根據《金融時報》報道，儘管美國實施限制，價值10億美元的英偉達AI晶片仍進入中國

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Nvidia AI chips worth $1 billion entered China despite US curbs, FT reports

Reuters - Reporting by Jaspreet Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur

Thu, July 24, 2025 at 5:27 a.m. PDT·2 min read

(Reuters) -Nvidia's advanced artificial intelligence chips worth at least $1 billion were smuggled to China in the three months after Washington tightened chip export controls, the Financial Times reported on Thursday.

The AI chip designer's high-end B200 processors, banned for sale in China, is widely available on a thriving Chinese black market for U.S. chips, the report said, citing sales contracts, company filings and multiple people with direct knowledge of the deals.

Nvidia told Reuters that building data centers with smuggled products is inefficient both technically and financially, as the company only offers service and support for authorized products.

The U.S. Department of Commerce, White House and Thai government did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Reuters could not independently verify the FT report.

In May, multiple Chinese distributors started selling B200s to suppliers of data centers that serve Chinese AI groups, according to the report.

The U.S. and China are battling for global dominance in AI and other cutting-edge technologies, triggering a tightrope walk for companies such as Nvidia between the world's two largest economies.

Nvidia last week said it would be allowed to resume sales to China after the Trump administration reversed an export restriction on the sales of chips such as H20. The curbs were imposed in April.

In the three months before that, Chinese distributors from Guangdong, Zhejiang and Anhui provinces sold Nvidia's B200s, as well as other restricted processors such as the H100 and H200, according to the report.

Southeast Asian countries have become markets where Chinese groups obtained restricted chips, the report said, citing industry experts.

The U.S. Commerce Department is discussing adding more export controls on advanced AI products to countries such as Thailand as soon as September, the report said.

Translation

根據《金融時報》報道，儘管美國實施限制，價值10億美元的英偉達AI晶片仍進入中國

（路透社）- 根據《金融時報》週四報道，在華盛頓加強晶片出口管制後的三個月內，至少價值10億美元的英偉達先進人工智慧晶片被走私至中國。

該報告引述銷售合約、公司文件以及多名直接了解相關交易的人士的話稱，在中國被禁止銷售的這家AI晶片設計公司的高階B200處理器，在蓬勃的中國的美國晶片黑市上隨處可得到。

英偉達向路透社表示，使用走私產品建造數據中心在技術和財務上都是低效的，因為該公司只為授權產品提供服務和支援。

美國商務部、白宮和泰國政府均未立即回應置評要求。路透社無法獨立核實《金融時報》的報導。

據報道，今年5月，多家中國經銷商開始向服務中國人工智能集團的數據中心供應商銷售B200處理器。

美國和中國正在爭奪人工智能和其他尖端技術領域的全球主導地位，這使得英偉達等公司在世界兩大經濟體之間著面對两難的挑戰。

英偉達上週表示，在特朗普政府撤銷對H20等晶片出口限制後，該公司將被允許恢復對華銷售。此限制措施於4月實施。

據報道，在此之前的三個月裡，來自廣東、浙江和安徽省的中國經銷商銷售了英偉達的B200處理器，以及其他受限的處理器，例如H100和H200。

報告引述業內專家的話稱，東南亞國家已成為中國企業取得受限晶片的市場。

報道稱，美國商務部正在討論最快於9月對泰國等國家加強對先進人工智能產品的出口管制。

So, Nvidia's advanced artificial intelligence chips worth at least $1 billion were smuggled to China in the three months after Washington tightened chip export controls and Southeast Asian countries had become markets where Chinese groups could obtain restricted chips. I am wondering what the US will do regarding this smuggling.

OpenAI's Altman Warns of AI-Driven "Fraud Crisis"

 Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

オープンＡＩのアルトマン氏、ＡＩによる「詐欺危機」を警告

2025.07.23 Wed posted at 15:25 JST

ニューヨーク（ＣＮＮ） 米オープンＡＩのサム・アルトマン最高経営責任者（ＣＥＯ）は２２日、人工知能（ＡＩ）によって悪意のある人物が他人になりすますことができるようになる可能性があり、世界は「詐欺危機」の瀬戸際にいるかもしれないと警告した。

アルトマン氏は、「私が恐れているのは、どうやらまだ一部の金融機関が多額の資金の移動やそのほかのことについて、音声認証を受け入れているということだ。チャレンジフレーズを言えば処理される。こんなことがまだ行われているのは常軌を逸している。ＡＩは現在、人間がパスワード以外で認証する方法のほとんどを突破できる」と語った。

こうした発言は、米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）で行われた経済・社会へのＡＩの影響に関する幅広いインタビューの一部。アルトマン氏は、米金融大手の代表を含む出席者に対し、ＡＩが経済で果たす役割についても言及した。

ホワイトハウスは近く、「ＡＩアクションプラン」を発表する見通しで、ＡＩ規制と米国のＡＩ分野での優位維持に向けた方針を示す予定だ。オープンＡＩもこの計画に対して提言を行っており、最近は米議会周辺での活動を強化している。

