烏克蘭稱其遠程無人機襲擊了俄羅斯一家生產致命的「沙赫德」無人機彈頭工廠

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Ukraine says its long-range drones attacked a Russian factory making warheads for its deadly Shaheds

Business Insider - Jake Epstein

Fri, July 4, 2025 at 8:54 a.m. PDT·3 min read

The Ukrainian military said on Friday that it carried out a long-range attack on a Russian factory producing warheads for Moscow's deadly Shahed drones, marking Kyiv's latest deep-strike operation targeting the Kremlin's war machine.

The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said it targeted the JSC FNPC Research Institute of Applied Chemistry in Sergiev Posad, a city just northeast of Moscow, more than 500 kilometers (310 miles) away from Ukraine's border.

The attack was carried out by units of the Unmanned Systems Forces and other elements of the military. The USF, a first-of-its-kind branch of the armed forces that was established last year and focuses solely on drone combat, said soldiers of the 14th separate drone regiment were involved in the operation.

The USF said at least one drone struck the facility, causing a fire and heavy smoke, and that an electric substation that provided power to the site was damaged. It shared footage purporting to show the moment of the attack and the aftermath.

Business Insider could not independently verify all the details of the operation. Russia's defense ministry did not acknowledge the attack, although it did report shooting down Ukrainian drones over Russian territory on Friday.

Ukraine said the JSC FNPC Research Institute of Applied Chemistry, part of Russia's state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec, is under international sanctions because of its involvement in the war. The facility develops and manufactures parts for missile and artillery systems, as well as thermobaric warheads for Shahed drones.

The notorious Shahed-136 is an Iranian-designed drone that Russia now produces at home. Historically, these one-way attack munitions could fly at speeds of over 115 mph with a nearly 90-pound explosive warhead, although the team leader for a Ukrainian mobile air defense unit recently told BI that Moscow had modified the Shaheds to make them faster and deadlier.

Shahed drones are traditionally slower and less lethal than cruise or ballistic missiles, although they are much cheaper, allowing Russia to launch hundreds of them in large-scale attacks. On Thursday night, for instance, Moscow launched at least 330 of them into Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

That attack marked one of the largest Russian bombardments of the war. Ukraine said that Moscow launched 550 munitions, including Shaheds, decoy drones, and cruise and ballistic missiles, mainly targeting the capital city, Kyiv. A majority of the threats were intercepted, although at least 23 people were injured.

The attack came as the Trump administration reportedly halted shipments of crucial weapons, including air defense ammunition, to Ukraine. The move could affect Kyiv's ability to protect itself from the Russian bombardments, which have intensified in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump remains entangled in efforts to secure a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and discussed peace talks in a call with his counterpart, Vladimir Putin, shortly before the huge attack on Thursday.

"Notably, the first air raid alerts in our cities and regions yesterday began to blare almost simultaneously with media reports discussing a phone call between President Trump and Putin," Zelenskyy said.

Translation

烏克蘭稱其遠程無人機襲擊了俄羅斯一家生產致命的「沙赫德」無人機彈頭的工廠

烏克蘭軍方週五表示，對一家為莫斯科生產致命的「沙赫德」無人機的彈頭的俄羅斯工廠進行了遠程攻擊，這是基輔對克里姆林宮戰爭機器的最新一次深入打擊行動。

烏克蘭武裝部隊總參謀部表示，這次攻擊的目標是位於莫斯科東北部 Sergiev Posad 城市的 JSC FNPC 應用化學研究所，該研究所距離烏克蘭邊境超過500公里（310英里）。

此次襲擊由無人系統部隊 (USF) 和其他軍方單位實施。USF 是首個專門從事無人機作戰的武裝部隊, 它於去年成立。部隊表示第14個獨立無人機團的士兵參與了這行動。

USF 表示，至少有一架無人機襲擊了該設施，引發火災和濃煙，為該設施供電的變電站也遭到損壞。 USF 分享了據稱顯示襲擊發生時刻和後果的影片。

Business Insider 無法獨立核實此行動的所有細節。俄羅斯國防部並未承認這起襲擊，但確實有報告稱，週五在俄羅斯領土上空擊落了烏克蘭無人機。

烏克蘭表示，俄羅斯國有國防集團俄羅斯技術集團（Rostec）旗下的 JSC FNPC 應用化學研究所因參與戰爭而受到國際制裁。該研究所研發和生產飛彈和火砲系統的零件，以及「沙赫德」（Shahed）無人機的溫壓彈頭。

悪名昭著的「沙赫德」-136 無人機是由伊朗設計的，目前俄羅斯已在國內生產。歷史上，這些單向攻擊彈藥的飛行速度可達每小時115英里（約184公里），配備近90磅（約44公斤）的爆炸彈頭。不過，烏克蘭機動防空部隊的一位負責人最近告訴 Business Insider，莫斯科對「沙赫德」進行了改進，使其更快、更有殺傷力。

