be set on “intimidating, provoking and threatening other countries,” he said.

“I am confident that progress in our relationship will continue under the Biden administration,” he said. President Joe Biden has reiterated that it’s in the national interest of the U.S. to support a “strong and independent Vietnam,” Kritenbrink added.

Kritenbrink, ambassador since 2017, has been nominated by Biden to be assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs.

Translation

（彭博社）- 美國駐越南大使Daniel J. Kritenbrink在河內簡報會上說，美國和越南將處理与東南亞國家在處置貨幣和木材的上的分歧。

他說，兩國正在“以負責任的態度”處理分歧，亦對南中國海有共同的看法。

越南貨幣曾成為特朗普政府的目標，儘管這前度敵人繼續變得越來越接近抵制中國在該地區日益增長的軍事和經濟實力。即使美國財政部指定河內政府為貨幣操縱國，而美國貿易代表亦將越南的匯率行動標記為不合理, 且對美國企業構成限制，但美國仍避免對越南施加懲罰性關稅。

 美國還對所謂的非法木材行為表示關注。

他說，美國反對該地區其他國家，特別是中國的行動，其意圖似乎是“恐嚇，挑釁和威脅其他國家”。

Kritenbrink說： “我相信在拜登政府領導下，我們的關係將繼續取得進展。” 他又補充說總統拜登重申支持“強大而獨立的越南” 是符合美國的國家利益。

自2017年以來擔任大使的Kritenbrink已被拜登提名為東亞和太平洋事務助理國務卿。

              So, Vietnam is a country in South-east Asia that is allying with the US to counteract the influence from China in the region.

中國華融攤牌 - 顯示北京對風險採取更嚴格的立場

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China Huarong Showdown Reveals Beijing’s Tougher Stance on Risk

Richard Frost

Bloomberg Wed., April 14, 2021, 1:42 a.m.

(Bloomberg) -- Market turmoil surrounding China Huarong Asset Management Co. intensified on Wednesday as investors interpreted government silence on the embattled firm as a lack of official support.

The Communist Party has yet to comment on the distressed-debt manager, which is controlled by the finance ministry, even as concern about a potential restructuring sent its dollar bonds plunging to distressed levels. China’s State Council, the country’s top administrative body, instead reinforced the idea that struggling state-backed companies shouldn’t rely on government support.

In a statement late Tuesday, the State Council urged local government financing vehicles to restructure or enter liquidation if they can’t repay their debts. While it’s unclear if the comments were meant to send a veiled message about China Huarong, they added to the perception that the government is taking a tough stance on reining in risks to the financial system.

The resulting turbulence in the offshore debt market is having an impact on fundraising for even blue-chip Chinese firms. Tencent Holdings Ltd., which along with other tech giants has also faced increased government scrutiny in recent months, is holding off marketing a planned dollar bond deal Wednesday to raise as much as $4 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.

Meanwhile, the selloff in China Huarong’s bonds is deepening, with the notes set for another day of record lows. The firm’s 4.5% perpetual dollar bond fell 9.7 cents on the dollar to 61.2 cents, Bloomberg-compiled prices show. The company, which has yet to publish its full-year earnings after missing a March 31 deadline, has said it has access to liquidity and is making payments on time.

“The lack of information is being taken negatively,” said Paul Lukaszewski, head of corporate debt for Asia Pacific at Aberdeen Standard Investments in Singapore. “Investors are increasingly concerned about the broader implications if Huarong’s offshore bonds are pushed into financial restructuring.”

Withdrawing support from weak or badly run companies is becoming an increasing trend in China as President Xi Jinping seeks to restrain growth in debt in the world’s second-largest economy. One consequence is that state-owned enterprises have replaced private firms as the country’s biggest source of defaults.

SOEs reneged on a record 79.5 billion yuan ($12.1 billion) of local bonds in 2020, lifting their share of onshore payment failures to 57% from 8.5% a year earlier, according to Fitch Ratings. The figure jumped to 72% in the first quarter of 2021.

The dilemma for authorities is how to avoid contagion spilling over into the financial system as investors reprice risk and sell bonds previously considered immune from default because of an implicit state guarantee.

An onshore default by a state-linked coal producer in November triggered a brief selloff in the nation’s credit market. Further defaults, including by chipmaker Tsinghua Unigroup Co., also caused short-term market volatility.

But failure to successfully tackle rising debt levels could fatally undermine the government’s efforts to build a world-class economy to rival that of the U.S.

Local government debt is of particular concern. Hidden debt at local levels was elevated to a “national security” issue at China’s annual legislative meetings last month. Local governments had 14.8 trillion yuan ($2.3 trillion) of hidden debt last year, and the figure could climb further this year, according to a government-linked think tank.

