インドの新型コロナ感染者数が大幅に減少、その理由は？(2 of 2)
Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:
(Continue)
人口構成、地理、生活環境
インドの若年人口の多さも感染者数が減少した要因の一つである可能性がある。２０１１年の国勢調査によると、人口の半分は２５歳以下、６５％が３５歳以下だ。
ジャミール氏は「若い人々は大半が無症状か穏やかな病状で、検査を受けず報告数に現れない」と指摘する。
ＩＣＭＲで疫学研究のトップを務めたラマン・ガンガヘドカール氏は、地理的要因もあると指摘する。
「人口の７０％は田舎にいて、（都会より）換気にすぐれ、人々の関わる集団も小さい」「田舎の人はバスや電車で移動せず、ネットワークは小さい。都会の人に比べて感染リスクは小さい」（ガンガヘドカール氏）
最後に、政府の取り組みも要因として挙げられる。昨春から９月のピーク前までの数カ月間、インドは厳しいロックダウンを実施した。その後移動やビジネスの大半は再開したが、まだマスクの着用義務や社会的距離の確保、集会の人数制限などは存在する。
ガンガヘドカール氏は「極めて長期間のロックダウンに人々が従い、（感染の）カーブを５～６カ月ずらすことができた」と語る。
当局が治療のリソースをより多く提供したことも、重症化や死亡数を抑えるのに寄与した可能性があるとジャミール氏は指摘する。連邦政府はデリーに医師を送り込んだり、検査能力の拡充や集中治療室（ＩＣＵ）のベッド数３００床増床などの対応をした。
現状に油断しない
感染者数の減少は希望を持たせるものだが、専門家からは市民に対し現状に甘んじない方がいいとの警告が飛ぶ。
報告数が減ったのは、検査数の不足や、地元政府が症例数の報告や登録でミスをしている可能性もある。公式の死者数は過小報告ではないかとの疑いで精査も行われている。
前述のシェワデ氏は、州によっては入ってくるデータが信頼性に欠ける場合があり、「ビハール州はよくない。症例数や死者数を報告していない」と指摘する。
ビハール州の保健当局にコメントを求めたが、回答を得られていない。
また、国全体の数値が改善しても、地域によっては状況が悪化しているところもある。マハラシュトラ州は感染急増を受けて、今月１９日に公共の場でのマスク非着用に対する厳しい罰則など新たな制限を設けた。今後２週間で１日の新規感染者数が増え続ければロックダウンも視野に入れているという。
感染者数が減ることで、人々の間に危機は完全に終わったとの誤った安心感が広がることにも専門家は警戒している。
インドでは英国で初めて検出された変異株への感染が１８０例以上、他にも南アフリカやブラジルで初検出の変異株に感染した症例も出てきている。
ジャミール氏は、「ワクチン由来の保護は一部の人々しか享受しておらず、大多数には行き届いていない」と述べ、感染のピークを越えたからといって、次にありうる第２波からインドが守られているわけではないと注意を促した。
Translation
(Continue)
Population composition, geography, living environment
The large youth population of India might also be one of the
possible factors behind a decrease in the number of infected people.
According to the 2011 census, half of the population was under the age of 25,
and 65% was under 35.
Jameel pointed out that “most young people have asymptomatic or mild medical conditions, they are not tested and do not appear in reports".
Jameel added that the "hygiene hypothesis" could also be a factor. This was a hypothesis that an environment that was too clean would weaken the immune system, and people living in an environment with "more infectious diseases" such as India could increased immune function, and held the idea that even if infected with the new corona, it might prevent the case from becoming severe.
Raman Gangakhedkar, head of epidemiological research at ICMR, pointed out that there were also geographical factors.
"70% of the population is in the countryside, has better ventilation (than in the city), and people are connected in small groups too". "Rural people do not travel by bus or train, and the network is small. The infection risk compared to urban people is small "(Mr. Gangahedkar)
Finally, the government's effort was also a factor. In the months between last spring and before the peak in September, India carried out a tough lockdown. After that, most of the movement and business resumed, but there were still obligations to wear masks, ensuring social distance, and limiting the number of people in meetings.
Ganga Hedkar said, "People have followed a very long lockdown, and have been able to delay the (infectious) curve by 5-6 months,"
Jameel pointed out that the authorities' provision of more treatment resources could have helped reduce the severity and deaths. The federal government had sent doctors to Delhi, expanded its testing capabilities, and increased the number of beds in the intensive care unit (ICU) by 300.
Stay alert to the status quo
The reduction in the number of infected people was hopeful,
but experts warned that the public should not be content with the status quo.
A decrease in the number of reports could be due to a insufficient testing, or the local government making mistakes in reporting and registering the number of cases. Scrutiny had also been carried out on suspicion that the official death toll was underreported.
There was a situation that the incoming data could be unreliable in some states, Mr. Shewade mentioned above had pointed that "Bihar isn't good. It doesn't report the number of cases or the number of deaths".
The Bihar health authorities had been asked for comment, but no reply was given.
Moreover, while the figures for the whole country improved, the situation might worsen in some regions. Following the surge in infections, Maharashtra had set new restrictions on the 19th of this month, including strict penalties for not wearing masks in public. If the number of newly infected people per day continued to increase in the next two weeks, lockdown would also be considered.
Experts were also wary that the reduction in the number of infected people could give people a false sense of safety that the crisis was completely over.
In India, more than 180 cases were infections by the mutant strain that was first detected in the United Kingdom. There were other cases infected by the mutant strain first detected in South Africa and Brazil.
Jameel said, "Vaccine-derived protection is enjoyed by only a few people and is not well-developed in the majority", and cautioned that India was not protected from the possible next wave just because the peak of infection was passed.
So, heath
experts have express doubts that India is achieving herd immunity in its fight
against Covid-19. My feeling is that Israel, the UK and the US are more likely
to coming closer to that goal. Let’s wait and see.
沒有留言:
張貼留言