中國戰機幾乎抹去了台灣海峽的分界線，創造了危險的新常態 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

China's warplanes have all but erased the dividing line in the Taiwan Strait, creating a dangerous new normal (2/2)

Business Insider - Chris Panella

Thu, October 31, 2024 at 12:56 a.m. GMT+8·6 min read

(continue)

Chinese incursions are tiring out Taiwan's forces

The near-daily ADIZ incursions aren't just changing the status quo in the area; they're also exhausting Taiwan's military.

In October 2020, then-Taiwanese Minister of National Defense Yen Teh-fa said Taipei's air force and navy spent almost $1 billion monitoring Chinese sorties. Since then, Taiwan has adjusted its responses to the ADIZ violations in order to reserve resources, but it is still taxing.

In this tough situation, "the concern is the continued degradation of Taiwan's military assets and the draining of Taiwan's military personnel," Shattuck said, explaining that China "exploits" Taiwan's military capabilities "by flooding the field and forcing Taiwan to choose what things deserve a response."

That degradation could ultimately leave Taiwan's military weakened should one of China's large-scale drills suddenly become the real deal, and with US aid to Taiwan "long-delayed and overdue," Shattuck said, it could hamper Taiwan's readiness.

"The median line of the Taiwan Strait—a de facto boundary that created some semblance of cross-Strait stability—is no more" and "Taiwan cannot push back on all fronts against these PRC incursions," Lewis and Shattuck wrote recently.

This is an attritional fight, they said, arguing that while Chinese military activities around Taiwan "have become normalized and are a part of the ever-deteriorating status quo in the Taiwan Strait," Taipei and Washington still have cards to play.

Taiwan has spent years navigating tricky relations with Beijing, which is opposed to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and has labeled Lai a "separatist."

During his inauguration speech, Lai promised to uphold Taiwanese democracy as a global beacon, calling on China to cease its intimidation against Taiwan. The speech further inflamed relations, and "Joint Sword 2024-A" shortly followed. Lai toned down rhetoric during his National Day speech earlier this month, demonstrating restraint in calls for peace and understanding.

"Lai's National Day speech indicates that Taipei is attempting to find ways to offer an olive branch to China while maintaining its assertions of Taiwan's de facto sovereignty," Amanda Hsiao, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for China, told BI. But China's reaction, "Joint Sword 2024-B," was intense and sent a message.

Regardless of what Lai says or how he approaches relations, Shattuck said, China doesn't trust him.

"It no longer matters what sorts of olive branches a DPP president may extend because Beijing will not accept them," he said, explaining that "Beijing is attempting to accelerate its squeezing of Taiwan's own sovereign territory." That has implications for Taiwan and its international partners.

As the Chinese military continues its incursions in Taiwan's ADIZ, Washington and its allies "need to remain vigilant in protesting these activities so that it is clear that military coercion of Taiwan is unacceptable," Shattuck said.

"It is unrealistic to argue that Taiwan or the United States will be able to stop the PRC aerial and maritime incursions around Taiwan," he and Lewis wrote, but there are options. "Washington," they said, "should work to elevate Taiwan's ability to track the situation around its territory and provide it with the necessary resources to push back as needed."

Translation

中國戰機幾乎抹去了台灣海峽的分界線，創造了危險的新常態 (2/2)

（繼續）

中國的闖入使台灣軍隊疲憊不堪

幾乎每天都有的防空識別區被闖入不僅改變了該地區的現狀，也令到台灣的軍隊疲憊。

2020 年 10 月，時任台灣國防部長Yen Teh-fa 表示，台北空軍和海軍花了近 10 億美元監視中國的出動。此後，台灣調整了違反防空識別區的應對措施，以節省資源，但仍然費力。

Shattuck說，在這種艱難的局勢下，「令人擔憂的是台灣軍事資產的持續退化和台灣軍事人員的流失」。又解釋說中國 “活靈針對” 台灣的軍事能力， “透過淹沒戰場迫使台灣選擇什么事情應該去作出反應” 。

Shattuck表示，如果中國的一項大規模演習突然成為真的進攻，這種退化最終可能會削弱台灣的軍事實力，而美國對台灣的援助是 “長時間被延遲、逾期” ，這可能會阻礙台灣的備戰工作。

 Lewis 和 Shattuck最近寫道： “台灣海峽的中線  -  一條在某種程度上創造了兩岸穩定的邊界 - 事實上已不復存在” ， “台灣無法在所有戰線上反擊這些中國的闖入” 。

他們表示，這是一場消耗戰，並認為雖然中國在台灣週邊的軍事活動“已經常恒化，並且是台海現狀不斷惡化的一部分”，但台北和華盛頓仍然有牌可打。

台灣多年來一直在處理與北京的棘手關係，北京反對執政的民進黨，並給Lai貼上了「分離主義分子」的標籤。

Lai 在就職演說中承諾維護台灣民主作為全球燈塔，呼籲中國停止對台灣的恐嚇。該演講進一步激化了關係，不久之後就出現了「聯合利劍2024-A」。Lai在本月稍早的國慶演講中緩和了言辭，表現出克制地呼籲和平與理解。

危機組織 中國區高級分析師 Amanda Hsiao 告訴BI，“Lai的國慶演講表明，台北正試圖尋找方法向中國伸出橄欖枝，同時維持其對台灣事實上主權的主張。”但中國的「聯合利劍2024-B」反應強烈，並傳遞了一個訊息。