「沙赫德」無人機通常比巡航飛彈或彈道飛彈速度慢、殺傷力更低，但它們價格低得多，這使得俄羅斯能夠發射數百枚這種無人機進行大規模攻擊。例如，俄羅斯總統澤連斯基表示，週四晚間，莫斯科向烏克蘭發射了至少330枚「沙赫德」無人機。

這次襲擊是俄羅斯在戰爭期間規模最大的轟炸之一。烏克蘭稱，莫斯科發射了550枚爆炸物，包括「沙赫德」無人機、誘餌無人機,以及巡航飛彈和彈道飛彈，主要目標是烏克蘭首都基輔。大部分威脅已被攔截，但至少有23人受傷。

據報道，這起攻擊事件發生之際，特朗普政府已暫停向烏克蘭運送包括防空彈藥在內的關鍵武器。此舉可能會影響基輔抵禦俄羅斯轟炸的能力，而俄羅斯在最近幾週加劇了轟炸。

與此同時，特朗普總統仍在努力促成俄烏停火，並在周四大規模襲擊發生前不久, 與俄羅斯總普京通電話並討論了和平談判事宜。

澤連斯基表示： “值得注意的是，昨天我們城市和地區開始發出空襲的警報，時間上幾乎與媒體報道特朗普總統在與普丁通話的同時響起。”

So, Ukraine said that it had carried out a long-range attack on a Russian factory producing warheads for Shahed drones, marking Kyiv's latest deep-strike operation targeting the Kremlin's war machine. The target was in Sergiev Posad, a city just northeast of Moscow, more than 500 kilometers away from Ukraine's border. Apparently, Ukraine has the ability to attack targets over 500 kilometers and Moscow is within the range.

Note

1. Thermobaric warheads (溫壓彈頭) are extremely destructive and psychologically potent, effective in specific tactical scenarios like clearing buildings or caves. While not banned, their severe effects raise significant humanitarian and legal concerns—especially if used in civilian areas. Their use has been documented across multiple conflicts, notably by Russia, the US, and others. (ChatGPT)

美國5月商品貿易逆差因出口下降擴大

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

US goods trade deficit widens in May as exports fall

Reuters - Reporting by Lucia Mutikani

Thu, June 26, 2025 at 6:28 a.m. PDT·1 min read

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. trade deficit in goods increased in May amid a decline in exports, but an ebbing inflow of imports likely positions trade to make a big contribution to gross domestic product in the second quarter.

The goods trade gap widened 11.1% to $96.6 billion last month, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Thursday. Exports of goods dropped $9.7 billion to $179.2 billion. Goods imports were little changed at $275.8 billion.

A flood of imports as businesses rushed to bring in goods before President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs came into effect boosted the goods trade deficit to a record high in the first quarter, accounting for much of the 0.5% annualized rate of decline in GDP during that period.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting GDP accelerating at a 3.4% rate this quarter. Given the gyrations from imports, economists cautioned against interpreting the anticipated bounce back in GDP as a sign of economic strength.

Data on retail sales, the housing and labor markets have suggested economic activity is softening.

 Translation

美國5月商品貿易逆差因出口下降擴大

 華盛頓（路透）－ 在出口下降之際，美國5月商品貿易逆差擴大，但進口流入的減少可能使貿易在第二季對國內生產毛額（GDP）做出重大貢獻。

美國商務部的人口普查局週四表示，上月商品貿易逆差额擴大11.1%，至966億美元。商品出口下降97億美元，至1,792億美元。商品進口基本持平，為2,758億美元。

在特朗普總統全面關稅生效前，企業爭相進口商品，導致進口激增，導致第一季商品貿易逆差創下歷史新高，這在很大程度上導致了同期GDP年化率下降0.5%。

亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行預測本季GDP成長率將達3.4%。鑑於進口的波動，經濟學家警告稱，不應將GDP預期的反彈解讀為經濟強勁的跡象。

零售銷售、房地產和勞動力市場數據表明，經濟活動正在放緩。

So,  businesses had rushed to bring in goods before Trump's sweeping tariffs came into effect and boosted the goods trade deficit to a record high in the first quarter. Apparently, the tariffs are impacting the trade figures and causing them to fluctuate.

Note:

The United States Census Bureau (美國人口普查局), officially the Bureau of the Census, is a principal agency of the U.S. federal statistical system, responsible for producing data about the American people and economy. The U.S. Census Bureau is part of the U.S. Department of Commerce. (Wikipedia)

特朗普的關稅本應會提振美元。那麼，美元為何跌至三年來的最低水準呢？ (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Trump’s tariffs were supposed to strengthen the dollar. So why is it the weakest it’s been in three years? (2/2)

John Towfighi, CNN

Wed, June 25, 2025 at 6:34 a.m. PDT·5 min read

(continue)

Loss of confidence

The dollar’s decline reflects a crisis of confidence in the United States, said Arun Sai, senior multi asset strategist at Pictet Asset Management.

“If you cannot with certainty take a view on the position of the US administration, it’s hard to commit capital,” Sai said. “What we’ve seen with the current administration in the last few months is that this notion of the US being a default destination for global capital is being challenged.”

