Open AI: Development of generative AI that reproduces human voices, there are also concerns about the risk of misuse

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

オープンAI 人の声を再現する生成AI開発 悪用リスク懸念も

2024年3月30日 21時54分

アメリカのベンチャー企業、オープンAIは、人の声を再現する生成AIを開発したと発表しました。病気などで、ことばがうまく話せない人の支援に役立つとする一方、選挙などで悪用されるリスクを避けるため、現時点では本格的な公開はしないとしています。

アメリカのベンチャー企業、オープンAIは29日、人の声を再現する生成AI「Voice Engine」を開発したと発表しました。

もとになる15秒の声を吹き込んだうえで、しゃべらせたい文章を入力すると、もとの声とそっくりな音声で文章を読み上げることができるということです。

また、もとの声のアクセントを保ったまま音声を外国語に翻訳することもできるとしています。

この生成AIについてオープンAIは、病気などで、ことばがうまく話せない人の支援や、企業の外国向けの情報発信などに活用できるとしています。

一方、人の声を再現する生成AIをめぐっては、選挙などで偽の情報を広げるために悪用される懸念も指摘されていて、オープンAIも「人の声に似た音声の生成に深刻なリスクがあることは認識している。特に選挙がある年は最重要事項だ」としています。

このため、現時点ではサービスの本格的な公開は行わず、著名人の声の再現を防止する仕組みを作るなど、悪用を防ぐ対策が必要だとしています。

Translation

Open AI, an American venture company, announced that it had developed a generative AI that could reproduce human voice. While the company said it could be useful for supporting people who were unable to speak the language due to illness or other reasons, they were not making it publicly available at this time to avoid the risk of it being misused in elections etc.

Open AI, an American venture company, announced on the 29th that it had developed a generative AI "Voice Engine" that reproduced the human voice.

After you recorded an original voice for 15 seconds, then keyed in a sentence that you wanted to say, this sentence would be read out in exactly like the original voice.

It was also possible to translate audio into foreign languages while preserving the original accent.

Regarding generative AI, this Open AI could be used to support people who could not speak the language well due to illness, etc., and for companies to disseminate information to foreign countries.

On the other hand, concerns had been raised regarding generative AI that it could be misused to spread false information in elections etc.  Open AI supposed that "We recognize that there are serious risks in producing sounds that resemble the human voice. This is especially important in years when there are elections."

For this reason, the service would not be fully released to the public at this time, and it was necessary to take measures to prevent abuse, such as creating a mechanism to prevent the reproduction of celebrity voices.

So, Open AI has developed a generative AI that could reproduce the human voice.  Such a device could help the making of fake new for the purpose of spreading false information or false message to confuse others. In future we should take extra care when we receive important voices messages.

大量廉價中國商品湧入世界並加劇貿易緊張 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

A glut of cheap Chinese goods is flooding the world and stoking trade tensions (2/2)

Analysis by Hanna Ziady and Laura He, CNN

Thu, March 28, 2024 at 4:42 a.m. PDT

(continue)

Earlier this month, Premier Li Qiang, Xi’s number two, told China’s parliament that the government would focus on exporting more of the country’s “new trio” of products, namely EVs, lithium batteries and solar panels.

Eskelund of the European Union Chamber of Commerce says the organization is seeing “overcapacity across the board” in China, whether in the production of chemicals, metals or EVs.

“We haven’t seen all that capacity coming online just yet. This is something that’s going to hit markets over the next few years,” he added.

Trade tensions mount

Beijing is aware of China’s overcapacity problem, acknowledging it as an issue for the first time in almost a decade at an annual meeting of senior officials in December.

But on the eve of this week’s China Development Forum, several Chinese state-owned media outlets published editorials challenging the notion that China’s supply glut poses a threat to other economies.

“What China exports is advanced production capacity that meets the needs of foreign customers,” Xinhua News Agency wrote.

Washington and Brussels have a different view, however. US President Joe Biden recently pledged to investigate whether imports of Chinese vehicles pose a national security threat.

“A dynamic auto industry is vital to the US economy,” he said in a statement last month. “China is determined to dominate the future of the auto market, including by using unfair practices. China’s policies could flood our market with its vehicles, posing risks to our national security.”

The EU, meanwhile, is looking into China’s state support for EV makers, which it suspects may be enabling these firms to keep prices super-low, creating unfair competition with European rivals.

European officials are also considering whether existing measures to safeguard the EU steel industry should be extended or adjusted, as well as investigating allegations of biodiesel dumping by China following a complaint by European producers. Biodiesel is a renewable alternative to fossil fuels used in the EU’s transport sector.

The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, said in December that it might impose tariffs on Chinese biodiesel imports if dumping was confirmed.