Shattuck說，無論Lai說什麼或他如何處理關係，中國都不信任他。

他說：“民進黨主席可能會伸出什麼樣的橄欖枝已經不再重要，因為北京不會接受它們。”他解釋說，“北京正在試圖加速擠壓台灣自己的主權領土。”這對台灣及其國際夥伴有影響。

Shattuck說，隨著中國軍隊繼續入侵台灣防空識別區，華盛頓及其盟友「需要保持警惕，抗議這些活動，以表明對台灣的軍事脅迫是不可接受的」。

他和Lewis寫道：「認為台灣或美國能夠阻止中國對台灣週邊地區的空中和海上入侵是不切實際的」, 但還是有選擇的。他們表示，「華盛頓應該努力提高台灣追蹤其領土週邊局勢的能力，並為其提供必要的資源，在有需要時進行反擊」。

              So, China’s warplanes are pressuring Taiwan and have all but eliminated an important dividing line, with near-daily incursions creating a dangerous new normal. According to some experts, it is unrealistic to argue that Taiwan or the United States will be able to stop the PRC aerial and maritime incursions around Taiwan. The median line of the Taiwan Strait—a de facto boundary that created some semblance of cross-Strait stability does not exist anymore. I think the chance for a conflict to occur around the median line has increased.

Jiangsu Province of China : a man with knife caused 8 dead 17 injured at school, the man was arrested

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

中国 江蘇省 学校で刃物を持った男 8人死亡 17人けが 男は拘束

2024年11月17日 6時00分

中国東部の江蘇省にある職業教育を行う学校で16日、刃物を持った男に襲われて8人が死亡、17人がけがをしました。中国では公共の場所での殺傷事件などが後を絶たず、当局は社会に動揺が広がらないよう神経をとがらせています。

現地の警察の発表によりますと、江蘇省無錫にある職業教育を行う学校で現地時間の16日午後6時半ごろ、刃物を持った男に襲われて、8人が死亡、17人がけがをする事件が起きました。

警察は21歳の容疑者の男をその場で拘束したということです。

警察の初期段階の捜査によりますと、男はこの学校に通っていましたが、試験で不合格となり卒業証書を得られなかったことや、実習での報酬に対する不満をはらそうと犯行に及んだとみられるということです。

上海にある日本総領事館によりますと、被害者の中に日本人はいないということです。

事件が起きた学校のホームページによりますと、この学校は陶磁器づくりを教える職業教育の施設として1933年に創設され、今では、デザインや経済など幅広い学科が開設されているということです。

中国では、今月11日にも南部の広東省珠海で暴走した車が大勢の人をはね、35人が死亡する事件が起きるなど、人が集まる公共の場所での殺傷事件などが後を絶たず、当局は社会の動揺が広がらないよう神経をとがらせています。

Translation

Jiangsu Province of China:  a man with knife caused 8 dead 17 injured at school, the man was arrested

On the 16th, a man with a knife attacked a vocational school in Jiangsu Province in eastern China, killing 8 people and injuring 17. In China, there had been a series of murders and injuries in public places, and authorities were on high alert to prevent unrest from spreading to society.

According to local police, a man with a knife attacked a vocational school in Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, at around 6:30 pm local time on the 16th, killing 8 people and injuring 17.

Police had arrested a 21-year-old suspect on the spot.

According to the police's initial investigation, the man attended the school, but was believed to have committed the crime in order to vent his dissatisfaction with failing the exam and not receiving a graduation certificate, as well as the remuneration for training.

According to the Japanese Consulate-General in Shanghai, there were no Japanese among the victims.

According to the website of the school where the incident occurred, the school was founded in 1933 as a vocational education facility to teach ceramic making, and now offered a wide range of subjects including design and economics.

In China, there had been a series of murders and injuries in public places, including the incident on the 11th of this month in Zhuhai, Guangdong Province in the south, when an out-of-control car hit a crowd of people, killing 35 people, and authorities were on high alert to prevent social unrest from spreading.

              So, following the social violence happened on the 11th of this month in Guangdong Province that caused the death of 35 people, this time a man with a knife attacked a vocational school in Jiangsu Province, killing 8 people and injuring 17. I am wondering what action will the government take to suppress the spread of social violence.

中國體育場發生汽車亂撞事件 數十人死亡

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Dozens killed in car rampage through Chinese stadium

Stephen McDonell - BBC China correspondent

13 November 2024

At least 35 people have been killed in a car attack in southern China, believed to be the deadliest known act of public violence in the country in decades.

Police say a man crashed his car into a stadium in Zhuhai on Monday where he ran down groups of people exercising on the sports track.

The "serious and vicious attack" also injured 45 people - among them elderly and children, local media report.

Police say the 62-year-old driver, identified as a Mr Fan, appeared to have acted out of unhappiness over a divorce settlement.

He was arrested as he tried to flee the Zhuhai Sports Center and is in a coma due to self-inflicted wounds, police said in a statement.

The incident has sparked a national outcry in China, where President Xi Jinping vowed "severe punishment" for the perpetrator, and called for "all-out efforts" to treat the injured.

When horror hits China, the first instinct is shut it down

Details of those who were killed have not been disclosed by authorities yet, but mourners and members of the public had begun laying flowers and other tributes outside the stadium on Tuesday.