オープンＡＩは来年初め、首都ワシントンに新たなオフィスを開設する予定で、約３０人のスタッフが常駐する。この拠点では、政策立案者向けの新技術の紹介や、教員や官僚に対するＡＩ研修、ＡＩの経済的影響の研究、ＡＩ技術へのアクセス向上策の検討などを行う。

アルトマン氏はＡＩのリスクを認識しつつも、トランプ政権に対しては、過剰な規制は米企業の競争力を損なうとして慎重な対応を求めている。

ＡＩが詐欺行為を加速させるのではないかとの懸念はアルトマン氏だけのものではない。

米連邦捜査局（ＦＢＩ）は昨年、ＡＩによる音声や映像の「クローン詐欺」に警鐘を鳴らした。ＡＩ音声技術を使って、子どもが危険にさらされていると信じ込ませ、金銭をだまし取ろうとする事件も複数報告されている。今月には、ルビオ国務長官の声をまねるＡＩを使った人物が外相や州知事、連邦議会議員に連絡を取ったと米当局が警告した。

アルトマン氏は「重大な詐欺危機が近づいているのではないかと非常に懸念している」と述べた。「いまは音声通話だが、やがてはビデオ通話や『フェイスタイム』のように現実と見分けがつかないものになるだろう」とし、オープンＡＩがそうした技術を開発しているわけではないとしながらも、ＡＩが進化し続ける中で、世界はすぐにこの課題に直面することになるだろうとの見通しを示した。

 

雇用への影響は「誰にも分からない」

ＡＩが雇用に与える影響については、ＩＴ業界の幹部からも懸念の声があがるが、アルトマン氏は「誰にも先のことは分からない」と述べた。

アルトマン氏は、もっともらしい予測がいろいろと語られているとしたうえで、「でも、誰もそれを予測できない。私の意見では、これはあまりにも複雑なシステムで、あまりにも新しく影響力のある技術なので、予測するのは非常に難しい」と語った。

アルトマン氏は「ある種の仕事全体がなくなるだろう」とする一方で、新しい種類の仕事が出現するとも述べた。１００年先を見通した場合、未来の労働はおそらく、現在の労働者が考えるような「本当の仕事」としていないだろうと以前の予測を繰り返した。

 

Translation

OpenAI's Altman Warns of AI-Driven "Fraud Crisis"

New York (CNN) -- Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, warned on July 22 that the world might be on the brink of a "fraud crisis" due to the potential for artificial intelligence (AI) to allow malicious people to impersonate others.

Altman said, "My fear is that some financial institutions are still apparently accepting voice authentication for large transfers of funds and other transactions. You say a challenge phrase and it goes through. It's unacceptable that this thing is still being practiced. AI can defeat most of the authentication methods that humans are using other than passwords."

These remarks were part of a wide-ranging interview at the Federal Reserve Board on the impact of AI on the economy and society. Speaking to an audience that included representatives from major US financial institutions, Altman also discussed the role AI was playing in the economy.

The White House was expected to release an "AI Action Plan" soon to outline policies for regulating AI and maintaining America's dominance in the field. OpenAI had also submitted recommendations to the plan and had recently been stepping up its activities around the U.S. Congress.

OpenAI planned to open a new office in Washington, D.C. early next year with approximately 30 staff members. The office would introduce new technologies to policymakers, provide AI training to teachers and government officials, study the economic impact of AI, and consider best policies to access AI technology.

While Altman recognized the risks of AI, he urged the Trump administration to tread carefully, arguing that excessive regulation could undermine the competitiveness of U.S. companies.

Altman was not alone in his concerns that AI would accelerate fraud.

Last year, the FBI sounded the alarm about AI-based audio and video "cloning fraud". There had also been multiple reported incidents in which AI voice technology was used to trick people into believing their children were in danger and to attempt to swindle money. This month, US authorities warned that an AI impersonating Secretary of State Rubio's voice had contacted foreign ministers, state governors, and members of Congress.

Altman said, "I'm very concerned that we're on the brink of a major fraud crisis." "Today it's voice calls, but eventually things like video calls and FaceTime will become indistinguishable from the real", and while OpenAI is not developing such technology, but as AI continues to evolve, he predicted that the world will soon face this challenge

"Nobody Knows" the impact on Employment

While IT industry executives had expressed concerns about the impact of AI on employment, Altman said, "Nobody knows what the future holds."

Altman acknowledged that many plausible predictions had been made and added, "But nobody can predict it. In my opinion, it's such a complex system, and as a new and impactful technology, it's very difficult to predict."

Altman said "for some jobs they will entirely disappear," but added that new types of jobs would emerge. Looking 100 years into the future, he repeated his previous prediction that jobs in the future probably won't be what today's workers think of as "real occupation."

 So, Altman warns that the world may be on the brink of a "fraud crisis" due to the potential for artificial intelligence (AI) to allow malicious people to impersonate others. As AI continues to evolve, he predicts that the world will soon face more challenges. Apparently, some control is needed in the usage of AI.

