U.S. December Employment Statistics: Employment Increased 50,000 from Previous Month, But Below Market Expectations

 Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

米 12月雇用統計 就業者は前月比5万人増も市場予想下回る

2026年1月9日午後11時13分

(2026年1月9日午後11時54分更新)

アメリカ

円相場や株価に影響を及ぼすアメリカの雇用統計が発表され、先月の農業分野以外の就業者は、前の月から5万人増加しましたが、市場予想を下回りました。一方、失業率は前の月と比べて0.1ポイント改善し、4.4％でした。

アメリカ労働省が9日、発表した先月の雇用統計によりますと、景気の動向を敏感に示す農業分野以外の就業者は、前の月から5万人増加しましたが市場の予想を下回りました。

また、去年10月分のデータが下方修正され、前の月と比べて10万5000人の減少から17万3000人の減少になりました。

一方、先月の失業率は、0.1ポイント改善し、4.4％でした。

失業率は去年7月以降、上昇傾向が続いていましたが、この傾向にひとまず歯止めがかかりました。

雇用統計はFRB＝連邦準備制度理事会が金融政策を判断するうえで重要な指標で、金融市場ではFRBのパウエル議長が今後の利下げは慎重に判断していく考えを示していることなどから、今月下旬に開く会合で金利を据え置くとの見方が広がっています。

FRBが、今回の雇用統計などを踏まえて減速傾向と指摘されている雇用情勢をどう判断するかが焦点となります。

Translation

U.S. December Employment Statistics: Employment Increased 50,000 from Previous Month, But Below Market Expectations

January 9, 2026, 11:13 PM

(Updated January 9, 2026, 11:54 PM)

U.S.

The U.S. employment statistics which affected the yen and stock prices had been released. Last month's non-agricultural employment increased by 50,000 from the previous month, but below market expectations. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate improved 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%.

According to last month's employment statistics released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 9th, non-agricultural employment, a sensitive indicator of economic trends, increased by 50,000 from the previous month, but below market expectations.

Additionally, data for October last year was revised downward, from a decrease of 105,000 from the previous month to a decrease of 173,000.

Meanwhile, last month's unemployment rate improved 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%.

The unemployment rate had been on an upward trend since July of last year, but this trend has now been halted for the time being.

Employment statistics were an important indicator used by the Federal Reserve when deciding on monetary policy, and with Fed Chairman Powell indicating that he would be cautious about future interest rate cuts, there was a widespread view in financial markets that interest rates could remain unchanged at their meeting later this month.

The focus would be on how the Fed was going to assess the employment situation, which had been noted to be slowing, in light of the latest employment statistics and other factors.

              So, the U.S. employment statistics which shows that last month's non-agricultural employment had increased by 50,000 from the previous month yet below market expectations. Apparently, people will now focus on how the Fed is going to judge the employment situation when deciding whether there should be a cut in the interest rate.

一個中國島嶼成為俄羅斯遊客的陽光普照避風港（2/2）

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

On a Chinese Island, a Sunny Sanctuary for Russian Tourists (2/2)

Russians find a refuge on the beaches of Sanya from sanctions and “sideways looks,” toasting the New Year beside a Chinese nuclear submarine base.

China dispatch - By Andrew HigginsVisuals by Gilles Sabrié. Reporting from Sanya, China

Jan. 8, 2026

Updated 3:37 a.m. ET

(continue)

“Our countries have a lot in common,” said a Russian-speaking Chinese guide, who gave his name as Piotr, leading a group of Russians on a visit to a rainforest near the city of Sanya, a popular Hainan beach resort and also the site of a huge naval base for Chinese nuclear submarines.

Invoking a Chinese stereotype of Russians, he apologized that there would only be beer and no vodka at lunch.

The cultural affinity described by the guide is good for business. At his grocery store in Sanya, Dimitry Garifullin, a businessman from the Russian town of Ufa, sells the comforts of home to a growing clientele. But Mr. Garifullin said he has been struck by a different kind of affinity: the local reverence for his own country’s leader, Vladimir V. Putin. Not a fan himself, he said: “Most Chinese like Putin. They see him as a very strong politician.”

But it is Russia, he said, that should learn from China. “Everyone can learn from China,” he added, pointing to economic growth that, even though now far slower than when he first arrived in 2005, still puts Russia’s sickly economy to shame.

His store, stocked with black bread, pickles, cheese, frozen fish, sausages and shelf after shelf of alcohol, did a roaring trade over the New Year holiday.

Asked whether his business had benefited from the war in Ukraine, which has turbocharged Hainan’s Russian tourist boom, he said he did not like the idea of profiting from the suffering of others. He added: “The country that has made the most profit off the war is China.”

His store is in Dadonghai, a resort area near the naval base that has so many Russian visitors that restaurant menus, official notices and shop signs nearly all come with translations in Russian instead of English, the usual lingua franca of mass tourism. Chinese hotel staff in the area greet foreign guests with “ZDRAST-vooy-tye” rather than “hello” or “ni hao.”

Loudspeakers controlled by the local government along the beach at Dadonghai blare the folk classic “Kalinka,” and other Russian favorites.

For some Russian visitors, particularly those who take a dim view of their country’s sharp authoritarian turn under President Putin, China can feel stifling, even by Moscow standards. Anton Poltoushkin, an IT developer from Moscow on his first trip to China, said he had tried to talk to his Chinese tour guide about Taiwan but had been told that the topic was “too sensitive.”

“I talk about the Ukraine war so why can’t you talk about Taiwan?” he said he had asked.

Mr. Poltoushkin said he would have preferred to go to Europe but could not easily get a visa for himself, his wife and young son.

“I love the south of France but how can I get to Nice or Monaco now?” he asked. “I never thought I would end up here but we don’t have many choices these days,” he added.

The European Union in November decided to stop issuing Russian tourist visas that allow for multiple visits and mandated tighter scrutiny of all applicants. This further tightened restrictions on entry to Europe by Russian citizens that began after the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

China moved in the opposite direction, allowing visa-free access for Russians to Hainan since 2024 and to the whole country since November, as it tries to revitalize the economy.

