Japan cannot "ban the Chinese from coming”: the three issues

A few days ago Tōyō Keizai carried an article from Taiwan “This Weekly”

2月26日（水）東洋経済Taiwan "This Week"

日本が｢中国人入国禁止｣にできない3つの事情

韓国･台湾に前例､インバウンド市場を直撃

台湾『今周刊』

2020/02/26 7:40

日本の新型コロナウイルスの感染者数が100人を超え、客船「ダイヤモンド・プリンセス」での感染者を除いても、中国・韓国に次ぐ数の感染者が確認されている。そして、いま懸念されているのは日本国内でウイルスが蔓延し、すでに感染拡大が起こっているのではないかということだ。

日本における新型コロナウイルスの感染状況が、新たな段階に入ったことは明らかだ。ただ理解しがたいのは、2月23日現在、日本がいまだに中国からの全面的な入国禁止措置をとっていないことである。

台湾では2月上旬から、中国大陸在住の中国人の入国を全面的に禁止している。日本の対策はなぜ台湾と異なるのか。

新型肺炎対策を鈍らせる3つの要因

それには3つの要因が考えられる。1つは、中国からの観光客が日本のインバウンド市場において最大の消費者だということだ。2020年4月には習近平国家主席の来日が予定され、7月には東京オリンピックを控えている。この3つこそが安倍政権の「決断」を鈍らせる原因であり、日本の新型肺炎対策の詰めの甘さを招いているのではないだろうか。

日本政府観光局（JNTO）によると、中国からの訪日観光客数は2015年に韓国と台湾を抜いて1位に躍り出た。その後、中国人観光客数は増加の一途をたどり、2019年には延べ959万人が日本を訪れたという。これは訪日外国人観光客の30％を占めており、2位の韓国18％、3位の台湾15％を大きく引き離している。

中国からの訪日客は、数の多さだけでなく、消費力もすさまじい。中国人観光客の日本における旅行消費額は2018年に1.5兆円にのぼった。これは全体の34％を占める数字だ。言い方を変えると、2014年に安倍首相が打ち出した「観光立国政策」に、中国が大きな貢献をしたということだ。そんな上客を軽くあしらうことなどできるだろうか。

もし中国人を入国禁止にしたならば、日本の観光産業が受ける影響は計り知れない。これが中国人の全面的な入国禁止措置に踏み切れない大きな要因だと考えられる。

また、4月に習近平国家主席の国賓としての来日が予定されている。2月末には最終調整のため、中国の外交担当トップである中国共産党中央政治局委員の楊潔篪（よう・けつち）氏も来日することになっている。安倍政権が中国人を入国禁止にしないのは、習主席の訪日前に両国の友好ムードに水を差したくないからではないか。これは日本のメディアからも指摘されている。

そして、7月に開幕する東京オリンピックである。東京オリンピックも安倍政権が推し進める観光立国政策の重要な柱だ。日本政府は、中国人の入国禁止がオリンピックを含めた今後のインバウンド需要にどう影響するかを試算したはずだ。なお、オリンピックの延期や中止の検討については、2月13日に大会組織委員会の森喜朗会長が「政府と連携し、冷静に対応する」と述べるにとどまった。

中国人依存度の高さが忖度を招く

日本はなぜこうも、中国や中国人観光客に忖度するのか。シンガポール国立大学東南アジア研究所のルパック・ボラ客員研究員は、香港の『サウスチャイナ・モーニング・ポスト』上で、日本のインバウンド市場が抱えるリスクについて警告している。それは中国人観光客への依存度の高さだ。

中国からの訪日客は日本に大きな利益をもたらしているが、同時に両刃の剣になりうる。日中両国の政治的な友好ムードが崩れたら、中国人観光客は中国政府にとって日本に経済的ダメージを与えるための武器となるだろう。

ボラ氏の警告には根拠となる前例がある。アメリカが2017年、在韓米軍に地上配備型ミサイル迎撃システム「THAAD」（サード）を配備したときのことだ。韓国にとってTHAAD配備は、北朝鮮の弾道ミサイルへの対抗策となるはずだったが、意に反して中国からの激しい反発を招いてしまった。韓国へのTHAAD配備を受け、中国政府は中国人の韓国への渡航を規制した。この措置は韓国の訪韓観光市場に大打撃を与え、事実上の経済制裁となった。