The venue - featuring a running track loop - had been a popular exercise ground for locals. Witnesses told Chinese media it appeared Mr Fan had deliberately run people down.

One man named Mr Chen told Caixin news magazine he and his walking group had just completed a lap of the stadium when a car charged towards them at high speed, "knocking down many people".

Another person at the scene told Caixin: "It drove in a loop and people were hurt in all areas of the running track."

According to local police, who released a statement on Tuesday, they said their initial investigations suggested Mr Fan's actions were triggered by a property dispute following his divorce. He is still in a coma and so has not been questioned, police said.

The attack may be the deadliest act of random public violence in China in recent decades. A number have been reported this year including a mass stabbing and firearms attack in Shandong in February which killed at least 21 people. That incident was heavily censored by Chinese authorities.

Reports of Monday's attack were already being restricted online on Tuesday - with several videos taken by witnesses at the scene removed from Chinese social media platforms.

But some footage still circulating online showed dozens of people lying on the ground and being attended to by paramedics and bystanders.

In China it is common for censors to quickly take down social media videos which are linked to high-profile incidences of crime.

BBC journalists reporting from the stadium at Zhuhai on Tuesday were also harassed and told to stop filming.

China has seen a spate of violent attacks on members of the public in recent months that have been reported in local media to varying degrees.

In October, a knife attack at a top school in Beijing injured five people, while in September, a man went on a stabbing spree at a supermarket in Shanghai, killing three people and injuring several others.

Also in September, a 10-year-old Japanese student died a day after he was stabbed near his school in southern China.

Following Monday's car attack, Japan's embassy warned its nationals living in the country to avoid speaking Japanese loudly in public.

The incident in Zhuhai has also taken place during heightened security in the city, which is hosting a major military airshow this week. The attack on Monday night took place 40km (24 miles) from where the high-profile Airshow China kicked off on Tuesday.

China is showcasing its newest warplanes and attack drones at the show, which top Russian defence official and former defence minister Sergei Shoigu is expected to attend.

Several entrances and exits to the sports centre were closed during the airshow to facilitate "control", the centre's management said on Tuesday.

Translation

中國體育場發生汽車亂撞事件 數十人死亡

中國南方發生的一宗汽車襲擊事件已造成至少 35 人死亡，相信這是該國數十年來已知的最致命的公共暴力行為。

警方稱，週一，一名男子將汽車撞入珠海的一座體育場，撞倒了一群在跑道上運動的人。

據當地媒體報道，這宗「嚴重而惡毒的襲擊」還造成 45 人受傷，其中包括老人和兒童。

警方表示，這名 62 歲的司機Fan先生似乎是因為對離婚協議感到不滿而採取了這項行動。

警方在聲明中稱，他在試圖逃離珠海體育中心時被捕，由於自殘，目前處於昏迷狀態。

該事件在中國引發全國強烈抗議，國家主席習近平誓言「嚴懲」肇事者，並呼籲「全力以赴」救治傷者。

當恐怖襲擊中國時，第一個反應是刪除它

當局尚未透露遇難者的詳細信息，但哀悼者和公眾週二開始在體育場外獻花和其他悼念活動。

體育場設有環形跑道，曾是當地人喜愛的運動場地。目擊者告訴中國媒體，Fan先生似乎是故意撞人的。

一位名叫Chen先生的男子告訴Caixin新聞雜誌，他和他的步行小組剛剛繞完體育場一圈，一輛汽車高速沖向他們，「撞倒了很多人」。

另一位現場人士告訴Caixin：“車子打圈行駛，跑道上到處都有人受傷。”

當地警方週二發表聲明稱，初步調查顯示Fan先生的行為是由離婚後的財產糾紛引發的。警方稱，他仍處於昏迷狀態，因此沒有接受訊問。

這次攻擊可能是中國近幾十年來最致命的隨機公共暴力行為。今年已通報了多宗事件，包括 2 月在山東省發生的大規模持刀持槍攻擊事件，造成至少 21 人死亡。該事件受到中國當局的嚴格訊息審查。

週二，有關週一襲擊事件的報告已經在網路上受到限制 - 現場目擊者拍攝的幾段影片從中國社交媒體平台上被刪除。

但網路上仍在流傳的一些影片顯示，數十人躺在地上，並得到護理人員和旁觀者的照顧。

在中國，審查機構通常會迅速刪除那些會引人注目的犯罪事件的社群媒體影片。

週二在珠海體育場進行報道的英國廣播公司記者也遭到騷擾並被告知停止拍攝。

近幾個月來，中國發生了多宗針對公眾的暴力攻擊事件，當地媒體都有不同程度的通報。

10月，北京一所頂尖學校發生持刀攻擊事件，造成5人受傷；9月，一名男子在上海一家超市持刀行兇，造成3人死亡、數人受傷。

同樣在 9 月，一名 10 歲的日本學生在中國南部他的學校附近被刺傷，一天後死亡。

週一發生汽車攻擊事件後，日本大使館警告居住在該國的國民避免在公共場合大聲說日語。

珠海的事件也發生在該市加強安全防範期間，該市本週將舉辦一場大型軍事航展。週一晚上的襲擊發生在距週二備受矚目的中國航展開幕地點 40 公里（24 英里）。

中國將在此次展會上展示最新的戰機和攻擊無人機，俄羅斯國防高級官員、前國防部長·紹伊古預計將出席。

該中心管理層週二表示，航展期間該體育中心的多個出入口被關閉，以方便「控制」。

So, some 35 people have been killed in a car attack in southern China. China has seen a spate of violent attacks on members of the public in recent months. Last month, a knife attack at a top school in Beijing injured five people, while in September, a man went on a stabbing spree at a supermarket in Shanghai, killing three people and injuring several others. Also in September, a 10-year-old Japanese student died a day after he was stabbed near his school in southern China. I am wondering why so much social violence has happened in China in the past months.