Raniya Terkulova, a retired doctor from the Russian region of Tatarstan, said she was on her fifth visit to Hainan. Her family has deep connections to China going back to the 1920s, she said, recalling happy Soviet-era memories of Chinese thermos flasks and other knickknacks. She added that she had for a long time “loved and admired China” and been a big believer in traditional Chinese medicine.

This trip, made with her daughter and granddaughter, however, ended the love affair. “I am very disappointed,” she said, recounting an angry clash on a beach with Chinese vacationers who she said had been rude and domineering.

Occasional culture clashes aside, most Russian visitors enjoy their time in Hainan for a simple reason: the weather. “It is now minus 30 degrees (-22 Fahrenheit) and snowing at home and here it plus 30 (86 Fahrenheit) and sunny,” said a cafe owner from the Siberian city of Khabarovsk who gave only her first name, Nataliya.

She said she used to go to Spain for sun but stopped after Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and the attitude of Spaniards toward Russians soured. “If they heard people speaking Russian in the hotel they wouldn’t clean their rooms properly,” she complained.

In China, she added, hotels are cheaper, and people don’t care about geopolitics, the war in Ukraine or other topics that rile many Europeans. “Chinese don’t spit at Russians like Europeans do,” she said.

Translation

一個中國島嶼成為俄羅斯遊客的陽光普照避風港（2/2）

俄羅斯遊客在三亞海灘找到了避風港，躲避制裁和奇異的目光，在中國核潛艇基地旁舉杯慶祝新年。

（繼續）

一位名叫彼得會說俄語的中國導遊說道:「我們兩國有很多共同之處」。他正帶領一群俄羅斯遊客參觀三亞附近的熱帶雨林。三亞是海南島著名的海濱度假勝地，同時也是中國核潛艦的大型海軍基地所在地。

他基於中國人對俄羅斯人的固有印象，抱歉地表示午餐只有啤酒，沒有伏特加。

導遊所描述的這種文化親近感對生意很有利。在三亞的雜貨店裡，來自俄羅斯Ufa市的商人Dimitry Garifullin向越來越多的顧客兜售著家鄉的舒適感。但Garifullin說，他感到一種截然不同的親和力：當地人對俄羅斯領導人普京的崇敬。他本人並非普京的擁躉，他說： “大多數中國人喜歡普京。他們認為他是一位非常強勢的政治家。”

但他表示，俄羅斯應該向中國學習。 他補充道:「每個人都可以向中國學習」，並指出中國的經濟成長雖然遠不及他2005年剛到中國時的速度，但仍然令俄羅斯疲軟的經濟相形見絀。

他的商店裡擺滿了黑麵包、醃菜、芝士、冷凍魚、香腸以及琳瑯滿目的酒類，新年假期期間生意興隆。

當被問及他的生意是否受益於烏克蘭戰爭（這場戰爭極大地促進了海南的俄羅斯遊客熱潮）時，他表示，他不喜歡從他人的苦難中牟利。他補充說：“從這場戰爭中獲利最多的國家是中國。”

他的店舖位於大東海，這是一個靠近海軍基地的度假區，俄羅斯遊客絡繹不絕，以至於餐廳菜單、官方公告和商店招牌幾乎都有俄語的翻譯而非英語，而英語通常是大眾旅遊的通用語言。該地區的中國酒店員工用“ZDRAST-vooy-tye”（俄語，意為“你好”）而不是“hello”（英語）或“ni hao”（國語，意為“你好”）。

在大東海海灘，當地政府控制的揚聲器播放著民謠經典《Kalinka》和其他俄羅斯流行歌曲。

對於一些俄羅斯遊客，特別是那些對普京總統領導下俄羅斯急劇轉向威權主義感到不滿的遊客來說，他們即使以莫斯科的標準來看中國, 也令他有壓抑感。來自莫斯科的IT開發人員Anton Poltoushkin是第一次來中國。他說，他曾試圖和中國導遊談論台灣問題，但被告知這個話題「太敏感」。

他回憶他曾問:「我可以談論烏克蘭戰爭，為什麼你們不能談論台灣？」。

Poltoushkin說，他原本更想去歐洲，但他自己、妻子和年幼的兒子都很難拿到簽證。

他問:「我喜歡法國南部，但現在我要怎樣去尼斯或摩納哥？」。 他補充道:「我從沒想過自己會落腳到這裡，但現在我們無太多選擇」。

歐盟於去年11月決定停止向俄羅斯發放可以多次入境的旅遊簽證，並對所有申請人進行更嚴格的審查。這是對自2022年2月俄羅斯全面入侵烏克蘭以來，針對俄羅斯公民入境歐洲的限制進一步收緊。

中國則採取了相反的措施，自2024年起允許俄羅斯公民免簽前往海南，並於去年11月起允許俄羅斯公民免簽前往中國其他地區，以期重振中國經濟。

來自俄羅斯韃靼斯坦共和國的退休醫生Raniya Terkulova表示，這是她第五次到訪海南。她說，她的家族與中國有著深厚的淵源，可以追溯到上世紀20年代，她回憶起蘇聯時期那些中國產的保溫瓶和其他小玩意兒，記憶猶新。她補充說，她一直以來都“熱愛並敬佩中國”，並且非常相信中醫。

然而，這次與女兒和孫女的旅程卻終結了這段美好的情緣。當她回憶起在海灘上與中國遊客發生的激烈衝突，她說那些遊客粗魯無禮、盛氣凌人。她說: 「我非常失望」。

撇開偶爾發生的文化衝突不談，大多數俄羅斯遊客喜歡在海南度假的原因很簡單：天氣。一位來自西伯利亞城市Khabarovsk的咖啡館老闆，她只透露了自己的名字叫Nataliya說: 「現在家鄉零下30度（華氏22度）還在下雪，而這裡是零上30度（86華氏度），陽光明媚」。

她說，她以前經常去西班牙曬太陽，但自從2014年俄羅斯從烏克蘭手中奪取克里米亞後，她就不再去了，因為西班牙人對俄羅斯人的態度變得惡劣。她抱怨道: 「如果他們在酒店裡聽到有人說俄語，他們就不會好好打掃其房間」。

她補充說，在中國，酒店更便宜，人們也不關心地緣政治、烏克蘭戰爭或其他令許多歐洲人憤怒的話題。 她說:「中國人不會像歐洲人那樣對俄羅斯人吐口水」。

So, unlike in many places in Europe, where Russians have learned to keep their voices down because of the war in Ukraine, the beaches of southern China offer a safe and sunny space for Russians. Some Russians feel that the country that get the most profit from the Ukraine war is China. Apparently, the war in Ukraine has affected the daily life of many middle-class Russian and also help tourism in China.

