Recently Nihon Keizai Shimbun Electronic Edition reported
the following:
米、ドルで中国締め付け 香港巡り8つの金融制裁検討
トランプ政権 経済 中国・台湾 北米
2020/7/15 7:29 (2020/7/15 7:42更新)
【ワシントン=河浪武史】トランプ米大統領が14日署名して成立した「香港自治法」は、中国の大手銀行への金融制裁に道を開く。米銀との取引を禁じる8つの手法を列挙した。ドル調達の封じ込めという中国への強烈な「脅し」だが、実行すれば世界の金融システムに亀裂が入りかねない。
香港自治法に盛り込まれた米当局の経済制裁は2段階ある。米国務省は90日以内に、香港の自由や自治を侵害した個人や団体を特定し、ドル資産の凍結などの制裁の可否を検討する。米共和党は制裁対象として、中国共産党・最高指導部の韓正副首相（香港担当）らを視野に入れる。
2次制裁として、その個人や団体と取引がある金融機関も対象となる。香港自治法は具体的な制裁手法を挙げており(1)米銀による融資の禁止(2)外貨取引の禁止(3)貿易決済の禁止(4)米国内の資産凍結(5)米国からの投融資の制限(6)米国からの物品輸出の制限――など8項目が決まった。
取引断絶などの措置をとれるように制裁発動まで1年間の猶予を金融機関に与える。対象を中国金融機関に限っていないが、中国銀や中国工商銀、中国建設銀など巨大銀行に照準を当てる。
同法を主導した共和党のトゥーミー上院議員は「中国経済の将来はドル取引にかかっている。中国の巨大銀行がドルより（香港の）迫害者との取引を優先するならそうすればいい」と言い放つ。
基軸通貨ドルの封じ込めは、中国への強烈な脅しとなる。ブルームバーグ・インテリジェンスによると中国国有四大銀が抱えるドル資金は1兆1000億ドル（約118兆円）。中国企業の貿易決済を担うだけでなく、新興・途上国でのインフラ投資など「一帯一路」の資金の出し手だからだ。
野村総合研究所の木内登英エグゼクティブ・エコノミストは「最悪のシナリオを想定すれば、海外事業を手がける中国企業が米ドルの送金をできなくなる可能性がある。当然、中国の貿易はしぼむ」と指摘。「中国がデジタル人民元の国際化に積極的なのはそのゆえんかもしれない」と語る。
米国内には米連邦準備理事会（FRB）とウォール街がそれぞれ主体の2つのドル決済網がある。両者の1日当たりの取引額は3兆ドル超で、中国の巨大銀は決済網からはじき出されれば途端にドルの資金繰りに窮する。
中国の大手銀をドル経済圏から排除すれば「中国の銀行不安に直結し、国際的な金融システムそのものが揺らぎかねない」（米財務省幹部）。米当局は対北朝鮮制裁で中国の丹東銀行（遼寧省）をドル決済網から締め出したことがあるが、大手銀には制裁を科さなかった。中国のドル調達を締め上げる今回の制裁手段も、影響力が甚大すぎて「抜かずの宝刀」となる可能性がある。
香港では米欧金融機関などが米制裁につながる個人や法人取引の洗い出しに入った。関係者によると主にマネーロンダリング（資金洗浄）対策で収集した情報をもとに点検している。
日本のメガバンクも適用となる公算が大きい。制裁対象となる金融機関がこれから指定され、具体的な運用方法が不透明ななか「現時点で大きな影響は見込んでいない」（メガバンク担当者）との受け止めだ。
Translation
[Washington = Takeshi Kawanami] The "Hong Kong Autonomy
Law", which was signed by US President Trump on the 14th, opened the way
to financial sanctions against major Chinese banks. It listed eight methods of
prohibiting transactions with US banks. It's a powerful “threat” to China to
contain dollar funding, but in doing so could crack the global financial
system.
There were two levels of economic sanctions by US authorities included in the Hong Kong Autonomy Law. Within 90 days, the US Department of State would identify individuals and groups that had violated Hong Kong's freedom and autonomy, and consider possible sanctions which could include freezing dollar assets. The U.S. Republican Party would be including sanction targeting at Han Zhou the deputy prime minister (Hong Kong) of the Chinese Communist Party.
As a second wave sanction, financial institutions that had dealing with the individual or group would also to be covered. The Hong Kong Autonomy Law cited specific sanctions methods (1) Prohibition of financing by US banks (2) Prohibition of foreign currency transactions (3) Prohibition of trade settlement (4) Freezing of assets in the United States (5) Restrictions on investment and loans from the US (6) Restrictions on exports of goods from the United States etc., and in total 8 items had been decided.
Financial institutions would be given a one-year grace period before sanctions might be enforced so that they could take measures such as transaction cuts. The target was not limited to Chinese financial institutions, it targeted at large banks such as Bank of Chinese, the Chinese Industrial and Commercial Bank, and the Chinese Construction Bank.
Republican Senator Toomey who led the law insisted, "
The future of China's economy will depend on dollar trading, if giant banks in
China prioritizes to become persecutors (in Hong Kong) over dollars business,
then do it. "
The containment of the key currency, the dollar, was a powerful threat to China. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the four major Chinese state-owned banks had $1.1 trillion dollars (about 118 trillion yen). It was not only responsible for the trade settlement of Chinese companies, but also the "One belt, one road" fund to provide media for the infrastructure investment in emerging and developing countries.
Toei Kiuchi, the executive economist of Nomura Research Institute pointed out that, "If the worst scenario is assumed, a Chinese company operating an overseas business may not be able to remit US dollars. Naturally, China's trade will decline.” He also said " It may be the reason that China is active in the internationalization of digital yuan."
There were two US dollar settlement networks in the United States, individually led by the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) and the Wall Street. The daily transaction value of both parties was more than $3 trillion, and if China's giant banks were thrown out of the payment network, it would soon be in trouble with the funding of dollar.
If China's major banks were removed from the dollar economy, "it could be directly linked to China's banking uncertainties, and the international financial system itself could be shaken," (US Treasury executive). U.S. officials had banned China's Dandong Bank (Liaoning Province) from the dollar settlement network for sanctions against North Korea, but did not impose sanctions on major banks. The sanctioning measures that tightened China's dollar raising could also be a "unremovable treasured sword" because its influence was too great.
The impact on financial institutions in Japan, the US and Europe was also an unknown risk. The Hong Kong National Security Maintenance Act enacted by China prohibited "collusion with foreign powers", and there was also the risk of retaliation from China to try to evade US sanctions. A crack in the US and China could be a weakness in the international financial system.
In Hong Kong, US and European financial institutions had
begun to screen individual and corporate transactions leading to US sanctions.
According to a person concerned, the inspection was mainly based on the
information collected related to the money laundering measures.
It was likely that it might also be applicable to Japanese
megabanks. The financial institutions that would be subject to sanctions had
been pointed out, and while the specific operation method was unclear, (a
person in charge of the megabank) had said, "I don't expect a big impact
at this time"
So, to
digitize Chinese currency will help China to avoid the need to do business
using US dollar.
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