台湾総統選の半年前である2019年7月には、中国政府は大陸から台湾への個人旅行を禁じ、台湾の旅行業界にも大きな損失を与えた。この中国への過度な依存が、日本が中国に忖度するに至った根源ではないだろうか。

新型コロナウイルス対策における日本と台湾の初動を比較すると、大きな違いがあることがわかる。台湾の厚生労働省に相当する衛生福利部は、1月25日に中国大陸からの入国と入国許可申請の受け付け停止を決めた。

一方、日本は2月1日になってようやく中国からの入国を条件付きで制限し始めた。しかも、入国禁止となるのは過去2週間以内に湖北省への滞在歴があるか、湖北省発行のパスポートを所持している外国人のみだ。その後、浙江省への滞在歴がある外国人も入国禁止措置の対象となった。2月23日現在、全面禁止措置はとられていない。

そのような中、日本国内では感染経路が不明な感染者の報告例が相次いでいる。このような状況を見て、訪日外国人第3位の台湾では2月14日に「日本では市中感染がすでに発生している可能性がある」として渡航警戒レベル3段階のうち最も低い「1（注意）」を発布。さらに22日に警戒レベルを「2（警戒）」に引き上げ、現地では日本への渡航を自粛するムードが漂っている。

台湾からの訪日客も減少すれば、日本のインバウンド市場にはさらなる影響が出る可能性があるだろう。（台湾「今周刊」2020年2月15日）

Translation

Excluding those infected on the cruise ship Diamond Princess, the number of people infected with the new coronavirus in Japan had exceeded 100, and the number of people infected in China and South Korea had been continuously confirmed. And what was now a concern in Japan was that, as there was a virus spreading, had a wide area spreading of infection been occurred already.

It was clear that the new coronavirus infection situation in Japan had entered a new stage. What was hard to understand, however, was that as of February 23, Japan had not yet implemented a full ban on China.

From early February, Taiwan had banned Chinese residents in the mainland from entering the country. Why were Japan's measures different from Taiwan?

Three factors slowed down new pneumonia measures

There were three possible factors. First, Chinese tourists were the largest consumers in Japan's inbound market. Xi Jinping’s visit to Japan in April 2020 was scheduled, to Tokyo Olympic in July was declined. These three factors slowed down the Abe administration's "decision," and might be the reason for Japan's poor handling towards the new types of pneumonia.

According to the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO), the number of inbound tourists from China jumped to the first place in 2015, overtaking Korea and Taiwan. Since then, the number of Chinese tourists continued to increase, with a total of 9.59 million visiting Japan in 2019. This accounted for 30% of foreign tourists visiting Japan, in far behind was Korea's 18% in the second place and Taiwan's 15% at the third place.

Visitors from China was not only in large numbers, but also had tremendous consumption power. Regarding Chinese tourists spending on travel in Japan, it went up to 1.5 trillion yen in 2018. This was 34% of the total. In other words, China had made a significant contribution to the “Tourism nation policy” launched by Prime Minister Abe in 2014. Could you treat such a good customer lightly?

If China were banned, the impact on the Japanese tourism industry would be immense. This was considered to be a major factor behind why a ban on Chinese people could not be embarked.

In addition, as a state guest, Chairman Xi Jinping’s visit Japan in April was scheduled. At the end of February, China's chief of foreign affairs, Chinese Communist Party Central Political Affairs Commissioner Yang Jiechi would come to Japan for a final adjustment. The Abe administration did not ban Chinese people from entering Japan probably because they did not want to disturb the friendly mood between the two countries before Xi’s visit. This had been pointed out by Japanese media.

Then, the Tokyo Olympics would begin in July. The Tokyo Olympics was also an important pillar of the Abe administration's nationwide tourism policy. The Japanese government should have estimated how the ban on Chinese people could affect the future inbound demand, including the Olympics. In addition, regarding the postponement or cancellation of the Olympics, Yoshiro Mori, chairman of the Games Organizing Committee, stated on February 13 that "we will cooperate with the government and respond calmly."

High dependence on Chinese people led to hesitation

Why was Japan in such a way being ambiguous about China and the Chinese tourists? In the South China Morning Post in Hong Kong, visiting Fellow Rupak Bora of the Southeast Asian Institute at the National University of Singapore warned of the risks posed on Japan related to the inbound market. Japan’s dependence on Chinese tourists was high.