一個中國島嶼成為俄羅斯遊客陽光普照的避風港（1/2）

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

On a Chinese Island, a Sunny Sanctuary for Russian Tourists (1/2)

Russians find a refuge on the beaches of Sanya from sanctions and “sideways looks,” toasting the New Year beside a Chinese nuclear submarine base.

China dispatch - By Andrew HigginsVisuals by Gilles Sabrié. Reporting from Sanya, China

Jan. 8, 2026

Updated 3:37 a.m. ET

Gathered on New Year’s Eve in the banquet hall of a beachside hotel in southern China, tipsy revelers jumped to their feet to toast the arrival of 2026 — two hours early.

They were not befuddled by too much drink but wanted to celebrate the start of the New Year according to the time in Vladivostok, a Russian city two hours ahead of China.

Slurred cries went up, in Russian: “Happy New Year, Vladivostok! Happy New Year, Russian Far East!” Many of the partygoers — mostly Russians with a few Kazakhs and others from the former Soviet Union — drifted away from the hotel celebration before midnight, when the new year actually began.

Unlike in many places in Europe, where Russians have learned to keep their voices down because of the war in Ukraine, the beaches of southern China offer a safe and sunny space for Russians to behave as they would at home without fear of sideways looks.

Police officers who were out in force to prevent rowdiness broadcast warnings along beaches that fireworks were forbidden. But they stood by as Russian revelers, wobbling drunkenly in the sand, unleashed a barrage of Roman candles into the sea.

The number of Russian tourists visiting the tropical Chinese island has surged, fueling a local economy geared toward Russian tastes.

The number of Russian visitors to Hainan, a Chinese tropical island east of Vietnam in the South China Sea, increased 11 times between 2023 and 2024, making them by far the biggest group, buoyed by a visa-free policy and a hospitality that ignores the war in Ukraine. The Chinese authorities, perhaps fearful of alienating tourists from countries hostile to Russia, last year stopped releasing Hainan visitor figures by country. During the winter high season, the island receives eight or more flights each day from cities across Russia.

Too polite — and wary of losing good customers — to mention the rising death toll in Ukraine, Chinese whose livelihoods depend on serving Russian tourists work hard to make their guests feel comfortable and welcome, gushing about the friendship and shared interests of the two countries.

To make money and also make Russians feel at home, locals have opened fake copies of well-known Moscow restaurants like Chaihona No. 1, a popular, fairly high-end chain known for fusion food that blends Central Asian and Slavic cuisines. The knockoff version here is called Chaihona No. 9.

(to be continued)

Translation

一個中國島嶼成為俄羅斯遊客陽光普照的避風港（1/2）

俄羅斯遊客在三亞海灘上找到了避風港，躲避制裁和奇異的目光，在中國核潛艇基地旁舉杯慶祝新年。

在中國南方一家海濱酒店的宴會廳裡，醉醺醺的狂歡者跳起來慶祝2026 - 時間上早了兩個小時。

他們並非因飲酒過量而神智不清，而是想按照俄羅斯海參崴的時間慶祝新年的開始。海參崴比中國時間早兩小時。

含糊不清的俄語喊聲響起：「海參崴新年快樂！俄羅斯遠東地區新年快樂！」, 許多參加派對的人 - 主要是俄羅斯人，還有一些哈薩克斯坦人和來自前蘇聯其他地區的人 - 在午夜之前就離開了酒店的慶祝活動，而午夜才是新年真正開始的時間。

與歐洲許多地方不同，由於烏克蘭戰爭的影響，俄羅斯人學會了壓低聲音，而中國南方的海灘則為俄羅斯人提供了一個安全、陽光充足的地方，讓他們可以像在家一樣盡情狂歡，不必擔心別人的側目。

為了防止騷亂，警方部署了大量警力，並在海灘上廣播警告，禁止燃放煙花。然而，當俄羅斯狂歡者醉醺醺地在沙灘上搖搖晃晃地向大海發射一連串的羅馬煙花時，他們卻袖手旁觀。

前往這座熱帶中國島嶼的俄羅斯遊客數量激增，推動了當地經濟的發展，使其迎合俄羅斯人的口味。

2023年至2024年間，造訪中國海南島（位於南海，越南以東）的俄羅斯遊客數量增加了11倍，成為迄今為止最大的遊客群體。這主要得益於免簽政策以及當地對烏克蘭戰爭漠不關心的熱情好客。或許是擔心會疏遠來自對俄羅斯有敵意的國家的遊客，中國當局去年停止公佈海南島的遊客國籍統計數據。冬天旅遊旺季期間，每天有八個或更多航班從俄羅斯各地飛往海南島。

基於禮貌 - 也擔心失去忠實顧客 - 那些依靠服務俄羅斯遊客謀生的中國人不願提及烏克蘭不斷上升的死亡人數，竭盡全力讓客人感到舒適和賓至如歸，並熱情地談論兩國之間的友誼和共同利益

為了賺錢，也為了讓俄羅斯遊客感到賓至如歸，當地人開設了許多仿冒莫斯科知名餐廳例如「Chaihona一號」。 「Chaihona一號」是一家頗受歡迎的高級連鎖餐廳，以融合中亞和斯拉夫風味的菜餚而聞名。這裡的仿冒品名為「Chaihona 九號」。

 （待續）

美國貿易逆差降至2009年以來最低水平，關稅重塑貿易格局

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

U.S. Trade Deficit Fell to Lowest Level Since 2009 as Tariffs Reshape Trade

The monthly trade deficit continued to shrink in October after President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on imports, the latest data showed.

By Ana Swanson - Ana Swanson covers international trade and reported from Washington

Jan. 8, 2026

Updated 11:08 a.m. ET

The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services shrank to $29.4 billion in October, down from $48.1 billion the prior month as the Trump administration’s tariffs reshaped global trade, data from the Commerce Department showed on Thursday.