中國戰機幾乎抹去了台灣海峽的分界線，創造了危險的新常態 (1/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

China's warplanes have all but erased the dividing line in the Taiwan Strait, creating a dangerous new normal (1/2)

Business Insider - Chris Panella

Thu, October 31, 2024 at 12:56 a.m. GMT+8·6 min read

China's warplanes are pressuring Taiwan and have all but eliminated an important dividing line, with near-daily incursions creating a dangerous new normal.

Since 2020, Taiwan has released regular, almost daily updates on incursions in its air defense identification zone by Chinese military aircraft. It has also documented continuous Chinese efforts to degrade the Taiwan Strait median line established in 1955.

Researchers Thomas J. Shattuck, a non-resident fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Fellow, and Benjamin Lewis, co-founder of the PLATracker organization, have tracked increasingly bold Chinese behavior. A review of data from Taiwan revealed that ADIZ incursions over the past four years have shown a growing rejection of the unofficial dividing line put in place for deconfliction.

China's military incursions into Taiwan's ADIZ and its crossings of the median line in the Taiwan Strait have skyrocketed, with the ADIZ incursions climbing from an average of 2.56 aircraft per day four years ago to 11.63 now.

A nation's ADIZ extends far beyond its territorial airspace, but the area is closely monitored for national security purposes. When Chinese aircraft enter Taiwan's de facto ADIZ, it dispatches combat air patrol (CAP) aircraft in response.

In 2021, the Chinese military flew 972 aircraft into Taiwan's ADIZ, and that number nearly doubled in 2022. 1,703 aircraft were recorded in 2023. And 2024 looks to have a record-breaking number, with over 2,000 aircraft documented as of September. They're also no longer limited to a corner of the ADIZ.

Crossings of the median line have become increasingly common since August 2022, when then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi controversially visited Taiwan, and China has been steadily erasing it altogether. In a recent drill surrounding Taiwan, 111 Chinese warplanes crossed it, marking a single-day high. A few years ago, Taiwan might see hundreds cross the line but over months.

"We've become desensitized to high numbers of the military aircraft flying across the median line of the Taiwan Strait," Shattuck told Business Insider. "Five years ago, that was unheard of. Now, it's just another Thursday."

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and hasn't ruled out using its growing military to achieve unification, raising concerns in Taipei, the US, and other Western nations that China could one day enact a blockade or full-scale invasion of Taiwan to force it to give in to Beijing's authority.

Beijing's tactics run the gamut of intimidation and coercion, including political and economic pressure and massive military exercises aimed at forcing the Taiwanese people to reject independence.

Recently, two joint-force drills, "Joint Sword 2024-A" and "Joint Sword 2024-B," saw the Chinese People's Liberation Army effectively surround Taiwan, simulating how it could blockade key ports and areas, assault maritime and ground targets, and seize territory.

During "Joint Sword 2024-B," Taiwan's defense ministry said that a record number of Chinese warplanes, over 150, flew into its ADIZ in one day. In response, Taiwan's new president, Lai Ching-te, said China aims "to undermine stability and the status quo."

(to be continued)

Translation

中國戰機幾乎抹去了台灣海峽的分界線，創造了危險的新常態 (1/2)

中國的戰機正在向台灣施壓，幾乎消除了一條重要的分界線，幾乎每天都有入侵，創造了一種危險的新常態。

自2020年以來，台灣幾乎每天都會定期發布有關中國軍機入侵其防空識別區的最新消息。它也記錄了中國不斷努力削弱 1955 年設立的台灣海峽中線。

外交政策研究所 的非常駐研究員 Thomas J. Shattuck 以及 PLATracker 組織的聯合創始人 Benjamin Lewis 一直在追蹤中國日益大膽的行為。對台灣數據的審查顯示，過去四年的防空識別區入侵表明，越來越多的人無視為消除衝突而設立的非正式分界線。

中國對台灣防空識別區(ADIZ)和穿越台灣海峽中線的軍事入侵數量激增，入侵防空識別區的飛機數量從四年前的平均每天2.56架次上升到現在的11.63架次。

一個國家的防空識別區遠遠超出其領空，但出於國家安全目的，該地區受到密切監視。當中國飛機進入台灣實際上的防空辨識區時，它會派遣戰鬥空中巡邏機（CAP）作為回應。

2021 年，中國軍方有972 架飛機進入台灣防空識別區，這一數字在2022 年幾乎翻了一番。2023年記錄了1,703架飛機。 2024年的數字似乎將破紀錄，截至9月記錄的飛機數量超過2,000架。 飛機都不再局限於ADIZ的某個角落。