Apple invests 74.5 billion yen in rare earth company MP Materials to strengthen U.S. supply chain

 Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

アップル、米レアアース企業ＭＰマテリアルズに７４５億円投資　米国供給網強化のため

2025.07.16 Wed posted at 06:58 JST

（ＣＮＮ） アップルは１５日、米国のレアアース（希土類）企業ＭＰマテリアルズと５億ドル（約７４５億円）の投資契約を結んだと発表した。アップルは、トランプ米大統領からｉＰｈｏｎｅ（アイフォーン）の国内生産を求める圧力にさらされている。

アップルはこの提携の一環として、ＭＰマテリアルズから直接レアアース磁石を購入することを約束した。米国サプライチェーン（供給網）の強化を図る狙い。また、カリフォルニア州に同社と新たなリサイクルラインを建設し、リサイクルされたレアアースを製品に再利用する計画だ。

この動きは、トランプ政権がテクノロジー製品生産の国内化と中国への依存度の低減を推進する中、アップルが今年に入り発表した米国事業拡大に向けた５０００億ドル投資の一環。スマートフォンからテレビ、軍用機にいたるあらゆるものに不可欠なレアアースは、米中貿易交渉において重要な交渉材料となっている。中国がレアアース加工のほぼすべてを掌握しているためだ。

テキサス州フォートワースにあるＭＰマテリアルズの工場には、アップル製品専用の磁石製造ラインが新設される。ＭＰマテリアルズによると、出荷は２０２７年に開始され、最終的には「数億台」のアップルデバイスに対応する見込み。製造された原材料は全米および世界中に届けられる。

アップルは、この拡張により多くの新規雇用が創出されるとしている。両社は米国での磁石製造を担う人材育成のための研修も提供するという。

トランプ政権は、アップルをはじめとするテクノロジー大手に対し、主に中国やインド、ベトナムにある組み立て工場やサプライチェーンに依存するのではなく、米国内で製品を生産するよう求めてきた。

アップルはｉＰｈｏｎｅの生産拠点を米国に移転する計画についてまだ話し合っておらず、実現は難しいと思われる。それは、最も収益性の高い製品であるｉＰｈｏｎｅの生産方法を根本から見直す必要があるからだ。

Translation

Apple invests 74.5 billion yen in rare earth company MP Materials to strengthen U.S. supply chain

(CNN) On the 15th, Apple announced that it had signed a $500 million investment agreement with MP Materials, a U.S. rare earth company. Apple was under pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to produce iPhones domestically.

As part of the deal, Apple was committed to buying rare earth magnets directly from MP Materials, aiming to strengthen the U.S. supply chain. The company also planned to build a new recycling line with MP Materials in California and to reuse recycled rare earth in its products.

The move was part of a $500 billion investment Apple announced earlier this year to expand its U.S. operations as the Trump administration pushed for more domestic tech production and less reliance on China. Rare earth, which was essential for everything from smartphones to televisions to military aircraft, had become a key bargaining chip in U.S.-China trade talks. China had almost total control over rare earth processing.

MP Materials' factory at Fort Worth in Texas would have a magnet production line dedicated to Apple products. MP Materials said shipments would begin in 2027 and might eventually support "hundreds of millions" of Apple devices. The raw materials produced would be delivered throughout the U.S. and around the world.

Apple said the expansion could create many new jobs. The two companies would also provide training to develop human resources for magnet manufacturing in the United States.

The Trump administration had been pushing Apple and other tech giants to make products in the U.S., rather than relying on assembly plants and supply chains that were primarily in China, India and Vietnam.

Apple had not yet discussed plans to move iPhone production to the U.S. which seemed difficult to achieve. That's because it would require a fundamental rethinking of how the company would produce the iPhone that was its most profitable product.

So, Apple announces that it has signed a $500 million investment agreement with MP Materials. Apparently, the U.S. will gradually reduce its reliance on China as far as rare earth is concerned. 

經濟學家擔憂的關稅驅動型通貨膨漲開始顯現 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

The tariff-driven inflation that economists feared begins to emerge (2/2)

The Associated Press - Christopher Rugaber and Josh Boak

Tue, July 15, 2025 at 7:53 a.m. PDT·6 min read

(continue)

The report set up a broader political battle over Trump’s tariffs, a fight that will ultimately be determined by how the U.S. public feels about their cost of living and whether the president is making good on his 2024 promise that his agenda would help the middle class.

The White House pushed back on claims that the report showed a negative impact from tariffs, since the cost of new cars were down despite the 25% tariffs on autos and 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum. The administration also noted that despite the June bump in apparel prices, clothing prices are still cheaper than they were three months ago.

“Consumer Prices LOW,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “Bring down the Fed Rate, NOW!!!”

For Democratic lawmakers, the inflation report confirmed their warnings over the past several months that Trump’s tariffs would push up inflation. Their argument on Tuesday was that the situation will likely get even more painful given the size of the tariff rates in the letters that Trump posted over the past week.

