4000年前，一場瘟疫神祕地從歐洲蔓延到亞洲。如今，科學家認為他們或許找到了背後的原因

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

A plague mysteriously spread from Europe into Asia 4,000 years ago. Scientists now think they may know how

 CNN - Taylor Nicioli

Tue, August 12, 2025 at 2:25 p.m. PDT

For thousands of years, a disease repeatedly struck ancient Eurasia, quickly spreading far and wide. The bite of infected fleas that lived on rats passed on the plague in its most infamous form — the Black Death of the 14th century — to humans, and remains its most common form of transmission today.

During the Bronze Age, however, the plague bacterium, Yersinia pestis, had not yet developed the genetic tool kit that would allow later strains to be spread by fleas. Scientists have been baffled as to how the illness could have persisted at that time.

Now, an international team of researchers has recovered the first ancient Yersinia pestis genome from a nonhuman host — a Bronze Age domesticated sheep that lived around 4,000 years ago in what is now modern-day Russia. The discovery has allowed the scientists to better understand the transmission and ecology of the disease in the ancient past, leading them to believe that livestock played a role in its spread throughout Eurasia. The findings were published Monday in the journal Cell.

“Yersinia pestis is a zoonotic disease (transmitted between humans and animals) that emerged during prehistory, but so far the way that we have studied it using ancient DNA has been completely from human remains, which left us with a lot of questions and few answers about how humans were getting infected,” said lead author Ian Light-Maka, a doctoral researcher at the Max Planck Institute for Infection Biology in Berlin. There have been nearly 200 Y. pestis genomes recovered from ancient humans, the researchers wrote.

Finding the ancient bacterium in an animal not only helps researchers understand how the bacterial lineage evolved, but it could also have implications for understanding modern diseases, Light-Maka added via email. “Evolution can sometimes be ‘lazy,’ finding the same type of solution independently for a similar problem — the genetic tools that worked for pestis to thrive for over 2000 years across over Eurasia might be reused again.”

Unraveling the mystery of a Bronze Age plague

The ancient bacterium that caused the Eurasia plague, known today as the Late Neolithic Bronze Age lineage, spread from Europe all the way to Mongolia, with evidence of the disease found across 6,000 kilometers (3,700 miles).

Recent evidence suggests that the majority of modern human diseases emerged within the last 10,000 years and coincided with the domestication of animals such as livestock and pets, according to a release from the German research institute. Scientists suspected that animals other than rodents were a part of the enormous puzzle of the Bronze Age plague transmission, but without any bacterial genomes recovered from animal hosts, it was not clear which ones.

To find the ancient plague genome, the study authors investigated Bronze Age animal remains from an archaeological site in Russia known as Arkaim. The settlement was once associated with a culture called Sintashta-Petrovka, known for its innovations in livestock. There, the researchers discovered the missing connection — the tooth of a 4,000-year-old sheep that was infected with the same plague bacteria found in humans from that area.

Finding infected livestock suggests that the domesticated sheep served as a bridge between the humans and infected wild animals, said Dr. Taylor Hermes, a study coauthor and an assistant professor of anthropology at the University of Arkansas.

“We’re sort of unveiling this in real time and trying to get a sense for how Bronze Age nomadic herders out in the Eurasian Steppe were setting the stage for disease transmission that potentially led to impacts elsewhere,” Hermes said, “not only in later in time, but also in a much more distant, distant landscape.”

During this time within the Eurasian Steppe, as many as 20% of the bodies in some cemeteries are those of people who were infected with, and most likely died from, the plague, making it an extremely pervasive disease, Hermes said. While livestock are seemingly a part of what made the disease so widespread, they are only one piece of the puzzle. The identification of the bacterial lineage in an animal opens new avenues for researching this disease’s evolution as well as the later lineage that caused the Black Death in Europe and the plague that’s still around today, he added.

“It’s not surprising, but it is VERY cool to see (the DNA) isolated from an ancient animal. It’s extremely difficult to find it in humans and even more so in animal remains, so this is really interesting and significant,” Hendrik Poinar, evolutionary geneticist and director of the Ancient DNA Centre at McMaster University in Hamilton, Ontario, wrote in an email. Poinar was not involved with the study.

It is likely that humans and animals were passing the strains back and forth, but it isn’t clear how they did so — or how sheep were infected in the first place. It is possible sheep picked up the bacteria through a food or water source and then transmitted the disease to humans via the animal’s contaminated meat, he added.

“I think it shows how extremely successful (if you want to label it that way) this particular pathogen has been,” Poinar added. He, as well as the study’s authors, said they hope that further research uncovers other animals infected with the ancient strain to further the understanding of the disease’s spread and evolution.

Ancient plague to modern plague

While the plague lineage that persisted during the Bronze Age is extinct, Yersinia pestis is still around in parts of Africa and Asia as well as the western United States, Brazil and Peru. But it’s rare to encounter the bacteria, with only 1,000 to 2,000 cases of plague annually worldwide.

There is no need for alarm when it comes to dealing with livestock and pets, Hermes said. The findings are a reminder that animals carry diseases that are transmittable to humans. Be cautious when cooking meat, or to take care when bitten by an animal, he added.

“The takeaway is that humans aren’t alone in disease, and this has been true for thousands of years. The ways we are drastically changing our environment and how wild and domesticated animals are connected to us have the potential to change how disease can come into our communities,” Light-Maka said. “And if you see a dead prairie dog, maybe don’t go and touch it.”

Translation

4000年前，一場瘟疫神祕地從歐洲蔓延到亞洲。如今，科學家認為他們或許找到了背後的原因

數千年來，一種疾病一再襲擊古代歐亞大陸，並迅速廣泛傳播。寄生在老鼠身上的受感染跳蚤的叮咬將這種瘟疫以其最臭名昭著的形式 - 14世紀的黑死病 - 傳染給了人類，這至今這仍是最常見的傳播方式。

然而，在青銅時代，鼠疫菌 - 耶爾森氏菌 (Yersinia pestis)在遺傳方面, 尚未形成其可透過跳蚤去傳播它的後期菌株的技能。科學家一直對這種疾病在當時如何持續存在感到困惑。

如今，一個國際研究小組從非人類宿主  -  一隻生活在約4000年前，現今俄羅斯境內的青銅時代家養羊體內提取了首個古代鼠疫耶爾森氏菌基因組。這項發現使科學家們能夠更了解這種疾病在古代的傳播和生態環境，並由此認為牲畜在其遍布歐亞大陸的傳播中發揮了作用。這項研究結果於週一發表在《細胞》雜誌上。

該研究的主要作者、柏林 Max Planck 感染生物學研究所的博士研究員 Ian Light-Maka 研究所的博士研究員說: 「鼠疫耶爾森氏菌是一種史前時期出現的人畜共患疾病（在人與動物之間傳播），但迄今為止，我們利用古代DNA對其進行研究的方式完全依賴於人類遺骸，這給我們留下了許多關於人類如何被感染的疑問，卻鮮有答案」。研究人員寫道，目前已從古人類體內提取了近200個鼠疫耶爾森氏菌基因組。

Light-Maka 透過電子郵件補充道，在動物體內發現這種古老的細菌不僅有助於研究人員了解細菌譜系的演化過程，還可能對理解現代疾病產生重要意義。 “進化有時很 ‘懶惰’，針對類似的問題, 它會獨立地找到同類型的解決方案 - 導致鼠疫桿菌在歐亞大陸繁衍生息超過2,000年的遺傳基因技術可能會再次被重複利用。”

