越南 VinFast 希望透過價格低於 10,000 美元的小型電動車來改變命運 (1/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Vietnam's VinFast looks to tiny EV, priced at less than $10,000, to change its fortunes (1/2)

AP -Aniruddha Ghosal

Tue, June 25, 2024 at 4:08 a.m. PDT·6 min read

HANOI, Vietnam (AP) — Vietnamese automaker VinFast, for a short time the third-most valuable car company in the world, has a big problem: It just can’t sell enough cars.

Idle factories bleed money and the company’s financial health is at stake. After finding the U.S. market a tough nut to crack, Vinfast is hoping its tiniest and cheapest car yet — a roughly 10-foot-long pure battery electric mini-SUV priced at $9,200 and called the VF3 — will become Vietnam’s “national car” and win over consumers in Asian markets.

Designed specifically for the Vietnamese and other Asian markets, the VF3 is priced for “mass appeal”, according to VinFast. It expects bigger sales for it than from earlier models that were meant mainly for export to western countries, Le Thi Thuy, Vingroup's chairperson, said in an earnings call in April.

VinFast was dreaming of breaking into the big leagues of global automakers when it launched sales in the U.S. last year and listed its shares on the Nasdaq, where its market value briefly surpassed those of General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. in late August.

Investor enthusiasm has since cooled, and its shares are trading below $4 from a peak of $82.35. VinFast is facing delays in construction of a $4 billion factory in North Carolina, where the company said in an email that it is reviewing and evaluating “all aspects of the construction process.” It's facing legal troubles over a crash that killed four people in California. It's also dealing with allegations of patent infringement.

VinFast’s future matters for Vietnam, both because its ambitions dovetail with the Communist Party’s own goals, and because of parent company Vingroup's large role in the Vietnamese economy. The conglomerate began as an instant noodle company in Ukraine in 1990s and now runs all sorts of businesses.

VinFast reported a net loss of $2.39 billion last year, despite a 90% increase in revenue. To patch its tattered finances, Vingroup recently sold its profitable commercial property arm, Vincom Retail. Vingroup's founder, Pham Nhat Vuong, has committed $1 billion of his personal wealth, on top of the $11.4 billion of financing the parent company injected into VinFast in 2017-2023, according to a filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

“We will never let VinFast go,” he told Vingroup shareholders at their annual general meeting in April, according to state media.

The VF3 initially will be sold in emerging markets in Asia, where car buyers graduating from motorcycles to four-wheelers might not be as finnicky as Americans, said Tu Le, the founder of the consultancy Sino Auto Insights.

Just 3.1-meters-long, and 1.6 meters wide and high (10 feet long and 5.2 feet wide and high), it can squeeze into narrow lanes in Asian cities, but still seats five people.

(to be continued)

Translation

越南河內（美聯社）— 越南汽車製造商 VinFast 曾經成為全球第三大最有價值的汽車公司，但它面臨一個大問題：它無法銷售足夠的汽車。

閒置的工廠大量流失資金，公司的財務健康受到威脅。在發現美國市場是一個棘手的難題後，Vinfast 希望其迄今為止最小、最便宜的汽車 - 即一款長約10 英尺的純電動迷你SUV，售價9,200 美元，名為VF3 - 將可成為越南的 “國民汽車”，並贏得亞洲市場的消費者。

據 VinFast 稱，VF3 專為越南和其他亞洲市場設計，其定價位於「對大眾吸有引力」。 Vingroup 董事長 Le Thi Thuy 在 4 月的財報電話會議上表示，預計這款產品的銷量將高於主要出口到西方國家的早期型號。

VinFast去年在美國上市並在納斯達克上市時，就夢想著躋身全球汽車製造商的大聯盟，其市值於8月下旬一度超過通用汽車公司和福特汽車公司。

此後，投資者的熱情逐漸降溫，其股價從 82.35 美元的峰值跌至 4 美元以下。 VinFast 在北卡羅來納州投資 40 億美元的工廠建設面臨延誤，該公司在一封電子郵件中表示，正在審查和評估「建設過程的各個方面」。該公司因加州發生的導致四人死亡的車禍而面臨法律麻煩。它還正在處理專利侵權指控。

VinFast 的未來對越南很重要，一方面是因為它的雄心壯志與共產黨自己的目標相吻合，另一方面是因為母公司 Vingroup 在越南經濟中發揮重要作用。該集團於 20 世紀 90 年代在烏克蘭成立，最初是一家泡麵公司，現在經營各種業務。

VinFast 報告去年淨虧損 23.9 億美元，儘管收入成長了 90%。為了修補其破爛的財務狀況，Vingroup 最近出售了其有盈利的商業房地產部門 Vincom Retail。根據向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，Vingroup 的創始人Pham Nhat Vuong 已承諾將其個人財富中的10 億美元投入其中，而母公司在2017 年至2023 年期間向 VinFast 注入了114 億美元的資金。

據官方媒體報道，他在 4 月的 Vingroup 股東年度股東大會上表示： “我們永遠不會放棄 VinFast。”

顧問公司 Sino Auto Insights 的創辦人 Tu Le表示，VF3最初將在亞洲新興市場銷售，那裡的汽車購買者從摩托車進階到四輪車, 可能不會像美國人那麼挑剔。

汽車只有 3.1 公尺長、1.6 公尺寬和高（10 英尺長、5.2 英尺寬和高），可以擠進亞洲城市的狹窄巷子，但仍可容納 5 人。

（待續）

中國警覺地關注普京和金正恩建立新的「聯盟」 (2/2)

Recently CNN New on-line reported the following:

China is watching warily as Putin and Kim forge new ‘alliance’ (2/2)

Analysis by Nectar Gan, CNN

23 June 2024·6-min read

(continue)

The new treaty comes amid heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula, where Kim has ramped up fiery rhetoric and scrapped a longstanding policy of seeking peaceful reunification with South Korea. After the end of the Korean War in 1953, a formal peace treaty was never signed between the two Koreas, leaving them technically in a state of war.