The Trump administration’s flip-flopping on tariffs has been “detrimental to confidence” in the US dollar, according to Sai.

As Trump’s tariffs roiled markets in early April, there was a simultaneous drop in US stocks, bonds and the dollar that spooked investors. “That’s very peculiar. It doesn’t usually happen in the US,” Sai said. “For us, that’s indicative of a loss of confidence.”

Francesco Pesole, an FX strategist at ING, said the dollar’s status as a strong currency and haven that investors turn to during times of stress is being dented.

“It doesn’t mean it’s going to lose its crown. It doesn’t mean that it’s going to be substituted entirely. The dollar remains the number one currency in most transactions in the world and is still the most liquid one,” Pesole said. “However, there is now a case for markets to see that dominance sort of starting to decline at a faster pace than it has in recent years.”

A survey of global fund managers by Bank of America in June showed the lowest exposure to the US dollar since 2005.

Dollar down, euro up

Meanwhile, there have been more appealing investment opportunities in Europe. As the dollar has declined and the euro has strengthened, there are compelling opportunities to diversify and invest overseas, said Jason Blackwell, chief investment strategist at Focus Partners Wealth.

International stocks can provide better returns in a weaker dollar environment. “We can point to our non-US equity holdings and show what that diversification benefit has looked like year to date,” he said.

The euro is up 11.5% against the dollar this year, hitting its strongest level against the greenback in more than four years.

Blackwell said international mutual funds and ETFs are great opportunities to diversify portfolios. He said he sees the decline in the dollar as less of an indictment of the United States and more of a “positive outlook” for other countries around the globe.

Translation

特朗普的關稅本應會提振美元。那麼，美元為何跌至三年來的最低水準呢？ (2/2)

(繼續)

失去信心

Pictet資產管理公司高級多元資產策略師 Arun Sai表示，美元的下跌反映了人們對美國的信心危機。

Sai說: 「如果你不能準確定地了解美國政府的立場，就很難投入資金」; 「過去幾個月，我們看到現任政府的做法，將美國視作為全球資本默認目的地的理念正在受到挑戰」。

Sai認為，特朗普政府在關稅問題上的反覆無常「損害了人們對美元的信心」。

4月初，特朗普的關稅政策引發市場動盪，美國股市、債市和美元同時下跌，令投資人感到恐慌。 Sai 說: 「這是非常奇怪。這在美國通常不會發生」; 「對我們來說，這表明喪失信心」。

荷蘭國際集團（ING）外匯策略師 Francesco Pesole 表示，美元作為強勢貨幣和投資者在市場緊張時期尋求避風港的地位正在受到削弱。

Pesole說: 「這並不意味著美元將失去其王冠，也不意味著它將被完全取代。美元仍然是全球大多數交易中的第一大貨幣，而且仍然是流動性最強的貨幣」; 「然而，現在市場有理由認為，美元的主導地位正開始以比近年來更快的速度下滑」。

美國銀行6月對全球基金經理人進行的一項調查顯示，美元兌其他貨幣價值降至2005年以來的最低水平。

 

美元下跌，歐元上漲

同時，歐洲的投資機會也更具吸引力。 Focus Partners Wealth首席投資策略師 Jason Blackwell 表示，隨著美元下跌、歐元走強，分散投資及投資海外資產是極具吸引力的機會。

在美元走弱的環境下，國際股票可以提供更佳的回報。 他說: 「我們可以望向我們持有的非美國股票為例，看看今年迄今為止這種分散投資的效益如何」。

歐元兌美元今年上漲了11.5%，創下四年多來的最高水準。

Blackwell 表示，國際共同基金和ETF是分散投資組合的絕佳機會。他認為，美元下跌與其說是對美國的指控，不如說是對全球其他國家來說是一個「正面的展望」。

              So, the US dollar is having its worst year in decades. The US dollar index is down nearly 10% this year. The dollar’s decline probably reflects a crisis of confidence in the United States, and it seems that international mutual funds and ETFs are great opportunities to diversify portfolios.

Note:

1. Exposure to the U.S. dollar (對美元的風險敞口)can be understood in a few ways. One is through direct investment in the U.S. dollar itself, such as through an ETF that tracks its value against another currency, like the Canadian dollar. Another is through the U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar's value against a basket of foreign currencies. Finally, exposure can occur through investments in securities that hold multiple currencies. Understanding the type of exposure is crucial for managing financial risk and making informed investment decisions. (Sider)

特朗普的關稅本應會提振美元。那麼，美元為何跌至三年來的最低水準？ (1/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Trump’s tariffs were supposed to strengthen the dollar. So why is it the weakest it’s been in three years? (1/2)

John Towfighi, CNN

Wed, June 25, 2025 at 6:34 a.m. PDT·5 min read

The US dollar is having its worst year in decades. While stocks have recovered from their April lows and demand for bonds has been relatively steady, the dollar has continued a precipitous decline.

The US dollar index, which measures the dollar’s strength against six major foreign currencies, is down nearly 10% this year and on Wednesday hovered around its lowest level since 2022.