Like much of China’s debt issues, the problem with local government financing vehicles, or LGFVs, dates back to 2009 and the central government’s response to the global financial crisis. Barred from borrowing through official channels but facing funding shortfalls to pay for infrastructure stimulus, local governments created off-balance sheet financing vehicles.

No LGFV has defaulted on a public bond, and sales in 2020 hit a record 4.4 trillion yuan, but cracks have started to appear. Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co. this year failed to repay 915 million yuan of commercial bills.

“It is only a matter of time before an orderly breaking of the implicit guarantee for public-issued bonds, including LGFVs,” said Wu Qiong, executive director at BOC International Holdings Ltd.

Translation

（彭博）- 圍繞中國華融資產管理公司的市場動盪在周三加劇，因為投資者將政府對這家陷入困境的公司的沉默視為缺乏官方支持。

中共尚未對由財政部控制的不良債務管理人作出評論，儘管對潛在重組的擔憂已使其美元債券暴跌至不良水平。中國國務院作為中國最高行政機構，反而強化了一想法 -- 即使國有企業陷入困境, 也不應該依靠政府的支持。

國務院在星期二晚些時候發表的一份聲明中，敦促地方政府融資機構在無法償還債務的情況下進行重組或進入清算程序。儘管目前尚不清楚這些評論是否旨在傳達有關對中國華融的隱秘信息，但已增加了人們對政府在控制金融體系風險方面, 採取了強硬立場的看法。

由此產生的離岸債務市場動盪甚至影響績優的藍籌中國公司。知情人士說，最近幾個月，騰訊控股有限公司（Tencent Holdings Ltd.）與其他科技巨頭也面臨著越來越多的政府審查。騰訊正推遲推銷計劃中籌集多達40億美元的美元債券交易。

與此同時，拋售中國華融債券正在加深，票據預期再創歷史新低。彭博社彙編的價格顯示，該公司的4.5％永久美元債券兌美元匯率下跌9.7美仙，至61.2美仙。該公司在錯過3月31日的截止日期後, 仍未公佈其全年收益。該公司表示已獲得流動資產並正在按時付款。

在新加坡的Aberdeen Standard Investments亞太區企業債務主管Paul Lukaszewski  表示：“缺乏信息令人擔憂。” “如果華融的離岸債券被推向金融重組，投資者將越來越擔心其更廣泛的影響。”

隨著習近平主席力圖抑制全球第二大經濟體的債務增長，從軟弱或經營不善的公司中撤出支持正在成為中國的一種增長趨勢。後果之一是，國有企業已取代私營企業，成為該國最大的違約來源。

惠譽國際評級（Fitch Ratings）的數據顯示，在2020年國有企業把創紀錄的795億元人民幣（121億美元）的地方債券回歸到承諾，將其在岸支付失敗的比例從上年的8.5％提高至57％。該數字在2021年第一季度躍升至72％。

當局的困境是, 在投資者對風險進行重新定價, 並出售先前因隱性國家擔保而被視為不受違約影響的債券時，避免將傳染性地蔓延至金融體系。

在十一月, 曾有一國有煤炭生產商發生在岸違約事件, 引發了該國信貸市場的短暫拋售。更多的違約行為，包括芯片製造商清華紫光集團(Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co.)的違約行為，也造成了短期的市場波動。

但是，無力解決不斷上升的債務水平, 可能致命地破壞政府為建立世界一流經濟體係以與美國相抗衡的努力。

地方政府債務尤其令人擔憂。上個月在中國的年度立法會議上，地方上的隱性債務被提升為“國家安全”問題。據與政府相關的智囊團稱，去年地方政府的隱性債務為14.8萬億元人民幣（2.3萬億美元），今年這一數字可能會進一步攀升。

像中國的許多債務問題一樣，地方政府融資工具 (LGFV) 的問題可以追溯到2009年，及中央政府對應全球金融危機的反應。面對禁止通過官方渠道借貸，但資金不足以支付刺激基礎設施費用情況之下，地方政府創建了資產負債表以外的融資工具。

沒有LGFV在公共債券違約，2020年的銷售額達到了創紀錄的4.4萬億元，但裂縫已經開始顯現。重慶能源投資集團有限公司(Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co.) 今年未能償還9.15億元的商業票據。

中銀國際控股有限公司執行董事Wu Qiong表示：“有序地打破對包括LGFV在內的公共發行債券的隱含擔保，只是時間問題。”

       So, China will be busy in dealing with the debts of the local governing bodies.