But the political message of the pact is loud and clear. Driven by a shared hostility to the US and its allies, the two autocratic nations are seeking to undermine and create an alternative to the Western-led global order – a goal shared by China.

Speaking after his meeting with Kim, Putin rankled against what he called “the imperialist policy of the United States and its satellites.”

A month ago, Putin and Xi delivered a similar swipe at the US during the Russian leader’s visit to Beijing. In a sweeping joint statement, the two “old friends” took aim at what they described as a global security system defined by US-backed military alliances – and pledged to work together to counter it.

Western observers have warned against a loose but growing coordination of interests among China, Russia, North Korea and Iran – something one senior US military commander recently likened to a new “axis of evil.”

As Moscow and Pyongyang deepen their alliance, Beijing would be cautious to keep a distance, Liu said, adding that “China certainly doesn’t want to be seen as part of a new Axis.”

But despite the absence of Xi, China would have been the elephant in the room throughout Putin and Kim’s meeting.

“Any such meeting will also include discussion of China,” said Edward Howell, a lecturer in politics at the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom, who focuses on the Korean Peninsula.

“Russia will know full well that China does not want to be left out of any substantial negotiations involving North Korea, not least since China is far more important – compared to Russia – to North Korea.”

Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Washington-based Stimson Center think tank, said China doesn’t feel it can control the pace and extent of the deepening engagement between Russia and North Korea.

“But they do know that China plays an irreplaceable role for both Russia and North Korea,” she said.

China remains the largest trade partner to both Russia and North Korea, providing a crucial lifeline to the heavily sanctioned economies. Beijing also lends significant political support and diplomatic cover to the two international pariahs.

“China doesn’t think that an alliance between Russia and North Korea would be a betrayal,” said Liu with the City University of Hong Kong.

“Neither of the two countries has the capacity to betray China. They still need to rely on China despite their alliance.”

Translation

（繼續）

新條約是在朝鮮半島緊張局勢加劇之際達成的，金正恩在半島上發表了激烈的言論，並放棄了長期以來尋求與韓國和平統一的政策。 1953年韓戰結束後，南北韓從未簽署正式和平條約，技術上來說兩國是處於戰爭狀態。

但該協議的政治訊息是響亮而明確的。在對美國及其盟友的共同敵意的驅使下，這兩個獨裁國家正在尋求破壞並創造一種替代西方主導的全球秩序 -  這也是中國的共同目標。

普京在與金正恩會面後發表講話，對他所謂的「美國及其衛星國的帝國主義政策」表示憤怒。

一個月前，普京和習近平在俄羅斯領導人訪問北京期間對美國進行了類似的抨擊。在一份內容廣泛的聯合聲明中，這兩位「老朋友」瞄向了他們所說的由美國支持的軍事聯盟定義的全球安全體系，並承諾共同努力反抗這個體系。

西方觀察家警告中國、俄羅斯、北韓和伊朗之間鬆散但日益增長的利益協調  -  一位美國高級軍事指揮官最近將其比作新的「邪惡軸心」。

Liu 說，隨著莫斯科和平壤加深聯盟，北京將謹慎保持距離，並補充說 「中國當然不希望被視為新軸心國的一部分」。

但儘管習近平缺席，在普京和金正恩的會晤中，中國仍然是個不願提及的棘手問題。

主要研究朝鮮半島問題的英國牛津大學政治學講師 Edward Howell 表示， “任何此類會議都將討論到中國方面” 。

“俄羅斯將非常清楚知道，中國不想被排除在任何涉及朝鮮的重要談判之外，尤其是因為中國對朝鮮來說比俄羅斯重要得多。”

華盛頓智庫 Stimson Center中國計劃主任 Yun Sun 表示，中國認為自己無法控制俄羅斯與北韓深化接觸的速度和程度。

她說: 「但他們確實知道中國對俄羅斯和北韓都發揮著不可替代的作用」。

中國仍然是俄羅斯和北韓最大的貿易夥伴，為這兩個受到嚴厲制裁的經濟體提供了至關重要的生命線。北京也向這兩個被國際疏離的國家提供了重要的政治支持和外交掩護。

香港城市大學的 Liu說： “中國不認為俄羅斯和北韓結盟會是背叛。”

“兩國都沒有能力背叛中國。儘管他們結盟，但他們仍然需要依賴中國。

              So, in a wide-ranging treaty covering political, trade, investment, and security cooperation, North Korea and Russia pledge to use all available means to provide immediate military assistance in the event the other is attacked. The reaction from China as the main political and economic patron for both countries has been very quiet so far. Probably, China is watching and calculating what it should do next.

Note:

1. If you say there is an elephant in the room, you mean that there is an obvious problem or difficult situation that people do not want to talk about.

中國警覺地關注普京和金正恩建立新的「聯盟」 (1/2)

Recently CNN News on-line reported the following:

China is watching warily as Putin and Kim forge new ‘alliance’ (1/2)

Analysis by Nectar Gan, CNN

23 June 2024·6-min read

As Russian President Vladimir Putin glided through the crowd-lined streets of Pyongyang atop a luxury Mercedes-Benz alongside his North Korean host Kim Jong Un last week, the two autocrats’ most important partner was watching from the sidelines hundreds of miles away in Beijing.

Five years ago, Xi Jinping was offered the same open-top ride with Kim when he became the first Chinese leader to visit Pyongyang in 14 years. At the time, the two leaders vowed to strengthen ties and deepen cooperation, but the language paled in comparison with the “breakthrough” new partnership struck by Kim and Putin.

In a wide-ranging treaty spanning political, trade, investment, and security cooperation, North Korea and Russia pledged to use all available means to provide immediate military assistance in the event the other is attacked.

Putin said Russia and North Korea have ramped up ties to a “new level.” Kim, meanwhile, called the new “alliance” a “watershed moment” in bilateral relations.

The new landmark defense pact agreed by the two nuclear-armed regimes rattled the United States and its Asian allies. Japan voiced “grave concerns” about Putin’s vow not to rule out cooperation with Pyongyang on military technology. South Korea responded by convening an emergency national security meeting and said it would now consider sending arms to Ukraine.