China, for its part, is fighting back. It said this week that it had filed a complaint with the WTO to contest “discriminatory subsidy policies” for EVs under Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. Earlier this year, Beijing opened an anti-dumping investigation into brandy imported from the EU.

If there is a silver lining to China’s influence in global trade, it’s that it should help keep goods prices and overall inflation in check in advanced economies this year, according to Jennifer McKeown, chief global economist at Capital Economics.

“But perhaps more importantly, persistent oversupply and low prices of Chinese goods will add to geopolitical tensions and keep the threat of tariffs and counter-tariffs alive,” she wrote in a recent note. And these could ultimately raise inflation in the years ahead, she said.

 - Shawn Deng contributed reporting.

Translation

（繼續）

本月早些時候，習近平的二把手、總理李強向中國人大表示，政府將重點出口更多中國“新三样”產品，即電動車、鋰電池和太陽能板。

歐盟商會的 Eskelund 表示，該組織發現中國 “全面產能過剩” ，無論是化學品、金屬還是電動車的生產。

他補充道: 「我們仍未看到那些產能已被用盡。 它是一些將在未來幾年內進入市場的東西」。

貿易緊張局勢加劇

北京已經意識到它的產能過剩問題，並在去年 12 月舉行的高級官員年度會議上, 近十年來首次承認這一問題。

但在本週的中國發展高層論壇 前夕，多家中國國有媒體發表社論，質疑中國供應過剩對其他經濟體構成威脅的觀點。

新華社寫道: 「中國出口的是滿足外國客戶需求的先進產能」。

然而，華盛頓和布魯塞爾卻有不同的看法。 美國總統拜登最近承諾調查中國進口車是否構成國家安全威脅。

他在上個月的聲明中表示: 「擁有一個充滿活力的汽車產業對美國經濟至關重要」。 「中國決心主導汽車市場的未來，包括採取不公平的做法。 中國的政策可能會使它的汽車充斥我們的市場，對我們的國家安全構成風險」。

同時，歐盟正在調查中國對電動車製造商的國家支持，歐盟懷疑這可能使這些公司能夠保持超低價格，從而與歐洲競爭對手形成不公平競爭。

歐洲官員也正在考慮是否應該延長或調整現有的保護歐盟鋼鐵工業的措施，並在歐洲生產商提出投訴後調查中國生物柴油傾銷的指控。 生物柴油是歐盟在運輸方面使用的化石燃料的可再生替代品。

歐盟執行機構歐盟委員會去年12月表示，如果傾銷被證實，可能對中國生物柴油進口徵收關稅。

就中國而言，它正在反擊。 它本週表示，已向世貿組織提出申訴，質疑拜登《通膨削減法案》下針對電動車的「歧視性補貼政策」。 今年早些時候，北京對從歐盟進口的白蘭地啟動了反傾銷調查。

Capital Economics 首席全球經濟學家 Jennifer McKeown 表示，如果說中國在全球貿易中的影響力還有一線希望的話，那就是它應該幫助控制發達經濟體今年的商品價格和整體通膨。

她在最近的一份報告中寫道： 「但也許更重要的是，中國商品持續供過於求和低價, 將加劇地緣政治緊張局勢，並使關稅和反關稅威脅持續存在」。她說，這些最終可能會加劇未來幾年的通膨。

              So, China’s factories are producing more steel, cars and solar panels than its slowing economy can use, forcing a flood of cheap exports into foreign markets. These goods create tensions with its major trading partners, including the United States and the European Union. China’s global trade surplus is now approaching $1 trillion. Probably the persistent oversupply of low-price Chinese goods will add to geopolitical tensions and keep the threat of tariffs and counter-tariffs alive, thus creating inflation globally.

Note:

1. China Development Forum (中國發展高層論壇) is a high level and annual international forum initiated in 2000 by China Development Research Foundation of the Republic of China's State Council. Initially it was conceived by former Premier Zhu Rongji. The forum aims to strengthen communication at high level between China and the world. (Wikipedia)

大量廉價中國商品湧入世界並加劇貿易緊張 (1/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

A glut of cheap Chinese goods is flooding the world and stoking trade tensions (1/2)

Analysis by Hanna Ziady and Laura He, CNN

Thu, March 28, 2024 at 4:42 a.m. PDT

China’s factories are churning out more steel, cars and solar panels than its slowing economy can use, forcing a flood of cheap exports into foreign markets.

The oversupply of Chinese goods in key industries is stoking tensions between the world’s biggest manufacturer and its major trading partners, including the United States and the European Union. Its global trade surplus in goods has soared and is now approaching $1 trillion.

The United States and the EU are fretting over potential “dumping” by China — that is, exporting goods at artificially low prices — with electric vehicles among the products caught in the crosshairs.