The figure was the lowest monthly trade deficit recorded since June 2009. U.S. imports have fallen while exports have remained strong, decreasing the trade deficit and seemingly accomplishing a major goal for President Trump.

But economists cautioned that some of the trend resulted from temporary fluctuations in trade in certain products, like gold and pharmaceuticals. Because of a surge in imports earlier this year, the overall trade deficit from January to October was still up 7.7 percent from the previous year.

Imports in October fell 3.2 percent to $331.4 billion from the previous month, while exports rose 2.6 percent to $302 billion. Because exports grew more than imports, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed.

Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said that there was a lot of noise in the data for the month, and that gold and silver markets in particular had been “bonkers.”

Another force narrowing the trade deficit in the month was a collapse in pharmaceutical imports, he said. Drug companies stockpiled pharmaceuticals ahead of tariffs going into effect on the sector on Oct. 1, though many firms were ultimately spared from tariffs.

“Cutting through the noise and getting to the underlying signal in the data, it suggests to me that the deficit is as large as its ever been,” Mr. Zandi said.

Trade flows have fluctuated wildly this year because of Mr. Trump’s tariffs. The president announced sweeping global tariffs in April, before pausing them for several months to carry out trade negotiations. Those tariffs went back into effect on Aug. 7.

On Aug. 29, the Trump administration also ended the “de minimis” exemption, which allowed foreign shipments valued at less than $800 to come into the United States tariff-free.

The administration has also imposed a variety of tariffs on products and sectors it deemed important to national security, including steel, copper and upholstered furniture. As of November, the U.S. effective tariff rate had climbed to more than 16 percent, the highest level since 1935, according to the Budget Lab at Yale, making it significantly more expensive for importers to bring goods into the country.

The Trump administration has pointed to the lower monthly trade deficits in recent months as evidence that its trade policies were working. Mr. Trump has long seen the trade deficit as a sign of an ailing American economy. He and his supporters argue that tariffs will narrow it, by boosting U.S. factory production and reducing imports.

But economists argue that bigger economic forces typically determine the size of the trade deficit, like savings rates and government spending. They have also cautioned against drawing too many conclusions from a few months of data in a particularly volatile year.

Companies imported large amounts of inventory earlier this year before tariffs went into effect, then subsequently reduced their purchases. The question for economists now is whether trade will return to more normal levels as company stockpiles go down, or if tariffs will continue to depress imports and decrease the trade deficit.

For the year through October, exports are up 6.3 percent annually, while imports have risen 6.6 percent, according to the data, which is compiled by the Census Bureau.

Tariffs could undergo more changes in the weeks to come. The Supreme Court is set to rule soon on the legality of many of the tariffs that Mr. Trump issued using a 1970s emergency law. But Trump officials have said that if those tariffs were struck down, they would use other authorities to impose new duties.

Diane Swonk, an economist at KPMG, described the monthly drop in the trade deficit as “stunning,” but said that it was largely driven by trade in gold. Investors have been buying and selling gold in part to offset uncertainty related to the tariffs this year. Gold made up nearly 90 percent of the rise in exports in October and about 13 percent of the decline in imports, she said.

Americans imported slightly more passenger cars, cellphones, toys and appliances in the month. And imports of high-tech goods remained strong because of tariff waivers for the electronics sector and the building of American data centers to feed A.I. demand, Ms. Swonk said.

The U.S. trade deficit with China continued to shrink in October, while trade deficits with Mexico, Thailand and Taiwan all hit record highs, in part reflecting A.I.-related imports.

Beyond gold and precious metals, exports of other products looked relatively weak. Shipments abroad of American aircraft, computers, soybeans and pharmaceutical goods all fell on a monthly basis in October. Soybean exports were down $3.3 billion in the year through October, as China curtailed its purchases of U.S. beans and bought from South America instead.

Translation

美國貿易逆差降至2009年以來最低水平，關稅重塑貿易格局

最新數據顯示，在特朗普總統對進口商品加徵全面關稅後，10月美國貿易逆差持續收窄。

美國商務部週四公佈的數據顯示，特朗普政府關稅政策重塑全球貿易格局的影響，10月份美國商品和服務貿易逆差收窄至294億美元，低於上月的481億美元。

這是自2009年6月以來的最低月貿易逆差。美國進口下降，而出口維持強勁，貿易逆差因此減少，似乎實現了特朗普總統的重要目標。

但經濟學家警告稱，部分趨勢是由於某些產品（如黃金和藥品）貿易的暫時性波動造成的。由於今年稍早進口激增，1月至10月的整體貿易逆差仍比去年同期上升7.7%。

10月份進口額較上季下降3.2%至3,314億美元，而出口額較上季增加2.6%至3,020億美元。由於出口上升超過進口，美國貿易逆差有所縮小。

穆迪分析公司首席經濟學家Mark Zandi表示，當月的數據有許多幹擾因素，尤其是黃金和白銀市場「異常瘋狂」。

他指出，當月貿易逆差收窄的另一個原因是藥品進口量大幅下降。製藥公司在10月1日該行業關稅生效前囤積了大量藥品，許多公司最終免於關稅。

Zandi表示： “如果能夠撥開迷霧，從數據中得出根本信號，我認為目前的貿易逆差規模與歷史最高水平相約。”

由於特朗普總統的關稅政策，今年的貿易流量波動劇烈。總統在4月宣布了一系列全球關稅措施，隨後暫停數月以進行貿易談判。這些關稅於8月7日重新生效。

8月29日，特朗普政府還取消了「最低限度」豁免，該豁免允許價值低於800美元的外國貨物免稅進入美國。

此外，特朗普政府也對一些其認為對國家安全至關重要的產品和產業徵收了多種關稅，包括鋼鐵、銅和有軟墊的家具。根據耶魯大學預算實驗室的數據，截至11月，美國的實際關稅稅率已攀升至16%以上，為1935年以來的最高水平，這使得進口商將商品進口到美國的成本顯著增加。

特朗普政府指出，近幾個月來每月貿易逆差的下降表明其貿易政策正在發揮作用。特朗普長期以來一直將貿易逆差視為美國經濟疲軟的象徵。他和他的支持者認為，關稅將透過促進美國工廠生產和減少進口來縮小貿易逆差。