Note:

a. China Huarong Asset Management Co., Ltd. (中國華融資產管理公司) was established on November 1, 1999. On September 28, 2012, with the approval of the State Council, the company was restructured into a company limited by shares. On October 30, 2015, China Huarong was listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. China Huarong provides non-performing asset management, asset management, banking, securities, trust, financial leasing, investment, futures, consumer finance and other financial services. (http://www.chamc.com.cn/gyhr/gsjj/index.shtml)

春天來了(2021)

 最近，我家附近的花朵，無論是在行人路旁邊還是在鄰居的前院裡面，都在盛開，顯示了春天的來臨。 下面附有一些照片，可以作見證。

Recently the flowers near my home, whether they are on the side walk or in the front yard of my neighbor' s house are blooming. They denote the arrival of spring. Some photos are attached below for sharing.

"Dream fuel" Hydrogen - heat generation efficiency exceeds carbon (2 of 2)

Recently Nihon Keizai Shimbun Electronic Edition reported the following:

「夢の燃料」水素、炭素超える発熱効率 (2 of 2)

カーボンゼロ

2021年3月30日 11:00 [有料会員限定]

(Continue)

もっとも、燃料用としては主に宇宙ロケットにしか使われてこなかった。2002年にトヨタ自動車とホンダが水素を燃料とする燃料電池自動車（FCV）のリース販売を始めたが、そこから20年を経てもFCVは広く普及しているとは言い難い。

これにはいくつか理由がある。まず水素は常温ではかなり体積の大きいガスということだ。天然ガスの体積が標準状態で1キログラムあたり約1立方メートルなのに対し、水素は11立方メートルを超える。ガスのままだと、エネルギー効率はあまりよくない。

これに対する解決法が液体化だ。水素はマイナス253度に冷やせば液体になり、体積は800分の1に圧縮される。ただ極低温を維持し続けなければ一気に膨張し、事故につながる可能性がある。つまり水素は取り扱いが難しい。

もう1つの課題は、現在主流の水素生成方法ではCO2が出てしまう点だ。具体的には天然ガスなどの化石燃料が含む炭化水素に、水蒸気をぶつけてCO2と水素に分離する。水素は肥料として使われるアンモニアの原料になるため、世界中で地産地消されている。アンモニアの化学式はNH3で、水素に窒素（N）を反応させてつくる。つまりアンモニアをつくれる企業は水素もつくれるということだが、一方でアンモニア産業から出る副産物のCO2の量は多い。

解決の糸口も見えてきている。トヨタのFCV「ミライ」は燃料タンクにガスの水素が入っているが、充塡する場所である一部の水素ステーションでは液体の状態で備蓄できるようになっている。これは水素を極低温に保つ技術が一般化してきたことを意味する。独ダイムラーは20年9月、燃料タンクそのものに液体水素を積むコンセプトトラックを発表した。

水素生成の過程で排出するCO2を回収して地中に埋めたり、再利用したりする技術（CCUS）も研究が進む。化石燃料を原料とするが、CO2を回収してつくられた水素を「ブルー水素」と呼ぶ。国際エネルギー機関（IEA）によると、天然ガスから水素を生産する場合のコストは欧州で1キログラムあたり1.73ドル。CCUSを併用した場合は同2.32ドルだ。このコストをいかに抑えるかが今後の課題となる。

欧州、「グリーン水素」が本丸に

水に電気を流して水素と酸素をつくる理科の実験を覚えているだろうか。その規模を大型化して水素をつくる手法も、欧州を中心に広がっている。風力や太陽光など再生可能エネルギー由来の電気を使ってつくられた水素は、生成過程も含めCO2を出さないため「グリーン水素」と呼ばれる。

水素関連技術の開発をけん引する欧州では、このグリーン水素が水素社会の本丸になると考え、欧州連合（EU）域内で30年までにグリーン水素だけで年1000万トンの生産能力を導入する方針を打ち出している。再生エネのコストが高い日本では、当面ブルー水素の研究が先行しそうだ。

世界の水素需要は18年時点で約7000万トンと40年前の3倍以上に増えた。水素関連技術の開発競争は既に号砲が鳴っている。日本政府が掲げるカーボンゼロを達成するためにも、水素エネルギーの導入は必要な要素となる。

Translation

(continue)

However, hydrogen has been used mainly for space rockets as fuel. In 2002, Toyota Motor and Honda began leasing sales of hydrogen-fueled fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), but it is hard to say that FCVs have become widespread even 20 years after that.

There are several reasons for this. First of all, hydrogen is a gas with a fairly large volume at room temperature. The volume of natural gas is about 1 cubic meter per kilogram in the standard state, while hydrogen is over 11 cubic meters. If to remain as a gas, it is not very energy efficient.