“Europe cannot just accept that strategically viable industries constituting the European industrial base are being priced out of the market,” Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, told reporters earlier this month.

But China needs to increase exports as a key measure to revive its economy, which is grappling with a protracted property slump, weak household spending and a shrinking population among other problems.

Beijing is now focusing on higher-value exports, after investing billions into advanced manufacturing. But the move is badly timed, coming amid slower economic growth globally and a shift by Western consumers from pandemic-era spending on goods to travel and leisure.

It is also coming up against a push by Europe and the United States to reduce their dependence on China and boost local manufacturing, creating jobs — including through the Net-Zero Industry Act and the Inflation Reduction Act respectively.

“It is hard for me to imagine that Europe would just sit by and quietly witness (its own) accelerated de-industrialization… because of the externalization of low domestic demand in China,” Eskelund said.

According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, prices of Chinese exports are at their lowest level since 2009, when the West was reeling from the global financial crisis.

And China’s surplus in goods trade has more than doubled since the pandemic, according to Brad W. Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. In 2019, the country exported an estimated $400 billion more in goods than it imported — a surplus that ballooned to $900 billion last year.

From clothes to cars

China’s exports of low-priced goods got a boost after it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. Its economy and heft as a manufacturer have also grown substantially since then.

Having conquered the production of clothing and consumer electronics, China has come to dominate electric vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines — industries viewed as strategically important in Europe and the United States as they seek to green their economies and reduce planet-heating pollution.

Europe’s solar panel producers have been all but wiped out by Chinese competition, and the same fate threatens its wind industry.

“European companies could fall behind (Chinese manufacturer) Goldwind, which already offers its turbines well below the price of the established (European) manufacturers,” Markus W. Voigt, CEO of the Aream Group, an asset manager specializing in renewable energy, said in a statement this month.

In the last three months of 2023, China’s BYD overtook Tesla (TSLA) as the top seller of EVs worldwide, capping an extraordinary rise for the Warren Buffett-backed carmaker. Compared with Tesla, BYD’s cars are more affordable, which has helped it attract a wider range of buyers. Its entry-level model sells in China for the equivalent of just under $10,000. The cheapest Tesla car, a Model 3, costs almost $39,000.

Alongside “surging EV exports,” China manufactures 80% of the world’s solar panels and makes more wind turbines than any other country, Setser wrote in a recent note. “Chinese policy continues to emphasize upgrading China’s capacity in advanced manufacturing as a major driver of future growth,” he added.

(to be continued)

Translation

中國工廠生產的鋼鐵、汽車和太陽能板超出了其在放緩中的經濟需求，迫使大量廉價產品湧入國外市場。

中國商品在關鍵產業的供應過剩, 正在加劇全球最大製造商與其主要貿易夥伴之間的緊張關係,包括美國和歐盟。 中國全球貨物貿易順差飆升，目前已接近1兆美元。

美國和歐盟對中國潛在的「傾銷」（即以人為壓低的價格出口商品）感到擔憂，其中電動車就是目標產品之一。

中國歐盟商會會長 Jens Eskelund 本月稍早對記者表示：「歐洲不能呆着地接受其構成戰略上可行的歐洲工業基礎, 因高價格而被擠出市場」。

但中國需要增加出口作為重振經濟的關鍵措施，目前中國正面臨房地產業長期低迷、家庭支出疲軟和人口萎縮等問題。

北京在向先進製造業投資數十億美元後，現在將重點放在高價值的出口上。 但這項措施的時機並不恰當，因為全球經濟成長放緩，西方消費者從疫情時期的商品消費轉向於旅行和休閒。

中國也面臨歐洲和美國推動減少對它的依賴、他們努力促進自己的製造業、去創造就業的機會- 包括分別通過淨零工業法案和通膨削減法案。

Eskelund 說: 「我很難想像，由於中國國內需求低迷的外向化，歐洲會袖手旁觀，靜靜地見證（其自身的）去工業化的加速」。

根據中國國家統計局的數據，中國出口價格處於 2009年以來的最低水平，當時西方正遭受全球金融危機的影響。

美國外交關係委員會高級研究員 Brad W. Setser 表示，自疫情爆發以來，中國的貨物貿易順差增加了一倍以上。 2019年，該國的商品出口額估計比進口額多了4,000億美元 - 去年順差激增至9,000億美元。

從衣服到汽車

2001年加入世界貿易組織（WTO）後，中國的低價商品出口得到提振，其經濟和作為製造商的影響力也大幅成長。

在征服了服裝和消費性電子產品的生產之後，中國已開始主導電動車、太陽能電池板和風力渦輪機 - 這些產業在歐洲和美國正在尋求綠色經濟和減少地球暖化問題之際, 被視為具有戰略重要性。