“For those saying we have not seen the impact of Trump’s tariff wars, look at today’s data. Americans continue to struggle with the costs of groceries and rent — and now prices of food and appliances are rising,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. "Families were already getting crushed, and the president’s making it worse.”

Trump has imposed sweeping duties of 10% on all imports plus 30% on goods from China. Just last week the president threatened to hit the European Union with a new 30% tariff starting Aug. 1.

He has also threatened to slap 50% duties on Brazil, which would push up the cost of orange juice and coffee. Orange prices leaped 3.5% just from May to June, and are 3.4% higher than a year ago, the government said Tuesday.

Overall, grocery prices rose 0.3% last month and are up 2.4% from a year earlier. While that is a much smaller annual increase than before the pandemic, it is slightly bigger than the pre-pandemic pace of food price increases. The Trump administration has also placed a 17% duty on Mexican tomatoes.

The acceleration in inflation could provide a respite of sorts for Fed Chair Powell, who has come under increasingly heavy fire from the White House for not cutting the benchmark interest rate.

The Fed chair has said that the duties could both push up prices and slow the economy, a tricky combination for the central bank since higher costs would typically lead the Fed to hike rates while a weaker economy often spurs it to reduce them.

Trump on Monday said that Powell has been “terrible” and “doesn’t know what the hell he’s doing.” The president added that the economy was doing well despite Powell’s refusal to reduce rates, but it would be “nice” if there were rate cuts “because people would be able to buy housing a lot easier.”

Last week, White House officials also attacked Powell for cost overruns on the years-long renovation of two Fed buildings, which are now slated to cost $2.5 billion, roughly one-third more than originally budgeted. While Trump legally can't fire Powell just because he disagrees with his interest rate decisions, the Supreme Court has signaled, he may be able to do so “for cause,” such as misconduct or mismanagement.

Some companies have said they have or plan to raise prices as a result of the tariffs, including Walmart, the world's largest retailer. Automaker Mitsubishi said last month that it was lifting prices by an average of 2.1% in response to the duties, and Nike has said it would implement “surgical” price hikes to offset tariff costs.

But many companies have been able to postpone or avoid price increases, after building up their stockpiles of goods this spring to get ahead of the duties. Other firms may have refrained from lifting prices while they wait to see whether the U.S. is able to reach trade deals with other countries that lower the duties.

Translation

經濟學家擔憂的關稅驅動型通貨膨漲開始顯現 (2/2)

（繼續）

該報告引發了一場圍繞特朗普關稅的更廣泛的政治鬥爭，這場鬥爭最終將取決於美國公眾對生活成本的感受，以及總統的計劃是否兌現了他在2024年提出的幫助中產階級的承諾。

白宮駁斥了該報告顯示關稅帶來負面影響的說法，因為儘管對汽車徵收25%的關稅，對鋼鐵和鋁徵收50%的關稅，但新車價格仍然下降。政府也指出，儘管6月服飾價格上漲，衣服價格仍比三個月前便宜。

特朗普在 Truth Social 上發文表示： “消費者價格在低水平。現在就降低美聯儲利率！！！”

對民主黨議員來說，這份通膨報告證實了他們過去幾個月發出的警告，特朗普的關稅將推高通膨。他們週二的觀點是，鑑於特朗普過去一周發布的信函中關稅稅率的規模，情況可能會變得更糟。

馬薩諸塞州民主黨參議員 Elizabeth Warren 說道: 「對於那些說我們尚未看到特朗普關稅戰影響的人，看看今天的數據。美國人仍在為食品雜貨和房租的開支苦苦掙扎 - 現在食品和家電的價格還在上漲」; 「家庭已經不堪重負，而總統的舉動更是雪上加霜」。

特朗普已對所有進口商品徵收10%的全面關稅，並對來自中國的商品徵收30%的關稅。就在上週，總統威脅將從8月1日起對歐盟徵收30%的新關稅。

他還威脅要對巴西徵收50%的關稅，這將推高橙汁和咖啡的價格。美國政府週二表示，橘子價格僅從5月到6月就上漲了3.5%，比去年同期上漲了3.4%。

整體而言，上個月食品雜貨價格上漲了0.3%，比去年同期上漲了2.4%。雖然這一年漲幅遠低於疫情前的水平，但略高於疫情前的食品價格漲幅步伐。特朗普政府也對墨西哥番茄徵收了17%的關稅。

通膨加速上漲或許能為聯儲局主席鮑威爾帶來一些喘息的機會。鮑威爾因未下調基準利率而受到白宮日益嚴厲的批評。

這位聯儲局主席表示，關稅既可能推高物價，也可能拖累經濟成長。這對央行來說是一個棘手的組合，因為成本上升通常會導致聯儲局升息，而經濟疲軟往往會促使聯儲局降息。

特朗普週一表示，鮑威爾 “糟糕透頂” ， “根本不知道他在做什麼” 。總統補充說，儘管鮑威爾拒絕降息，但經濟狀況依然良好，但如果降息就 “更好” ， “因為人們將能夠更容易買房” 。