The solution to this is liquefaction. Hydrogen becomes a liquid when cooled to minus 253 degrees Celsius, and with its volume compressed to 1/800. However, if the cryogenic temperature is not maintained, it will expand at once, which may lead to an accident. In other words, hydrogen is difficult to handle.

Another issue is that CO2 is emitted by the present mainstream hydrogen production method. Specifically, it is to hit hydrocarbons contained in fossil fuels such as natural gas with water vapor so as to break them into CO2 and hydrogen. Since hydrogen is a raw material for ammonia used as fertilizer, all over the world it is locally produced and consumed. The chemical formula of ammonia is NH3, which is produced by chemical reaction of hydrogen with nitrogen (N). In other words, companies that can produce ammonia also produce hydrogen; but on the other hand, the amount of CO2 as a by-product of the ammonia industry is huge.

A clue to the solution is also coming into view. Toyota's FCV "Mirai" contains hydrogen gas in its fuel tank, and that some re-filling places of hydrogen stations can store it in a liquid state. This means that the technology for keeping hydrogen at extremely low temperatures has become common.  In September 2020, German Daimler announced a concept truck that could stack liquid hydrogen in a fuel tank itself.

Research is also progressing on technology (known as CCUS) that captures CO2 emitted in the process of hydrogen generation, buries it in the ground, and reuse it. Although fossil fuel is used as a raw material, hydrogen produced by recovering CO2 is called "blue hydrogen". According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the cost of producing hydrogen from natural gas is $ 1.73 per kilogram in Europe. If you use CCUS at the same time, it's $ 2.32. How to reduce this cost will be an issue in the future.

Europe - "Green hydrogen" becomes the core

Do you remember the science experiment in which electricity is passed through water to produce hydrogen and oxygen? The method of increasing the scale to produce hydrogen is also spreading in Europe as the center. Hydrogen produced using electricity derived from renewable energy such as wind power and solar power is called "green hydrogen" because it does not emit CO2 during the production process.

Europe, which is driving the development of hydrogen-related technology, believes that this green hydrogen will become the core of a hydrogen economy. It has decided to introduce an annual production capacity of 10 million tons of green hydrogen alone within the European Union (EU) region by 2030. In Japan where the cost of renewable energy is high, for the time being research on blue hydrogen is likely to come first.

Global hydrogen demand was about 70 million tons in 2018, more than triple the number 40 years ago. The signal for competition on the development of hydrogen-related technology is already sounded. In order to achieve the carbon zero set by the Japanese government, the introduction of hydrogen energy is a must component.

              So, while hydrogen is difficult to handle and store safely, it could be a dream fuel in the coming decades globally because it is a source of green energy. The development of hydrogen-related technology has started in Europe and Japan, with the ability to produce  "green hydrogen" as the ultimate goal.

"Dream fuel" Hydrogen - heat generation efficiency exceeds carbon (1 of 2)

Recently Nihon Keizai Shimbun Electronic Edition reported the following:

「夢の燃料」水素、炭素超える発熱効率 (1 of 2)

カーボンゼロ

2021年3月30日 11:00 [有料会員限定]

燃やしても二酸化炭素（CO2）が出ず「夢の燃料」と期待される水素。燃焼した時のエネルギーが大きく、宇宙ロケットの燃料に使われるほか、発電所などでも活用の研究が進む。これまでの主役だった炭素と比較しながら、水素のイロハを学ぶ。

水素（H）は全宇宙の元素の9割以上を占め、最もありふれた物質だ。地球上にも多く存在するが、水素そのままではなく、酸素（O）と結びついた水（H2O）の状態であることがほとんど。水素に火を近づけて燃やすと大きなエネルギーと水が生まれる。

自然界では炭素（C）と結びついた炭化水素としても存在している。燃料として広く使われるメタン（CH4）も炭化水素の一種だ。炭化水素は天然ガスや石油、石炭などに多く含まれている。メタンを燃やすときは、メタンのなかの炭素と水素が同時に燃えている。

水素を語るには、まず燃料としてのライバルである炭素のことを語らなければならない。人類の歴史上、最も身近な燃料は炭素だった。炭素を含む化合物のことを有機物というが、生物の体をつくるたんぱく質や炭水化物、脂肪は全て有機物。つまり炭素を含む。

動物や植物といった生物の遺骸が地中に閉じ込められ、そこに含まれる炭素は長い時間をかけて濃縮されていく。その結果生まれるのが天然ガスや石油、石炭というのが一般的な学説だ。生物の体が地層内でおし固められたものを化石というが、化石が変化し石油などになる。だから「化石燃料」と総称される。