In contrast, the reaction from China, the main political and economic patron for both Russia and North Korea, has been all but muted.

A spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry declined to comment on the treaty, calling it a bilateral matter between Russia and North Korea.

Beneath the official reticence, however, China is likely watching warily, analysts say.

China ‘aims to control the situation’

The deepening ties between two wayward autocrats risk creating new uncertainty for Xi, who needs peace and stability in Northeast Asia as he grapples with a raft of domestic challenges, especially the slowing economy.

Beijing is worried that Moscow’s assistance to Pyongyang – especially on military technology – would further enable and embolden the erratic Kim regime, which has drastically accelerated the buildup of nuclear weapons and missile programs, said Liu Dongshu, an assistant professor focusing on Chinese politics at the City University of Hong Kong.

“When it comes to the North Korea issue, China aims to control the situation and prevent escalation, but it also does not want North Korea to completely collapse either” – a scenario that Beijing fears would allow the US to extend its control right to its doorstep, Liu said.

Previously, Russia had been largely aligned with China on the issue, but its desperate need for North Korea to support its grinding war in Ukraine risks undermining the delicate balance.

Russia has received more than 10,000 shipping containers – the equivalent of 260,000 metric tons of munitions or munitions-related material – from North Korea since September, according to a US statement in February. Both Russia and North Korea have rejected the claim.

And while the US has accused China of providing Russia with dual-use goods that bolster the warring nation’s military industrial complex, Beijing has refrained from offering direct military assistance to Putin and has steered clear of supporting Kim’s nuclear and missile programs.

“If Putin provides more support to North Korea on nuclear issues, including some technical assistance, it will become more difficult for China to control the situation on the Korean Peninsula,” Liu said.

The mutual defense pact signed by Kim and Putin harks back to a 1961 treaty between North Korea and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. That deal was replaced with one that offered much weaker security assurances after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

But North Korea’s mutual defense treaty with China, also signed in 1961, remains in place after multiple renewals.

The Sino-North Korea Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance is the only formal military alliance treaty China has signed with another country, though Beijing doesn’t admit it as such and remains deliberately vague about whether China is obliged to automatically come to North Korea’s defense when a war breaks out.

Similarly, it remains unclear what Russia and North Korea are willing – and able – to do for one another under the new defense pact.

(to be continued)

Translation

上週，當俄羅斯總統普京 與朝鮮東道主金正恩一起乘坐豪華平治汽車駛過平壤有人羣排列的街道時，兩位獨裁者最重要的伙伴正在數百英里外的北京旁觀著。

五年前，習近平成為 14 年來第一位訪問平壤的中國領導人，並獲得了與金正恩一起乘坐相同的敞篷車。當時，兩國領導人誓言要加強關係、深化合作，但與金正恩和普京達成的「突破性」新夥伴關係相比，那些措辭顯得蒼白無力。

在一項涵蓋政治、貿易、投資和安全合作的廣泛條約中，北韓和俄羅斯承諾，如果對方受到攻擊，將使用一切可用手段立即提供軍事援助。

普京表示，俄羅斯和北韓的關係已提升至「新水平」。同時，金正恩稱新的「聯盟」是雙邊關係的「分水嶺」。

兩個核武政權達成的具有里程碑意義的新防禦協定, 令美國及其亞洲盟友感到不安。日本對普京誓言不排除與平壤在軍​​事技術方面進行合作表示「嚴重關切」。韓國對此作出回應，召開緊急國家安全會議，並表示現在將考慮向烏克蘭提供武器。

相較之下，身為俄羅斯和北韓主要政治和經濟贊助人的中國的反應卻一直很平靜。

中國外交部發言人拒絕對條約發表評論，稱這是俄羅斯和北韓之間的雙邊事務。

然而，分析人士表示，在官方沉默的背後，中國可能會保持警惕。

中國 “旨望控制局勢”

兩個任性的獨裁者之間日益加深的關係, 可能​​會為習近平帶來新的不確定性，習近平在應對一系列國內挑戰，特別是經濟放緩的同時，需要一個和平及穩定的東北亞。

香港城市大學研究中國政治的助理教授 Liu Dongshu 表示，北京擔心莫斯科對平壤的援助，尤其是軍事技術方面的援助，將進一步激發和鼓勵行為難以預期金正恩政權，從而大大加速其核武器和導彈計劃的發展。

「在北韓問題上，中國的目標是控制局勢、防止事態升級，但也不希望北韓徹底崩潰」 - Liu 說北京擔心北韓崩潰會讓美國將控制權擴大到其門口。

此前，俄羅斯在這個問題上基本上與中國保持一致，但俄羅斯迫切需要北韓支持其在烏克蘭的激烈戰爭，這可能會破壞這種微妙的平衡。

根據美國 2 月的聲明，自 9 月以來，俄羅斯已從北韓接收了超過 10,000 個貨櫃，相當於 26 萬噸彈藥或彈藥相關材料。俄羅斯和北韓均否認了這說法。

儘管美國指責中國向俄羅斯提供軍民兩用商品，以增強俄國的軍事工業綜合體，但北京並未向普京提供直接軍事援助，也避免支持金正恩的核子計劃和飛彈計劃。

Liu 說: 「如果普京在核問題上向北韓提供更多支持，包括一些技術援助，中國掌控朝鮮半島局勢將變得更加困難」。

金正恩和普京簽署的共同防禦條約可以追溯到1961年冷戰期間由北韓和蘇聯簽署的條約。蘇聯解體後，該協議被安全保證弱得多的協議所取代。

但同樣於 1961 年簽署的北韓與中國的共同防禦條約在多次續約後仍然有效。

《中朝友好合作互助條約》是中國與其他國家簽署的唯一正式軍事同盟條約，儘管北京不承認這一點，中國並且故意含糊其辭有關在當戰爭爆發時是否有義務自動幫助北韓的防禦。

同樣，目前還不清楚俄羅斯和北韓根據新的國防協議願意及可以為彼此做些什麼。

（待續）

UK continues to see outflow of wealthy people, 9,500 people to emigrate in 2024

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

富裕層の流出続く英国、２４年は９５００人が移住か

2024.06.19 Wed posted at 16:15 JST

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（ＣＮＮ） 投資可能な流動資産を少なくとも１００万ドル（約１億５８００万円）保有する最大９５００人が英国を離れる見込みであることが分かった。英移住アドバイザーのヘンリー・アンド・パートナーズが１８日に発表した報告書の試算で明らかになった。この人数は２０２３年の２倍以上に上る。