Visitors from China had brought great benefits to Japan, but it could also be a double-edged sword. If the political friendship mood between Japan and China collapsed, Chinese tourists could be a weapon for the Chinese government to cause economic damage to Japan.

Bora's warning had a precedent for evidence. It was when the United States deployed the ground-based missile interception system "THAAD" to the U.S. forces in Korea in 2017. For South Korea, the deployment of THAAD was supposed to be a countermeasure against North Korea's ballistic missiles, but unfortunately it caused a sharp rebound from China. Following the deployment of THAAD in South Korea, the Chinese government restricted Chinese travel to South Korea. This measure had a devastating effect on the Korean tourist market, and resulted in de facto economic sanctions.

In July 2019, six months before the Taiwan presidential election, the Chinese government banned individual travel from the continent to Taiwan, causing significant losses to the Taiwanese travel industry. Was not this over-reliance on China the root in causing Japan's conjecture with China?

Comparing the initial actions taken on the new coronavirus in Japan and Taiwan, it was clear that there were significant differences. Taiwan’s Ministry of Health and Welfare, an equivalent to Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, on January 25 decided to suspend entry from mainland China, and also applications for entry permit.

Meanwhile, Japan finally began conditionally restricting entry from China on February 1. And only foreigners who had stayed in Hubei within the past two weeks or had a passport issued by Hubei would be banned. Later, foreigners who had stayed in Zhejiang Province were also banned. Now as of February 23, no full-scale ban had been imposed yet.

Under such circumstances, in Japan there were a number of reports of infected people with unknown transmission routes. In light of this situation, Taiwan, the third largest foreigner visiting Japan, on February 14 supposed that as " in Japan community infection may already have occurred," issued "level 1 (attention)", the lowest among the three levels of travel alerts. The level of alert was raised to 2 (alert) on the 22nd, and locally a mood of refraining from traveling to Japan was hanging in the air.

If the number of visitors from Taiwan decreased, Japan's inbound market could be further affected. (Taiwan "This Weekly" February 15, 2020)

         So, Japan is heavily depending on the mainland Chinese visitors in its tourism.

New type of pneumonia – announcement on consultation and medical examination guideline

Recently NHK News On-line reported the following:

新型肺炎 相談や受診の目安公表

02月17日　15時30分

新型コロナウイルスによる感染症について、厚生労働省はどのような症状の時に相談や受診すべきか、その目安をとりまとめ、１７日公表しました。

それによりますと、まず一般の人はかぜの症状や３７度５分以上の発熱が４日以上続く人、強いだるさや息苦しさがある人は、全国の都道府県にある「帰国者・接触者相談センター」に相談するよう呼びかけています。

かぜの症状や発熱については、解熱剤を飲み続けなければならない人も対象になるとしています。

高齢者や糖尿病・心不全・呼吸器疾患の持病がある人や透析を受けている人、免疫抑制剤や抗がん剤などの投与を受けている人は、感染すると重症化しやすいため、こうした状態が２日程度続く場合は相談するよう呼びかけています。

また妊婦も念のため、重症化しやすい人と同様に早めに相談するよう呼びかけています。

子どもについては、現時点で重症化しやすいという報告は無く、一般の人の目安通りに対応してほしいとしています。

また、相談や受診の前に、心がけてほしいこととして、発熱などのかぜの症状がみられる場合は学校や会社を休み、外出を控えること。

そして毎日、体温を測定して記録しておくことを呼びかけています。

さらに、相談後医療機関を受診する際には、相談センターから勧められたところを受診し、複数の医療機関を受診することは控えるよう呼びかけています。

厚生労働省が示した新型コロナウイルス感染症の相談・受診の目安によりますと、まず相談・受診の前に心がけてほしいこととして、発熱などのかぜ症状が見られるときは学校や会社を休み外出を控え、毎日、体温を測定して記録するよう呼びかけています。

そして帰国者・接触者相談センターに相談する目安として、かぜの症状や３７度５分以上の発熱が４日以上続いている人や、解熱剤を飲み続けなければならない人、強いだるさや息苦しさがある人としています。

