新型太陽能板是美國追趕中國的最佳希望（2/2）

 Recently The New York Times reported the following:

New Crop of Solar Panels Is the U.S.’s Best Hope of Catching China (2/2)

Th NYT - By Ivan Penn (Ivan Penn is a reporter based in Los Angeles and covers the energy industry. His work has included reporting on clean energy, failures in the electric grid and the economics of utility services.)

Oct. 5, 2026

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The technology for modern solar panels was created at AT&T’s Bell Labs in 1954. But broad use of it didn’t take off until the 1980s as the devices became more efficient at converting sunshine into electricity. Improvements helped lower costs and have made the technology the cheapest way to generate electricity.

In recent years, energy companies have also figured out how to pair solar panels with batteries to supply energy hours after the sun has set. Solar and batteries accounted for 70 percent of the capacity added to U.S. grids in the first half of this year, according to Wood Mackenzie, an energy research firm.

Solar energy made up nearly 9 percent of the electricity produced in the United States in 2025, up from 3 percent in 2020, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Widespread use of tandem panels could significantly increase solar’s share of the country’s electricity, helping to satisfy the surging demand for power from data centers used to develop artificial intelligence.

Energy analysts evaluate the dependability of different sources of power by measuring their capacity factors. In theory, a power source that can supply electricity 24 hours a day, 365 days a year would have a capacity factor of 100 percent. But no power plants operate at that level because they require maintenance, upgrades, refueling and so on.

Nuclear plants typically offer the highest capacity factors, in the low 90s. Large natural gas power plants generally operate at about 58 percent, while U.S. solar farms average roughly 24 percent, according to the E.I.A. That is primarily because they produce electricity only when the sun is shining and cannot convert all of the light they receive into usable energy.

Solar executives assert that tandem panels could have capacity factors of more than 31 percent. As a result, energy companies would be able to generate the same electricity on less land and with fewer materials.

“If you build a utility field, you need fewer cables,” said Mr. Fertig of Qcells. “If you have a rooftop, you can get the same power out of less of your rooftop.”

Qcells became the first manufacturer to make a tandem panel that has been independently certified under  standards established by Underwriters Laboratories and the International Electrotechnical Commission, two groups that validate and set standards for various products.

Another company working on such devices — Tandem PV in Fremont, Calif. — says it has been testing panels under various conditions across the country for the last year.

“We’re showing less than 1 percent degradation per year,” Scott Wharton, chief executive of Tandem PV, a name that refers to the photovoltaic technology used to convert sunlight into electricity. He added that tandem solar panels would dominate the industry by the mid-2030s. “There’s no debate in the industry that we will move to tandems.”

The design of tandem panels favors First Solar, one of the few U.S. manufacturers that survived as Chinese producers became dominant. First Solar’s products use a thin film material that other manufactures would most likely need to perfect to make the layers in tandem panels.

“We’ve invested over $2 billion in thin film research and development, including this program,” said Mark Widmar, chief executive of First Solar, in Phoenix.

Some energy companies have bought early versions of the tandem panels to ensure that they do not get left behind, said Wayne Li, a principal at the Electric Power Research Institute, a nonprofit research organization. How dependable and durable the panels are will require extensive third-party testing, he added.

“Manufacturers are not very open to share the details and the data,” Mr. Li said.

Translation

新型太陽能板是美國追趕中國的最佳希望（2/2）

 （繼續）

現代太陽能板的技術於1954年由AT&T貝爾實驗室研發。但直到1980年代，隨著太陽能板將陽光轉化為電能的效率不斷提高，其應用才開始廣泛普及。技術的改進降低了成本，使其成為最經濟的發電方式。

近年來，能源公司還找到了將太陽能電池板與蓄電池結合使用的方法，以便在日落後數小時內繼續供電。根據能源研究公司Wood Mackenzie的數據顯示，今年上半年，太陽能和蓄電池的發電容量佔美國電網新增容量的70%。

根據美國能源資訊署（EIA），太陽能發電佔美國2025年總發電量的近9%，由2020年的3%上升。

串聯式太陽能電池板的廣泛應用有望顯著提高太陽能在美國電力供應中的佔比，從而滿足用於人工智能開發的数據庫日益增長的電力需求。

能源分析師透過測量容量係數(capacity factors)來評估不同能源的可靠性。理論上，能夠全年365天、每天24小時不間斷供電的能源，其容量係數將達100%。但實際上，沒有電廠能夠達到如此高的運作效率，因為它們需要維護、升級、燃料補給等等。

核電廠的容量係數通常最高，約90%。大型天然氣發電廠的capacity factors (容量係數) 一般在58%左右，而美國太陽能發電廠的平均容量係數約為24%（數據來自EIA）。這主要是因為它們只有在陽光照射時才能發電，而且無法將所有接收到的光能轉化為可用能量。

太陽能產業高層聲稱，串聯式太陽能板的容量係數可以超過31%。因此，能源公司可以用更少的土地和材料生產相同的電力。

Qcells公司的Fertig說: “如果你建造一個公用設施場，你需要的電纜就會減少” ， “如果你有一個屋頂，你可以用更少的屋頂面積獲得同樣的電力。”

Qcells公司成為第一家生產通過獨立認證的串聯式太陽能板的製造商，其認證標準由美國保險商實驗室（UL）和國際電工委員會（IEC）制定，這兩個機構負責驗證和製定各種產品的標準。

另一家致力於此類設備研發的公司 - 位於加州Fremont的Tandem PV公司 - 表示，過去一年來，他們一直在全國各地對太陽能電池板進行各種條件下的測試。

Tandem PV執行長Scott Wharton說: 「我們的產品每年衰減率不到1%」。 Tandem PV指的是一種將陽光轉化為電能的光伏技術。他補充說，到2030年代中期，串聯式太陽能板將主導整個產業。 “業內人士一致認為，我們將轉向串聯式太陽能電池板。”

 串聯式電池板的設計對First Solar有利，該公司是少數幾家美國製造商之一，在中國製造商佔據主導地位後倖存下來的。 First Solar的產品使用了一種薄膜材料，其他製造商很可能需要進一步完善這種材料才能製造出串聯式電池板中的薄膜層。

First Solar執行長Mark Widmar在鳳凰城表示: 「我們在薄膜研發方面投入了超過20億美元，包括這個項目」。

電力研究院（一家非營利研究機構）負責人Wayne Li表示，一些能源公司已經購買了早期版本的串聯式電池板，以確保自己不會落後。他補充說，這些面板的可靠性和耐用性還需要進行廣泛的第三方測試。

Li 說： “製造商不太願意分享細節和數據。”

              So, companies in the United States are about to make a technological breakthrough that could upend the solar panels making industry, and even challenge China’s leadership in this field. The new kinds of panels can generate 25 percent more energy than most such devices available today. The new technology, known as tandem solar, involves adding second and third layers of material to allow panels to convert more of the sun’s radiance into electricity. Apparently, a widespread use of tandem panels could help satisfy the surging demand for power from data centers used to develop artificial intelligence.

Note:

1. Capacity factor (容量係數) is a performance metric that measures how much electricity a power plant actually produces over a period of time compared to the maximum amount of energy it could theoretically produce if it ran at full power continuously. (Google)