 

揭開青銅時代瘟疫之謎

導致歐亞大陸瘟疫的古老細菌，如今被稱為新石器時代晚期青銅時代傳承譜系，從歐洲一路傳播到蒙古，在6,000公里（3,700英里）的範圍內都發現了這種疾病的證據。

根據德國研究機構發佈的新聞稿，最近的證據表明，出現在過去1萬年內的大多數現代人類疾病，與牲畜和寵物等動物的馴化同時發生。科學家懷疑，除了囓齒動物 (rodents)，其他動物也是青銅時代瘟疫傳播這一巨大謎團的一部分，但由於缺乏從動物宿主體內提取的細菌基因組，因此尚不清楚具體是哪些動物。

為了找到古代瘟疫基因組，研究人員研究了來自俄羅斯 Arkaim 古遺址的青銅時代動物遺骸。該定居點曾與一個名為 Sintashta-Petrovka 的文化族群聯繫在一起，該文化以其畜牧業的創新而聞名。在那裡，研究人員發現了缺失的環節 - 一顆4,000年前的綿羊的牙齒，它感染了與該地區人類相同的瘟疫細菌。

這項研究的共同作者、阿肯色大學人類學助理教授 Taylor Hermes 博士表示，發現受感染的牲畜表明，家養綿羊充當了人類與受感染野生動物之間的橋樑。

Hermes 說: “我們正在實時揭示這一現象，並試圖了解青銅時代歐亞草原的游牧民是如何為疾病傳播奠定基礎的，這種傳播可能對其他地方造成影響”; “它不僅影響到後來的時代，也影響到更遙遠、更遙遠的地方。”

Hermes 說，在這段時期，歐亞草原的一些墓地中多達20%的屍體是有感染鼠疫的人，而且很可能死於鼠疫，這使得鼠疫成為一種極為普遍的疾病。雖然牲畜似乎是導致這種疾病如此廣泛傳播的原因之一，但它們只是謎團中的一塊拼圖。他補充說，在動物體內鑑定出細菌譜系，為研究這種疾病的進化, 以及導致歐洲黑死病, 和至今仍在蔓延的瘟疫的後期譜系開闢了新的途徑。

進化遺傳學家、安大略省漢密爾頓市 McMaster大學古代DNA中心主任 Hendrik Poinar 在一封電子郵件中寫道: 「這並不奇怪，但看到從古代動物身上分離出的DNA真的非常酷。在人類身上找到這種DNA極其困難，在動物遺骸中就更難了，所以這真的很有趣，意義重大」。Poinar並沒有參與這項研究。

人類和動物之間很可能互相傳遞了這些菌株，但目前尚不清楚是怎樣做成的, 或者說綿羊最初是如何被感染的。他補充說，綿羊有可能透過食物或水源感染了這種細菌，然後透過受感染的羊肉將疾病傳播給人類。

Poinar補充道: 「我認為這表明這種特殊病原體（如果你想這樣稱呼它的話）是多麼成功的」。他和研究的作者表示，他們希望進一步的研究能發現其他被這種古老菌株感染的動物，以進一步了解這種疾病的傳播和演化。

 

從古代瘟疫到現代瘟疫

雖然青銅時代存在的鼠疫譜系已經滅絕，但鼠疫耶爾森氏菌仍存在於非洲和亞洲部分地區以及美國西部、巴西和秘魯。但這種細菌很少見，全球每年只有1,000 到 2,000 鼠疫病例。

Hermes 表示，在處理牲畜和寵物時無需驚慌。這些發現提醒我們動物可以把疾病傳播給人類。他補充道烹調肉類時要小心，被動物咬傷時也要小心。

Light-Maka 說: 「關鍵在於，人類並非唯一患病的人，幾千年來一直如此。我們正在徹底改變環境的方式，我們與野生動物和家養動物與之間是如何相連，這些都可能改變疾病進入我們社區的方法」;「如果你看到一隻死去的草原犬鼠，最好不要去碰它」。

              So, for thousands of years Black Death spread out by fleas had repeatedly struck ancient Eurasia. During the Bronze Age, however, Yersinia pestis had not yet developed the genetic tool kit that would allow later strains to be spread by fleas. Scientists have been baffled as to how the illness could have persisted at that time. Now, an international team of researchers has recovered the first ancient Yersinia pestis genome from a Bronze Age domesticated sheep that lived around 4,000 years ago. The discovery is leading scientists to believe that livestock has played a role in its spread throughout Eurasia. Apparently, the identification of the bacterial lineage in an animal has open new avenues for researching this disease’s evolution as well as the later lineage that caused the Black Death.

Note:

1. Yersinia pestis (Y. pestis) (耶爾森氏菌)is a gram-negative, non-motile, coccobacillus bacterium without spores. It is related to pathogens Yersinia enterocolitica, and Yersinia pseudotuberculosis, from which it evolved. Yersinia pestis is responsible for the disease plague, which caused the Plague of Justinian and the Black Death, one of the deadliest pandemics in recorded history. (Wikipedia)

2. Rodents (囓齒動物) refers to a diverse order of mammals characterized by two large incisors in the upper and lower jaws that continuously grow throughout their lives. They are commonly found in various habitats and are known for their ability to adapt to different environments.

債務危機下，中國恆大將從香港證券交易所除牌

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

China Evergrande to be delisted from Hong Kong stock exchange following debt woes

The Associated Press - Kanis Leung

Tue, August 12, 2025 at 7:06 a.m. PDT·4 min read

HONG KONG (AP) — The severely indebted real estate developer China Evergrande, already in the process of liquidation, said on Tuesday it will be delisted from Hong Kong’s stock exchange on Aug. 25, another setback to mainland China’s property sector.

Evergrande was the world’s most heavily indebted real estate developer, with over $300 billion owed to banks and bondholders, when the court handed down a liquidation order in January 2024. The court had ruled that the company had failed to provide a viable restructuring plan for its debts, which fueled fears about China’s rising debt burden, and trading of its shares has been halted since the ruling.

The city's rules stipulate that the listing of companies may be canceled if trading in their securities has remained suspended for 18 months consecutively.

China Evergrande Group received a letter Aug. 8 from the city's stock exchange notifying the firm of its decision to cancel the listing as trading had not resumed by Jul. 28. The last day of the listing will be Aug. 22 and Evergrande will not apply for a review of the decision, the company said in a statement.

“All shareholders, investors and potential investors of the company should note that after the last listing date, whilst the share certificates of the shares will remain valid, the shares will not be listed on, and will not be tradeable on the Stock Exchange," the statement said.

Evergrande is among scores of developers that defaulted on debts after Chinese regulators cracked down on excessive borrowing in the property industry in 2020. Unable to obtain financing, their vast obligations to creditors and customers became unsustainable.

The crackdown also tipped the property industry into crisis, dragging down the world’s second-largest economy and rattling financial systems in and outside China. Once among the nation's strongest growth engines, the industry is struggling to exit a prolonged downturn. Home prices in China have continued to fall even after the introduction of supportive measures by policymakers.

The Hong Kong court system has been dealing with liquidation petitions against some Chinese property developers, including one of the largest Chinese real estate companies, Country Garden, which is expected to have another hearing in January.

China South City Holdings, a smaller property developer, was also ordered to liquidate on Monday.