上週，白宮官員也抨擊鮑威爾，稱其對兩座聯儲局大樓進行了多年的翻修，導致成本超支。目前，翻修工程預計耗資25億美元，比最初預算高出約三分之一。最高法院已暗示，特朗普不能僅僅因為鮑威爾不同意他的利率決定就解僱他，但他或許可以“出於合理原因” ，例如不當行為或管理不善來解僱他。

一些公司表示，由於關稅，他們已經或計劃提高價格，其中包括全球最大的零售商沃爾瑪。汽車製造商三菱上個月表示，為應對關稅，產品價格平均上調了2.1%，Nike 表示將實施「外科手術式」漲價，以抵銷關稅成本。

但許多公司在今年春季囤積了庫存以應對關稅，從而得以推遲或避免漲價。其他公司可能正在觀望美國能否與其他國家達成降低關稅的貿易協定，而暫時沒有漲價。

So, US inflation rose last month to its highest level since February as Trump’s sweeping tariffs push up the cost of a range of goods, including furniture, clothing, and large appliances. Consumer prices rose 2.7% in June from a year earlier, up from an annual increase of 2.4% in May. Apparently, worsening inflation is posing a political challenge for Trump. 

經濟學家擔憂的關稅驅動型通貨膨漲開始顯現 (1/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

The tariff-driven inflation that economists feared begins to emerge (1/2)

The Associated Press - Christopher Rugaber And Josh Boak

Tue, July 15, 2025 at 7:53 a.m. PDT·6 min read

WASHINGTON (AP) — Inflation rose last month to its highest level since February as President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs push up the cost of a range of goods, including furniture, clothing, and large appliances.

Consumer prices rose 2.7% in June from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Tuesday, up from an annual increase of 2.4% in May. On a monthly basis, prices climbed 0.3% from May to June, after rising just 0.1% the previous month.

Worsening inflation poses a political challenge for Trump, who promised during last year’s presidential campaign to immediately lower costs only to engage in a whipsawed frenzy of tariffs that have left businesses and consumers worried. Trump has already declared that the U.S. effectively has no more inflation as he has attempted to pressure Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell into cutting short-term interest rates.

Yet the bump in inflation last month makes it more likely that the central bank will keep rates unchanged at the central bank's next meeting in two weeks. Powell has said that he wants to see how the economy reacts to Trump’s duties before reducing borrowing costs.

Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core inflation increased 2.9% in June from a year earlier, up from 2.8% in May. On a monthly basis, it picked up 0.2% from May to June. Economists closely watch core prices because they typically provide a better sense of where inflation is headed.

The uptick in inflation was driven by a range of higher prices. The cost of gasoline rose 1% just from May to June, while grocery prices increased 0.3%. Appliance prices jumped for the third straight month. Toys, clothes, audio equipment, shoes, and sporting goods all got more expensive, and are all heavily imported.

“You are starting to see scattered bits of the tariff inflation regime filter in,” said Eric Winograd, chief economist at asset management firm AllianceBernstein, who added that the cost of long-lasting goods rose last month, compared with a year ago, for the first time in about three years.

Winograd also noted that housing costs, one of the biggest drivers of inflation since the pandemic, has continued to cool, which is holding down broader inflation. The cost of rent rose 3.8% in June compared with a year ago, the smallest yearly increase since late 2021.

“Were it not for the tariff uncertainty, the Fed would already be cutting rates,” Winograd said. “The question is whether there is more to come, and the Fed clearly thinks there is,” along with most economists.

Stock prices were mixed early, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes rising and the Dow Jones falling 154 points. Some investors were cheered by the fact that core prices rose less than forecast.

Some items got cheaper last month, including new and used cars, hotel rooms, and air fares. Travel prices have generally declined in recent months as fewer international tourists visit the U.S.

(to be continued)

Translation

經濟學家擔憂的關稅驅動型通貨膨漲開始顯現 (1/2)

華盛頓（美聯社）— 由於特朗普總統的全面關稅推高了包括家具、服裝和大型家電在內的一系列商品的價格，上個月通貨膨漲率升至自2月份以來的最高水平。

美國勞工部週二公佈，6月消費者物價指數年增2.7%，高於5月2.4%的年漲幅。以月計算，6月份價格較上季上漲0.3%，上個月僅上漲0.1%。

不斷惡化的通貨膨漲對特朗普構成了政治挑戰。他在去年的總統競選期間承諾立即降低成本，結果卻出乎意料地推出了一系列關稅措施，令企業和消費者感到擔憂。朗普已經宣布美國實際上不再存在通膨，並試圖向聯準會主席鮑威爾施壓，迫使其降低短期利率。

然而，上個月通膨率的飆升使得聯儲局在兩週後的下次會議上維持利率不變的可能性更大。鮑威爾表示，他希望先觀察經濟對特朗普措施的反應，然後再降低借貸成本。

剔除波動較大的食品和能源類別，6月核心通膨率年增2.9%，高於5月份的2.8%。以月計算，5月至6月核心通膨率上升了0.2%。經濟學家密切關注核心物價指數，因為它們通常能更好地反映通膨的走向。