英政府研究所のハンナ・ホワイト最高経営責任者（ＣＥＯ）は報告書の中で「これらの数字は、富裕層にとって英国が魅力的でなくなる要因が積み重なっていることを反映している」と述べ、ブレグジット（英国の欧州連合離脱）の影響が尾を引き、ロンドンはもはや世界の金融の中心地とは見なされていないと指摘する。

１万６５００人の富裕層が１７年から２３年の間に英国を離れた。これは、加速しているように見える富裕層の世界的な大量移住の一部にすぎない。同報告書によると、今年は１２万８０００人が移住するとみられ、昨年の記録を８０００人上回っている。

富裕層が最も多く居住する１５カ国・地域のうち、英国は特に苦しんでいる。２４年に英国以上に富裕層が減少するのは中国のみ（１万５２００人）。１３年以降の１０年間で純減を記録したのは英国以外では日本と香港のみだ。米国、カナダ、オーストラリア、ドイツ、フランスでは同時期に富裕層の人数は増えている。

ブレグジットの影響に加え、ウクライナ戦争とそれに伴うエネルギー価格の高騰といった経済的打撃は、前例のない政治的不確実性によって悪化している。

英国では１０年以降、５人の首相が誕生。その中には２２年にわずか４５日で辞任したトラス前首相も含まれる。

新たなリスクも迫っている。世論調査でスナク首相率いる保守党を約２０％リードしているスターマー党首率いる労働党は、企業や投資家の誘致に尽力しており、７月４日の選挙公約に経済の安定とより力強い成長の実現を掲げている。

労働党は所得税や消費税の引き上げは行わず、スナク政権が採用した財政ルールを堅持するとしている一方で、富裕層に打撃を与えかねない増税も約束している。

ホワイト氏は「経済的、政治的状況によってすでに生じている富裕層の流出が、選挙を前にした政策決定によって加速している」と指摘している。

Translation

(CNN) Up to 9,500 people with at least $1 million in investable liquid assets were expected to leave the UK. This was estimated in a report released on the 18th by British migration advisor Henley & Partners. This number was more than double the number in 2023.

Hannah White, CEO of the Institute for Government Studies, said in the report that "These figures reflect a growing number of factors that are making the UK less attractive to the wealthy", noting that the effects of Brexit (British's exit from the European Union) are lingering and London is no longer seen as a global financial center.

16,500 wealthy people left the UK between 2017 and 2023. This was just part of a global mass exodus of wealthy people that appeared to be accelerating. According to the report, 128,000 people were expected to emigrate this year, 8,000 more than last year's record.

Of the 15 countries and regions with the largest numbers of wealthy people, the UK was particularly suffering. In 2024 only in China would see a greater decline in its wealthy population (15,200). Outside of the UK, Japan and Hong Kong were the only other countries to have recorded a net decline in the decade since 2013. The US, Canada, Australia, Germany and France all saw their wealthy numbers increased over the same period.

In addition to the economic fallout from Brexit, the war in Ukraine and the resulting energy price hikes impacting the economic impact, all were exacerbated by unprecedented political uncertainty.

The UK had had five prime ministers since 2010, including former Prime Minister Truss, who resigned after just 45 days in 2022.

New risks were also looming. Starmer's Labour party, which polls led Sunak's Conservatives by about 20 percentage points, was working to attract businesses and investors, and in its July 4 election manifesto had pledged to deliver economic stability and stronger growth.

Labour had said it would not raise income or sales taxes and would stick to the fiscal rules adopted by Sunak's government, but it had also promised tax hikes that could hit the wealthy.

White said "The economic and political situation is already causing an exodus of the wealthy, which is being accelerated by policy decisions ahead of the election".

So, up to 9,500 people with at least $1 million in investable liquid assets are expected to leave the UK. This number is more than double the number expected in 2023. I think the US, Canada, Australia, Germany and France will probably see the number of their wealthy people increase as a result. I am wondering how a country will be impacted if the rich people depart.

觀點：愚弄希特勒的人 (2/2)

Recently CNN News on-line reported the following:

Opinion: The man who fooled Hitler (2/2)

CNN - Opinion by Tim Naftali

 9 minute read

Updated 11:30 AM EDT, Sun June 16, 2024

(Editor’s Note: Tim Naftali is a CNN presidential historian and senior research scholar at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. The views expressed here are his own. Read more opinion on CNN. The CNN Original Series “Secrets & Spies: A Nuclear Game” airs on Sundays at 10 p.m. ET/PT.)

(continue)

Decades ago, as I was researching what ultimately became my dissertation, I had the good fortune to meet some of the surviving British MI-5 officers who were in charge of these Double-Cross agents.  These were inventive, disciplined intelligence officers whose talent was not only managing the agents captured in England, but also brilliantly imitating the way they reported to their Nazi case officers and figuring out how to weave reality and falsehood into messages that would be plausible to the ultimate intelligence consumer in Berlin.

I also met the man who came up with the D-Day deception, Roger Fleetwood Hesketh, who was a trained architect. He told me that for the D-Day deception, codenamed Fortitude South, he had drawn on different talents. He had grown up with one sibling on a big estate (where he still lived when I visited him in the 1980s) near Liverpool. He and his sister compensated for not having many friends their own age nearby by creating a fantasy world of playmates. A sandbox conspiracy, if you will, that seemed very real to them but, of course, only existed in their own minds.