但經濟學家指出，通常是有更大的經濟因素決定出貿易逆差的規模，例如儲蓄率和政府支出。他們還警告說，在今年這個經濟波動尤為劇烈的年份，僅憑幾個月的數據就得出過多結論是不妥的。

今年早些時候，在關稅生效之前，企業大量進口了庫存，隨後又減少了採購。經濟學家現在面臨的問題是，隨著企業庫存的減少，貿易是否會恢復到更正常的水平，還是關稅將繼續抑制進口並縮小貿易逆差。

根據人口普查局彙編的數據，截至10月的一年中，出口年增6.3%，進口年增6.6%。

未來幾週，關稅政策可能會有更多變化。最高法院即將就特朗普總統依據20世紀70年代的緊急法案頒布的許多關稅的合法性做出裁決。但特朗普政府官員表示，如果這些關稅被推翻，他們將動用其他權力徵收新的關稅。

KPMG會計師事務所經濟學家Diane Swonk形容10月份貿易逆差的下降“令人震驚”，但她指出，這主要是由黃金貿易推動的。投資者一直在買賣黃金，部分原因是抵消今年關稅帶來的不確定性。她說，10月份黃金出口增長佔出口成長的近90%，佔進口下降約13%。

當月，美國進口的汽車、手機、玩具和家用電器略有增加。Swonk表示，由於電子產品產業的關稅豁免以及美國為滿足人工智能需求而建造的數據中心，便高科技產品的進口依然強勁。

10月份，美國對華貿易逆差持續縮小，而對墨西哥、泰國和台灣的貿易逆差均創歷史新高，部分原因是與人工智能有關的進口。

除黃金和貴金屬外，其他產品的出口表現相對疲軟。 10月份，美國飛機、電腦、大豆和藥品的出口額均較上月下降。截至10月的一年中，大豆出口額下降了33億美元，因為中國減少了對美國大豆的採購，轉而從南美洲進口。

              So, the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services shrank in October. The figure was the lowest monthly trade deficit recorded since June 2009. Such a decrease in the trade deficit seems to have accomplished a major goal for Trump. But economists point out that typically bigger economic forces determine the size of the trade deficit. They have also cautioned against drawing too many conclusions from a few months of data, especially in a volatile year.

科學家在6萬年前的箭矢上發現最古老的毒藥

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

Scientists Discover Oldest Poison, on 60,000-Year-Old Arrows

Residues on arrow tips found in South Africa hint at how far back in history humans have been using poison for survival.

Trilobites - By Becky Ferreira

Jan. 7, 2026

Today it seems obvious: Dip a sharp object in a poisonous substance, and then use that weapon to take down your prey. But when did human beings figure out this deadly strategy?

It remains as mysterious as the dawn of setting fires, building wheels and painting on caves. But a new study pushes back the timeline of this innovative hunting technique by tens of thousands of years.

Researchers led by Sven Isaksson, a professor of archaeological science at Stockholm University, have discovered poison residues on 60,000-year-old arrow tips unearthed in South Africa. With the next-oldest trace of poison use dated to 35,000 years ago, these tips preserve the earliest evidence of poisoned weapons by a wide margin.

“It’s a big leap,” Dr. Isaksson said of the discovery, which was published on Wednesday in the journal Science Advances.

“It might be an even earlier practice,” he added. “This is just the earliest evidence so far.”

The finding reinforces existing evidence that early Homo sapiens had cognitive abilities nearing the sophistication of our own. That’s because in order to tip an arrow with poison, hunters needed knowledge of local plants and their effects, as well as the ability to craft special weapons with the right dosages.

“It takes a developed working memory to be able to predict that if I put this arrowhead into that plant, it will shorten the delay before I get my hands on this meat,” Dr. Isaksson said.

Dr. Isaksson and colleagues examined specimens that were originally discovered in 1985 at the Umhlatuzana Rock Shelter in eastern South Africa. The shelter contains layers of archaeological remains that were left tens of thousands of years ago. The researchers were inspired to look more closely at a handful of quartz arrow tips lodged in sediments estimated to be 60,000 years old.

The arrow points are unusually small, which suggests that they might have been crafted to deliver poison efficiently into an impact wound, as opposed to inflicting a blunt-force injury.

The team performed chemical and molecular analyses of the artifacts. That revealed two toxic compounds, buphanidrine and epibuphanisine, that were most likely collected from Boophone disticha, a plant known as the Bushman’s poison bulb. It remains a frequent source of poison used by traditional hunters in the region, such as the San and Khoe peoples, to this day, helping them slow their prey rather than kill it with a knockout blow.

Felix Riede, a professor of archaeology at Aarhus University in Denmark, called the discovery a “spectacular finding” that appears to be “the earliest evidence of poison use globally so far.”

He added that the paper was a demonstration “that it is possible to extract poison signatures from even very ancient residues on stone tools.” Similar compounds should be sought elsewhere, he said.

Michelle C. Langley, an associate professor of archaeology at the Australian Research Centre for Human Evolution at Griffith University, likewise pointed to the possibility that new clues about this ancient tradition may be hidden at other fossil sites or in collections.

“It is always worth going back and taking another look,” Dr. Langley said. “Especially as our techniques get better and cheaper and faster, people can at least look for things in the tiny little crevices and cracks where maybe something has been kept all those years.”

She also noted that the identification of these poison-tipped weapons added to a growing body of evidence that our human ancestors 60,000 years ago — and even earlier — were cognitively on par with modern humans.

“I’m not surprised that they found this,” Dr. Langley said. “It’s just building on everything that’s come before it, and really substantiating that the people 60,000 years ago were as complex as we are today.”