自 2022 年 8 月時任眾議院議長Nancy Pelosi頗具爭議地訪問台灣以來，跨越中線的現象變得越來越普遍，而中國一直在穩步地完全消除這中線這。在最近一次圍繞台灣的演習中，有 111 架中國戰機飛越中線，創下單日最高紀錄。幾年前，要在幾個月的時間台灣才看到有超過百次越過這條線。

Shattuck對《商業內幕》表示： “我們對飛越台灣海峽中線的大量軍用飛機已經變得麻木了。” “五年前，這是聞所未聞的。現在，偶然的事變成經常發生。”

中國聲稱台灣是它的領土，並且不排除利用其不斷壯大的軍事力量實現統一，這引起了台北、美國和其他西方國家的擔憂，他們擔心中國有一天可能對台灣實施封鎖或全面入侵，以迫使台灣向北京政權屈服。

北京的策略範圍是恐嚇和脅迫，包括政治和經濟壓力以及大規模軍事演習, 旨在迫使台灣人民拒絕獨立。

近日，「聯合利劍2024-A」和「聯合利劍2024-B」兩次聯演，中國人民解放軍實質上包圍台灣，模擬封鎖重點港口和地區、攻擊海上和地面目標、並奪取領土。

台灣國防部在「聯合利劍2024-B」期間表示，一天之內有超過150架中國戰機飛入其防空辨識區，數量創歷史新高。作為回應，台灣新任總統賴清德表示，中國的目的是「破壞穩定和現狀」。

（待續）

Note:

1. The Foreign Policy Research Institute is an American think tank based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, that conducts research on geopolitics, international relations, and international security in the various regions of the world and on ethnic conflict, U.S. national security, terrorism, and on think tanks themselves. (Wikipedia)

2. Thomas J. Shattuck is a Senior Program Manager at the University of Pennsylvania’s Perry World House. He is a 2024-25 non-resident WSD-Handa Fellow at the Pacific Forum and a 2024-25 non-resident Research Fellow at the Modern War Institute at West Point. His research includes cross-Strait relations, Taiwanese and Chinese domestic and foreign affairs. Shattuck is a Non-Resident Research Fellow at the Global Taiwan Institute, on top of being a Non-Resident Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. (https://thomas-shattuck.com/)

3. The Taiwan Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) (臺灣防空識別區) is an air defense identification zone of the Republic of China, which covers Taiwan Province, its surrounds, and a large portion of the Chinese mainland. A theoretical "median line" was defined in 1955 one year after the zone was established. (Wikipedia)

三星突然損失 1,220 億美元，顯示了對AI睡着的代價

Recently Yahoo New on-line picked up the following:

Samsung’s sudden $122 billion wipeout shows the cost of sleeping on AI

Youkyung Lee and Yoolim Lee

Updated Wed, October 30, 2024 at 10:35 p.m. GMT+8·4 min read

(Bloomberg) — Just a few months ago, Samsung Electronics Co. (SSNLF, 005930.KS) looked primed to benefit from the global AI boom: profits were surging and its stock was rising toward an all-time high.

Now, South Korea’s biggest company has become a stark example of how quickly fortunes can turn in an industry where the spoils go to those who maintain a technological edge.

As concerns mount that the company is losing out to smaller rival SK Hynix Inc. (000660.KS, HXSCL) in AI memory and failing to gain on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM, 2330.TW) in outsourced chipmaking, Samsung shares have tumbled 32% from this year’s peak on July 9. The company has lost $122 billion of market value in that span, more than any other chipmaker worldwide.

Samsung has promised an overhaul to regain competitiveness, but international money managers including Pictet Asset Management Ltd. and Janus Henderson Investors SP Ltd. are unconvinced a turnaround is imminent. Overseas investors have sold about $10.7 billion worth of the South Korean company’s shares on a net basis since the end of July.

“We have more than halved our position in Samsung over the last few months — it was the largest position in our strategy in July,” said Sat Duhra, a portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors SP in Singapore. While Duhra said the shares have fallen to an attractive valuation, he has “no intention” to buy them for now.

Fading fast

Smartphones and other consumer electronics still account for the biggest share of Samsung’s sales, but semiconductors have been contributing the most profit in recent years. With the recent crisis in its chip business, the Suwon-based company issued a rare apology to investors earlier this month for disappointing results.

The company’s story highlights how AI is the key factor minting winners and losers in today’s chip sector. While foreign investors have led an exodus from Samsung, Nvidia Corp. has become one of the world’s largest companies. TSMC, the key maker of chips designed by Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple Inc. (AAPL), has added over $330 billion in market value this year.

Things went south for Samsung quickly. Its stock flirted with a record high after it posted a 15-fold surge in operating profit for the June quarter. As recently as August, investors were optimistic it could win more business supplying Nvidia with high-bandwidth memory to work alongside AI processors.

That hope has been snuffed out with the company admitting delays with its latest-generation HBM chips in early October, soon after SK Hynix said it had begun volume production. Meanwhile, US rival Micron Technology Inc. is stepping up efforts in HBM as well, and has reported strong demand for its offerings.

Samsung is “losing its technology leadership in the semiconductor business,” said Young Jae Lee, London-based senior investment manager of the global emerging markets high-dividend team at Pictet Asset Management. “Technology leadership is difficult to regain in the short term by nature,” he said, adding that the firm has been reducing its Samsung holding.