Besides being creative, one of the keys to the brilliant counterespionage campaigns in World War II was the codebreaking that allowed the Allies to assess whether their efforts were working, and double down once it became clear the Nazis were taking the bait. Not only could the US read what the Japanese were saying about how Hitler viewed the progress of the war in Europe, but US and British codebreakers could also read what German intelligence officers were saying amongst themselves about the trustworthiness of its agents in the UK — part of Ultra, the UK-led intelligence project against all high-level Nazi military communications. Codebreakers at the British facility Bletchley Park, chief among whom was the computing and LGBTQ pioneer Alan Turing, routinely broke the codes and ciphers that the Germans unsuccessfully used to disguise their most important messages. From Ultra, allied counterspies learned that German intelligence trusted double agents’ disinformation campaign about the invasion of France.

While much of the counterespionage during WWII remained a secret to the public for nearly 30 years after June 6, 1944, these tactics were well known among intelligence officers and widely used during the Cold War. The Soviets learned about the Double-Cross network from two well-placed spies of their own — moles Anthony Blunt in MI5 and Kim Philby in MI6’s counterespionage service, Section V or XB.

The D-Day achievement would set a very high-bar for those who learned the craft of counterespionage in fighting Hitler. What they couldn’t possibly have known in 1944 was that they were living through a golden age in counterespionage and strategic deception. As depicted dramatically in CNN’s new original series “Secrets & Spies: A Nuclear Game,” the Cold War would provide a more evenly matched, and, therefore, more difficult environment for the spy v. spy game.

Evaluating human intelligence is always messy and challenging. If you are a case officer — the manager of a particular agent — it can be incredibly difficult to know whether he or she is telling the truth. In other words, when dealing with double agents, being certain about their ultimate loyalty is a virtual impossibility.

With one major exception, neither the Western powers nor the Soviets had a reliable window into what their adversaries’ spies were up to for most of the decades-long conflict between the US and USSR.

Finding traitors during the Cold War got harder, and intelligence services became more susceptible to futile “mole” hunts and the paranoia that those naturally inspired. It also permitted the moles that did exist to secretly influence how the adversaries understood each other. Sometimes, as in the case of Oleg Gordievsky, a KGB officer working for the British, it worked to the benefit of world peace and stability as Gordievsky gave timely warning to London and Washington of the Kremlin’s nuclear paranoia.

Sometimes, however, the insufficiency of counterespionage made the world a more dangerous place. For 20 years, starting in 1979, the top US counterespionage officer working on the Soviet target in America, the FBI’s Robert Hanssen, was himself a Soviet agent. As was the CIA’s counterintelligence officer who managed security for its agents in the Soviet Union, Aldrich Ames.

The crisis in US counterespionage against the USSR in the 1980s — largely due to the simultaneous activities of Hanssen and Ames — hampered efforts in the West to monitor and understand fully the Soviet Union as it underwent a massive period of reform and, ultimately, collapse. Fortunately, Mikhail Gorbachev, who came to power in 1985, did much of his most significant work overtly — trying to signal that he was a different kind of leader to the West as much as to his own people.

Now, 80 years after D-Day and 35 years after the end of the Cold War, fake identities and disinformation are no longer relegated to the concerns of counterespionage agents. They are part of our daily online feeds. In a sense, each of us has become our own counter-deception officer, trying to distinguish misinformation from what’s real. A strategy once perfected to save lives and defeat arguably the worst dictator the world has ever known has become commonplace online — and eroded our trust in institutions and each other.

Translation

（繼續）

幾十年前，當我的研究最終成為我的論文時，我有幸見到了一些倖存的英國軍情五處官員，他們是負責這些「欺騙網路」的特工。 這些都是富有創造力、紀律嚴明的情報官員，他們的才能不僅在於管理在英國被抓獲的特工，還出色地模仿他們向納粹個案負責官員報告的方式，並弄清楚如何將現實與虛假編織成資訊, 令在柏林的資訊使用者相信。

我還遇到了諾曼第登陸騙局的發明者 Roger Fleetwood Hesketh，他是一位訓練有素的建築師。他告訴我，在代號為「堅韌南方」的諾曼地登陸欺騙行動中，他動用了不同的人才。他和一個姐妹在利物浦附近的一處大莊園長大（當我在 20 世紀 80 年代拜訪他時，他仍然住在那裡）。在那裡他和他的姊妹透過創造一個幻想的玩伴世界來彌補附近沒有太多同齡朋友的問題。以某一種方式表達來說，一個用沙堆砌出的陰謀對納粹官員來說似乎非常真實，但當然，這只存在於納粹官員自己的想像中。

除了創造性之外，第二次世界大戰中出色的反間諜活動的關鍵之一是密碼破譯，使盟軍能夠評估他們的努力是否有效，並在發現納粹上釣後加倍努力。美國不僅可以讀懂日本人對希特勒如何看待歐洲戰爭進展的言論，而且美國和英國的密碼破譯者也可以讀懂德國情報官員, 關於其駐英國特工可信度的言論 - 這是Ultra的一部分, 是英國領導的針對所有納粹高層軍事通訊的情報項目。英國 Bletchley Park 設施的密碼破譯者（其中主要人物是電腦和 LGBTQ 的先驅者 Alan Turing）經常破解德國人用來掩飾其最重要訊息但未能成功的代碼和密碼。盟軍反間諜從 Ultra 了解到，德國情報部門信任雙重間諜關於入侵法國的假訊息活動。

雖然二戰期間的大部分反間諜活動在 1944 年 6 月 6 日之後的接近 30 年內一直對公眾保密，但這些策略在情報官員中眾所周知，並在冷戰期間廣泛使用。蘇聯人從他們自己的兩名精心佈置的間諜那裡了得知到這雙重間諜網絡的存在 - 即軍情五處的蘇聯潛伏內奸 Anthony Blunt 和軍情六處反間諜部門第五, 或稱為 XB 部門的潛伏內奸 Kim Philby。

諾曼地登陸的成果, 將為那些在對抗希特勒的過程中學會反間諜技巧的人, 設定一個非常高的標準。 在1944 年他們不可能知道自己正處於反間諜和戰略欺騙的黃金時代。正如美國有線電視新聞網 (CNN) 的新原創劇集《秘密與間諜：一場核競賽》中戲劇性地描述的那樣，冷戰將為間諜對疊間諜的競賽提供一個更加勢均力敵、因此更加有挑戦的環境。