化石燃料は木材よりエネルギー効率が良く、18世紀から始まる産業革命を支えた。炭素は燃えるとCO2になる。大気中のCO2は地球表面から発せられる熱を吸収し、地球を温めてしまう。地球温暖化だ。環境を激変させ、生物の生存を脅かす可能性もある。

CO2の排出を抑える手法は主に2つ。1つは発生するCO2を大気中に逃がさないよう回収し、地中に埋めたり、炭酸ガスなどとして再利用したりする。もう1つはそもそもCO2が出ない燃料に変える。そこで水素にスポットライトが当たった。

水素は燃えても水しか排出しない。1キログラムあたりの発熱量は炭素が約8000キロカロリーなのに対し、水素は約3万キロカロリーと発熱効率もいい。水素が夢の燃料と呼ばれるゆえんだ。

(to be continued)

Translation

Hydrogen is expected to be a "dream fuel" because it does not emit carbon dioxide (CO2) even when burned. The energy generated when it burns is large, and it is used as fuel for space rockets; and a research on its utilization is in progress at power plants. To compare it with carbon which has been the main player so far, we need to learn the ABC of hydrogen.

Hydrogen (H) accounts for more than 90% of the elements in the entire universe and is the most common substance. There are many of them on the earth, but most of them are not hydrogen as it is, but exists as water (H2O) which is a combination with oxygen (O). When a fire is brought close to hydrogen and burns, a large amount of energy and water will be generated.

In nature, it also exists as a hydrocarbon after bonding with carbon (C). Methane (CH4), which is widely used as a fuel, is also a type of hydrocarbon. Hydrocarbons are abundant in natural gas, petroleum, coal, etc. When burning methane, carbon and hydrogen in methane are burning at the same time.

To talk about hydrogen, we must first talk about its rival carbon, as a fuel. Carbon is the most familiar fuel in human history. Compounds containing carbon are called organic substances; the proteins, carbohydrates, and fats that make up the body of living organisms are all organic substances. That is, it contains carbon.

The remains of living things such as animals and plants are trapped in the ground, and the carbon contained in them is concentrated over a long period of time. The general theory is that they result in natural gas, oil, and coal. A fossil is an organism whose body is compacted in the stratum, and when changes happen in the fossil it become petroleum. Therefore, it is collectively called "fossil fuel".

Fossil fuels are more energy efficient than wood and supported the Industrial Revolution that began in the 18th century. When carbon burns, it becomes CO2. CO2 in the atmosphere absorbs the heat generated from the surface of the earth and warms the earth. It's global warming. It can also drastically change the environment and threaten the survival of living things.

There are two key methods to reduce CO2 emissions. One is to collect the generated CO2 so that it does not escape to the atmosphere, and to bury it in the ground; then to reuse it as carbon dioxide gas etc. The other way is to change to a fuel that does not emit CO2 in the first place. There, the hydrogen is in the spotlight.

Even if hydrogen burns, it only gives out water. For carbon, the calorific value per kilogram is about 8,000 kcal while hydrogen has a good heat generation efficiency of about 30,000 kcal. That's why hydrogen is called dream fuel.

(to be continued)

Mutant virus "Spreading cannot be suppressed unless human contact is" halved ""

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

変異ウイルス「人の接触“半分減”でないと拡大抑えられず」

04月15日　22時44分

東京都内で感染力が強い変異ウイルスが広がった場合、人と人との接触を半分程度まで減らさないと感染拡大を抑えられないとする分析結果を都の専門家がまとめました。

分析結果は、１５日のモニタリング会議で、都の「専門家ボード」の座長を務める東北医科薬科大学の賀来満夫特任教授が明らかにしました。

今回の分析は、１人の感染者が何人に感染を広げるかを示す「実効再生産数」が、感染力が強いとされる「Ｎ５０１Ｙ」の変異があるウイルスの場合、従来のウイルスの１.４３倍になるとして計算しました。

１.４３倍は国立感染症研究所の報告をもとに仮定した数値です。

その結果、「Ｎ５０１Ｙ」の変異があるウイルスが広がった場合、人と人との接触を３０％減らしても、１人が１.１人に広げることになり、感染は拡大するとしています。

一方、接触を５０％減らした場合は１人が広げるのは０.７９人で、半分程度まで減らさないと感染拡大を抑えられないとしています。

さらに、７０％減らした場合は０.４７人まで減少し、感染の抑制につながるとしています。

ただ、海外の研究では「Ｎ５０１Ｙ」の変異があるウイルスの場合、「実効再生産数」が従来のウイルスの１.９倍だという報告もあります。

この場合、人との接触を５０％減らしても感染が拡大する計算になるということです。

賀来特任教授は「大阪のように新規陽性者が急増する前に、東京でも徹底して人の流れを減らしていくことがいっそう必要だ」と述べました。

Translation

Experts in Tokyo had summarized the analysis results showing that if a highly infectious mutant virus spread in Tokyo, the spread of the infection could not be suppressed unless the contact between people was reduced by about half.