Wall Street had expected the dollar to strengthen under President Donald Trump’s second term. His policies of tax cuts were expected to spur economic growth and tariffs were expected to reduce demand for foreign imports, boosting the greenback’s value.

Yet the dollar had broadly weakened this year as Trump’s tariffs — and his back-and-forth decisions on implementing them, pausing them, raising them and lowering them — have injected uncertainty into markets and clouded the outlook for the US economy.

While tariffs can technically boost the dollar, they also have created an uncertainty about US policy that has “dominated” markets this year, driving the dollar lower, Barry Eichengreen, professor of economics and political science at UC Berkeley, told CNN.

“Investors don’t like uncertainty,” Eichengreen said, noting the negative impact on the dollar. While uncertainty around the US economy has increased, the European economy — though facing its own headwinds from tariffs — has emerged as relatively more stable.

“The consensus out there is that US growth is slowing owing to uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs and other things,” Eichengreen said. “The weakness of the dollar may also reflect new doubts about the currency’s safe haven status.”

Lingering concerns

A weaker dollar could support American exporters by making their goods relatively more affordable in the global market. It could also improve revenues for businesses with overseas operations and make visiting the United States relatively more affordable for international tourists.

However, the dollar is weakening at a time when there are heightened concerns about how the White House’s “erratic” policies and the massive US debt load might impact demand for US assets, Eichengreen said.

Republican lawmakers hope to deliver Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” to his desk by July 4. There have already been concerns about foreign investors demanding higher yields to hold US debt due to concerns about the deficit.

Foreign investors buying US debt want a strong dollar to get the most bang for their buck when converting their holdings into their own currency. As the dollar weakens, it eats into foreign investors’ return on their investments.

If there is waning demand for the dollar, Treasury yields could rise, increasing the cost of borrowing for both the US government and consumers.

(to be continued)

Translation

特朗普的關稅本應會提振美元。那麼，美元為何跌至三年來的最低水準？ (1/2)

美元正經歷數十年來最糟糕的一年。儘管股市已從4月的低點回升，債券需求也相對穩定，但美元卻持續大幅下跌。

衡量美元兌六種主要外幣強弱的美元指數今年已下跌近10%，週三徘徊在2022年以來的最低水準附近。

華爾街曾預計，在特朗普總統的第二任期內，美元將走強。他的減稅政策預計將刺激經濟成長，而關稅預計將減少對外國進口商品的需求，從而推高美元價值。

然而，由於特朗普的關稅政策 - 以及他在實施、暫停、提高和降低關稅方面的反覆決策 - 給市場注入了不確定性，並給美國經濟前景蒙上了陰影，美元今年已普遍走弱。

加州大學柏克萊分校經濟學和政治學教授 Barry Eichengreen 告訴 CNN，雖然關稅在技術上可以提振美元，但也造成了對美國政策的不確定性，這種不確定性在今年「主導」了市場，導緻美元走低。

Eichengreen說道: 「投資人不喜歡不確定性」，並指出了不確定性對美元的負面影響。儘管美國經濟的不確定性增加，但歐洲經濟 - 儘管也面臨關稅帶來的阻力 - 卻相對穩定。

Eichengreen說: 「外界普遍認為，由於特朗普關稅和其他因素的不確定性，美國經濟成長正在放緩」; 「美元的疲軟可能也反映出人們對其避險地位的新疑慮」。

揮之不去的擔憂

美元走弱可能會支撐美國出口商，使其產品在全球市場上相對更實惠。美元走弱還可以提高海外業務企業的收入，並使國際遊客赴美旅遊的費用相對更實惠。

然而，Eichengreen表示，美元走弱正值人們日益擔憂白宮「反覆無常」的政策和美國巨額債務負擔可能影響對美國資產之需求。

共和黨議員希望在7月4日前將特朗普提出的「一項大而美法案」提交給他。由於對赤字的顧慮，已經引發了担心外國投資者會要求持有美國債券可獲得更高的收益率。

購買美國債券的外國投資者希望美元走強，以便在將其持有的債券兌換成本國貨幣時獲得最大收益。隨著美元走弱，它會侵蝕外國投資者的投資回報。

如果對美元的需求減弱，美國公債殖利率可能會上升，從而增加美國政府和消費者的借貸成本。

（待續）

Asking generative AI could come with hidden environmental costs

 Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

生成ＡＩへの質問、隠れた環境コストがかかる可能性も

2025.06.24 Tue posted at 19:34 JST

  （ＣＮＮ） 仕事のメールに返信したり、結婚の誓いを作成したりと、生成ＡＩ（人工知能）は多くの人々の生活において頼りになる副操縦士だ。だが、ＡＩが問題を解決するたびに隠れた環境コストが積み重なっていることを示す研究結果が増えている。

ＡＩに出す指示（プロンプト）は「トークンＩＤ」と呼ばれる数字の集まりに分解され、石炭火力発電所や天然ガス発電所によって稼働する巨大なデータセンター（フットボールの競技場より大きなものもある）に送られる。そこでは、多数の大型コンピューターが何十回もの高速計算を行い、答えを作り出す。