去評估人類智力總是混亂且具挑戰性的。如果您是一件個案的官員, 即某一個特工的經理人，要知道他或她是否說真話可能會非常困難的。換句話說，在與雙重間諜打交道時，去確定他們的最終忠誠實際上是不可能的。

除了一個重大例外，西方列強和蘇聯都沒有一個可靠的窗口來了解對方間諜在美蘇之間長達數十年的衝突的大部分時間裡所做的事情。

冷戰期間尋找叛徒變得更加困難，情報部門更容易面對面對徒勞的追捕「內奸」行動及那些自然地會引發出的偏執。它還令確實存在的內奸 去秘密地影響對手如何相互理解。有時，就像為英國工作的 KGB 官員 Oleg Gordievsky 的個案，Gordievsky 及時就克里姆林宮的核偏執向倫敦和華盛頓發出警告而有利於世界和平與穩定。

然而，有時，不足夠的反間諜活動使世界變得更加危險。從 1979 年開始的 20 年來，美國聯邦調查局 (FBI)負責監視蘇聯在美國目標的最高級反間諜官員 Robert Hanssen 一直是一名蘇聯間諜。負責管理美國駐蘇聯特工安全的中央情報局反間諜官員 Aldrich Ames 也是。

20 世紀 80 年代美國針對蘇聯的反間諜工作所面對的危機 - 主要是由於 Hanssen 和 Ames 的同時活動 - 阻礙了西方在蘇聯經歷大規模改革並最終崩潰時, 對其進行監測和全面了解的努力。幸運的是，1985 年上台的 Mikhail Gorbachev 公開地去完成了他最重要的工作 - 試圖向西方和他自己的人民表明，他是一位不同類型的領導人。

如今，諾曼地登陸已過去 80 年，冷戰結束已過去 35 年，虛假身分和假訊息不再是反間諜特工的焦點。它們是我們每日線上資訊的一部分。從某種意義上說，我們每個人都成為了自己的反欺騙官員，試圖去區分失實訊息和真實訊息。曾經為了拯救生命和擊敗可以說是世界上最壞的獨裁者而完善出來的策略, 現在在網上變得司空見慣，並侵蝕了我們對機構和彼此的信任。

So, according to the author, as we remember and celebrate the heroism of the Allied troops on D-Day 80 years ago, it is worth mentioning that even more Allied soldiers would likely have died had it not been for a group of spies working on behalf of the Allies to deceive Hitler. A key objective of the deception was to convince Hitler to keep the 15th Army and tank divisions in reserve, away from the Normandy beaches for as long as possible, so as to give Allied soldiers a fighting chance to secure a beachhead. This is an interesting espionage project that happened in WWII.

觀點：愚弄希特勒的人 (1/2)

Recently CNN news on-line reported the following:

Opinion: The man who fooled Hitler (1/2)

CNN - Opinion by Tim Naftali

 9-minute read

Updated 11:30 AM EDT, Sun June 16, 2024

(Editor’s Note: Tim Naftali is a CNN presidential historian and senior research scholar at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. The views expressed here are his own. Read more opinion on CNN. The CNN Original Series “Secrets & Spies: A Nuclear Game” airs on Sundays at 10 p.m. ET/PT.)

As we remember and celebrate the heroism of the Allied troops on D-Day 80 years ago, it is worth mentioning that even more of them would likely have died had it not been for a group of spies working on behalf of the Allies.

The odds of D-Day succeeding were never overwhelming. Approximately 50,000 Nazi soldiers defended the five beaches targeted by Allied troops on D-Day. Although eventually 160,000 Allied troops would enter France through those five beachheads that day, the very first to reach the shore were vastly outnumbered and outgunned. But getting past those first Nazi defenders, protected by bunkers and other fortifications of the so-called Atlantic Wall, was only the first challenge.

The second was what would happen once the Germans figured out that the Battle for France had begun. Hitler’s 15th Army was stationed in the Pas des Calais — where the English Channel is at its most narrow — while tank divisions were kept in reserve in northern France and Belgium, all ready to swoop in and destroy any Allied forces that breached the Atlantic Wall. To increase their chance of success, Allied leaders turned to inhabitants of the secret world.

These were unusual spies. First of all, their main job was to get false information to Adolf Hitler — rather than to steal Nazi secrets. And, secondly, some of these spies didn’t actually exist — they were completely made-up creations of British intelligence. A half-century before the internet was widely available, they were the forerunners of fake Facebook and Instagram accounts.

These spies were known to British and US intelligence as the Double-Cross network. They were agents employed by the Nazis, who either turned themselves in to the British or were captured by them in the first years of World War II.

Counterespionage is the most arcane of the dark arts. In its simplest form, it is the way a government protects its secrets by studying the activities of foreign governments who want them. But World War II would see a dramatic expansion of the offensive use of counterspies — not simply to prevent the enemy from knowing things but to actively deceive the enemy by planting disinformation. And although strategic deception, as it was called, would be used a number of times in World War II, the most dramatic and consequential example was part of the planning for D-Day.

The British used members of the Double-Cross network who were doubled back against Berlin to deceive Hitler’s military intelligence service, using radio transmissions from the UK or letters sent from neutral capitals about when and where the Allies planned to launch their anticipated invasion of occupied France.

Central to this deception operation was Juan Pujol García, a Spanish national who was codenamed Garbo, after the great actress Greta Garbo. As it became clear that the Germans not only believed Garbo, but considered him unusually effective, the British began to create fictional sub-agents for him. With the help of his British handler, Garbo would feed disinformation about these completely made-up agents who were supposedly placed in the British government and US bases in the United Kingdom. The British coordinated with the US military and its Office of Strategic Services (OSS) and they bolstered the disinformation Garbo was feeding to Berlin. This included transmitting radio signals from non-existent US military units in Britain and creating “ghost armies” — complete with inflatable tanks, fake radio traffic and sound effects — to deceive German air reconnaissance and divert their attention away from the activities of real units.