Evergrande, founded in the mid-1990s by Hui Ka Yan, also known as Xu Jiayin, had over 90% of its assets on the Chinese mainland, according to the 2024 ruling. The firm was listed in Hong Kong in 2009 as “Evergrande Real Estate Group” and suspended its share trading on Jan. 29, 2024, at 0.16 Hong Kong dollars ($0.02).

Its liquidators said in a progress report that they received debt claims totalling $45 billion as of Jul. 31, much higher than the some $27.5 billion of liabilities disclosed in December 2022, and that the new figure was not final.

The liquidators said they have assumed control of over 100 companies within the group and entities under their direct management control with collective assets valued at $3.5 billion as of Jan. 29, 2024. They said an estimate of the amounts that may ultimately be realized from these entities wasn't available yet.

About $255 million worth of assets have been sold, the liquidators said, calling the realization “modest." Of this amount, $244 million was derived from subsidiaries’ assets, and not all of them will be available to the company, given the complex ownership structures of the assets.

“The liquidators believe that a holistic restructuring will prove out of reach, but they will, of course, explore any credible possibilities in this regard that may present themselves,” they said.

Hui, Evergrande's founder, was detained in China in September 2023 on suspicion of committing crimes, adding to the company’s woes.

In 2024, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued a fine of 4.2 billion yuan (about $584 million) against the firm's subsidiary, Hengda Real Estate Group Company, over violations including falsifying financial records. Hui was fined 47 million yuan ($6.5 million) and barred from China’s securities markets for life. Some other executives were also penalised.

Chinese authorities in September 2024 banned the accounting firm PwC for six months and fined the company more than 400 million yuan ($56.4 million) over its involvement in the audit of the collapsed property developer.

Translation

債務危機下，中國恆大將從香港證券交易所除牌

香港（美聯社）— 負債累累的房地產開發商中國恆大周二宣布，將於8月25日從香港證券交易所除牌。該公司先前已進入清盤程序。這無疑是中國內地房地產產業的另一個挫折。

2024年1月，法院下達清盤令時，恆大是全球負債最重的房地產開發商，欠銀行和債券持有人的債務超過 3,000億美元。法院裁定恆大未能提供可行的債務重整計劃，這加劇了人們對中國債務負擔不斷加重的擔憂，自該裁決發布以來，恆大已暫停股票交易。

根據香港交易所規定，如果公司股票連續停牌18個月，其上市地位可能被取消。

中國恆大集團於8月8日收到香港證券交易所的函件，通知該公司因股票交易未能在7月28日前恢復，決定取消其上市地位。該公司在聲明中表示，上市最後期限為8月22日，恆大不會就該決定申請覆核。

聲明稱： “所有公司股東、投資者和潛在投資者應注意，在最後上市日期之後，雖然股票證書仍然有效，但股票將不再在香港證券交易所上市，也不能在香港證券交易所交易。”

恆大是2020年中國監管機構嚴厲打擊房地產行業過度借貸後，眾多拖欠債務的開發商之一。由於無法獲得融資，他們對債權人和客戶的巨額債去履行義務變得不可持續。

這次整治行動也使房地產業陷入危機，拖累了世界第二大經濟體，並擾亂了國內外的金融體系。房地產業曾是中國最強勁的成長引擎之一，如今正艱難地擺脫長期低迷。即使政策制定者推出扶持措施後，中國房價仍在持續下跌。

香港法院系統一直在處理針對一些中國房地產開發商的清盤申請，其中包括中國最大的房地產公司之一碧桂園，預計該公司將於1月再次開庭審理。

規模較小的房地產開發商華南城控股也在周一被勒令清盤。

根據2024年的裁決，恆大地產由許家印（ Xu Jiayin）於1990年代中期創立，其超過90%的資產位於中國大陸。該公司於2009年以「恆大地產集團」的名稱在香港上市，並於2024年1月29日以每股0.16港元（0.02美元）的價格停牌。

其清盤人在進度報告中表示，截至7月31日，他們收到的債務總額達450億美元，遠高於2022年12月披露的約275億美元的負債，且新的數字並非最終數字。

清盤人表示，截至2024年1月29日，他們已控制集團內100多家公司及其直接管理的實體，這些實體的總資產價值為35億美元。他們表示，目前尚無法估算這些實體最終可能變成現金的数字。

清盤人表示，已出售價值約2.55億美元的資產，並稱兑現金額「適中」。其中2.44億美元來自子公司資產，鑑於這些資產的所有權結構複雜，公司無法全部動用這些資產。

他們說: 「清盤人認為，整體重組難以實現，但他們當然會探索任何可能出現的可靠方案」。

恆大創始人許家印於2023年9月因涉嫌犯罪在中國被拘留，加劇了公司的困境。

2024年，證監會對恆大旗下子公司恆大地產集團公司處以42億元人民幣（約5.84億美元）的罰款，原因是其存在偽造財務記錄等違規行為。許家印被罰款4700萬元人民幣（約650萬美元），並被終身禁止進入中國證券市場。其他一些高管也受到了處罰。

2024 年 9 月，中國當局因羅兵咸永道會計師事務所參與對這家倒閉的房地產開發商的審計，禁止該事務所開展業務六個月，並對其處以超過 4 億元人民幣（5,640 萬美元）的罰款。

              So, China Evergrande, already in the process of liquidation, will soon be delisted from Hong Kong’s stock exchange and thus becomes another setback to mainland China’s property sector. It is interesting to note that this company’s auditing was done by PwC and the Chinese authorities in September 2024 had fined this company more than $56.4 million over its involvement in the auditing of this company.

Nikkei Stock Average Closes at ¥42,718, a New Record High. Why? What's Next? (2/2)

 Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

日経平均株価 終値4万2718円 史上最高値更新 なぜ？ 今後は？(2/2)

2025年8月12日 18時52分

(continue)

専門家「プラス要因が関税のマイナス要因を相殺か」

日経平均株価が史上最高値を更新したことについて、みずほ証券の小林俊介チーフエコノミストは「アメリカの関税政策は最悪のシナリオは免れたものの、半年前に比べると非常に高い関税率が残ることになり、最高値を更新しているのは非常に不思議な部分だ。ただ、足もとの決算を見ると、値上げをしっかり行って利益を増やす企業やAI特需があるなどプラスの要因が重なる状況となっている。そうしたプラスの要因が関税によるマイナス要因を相殺して最高値を更新したのではないか」と分析しています。

また「株価は高値となっているが、本当にそれに見合うような業績が付いてくるのか、投資家は半信半疑の状況にあると思う。半信半疑だからこそ、上昇したときにあとから追いかけるように買う人たちが出てきて株価が上昇するのではないか」と指摘しています。

そのうえで、今後の株価の見通しについて、小林チーフエコノミストは「急速な株価の上昇はどこかで止まると思っている。それから先は、企業の業績がまだ伸びるのかどうかや、関税の影響が価格転嫁の形で出てきても景気は失速しないのかが日米、世界に対して問われてくるし、米中の関税協議の結果にも注目が集まる。実体経済、関税交渉、そして日米を中心とした金融政策が今後の重要な材料になってくる」と指摘しています。

 

株価上昇 今後は？

市場関係者の多くは今後も株価の上昇傾向が続くかどうかは、アメリカの経済情勢がカギを握っていると見ています。

関税措置による高インフレや景気減速への警戒感がありますが、市場関係者の間ではこれまでに発表されたアメリカの経済指標には関税措置の影響がまだ鮮明にあらわれていないという見方も出ています。