Translation

科學家在6萬年前的箭矢上發現最古老的毒藥

在南非發現的箭尖上的毒藥殘留物揭示了人類使用毒藥求生的歷史可以追溯到多麼久遠的年代。

如今看來，這似乎是顯浅：將尖銳的物體浸入毒液中，然後用這件武器獵殺獵物。但人類究竟在何時掌握了這種致命的策略呢？

它至今仍像人類發明火、製造車輪和在洞穴中作畫一樣神秘。但一項新的研究將這種創新狩獵技術的歷史向前推前了數萬年。

由斯德哥爾摩大學考古學教授領導的研究團隊在南非出土的6萬年前的箭尖上發現了毒藥殘留物。繼35,000年前發現的第二古老的毒藥使用痕跡之後，這些箭尖保存了迄今為止發現的最早的毒藥武器證據，時間上大幅度先於第二古老的。

Isaksson博士在談到這項週三發表在《科學進展》（Science Advances）雜誌上的發現時說道: 「這是一項重大突破」。

他補充道:“這或許是一種更早的狩獵技術實踐”，“這只是目前為止發現的最早證據。”

這項發現進一步證實了早期智人的認知能力已接近我們現代人的水平。這是因為，為了在箭尖上塗毒，獵人需要了解當地植物及其作用，以及製作含有正確劑量毒藥的特殊武器的能力。

Isaksson博士說: 「需要一個成熟的工作記憶才能預測到，如果我把這個箭頭放進那株植物裡，它會縮短我拿到這塊肉的等待時間」。

Isaksson博士及其同事研究了原先於1985年在南非東部Umhlatuzana岩棚發現的標本。該岩棚包含數萬年前遺留下來的多層考古遺跡。研究人員受到啟發，開始仔細研究幾枚嵌在估計有6萬年歷史的沉積物中的石英箭頭。

這些箭頭異常小巧，這表明它們可能是為了有效地將毒液注入受擊中的傷口而設計，而不是為了施加鈍性傷害。

研究團隊對這些文物進行了化學和分子分析。分析結果顯示，其中含有兩種有毒化合物：布芬尼鹼和表布芬尼鹼，它們很可能是從一種名為“刺眼花”（Boophone disticha）的植物中提取的，這種植物也被稱為“布什曼人的毒球莖”。時至今日，這種毒藥仍然是該地區傳統獵人（例如San人和Khoe人）常用的毒藥來源，它幫助減緩獵物的速度，而不是一擊斃命。

丹麥奧胡斯大學考古學教授Felix Riede稱這一發現為“驚人的發現”，並認為這是“迄今為止全球範圍內最早的毒藥使用證據”。

他補充說，這篇論文證明「即使是非常古老的石器殘留物，也有可能提取出毒藥的痕跡」。他表示，應該在其他地方尋找類似的化合物。

格里菲斯大學澳洲人類演化研究中心考古學副教授Michelle C. Langley也指出，關於這項古老傳統的線索可能隱藏在其他化石遺址或收藏品中。

Langley博士說: 「回頭再仔細研究一次總是值得」; 「尤其隨著技術越來越先進、成本越來越低、速度越來越快，人們至少可以去那些細小的縫隙和裂縫裡尋找東西，說不定有些東西就藏在那裡好多年了」。

她也指出，這些毒刺武器的發現，加大了在增加中的證據，顯示我們人類祖先在6萬年前 - 甚至更早 - 的認知能力就與現代人不相上下。

Langley博士說: “我對他們的發現並不感到驚訝” ， “這只是建立在之前所有研究成果的基礎上，真正證實了6萬年前的人類和我們今天的人類一樣複雜。”

              So, researchers have discovered poison residues on 60,000-year-old arrow tips unearthed in South Africa. With the next-oldest trace of poison use dated to 35,000 years ago, these tips preserve the earliest evidence of poisoned weapons by a wide margin. Apparently, these poison-tipped weapons add to a growing body of evidence that our human ancestors 60,000 years ago were as clever as we are.

Note:

1. Buphanidrine and epibuphanisine (布芬尼鹼和表布芬尼鹼) are Amaryllidaceae alkaloids, a class of naturally occurring compounds found mainly in plants of the genus Buphane (family Amaryllidaceae), which are native to southern Africa. Buphane plants are poisonous; alkaloids like buphanidrine contribute to their toxicity. (ChatGPT)

正在有貿易順差1兆美元的中國, 向世界推銷其免稅島嶼（2/2）

China Sells the World on Its Duty-Free Island, Amid a $1 Trillion Trade Surplus (2/2)

Policies meant to lure importers to Hainan, a resort island off China’s coast, signal an opening up, Beijing says. One expert calls it a “bait and switch.”

By Andrew Higgins

Jan. 7, 2026

(continue)

Although highly restricted, the possibility of access to the Chinese market beyond Hainan is already attracting a few foreign companies that would otherwise face high tariffs trying to sell to Guangdong or other Chinese provinces.

Nesredin Hussein, a coffee merchant from Ethiopia, recently rented a warehouse near Haikou to store beans imported to the island duty-free. He plans to buy roasting equipment so he can process coffee brought into Hainan tariff-free and then ship it to other parts of China for sale without paying a tariff or tax.

“For me, this is a very good opportunity” given China’s voracious appetite for coffee, he said, noting that he would otherwise have to pay up to 30 percent in tariffs and other taxes on any beans he imported into mainland China directly. “Here the rate is zero,” he said, after a visit with his wife and three children to the Hainan branch of Harrow School, an elite British boarding school.

Less convinced is Kamthon Wangudom, an ethnic Chinese businessman from Thailand who, invited to Hainan in December to visit a village where his ancestors lived, was taken first to an exhibition center pitching the island’s investment opportunities. He said his renewable energy company in Bangkok had already invested in Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines but was staying away from China because it “is too big and too complicated.” He is skeptical the new tariff regime will change much.

Hainan likes to compare itself to Hawaii for its palm-fringed beaches and resorts; like Hawaii, it is also studded with military facilities. These include a giant naval base near the southern resort town of Sanya that has grown rapidly as China asserted its claims over the South China Sea. Mr. Xi visited Hainan in November to tout the duty-free policies. But his main purpose was to inspect the naval base and attend the commissioning of a new aircraft carrier. Mr. Xi made clear that the strategic importance of Hainan means that security interests must trump economic ambitions.

Communist Party officials have plastered Haikou with red banners praising Mr. Xi and a “new era of openness.” Yet they declined to be interviewed for this article and ordered private companies on the island not to discuss how the new tariff-free regime might help or hurt their business.

Officials have good reason to be jittery. A few days before the tariff-free system began last month, a court in Shanghai sentenced the island’s former longtime Communist Party leader, Luo Baoming, to 15 years in jail for taking more than 113 million yuan (about $16 million) in bribes over a nearly three-decade career.