Management Woes

Beyond its lag in AI memory, Samsung has struggled with a costly, yearslong effort to close the gap with TSMC in foundry business. Like Intel Corp. — which has run into similar difficulty with plans to expand its outsourced chipmaking operations — the Korean firm is now moving to cut jobs and make other efforts to stop the bleeding.

Samsung is holding a conference call on Thursday after it releases detailed third-quarter earnings. Among points to watch is an expected management reshuffle before the end of the year, amid ongoing uncertainty over company leadership.

Jay Y. Lee — a grandson of Samsung’s founder who was appointed executive chairman two years ago — was acquitted of stock manipulation charges in February after years of legal issues. Three months later, the company unexpectedly replaced its semiconductor division head with Jun Young-hyun, a memory chip veteran.

Management may have its work cut out for it in trying to win back investors, even with stock valuations near a record low and technical indicators flashing oversold signals.

“We don’t see much is changing with the Samsung executives and engineers are leaving the company,” said Park Jinho, head of equity investment at NH-Amundi Asset Management Co. in Seoul. Park reduced Samsung to underweight from neutral at the end of the second quarter and added SK Hynix instead.

Translation

三星突然損失 1,220 億美元，顯示了對AI睡着的代價

（彭博）— 僅僅是幾個月前，三星電子公司（SSNLF，005930.KS）似乎準備好從全球人工智慧熱潮中受益：利潤飆升，股價也升至歷史新高。

現在，這家韓國最大的公司已經成為一個鮮明的例子，說明在一個從保持技術優而勢獲利的行業裡，財富的轉變有多快。

由於人們越來越擔心該公司在人工智慧記憶體領域輸給規模較小​​的競爭對手SK Hynix Inc.（000660.KS，HXSCL），並且在外包晶片製造方面未能戰勝台積電（TSM，2330.TW） ，三星股價較 7 月 9 日的今年高峰下跌了 32%。在此期間，該公司的市值損失了 1,220 億美元，比全球任何其他晶片製造商都要大。

三星已承諾進行徹底改革以恢復競爭力，但包括 Pictet Asset Management Ltd. 和 Janus Henderson Investors SP Ltd. 在內的國際基金管理公司並不相信扭轉局面即將到來。自7月底以來，海外投資者已淨售出這家韓國公司價值約107億美元的股票。

新加坡 Janus Henderson Investors SP 的投資組合經理 Sat Duhra 表示：“過去幾個月，我們將三星的定位減少了一半以上，7 月它是我們份策略中最大的定位。”儘管Duhra表示，這些股票的估值已跌至有吸引力的水平，但他目前「無意」購買這些股票。

迅速消褪

智慧型手機和其他消費性電子產品仍然佔據三星銷售額的最大份額，但半導體近年來一直貢獻著最大的利潤。由於晶片業務最近陷入危機，這家總部位於Suwon的公司本月早些時候罕見地就令人失望的業績向投資者致歉。

該公司的故事凸顯了人工智慧如何成為當今晶片產業贏家和輸家的關鍵因素。當外國投資者紛紛撤離三星之際，英偉達公司已成為全球最大的公司之一。台積電是英偉達 (NVDA) 和蘋果公司 (AAPL) 設計的晶片的主要製造商，今年市值增加了超過 3,300 億美元。

三星的情況很快就惡化了。在公佈第二季營業利潤飆升 15 倍後，該公司股價一度創下歷史新高。就在 8 月份，投資人也樂觀地認為，它可以贏得更多為 Nvidia 提供高頻寬記憶體以與人工智慧處理器配合使用的生意。

在 SK Hynix表示已開始批量生產後不久，該公司於 10 月初承認其最新一代 HBM 晶片的延遲推出，這一贏得更多生意的希望破滅。同時，美國競爭對手Micron Technology Inc. 也在增加 HBM 業務的力度，並報告稱其產品需求強勁。

Pictet資產管理公司 的全球新興市場高股息團隊駐倫敦高級投資經理 Young Jae Lee 表示，三星正在「失去在半導體業務的技術領先地位」。他表示：「本質上，短期內很難重新獲得技術領先地位」; 並補充說該公司一直在減持三星股份。

管理的困境

除了在人工智慧記憶體方面的落後之外，三星多年來一直在付出昂貴的代價來縮小與台積電在代工業務方面的差距。與英特爾公司一樣 - 該公司在擴大其外包晶片製造業務的計劃中也遇到了類似的困難 - 這家韓國公司現在正採取裁員措施並用其他方法來止血。

三星將在周四發布詳細的第三季財報後會召開電話會議。值得關注的一點是，面对公司領導層持續存在不確定性，管理層預計將在年底前進行改組。

兩年前被任命為執行董事長的三星創始人的孫子Jay Y. Lee 在經歷多年的法律問題後，就股票操縱的指控於 2 月被判無罪。三個月後，該公司出人意料地用記憶體晶片資深人士 Jun Young-hyun 取代了半導體部門負責人。

即使股票估值接近歷史低點, 兼且技術指標閃出股票超賣訊號，管理層在試圖贏回投資者方面可能仍面臨艱鉅的任務。

首爾 NH-Amundi 資產管理公司股權投資主管 Park Jinho 表示：“我們認為三星高管和工程師離開公司並沒對有公司產生太大變化。” Park 在第二季末將三星的持股比例從 “中立” 下調至 “減持” ，並改為增持 SK Hynix。

So, just a few months ago, Samsung Electronics Co. was benefited by the global AI boom: profits were surging and its stock was rising toward an all-time high. Now, this company has become a stark example of how quickly fortunes can turn. Apparently, fortune can come and go very easily at a short period in the chipmaking business.