さらに高齢者や糖尿病、心不全、呼吸器疾患の基礎疾患がある人や透析を受けている人、免疫抑制剤や抗がん剤を使用している人については重症化しやすいため、目安として示した症状が２日程度、続く場合帰国者・接触者相談センターに相談するよう呼びかけています。

また妊婦については念のため重症化しやすい人と同様に早めに相談するよう呼びかける一方、子どもについては現時点で重症化しやすいという報告はないとして、目安どおりの対応をするよう呼びかけています。

厚生労働省は、「現時点では新型コロナウイルス感染症以外の病気の方が圧倒的に多い状況であり、インフルエンザなどの心配があるときには通常と同様にかかりつけ医などに相談してほしい」としています。

そのうえで相談後、医療機関にかかるときのお願いとして、帰国者・接触者相談センターから受診を勧められた医療機関を受診し、複数の医療機関を受診するのは控えること、医療機関を受診する際にはマスクを着用するほか手洗いやせきエチケットを徹底するよう呼びかけています。

Translation

Regarding the infectious diseases caused by the new coronavirus, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare had compiled a guideline on at what moment one should make consultation and be examined, and announced this on the 17th.

According to it, first of all, for people who had cold symptoms or fever of 37.5 degrees and over for more than 4 days, and had strong drowsiness or breathlessness, should consult the "Returnees/ Contacted Person Consultation Center " in prefectures nationwide.

Regarding cold symptoms and fever, those who needed to continuously to take antipyretics were also targeted.

Elderly people, people with diabetes, heart failure, respiratory disease; people on dialysis and people who received immunosuppressants or anticancer drugs were easier to become serious ill when infected. In a situation if illness continued to last for two days, to seek consultation was suggested.

Also, as a precautionary note, pregnant women were encouraged to seek consultation early, same as those who were easier to become seriously ill.

At this time, there were no reports that children were more likely to become seriously ill, their cases should be handled according to the general public's guidelines.

Also, before consultation or examination, as a thing to keep in mind, if one had any symptoms such as fever, please took a break from school or work and refrained from going out.

And every day, to measure and record body temperature were called for.

In addition, when seeking examination at a medical institution after consultation, it was recommend that one should consult a doctor at the location recommended by the consultation center, and to refrain from consulting multiple medical institutions.

According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare's guidelines for consultation and medical examination for the new type coronavirus infection, first of all, it wanted people to keep in mind that when one had cold symptoms such as fever, before consultation and medical examination, to stay away from school and work, and to take measurement of body temperature and record it every day.

As regarding the guideline for the Returnees / Contacted Person Consulting Center, it was for people with cold symptoms and had fever of over 37.5 ° C for more than 4 days, and those people who had to continue to take antipyretic drugs; and those who had strong drowsiness and breathlessness.

In addition, because elderly people, people with diabetes, heart failure, basic respiratory disease; and people on dialysis, people using immunosuppressive drugs and anticancer drugs were more likely to become more sick, so if the symptom as shown in the guide had persisted for about 2 days in a continuing situation, they were advised to arrange consultation with the Returnee / Contacted Person Center.

Also, while as a precautionary measure, the Ministry called on pregnant women, same as those who were more susceptible to serious sickness, to make consultation as soon as possible. At the current time there were no reports that illness was likely to be more severe for children, the suggestion was that they should respond as already indicated.

The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare supposed that, "at present, there are overwhelmingly many diseases other than the new coronavirus infection, and if you are worried about influenza, we would like you to consult your GP as usual."

After consultation, if one was requested to visit a medical institution, one should visit the one that was recommended by the Returnee / Contact Person Consultation Center and refrain from visiting more than one medical institution. When visiting a medical institution, one was encouraged to wear a mask, and on top of that to thoroughly perform hand-washing and cough etiquette.

              So, Japan is taking serious measures nationwide to deal with the infectious diseases caused by the new coronavirus named by WHO as COVID-19.