The analysis result was revealed at the monitoring meeting on the 15th by Professor Mitsuo Kaku of Tohoku Medical and Pharmaceutical University who chaired the "Expert Board" in Tokyo.

In this analysis, the "Effective reproduction number" which indicated how many people one infected person would spread to another was calculated; in the case of a virus with a mutation of "N501Y" which was said to have strong infectivity, it was calculated to be at 1.43 times that of the conventional viruses.

1.43 times was the value assumed based on the report of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases.

As a result, if a virus with the "N501Y" mutation spread, even if the contact between people was reduced by 30%, one person could spread to 1.1 people, and the infection would spread out.

On the other hand, if the contact was reduced by 50%, one person would spread to 0.79 people, and so it was said that the spread of infection could not be suppressed unless human contact is reduced to about half.

Furthermore, if it was reduced by 70%, spreading would be reduced to 0.47, which could lead to the suppression of infection.

However, in overseas research, it had been reported that the "Effective reproduction number" of a virus with a mutation of "N501Y" was 1.9 times that of a conventional virus.

In this case, even if the contact between humans was reduced by 50%, the infection could still spread.

Professor Kaku said, " Tokyo need even more thorough reduction in the flow of people,  before the number of new positive cases increase rapidly as happening in Osaka."

              So,  in Osaka, the virus with the "N501Y" mutation is spreading in high speed and number not seen before. Leaders in Tokyo are under pressure to implement tougher regulations to control human flow so as to avoid this spreading in the capital area.

美元在全球儲備中所佔份額降至1995年以來最低水平

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Dollar’s Share of Global Reserves Sinks to Lowest Since 1995

Susanne Barton and Daniela Sirtori-Cortina

Bloomberg Wed., March 31, 2021, 12:05 p.m.

(Bloomberg) -- The dollar’s share of global currency reserves dropped in the fourth quarter to around 59%, the lowest in 25 years, according to International Monetary Fund data.

The slide came in a quarter when a gauge of the greenback fell the most since 2010, and amid questions about how long the dollar can maintain its status as the pre-eminent reserve currency. The Chinese renminbi is transforming into a force to be reckoned with in currency markets, with more yuan changing hands than ever before in London, the world’s leading foreign-exchange center.

“This is a slow burn theme, but we are of the view that we’re eventually headed into a ‘multiple reserve currency’ framework over time,” Bipan Rai, a strategist at CIBC, said via email.

In the fourth quarter, the euro’s share of official foreign-exchange reserves climbed to 21.2% from 20.5%, while the yuan’s rose to almost 2.3% from 2.1%. The renminbi accounted for 1.94% in the final three months of 2019.

For Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global, the drop in the dollar’s share of global reserves is temporary and was driven by its slide against most currencies in the fourth quarter. He’s focusing on data that shows dollar holdings among central banks climbed to $7 trillion, a record, noting that the percentage changes are “distorted” by short-term valuation changes.

“The 59% is a statistical noise generated by a combination of valuation and material changes” in demand for the euro in the fourth quarter, he said in an email. “The dollar’s recovery in Q1 21 will reverse the valuation adjustment and will see the dollar share of reserves increase.”

With its rebound this year, the dollar is heading for its best quarterly performance in a year, up by 2.8%. The greenback is still the most dominant currency used, with data from the Bank for International Settlements showing it’s on one side of 88% of all trades.

Translation

（彭博社）- 根據國際貨幣基金組織的數據，美元在全球貨幣儲備中的份額在第四季度下降至約59％，為25年來最低。

這是美元自2010年以來最大的季度跌幅，同時使人存有質疑美元可維持其作為傑出儲備貨幣的地位多久。中國人民幣正在轉變為一種在外匯市場上不容忽視的力量，在世界領先的外匯交易中心倫敦，人民幣買賣數量比以往任何時候都要多。

CIBC的策略師Bipan Rai通過電子郵件表示： “這是一個緩慢發展課題，但我們認為隨著時間的推移，我們最終將進入一個 “多種儲備貨幣” 的 框架。

在第四季度，在歐元官方外匯儲備中的份額從20.5％上升至21.2％，而人民幣從2.1％上升至近2.3％。在2019年的最後三個月中，人民幣佔1.94％。

對於Bannockburn Global首席市場策略師Marc Chandler而言，美元在全球儲備中的份額下降是暫時的，並且受到第四季度美元兌多數貨幣匯率下滑的推動。他關注的數據顯示，中央銀行持有的美元資產攀升至7萬億美元，創下歷史新高，並指出，由於短期估值變化，這一百分比變化已“扭曲”。