アメリカの経済情勢は世界経済、そして世界の金融市場への影響も大きいだけに、これから発表される経済指標の内容やFRB＝連邦準備制度理事会が景気の現状をどう分析するのかに市場の関心が集まっています。

 

関税が揺さぶった東京市場

ことしに入り東京市場の株価はアメリカのトランプ大統領によるいわゆる「トランプ関税」に揺さぶられてきました。

ことし初めの日経平均株価は、トランプ大統領の政策への期待感から関連する銘柄を積極的に買う「トランプトレード」に支えられ、4万円に近い高い水準でスタートしました。

しかし、トランプ大統領が正式に就任して以降、「トランプ関税」をめぐる動きに株価は大きく反応します。

2月以降、トランプ大統領がメキシコやカナダ、中国に対する関税措置、また鉄鋼やアルミへの関税などに言及するたびに世界経済が打撃を受けるという懸念が強まり、東京市場もたびたび大幅な下落に見舞われました。

そして4月2日、トランプ大統領が世界各国への相互関税を発表し、ただちに中国が報復関税に踏み切ると、米中貿易摩擦への警戒感が一気に高まり、世界の株式市場が軒並み株安に見舞われる「世界同時株安」の様相となりました。

なかでも4月7日の日経平均株価は2644円と過去3番目に大きい下落となり、3万1000円台まで下落しました。

ところが、アメリカで株安、ドル安、債券安の「トリプル安」が進むとトランプ大統領は一転、相互関税の一時停止を発表。

そして、100％を超える高い関税をかけ合っていた米中が関税の引き下げで合意すると投資家の懸念は一気に和らぎ、これを機に株価は上昇傾向に転じます。

さらに「トランプ大統領は高い関税率を突きつけても最後は柔軟に対応する」という投資家の楽観的な見方も支えとなり、日本ではとくに海外投資家による積極的な買いが続きました。

そして先月23日には最大の課題だった日米の関税交渉が合意。当初は大統領令に合意内容が反映されていませんでしたが、アメリカ側から修正の意向が示されると株価は一段と押し上げられ、日経平均株価はおよそ1年ぶりに史上最高値を更新しました。

Translation

Nikkei Stock Average Closes at ¥42,718, Reaches New All-Time High. Why? What's Next? (2/2)

August 12, 2025, 6:52 PM

(continue)

Expert: "Positive Factors May Offset the Negative Impact of Tariffs"

Regarding the Nikkei Stock Average's record high, Mizuho Securities Chief Economist Shunsuke Kobayashi (小林俊介) analyzed, "While the worst-case scenario for the U.S. tariff policy has been avoided, tariff rates remain significantly higher than they were six months ago, making it very strange that it has reached a new all-time high. However, looking at recent financial results, we see a combination of positive factors, such as companies steadily increasing profits through price hikes and a surge in demand for AI. These positive factors likely offset the negative impact of tariffs, leading to the record high."

He also pointed out, "Stock prices are high, but I think investors are skeptical about whether the resulting performance will really justify that. It's precisely because of this skepticism that when stock prices rise, people will chase them and start to buy them, causing stock prices to rise."

Regarding the outlook for stock prices, Chief Economist Kobayashi pointed out that "I think the rapid rise in stock prices will come to a halt at some point. From there onward, whether the company's performance will continue to grow, and will the economy still slow down even if the impact of tariffs is passed on to prices? These will be questioned by Japan, the US, and the world, and attention will also be focused on the outcome of the US-China tariff negotiations. The real economy, tariff negotiations, and monetary policy centered on Japan and the United States will be important factors in the future.”

Rising Stock Prices: What's Next?

Many market participants saw that the state of the US economy held the key to whether stock prices would continue to rise.

While there was concern about high inflation and an economic slowdown due to tariffs, some market participants pointed out that the impact of the tariffs as reflected in the US economic indicators had not yet clearly emerged.

Given the U.S. economic situation has significant impact on the global economy and on global financial markets, market attention was focused on upcoming economic indicators and on how the Federal Reserve would analyze the current economic situation.

Tariffs Shake the Tokyo Market

Since the beginning of this year, stock prices on the Tokyo market had been shaken by the so-called "Trump tariffs" imposed by U.S. President Trump.

The Nikkei Stock Average began the year at a high level of nearly 40,000 yen, supported by the "Trump trade," in which investors actively bought stocks related to President Trump's policies in response to expectations.

However, since President Trump officially took office, stock prices reacted significantly to developments surrounding the "Trump tariffs."

Since February, whenever President Trump mentioned tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, or tariffs on steel and aluminum, concerns about a negative impact on the global economy grew, and the Tokyo market again and again suffered significant declines.

Then, on April 2nd, President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on countries around the world, and China immediately imposed retaliatory tariffs. This led to a sudden rise in concerns about US-China trade friction, and stock markets around the world fell across the board, resulting in a "global stock market crash."

Among them, the Nikkei average on April 7 fell to 2,644 yen, its third-largest drop ever, dropping to the 31,000-yen range.

However, as the US experienced a "triple decline" of falling stocks, the dollar, and bonds, President Trump made a complete change and announced a temporary suspension of the reciprocal tariffs.

Then, when the US and China, which had been imposing high tariffs of over 100% on each other, agreed to lower tariffs, investor concerns immediately eased, and this was an opportunity for stock prices to rise.

Furthermore, investor optimism that "President Trump will ultimately be flexible, even if he imposes high tariffs," also supported continued aggressive buying in Japan, especially among foreign investors.

Then, on the 23rd of last month, an agreement was reached on the tariff negotiations between Japan and the US, the biggest issue on the agenda. Initially, the contents of the agreement were not made clear in the presidential order, but when the US side indicated its intention to correct it, stock prices rose further, and the Nikkei Stock Average reached its highest level in about a year.

              So, Japan has witnessed a surge in buy orders for export-related stocks such as automobiles as uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff measures eased. The rise in stock prices is due to the fact that the key points of the Japan-U.S. agreement has been made known thus reducing uncertainty about the future. Despite the optimistic mood, investors remain wary that the tariff measures may lead to high inflation in the U.S. and slowdown its economy. Amid this, there is a trend toward diversifying investments to Japan and other locations to avoid concentrating them in the U.S. Apparently, the US tariff war is changing the flow of global stock markets.

Nikkei Stock Average Closes at ¥42,718, a New Record High. Why? What's Next? (1/2)

 Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

日経平均株価 終値4万2718円 史上最高値更新 なぜ？ 今後は？(1/2)

2025年8月12日 18時52分

連休明けの12日の東京株式市場、アメリカの関税措置をめぐる不透明感が薄らいだとして自動車など輸出関連の銘柄に多くの買い注文が入り、日経平均株価は4万2718円で取り引きを終え、終値の史上最高値を更新しました。

取引時間中も史上最高値更新 4万2999円71銭

連休明けの12日の東京株式市場は、自動車などの輸出関連銘柄に買い注文が入り、日経平均株価は取り引きが始まって15分ほどで去年7月につけた取引時間中の史上最高値を更新しました。

さらに午後に入ってからも積極的な買い注文が続き、日経平均株価は4万2999円71銭まで上昇し、史上最高値をさらに更新しました。

 

その後は利益を確保しようという売り注文も出ましたが、結局、日経平均株価は先週末の終値と比べて897円69銭高い4万2718円17銭で取り引きを終え、終値の史上最高値も更新しました。