引用されることの多い米電力研究所（ＥＰＲＩ）の推計によれば、そうしたプロセス全体を完了するには通常のグーグル検索よりも最大１０倍のエネルギーが必要になる可能性がある。

それでは、ＡＩに与える質問の一つひとつはどれほどの損害をもたらすのだろうか。これを調べるためドイツの研究者は、１４の大規模言語モデル（ＬＬＭ）を使ったＡＩシステムに対して、自由回答式と多肢選択式の質問の両方で試験を行った。その結果、複雑な質問は、簡潔な回答の質問と比較して最大６倍の二酸化炭素（ＣＯ２）の排出につながった。

さらに、より推論能力の高い「より賢い」なＬＬＭは同じ質問に答える際、より単純なシステムよりも最大５０倍多くの二酸化炭素を排出したという。

「フロンティアズ・イン・コミュニケーション」に掲載された論文の主筆者で、ミュンヘン応用科学大学の博士課程の学生、マキシミリアン・ダウナー氏は「これは、エネルギー消費とモデル性能の精度の間にトレードオフ（一方を立てれば他方が立たなくなる）関係があることを示している」と述べた。

通常は、こうしたより賢いエネルギー集約的なＬＬＭは、より小規模で簡潔なモデルよりも、トークンＩＤの処理に使われる「パラメーター」が数百億個多くなる。

「脳内の神経回路網のようなものだと考えてほしい。神経の接続が多いほど、質問に答えるための思考能力が高まる」（ダウナー氏）

 

二酸化炭素排出を減らすには

ダウナー氏によれば、複雑な質問には、多くのＡＩモデルが長文での説明を提供するよう訓練されていることもあり、より多くのエネルギーが必要となるという。ＡＩのチャットボットに代数の問題を解いてもらうと、答えを見つけるまでの手順を逐一説明してくれるかもしれない。

「ＡＩは特にユーザーが『お願いします』や『ありがとう』と丁寧に話す場合、丁寧な対応に多くのエネルギーを費やす。しかし、これは返答をさらに長くし、それぞれの単語を生成するのにさらに多くのエネルギーを消費する」（ダウナー氏）

こうしたことから、ダウナー氏は、ユーザーがＡＩとコミュニケーションを取る際には、より率直であることをユーザーに勧めている。希望する回答の長さを１～２文におさえるか、説明は全く不要だと伝えるのがいいという。

ＡＩ企業「ハギング・フェイス」のサーシャ・ルッチオーニ氏は、最も重要なのはダウナー氏の研究が、すべてのＡＩモデルが同じように作られているわけではないことを強調している点だと述べた。二酸化炭素の排出量を削減したいと考えているユーザーは、どのタスクにどのモデルを選択するのかをより慎重に検討するといい。

複雑なコーディングの問題を日々解いているソフトウェア技師なら、コーディングに適したＡＩが必須かもしれない。しかし、宿題を手伝ってほしいと思う普通の高校生にとって、強力なＡＩに頼るのは原子力発電で稼働するデジタル電卓を使うようなものだ。

ダウナー氏は、同じＡＩ企業でも提供されるモデルによって推論能力が異なる場合があるので、自身の必要性に最適なものを調べるべきだと指摘した。

ルッチオーニ氏は、可能であれば、簡単なタスクを実行する際には、インターネットの百科事典や携帯電話の電卓といった基本的な情報源を活用することを勧めている。

Translation

Asking generative AI could come with hidden environmental costs

 (CNN) Whether it's answering work emails or writing wedding vows, generative AI was the trusty co-pilot in many people's lives. But a growing body of research showed that every time when AI solved a problem, hidden environmental costs piled up.

Our instructions (prompts) gave to AI were broken down into a string of numbers called "token IDs" and sent to gigantic data centers (some bigger than a football field) powered by coal-fired or natural gas plants. There, dozens of big computers run dozens of rapid calculations to produce the answer.

According to a commonly cited estimate from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), completing that whole process might need up to 10 times more energy than a typical Google search.

So, how much damage could each question asked of AI would be caused? To find out, German researchers tested the AI systems that used 14 large language models (LLMs) with both open-ended and multiple-choice questions. They found that complex questions led to up to six times more carbon dioxide （ＣＯ２）emissions than questions with short answers.

What's more, "smarter" LLMs with better reasoning abilities emitted up to 50 times more carbon dioxide than simpler systems when answering the same question.

Maximilian Downer, a doctoral student at Munich University of Applied Sciences and leading author of a paper published in Frontiers in Communication said "This shows that there is a trade-off (if you pick one, you cannot pick the other) between energy consumption and the accuracy of the model performance."

Typically, those smarter, more energy-intensive LLMs had tens of billions more "parameters" to process token IDs than smaller, simpler models.

"Think of it like a neural network in your brain. The more neural connections you have, the more thinking power you have to answer a question," (Downer said)

 

How to reduce carbon dioxide emissions

Downer said complex questions required more energy, in part because many AI models were trained to provide lengthy explanations. When an AI chatbot was asked to solve an algebra problem, it might walk you through the steps it took to find the answer.