In 10 advanced patent fields Chinese was leading in 9 fields including AI - reversing Japan and the United States

Recently Nikkei newspaper electronic version reported the following:

先端特許10分野、AIなど中国9分野で首位　日米を逆転

ネット・IT 中国・台湾 北米

2020/2/12 2:00日本経済新聞　電子版

10年後の技術覇権を競う米中、置き去りにされる日本――。人工知能（AI）や量子コンピューターなど先端技術の特許出願を分析したところ、中国が10分野中9分野で首位に立った。百度（バイドゥ）やアリババ集団などネット大手の台頭が目立つ。一方、特許の質では上位100位中、64を米企業が占めた。次世代の競争力を占う先端技術開発で米中が激しく競う一方、日本は水をあけられている。

知的財産データベースを運営するアスタミューゼ（東京・千代田）が特許データを集計し日本経済新聞と共同で分析した。10分野の特許出願は2000～19年の累計で約34万件に達した。

出願人を国別で見ると、中国が約13万件と全体の4割を占め、日米（いずれも約2割）を上回った。

通年データがそろう直近の17年単年では中国の出願数が9分野で最多だった。ドローンなどに加え近年はAIや再生医療でも急伸する。米国は量子コンピューターのみ中国を上回った。05年に自動運転など4分野で首位だった日本は全分野で2位以下だった。

10分野はいずれも幅広い産業領域に応用が期待される基幹技術だ。AIで先行できれば自動運転や再生医療でも優位に立つなど相乗効果は大きく、10分野での技術覇権は国の競争力そのものを左右する可能性がある。

■「BATH」台頭

中国は15年、第13次5カ年計画で「知財強国」を目指す方針を示すと同時に、「中国製造2025」でハイテク産業を強化。研究開発費は17年に日本の3倍の50兆8千億円に達し、首位米国（55兆6千億円）に迫る。

けん引するのが「BATH」とも呼ばれる百度、アリババ、騰訊控股（テンセント）、華為技術（ファーウェイ）の4社だ。百度は4分野で出願数がトップ10入りするなど、4社の10分野の出願数は15年以降で約6千件に達した。

他社に特許をおさえられると、特許使用料の支払いなど事業展開の障害になるリスクが高まる。技術的に同レベルの特許を持たないと「クロスライセンス」（特許の相互利用）が実現せず、モノやサービスの開発が難しくなる恐れもある。

一方、特許は「質」も重要だ。影響力や将来性など独自指標に基づいて特許の質を分析し、10分野それぞれについて上位10社をランキングした。全100社（研究機関など含む）のうち米国勢が64社を占めた。日本勢が18社と続き、中国勢は1社だった。

■米は警戒強める

中国は質での劣勢を補うため、19年1月に知財を専門に扱う法廷を最高裁に設置するなど知財戦略を強化している。日本は特許出願で05年まで30年超にわたり世界首位だったが、実用化や規格争いで後手に回り多くの産業分野で競争力を失った。今後、中国は保有特許を生かし商用化やサービス開発で先行できるかがカギを握る。

トランプ米政権は中国への警戒を強める。昨年にはファーウェイへの制裁に踏み切った。中国発の技術が世界に浸透する前に頭を押さえる狙いもあるとみられ、先端技術を巡る米中のつばぜり合いは激しさを増す。

Translation

US and China were competing for hegemony in technology of the future ten years – with Japan being left behind. Analysis of patent applications for advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computers had shown that China was in the lead in nine out of ten fields. The rise of Internet major players such as Baidu and Alibaba was prominent. On the other hand, US companies accounted for 64 out of the top 100 in patent quality. While the United States and China were fiercely competing for the development of advanced technologies that might foretell the competitiveness in the next generation, Japan was behind them.

Astamuse (Tokyo, Chiyoda), an intellectual property database operator, compiled the patent data and analyzed them jointly with Nikkei. The cumulative number of patent applications in 10 fields had reached about 340,000 in 2000-19.

Looking at applicants by country, China accounted for about 130,000 applications, representing 40% of the total, exceeding the US and Japan (both about 20%).

In 2017, the most recent single year with year-round data available, China had the highest number of applications in nine fields. In recent years, in addition to drones, AI and regenerative medicine had grown rapidly. In the United States, only quantum computers surpassed China. Japan, which ranked first in four fields such as autonomous driving in 2005, ranked second or lower in all fields.

All ten fields were core technologies that were expected to be applicable to a wide range of industrial fields. If AI was in the lead, there would be a great synergistic effect, such as having an advantage in autonomous driving and regenerative medicine, and technological hegemony in 10 fields might affect the national competitiveness itself.