▽東証株価指数＝トピックスは42.16上がって3066.37。

▽1日の出来高は27億8177万株。

株価が上昇したのは、アメリカの関税措置をめぐり先の日米合意の内容が反映されるという見方が広がって先行きの不透明感が薄らいだことに加え、アメリカが中国の輸入品に対する追加関税の一部の停止期限を延長すると発表したことで、米中の貿易摩擦への懸念が和らいだことなどが要因です。

一方、アメリカの関税措置で日本の自動車メーカーが減益や赤字になるなど、企業業績への影響が明らかになる中での株価上昇には過熱感があるといった指摘も出ています。

市場関係者は「これから関税措置の影響がアメリカ経済にどのような形であらわれるのかに投資家の関心が集まっている。今後発表される経済指標の内容が株価を左右する展開も予想される」と話しています。

注目

最高値更新の背景は？

アメリカの関税措置に対する不透明感が薄れたことで株価が上昇した東京市場。

市場関係者からはそのほかの要因もあがっています。

要因1. 《市場の楽観的なムード》

ことし4月、アメリカのトランプ大統領が相互関税を打ち出した際、投資家の間では世界経済の先行きに対する懸念が強まり、世界の株式市場が同時株安に見舞われました。

しかし、100％を超える高い関税をかけ合っていたアメリカと中国が関税の引き下げで合意するなど、深刻な事態が回避される中で投資家の間では「トランプ大統領は高い関税率を突きつけても最後は柔軟な姿勢を示す」といった見方が出ています。

こうしたいわば楽観的な見方にもとづく市場の取り引きは、アメリカのトランプ大統領はいつも尻込みするという意味の「Trump AlwaysChickensOut」を略した「TACOトレード」と呼ばれ、関税措置で先行きが不透明な状況でも積極的な買いを支えていると見られています。

要因2. 《アメリカから日本への投資マネーの流入》

楽観的なムードがある一方、投資家の間では関税措置によってアメリカ経済が高いインフレに見舞われ、景気が減速するのではないかといった警戒感が根強くあります。

こうした中、投資先がアメリカに集中しないよう日本などに分散させる動きが出ていたという指摘が出ています。

世界の投資マネーの動向を調べている民間の調査会社は、資産運用会社や機関投資家などがアメリカでの投資を減らす一方、日本やヨーロッパでの投資を増やしていると分析。こうしたマネーの流れが日本を含めてアジアやヨーロッパ各国でのこれまでの株高につながっていたとみられています。

(to be continued)

Translation

Nikkei Stock Average Closes at ¥42,718, a New Record High. Why? What's Next? (1/2)

On the 12th, the Tokyo Stock Exchange, after the long holiday, saw a surge in buy orders for export-related stocks such as automobiles as uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff measures eased. The Nikkei Stock Average closed at ¥42,718, a new record closing price.

Also saw a new record high during trading hours: ¥42,999.71

On the 12th, the Tokyo Stock Exchange, after the long holiday, saw a surge in buy orders for export-related stocks such as automobiles. Within 15 minutes of trading, the Nikkei Stock Average surpassed its all-time intraday high set last July.

Furthermore, aggressive buy orders continued into the afternoon, pushing the Nikkei Stock Average to ¥42,999.71, further breaking its all-time high.

Although some sell orders were subsequently made by investors seeking to lock in profits, the Nikkei Stock Average ultimately closed at 42,718.17 yen, up 897.69 yen from last week's closing price and setting a new all-time closing high.

▽The Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) rose 42.16 points to 3,066.37.

▽Daily trading volume was 2.78177 billion shares.

The rise in stock prices was due to the fact that there were growing expectations regarding the content of the recent Japan-U.S. agreement on America's tariff measures were being made known thus reducing uncertainty about the future. In addition, concerns about US-China trade friction eased after the US announced it would extend the suspension of some additional tariffs on Chinese imports.

On the other hand, some had pointed out that the rise in stock prices was overheating amid the growing impact on corporate performance, with Japanese automakers seeing reduced profits and even losses due to the US tariffs.

Market participants commented, " Investor interest is growing on impacts of tariff measures will manifest in the U.S. economy from now on. The content of economic indicators to be announced in the future is expected to influence stock prices."

Observation

What's Behind the New High?

Stock prices in the Tokyo market rose as uncertainty surrounding the U.S. tariffs eased.

Market participants also cited other factors.

Factor 1: Market Optimism

When U.S. President Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs in April this year, investors became increasingly concerned about the outlook for the global economy, leading to a synchronized selloff in global stock markets.

However, the United States and China, which had been imposing high tariffs of over 100% on each other, had now agreed to lower tariffs etc., a serious situation was averted. Among the investors were now held the view that "President Trump will ultimately show flexibility, even if he confronts you with high tariffs."

These market trade so to speak were believed to be based on the optimism, known in abbreviation as the "TACO trade" with TACO stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out," a reference to President Trump's constant hesitation, it supported aggressive buying even amid the uncertainty surrounding the tariff measures.

Factor 2: Inflow of Investment Money from the United States to Japan

Despite the optimistic mood, investors remained wary that the tariff measures could lead to high inflation and a slowdown in the U.S. economy.

Amid this, some had pointed out that there was a trend toward diversifying investments to Japan and other locations to avoid concentrating them in the U.S.

A private research firm which tracked global investment trends had analyzed and found that asset management companies and institutional investors were reducing their investments in the U.S. while increasing them in Japan and Europe. This flow of money was believed to have led to the recent rise in stock prices in Asia, Europe, and Japan.

(to be continued)

New Study: Lithium May Prevent Alzheimer's Disease in Aging Brains

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

高齢の脳、リチウムでアルツハイマー病防げる可能性　新研究

2025.08.08 Fri posted at 16:30 JST

（ＣＮＮ） ほぼ１０年がかりの大規模な調査の中で、ハーバード大学医科大学院の研究者らがアルツハイマー病と脳の老化に関する多くの謎を解く可能性のある一つの鍵を発見したと主張している。その鍵とはごく平凡な金属、リチウムだ。

リチウムと言えば、医療の世界では気分安定剤として非常によく知られる。双極性障害やうつ病の患者がこれを服用する。米食品医薬品局（ＦＤＡ）がリチウムを承認したのは１９７０年だが、医師らはそれよりも１００年近く前から気分障害の治療に使用していた。

今回、研究者らは初めて微量のリチウムが体内に自然と存在することを明らかにした。細胞が正常に機能するにはリチウムが必要で、その点ではビタミンＣや鉄分に非常に近い。また脳の健康維持にも極めて重要な役割を果たしていると考えられる。

６日付の科学誌ネイチャーが伝えた一連の実験の中で、ハーバード大とラッシュ大の研究者らは、リチウムを大幅に減らした餌を与えた正常なマウスの脳が炎症を起こすのを突き止めた。老化の加速に関係する変化も発生したとしている。

特別な餌を与え、アルツハイマー病を患った人間と同種の変化が脳に及ぶようにしたマウスの場合、粘着性のあるたんぱく質の蓄積が加速した。これにより脳内でプラーク（斑）や繊維状の塊を形成するのがアルツハイマー病の特徴で、記憶力の低下にも拍車が掛かるという。

一方で正常なリチウムレベルを維持したマウスの場合は、年を取ってもアルツハイマー病と関係のある脳の変化を防ぐことができた。

より詳しい研究で今回の結果が裏付けられれば、アルツハイマー病の新たな治療や診断に向けた扉が開けるかもしれない。米疾病対策センター（ＣＤＣ）によれば、米国では推計で高齢の成人６７０万人がアルツハイマー病を患っている。