通膨上升是由一系列價格上漲所推動的。光是從5月到6月，汽油價格就上漲了1%，而食品雜貨價格上漲了0.3%。家電價格連續第三個月上漲。玩具、服裝、音響設備、鞋子和體育用品的價格都上漲了，而且都大量進口。

AllianceBernstein 資產管理公司的首席經濟學家 Eric Winograd 表示：「你開始看到關稅通膨機制的零星影響逐漸顯現」; 他還補充說，上個月耐用品價格比上年上漲，這是大約三年來的首次。

Winograd 也指出，自疫情爆發以來，住房成本一直是通膨的最大驅動因素之一，而住房成本持續降溫，抑制了整體通膨。 6月房租年增3.8%，為2021年底以來的最小年度漲幅。

Winograd 表示：「如果不是因為關稅的不確定性，聯儲局會早就開始降息了。問題在於未來是否還會有更多降息，央行會顯然也認為會有」, 大多數經濟學家也持這種觀點。

股市早盤漲跌互現，標準普爾500指數和納斯達克指數上漲，道瓊斯指數下跌154點。核心價格漲幅低於預期，令一些投資者感到振奮。

上個月，一些商品價格下降，包括新車和二手車、酒店房租和機票。近幾個月來，由於赴美國際旅客減少，旅遊價格普遍下降。

（待續）

中國GDP增速料超目標，緩解刺激措施的壓力（2/2）

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

China’s GDP Seen Outpacing Target, Easing Stimulus Pressure (2/2)

Bloomberg News

Mon, July 14, 2025 at 4:34 a.m. PDT·6 min read

(continue)

What Bloomberg Economics Says:

The subsidies of 3,600 yuan ($503) per birth a year are likely too modest to stem a decline in new births, but can be useful in boosting sentiment and consumption. And we continue to hold the view that the program should be expanded to all children to spur spending — as the economy badly needs to revive domestic demand to counter a deteriorating external environment.

— Eric Zhu, economist.

Industry, Anti-Involution

Industrial production probably rose 5.6% in June, the slowest pace since November, according to the survey. Things could improve in the coming months after new orders returned to growth in June following two straight months of contraction, thanks to the tariff truce.

Still, humming production lines don’t always translate into stronger earnings. Excess capacity continues to drive a supply glut, weighing on prices. Profits at China’s industrial firms fell 1.1% in the first five months despite rising output, underscoring deflationary pressures and the need to tackle overcapacity.

At a high-level meeting earlier this month, leaders vowed to curb “involution,” or cutthroat competition among firms, raising hopes that Beijing is stepping up efforts to end the years-long price wars dragging on growth.

“The renewed focus on anti-involution is a step in the right direction,” Morgan Stanley economists including Robin Xing wrote in a Thursday report.

They cautioned that progress would likely be slower than a similar campaign a decade ago, given the “fundamentally more difficult” industrial and macroeconomic backdrop. The bank sees deflation persisting into next year.

Investment

Fixed-asset investment is expected to have risen 3.6% year-on-year in the first six months, slightly weaker than the pace over January to May. The property market contraction likely continued, with real estate investment estimated to have tumbled 10.9%, marking a new low since the start of the pandemic.

Speculation is growing that a high-level government meeting could be held this week to shore up the struggling property sector, fueling a rally in Chinese developer stocks.

The government has been front-loading fiscal aid already planned this year to give the economy an early boost. In the second half, the central government has a total 745 billion yuan of ultra-long special sovereign bonds to sell and provinces still have more than 2 trillion yuan in annual special bond quota available, according to earlier reports by state media.

Beijing also has room to do more. The Citi economists said authorities could revive the Pledged Supplementary Lending facility or other related policy financing tools, potentially delivering up to 500 billion yuan in quasi-fiscal stimulus by the end of December.

While China’s growth may have held up in the first half, Nomura economists including Lu Ting warned of a looming “demand cliff” over the rest of the year, driven by factors such as the reining in of industrial overcapacity, weaker export momentum and continued real estate troubles.

“Beijing needs to take bolder actions to clean up the mess in the property sector, support consumption in a more sustainable way by reforming the pension system, fix the fiscal system to better protect business owners and improve its relationships with other economies,” they wrote in a recent note.

Translation

中國GDP增速料超目標，緩解刺激措施的壓力（2/2）

（繼續）

彭博經濟評論：

每年每個新生兒 3,600元（503美元）的補貼可能過於溫和，不足以遏制新生兒數量下降，但有助於提振情緒和消費。我們仍然認為，該計劃應該擴大到所有兒童，以刺激消費 - 因為中國經濟迫切需要重振內需，以應對不斷惡化的外部環境。

——經濟學家 Eric Zhu

工業，反內捲

調查顯示，6月工業生產可能成長5.6%，為11月以來的最低成長速度。由於關稅休戰，新訂單在連續兩個月萎縮後，6月將恢復成長，未來幾個月情況可能會有所改善。

然而，生產線的高效運作並不一定意味著更高的獲利。產能過剩持續導致供應過剩，對價格構成壓力。儘管產量有所成長，但中國工業企業在前五個月獲利下降了1.1%，凸顯了通貨緊縮壓力和化解產能過剩的必要性。