"AI spends a lot of energy being polite, especially when users say 'please' and 'thank you.'  Moreover, this made the reply even longer and consumed more energy to generate each word." (Downer said)

For this reason, Downer encouraged users to be more forthright when communicating with AI, to say limiting the length of the desired answer to one or two sentences, or to say you didn't need any explanations on that at all.

Sasha Luccioni of AI company Hugging Face said that most importantly, Downer's research had highlighted that not all AI models were created equal. Users who wanted to reduce their carbon footprint should be more thoughtful about which model they would choose for which type of task.

If you're a software engineer engaged in solving complex coding problems every day, an AI that's good at coding might be essential. But for an average high school student looking for help with their homework, to rely on a powerful AI would be like using a digital calculator powered by nuclear energy.

Downer noted that models offered by the same AI company might have different inference capabilities, so you should research on which one could best suit your needs.

Luccioni recommended that when performing simple tasks, to use basic information sources, such as an online encyclopedia or a calculator on your phone whenever possible.

              So, AI requires more energy to deal with complex questions. It is also noted that not all AI models are created equal. Users who want to reduce their carbon footprint should be more thoughtful about which model they should choose with regard to the type of task on hand in order to save energy.

Note:

1. A large language model (LLM) is a language model trained with self-supervised machine learning on a vast amount of text, designed for natural language processing tasks, especially language generation. The largest and most capable LLMs are generative pretrained transformers (GPTs), which are largely used in generative chatbots such as ChatGPT, Gemini or Claude. LLMs can be fine-tuned for specific tasks or guided by prompt engineering. These models acquire predictive power regarding syntax, semantics, and ontologies inherent in human language corpora, but they also inherit inaccuracies and biases present in the data they are trained in. (Wikipedia)

以色列如何利用間諜、走私無人機和人工智能震懾並牽制伊朗（2/2）

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

How Israel used spies, smuggled drones and AI to stun and hobble Iran (2/2)

The Associated Press - Julia Frankel and Sam Mednick

Tue, June 17, 2025 at 5:48 a.m. PDT·6 min read

(continue)

Using AI and human intelligence to select targets

To analyze information gathered from various sources, Israel used the latest artificial-intelligence, or AI, technology, said an intelligence officer involved with selecting individuals and sites to target. He said AI was used to help Israelis quickly sift through troves of data they had obtained. That effort began last October according to the officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media; it was one month before Netanyahu said he had ordered the attack plans.

An investigation by The Associated Press earlier this year uncovered that the Israeli military uses U.S.-made AI models in war to sift through intelligence and intercept communications to learn the movements of its enemies. It's been used in the wars with Hamas in Gaza and with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The intelligence officer involved in identifying the possible targets said options were first put into various groups, such as leadership, military, civilian and infrastructure. Targets were chosen if they were determined to be a threat to Israel, such as being deeply associated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard — a paramilitary force that controls Iran’s ballistic missiles.

The officer was tasked with putting together a list of Iranian generals, including details on where they worked and spent their free time.

Among the high-level military officials killed since Friday's attack were Gen. Hossein Salami, the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, and Gen. Mohammed Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran's armed forces.

In addition to AI, the Mossad relied on spies to identify top nuclear scientists and members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, according to one security official. At least eight members of the Guard, including the head of its missile program, were killed in a single Israeli strike on an underground bunker.

Targeting Iranian vehicles

Another facet of the attack was to strike Iranian vehicles used to transport and launch missiles.

Shine said the strategy was similar to a Ukrainian operation earlier this month in Russia. In that operation, nearly a third of Moscow’s strategic bomber fleet was destroyed or damaged with cheaply made drones snuck into Russian territory, according to Ukrainian officials.

In an interview with Iranian state-run television, the country's police chief, Gen. Ahmadreza Radan, said “several vehicles carrying mini-drones and some tactical drones have been discovered.” He added: “a number of traitors are trying to engage the country’s air defense by flying some mini-drones.”

 How far back does this go?

The Mossad is believed to have carried out numerous covert attacks on the Iranian nuclear program over the years, including cyberattacks and the killing of Iranian nuclear scientists. But it rarely acknowledges such operations.

In the 2000s, Iranian centrifuges used for enriching uranium were destroyed by the so-called Stuxnet computer virus, believed to be an Israeli and American creation.

In 2018, Israel stole an archive of Iranian nuclear research that included tens of thousands of pages of records, said Yossi Kuperwasser, a retired general and former military intelligence researcher who now directs the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

In July 2024, Israel killed a senior leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, with a bomb in a bedroom of a government guesthouse in Tehran.

Israel's blistering attack last week on the heart of Iran’s nuclear and military structure didn’t come out of nowhere, said retired Israeli Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi, who heads the Israel Defense and Security Forum think tank.

It was the result of “Israeli intelligence working extensively for years in Iran and establishing a very strong robust presence,” he said.