■ The rise of "BATH"

In 2015 the 13th Five-Year Plan announced that China's policy was to become an "intellectual property power country”, and at the same time to strengthen the high-tech industry with "China Manufacturing 2025." R & D expenditures tripled to ¥ 50,800 billion in 2017 which was 3 times that of Japan, and was approaching the top US (55,660 billion yen).

Leading companies were Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and Huawei, also known as "BATH". Baidu had the top 10 applications in four fields, and the number of applications of these 4 companies in ten fields had reached about 6,000 since 2015.

If patents were held by other companies, paying royalties for using them etc. could increase the risk of obstructing business development. If you did not have the same level of patents in technology, "cross licensing" (mutual use of patents) could not be realized, which might make it difficult to develop goods and services.

On the other hand, "quality" was important for patents. We analyzed the quality of patents based on unique indicators such as the power to influence and its future potential, and ranked the top 10 companies in each of the 10 fields. Out of a total of 100 companies (including research institutes, etc.), the United States accounted for 64 companies. Japan followed it with 18 companies, and China had 1 company.

■ The US strengthens vigilance

China had stepped up its intellectual property strategy to make up for its inferiority by setting up a supreme court etc. in January 2019 in the court of justice which specifically handled intellectual property. Japan had been the world leader in patent applications for more than 30 years until 2005, but was unable to compete in many industrial fields due to delays in competition for practical application and standards. In the future, China held the key in whether it could take advantage of its patents to advance commercialization and service development.

The Trump administration was increasingly vigilant against China. Last year, the government sanctioned Huawei. It was thought that there was also an aim to suppress the technology from China before it penetrated the world; and the confrontation between the United States and China over advanced technology might increase.

            So, the United States and China are fiercely competing for the development of advanced technologies of the next generation. It is a pity to see that Japan is falling behind in the development of its high-tech industry.

Japanese passport has a new design - to decorate the visa pages with Ukiyo-e

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

日本のパスポートが新デザインに、査証ページに浮世絵あしらう

2020.02.07 Fri posted at 18:00 JST

東京（ＣＮＮ） 日本のパスポートのデザインが新しくなり、浮世絵師の葛飾北斎の代表作である「富嶽三十六景」の作品が査証ページにあしらわれるようになった。デザインが新しくなったパスポートは今月４日の申請受け付け分から交付される。

浮世絵は、芝居の告知や風景、力士などさまざまな題材を扱っている。新しくなったパスポートには「神奈川沖浪裏（かながわおきなみうら）」などの図柄が採用された。

デザインが新しくなったのは査証ページだけで表紙は従来のまま。

１０年用のパスポートは表紙を除いて５４ページ。富嶽三十六景の中から２４作品が使われている。５年用のパスポートの場合、３２ページに１６作品が描かれている。

外務省は４年前にパスポートのデザインを新しくすることを決めていた。複雑なデザインを採用することで偽造防止を強化するほか、日本の文化を世界に紹介することにつながるとしている。日本では今夏、東京五輪・パラリンピックが開催される。

Translation

Tokyo (CNN) The design of the Japanese passport had been renewed, and the work of Ukiyo-e artist Katsushika Hokusai's masterpiece "Thirty-six Views of Fuji" had been added to the visa pages. Passports with a new design would be issued starting from those applications received after 4th of this month.

  

Ukiyo-e covered a variety of subjects, such as play announcements, landscapes, and wrestlers. The new passport used the design such as "Kanagawa Okina Miura".

The new design was only on the visa pages and the cover would be same as before.

The passport for 10 years had 54 pages excluding the cover. From the thirty-six views of Fuji, 24 works were used. In the case of a 5-year passport, 16 works were drawn on its 32 pages.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs had decided to redesign the passport four years ago. Counterfeiting prevention would be strengthened by adopting complex designs, and it might also introduce Japanese culture to the world. The Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics would be held this summer in Japan.

           So, the Japanese will have passports with new design starting from February this year.

蘇格蘭小冰河世紀氣候變化的教訓

Yahoo Finance On-line carried the following opinion article on 3.2.2020:

A Climate Change Lesson from Scotland's Little Ice Age

Bloomberg Tatiana Schlossberg,Bloomberg 16 hours ago

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(Bloomberg Opinion) -- We’ve heard a lot over the last few years about what Brexit might mean for the future of Britain and the United Kingdom. Rather than prognosticate (enough people have already made enough bad predictions) let’s instead look at what history teaches us about such a divorce might mean in a time of climate crisis.