在本月初的一次高層會議上，領導人誓言要遏制 “內捲” ， 即企業間的惡性競爭，這讓人們燃起了希望，認為北京方面正在加大力度，結束多年來拖累經濟增長的價格戰。

摩根士丹利經濟學家包括 Robin Xing 在周四的一份報告中寫道： “重新關注 ‘內捲’是朝著正確方向邁出的一步。”

他們警告稱，在「根本上更加困難」的工業和宏觀經濟背景之下，這次行動的進展可能比十年前的類似行動要慢。摩根士丹利預計通貨緊縮將持續到明年。

 

投資

預計上半年固定資產投資年增 3.6%，略低於1-5月增速。房地產市場萎縮可能持續，房地產投資估計下降10.9%，創下疫情爆發以來的新低。

越來越多的猜測稱，本周可能會舉行一次高層政府會議，以提振陷入困境的房地產行業，這推動了中國開發商股價的上漲。

政府一直提前實施今年已規劃的財政援助措施，以提振經濟。根據官方媒體先前報道，下半年中央政府將發行總額為 7,450億元人民幣的超長期特別主權債券，各省仍有超過2兆元人民幣的年度特別債券額度可用。

北京方面也仍有進一步行動的空間。花旗經濟學家表示，當局可能會重啟抵押貸款補充貸款安排（PLL）或其他相關政策性融資工具，到12月底可能提供高達 5,000億元人民幣的準財政刺激措施。

儘管中國經濟在上半年可能保持成長，但包括 Lu Ting 在內的野村經濟學家警告稱，受工業產能過剩控制、出口勢頭減弱以及房地產市場持續低迷等因素的影響，今年剩餘時間可能出現「需求懸崖」。

他們在最近的一份報告中寫道： “北京方面需要採取更大膽的措施，清理房地產行業的亂象，通過改革養老金制度以更可持續的方式支持消費，完善財政體係以更好地保護企業企業所有者，並改善與其他經濟體的關係。”

              So, China’s economy is likely to expand just above the government’s full-year growth target in the second quarter, easing pressure on Beijing to roll out additional stimulus for now. Some economists have cautioned that the road to an economic recovery would likely be slower than a similar campaign initiated a decade ago.  Apparently, Beijing needs to take bolder actions to clean up the property sector, to  reform the pension system, to fix the fiscal system to better protect business owners,  and to improve its relationships with other economies.

Note:

1.Quasi-fiscal stimulus (準財政刺激) refers to the use of non-traditional fiscal policy tools, such as loans, grants or other similar measures by the government or related institutions to promote economic growth or stabilize the market, rather than direct public spending. This approach is usually expected to be used to support specific sectors or economic activities. (ChatGPT)

2. In economics, a demand cliff (需求懸崖)refers to a situation when demand suddenly drops sharply, often due to market changes or reduced consumer confidence, which can affect business decisions when planning production or sales strategies. (ChatGPT)

中國GDP增速料超預期，緩解刺激措施的壓力（1/2)

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

China’s GDP Seen Outpacing Target, Easing Stimulus Pressure (1/2)

Bloomberg News

Mon, July 14, 2025 at 4:34 a.m. PDT·6 min read

(Bloomberg) -- China’s economy likely expanded just above the government’s full-year growth target in the second quarter, easing pressure on Beijing to roll out additional stimulus in the near term.

Official figures due Tuesday are expected to show gross domestic product rose 5.1% year-on-year in the quarter ended June, according to a Bloomberg survey. While slower than the first quarter, it would still put first-half growth at 5.3%, comfortably above Beijing’s annual target of around 5%, the survey shows.

The economy got a boost from strong exports, helped by a trade truce with the US in mid-May that lowered tariffs on Chinese goods to around 55% from a peak of 145%, as well as ongoing fiscal support aimed at shoring up domestic demand.

That momentum has many economists expecting Beijing to hold off on further stimulus, at least for now, to preserve policy space in case tensions with Washington flare up again once the temporary deal expires in mid-August.

“We see limited urgency for policymakers to strike the policy put soon,” Citigroup Inc. economists including Xiangrong Yu wrote in a note Thursday.

Data released on Monday showed exports rising 5.8% in June, accelerating for the first time since March and beating economists’ expectations.

An upcoming July meeting of the Communist Party’s Politburo, which includes 24 of the country’s most senior officials led by President Xi Jinping, could “further confirm a wait-and-see policy mode, while keeping the door open for incremental small-scale support,” the Citi economists said.

The People’s Bank of China has indicated it’s taking a less dovish stance on easing. In a statement after its quarterly monetary policy committee meeting last month, the central bank dropped its earlier pledge to cut interest rates and inject long-term liquidity in a timely manner, saying instead it would “calibrate the intensity and pace of policy implementation” with flexibility.

The central bank will closely monitor the impact of measures already implemented and pace the roll-out of further policies, Zou Lan, a deputy governor of the PBOC, said on Monday.