Starting in January 1944, Garbo and his “agents” began to build a fake picture in German minds of a D-Day that would occur in July 1944 in the Pas de Calais. According to the fake intelligence created and spread by the Double-Cross network, the big invasion would be preceded by one or more feints — smaller invasions designed to distract the Germans. To make this two-punch scenario plausible, Allied deception officers worked to make the Germans think that there was a massive buildup of Allied troops in the UK preparing to pounce on the Third Reich, including a completely fake “ghost army” commanded by the real General George Patton from across the Pas de Calais.

A key objective of this deception was to convince Hitler to keep the 15th Army and tank divisions in reserve, away from the Normandy beaches for as long as possible, so as to give Allied soldiers a fighting chance to secure a beachhead. Led by Garbo, the Double-Cross network sang in chorus.

As the real D-Day approached, the Allies could tell that the deception was working. Hitler was uncharacteristically talkative with the Japanese ambassador to Berlin, whose encrypted dispatches to Tokyo were routinely broken and translated by US intelligence. Hitler told the Japanese that the allies intended two attacks across the English Channel in the summer of 1944 and he wasn’t about the be fooled by the first one.

Remarkably, as hoped, the deception held. The Nazis did not divert all of their resources to Normandy, since their military intelligence continued to believe that the big one was still imminent. As late as July 8, 1944, a month after D-Day, Hitler still believed that Normandy was a feint. As such, he refused requests from his generals to throw everything at it. “The enemy has succeeded in landing in Normandy,” Hitler wrote to his commanders. “In spite of the attendant risks, the enemy will probably attempt a second landing in the 15th Army’s sector…”

(to be continued)

Translation

當我們懷緬和慶祝80年前諾曼第登陸日盟軍的英勇行為時，值得一提的是，如果沒有一群代表盟軍的間諜，可能會有更多的人喪生。

諾曼地登陸成功的可能性從來都不是壓倒性的。大約 5 萬名納粹士兵保衛了諾曼第登陸日盟軍瞄準的五個海灘。儘管那天最終有 16 萬名盟軍通過這五個灘頭陣地進入法國，但最先到達海岸的部隊在數量和火力上都遠遠落後敵方。但去越過第一批受到掩護體和所謂大西洋牆其他防禦工事保護的納粹防禦者, 只是盟軍第一個挑戰。

第二個問題是，一旦德國人發現法國之戰已經開始，會發生什麼事。希特勒的第 15 集團軍駐紮在加來海峽 - 英倫海峽最狹窄的地方 - 而坦克師則保留在法國北部和比利時作預備隊，隨時準備突襲並摧毀任何突破大西洋壁壘的盟軍部隊。為了增加成功的機會，盟軍領導人轉向活在機密世界的人。

這些都是不尋常的間諜。首先，他們的主要工作是向希特勒提供虛假信息，而不是竊取納粹機密。其次，其中一些間諜其實並不存在 - 他們完全是英國情報部門捏造出來的。在未有網路廣泛普及的半個世紀前，它們是虛假 Facebook 和 Instagram 帳戶的先驅。

這些間諜被英國和美國情報部門稱為「欺騙網路」。他們曾是納粹僱用的特工，他們要么已向英國自首，要么在二戰初期已被英國俘虜。

反間諜活動是黑暗藝術中最神祕的一環。最簡單的形式是，政府透過研究那些希望獲得機密的外國政府的活動, 來保護自身機密。但在第二次世界大戰中，反間諜的進攻性使用急劇擴大 - 不僅僅是為了阻止敵人了解情況，而是透過散佈假訊息來積極欺騙敵人。儘管所謂的戰略性欺騙在第二次世界大戰中被多次使用，但最戲劇性和最重要的例子是諾曼第登陸計畫的一部分。

英國利用 欺騙網路 的成員來欺騙希特勒的軍事情報部門，成員利用來自英國的無線電傳輸或從中立首都發送的信件來透露出盟軍計劃何時何地對被佔領的法國發動預期的入侵。

這次欺騙行動的核心人物是西班牙人 Juan Pujol García，他的代號是“嘉寶”（Garbo），以出眾女演員 Greta Garbo 的名字命名。隨著德國人不僅相信嘉寶，而且認為他異常高效，英國人開始為他虛構一些副特工。在英國負責人的幫助下，嘉寶將提供有關一些完全虛構的特工的虛假信息，訛稱這些特工被安置在英國政府和美國駐英國基地。英國與美國軍方及其戰略服務辦公室（OSS）一起協調，支援嘉寶向柏林提供的假資訊。這包括從英國境內不存在的美軍部隊發射無線電信號，並創建「幽靈軍隊」 - 配備充氣坦克、虛假無線電通訊和聲音效果 - 以欺騙德國空中偵察，並將他們的注意力遠離真實部隊的活動。

從 1944 年 1 月開始，嘉寶和他的「特工」開始在德國人的腦海中塑造一幅 1944 年 7 月在加萊海峽發生的諾曼第登陸的虛假畫面。由「欺騙網路」製造和傳播的虛假情報顯示，大規模入侵之前會進行一次或多次佯攻 - 旨在分散德國人注意力的較小規模入侵。為了讓這種前後拳的場景變得可信，盟軍的欺騙官員努力讓德國人相信，在英國有大量盟軍集結，準備突襲第三帝國，其中包括一支完全假的 「幽靈軍隊」” ，由真有其人的巴頓將軍向加萊海峽 (Pas de Calais) 作出指揮。

這次欺騙的一個主要目的是說服希特勒將第15集團軍和坦克師保留為預備隊，盡可能長時間地遠離諾曼第海灘，以便為盟軍士兵提供奪取灘頭陣地的戰鬥機會。在嘉寶的帶領下，「欺騙網路」重複多次虛假情報。

隨著真正的諾曼地登陸日的臨近，盟軍發現欺騙正在發揮作用。希特勒與日本駐柏林大使一反常態地健談，日本駐柏林大使發往東京的加密電報常被美國情報部門破解翻譯。希特勒告訴日本人，盟軍打算在 1944 年夏天渡過英吉利海峽發動兩輪襲擊，他不想被第一輪襲擊所愚弄。