印尼請一艘中國船隻立即離開：南海油氣爭端升級

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Indonesia sent a Chinese ship packing, escalating a fight over oil and gas in the South China Sea

Business Insider -Thibault Spirlet

Thu, October 24, 2024 at 11:10 p.m. GMT+8·3 min read

Indonesia said it deployed two vessels and an aircraft to expel a Chinese ship from contested waters in the South China Sea.

The Indonesian National Armed Forces said its Maritime Security Agency's command and control center detected China's coast guard ship at the southern edge of the South China Sea, on Monday.

It said the Chinese ship disrupted survey work — often used to help locate oil and gas reserves beneath the seabed — by Indonesia's state-owned oil and natural gas company PT Pertamina.

The interaction is another turn in a yearslong dispute over who owns the South China Sea, and gets to exploit its resources.

China has staked out an aggressive claim to almost the whole sea, which its neighbors and most Western countries reject.

The rival claims have been playing out in often-violent encounters between Chinese and other ships.

In Monday's run-in, Indonesia said it dispatched a patrol ship dispatched to warn the Chinese ship away via radio.

It said the ship insisted the waters were Chinese, prompting Indonesia to send a navy ship and an aircraft to the area.

"Together, the two Indonesian patrol ships carried out shadowing and succeeded in driving the CCG 5402 ship out of Indonesia's jurisdiction," it said.

Shadowing means following another ship from a distance, a way of pressuring a rival vessel without direct confrontation.

Indonesia's Maritime Security Agency shared aerial footage of the operation on Wednesday, which it said showed the incident.

Neither side immediately responded to requests for comment from Business Insider. As of early Thursday, China had yet to issue any public statement on the encounter.

The incident escalates the dispute over the South China Sea, and highlights the richness of its resources.

It is home to an estimated 3.6 billion barrels of oil and other liquids and 40.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

China's claims overlap with neighboring countries, including Indonesia, Taiwan, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

An encounter in June between the Philippines and China turned violent, escalating into a physical fight involving bare fists, knives, and swords.

The US Navy has made a point of operating in the South China Sea, sailing in areas it regards as international waters.

Malaysia and Vietnam are also pursuing oil-and-gas projects in the South China Sea, and running into Chinese opposition.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies' Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative assessed in March that the China Coast Guard in 2023 patrolled near Vietnam's Vanguard Bank oil and gas operations for 221 days and near a major cluster of Malaysian oil and gas operations for 338 days.

The encounters so far have stopped short of a true naval confrontation, which risks escalating into a devastating war.

A conflict in the South China Sea — a critical trade route estimated to carry one-third of global shipping — could result in a 10-33% loss in GDP for Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, according to a 2020 working paper by the US National Bureau of Economic Research.

Translation

印尼請一艘中國船隻立即離開：南海油氣爭端升級

印尼表示，它部署了兩艘船隻和一架飛機，將一艘中國船隻驅逐出南海有爭議的水域。

印尼國家武裝部隊表示，其海事安全局指揮和控制中心週一在南海南部邊緣發現了中國海警船。

據稱，中國船隻擾亂了印尼國有石油和天然氣公司 PT Pertamina 的勘測工作，該工作通常用於幫助確定海底下的石油和天然氣儲量。

這次互動是圍繞著誰擁有南海並開發其資源的長達多年的爭端的又一個轉折時機。

中國對幾乎整個海域提出了氣勢洶洶的主權主張，但遭到鄰國和大多數西方國家的拒絕。

中國與其他船隻之間經常發生暴力衝突，對抗的主張也不斷發生。

在周一的爭論中，印尼表示，它派出了一艘巡邏船，並通過無線電警告中國船隻離開。

據稱，該船堅稱該海域屬於中國海域，導致印尼派遣一艘海軍艦艇和一架飛機前往該地區。

它說: 「印尼兩艘巡邏船共同進行追隨行動，成功將CCG 5402船驅離印尼管轄範圍」。

進行追隨意味著從遠處跟隨另一艘船，這是一種在不直接對抗的情況下向對手船隻施加壓力的方式。

印尼海事安全局週三分享了此次行動的航拍片，稱該片顯示了這一事件。

雙方均未立即回應《商業內幕》的置評請求。截至週四早些時候，中國尚未就這次遭遇發表任何公開聲明。

這事件加劇了南海爭端，凸顯了南海資源的豐富性。

據估計，這裡蘊藏著 36 億桶石油和其他液體以及 40.3 兆立方英尺天然氣。

中國的主權主張與數個鄰國重疊，包括印尼、台灣、越南、汶萊、馬來西亞和菲律賓。

六月，菲律賓和中國之間的衝突升級為赤手空拳、刀劍的肢體衝突。

美國海軍已在南海開展了行動要點，在其視為國際水域的地區航行。

馬來西亞和越南也在南海推展石油和天然氣項目，但遭到了中國的異議。

戰略與國際研究中心的Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative 的3月份評估稱，中國海警於2023年在越南Vanguard Bank 油氣作業區附近巡邏了221天，又在馬來西亞一個主要的油氣作業集群區附近巡邏了338天。

