Recently Nihon Keizai Shimbun Electronic Edition reported
the following
広告減速、グーグルに逆風 技術開発に影
ネット・IT 北米 AI
2019/4/30 15:07日本経済新聞 電子版
【シリコンバレー=中西豊紀】米グーグルの親会社アルファベットが成長鈍化の壁に直面している。29日発表した2019年1～3月期の売上高は前年同期比伸び率が17%増と14四半期ぶりの低さとなった。主力の広告事業で競争が激化し、各国規制当局の視線も厳しさを増す。稼ぐ力の衰えは、人工知能（AI）など新技術の開発にも影響を及ぼしかねない。
「売上高の伸びについてもう少し説明してくれ」。アルファベットの決算説明会で、グーグルのスンダー・ピチャイ最高経営責任者（CEO）にアナリストから厳しい問いが相次いだ。引け後の株式市場で株価が7%急落したのは、同社が発表した約363億ドルの売上高が市場予想に届かなかったためだ。
鈍化の理由は売上高の85%を占める広告事業にある。事業の売上高伸び率は15%で、15年7～9月期以来の低水準。ネット広告で競合する米フェイスブックや米ツイッター、近年広告を強化している米アマゾン・ドット・コムとの競争激化が背景にあるとみられる。
アマゾン向けにターゲット広告のシステムをつくるフランスのスタートアップの幹部は「小売りサイトの閲覧はアマゾンが圧倒的」と話す。グーグルと組むより将来性があるとの見立てだ。
不信感が広告離れを招いている可能性がある。ルース・ポラット最高財務責任者（CFO）は広告収入の鈍化の多くは動画共有サイトのユーチューブによるものとしている。社会的に望ましくない動画やコメントが載ることがあり、米ウォルト・ディズニーなど広告主から批判があがる。
アナリストの中には今回の減速は「一時的なもの」（みずほ証券のジェームズ・リー氏）として構造要因を否定する声がある。だが、広告ビジネスを維持するためのコストは上がっている。
ユーチューブは不正コンテンツを監視するため18年だけで1万人を雇った。AIによる不正摘発だけでは判断に誤りが出るからだ。3月には欧州連合（EU）が広告でのEU競争法（独占禁止法）違反があったとして17億ドルの制裁金を科した。競合を力ずくで排除したと当局は見ている。
こうした負担がかさなり、19年1～3月期の最終利益は29%の大幅減だった。営業利益率は18%と4ポイント減った。不正や規制への対応など「社会的責任」にまつわるコストは引き続き同社にとって重いものとなる。
広告での稼ぐ力の低下は競争力低下につながりかねない。囲碁で人間のチャンピオンに勝つAIや業界の先を行く自動運転の技術の研究は赤字事業。盤石な広告収入を背景に開発を続けることが可能になっている。
グーグルが世界から優れた人材を集めることができるのもこうした先行研究への寛容な姿勢があるからだ。がんをAIで見つける研究をしているグーグルのある技術者は「お金を気にせず人の役に立つ仕事ができる」と大学から転籍した。
説明会でピチャイCEOは「四半期ではなく長期目線での経営だ」との言葉を繰り返した。とはいえ、長期戦に備えるために短期決戦で負けられないのも事実。決算後の株価急落は、長期戦略の前提の狂いを市場が見透かし始めたからなのかもしれない。
Translation
[Silicon Valley = Nakanishi Toyoki] Alphabet, the
parent company of US Google, was facing a wall of slowing down growth. The
sales for the period January-March 2019 announced on the 29th was an
increase of 17% over the same period last year yet was the first low in 14 quarters.
Competition had intensified in the main advertising business, and the eyes of individual
country's regulatory authorities could become increasingly severe. A decline in
earning power might affect the development of new technologies such as
artificial intelligence (AI).
"Please explain a little more about sales growth."
At Alphabet’s closing account briefing session, a series of tough questions
from analysts were pointed at Google's CEO of Sundar Pichai. The downturn by 7
percent appeared in the after-closing stock market was due to the fact that company's $36.3 billion in sales had failed to reach market forecasts.
The reason for the slowdown was in the advertising business,
which accounted for 85% of sales. Business sales growth rate was 15%, the
lowest level since July-September 2015. It was believed that at the background was
the intensifying competition with US Facebook and Twitter, which competed in
Internet advertising, and Amazon.Dot.com, which had strengthened its advertising
in recent years.
A French start-up executive who created a system of targeted-advertising
for the Amazon said, "Amazon leads the browsing of retail sites." It
looked like there would be more potential than partnering with Google.
Distrust might be causing advertising to move away. Ruth
Porat, the chief financial officer (CFO), said that much of the ad revenue
slowing down came from YouTube, a video-sharing site. Socially undesirable
videos and comments appeared there, and there were criticisms from the United
States such as Walt Disney who was the advertiser.
Some analysts said that the slowdown would be
"temporary" (James Lee of Mizuho Securities), denying structural
factors. But the cost of maintaining an advertising business was rising.
YouTube had hired 10,000 people alone in 2018 to monitor
fraudulent contents. It was because merely to rely on AI alone to detect fraudulence
could made an error in judgment. In March the European Union (EU) imposed a $
1.7 billion fine for violations of the EU competition law (Antitrust law) in
advertising. Authorities were watching over forcefully in eliminating
competitions.
Due to these burdens, the final profit in the first nine
months of 2019 decreased sharply by 29 percent. The operating profit margin
decreased 4 points to 18%. The costs associated with social responsibility,
such as fraud and regulatory compliance, continued to be heavy on the company.
A decline in earning power in advertising could lead to a
decline in competitiveness. That the AI could win human champions in the “Go”
Game, or that going to the forefront in the industry in research technology on
auto driving were money losing business. Only with solid advertising revenue at
the background that it was possible to continue with these developments.
The reason Google was able to attract talented people from
around the world was that they had such an open-minded attitude towards pioneer
research. A Google engineer, who was researching on finding out cancer by using
AI and was transferred from a university, said "I can do useful work without
worrying about money."
At the briefing session, Pichai reiterated the words, "It's a
long-term business, not a quarter." However, it was also true that you could
not lose a short-term battle in preparation for a long-term war. A fall in
stock prices after the closing might be because the market had begun to see
through the fantasy regarding the premise of a long-term strategy.
I think
it is a general situation that the advertisement business in general is facing
a slow-down.
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