歐洲的太陽能板生產商幾乎被中國的競爭所淘汰，同樣的命運也威脅其風能產業。

專注於再生能源的資產管理公司 Aream Group 首席執行官 Markus W. Voigt 在本月的聲明中表示: 「歐洲公司可能會落後於（中國製造商）金風科技，金風科技提供的渦輪機價格已經遠低於老牌（歐洲）製造商的價格」。

在2023 年最後三個月，中國比亞迪 (BYD)超越特斯拉 (TSLA)，成為全球電動車銷量最高的公司，為這家巴菲特支持的汽車製造商的非凡冒昇畫上句號。 與特斯拉相比，比亞迪的汽車價格更便宜，這有助於它吸引更廣泛的買家。 其入門級型號在中國的售價略低於 10,000 美元。 最便宜的特斯拉汽車 Model 3 售價近 39,000 美元。

Setser 在最近的一份報告中寫道，除了「電動車出口激增」之外，中國還生產了全球 80% 的太陽能電池板，並生產了比其他國家更多的風力渦輪機。 他補充道: 「中國政策繼續強調提升中國先進製造能力，將其作為未來成長的主要驅動力」。

（待續）

Note:

1. First announced under the Commission's Green Deal Industrial Plan in early 2023, the Net Zero Industry Act (淨零工業法案) is part of the EU's direct response to the US Inflation Reduction Act. It was designed to help the EU reach its 2030 climate targets while boosting the production of key green technologies within the EU. (https://www.wwf.eu/?12836866/nzia-trilogue-pr#)

2. According to the US Department of the Treasury, on August 16, 2022, President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) (通膨削減法案) into law, marking one of the largest investments in the American economy, energy security, and climate that Congress has made in the nation’s history. Across the economy, the IRA is creating opportunities to build projects, hire workers, and manufacture equipment needed to strengthen domestic supply chains, lower household energy costs while reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and pay good wages for those efforts. (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/inflation-reduction-act#:~:text=)

3. Goldwind Science & Technology Co., Ltd., commonly known as Goldwind (金風科技), is a Chinese multinational wind turbine manufacturer headquartered in Beijing, China. Goldwind was a state-owned enterprise before 2007, with largest shareholders including Hexie Health Insurance, China Three Gorges Renewables Group, and the National Social Security Fund, state-controlled corporations holding almost 40% shares. Its founder, Wu Gang, is a Communist Party member and had a seat in the 12th National People's Congress. (Wikipedia)

Chinese EV giant BYD's net profit increased 80% last year, surpassing Tesla in global sales

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

中国ＥＶ大手ＢＹＤ、昨年の純利益は８０％増　世界販売でのテスラ超え受け

2024.03.27 Wed posted at 13:56 JST

香港／ロンドン（ＣＮＮ） 中国の電気自動車（ＥＶ）大手ＢＹＤは２６日、昨年の純利益が８０％以上増加したことを明らかにした。同年には米テスラを抜いて、ＥＶ販売台数で世界一の座に就いていた。

ＢＹＤによれば、２０２３年の純利益は３００億元（約６３００億円）と、２２年の１６６億元（約３５００億円）からほぼ倍増。「複雑な外的環境」にもかかわらず、実績を伸ばしたと報告した。具体的には世界的な高インフレや、経済大国の大半で成長が鈍化している状況を挙げた。

ＢＹＤは昨年１０～１２月期にＥＶの世界販売でテスラを抜いて１位となった。同時期の販売台数はＢＹＤの５２万５４０９台に対し、テスラは４８万４５０７台だった。

２３年通年のＢＹＤの世界販売は過去最高の３０２万台。前年比で６２％の伸びを記録した。このうちテスラが販売していないプラグインハイブリッド車が１４４万台を占めた。バッテリー使用のＥＶの販売台数はテスラ１８０万台に対し、ＢＹＤは１５７万台だった。

ＢＹＤのＥＶはテスラよりも価格が安く、幅広い購買層へのアピールに寄与している。ＢＹＤのエントリーモデルが中国国内で１万ドル（約１５０万円）をやや上回る程度の価格で購入できるのに対し、テスラで最も低価格の「モデル３」の値段は３万９０００ドル近くとなっている。

しかし、昨年の激しい価格競争はＢＹＤを含む多くの中国自動車メーカーの利益幅に打撃を与えている。

中国乗用車協会（ＣＰＣＡ）の直近の数値によれば、同国自動車業界の２３年の利益幅は平均５％。２１年は同６．１％、２２年は同５．７％と低下が続いている。

Translation

Hong Kong/London (CNN) Chinese electric vehicle (EV) giant BYD announced on the 26th that its net profit increased by more than 80% last year. In the same year, it overtook Tesla to become the world's number one EV seller.

