支撐中國出口熱潮的隱藏政策（1/2）

 Recently The New York Times reported the following:

The Hidden Policies That Power China’s Export Boom (1/2)

Huge tax breaks and a weak currency sustain exports, widen the government budget deficit and complicate the country’s efforts to rebalance its economy.

The NYT - By Keith Bradsher, Ruoxin Zhang contributed research.

Oct. 6, 2026, 12:00 a.m. ET

China has kept its export engine roaring with a combination of tax rebates and a weak currency, helping sustain economic growth at home while sending a surge of Chinese goods into markets abroad.

But that strategy is fueling tension with its trading partners. And this week, officials from Brussels arriving in Beijing are preparing to press Chinese officials about a European trade deficit with China that exceeds $1.1 billion a day.

Europe’s leaders say China tilts the scale with government subsidies and low-interest loans to its manufacturers, flooding European markets with inexpensive goods.

But subsidies are only part of the advantage Chinese exporters enjoy. The renminbi, China’s currency, remains unusually weak, making China’s goods cheaper overseas. At the same time, Beijing refunds exporters hundreds of billions of dollars a year in taxes, further lowering their costs.

Both policies have become difficult for China to unwind.

The renminbi is down more than 14 percent in inflation-adjusted terms from its early-2022 level against a broad set of currencies. Over roughly the same period, China’s trade surplus has nearly doubled. While the weak currency helps exporters, it also makes foreign goods more costly for Chinese consumers and businesses.

China’s export tax rebates have also surged. Rebates to export companies for value-added taxes reached $318.2 billion last year, equivalent to 1.5 percent of China’s economy, according to data from the country’s Ministry of Finance.

Together, the weak currency and extensive tax rebates capture the dilemma facing Chinese policymakers. Exports are one of the few bright spots in an economy weighed down by plunging apartment prices and weak consumer spending. Maintaining export momentum is important to Beijing’s goal of 4.5 percent to 5 percent economic growth. But supporting those exports carries high costs at home and abroad.

A weak renminbi raises the cost of oil and other imports, squeezing households already reluctant to spend. Export tax rebates drain government revenues when many local governments are struggling with the financial fallout from the housing downturn.

For China’s trading partners, Europe in particular, resentment has been building, prompting more protectionist policies.

“We need to rebalance our economic ties to ensure they are fair, sustainable and mutually beneficial — the current situation is unsustainable,” said Caspar Veldkamp, the European Union ambassador to China, in a speech on Sept. 22.

With China on track to match or exceed last year’s record global trade surplus of $1.19 trillion, allowing the renminbi to strengthen and reducing tax rebates could ease some pressure from overseas. But either step could also damage one of the economy’s few remaining engines of growth.

Some prominent Chinese economists have begun arguing that a stronger currency may benefit China by lowering the cost of oil and other imports priced in dollars. China’s central bank and state-owned banks intervene heavily in currency markets to set the renminbi's value, although market forces also play a role.

“We need to reassess the issue of exchange rates: An appreciation of the renminbi is not necessarily entirely negative, while depreciation may not effectively boost exports,” said Shen Guobing, an economics professor at Fudan University in Shanghai, in a speech last December.

(to be continued)

Translation

支撐中國出口熱潮的隱藏政策（1/2）

巨額稅收減免和疲軟的人民幣支撐著出口，擴大了政府預算赤字，並使中國經濟再平衡的努力更加複雜

中國透過稅務優惠和疲軟的人民幣，維持了出口引擎的強勁運轉，這不僅有助於維持國內經濟成長，也使大量中國商品湧入海外市場。

但這項策略正在加劇與貿易夥伴的緊張關係。本週，抵達北京的布魯塞爾官員準備就每天超過11億美元的歐洲對華貿易逆差問題向中國官員施壓。

歐洲領導人表示，中國透過政府補貼和低利率貸款向其製造商提供資金，使大量廉價商品湧入歐洲市場，從而扭曲了貿易平衡。

但補貼只是中國出口商享有的優勢之一。人民幣（中國貨幣）持續走弱，使得中國商品在海外更具價格優勢。同時，北京每年向出口商退還數千億美元的稅款，進一步降低了他們的成本。

這兩項政策都難以逆轉。

經通膨調整後，人民幣兌多種貨幣匯率較2022年初水準下跌超過14%。同期，中國的貿易順差幾乎翻了一番。人民幣疲軟固然有利於出口商，但也增加了中國消費者和企業購買外國商品的成本。

中國的出口退稅額也大幅增加。根據財政部數據顯示，去年出口企業獲得的增值稅退稅額高達3,182億美元，相當於中國經濟總量的1.5%。

人民幣疲軟和巨額退稅共同構成了中國決策者面臨的兩難。在房價暴跌和消費疲軟的雙重拖累下，出口成為中國經濟少數的亮點之一。維持出口動能對北京實現4.5%至5%的經濟成長目標至關重要。然而，支持出口需要付出高昂的國內外代價。

人民幣疲軟推高了石油和其他進口商品的價格，進一步擠壓了本已不願意消費的家庭。出口退稅政策也消耗了政府財政收入，而許多地方政府正努力應對房地產市場低迷帶來的財政衝擊。

對中國的貿易夥伴，尤其是歐洲而言，不滿情緒日益高漲，促使他們採取更多保護主義政策。

歐盟駐華大使Caspar Veldkamp在9月22日的演講中表示:「我們需要重新平衡經濟聯繫，確保其公平、可持續且互利共贏 - 目前的狀況是不可持續的」。

中國可望實現與去年創紀錄的1.19兆美元全球貿易順差持平或超過這一數字，允許人民幣升值並減少稅收優惠或許能夠緩解部分海外壓力。但這兩項措施都可能損害中國經濟為數不多的成長引擎之一。

一些中國知名經濟學家開始認為，人民幣升值或許能夠降低以美元計價的石油和其他進口商品的成本，使中國受益。儘管市場力量也發揮作用，但中國央行和國有銀行仍大力幹預外匯市場以決定人民幣匯率。

上海復旦大學經濟學教授Shen Guobing去年12月在一次演講中表示:「我們需要重新評估匯率問題：人民幣升值未必完全是壞事，而人民幣貶值也未必能有效提振出口」。

（待續）