The place: Scotland. The time: 1695. Already, much of the Northern Hemisphere was shivering its way through the so-called Little Ice Age, which lasted from about 1450 to 1850. The decade from 1695-1705 was the coldest of all, though, according to a recent study in the Journal of Vulcanology and Geothermal Research. In fact, it’s still Scotland’s coldest decade in the last nearly 800 years. The century 1612-1711 is the coldest hundred-year period on record (1911-2010 is the warmest). Looking at rings from centuries-old trees in the Cairngorms in northern Scotland, the researchers and determined that this particular cold spell was caused by a few significant volcanic eruptions in the tropics and Iceland from 1693-1695, and possibly a shift in the North Atlantic/Arctic Oscillation, the atmospheric pressure pattern that affects the climate of the northern hemisphere.

The study’s authors lay out some of the consequences: Population loss in Scotland of around 10-15% (25% in some places) because of crop failure and ill-advised export laws, and over-enthusiasm about Darien, a proposed colony in Panama, which was a spectacular failure. It lasted less than two years and resulted in the deaths of about 2,000 colonists and the loss of about a third of Scotland’s wealth.

The effect of all of this — population loss, economic and agricultural collapse — was that Scotland united with England in 1707 after centuries of resistance, the authors write. And while no decades were as bad, climate-wise, as the 1690s, once unified with England, Scotland never saw the same kind of desperation again.

“By joining England, Scotland became more resilient,” said Rosanne D’Arrigo, the lead author and a tree-ring scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University. “The bigger message for today is arguably that as the climate changes, nations will be stronger if they stick together and not try to go it alone.”

There’s an obvious parallel to Brexit: going it alone in difficult climatic times can result in disaster, particularly for smaller countries with fewer resources, which is relevant for both the United Kingdom’s relationship with the E.U., and for how its members relate to each other.

But it has relevance beyond the U.K. and Europe, since the climate is changing not only on a regional or hemispheric scale, but a planetary one. Though effects may be worse in some places and for some people than others — namely for poor black, brown and indigenous women in the Global South — there are no parts of the world that the climate crisis will leave untouched. There isn’t really a way to go it alone — emissions anywhere have consequences everywhere.

The work these scientists have done suggests that we consider ourselves and our economies separate from nature at our own peril. And we err when we don’t understand the history of climate change, pollution, and resource exhaustion.

The need to take from nature and the belief that more can always be taken are part of what drove settlers to the “New World,” and once in North America, pushed them to expand across the continent. The American sense that natural resources have no limits —  there has always been more — has allowed us to think of nature and its limits as an abstract idea rather than a physical reality, as much as our economic and geographic growth has physically depended on our resources.

We have our own cautionary tales too: the near-extinction of the buffalo and wild Atlantic salmon in U.S. waters, and the actual extinction of the passenger pigeon and the eastern elk. We can’t (or shouldn’t) understand the Ludlow Massacre of 1914 without considering the environmental costs and transformations that came with coal mining.

Taking this long view helps us understand that while climate change may be an especially intense and relatively recent problem, we’ve been dealing with versions of it for centuries. We take the stability of our natural world for granted, but it is always changing, both on its own and in response to how we scramble time — burning ancient fuels to melt ancient ice to alter our future.

We’re already seeing the imprint of the climate crisis on events that may otherwise seem unrelated to it: Mass migration to Europe following the Arab Spring and the Syrian Civil War can be attributed in part to climate change. The arrival of immigrants in Europe has often been met with hostility, and has triggered political changes — influencing the rise of right-wing populism on the continent as well as in the British Isles. 

We may be able to change the climate, but we should remember that the climate changes us, too.