到目前為止，這些相遇還沒有達到真正的海上對抗，對抗有可能升級為一場破壞性的戰爭。

根據美國國家經濟研究局2020年的一份工作論文，南海的衝突可能導致台灣、新加坡、香港、越南、菲律賓同馬來西亞的10% 到33%GDP損失，南海係一條重要的貿易路線，估計承載住全球三分一的航運。

              So, Indonesia has deployed two vessels and an aircraft to expel a Chinese ship from the contested waters in the South China Sea. AMTI assesses that the China Coast Guard in 2023 had frequently patrolled the area near Vietnam's Vanguard Bank oil and gas operations, and also near a major cluster of Malaysian oil and gas operations. Apparently, the present dispute over the South China Sea highlights the richness of its resources in the area.

Note:

1.   Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) was conceived of and designed by CSIS. It is an interactive, regularly-updated source for information, analysis, and policy exchange on maritime security issues in Asia. AMTI aims to promote transparency in the Indo-Pacific to dissuade assertive behavior and conflict and generate opportunities for cooperation and confidence building. (https://amti.csis.org/about/)

2. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is an American think tank based in Washington, D.C. The center conducts policy studies and strategic analyses of political, economic and security issues throughout the world, with a focus on issues concerning international relations, trade, technology, finance, energy and geostrategy. (Wikipedia)

巨型隕石撕開了海底並煮沸了地球的海洋 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Mega meteorite tore up seabed and boiled Earth's oceans (2/2)

BBC - Georgina Rannard - Climate and science reporter

Wed, October 23, 2024 at 2:08 a.m. GMT+8·4 min read

(continue)

A huge tsunami would have swept across the globe, ripped up the sea floor, and flooded coastlines.

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami would have paled in comparison, suggests Prof Drabon.

All that energy would have generated massive amounts of heat that boiled the oceans causing up to tens of metres of water to evaporate. It would also have increased air temperatures by up to 100C.

The skies would have turned black, choked with dust and particles. Without sunlight penetrating the darkness, simple life on land or in shallow water that relied on photosynthesis would have been wiped out.

These impacts are similar to what geologists have found about other big meteorite impacts and what was suspected for S2.

But what Prof Drabon and her team found next was surprising. The rock evidence showed that the violent disturbances churned up nutrients like phosphorus and iron that fed simple organisms.

“Life was not only resilient, but actually bounced back really quickly and thrived,” she says.

“It’s like when you brush your teeth in the morning. It kills 99.9% of bacteria, but by the evening they're all back, right?” she says.

The new findings suggest that the big impacts were like a giant fertiliser, sending essential ingredients for life like phosphorus around the globe.

The tsunami sweeping the planet would also have brought iron-rich water from the depths to the surface, giving early microbes extra energy.

The findings add to a growing view among scientists that early life was actually helped by the violent succession of rocks striking Earth in its early years, Prof Drabon says.

“It seems that life after the impact actually encountered really favourable conditions that allowed it to bloom,” she explains.

The findings are published in the scientific journal PNAS.

Translation

巨型隕石撕開了海底並煮沸了地球的海洋 (2/2)

（繼續）

一場巨大的海嘯曾席捲全球，撕開海底，淹沒海岸線。

Drabon教授表示，相較之下，2004 年的印度洋海嘯就顯得相形見絀了。

所有這些能量都會產生大量熱量，使海洋沸騰，導致蒸發數十公尺深的水。它還會使空氣溫度升高高達 100 攝氏度。

天空曾變成黑色，充滿灰塵和顆粒。如果沒有陽光穿透黑暗，陸地或淺水中依靠光合作用的簡單生命就會被消滅。

這些影響與地質學家對其他大型隕石影響的發現相似, 及對 S2 的懷疑相似。

但Drabon教授和她的團隊接下來的發現令人驚訝。岩石證據表明，劇烈的干擾攪動了磷和鐵等養分，而這些養分是簡單生物體的營養物質。

她說:「生命不僅有韌力，而且實際上很快就會反彈並蓬勃發展」。

她說:「這就像你早上刷牙時一樣。它可以殺死 99.9% 的細菌，但到了晚上它們就會全部回來，對嗎」？

新的發現表明，巨大的撞擊就像一個巨大的肥料，將磷等生命必需的成分輸送到全球各地。

席捲地球的海嘯也將含豐富鐵的水從深處帶到了地表，為早期微生物提供了額外的能量。

Drabon教授表示，這些發現進一步加强了科學家中已普及的觀點，即早期生命實際上是受到了早期猛烈岩石撞擊地球的幫助。

她解釋道:「看來撞擊後的生命實際上遇到了真正有利的條件，使其得以興盛」。

研究結果發表在科學期刊《PNAS》。

So, a huge meteorite known as S2 first discovered in 2014 has caused a tsunami bigger than any in known human history. The S2 meteorite violently gouged out a 500km crater and melt rocks caused by the impact ejected at high speeds to form a cloud that circled around the globe. The tsunami it created brought iron-rich water from the depths to the earth’s surface, giving early microbes extra energy and creating a favorable condition that allowed simple organisms to prosper. Apparently it is an important stage in the development of life on earth.