有関第四季度對歐元的需求, 他在一封電子郵件中說，“ 59％是由於估值和重大變化共同導致的統計噪聲”。 “美元在21年第1季度的複蘇將逆轉估值調整，並使美元在外匯儲備中的份額增加。”

隨著今年的反彈，美元正朝著一年來最好的季度表現邁進，增長了2.8％。美元仍然是使用最主要的貨幣，來自國際清算銀行的數據顯示，美元佔所有交易的88％。

              So, the Chinese yuan is becoming more popular. It could slowly challenge the leadership of dollar in the world trade as a leading currency.

中國的大型煉油廠窒息了其他亞洲石油加工企業

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China’s Mega-Refineries Throttling Other Asia Oil Processors

Saket Sundria and Sharon Cho

Bloomberg Tue., March 30, 2021, 10:35 p.m.

(Bloomberg) -- The rise of China’s mega-refineries was always going to make life tougher for their competitors across Asia. But the fallout from Covid-19 is hastening the impact and accelerating consolidation across the region.

A frenzy of refinery building in China is set to make the nation the world’s largest crude processor this year. At the same time, a drive to de-carbonize Asia’s biggest economy means demand for fuels like diesel and gasoline will decline, potentially leading to more exports from the new facilities.

That’s putting pressure on the traditionally more export-focused plants in South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan that are trying to cope with depressed demand due to the pandemic and the longer-term transition away from fossil fuels. Refineries in places like Australia and the Philippines that lack the size and sophistication to make them competitive are closing altogether.

 “China is indeed set to dominate new refining additions and product exports are likely to increase” and will compete quite aggressively with output from other Asian refiners, said Michal Meidan, director of the China Energy Programme at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Much will depend on how quickly Beijing liberalizes trade and prices including domestic export quotas, she said.

China’s refining capacity has nearly tripled since the turn of the millennium and the International Energy Agency forecasts it will overtake the U.S. this year. Crude processing will climb to 1 billion tons a year, or 20 million barrels per day, by 2025 from 17.5 million barrels at the end of 2020, according to China National Petroleum Corp.’s Economics & Technology Research Institute.

Sinopec started operations at its 10-million-ton a year Zhongke plant last June. That was followed in November by the first phase of private processor Zhejiang Petrochemical and Chemical Co.’s enormous Zhoushan facility near Ningbo, which has a capacity of 20 million tons that’s set to double when the final stage is finished. Another 36 million tons of capacity will be added late this year when CNPC and Shenghong Group open plants.

 Beijing currently regulates how much fuel its refiners can export, but they’ve still been able to flood Asia with product this year amid weak domestic demand due to a virus-impacted Lunar New Year travel season. Diesel shipments were around 1.9 million tons in the first quarter, including provisional data for March, or 36% higher than last year, according to energy intelligence firm Vortexa. Gasoline exports are likely to be up around 25%, it said.

Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines are the top destinations for these Chinese cargoes, followed by Hong Kong and Australia, according to Serena Huang, lead market analyst at Vortexa. Some of the gasoline and diesel cargoes that were sent to Singapore and Malaysia in February and March are likely to be re-exported to other Southeast Asian countries, she said.

 hat’s weighing on plants in those countries and also cutting into export markets for merchant refiners in South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan that are dependent on overseas demand. SK Innovation Co., Korea’s biggest refiner, was operating at only 60% to 70% of capacity in February, while the nation’s other three processors were at higher levels, according to traders who asked not to be identified as the information is private. Taiwan’s Formosa Petrochemical Corp. is running its plants at about 60%, they said.

These refineries are unlikely to increase activity significantly before profitability picks up. Complex margins in Singapore, a proxy for the region, were -45 cents a barrel on Tuesday, near the lowest in more than a decade.

Other plants around Asia are closing down permanently or being down-sized. Royal Dutch Shell Plc wound up its Philippines refinery last year and announced in late 2020 that it would slash oil-processing capacity at its Pulau Bukom complex in Singapore over the next three years. There’s been a wave of refinery closures in Australia despite Canberra’s efforts to keep them afloat. Japan’s ENEOS Holdings Inc. is also planning to reduce operations.

There will likely be at least another 200,000 barrels a day of refining capacity shut in Asia within the next 12 months, according to FGE. “Some less sophisticated, old and highly margin-sensitive refineries will be pushed into a corner,” said Sri Paravaikkarasu, Asia head of oil at the industry consultant.