Mr. Luo was the latest senior Hainan official to be sent to jail in recent years for corruption.

Hainan has a history of big plans that often disappoint, starting with its designation as China’s last but biggest Special Economic Zone in 1988, a high tide of cooperation with foreign business that has receded rapidly since Mr. Xi came to power in 2012.

Unable to match the extraordinary economic growth of rival special zones like Shenzhen, next to Hong Kong, Hainan was for years largely seen as a sunny also-ran. It built up its tourist industry, including medical tourism, and constructed new highways and high-speed railway lines. In the 1990s, it spawned a property crash on the island, the first in China under communism.

Mr. Xi first announced plans to turn Hainan into a free-trade mecca in 2018. The project began with the opening of huge duty-free malls in Haikou and Sanya. This attracted Chinese tourists looking for discounted foreign luxury brands but failed to reverse the economic fortunes of an island still scarred by the impact of the property meltdown.

Today’s development of Hainan’s free port “faces tough reality checks,” according to a study by the Asia Competitiveness Institute at the National University of Singapore. Hainan is far less successful than other Chinese Special Economic Zones and attracts relatively little direct foreign investment, the report said.

For others, however, the importance of Hainan is its role as a test ground for innovative policies that don’t rock the boat.

The free trade port experiment will allow China to try out new approaches to such things as finance, education and taxes, said Lauren Johnson, founder of New South Economics, a consultancy in Melbourne, Australia, “while concurrently protecting the status quo on the mainland.”

Translation

正在有貿易順差1兆美元的中國, 向世界推銷其免稅島嶼（2/2）

北京方面表示，旨在吸引進口商前往中國沿海度假島嶼海南的政策標誌著中國正在開放市場。一位專家稱之為「誘餌和轉變」。

（繼續）

外國公司如果試圖向廣東或其他中國省份銷售產品，將面臨高關稅。但儘管受到諸多限制，進入中國海南以外地區的市場仍可能性已經吸引了一些外國公司。

來自埃塞俄比亞的咖啡商Nesredin Hussein最近在海口附近租了一個倉庫，用於儲存免稅進口到海南的咖啡豆。他計劃購買烘焙設備，以便加工免稅運入海南的咖啡，然後將其運往中國其他地區銷售，而無需繳納關稅或稅款。

他說道:「對我來說，這是一個絕佳的機會」，並指出中國對咖啡需求巨大, 他意識到如果直接進口到中國大陸的咖啡豆將需要繳納高達30%的關稅和其他稅費。他帶著妻子和三個孩子參觀了英國精英寄宿學校哈羅公學的海南分校後說道: 「在這裡稅率是零」。

來自泰國的華裔商人Kamthon Wangudom則對此持不同看法。去年12月，他受邀前往海南探訪祖籍村莊，卻先被帶到一個推廣海南投資機會的展覽中心。他表示，他在曼谷的再生能源公司已經在台灣、日本和菲律賓投資，但一直避開中國，因為中國「太大，太複雜」。他懷疑新的關稅制度能否帶來多大改變。

海南喜歡將自己比喻為夏威夷，因為那裡有棕櫚樹環繞的海灘和度假勝地；和夏威夷一樣，海南也遍布軍事設施。其中包括位於南部度假勝地三亞附近的巨型海軍基地，隨著中國在南海問題上主張主權，基地迅速擴張。習近平主席去年11月訪問海南去宣傳免稅政策。但他此行的主要目的是視察海軍基地並出席一艘新航空母艦的服役儀式。習近平主席明確表示，海南的戰略重要性意味著安全利益必須高於經濟​​利益追求。

中共官員在海口張貼了大量讚揚習近平主席和「新開放時代」的紅色橫幅。然而，他們拒絕就本文接受採訪，並命令島上的私人企業不得討論新的免稅制度可能對其業務產生幫助或損害。

官員的擔憂不無道理。就在上個月免稅制度生效前幾天，上海法院判處海南前長期擔任中共領導人的Luo Baoming 15年有期徒刑，罪名是他在近30年的從政生涯中收受了超過1.13億元人民幣（約合1600萬美元）的賄賂。

Luo是近年來海南省因貪腐被判入獄的最新一位高級官員。

海南省歷來雄心勃勃，但往往事與願違。 1988年，海南被指定為中國最後一個也是最大的經濟特區，與外國企業的合作蓬勃發展，但自習近平2012年上台以來，這種合作勢頭迅速減弱。

由於無法與香港附近的深圳特區等競爭對手的驚人經濟成長相比，海南多年來一直被視為一個「陽光明媚的二流對手」。海南發展了旅遊業，包括醫療旅遊，並建造了新的高速公路和高鐵。在1990年代，海南爆發了房地產泡沫破裂，這是中國共產黨執政以來的第一次。

2018年，習近平首次宣佈計劃將海南打造為自由貿易中心。該計劃首先在海口和三亞開設了大型免稅購物中心。這吸引了前來尋找打折扣的外國奢侈品牌的中國遊客，但卻未能扭轉海南島的經濟命運，使其擺脫房地產崩盤帶來的創傷。

新加坡國立大學亞洲競爭力研究所的一項研究指出，海南自由港如今的發展「面臨嚴峻的現實考驗」。報告稱，海南遠不如其他中國經濟特區成功，吸引的外國直接投資也相對較少。

然而，對其他人來說，海南的重要性在於它能夠作為創新政策的試驗場，而又不會引發動盪。

澳洲墨爾本顧問公司新南威爾斯經濟諮詢公司創辦人Lauren Johnson表示，自由貿易港的試點將使中國能夠在金融、教育和稅收等領域嘗試新的方法，「同時又能維持大陸的現狀」。

So, most foreign goods can flow freely into Hainan now. But those imports are not allowed to leave the island for other parts of the country unless stringent conditions are met. These policies are meant to prevent the tariff-free imports to Hainan from seeping into other parts of the country, where high tariffs remain in force. Goods imported to Hainan cannot be shipped to other parts of China duty-free unless they have been processed in ways that increase their value by at least 30 percent. Although highly restricted, the possibility of access to the Chinese market beyond Hainan is already attracting a few foreign companies that would otherwise face high tariffs trying to sell to Guangdong or other Chinese provinces. I am interested in knowing whether this experiment will succeed.