今回の研究で人間と動物の脳細胞を詳しく検証し、遺伝子調査も行ったところ、進行中と思われるメカニズムが明らかになった。

アルツハイマー病患者の脳に蓄積するアミロイドベータプラークは、リチウムに結合し、それを抑え込む。通常体内に存在するリチウムにも、処方されたリチウムにもそうした作用が及ぶ。これにより近隣の細胞にとって利用可能なリチウムは枯渇する。脳内の重要な「掃除人」として知られる免疫細胞、ミクログリアに関しても同様だ。

脳が健康で正常に働いていれば、ミクログリアはアミロイドベータが蓄積し、害をもたらす前にこれを除去する。研究チームの実験において、リチウム不足のマウスの脳にいるミクログリアはアミロイドベータを除去、貪食する能力が低下していることが分かった。

ハーバード医科大学の遺伝学教授、ブルース・ヤンクナー博士は、これが悪循環を生み出すと考える。アミロイドベータの蓄積が一段と多くのリチウムを吸い上げ、それを除去する脳の能力がさらに失われていく。

ヤンクナー氏と同僚らは異なるリチウム化合物をテストし、オロチン酸リチウムがアミロイドベータに結合しないことを突き止めた。

脳にアルツハイマー病の兆候を示すマウスにオロチン酸リチウムを与えたところ、上記の変化は逆転。脳の記憶中枢を抑え込んでいたアミロイドベータと神経原線維変化は減少した。リチウムを与えられたマウスは、再び迷路を進むことができるようになり、新しい物体の認識が可能になった。一方、プラセボ（偽薬）を与えられたマウスには、記憶と思考の欠如に変化は見られなかった。

リチウムは自然界に存在する金属元素で、食物や水にも含まれる。

リチウムで気分が改善する仕組みは分かっていないが、リチウムをふんだんに含んだ温泉は治癒力があるとして、健康志向の人々が好んで訪れる。

一方で処方されたリチウムを服用することで、甲状腺や腎臓に有害な影響が生じる場合もある。

低用量のオロチン酸リチウムを与えられた上記のマウスに、そうした健康被害の兆候は現れなかった。しかし、マウスと人間は違うとヤンクナー氏は指摘。人間でも同じ結果を再現し、服用に適した用量を見極める必要があるとした。

ヤンクナー氏によると、通常人間の体内に存在するリチウムや今回マウスに与えられたリチウムの量は、双極性障害の治療で処方される量の１０００分の１だという。

今回の研究は、アルツハイマー病に対するリチウムの効能を示唆した過去の研究を裏付けるものとなる。２０１７年に発表されたデンマークでの大規模な研究では、高レベルのリチウムを含む飲料水を摂取する人々は、通常の低レベルのリチウムを含んだ水道水を飲む人々と比較して認知症の診断を受ける確率が低いことが分かった。

２２年に発表された英国での大規模研究でも、リチウムを処方された人々は対照群よりもアルツハイマー病の診断を受ける公算が半分に低下するとの結果が出ており、リチウムの持つ予防効果が示唆されていた。

Translation

New Study: Lithium May Prevent Alzheimer's Disease in Aging Brains

(CNN) After nearly a decade of extensive research, researchers at Harvard Medical School claimed to have discovered a key that might unlock many mysteries surrounding Alzheimer's disease and brain aging. That key was a very ordinary metal: lithium.

Lithium was best known in the medical world as a mood stabilizer, taken by patients with bipolar disorder and depression. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved lithium in 1970, but doctors had been using it to treat mood disorders for nearly 100 years ago.

Researchers had now, for the first time, demonstrated that trace amount of lithium existed naturally in the body. Cells required lithium for proper functioning, much like vitamin C and iron. It also appeared to play a crucial role in maintaining brain health.

In a series of experiments reported in the scientific journal Nature on the 6th, researchers from Harvard and Rush University found that normal mice fed a diet significantly reduced in lithium would develop brain inflammation. They also experienced changes associated with accelerated aging.

Mice fed with such a special diet experienced accelerated accumulation of sticky proteins that caused brain changes that were similar to those seen in humans with Alzheimer's disease. This led to the formation of plaques and fibrous masses in the brain which was a hallmark of Alzheimer's disease and accelerated memory decline.

Mice that maintained normal lithium levels, on the other hand, were able to avoid brain changes associated with Alzheimer's disease as they aged.

If these findings were confirmed through further research, they could open the door to new treatments and diagnostics for Alzheimer's disease. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), an estimated 6.7 million older adults in the United States suffered from Alzheimer's disease.

During the process of this study which examined human and animal brain cells in detail that included genetic studies, a working mechanism thought to be in progress was revealed.

Amyloid beta plaques that accumulated in the brains of Alzheimer's disease patients bound to lithium and thus suppressed. This also applied to lithium normally present in the body and also to those prescribed lithium. This binding depleted the lithium available to nearby cells. The same was true for microglia, the immune cells known as the brain's key "cleaners."

When the brain was healthy and functioning properly, microglia accumulated amyloid beta, eliminated it before it caused harm. In the research team's experiments, microglia in the brains of lithium-deficient mice removed amyloid beta, yet it was found that its ability to devour had declined.

Dr. Bruce Yankner, professor of genetics at Harvard Medical School, believed this had created a vicious cycle. The accumulation of amyloid beta absorbed even more lithium, the brain's ability to remove it was further lost.

Yankner and his colleagues tested different lithium compounds and found that lithium orotate did not bind to amyloid beta.

When mice that showed signs of Alzheimer's disease were given lithium orotate, the above changes were reversed. Amyloid-beta and neurofibrillary tangles, which had suppressed the brain's memory center, decreased. Mice that were given lithium were able to navigate mazes again, and could recognize new objects. Meanwhile, mice given a placebo (fake drug) showed no change in their memory and thinking deficits.

Lithium was a metallic element that existed naturally and could be found in food and water.

While the working mechanism by which lithium improved mood was unknown, lithium-rich hot springs were popular among health-conscious people for their therapeutic properties.

Prescription lithium, however, could have harmful effects on the thyroid and kidneys.

The mice given low doses of lithium orotate showed no signs of these health problems. However, Yankner pointed out that mice and human were different. It was necessary for human to reproduce the same results and to determine the appropriate dosage.

Yankner said the amount of lithium normally found in the human body and the amount given to the mice in this study was 1/1000th of the amount prescribed for the treatment of bipolar disorder.

This study supported previous research suggesting lithium's effectiveness in treating Alzheimer's disease.  A large-scale study in Denmark published in 2017 found that people who consumed drinking water with high levels of lithium were less likely to be diagnosed with dementia compared to those who drank tap water typically with low level of lithium.

A large-scale UK study published in 2022 also found that people prescribed lithium were half as likely to be diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease as the control group, suggesting lithium's preventive effects.

              So, researchers have demonstrated that a very small amount of lithium exists naturally in the body. Cells require lithium for proper functioning, much like vitamin C and iron. It also appears to play a crucial role in maintaining brain health. Mice that maintain normal lithium levels are able to avoid brain changes associated with Alzheimer's disease as they aged. Yet mice and human are different and apparently further studies are needed.

Note:

1. Dr. Bruce A. Yankner is a Professor of Genetics and Neurology at Harvard Medical School. He also serves as the Director of the Harvard Neurodegeneration Training Program and is the Co-Director of the Paul F. Glenn Center for the Biology of Aging. (Sider Fusion)

經過 Sam Altman 多年的炒作宣傳，OpenAI 的 GPT-5 終於正式上線並免費向所有人開放 - 以下是它的功能

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

OpenAI's GPT-5 is live and free for all after years of hype by Sam Altman. Here's what it can do.