Translation

以色列如何利用間諜、走私無人機和人工智能震懾並牽制伊朗（2/2）

（繼續）

利用人工智能和人類智慧選擇目標

一位參與選擇目標人物和地點的情報官員表示，為了分析從各種來源收集的信息，以色列使用了最新的人工智能（AI）技術。他表示，人工智能被用來幫助以色列人快速篩選他們所獲得的大量數據。據這位官員透露，這項工作始於去年10月。由於未獲授權接受媒體採訪，這位官員不願透露姓名，這是內塔尼亞胡宣布下令實施攻擊計劃之前一個月。

美聯社今年稍早的一項調查發現，以色列軍方在戰爭中使用美國製造的人工智能模型來篩選情報並攔截通信，以了解敵人的動向。它曾在與加薩走廊的哈馬斯以及黎巴嫩真主黨的戰爭中被使用過。

參與確定潛在目標的情報官員表示，目標首先被分為不同類別，例如領導層、軍隊、平民和基礎設施。如果目標被確定為對以色列構成威脅，例如與伊朗革命衛隊（一支控制伊朗彈道飛彈的準軍事部隊）關係密切，就會被選中。

該官員的任務是整理一份伊朗將軍名單，包括他們工作地點和空閒時間的詳細資料。

自周五襲擊事件以來，遇難的高級軍官包括伊朗革命衛隊負責人 Hossein Salami 將軍和伊朗武裝部隊總參謀長 Mohammed Bagheri 將軍。

據一位安全官員稱，除了人工智能之外，摩薩德還依靠間諜來識別伊朗革命衛隊的高級核科學家和成員。以色列對一座地下掩體的攻擊中，至少有八名伊朗革命衛隊成員喪生，其中包括其飛彈計劃的負責人。

 

瞄準伊朗車輛

這次攻擊的另一個目的是打擊用於運輸和發射飛彈的伊朗車輛。

Shine 表示，這項策略與本月稍早烏克蘭在俄羅斯的行動類似。據烏克蘭官員稱，在那次行動中，莫斯科近三分之一的戰略轟炸機機隊被偷偷運入俄羅斯領土的廉價無人機摧毀或損壞。

在接受伊朗國家電視台採訪時，伊朗警察局長 Ahmadreza Radan 將軍表示： “已發現數輛載有微型無人機和一些戰術無人機的車輛” 。他還補充道： “一些叛徒正試圖通過驅動一些微型無人機來打擊該國的防空系統。”

這行動要追溯到什麼時候？

一般相信摩薩德多年來對伊朗核計畫發動了多次秘密攻擊，包括網路攻擊和殺害伊朗核科學家。但該組織很少承認此類行動。

進入21世紀，伊朗用於濃縮鈾的離心機被所謂的「震網」（Stuxnet）電腦病毒摧毀，據信該病毒是由以色列和美國共同開發的。

退休將軍、前軍事情報研究員、現任耶路撒冷戰略與安全研究所所長的 Yossi Kuperwasser 表示，2018年，以色列竊取了一份包含數萬頁記錄的伊朗核子研究檔案。

2024年7月，以色列在德黑蘭一家政府賓館的臥室裡用炸彈炸死了哈馬斯高級領導人 Ismail Haniye。

以色列退休準將現在是以色列國防與安全論壇智庫的負責人 Amir Avivi 將軍表示, 以色列上週對伊朗核和軍事核心結構發動的猛烈攻擊並非憑空而來。

這是「以色列情報部門多年來在伊朗廣泛開展工作並建立起堅實的立足點」的結果。

So, Israel shocked Iran when it pulled off an intelligence and military operation years in the making that struck high-level targets with precision. Guided by spies and artificial intelligence, the Israeli military unleashed a nighttime fusillade of warplanes and armed drones smuggled into Iran to quickly incapacitate many of its air defenses and missile systems. With greater freedom to fly over Iran, Israel bombarded key nuclear sites and killed top generals and scientists. By the time Iran mustered a response hours later, its ability to retaliate was greatly diminished. Apparent, Israel’s intelligent network is working very effectively.

以色列如何利用間諜、走私無人機和人工智能震懾並牽制伊朗（1/2）

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

How Israel used spies, smuggled drones and AI to stun and hobble Iran (1/2)

The Associated Press - Julia Frankel and Sam Mednick

Tue, June 17, 2025 at 5:48 a.m. PDT·6 min read

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel stunned and hobbled Iran last week when it pulled off an intelligence and military operation years in the making that struck high-level targets with precision.

Guided by spies and artificial intelligence, the Israeli military unleashed a nighttime fusillade of warplanes and armed drones smuggled into Iran to quickly incapacitate many of its air defenses and missile systems. With greater freedom to fly over Iran, Israel bombarded key nuclear sites and killed top generals and scientists. By the time Iran mustered a response hours later, its ability to retaliate — already weakened by past Israeli strikes — was greatly diminished.

This account is based on conversations with 10 current and former Israeli intelligence and military officials, some of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss clandestine operations.