That said, the boost from front-loading of exports and earlier fiscal support may fade in the second half, potentially increasing the need for more policy action later this year. Economists from Citi and Nomura Holdings Inc. expect a 10-basis-point cut to the policy rate and a 50-basis-point reduction in banks’ reserve requirement ratios by year-end.

Here’s a preview of other key economic indicators set for release by the National Bureau of Statistics at 10 a.m. Beijing time Tuesday.

Consumption

Retail sales growth is expected to have slowed to 5.3% in June year-on-year from 6.4% in May, bringing first-half expansion to around 5%.

Sales might have taken a hit in June as some provinces suspended government subsidies for consumer purchases of items like smartphones, home appliances and cars. The early launch of JD.com’s mid-year shopping festival in mid-May — weeks earlier than last year — could have pulled spending forward, weighing on last month’s figures.

China earmarked 300 billion yuan ($41.8 billion) from the issuance of ultra-long special sovereign bonds to fund consumer subsidies this year. Officials said more than half the funds were deployed in the first half, with the remainder to be allocated in July and October. Weekly spending plans will be made with an aim to keep subsidies available to consumers through year-end.

The threat of higher US tariffs on Chinese goods in the coming months has prompted some economists to urge Beijing to roll out more consumer-focused support to cushion the blow to growth. Academics including PBOC adviser Huang Yiping said authorities should add as much as 1.5 trillion yuan in new stimulus over 12 months to help offset the potential impact of US levies.

The government is planning to offer nationwide childcare subsidies, which is also part of broader efforts to boost birth rates, Bloomberg previously reported.

(to be continued)

Translation

中國GDP增速料超預期，緩解刺激措施的壓力（1/2)

（彭博）— 中國經濟第二季的成長可能略高於政府設定的全年成長目標，這減輕了中國政府近期推出額外刺激措施的壓力。

彭博調查顯示，預計週二公佈的官方數據顯示，截至6月的季度GDP年增5.1%。調查顯示，儘管成長率低於第一季，但仍將上半年GDP成長率推高至5.3%，遠高於北京設定的約5%的年度目標。

中國經濟受強勁的出口推動，及受惠於5月中旬中美貿易休戰將中國商品的關稅從145%的高峰降至55%左右，及旨在持續提振國內需求的財政支持措施。

這種勢頭促使許多經濟學家預計，北京方面至少目前將暫緩推出進一步的刺激措施，以保留政策空間，以防8月中旬臨時協議到期後, 中美關係再次緊張。

花旗集團經濟學家包括 Xiangrong Yu 在周四的一份報告中寫道： “我們認為政策制定者要盡快推出政策的緊迫性有限。”

週一公佈的數據顯示，6月出口成長5.8%，為3月以來首次加速，且超出了經濟學家的預期。

花旗經濟學家表示，即將於7月舉行的中共中央政治局會議（由國家主席習近平領導的24名中國最高官員組成）可能「進一步確認採取觀望政策模式，同時為逐步推出小規模支持措施敞開大門」。

中國人民銀行已表示，在寬鬆政策上的立場將有所緩和。上個月，央行貨幣政策委員會季度例會後發表聲明，宣布放棄先前承諾的適時降息和注入長期流動性，轉而表示將靈活地「掌握政策實施的力度和節奏」。

中國人民銀行副行長 Zou Lan 週一表示，央行將密切監測已實施措施的影響，並逐步推出新的政策。

儘管如此，前期出口刺激及之前的財政支持措施帶來的提振作用可能會在下半年消退，這或許會增加今年稍後採取更多政策行動的必要性。花旗銀行和野村控股公司的經濟學家預計，到年底，政策利率將下調10個基點，銀行存款準備率將下調50個基點。

以下是國家統計局於週二北京時間上午10點發佈的其他主要經濟指標的預覽。

消費

預計6月零售額年增率將從5月的6.4%放緩至5.3%，使上半年的增幅降至5%左右。

由於一些省份暫停了對智慧型手機、家電和汽車等消費品的政府補貼，6月的銷售額可能受到衝擊。京東年中購物節於5月中旬提前推出，比去年提前了幾週，這可能提前拉動了消費支出，從而對上月的數據造成了壓力。

中國已發行3,000億元人民幣（約418億美元）超長期特別主權債券，用於今年的消費補貼。官員表示，超過一半的資金已在上半年到位，其餘資金將在7月和10月到位。政府將制定每週的支出計劃，以確保補貼資金能持續發放到年底。

未來幾個月美國可能會對中國商品加徵關稅，促使一些經濟學家敦促北京推出更多以消費者為中心的支持措施，以緩解經濟成長所受到的衝擊。包括中國人民銀行顧問 Huang Yiping 在內的學者表示，當局應新增高達1.5兆元為期12個月的刺激措施，以協助抵銷美國關稅的潛在影響。

根據彭博社先前報道，政府計劃在全國範圍內提供兒童保育補貼，這也是提高生育率的更廣泛舉措的一部分。

（待續）