令人驚訝的是，正如所期望的那樣，欺騙成功了。納粹並沒有將所有資源轉移到諾曼底，因為他們的軍事情報部門仍然認為大攻勢仍未來臨。直到 1944 年 7 月 8 日，諾曼第登陸一個月後，希特勒仍然認為諾曼第是佯攻。因此，他拒絕了將軍們把一切力量都調動出去的要求。 希特勒在給他的指揮官的信中寫道: 「敵人已經成功登陸諾曼底」; 「儘管有隨之而來的風險，敵人多半會嘗試在第 15 集團軍的防區進行第二次登陸…”

（待續） 

中國貿易商價值 2,000 萬美元的俄羅斯銅礦失踪

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Chinese Trader’s $20 Million Pile of Russian Copper Goes Missing

Alfred Cang and Jessica Zhou

Wed, June 12, 2024 at 5:51 p.m. PDT·3 min read

(Bloomberg) -- A giant state-owned Chinese commodities trader is nursing losses after a shipment of copper from Russia worth nearly $20 million went missing, reigniting fears over fraud in the often-secretive market for buying and selling raw materials.

Wuchan Zhongda Group Co., which had sales of 580 billion yuan ($80 billion) in 2023, bought 2,000 tons of refined copper from a Russian smelter that should have been delivered last month. It never made it to port, according to people with knowledge of the incident.

Instead, the metal was listed as much cheaper granite and has likely ended up in Turkey, according to the records of the shipping line that handled the consignment, the people said, declining to be identified discussing a sensitive matter.

Staff from the Chinese company have visited Russia to investigate what happened, although they’ve been unable to determine where the smelter is even located, the people said.

Wuchan Zhongda, based in the eastern province of Zhejiang, declined to comment.

The episode, while unlikely to have global repercussions, is the latest blow to international metals trading and its reputation. The sector has repeatedly found itself tangled in scams, including tales of fake warehouse receipts and containers filled with painted rocks. Trading behemoth Trafigura Group last year fell foul of a missing metals scheme that cost the firm over half a billion dollars.

Favorable Terms

Russia is one of the world’s biggest copper suppliers and China is the largest consumer. Western sanctions imposed on Russian commodities in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine are expanding commerce between the two nations, with Chinese buyers enjoying discounts and other favorable payment terms to keep trade flowing.

The risk is that advantageous conditions at a time of high metal prices could tempt Chinese traders into deals when the relationship with the supplier isn’t well established. Now, Chinese firms rattled by the most recent incident have started conducting internal checks on their own contracts with counterparties, according to the people.

Wuchan Zhongda purchased the metal from a Russian producer called Regional Metallurgical Co. late last year, the people said. The shipment was due to be sold on to a local trader, a common practice in China where smaller merchants take advantage of the bank credit available to bigger rivals.

Cash copper on the London Metal Exchange last traded at $9,821 a ton, so at today’s prices the consignment would be worth nearly $20 million. Last year, China’s total imports of refined copper averaged more than 300,000 tons a month, for use across a variety of industries including construction, power transmission and clean energy.

The cargo left Saint Petersburg at the beginning of this year and was scheduled to arrive at the Chinese port of Ningbo in late May, the people said, after being rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid conflict in the Red Sea.

Translation

（彭博）— 中國一家大型國有大宗商品貿易商因從俄羅斯運來的價值近 2,000 萬美元的銅失踪而蒙受損失，再次引發人們對經常秘密的原材料買賣市場中存在欺詐行為的擔憂。

Wuchan Zhongda 集團有限公司 2023年銷售額為5,800億元人民幣（800億美元），從一家俄羅斯冶煉廠購買了2,000 噸精煉銅，而這些精煉銅本應在上個月交付。據知情人士透露，它從未抵達港口。

知情人士表示，根據處理這批貨物的航運公司的記錄，這種金屬被列為便宜得多的花崗岩，很可能最終運往土耳其。他們因討論敏感問題拒絕透露姓名。

知情人士稱，這家中國公司的工作人員已前往俄羅斯調查發生的情況，但他們連冶煉廠的具體位置也無法確定。

總部位於東部浙江省的 Wuchan Zhongda 拒絕置評。

這事件雖然不太可能產生全球影響，但卻是對國際金屬交易及其聲譽的最新打擊。該行業屢屢陷入騙局，包括偽造倉單和裝滿彩繪岩石的貨櫃的故事。貿易巨頭 Trafigura Group 去年因渉及金屬失踪騙局，導致該公司損失超過5億美元。

 

優惠條件

俄羅斯是世界上最大的銅供應國之一，中國是最大的消費國。烏克蘭入侵後西方對俄羅斯商品實施的製裁正在擴大兩國之間的貿易，中國買家享受折扣和其他有利的付款條件以保持貿易繼續。

風險在於，在與供應商的關係尚未建立良好的情況下，於高金屬價格時期的有利條件, 可能會吸引中國貿易商進行交易。知情人士稱，現在，因最近的事件而感到不安的中國公司已開始對自己與交易對手的合約進行內部檢查。

知情人士稱，Wuchan Zhongda 去年年底從一家名為 Regional Metallurgical Co. 的俄羅斯生產商購買了這種金屬。這批貨物原定出售給當地貿易商，這在中國是一種常見做法，小商人利用從銀行獲得通常只提供給較大的競爭對手的信貸。

倫敦金屬交易所的現貨銅最新交易價格為每噸 9,821 美元，因此以今天的價格計算，這批貨物的價值接近 2,000 萬美元。去年，中國精煉銅進口總量平均每月超過30萬噸，用於建築、電力傳輸和清潔能源等多個產業。

知情人士稱，這批貨物於今年初離開聖彼得堡，為避免紅海衝突而改道繞過好望角，原定於五月下旬抵達中國寧波港。

So, a giant state-owned Chinese commodities trader is nursing losses after a shipment of copper from Russia worth nearly $20 million went missing, reigniting fears over fraud in the often-secretive market for buying and selling raw materials. Cheating in business is common, in particular in those countries where the rule of law is not strictly upheld.