It was not possible to independently verify some of their claims. But the former head of research at Israel's spy agency, the Mossad, confirmed the basic contours of the attack, saying she had inside knowledge of how it was planned and executed.

“This attack is the culmination of years of work by the Mossad to target Iran's nuclear program,” said Sima Shine, the former Mossad research director who is now an analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies.

Israel’s element of surprise was enhanced by Iranian officials’ apparent assumption that Israel wouldn’t attack while talks over its rapidly advancing nuclear program were ongoing with the U.S.

A sixth round of talks had been planned for last Sunday in Oman, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu activated “Operation Rising Lion” on Friday – after his country first notified President Donald Trump.

Netanyahu has for years said neutralizing Iran’s nuclear program was vital for Israel’s security, and Israel had previously taken steps to set back Iran's ability to enrich uranium to weapons grade. But Netanyahu said a more aggressive attack proved necessary, as Iran kept advancing its enrichment program despite U.S. diplomatic efforts and warnings from U.N. watchdogs.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini has repeatedly called for Israel's destruction. Iran's political leaders say their nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, though it was the only country without the bomb to enrich uranium close to weapons-grade levels.

Smuggling drones into Iran

The Mossad and the military worked together for at least three years to lay the operational groundwork, according to a former intelligence officer who said he had knowledge of the attack. This person spoke on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the subject.

The attack built off knowledge Israel gained during a wave of airstrikes last October, which “highlighted the weakness of Iranian air defenses,” said Naysan Rafati, an Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group.

To further diminish Iranian air defenses and missile systems at the start of last week's attack, Mossad agents had smuggled precision weapons into Iran that were prepositioned to strike from close range, according to two current security officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the missions. Those weapons included small, armed drones, which agents snuck into the country in vehicles, according to the former intelligence officer.

Mossad agents stationed weapons close to Iranian surface-to-air missile sites, Shine said. The agency works with a mix of people, both locals and Israelis, she said.

(to be continued)

Translation

以色列如何利用間諜、走私無人機和人工智能震懾並牽制伊朗（1/2）

耶路撒冷（美聯社） - 上週，以色列完成了一項醞釀多年的情報和軍事行動，精確打擊了伊朗高層目標，震懾並牽制了伊朗。

在間諜和人工智能的指導下，以色列軍方在夜間發動了由走私到伊朗的戰機和武裝無人機組成的猛烈攻擊，迅速摧毀了伊朗的許多防空和飛彈系統。憑藉更大的飛行自由，以色列轟炸了伊朗關鍵的核設施，並殺死了高級將領和科學家。幾個小時後，當伊朗做出回應時，其報復能力 - 因已被以色列的襲擊所削弱 - 大大減少。

本報告是基於與10名現任和前任以色列情報和軍事官員的對話，其中一些要求匿名，以討論秘密行動。

部分說法無法獨立核實。但以色列情報機構摩薩德 (Mossad) 前研究主管證實了這次攻擊的基本輪廓，並表示她掌握了攻擊計劃和執行的內部資訊。

前摩薩德研究主管、現任國家安全研究所分析師 Sima Shine 說道: 「這次襲擊是摩薩德多年來針對伊朗核計劃努力的結晶」。

伊朗官員顯然認為，在以色列與美國就其快速推進的核子計劃進行談判期間，以色列不會發動攻擊，這增強了以色列的出其不意。

第六輪談判原定於上週日在阿曼舉行，但以色列總理內塔尼亞胡於週五啟動了 “崛起雄獅行動” - 此前以色列已率先通知了特朗普總統。

多年來，內塔尼亞胡一直表示，消除伊朗核計劃對以色列安全至關重要，以色列先前也曾採取措施，阻止伊朗將鈾濃縮至武器級。但內塔尼亞胡表示，鑑於伊朗不顧美國的外交努力和聯合國監督機構的警告，仍在繼續推進其鈾濃縮計劃，因此有必要採取更具侵略性的打擊。

伊朗最高領袖哈梅內伊曾多次呼籲摧毀以色列。伊朗政治領袖聲稱，他們的核子計劃是用於和平目的，儘管伊朗是唯一一個國家沒有核武而去將鈾濃縮至接近武器級別。

將無人機走私到伊朗

 據一位知情的前情報官員稱，摩薩德和軍方至少合作了三年，為這次襲擊奠定了行動基礎。鑑於事態的敏感性，此人要求匿名。

國際危機組 的伊朗問題分析師 Naysan Rafati 表示，這次襲擊是基於以色列在去年10月空襲浪潮中獲得的訊息，這些空襲「凸顯了伊朗防空系統的薄弱」。

據兩位不願透露姓名的現任安全官員透露，為了在上週襲擊開始時進一步削弱伊朗的防空和導彈系統，摩薩德特工已將精確武器武器走私到伊朗，這些武器預先部署用於近距離打擊。前情報官員透露，這些武器包括小型武裝無人機，由特工用車輛偷偷帶入伊朗。

Shine 說，摩薩德特工在伊朗地對空飛彈發射場附近部署了武器。她還表示，該機構與當地人和以色列人都有合作。

（待續）