Business Insider - Lakshmi Varanasi,Brent D. Griffiths,Jyoti Mann,Robert Scammell

Updated Thu, August 7, 2025 at 11:40 a.m. PDT·3 min read

After weeks of relentless hype, GPT-5 is finally here.

OpenAI officially released the highly anticipated new model on Thursday. It's the latest version of ChatGPT, the company's flagship chatbot, and the most widely used AI model on the market.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman called it a "major upgrade" and "a significant step along the path of AGI" in a conference call with journalists on Wednesday. He said that after using GPT-5, going back to GPT-4 was "miserable."

OpenAI says the model will be available for free for everyone and that users will no longer need to switch between previous models for different tasks. GPT-5 will switch automatically, the company said, depending on the kind of request and its complexity. GPT-5 will be available in standard, mini, and nano versions. Paid users will have higher usage limits.

Altman said GPT-5 was also the company's fastest model yet.

"One of the things I had been pushing the team on was like, 'Hey, we need to make it way, way faster,'" Altman said. "And I now have this experience of like, 'Are you sure you thought enough?'"

The team said GPT-5 will have improved capabilities for vibe coding, the latest craze in Silicon Valley.

OpenAI has been teasing this next iteration of ChatGPT for over a year, but has ramped up the chatter in the last few days and weeks. On Sunday, Altman shared a screenshot of GPT-5 on X, asking the model to recommend the "most thought-provoking" TV show about AI.

In July, Altman said that "GPT-5 is smarter than us in almost every way." Speaking to podcaster Theo Von, Altman said he asked GPT-5 a question he "didn't quite understand" and it "answered it perfectly," making him feel "useless relative to the AI."

The OpenAI CEO also likened GPT-5's development to the Manhattan Project, the US government's effort to build the atomic bomb during World War II, and said that it made him feel nervous.

"There are moments in the history of science, where you have a group of scientists look at their creation and just say, you know: 'What have we done?'" Altman said.

OpenAI's last notable model launch was GPT-4.5 in February, which Altman described at the time as "the first model that feels like talking to a thoughtful person."

The release of GPT-5 has faced several delays, with the timeline shifting from mid-2024 to mid-2025, to August.

During that time, the number of ChatGPT users has continued to grow. In April, Altman said ChatGPT had 500 million weekly active users. OpenAI said on Thursday that ChatGPT is now on track to hit 700 million weekly active users "this week."

Translation

經過 Sam Altman 多年的炒作宣傳，OpenAI 的 GPT-5 終於正式上線並免費向所有人開放 - 以下是它的功能

經過數週的持續宣傳，GPT-5 終於來了。

OpenAI 於週四正式發布了備受期待的新模型。這是該公司旗艦聊天機器人 ChatGPT 的最新版本，也是市場上最廣泛使用的 AI 模型。

OpenAI 執行長 Sam Altman 在周三與記者的電話會議上稱其為一次「重大升級」和「在通用人工智慧 (AGI) 道路上邁出的重要一步」。他表示，在使用 GPT-5 之後，回到 GPT-4 感覺「很悲」。

OpenAI 表示，該模型將免費向所有人開放，用戶無需再在不同任務之間切換先前的模型。該公司表示，GPT-5 將根據請求的類型及其複雜程度自動切換。 GPT-5 將提供標準版、迷你版和奈米版。付費用戶將有更少的使用限制。

Altman 表示，GPT-5 也是該公司迄今為止速度最快的模型。

Altman 說: 「我一直督促團隊的事情之一是，『嘿，我們需要令它大幅提速』」; 「我現在有類似這樣的經歷:’您確定認為已經夠了嗎？’ 」

團隊表示，GPT-5 將改善對氛圍編碼（矽谷最新熱潮）的功能。

OpenAI 一年多來一直在預告 ChatGPT 的下一代版本，但在最近幾天和幾週內，它的熱度有所提升。週日，Altman 在 X 上分享了 GPT-5 的截圖，要求該模型推薦一部「最發人深省」的 AI 電視節目。

今年 7 月，Altman 表示「GPT-5 幾乎在所有方面都比我們聰明」。Altman 在接受播客 Theo Von 採訪時表示他向 GPT-5 提出了一個 “不太理解”的問題，而 GPT-5 “完美地回答了”，這讓他覺得自己 “在相比 AI 之下一無是處”。

這位 OpenAI 執行長也將 GPT-5 的開發比作曼哈頓計劃（二戰期間美國政府為製造原子彈所做的努力），並表示這讓他感到緊張。

Altman 說: 「在科學史上，總有那麼一刻，一群科學家看著他們的成果，然後問：『我們做了什麼？』」。

OpenAI 上一次值得關注的模型發佈是 2 月份的 GPT-4.5，Altman 當時將其描述為「第一個感覺像在與一位深思熟慮的人交談的模型」。

GPT-5 的發布經歷了幾次延期，時間表從 2024 年中期推遲到 2025 年中期，最終推遲到 8 月。

在此期間，ChatGPT 的用戶數量持續增長。今年 4 月，Altman 表示 ChatGPT 的每周活躍用戶已達 5 億。 OpenAI 週四表示，ChatGPT 預計將在「本週」達到 7 億每週活躍用戶。

              So, OpenAI has officially released the highly anticipated new model. Recently, the number of ChatGPT users continues to grow. In April, Altman said ChatGPT had 500 million weekly active users. Recently, it is on track to hit 700 million weekly active users. Apparently, ChatGPT is gaining popularity in these days.

Note:

1. Vibe coding (氛圍編碼)is an artificial intelligence-assisted software development style popularized by Andrej Karpathy in February 2025.The term was listed in the Merriam-Webster Dictionary the following month as a "slang & trending" term. It describes a chatbot-based approach to creating software where the developer describes a project or task to a large language model (LLM), which generates code based on the prompt. Unlike traditional AI-assisted coding or pair programming, the human developer avoids micromanaging the code, accepts AI-suggested completions liberally, and focuses more on iterative experimentation than code correctness or structure. (Wikipedia)

「關稅開始產生影響」：最新通膨和就業數據引發華爾街對美國經濟的擔憂

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

'Tariffs are starting to bite': Latest inflation, jobs data sparks Wall Street concern over US economy

Yahoo Finance - Allie Canal Senior Reporter

Sun, August 3, 2025 at 6:00 a.m. PDT·4 min read

Stocks have continued to notch record highs this year as investors bet on a resilient economy and minimal fallout from tariff-driven inflation. But last week, both assumptions came under pressure.

It was a packed week for economic data, offering a more nuanced and, in some cases, sobering look at the state of the US economy. The week kicked off with signs of strain in the labor market: The hiring rate fell to a seven-month low, and the quits rate, a key measure of worker confidence, dropped to just 2%.

On Wednesday, GDP data showed the economy rebounded at a 3% annualized pace in the second quarter, recovering from a surprise Q1 contraction driven by a pre-tariff surge in imports. But economists cautioned that the headline growth masked underlying softness. Sales to private domestic purchasers, a key proxy for consumer and business demand, rose just 1.2%, the weakest pace since 2022.

Greg Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, called the rebound an "economic mirage," adding that policy uncertainty, rising inflation pressures from tariffs, and tighter immigration constraints are starting to weigh more visibly on economic activity.