According to BYD, its net profit in 2023 would be 30 billion yuan (approximately 630 billion yen), nearly double the 16.6 billion yuan (approximately 350 billion yen) in 2022. It reported that the company had improved its performance despite a "complex external environment." Specifically, citing the situation of high global inflation and slowing growth in most of the world's largest economies.

BYD overtook Tesla to become number one in global EV sales in the October-December period of last year. During the same period, BYD sold 525,409 cars while Tesla sold 484,507.

BYD's global sales for the whole year of 2023 reached a record high of 3.02 million units. It recorded a 62% increase compared to the previous year. Of these, 1.44 million were plug-in hybrid vehicles that Tesla did not sell. On the number of battery-powered EVs sold, Tesla was 1.8 million compared to BYD 1.57 million.

BYD's EVs were cheaper than Tesla's, contributing to their appeal to a wide range of buyers. Compared to BYD's entry-level model could be purchased in China for just over $10,000 (approximately 1.5 million yen), Tesla’s lowest-priced Model 3 costs nearly $39,000.

But intense price competition last year had hurt the profit margins of many Chinese automakers, including BYD.

According to the latest figures from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), the country's auto industry's profit margin in 2023 was 5% on average. It continued to decrease at 6.1% in 2021 and to 5.7% in 2022.

So, BYD announces that its net profit had increased by more than 80% last year, overtaking Tesla to become the world's number one EV seller. It is surprising to know that the price difference between the two companies is so huge: $10,000 compared to $39,000. I am wondering what are the reasons for that.

拉詹表示，印度錯誤地相信成長的 “炒作”

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

India Making Mistake Believing ‘Hype’ About Growth, Rajan Says

Anup Roy and Dan Strumpf

Tue, March 26, 2024 at 12:39 a.m. PDT

(Bloomberg) -- India is making a big mistake believing the “hype” around its strong economic growth since there are significant structural problems that need to be fixed for the country to meet its potential, former central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan said.

The biggest challenge a new government must grapple with after elections is improving the education and skills of the workforce, Rajan said in an interview. Without fixing that, India will struggle to reap the benefits of its young population, he said, in a country where more than half of the 1.4 billion population are below the age of 30.

“The greatest mistake India can make is to believe the hype,” he said. “We’ve got many more years of hard work to do to ensure the hype is real. Believing the hype is something politicians want you to believe because they want you to believe that we have arrived.” But it would be a “serious mistake for India to succumb to that” belief, he added.

Dismissing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ambition to make India a developed economy by 2047, Rajan said it was “nonsense” to talk of that goal “if so many of your kids don’t have a high school education” and drop-out rates are high.

“We have a growing workforce, but it is a dividend only if they’re employed in good jobs,” he said. “And that’s, to my mind, the possible tragedy that we face.” India needs to firstly make the workforce more employable, and, secondly, create jobs for the workforce it has, he said.

Rajan cited studies showing a drop in the learning ability of Indian school children to pre-2012 levels after the pandemic, and that only 20.5% of grade three students could read a grade two text. Literacy rates in India also remain below other Asian peers like Vietnam.

“That is the kind of number that should really worry us,” he said. “The lack of human capital will stay with us for decades.”

India needs to do a lot more work to get to 8% growth on a sustainable basis, Rajan said, dampening some of the recent optimism about the economy’s prospects.

Foreign investors have been flocking to India to take advantage of the rapid expansion, which the government predicts will reach more than 7% in the coming fiscal year, making it the fastest-growing major economy in the world.

Rajan said policy choices made by the Modi government to spend more on subsidies for chip manufacturing than the annual budget for higher education were misguided. The subsidies to semi-conductor businesses to set up operations in India was an estimated 760 billion rupees ($9.1 billion), compared with 476 billion rupees allocated for higher education.

Chip Manufacturing

The government was too focused on high-profile projects like chip manufacturing instead of doing the work to fix the education system so it can produce well-trained engineers needed for those industries, he said.

“The ambition of the government is real, to become a great nation,” he said. “Whether they pay attention to what needs to be done is a different question. I worry that we’ve become more fixated on prestige projects, which suggest more great nation ambition, such as chip manufacturing, while leaving the underpinnings that will contribute to a sustainable chip manufacturing industry.”

A professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Rajan is a well-known commentator on the global economy and an outspoken critic of India’s policies. He left the Reserve Bank of India for academia in 2016 after his term as governor wasn’t extended, having come under attack from hardline politicians for his views.

He recently co-authored a book titled Breaking the Mould: Reimagining India’s Economic Future and has been releasing a series of videos on his LinkedIn profile to provide perspective to India’s growth outlook.