正在有貿易順差1兆美元的中國, 向世界推銷其免稅島嶼（1/2）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

China Sells the World on Its Duty-Free Island, Amid a $1 Trillion Trade Surplus (1/2)

Policies meant to lure importers to Hainan, a resort island off China’s coast, signal an opening up, Beijing says. One expert calls it a “bait and switch.”

By Andrew Higgins

Jan. 7, 2026

With tariffs rising around the world and President Trump vowing an end to decades of globalization, China’s leadership is trumpeting a tropical island as proof that it is moving in the opposite direction.

The island of Hainan — a province of China off the country’s southern coast 50 times the size of Singapore — last month scrapped tariffs on most imports, slashed corporate and individual taxes and declared itself the world’s largest “free trade port.” China declared it an emblem of its readiness for two-way trade with the world.

Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, called Hainan “a significant gateway leading China’s opening up in the new era.”

As portrayed by Beijing, Hainan’s experiment with tariff-free trade recalls the spirit of China’s early reform era after the death of Mao Zedong in 1976. The Communist Party ditched socialist dogma and began testing bold free-market policies in certain areas. Those that worked were rolled out more widely.

China’s place in global trade is very different now. The country has grown into the world’s unrivaled manufacturing power and second-largest economy. Mr. Xi has repeatedly called for self-reliance and worked to ensure that China is never dependent on anything foreign. He has shown little interest in altering the high tariffs and export-focused policies that helped give China a gargantuan $1 trillion trade surplus last year.

“There is no sign that Hainan is a forerunner for a broader and more systematic opening up of the national economy,” said Richard McGregor, a senior fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute, an Australian research center. “At a time of record trade surpluses,” he added, Hainan’s new role as a free trade entrepôt “has a strong whiff of bait and switch about it in political and P.R. terms.”

Most foreign goods can now flow freely into Hainan, whose 10 million people account for less than 1 percent of China’s total population. But those imports are not allowed to leave the island for other parts of the country unless stringent conditions are met.

The combination of policies is meant to prevent the tariff-free imports to Hainan from seeping into other parts of the country, where high tariffs remain in force.

That China has no plans to abandon its protectionist trade policies was made clear a few days after the Hainan Free Trade Port began working on Dec. 18: The commerce ministry in Beijing imposed tariffs of up to 42.7 percent on dairy imports to China from Europe.

On the last day of the year, the ministry announced what it called “safeguard measures on imported beef,” a system of quotas and tariffs of 55 percent designed to limit imports. And on Tuesday, it said it would put tight controls on exports of goods to Japan that have dual civilian and military uses.

Goods imported to Hainan cannot be shipped to other parts of China duty-free unless they have been processed in ways that increase their value by at least 30 percent.

At Haikou’s New Port, a gigantic passenger and cargo terminal in the provincial capital, ships sail night and day to the neighboring province of Guangdong. But what used to be a domestic transport hub has become in effect an international border. The Chinese customs service controls the flow of goods out of Hainan to elsewhere in China, checking trucks for any duty-free goods that are being smuggled into the rest of the country.

(to be continued)

Translation

正在有貿易順差1兆美元的中國, 向世界推銷其免稅島嶼（1/2）

北京方面表示，旨在吸引進口商前往中國海南島, 一個沿海度假島嶼的政策，標誌著中國正在走向開放。一位專家稱之為「誘餌和轉變」。

隨著全球關稅不斷上升，特朗普總統誓言要終結數十年的全球化進程，但中國領導層大肆宣傳一座熱帶島嶼，證明中國正在朝著相反的方向發展。

海南島 - 位於中國南部沿海，面積是新加坡的50倍 - 上個月取消了大部分進口商品的關稅，大幅削減了企業和個人所得稅，並宣布自己是世界上最大的「自由貿易港」。中國稱其為與世界開展雙向貿易的象徵。

中國最高領導人習近平稱海南為「引領中國新時代對外開放的重要門戶」。

北京方面認為，海南的零關稅貿易試驗讓人想起1976年毛澤東逝世後中國改革開放初期的精神。當時，中國共產黨摒棄了社會主義教條，開始在某些領域試行大膽的自由市場政策。那些發現行之有效的政策被廣泛推廣。

如今，中國在全球貿易中的地位已截然不同。中國已發展成為世界首屈一指的製造業強國和第二大經濟體。習近平主席多次呼籲自力更生，並致力於確保中國永遠不依賴任何外國。他似乎没有興趣對改變高入口關稅和出口導向政策，而正是這些政策幫助中國在去年實現了高達1兆美元的貿易順差。

澳洲洛伊研究所東亞高級研究員Richard McGregor表示:「沒有任何跡象表明海南是更廣泛、更具系統性開放國民經濟的先驅」。他補充道: 「在貿易順差創歷史新高之際」，海南作為自由貿易轉口港的新角色，「從政治和公關角度來看，帶有濃厚的誘餌和轉變意味」。

如今，大部分外國商品可以自由流入海南島，該島人口僅1,000萬，佔中國總人口的不到1%。但除非滿足嚴格的條件，這些進口商品不得離開海南島，流入中國其他地區。

這一系列政策旨在防止免稅進口到海南的商品流入中國其他地區，因為這些地區仍然實施高關稅。

中國沒有放棄貿易保護主義政策的計劃就已昭然若揭, 海南自由貿易港於12月18日投入運營幾天后：北京商務部對從歐洲進口到中國的乳製品徵收最高達42.7%的關稅。

在2025年的最後一天，商務部宣佈了所謂的“進口牛肉保障措施”，這是一套配額制度，並徵收高達55%的關稅，旨在限制進口。週二，商務部表示將對出口到日本的軍民兩用商品實施嚴格管制。

進口到海南的貨物，除非經過當地加工使其價值增加至少30%，否則不能免稅運往中國其他地區。

在海口新港, 一個海南省的巨型客貨碼頭, 船隻日夜不停地駛往鄰近的廣東省。但這個曾經是國內的交通樞紐，如今實際上已成為國際邊界。中國海關控制從海南流向中國其他地區的貨物，檢查貨車上是否有任何走私免稅貨物進入中國其他地區。

（待續）