Then, after the Fed held interest rates steady, Thursday's release of its preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, showed price increases accelerated in June as inflation remained above the Fed's 2% target. Consumer spending also showed signs of strain as real personal spending rose just 0.1% in June following a revised 0.2% drop in May.

The week culminated in a disappointing July jobs report, which offered the clearest sign yet that the labor market may be cracking. The US added just 73,000 jobs, far short of the 104,000 forecast. Even more striking were sharp downward revisions to May and June, which erased a combined 258,000 jobs, the largest two-month downgrade since May 2020.

Taken in totality, last week's data painted a picture of mounting economic pressure, with growing signs that households are beginning to feel the strain as the second half of the year gets underway.

"Tariffs are starting to bite," EY's Daco told Yahoo Finance. "They're leading to higher inflationary pressures, which are curtailing consumer spending and prompting businesses to adopt more of a wait-and-see approach."

Michael Pearce, deputy chief US economist at Oxford Economics, said the overall trend is becoming clearer: "The signs are that consumer spending is losing momentum." He added that "as real income growth wanes, we expect an increasing drag on consumer spending, particularly on discretionary purchases and goods most exposed to tariff-driven price increases."

While auto sales had been front-loaded earlier this year ahead of tariff implementation, Pearce pointed to renewed declines in tariff-sensitive categories like furniture. He noted that any short-term lift from early buying is now "mostly in the rear-view mirror," and warned that consumers have yet to fully absorb the impact of tariff-driven shocks to income and purchasing power.

Adding to the pressure, trade tensions escalated as President Trump raised tariff rates on several US trading partners, including a surprise 39% levy on imports from Switzerland.

"There's a repeated refrain that tariffs are not having an impact, and that assessment misses the mark," Wells Fargo economists, led by Jay Bryson, said in the latest installment of Yahoo Finance's Chartbook series.

"Consumer spending is not as sturdy as it was initially reported in the first quarter," the team added. "With two months of data on hand for the second quarter, it is becoming increasingly clear that households are reducing their discretionary outlays."

The strain is also beginning to show in corporate earnings.

"When you take a look at companies like Whirlpool, like P&G, they are being impacted by tariffs," Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler, told Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid. "There seems to be a sort of bifurcation when it comes to how tariffs are impacting bottom lines. Those that are focused on products for consumers ... And then you've got other companies, like Big Tech, that is sort of immune to the tariff situation."

But even Big Tech is starting to feel the squeeze. Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook warned this week that the company expects a $1.1 billion tariff hit this quarter. Elsewhere, a slew of consumer-facing companies, including Shake Shack (SHAK), Canada Goose (GOOS), and snack maker Kellanova (K), have struggled this earnings season as price-sensitive shoppers pull back.

Translation

「關稅開始產生影響」：最新通膨和就業數據引發華爾街對美國經濟的擔憂

由於投資人押注經濟將維持韌性，關稅引發的通膨影響將微乎其微，今年股市持續創下歷史新高。但上週，這兩種假設都面臨壓力。

本週經濟數據密集，為美國經濟狀況提供了更細緻入微、在某些情況下甚至更令人警醒的視角。本週開始，勞動市場就出現了緊張的跡象：招聘率跌至七個月低點，而衡量工人信心的關鍵指標 - 離職率 - 則降至僅2%。

週三公佈的GDP數據顯示，美國經濟第二季以3%的年化速度反彈，從第一季受關稅前進口激增推動的意外萎縮中復甦。但經濟學家警告稱，整體成長掩蓋了潛在的疲軟。對國內私人買家的銷售, 是一個消費者和企業需求的重要指標, 僅成長1.2%，為2022年以來的最低成長速度。

EY-Parthenon 首席經濟學家 Greg Daco 稱這次反彈是“經濟海市蜃樓” ，並補充說，政策不確定性、關稅帶來的通膨壓力上升, 以及更嚴格的移民限制正開始對經濟活動產生更明顯的壓力。

隨後，在聯儲局維持利率穩定後，週四發布的其首選通膨指標的個人消費支出（PCE）指數顯示，6月物價上漲加速，通膨率仍高於聯儲局2%的目標。消費者支出也顯示出過勞的跡象，6月實際個人支出僅成長0.1%，而5月份經修正後是0.2%的下降。

本週以令人失望的7月就業報告收尾，該報告提供了迄今為止最清晰的跡象，表明勞動力市場可能正在崩潰。美國新增就業人數僅7.3萬個，遠低於預期的 10.4 萬個。更令人震驚的是，5月和6月就業機會大幅下調，共減少了25.8萬個就業崗位，這是自2020年5月以來最大的兩個月降幅。

總體而言，上週的數據描繪了一幅經濟壓力不斷上升的景象，越來越多的跡象表明，隨著下半年的到來，家庭開始感受到壓力。

“關稅開始產生影響” ，EY的Daco告訴雅虎財經。 “它們導致通膨壓力上升，從而抑制了消費者支出，並促使企業採取更多的觀望態度。”

牛津經濟研究院 (Oxford Economics) 副首席美國經濟學家 Michael Pearce表示，總體趨勢正變得更加清晰：「有跡象表明，消費者支出正在失去動力」。他補充道：「隨著實際收入增長放緩，我們預計消費者支出將受到越來越大的拖累，尤其是非必需品購買和最容易受到關稅驅動價格上漲影響的商品。」

儘管今年稍早汽車銷售在關稅實施前已提前上漲，但Pearce指出，家具等對關稅敏感的類別再次出現下滑。他指出，任何早期購買帶來的短期提振現在都 “基本上成為過去” ，並警告稱，消費者尚未完全消化關稅對收入和購買力衝擊的影響。

貿易緊張局勢進一步升級，特朗普總統提高了對多個美國貿易夥伴的關稅，其中包括對瑞士進口產品意外徵收39%的關稅，這加劇了貿易壓力。

以Jay Bryson為首的富國銀行經濟學家在雅虎財經“圖表手冊” 系列的最新一期中表示： “人們反覆強調關稅沒有產生影響，這種評估沒有抓到重點。”

該團隊補充道： “消費者支出並不像第一季最初報告的那樣強勁”; “根據目前掌握的第二季度兩個月數據，越來越明顯的是，家庭正在減少可自由支配的支出。”

企業獲利也開始顯現壓力。

Piper Sandler 首席投資策略師 Michael Kantrowitz 在接受雅虎財經「Opening Bid」專欄採訪時表示：「看看惠而浦、P&G等公司，它們都受到了關稅的影響。關稅對不同企業的底線影響似乎存在分別。我們有那些專注於為消費者提供產品的公司…我們有其他公司，例如大型科技，則基本不受關稅的影響。」

但即使是大型科技公司也開始感受到壓力。蘋果 (AAPL) 執行長 Tim Cook 本週警告稱，該公司預計本季將受到 11 億美元的關稅衝擊。此外，由於對價格敏感的消費者減少，包括 Shake Shack (SHAK)、加拿大鵝 (GOOS) 和零食製造商 Kellanova (K) 在內的一系列面向消費者的公司在本財報季都面對艱難。

 So, US stocks have continued to reach record highs this year as investors bet on a resilient economy and minimal fallout from tariff-driven inflation, but recently both assumptions are coming under pressure. Recent economic data are suggesting signs of strain in the labor market: The hiring rate fell to a seven-month low while the quits rate dropped to just 2%. Sales to private domestic purchasers rose just 1.2%, the weakest pace since 2022. Apparently, the US economy situation is facing uncertainty.