Translation

彭博（Bloomberg Opinion）- 在過去幾年中，我們聽到了很多信息關於英國退歐對英國和聯合王國未來的意義。與其預言（足夠多的人已經做出了錯誤的預測），不如讓我們看看歷史告訴我們關於這種脱離在氣候危機時期可能意味著什麼。

地點：蘇格蘭。時間：1695年。北半球的大部分地區已經在所謂的“小冰河時代”（約從5050年到1850年）中顫抖。而根據Vulcanology and Geothermal Research雜誌上的最新研究，從1695年到1705年的十年是最冷的。。實際上，它仍然是蘇格蘭近800年來最寒冷的十年。 1612年至1711年是有記錄以來最冷的一百年時期（1911-2010年是最溫暖的時期）。在查看了蘇格蘭北部凱恩戈姆州百年古樹上的年輪後，研究人員確定這一特殊的寒冷季節是由於熱帶地區和冰島從1693-1695年發生的幾次重大火山噴發，以及可能發生了北大西洋/北極濤動的變化，影響北半球氣候的氣壓模式。

該研究的作者指出了一些效應：蘇格蘭的人口損失約為10-15％（某些地方為25％）; 由於作物歉收和不明智的出口法律, 以及過度熱忱在巴拿馬提議建立的殖民地達里恩（Darien），造成一次规模大和後果明显的失敗。歷時不到兩年，導致約2,000名殖民者喪生，並損失了蘇格蘭約三分之一的財富。

這作者寫道，所有這些的後果 -人口損失，經濟和農業崩潰, 導致蘇格蘭在數個世紀的抵抗後於1707年與英國聯合。在氣候方面，再沒有比1690年代哪十年糟糕 。與英國統一後，蘇格蘭再也沒有看到過同樣的絕望。

哥倫比亞大學的Lamont-Doherty地球觀測站的樹木年輪科學家及主要寫作者Rosanne D’Arrigo說：“加入英格蘭後，蘇格蘭變得更具彈性。” “今天更大的信息可以說是隨著氣候變化，如果各國團結在一起而不是獨自一人努力，它們將會變得更強大。”

這歷史與英國脫歐有一個明顯的相似之處：在氣候困難的時候獨自一人可能導致災難，特別是對於資源較少的小國家而言。這相似與英國和歐盟的關係息息相關, 而其成員之間的相互關係亦如是。

這亦與英國和歐洲以外地方息息相關，因為氣候不僅在區域或半個地球範圍內變化，而是在全地球上。儘管在某些地方和某些人身上的影響可能比其他地方更糟 -- 即是對南半球的貧窮黑人，棕色人和土著婦女 -- 世界上沒有任何地方不會遭受氣候危機的影響。在事實上真的沒法單獨解決 – 任何地方的排放物都会在另一處產生後果。

這些科學家所做的工作表明，我們犯險地認為人類和他們的經濟與大自然互不干涉。如果我們不了解氣候變化的歷史，與及污染和資源枯竭，就是犯下誤錯。

人們由大自然獲得所需, 以及在信念認為隨時可以搜括更多是驅使移居者進入“新世界”的原因，而移居者一旦進入北美，這信念促使他們在整個美洲大陸擴張。美國人認為自然資源是無盡的，而且一直都会有更多，這使我們將大自然及其極限視為僅是一種抽象概念，而不是一種大自然的現實，就像我們的經濟和地域增長實際取決於我們的資源。

我們也有自己的警示性故事：在美國水域，水牛和野生大西洋鮭魚近乎滅絕，而長尾北美鴿子和東麋鹿實際上滅絕了。我們不能（或不会）理解1914年的拉德洛大屠殺, 如果不去思考煤炭開採帶來的環境成本和改變。

從長遠的角度來看，這有助於我們理解到儘管氣候變化可能是一個特別激烈且相對較新的問題，但數百年來我們一直已在應對它。我們認為自然世界的穩定是理所當然的，但它本身, 和對我們倒乱時間所作出的反應, 都是在不斷變化 -- 燃燒古老的燃料引起古老的冰融化正在改變我們的未來。

在似乎與事件無關的事件上我們已經看到氣候危機烙印：在“阿拉伯之春”和“敘利亞內戰”之後向歐洲的大規模遷移可以部分歸因於氣候變化。 歐洲移民的來臨常常引起敵對情緒，並引發了政治變化，影響了歐洲大陸以及不列顛群島右翼民粹主義的興起。

我們也許可以改變氣候，但是我們應該記住，氣候也改變了我們。

           So, according Tatiana Schlossberg, Brexit may create uncertainty for the Britain people due to climate changes. As crime crisis is a global issue, he believes that going alone in difficult climatic times could result in disasters, particularly for smaller countries with fewer resources. The rise of right-wing populism on the continent as well as in the British Isles could be seen as an indirect result of crime changes.