Beyond improving education, Rajan highlighted a number of policy priorities for the new administration, including reducing inequality and increasing labor intensive production. He also said India’s governing system was too centralized, and devolving control to states will help improve development.

“What we need is a pragmatic approach,” Rajan said. Quoting China’s former leader Deng Xiaoping, who spearheaded that country’s economic reforms, Rajan said if India learns anything from China, it should be that “it doesn’t matter whether the cat is black or white, it matters whether it catches mice,” he said.

Translation

（彭博）—前央行行長拉古拉姆·拉詹 (Raghuram Rajan) 表示，印度正在犯下一個大錯誤，它相信圍繞其強勁經濟增長的 “炒作” ，因為該國需要解決重大結構性問題才能發揮其潛力。

拉詹 (Rajan)在接受採訪時表示，選舉後新政府必須應對的最大挑戰是提高勞動力的教育和技能。 他表示，如果不解決這個問題，印度將很難從年輕人口中獲益，因為印度 14 億人口中有一半以上的年齡在 30 歲以下。

他說: 「印度可能犯的最大錯誤就是相信炒作」; 「為了確保炒作的內容成真，我們還有很多年的努力要做。 政治家希望你相信炒作，因為他們希望你相信大家已經成長」。 但他補充說，「如果印度順從這種信念將是一個嚴重的錯誤」。

拉詹不認同總理莫迪希望到2047 年令印度成為發達經濟體的雄心壯志，他表示， “如果這麼多孩子沒有接受過高中教育” ，而且輟學率很高，那麼談論這一目標是「無稽之談」 。

他說: 「我們的勞動力不斷增長，但只有當他們從事好工作時，這才是紅利」。 「在我看來，這就是我們可能面臨的悲劇」。 他又說，印度首先需要提高勞動力的就業能力，次要為這勞動力創造出就業機會。

拉詹引用的研究顯示，疫情過後，印度學童的學習能力下降至 2012 年之前的水平，並且只有 20.5% 的三年級學生能夠閱讀二年級的課文。 印度的識字率也仍低於越南等其他亞洲國家。

他說: 「這個數字應該真正讓我們擔心」; 「人力資本的缺乏將伴隨我們數十年」。

拉詹表示，印度需要做更多的工作才能實現可持續的 8% 成長，這說話削弱了近期對經濟前景的樂觀情緒。

外國投資者紛紛湧入印度，以利用印度經濟的快速擴張，印度政府預計下一財年印度經濟成長率將達到7%以上，使其成為世界上成長最快的主要經濟體。

拉詹表示，莫迪政府做出的政策選擇是錯誤的，即晶片製造補貼的支出超過了高等教育的年度預算。 印度為半導體企業開展業務提供的補貼估計為 7,600 億盧比（91 億美元），而分配給高等教育的補貼為 4,760 億盧比。

 晶片製造

他說，政府過於關注晶片製造等受矚目的項目，而不是致力於修復教育系統，以便培養這些行業所需有足夠訓練的工程師。

他說: 「政府的雄心壯志是真誠的，去成為一個偉大的國家」。 「他們是否關注需要做的事情乃是另一個問題。 我擔心我們變得更加注重面子項目，這些項目隱射了更多一個大國的雄心，例如芯片製造，但這同時偏離了可為持續芯片製造行業做出貢獻的基礎」。

拉詹是芝加哥大學 Booth商學院的金融學教授，是著名的全球經濟評論員，也是印度政策的率直批評者。他因其觀點而受到強硬政客的攻擊, 2016年當他在印度儲備銀行行長的任期沒有延長後，他離開並進入學術界。

他最近與人合著了一本題為《打破陳規：重新構想印度經濟未來》的書，並在他的 LinkedIn 個人資料上發布了一系列短片，為印度的成長前景提供看法。

除了改善教育之外，拉詹還強調了新政府的一些政策優先事項，包括減少不平等和增加勞力密集生產。 他也表示，印度的治理體系過於集權，將控制權下放給各邦將有助於改善發展。

拉詹說: 「我們需要的是務實的方法」。 拉詹引用了曾帶頭中國經濟改革的前領導人鄧小平的話說，如果印度向中國學習什麼東西，那就應該是「不管黑貓白貓，重要的是它抓到老鼠」。

So, while foreign investors are flocking to India to take advantage of the rapid expansion predicted to reach more than 7%, former India’s central bank Governor says that India is making a big mistake in believing the “hype” around its strong economic growth since there are significant structural problems in India. In mine mind, usually education and health care are the two most important areas in which a government needs to focus upon and spend a large amount of money. It is shocking to know that, as Rajan points out, literacy rate in India is below other Asian peers like Vietnam. Perhaps India’s leaders are holding the view that they should focus on earn money now, and to use the earning to solve social problems afterwards.

