Trade War Is 2 Years Old But China Escapes With Flesh
Wound
Bloomberg Srinivasan Sivabalan,Bloomberg 8 hours ago
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(Bloomberg) -- It was this day in 2018 that President Donald
Trump fired the first salvo against China by raising tariffs on solar equipment
and washing machines. The series of tariff hikes that ensued have slowed growth
in the world’s two largest economies and erased $416 billion from Shanghai
shares, or almost $300 for each of China’s 1.4 billion people.
But given the scale of Chinese markets, that loss looks
modest, representing just 5% of its current $7.7 trillion capitalization. Bonds
have been even more resilient, with the average yield on yuan-denominated debt
falling by a third during this period. A weaker currency
has left exports more competitive, while sovereign default risk, measured by
credit-default swaps, has eased to a 13-year low.
As the U.S. and China move to the second phase of their
trade talks, having signed a preliminary deal last week, the signal from
China’s markets is one of strength. The nation’s technology and
consumer-discretionary stocks are rallying, driving gains in the main gauge for
emerging-market equities, as the upside from domestic demand outweighs risks on
the trade front.
Here’s a recap of how emerging-market assets, and those of
China, have behaved in the past two years:
Stocks
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell
8.5%, contributing to a reduction of $1.79 trillion in overall market
capitalization for the asset class.
However, it increased in number and size if you include MSCI
Inc.’s promotion of Saudi Arabia and Argentina to the “emerging-market”
bracket. When both those countries are considered, stock values actually
increased by $623 billion since January 2018.
Not counting China or the new members, the price of the
trade war paid by the 23 other emerging economies was $1.37 trillion in lost
equity value. That’s a shrinkage of 6.8%.
Bonds
A gauge of dollar-denominated bonds in emerging markets saw
its average yield rise as trade tensions simmered. But the increase was a mere
11 basis points to 4.72%.
Local-currency bonds performed better. The average yield on
a Bloomberg Barclays index for this group fell 87 basis points to 4.07%. One of
the biggest beneficiaries, ironically, was China, where the opening up of the
local bond market to foreign investors was the talk of the town.
As inflows poured in, the yield on yuan-denominated
securities declined to 3.14%, a narrowing of 148 basis points in average
borrowing costs.
Currencies
MSCI’s emerging-market currency index
slipped 2.6% since January 2018. In a period that would be remembered most for
a Turkish meltdown and a new crisis in Argentina, a sudden drop in the yuan in
the middle of 2018 briefly raised concerns of a currency war. The yuan then
stabilized and is down 7.2% over the two years.
The Mexican peso and Indonesian
rupiah rewarded carry traders, but overall, borrowing in the U.S. dollar and
investing in emerging-market assets was a losing proposition: a Bloomberg gauge
of carry positions in eight currencies fell 6.1%.
Currency volatility dropped, in line with global trends. A
JPMorgan Chase & Co. index of three-month implied, or future, volatility
fell to 6.1%, an almost 2 percentage-point drop from two years ago.
The MSCI currency index’s 100-day historical volatility has
fallen to the lowest level since April 2013.
Most stocks, bonds and currencies are
now better off than the depths of a sell-off in 2018. As the rebound gains
momentum, the trade war seems to have been pushed to the back of traders’
minds.
Rising earnings estimates, expanding central-bank stimulus
and the scope for fiscal support by developing nations such as India are likely
to be the key investment themes of 2020. The main risks could be resurgent
inflation, fears of a U.S. recession, the country’s presidential election in
November and a vast array of idiosyncratic events that have become a regular
feature of the emerging-market landscape.
Translation
（彭博社）-正是在2018年的這一天，唐納德·特朗普總統通過提高太陽能設備和洗衣機的關稅向中國開了第一槍。隨之而來的一系列關稅上調減慢了世界上兩個最大經濟體的增長，並從上海股票中抹去了4,160億美元，或者說對中國14億人口每個人來說將近300美元。
但考慮到中國市場的規模，這種損失看起來不大，僅佔其目前7.7萬億美元資本總額的5％。債券的彈性更大，在此期間，人民幣計價債券的平均收益率下降了三分之一。貨幣疲軟使出口更具競爭力，而以信用違約掉期去衡量的主權違約風險已降至13年低點。
隨著美中於上週簽署了初步協議’
兩國進入貿易談判的第二階段，國內的市場信號是强而有力的。國內科技股和消費類股正在反彈，推動新興市場股市指標上漲，因為國內需求的好處大過了貿易的風險。
以下是過去兩年來新興市場資產以及中國資產的表現概述：
股票
MSCI新興市場指數下跌8.5％，導致該資產類別的整體市值減少了1.79萬億美元。
但是，如果您將MSCI
Inc. 促銷的沙特阿拉伯和阿根廷納入“新興市場”類別，則數量和規模都會增加。考慮到這兩個國家，自2018年1月以來，股票價值實際上增加了6,230億美元。
不計中國或新成員，其他23個新興經濟體因為貿易戰付出的代價是股票價值損失1.37萬億美元。萎縮了6.8％。
債券
隨著貿易緊張局勢緩和，新興市場中以美元計價的債券的平均收益率有所上升。但增幅僅為11個基點，為4.72％。
本地貨幣債券幣現更好。彭博巴克萊指數在這個組別平均收益率下降了87個基點，达到4.07％。具有諷刺意味的是，最大的受益者之一是中國，其政府對外國投資者開放本地債券市場是城中熱話。
隨著大量資金的湧入，人民幣計價證券的收益率下降至3.14％，縮窄了平均借貸成本148個基點。
貨幣
自2018年1月以來，MSCI的新興市場貨幣指數下跌了2.6％。當土耳其崩潰和阿根廷發生新危機的最令人記憶深刻的時期，人民幣匯率在2018年中期突然短暫下跌引起了人們對貨幣戰的擔憂。人民幣隨後穩定下來，在過去兩年中下跌了7.2％。
墨西哥比索和印尼盾獎勵了套利交易者，但總體而言，用美元借款和投資新興市場資產是一個失敗的提議：彭博推算指標中八種貨幣的套利頭寸是下跌了6.1％。
貨幣波動性下降，符合全球趨勢。摩根大通公司（JPMorgan
Chase＆Co.）三個月的隱含或未來波動率跌至6.1％，較兩年前下降了近2個百分點。
MSCI貨幣指數的100天歷史波動率已降至2013年4月以來的最低水平。
現在，大多數股票，債券和貨幣的狀況相對於2018年的拋售深度要好。隨著反彈勢頭增強，貿易戰似乎已被交易者拋諸腦後。
收益預估上升，中央銀行刺激政策的擴大,
以及印度等發展中國家的財政支持範圍可能是2020年的主要投資主題。主要風險可能是通脹回升，擔心美國經濟衰退及該國十一月的總統大選,
以及各種各樣已成為新興市場格局常規特徵的獨特或個別事件。
So, business will be as usual for world trade
and financial markets in 2020, even though the second phase of US-China trade negotiation
is going on.
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