Outside of China and India, Asian refinery run rates are unlikely to make a full recovery from the virus until the end of the year, she said.

 “Export-oriented refiners in South Korea and Singapore are struggling to ramp-up considerably,” Paravaikkarasu said. “The weakness in refining margins and increasing exports from China is keeping a tight lid on the recovery.”

Translation

（彭博社）- 中國大型煉油廠的興起總是使在亞洲的競爭者的生活更加艱難。但是，Covid-19的影響正在加速影響, 並促進地區的整合。

今年中國瘋狂地建設煉油廠, 將使中國成為全球最大的原油加工國。同時，亞洲最大經濟體的減碳舉措意味著對柴油和汽油等燃料的需求將下降，這有可能導致其新設施增加出口。

這給韓國，新加坡和台灣的傳統上以出口為重點的煉油廠帶來了壓力，這些工廠正試圖應對由於病毒大流行和從化石燃料轉向的長期過渡而導致的需求下降。像澳大利亞和菲律賓這樣的缺乏規模, 和老練技術以具競爭力的地方的煉油廠, 開始關閉。

牛津能源研究所中國能源計劃主任Michal Meidan表示：“中國確實將會主導新的精煉添加，產品出口可能會增加”，並將與其他亞洲煉油廠的產出進行激烈競爭。她說，這在很大程度上取決於北京放寬貿易和價格的速度，包括國內出口配額。

 自千禧年以來，中國的煉油能力幾乎翻了三倍，國際能源署（International Energy Agency）預測，其煉油能力將今於年超過美國。根據中國石油經濟技術研究院的數據，到2025年，原油加工量將從2020年底的1750萬桶增加到每年10億噸，即每天2000萬桶。

中石化去年6月在其年產1000萬噸的中科工廠開始運營。隨後，私有加工商浙江石油化工股份有限公司在寧波附近的大型舟山工廠的第一階段於11月啟動，該工廠的產能為2000萬噸，到最後階段完成時將翻一番。今年下半年，中國石油集團和盛宏集團將啓動工廠，屆時將再增加3600萬噸的產能。

北京目前正在規範其煉油廠可以出口的燃料量，但由於受病毒影響的農曆新年旅行季節，國內需求疲軟，因此今年他們仍然能夠向亞洲出口產品。根據能源情報公司Vortexa的數據，包括3月份的臨時數據在內，第一季度的柴油出貨量約為190萬噸，比去年同期增長了36％。該公司稱，汽油出口可能增長25％左右。

Vortexa首席市場分析師Serena Huang認為，新加坡，馬來西亞和菲律賓是這些中國貨的主要目的地，其次是香港和澳大利亞。她說，在二月和三月送往新加坡和馬來西亞的一些汽油和柴油貨物很可能會再出口到其他東南亞國家。

這給那些國家的煉油廠帶來了壓力，也導致韓國，新加坡和台灣的依賴海外需求的精煉廠商人減少出口市場。一些以隱私為由要求不透露身份的貿易商稱，韓國最大的煉油企業SK Innovation Co.在2月份的產能僅佔產能的60％至70％，而韓國其他三個加工企業的產能則處於較高水平。他們說，台灣的台塑石化公司的工廠運作佔約60％的產能。

這些煉油廠在獲利水平提高之前, 不太可能顯著地增加工廠運作。作為該地區的代表的新加坡，綜合利潤率週二為每桶-45美分，接近十多年來的最低水平。

亞洲各地的其他工廠正在永久性關閉或縮小規模。荷蘭皇家殼牌公司 (Royal Dutch Shell Plc) 去年關閉了其在菲律賓的煉油廠，並於2020年末宣布，將在未來三年內削減其新加坡Pulau Bukom工廠的石油加工能力。儘管堪培拉一直在努力使煉油廠保持運轉，但澳大利亞仍存在一輪煉油廠關閉的浪潮。日本的ENEOS Holdings Inc.也計劃減少運營。

據FGE稱，未來12個月內，亞洲每天還將關閉至少20萬桶的煉油能力。該行業顧問公司亞洲石油主管Sri Paravaikkarasu表示： “一些不那麼先進，破舊, 對利潤率有較高敏感度的煉油廠將陷入困境。

她說，在中國和印度以外，亞洲的煉油廠開工率不可能在年底之前完全從病毒影响中恢復過來。

Paravaikkarasu說： “韓國和新加坡的出口型煉油廠正在努力大幅提高產量” 。 “煉油利潤的疲軟和來自中國的出口增加，使經濟復甦步履維艱。”

              So, the oil production ability of China is gigantic. While oil refinery could be a sunset industry as green energy demand is growing, China is still relying on oil for benefits.