There are no clues as to the cause of the passenger plane crash two years ago, Chinese authorities explain

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

２年前の旅客機墜落、原因解明の手がかりなし　中国当局が説明

2024.03.22 Fri posted at 12:06 JST

香港（ＣＮＮ） 中国航空史上最悪となる１３２人の死者を出した２年前のボーイング７３７―８００型旅客機墜落事故について、中国民用航空局（ＣＡＡＣ）は２０日、これまでの調査結果を公表した。

中国民用航空局は今回も墜落原因には踏み込まず、原因解明の手がかりとなるブラックボックスのデータにも言及しなかった。これまでの調査結果と同様、出発前の機体にも乗員や天候にも問題は見つからなかったと強調している。

中国東方航空５７３５便は２０２２年３月２１日、中国南西部の雲南省昆明市から南東部の広東省広州市へ向かう途中で墜落した。

中国国内では墜落原因をめぐる臆測が飛び交い、ブラックボックスの情報が公表されない理由を問いかける声も出ている。

２２年４月の時点で中国民用航空局は、墜落機から回収した２個のブラックボックスは損傷が激しく、データ復旧と解析を進めているとしていた。

米紙ウォールストリート・ジャーナルが同年５月、米当局者の話として伝えたところによると、同機から回収されたブラックボックスのデータは米国家運輸安全委員会（ＮＴＳＢ）に送られ、解析の結果、コックピット内の人物が故意に墜落させたとの見方が浮上した。

一方、中国民用航空局は、同機の墜落が故意だったとの見方を否定。同年４月の記者会見で「そうしたうわさは重大な誤解を生じさせ、事故に対する調査を妨げてきた」と強調した。

調査は今後も継続される見通しだが、同機のシステムにも構造にもエンジンにも欠陥や異常はなかったとする今回の発表について、中国のＳＮＳでは批判が噴出。「何もかも正常だったとすれば、機内の誰かが故意にやったか、突然の不可抗力のどちらかだ」というコメントがトップに浮上している。

Translation

Hong Kong (CNN) The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) released the results of its investigation into the crash of a Boeing 737-800 passenger plane two years ago that killed 132 people, the deadliest crash in Chinese aviation history.

The Civil Aviation Administration of China once again did not go into the cause of the crash, nor did it mention black box data that could provide clues to the cause. Consistent with previous investigations, the company stressed that no problems were found with the aircraft, its crew or the weather before it took off.

China Eastern Airlines Flight 5735 crashed on March 21, 2022 while en route from Kunming, southwest China's Yunnan province, to Guangzhou, southeast China's Guangdong province.

There were speculation in China about the cause of the crash, with some asking why the information from the black box had not been made public.

As of April 2022, the Civil Aviation Administration of China said that the two black boxes recovered from the crashed plane were severely damaged and that data recovery and analysis were underway.

In May of the same year, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing a US official, that the data from the black box recovered from the plane was sent to the US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), and as a result of analysis, it was believed that someone in the cockpit caused the crash intentionally.

Meanwhile, the Civil Aviation Administration of China denied that the crash of the plane was intentional. At a press conference in April of the same year, it was emphasized that `Such rumors have caused serious misunderstandings and have hindered the investigation into the accident.''

The investigation was expected to continue, but the announcement that there were no defects or abnormalities in the plane's systems, structure, or engine sparked criticism on Chinese social media. The top comment was ``Assuming everything was normal, either someone on the plane did it intentionally or it was a sudden force majeure.''

So, CAAC releases the results of its investigation into the crash of a Boeing 737-800 passenger plane happened two years ago and says that there were no problems with the aircraft, the crew or the weather before it took off. Many people in the Chinese social media comment that ``Assuming everything was normal, either someone on the plane did it intentionally or it was a sudden force majeure''. What do you think?

美國外科醫師進行首次豬腎移植給人手術

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

US surgeons perform first pig-to-human kidney transplant

By Nancy Lapid

March 22, 20242:33 AM PDTUpdated 2 days ago

March 21 (Reuters) - A 62-year-man with end-stage renal disease has become the first human to receive a new kidney from a genetically modified pig, doctors from Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston announced on Thursday.

The four-hour surgery, performed on March 16, “marks a major milestone in the quest to provide more readily available organs to patients,” the hospital said in a statement.

The patient, Richard Slayman of Weymouth, Massachusetts, is recovering well and expected to be discharged soon, the hospital said.

Experts are keenly interested in long-term results of the groundbreaking animal-to-human transplant, said Dr. Jim Kim, director of kidney and pancreas transplantation with USC Transplant Institute in Los Angeles.

Slayman had received a transplant of a human kidney at the same hospital in 2018 after seven years on dialysis, but the organ failed after five years and he had resumed dialysis treatments.

The kidney was provided by eGenesis of Cambridge, Massachusetts, from a pig that had been genetically edited to remove genes harmful to a human recipient and add certain human genes to improve compatibility. The company also inactivated viruses inherent to pigs that have the potential to infect humans.

Kidneys from similarly edited pigs raised by eGenesis had successfully been transplanted into monkeys that were kept alive for an average of 176 days, and in one case for more than two years, researchers reported, opens new tab in October in the journal Nature.

Drugs used to help prevent rejection of the pig organ by the patient's immune system included an experimental antibody called tegoprubart, developed by Eledon Pharmaceuticals.

The surgery marks progress in xenotransplantation – the transplanting of organs or tissues from one species to another - said Dr. Robert Montgomery, director of the NYU Langone Transplant Institute, who was not involved in the case.

The field "is marching closer to becoming an alternative source of organs for the many hundreds of thousands suffering from kidney failure," he said in an email.

According to the United Network for Organ Sharing, more than 100,000 people in the U.S. await an organ for transplant, with kidneys in the greatest demand.

NYU surgeons had previously transplanted pig kidneys into brain-dead people.

Montgomery said transplant centers are taking different approaches in terms of gene edits and medications, adding that "another big step will be when the FDA authorizes clinical trials so we may better understand what will work best for patients on our waiting lists."

A University of Maryland team in January 2022 transplanted a genetically modified pig heart into a 57-year-old man with terminal heart disease, but he died two months later.

Translation

路透社3月21日 - 波士頓馬薩諸塞州總醫院的醫生週四宣布，一名患有末期腎病的62歲男子成為第一個接受轉基因豬新腎臟的人。

醫院在一份聲明中表示，3 月 16 日進行的這場歷時四個小時的手術「標誌著為患者提供更容易獲得的器官的努力中的一個重要里程碑」。

醫院表示，這名患者名叫 Richard Slayman，來自麻薩諸塞州韋茅斯，目前恢復進度良好，預計很快就能出院。

洛杉磯南加州大學移植研究所腎臟和胰臟移植主任 Jim Kim 博士表示，專家們對這項突破性的動物移植到人類的長期結果非常感興趣。

Slayman 經過七年透析後，於 2018 年在同一家醫院接受了人類腎臟移植手術，但五年後器官衰竭，他又恢復了透析治療。

腎臟由馬薩諸塞州劍橋的 eGenesis 提供，來自一頭豬，經過基因編輯，去除了對人類受體有害的基因，並添加了某些人類基因以提高相容性。 該公司也把豬固有的、有可能感染人類的病毒滅活了。

研究人員報道稱，由eGenesis 飼養的,並經過類似編輯的豬腎臟已曾成功移植到猴子體內，這些猴子平均存活了176 天，其中一個案例存活了兩年多，研究人員於10 月在《自然》雜誌開啟了新分頁。

用於幫助防止患者免疫系統對豬器官產生排斥的藥物包括一種名為 tegoprubart 的實驗性抗體，是由 Eledon Pharmaceuticals 開發。

紐約大學朗格尼 (NYU Langone) 移植研究所所長 Dr. Robert Montgomery（未參與此案）表示，這次手術標誌著異種移植 - 即把器官或組織從一個物種移植到另一個物種 - 的進展。

他在一封電子郵件中表示，該領域「正在努力成為數十萬腎衰竭患者的替代器官來源」。

據 器官共享聯合網絡 稱，美國有超過 10 萬人等待器官移植，其中腎臟的需求最大。

紐約大學的外科醫生先前曾將豬腎移植到腦死的人身上。

Montgomery 表示，移植中心在基因編輯和藥物治療方面正在採取各種不同的方法，並補充說，「另一個重大步驟將是FDA 授權臨床試驗，以便我們更好地了解什麼是對我們在等待名單上的患者最適合」。

馬裡蘭大學的研究團隊於2022年1月將基因改造豬心臟移植到一名患有末期心臟病的57歲男子體內，但兩個月後他就去世了。

              So, a man with end-stage renal disease has become the first human to receive a new kidney from a genetically modified pig in the US. The surgery marks progress in the transplanting of organs or tissues from one species to another. If this transplanting is a success, it would help millions of patients globally. This is good news to human kind.

Note:

1. USC Transplant Institute (洛杉磯南加州大學移植研究所)in its web-site says that it is the leading living donor liver transplant program in SoCal and one of the top 5 living donor programs in the US. Their experts take a complete approach to caring for transplant patients and living donors — leveraging decades of experience pioneering groundbreaking treatments. (https://info.keckmedicine.org/living-donor/?gad_source)